It would be “risky” for the government to protect mortgage holders against rising interest rates, according to a former Bank of England deputy governor.
Speaking to Sophy Ridge on Sky News, Sir Charlie Bean said trying to help those paying off home loans could force the bank to raise the base rate even further.
Sir Charlie said: “There’s not a lot [government] can do to influence the overall macro environment in a favourable way.
“There may be things it wants to do to alleviate pain on particular parts of the population, poor households or whatever.
“There obviously have been some calls for protecting those with mortgages.
“I think that’s risky territory to get into because of course, if you do that and reduce the pressures on those with mortgages, that reduces the extent to which the economy slows and just means the bank has to raise interest rates even more.”
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An extended period of inflation led the Bank of England to raise interest rates, pushing up the cost of borrowing.
These increases are now expected to continue until the middle of next year, with the base rate forecast to peak at nearly 6%.
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Homeowners warned of mortgage pain
With an election expected in 2024, interest rates continuing to rise ahead of the vote would cause headaches for Rishi Sunak and campaigners for the Conservative Party.
The uncertainty has led to TSB pulling all its 10-year fixed-rate deals from the market – and Santander withdrew its offers for new borrowers this week.
Michael Gove, the housing secretary, was asked by Sophy Ridge whether he was “frightened” by the situation.
He said he was “concerned of course”, saying the government’s target of getting inflation down would allow the bank to reduce interest rates.
The cabinet minister revealed he does not have a mortgage, but acknowledged the situation is “very difficult for hundreds of thousands of people”.
He added: “As a minister who is responsible for housing, I do take a close interest in what’s happening in the mortgage market.
“It only reinforces the importance of doing everything else that we can to support homeowners and indeed, specifically, to help those in the rental sector as well who have faced the prospect of increasing rents and that’s why we are bringing forward legislation, the Private Rented Sector Reform Bill, in order to help them.”
The billis aimed at removing no-fault evictions and holding landlords to higher standards, while also allowing homeowners to have an easier time recovering properties from disruptive tenants.
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Sir Charlie admitted that his old employer was “a little behind the curve” in its actions – but added most of the inflationary pressure was coming from external factors like “the war in Ukraine, rising gas prices, global food prices, also supply chain pressures as economies reopened after the pandemic”.
BP has signalled an accelerated effort to bring down costs ahead, refusing to rule out further job losses as artificial intelligence (AI) technology helps drive efficiencies.
The company, which revealed in January that it was to axe almost 8,000 workers and contractors globally as part of a cost-cutting plan, said alongside its second quarter results that it was to review its portfolio of businesses and examine its cost base again.
BP is under pressure to grow profitability and investor value through a shareholder-driven refocus on oil and gas revenues.
Just 24 hours earlier, the company revealed progress through its largest oil and gas discovery, off Brazil’s east coast, this century.
BP said it was exploring the creation of production facilities at the site.
It has made nine other exploration discoveries this year.
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BP’s share price has lagged those of rivals for many years – a trend that investors have blamed on the now-abandoned shift to renewable energy that began under former boss Bernard Looney.
Image: BP boss Murray Auchincloss is facing shareholder pressure to grow profitability
His replacement, Murray Auchincloss, has reportedly come under shareholder pressure to slash costs further, with the Financial Times reporting on Monday that activist investor Elliott was leading that charge based on concerns over high contractor numbers.
Mr Auchincloss said on Tuesday that AI was playing a leading role in bolstering efficiency across the business.
In an interview with Sky’s US partner CNBC, he said: “We need to keep driving safely to be the very best in the sector we can be, and that’s why we’re focused on another review to try to drive us towards best in class… inside the sector, and technology plays a huge part in that.
“Just technology is moving so fast, we see tremendous opportunity in that space. So it’s good for all seasons to drive cost discipline and capital discipline into the business. And that’s what we’re focused on.”
When contacted by Sky News, a BP spokesperson suggested the company had no plans for further job losses this year and could not speculate beyond that ahead of the conclusions of the new cost review.
BP reported a second quarter underlying replacement cost profit of $2.4bn, down 14% on the same period last year but well ahead of analyst forecasts of $1.8bn. Much of the reduction was down to lower comparable oil and gas prices.
It moved to reward investors with a 4% dividend increase and maintained the pace of its share buyback programme at $750m for the quarter.
BP said it was making progress in driving shareholder value through both its operational return to oil and gas investment and cost reductions, which stood at $1.7bn over the six months.
Shares, up 3% over the year to date ahead of Tuesday’s open, were trading 2% higher in early dealing.
Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said of the company’s figures: “Production increases, strong results from trading activities, favourable tax rates, and better volumes and margins downstream all played their part.
“It’s also upping the ante when it comes to exploration and development, culminating in this week’s announcement of an oil find at the offshore Brazilian prospect Bumerangue.
“Its drilling rig intersected a staggering 500m of hydrocarbons. Taking into account the acreage of the block, it’s given BP the confidence to declare the largest discovery in 25 years.”
British Land, the FTSE 100 commercial property company, has hired lawyers to scrutinise rescue deals for the high street retailers Poundland and River Island.
Sky News has learnt that Hogan Lovells, the City law firm, has been instructed by British Land to seek further information on restructuring plans that the two chains say are necessary for their survival.
British Land owns 20 Poundland stores, 13 of which would see rents compromised under its restructuring plan, while it is River Island’s landlord at 22 shops – seven of which would be affected.
Retail industry sources said that British Land had already struck deals to re-let some of the affected Poundland sites.
The company, which has a market capitalisation of ? and is one of Britain’s biggest commercial landlords, is understood to have abstained on the River Island restructuring plan vote.
The appointment of Hogan Lovells does not amount to a decision to formally challenge the restructurings, but that remains an option in both cases, according to industry sources.
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Hogan Lovells has been engaged on a string of previous challenges to retailers’ rescue deals on the basis that they unfairly compromised property-owners.
About 20,000 jobs would potentially be put at risk if Poundland and River Island were to collapse altogether.
Both face sanctions hearings in court this month which will determine whether their rescue deals can go ahead.
Even if the proposals are rubber-stamped, about 100 stores in aggregate across the two chains will be permanently closed.
The FCA determined that Mr Woodford and the fund “made unreasonable and inappropriate investment decisions” between July 2018 and June 2019.
The fund’s sale of liquid assets and acquisition of illiquid ones meant WEI was unable to meet rules in place at the time, whereby investors should have been able to access their funds within four days.
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“WIM and Mr Woodford did not react appropriately as the fund’s value declined, its liquidity worsened and more investors withdrew their money,” the FCA said.
“The FCA has concluded that Mr Woodford held a defective and unreasonably narrow understanding of his responsibilities.”
Steve Smart, its joint executive director of enforcement and market oversight, added: “Being a leader in financial services comes with responsibilities as well as profile. Mr Woodford simply doesn’t accept he had any role in managing the liquidity of the fund.
“The very minimum investors should expect is those managing their money make sensible decisions and take their senior role seriously.
“Neither Neil Woodford nor Woodford Investment Management did so, putting at risk the money people had entrusted them with.”
Both Mr Woodford and WIM have referred the case to the Upper Tribunal for appeal.
He was yet to comment.
Mr Woodford was once considered the star stock picker of his generation.
He launched his own investment business after building up a reputation for delivering stellar returns while at Invesco Perpetual.
At its height in 2017, the Woodford Equity Income Fund had a value of over £10bn, but by the time of its suspension in June 2019, this had sunk to as low as £3.7bn.
While a redress scheme enabled investors to get some cash back, around 300,000 people lost money through the fund’s collapse.