Sir Keir Starmer positions himself as PM-in-waiting as psychodramas engulf Westminster and Holyrood
As the Conservatives in Westminster tied themselves in knots over whether to back the Privileges Committee condemnation of Boris Johnson and the SNP’s Humza Yousaf sought to revive independence plans with his party still in crisis, Sir Keir Starmer went to Leith in Scotland to set out his mission to turbo-charge renewable energy in the UK should he become PM.
His target is for Britain to produce all its electricity from low-carbon energy sources – nuclear, wind and solar – by 2030. To do it is a bold plan to borrow £100bn+ over the course of the next parliament to transition the country away from fossil fuels to green energy.
By far Labour’s single biggest spending commitment, the party had pledged to borrow £28bn-a-year to fund the flagship green transition programme, but has since scaled back borrowing plans amid growing concerns about taking on debt as the cost of borrowing rises on the back of higher interest rates.
Instead, Labour will gradually ramp up borrowing to that level in the “second half of the parliament” if it wins the next general election.
But the plan is still huge – undoubtedly the single most radical policy of Sir Keir’s Labour government should he win the next election. Labour’s green subsidies amount to more in relative terms than US President Joe Biden’s own green economy plan – the inflation reduction act – which has earmarked $37bn in subsidies.
The money will be used to launch a state-run company GB Energy to invest in renewables, with £2.5bn in direct subsidies to green energy providers who contract to manufacture in the UK – the ‘British jobs bonus’ as Sir Keir puts it. He says it will create nearly 500,000 new direct and indirect jobs.
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Starmer outlines energy plans
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The driving purpose of the plan is to drive down energy bills – with Labour claiming that it will take £1,400 off average bills if it can hit the 2030 target.
It is also about transforming the economy in order to better fund public services.
Sir Keir is clear that this is the sort of “activist industrial policy” Britain needs for the longer term, but for voters looking to Labour to commit money to schools, hospitals and transport in the next election, this could prove a hard sell with the amount Labour is willing to borrow to subsidise green technologies dwarfing other commitments for public services.
“We are going to put money into public services,” explains one senior Labour figure. “But we have to grow the economy as the first step. Being clear about stable finances and sticking to it is the best way to turnaround the country.”
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‘We are doubling down not backing off’
But while the level of borrowing has raised eyebrows, and afforded the Conservatives a “borrowing bombshell” attack line, the plans to block new oil and gas developments in the North Sea as part of the renewables revolution has provoked widespread criticism from industry and union figures fearful of widespread job losses.
Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, on Monday said Labour’s plans put “tens of thousands of Scottish jobs a risk”.
The criticisms have prompted another policy tweak as Sir Keir promised not to revoke any fossil fuel extraction licenses granted before the next general election, even though it could take years before those new fields begin producing.
This allows the Labour leader to insist existing jobs in oil and gas are not at risk, but there’s no doubt that as production is gradually wound down, this will be a momentous shift for a sector that supports nearly 200,000 jobs in the UK.
There is also the question of whether the Labour leader can actually deliver what he is pledging in this five years. Sir Dieter Helm, professor of economic policy at Oxford University, who has advised the government on energy policy over many years, said last week the goal was unlikely to succeed on the current trajectory.
When I pressed Sir Keir in an interview in Leith on Monday if the “clean power by 2030” pledge was a guarantee or a target he demurred, he said it was his “ambition” and he believed to be “doable”. Not an explicit guarantee then, and for good reason.
There is also a question about credibility and commitment after the Labour party U-turned on its promise to borrow £28bn-a-year from the beginning of the parliament in order to scale up renewable industry.
‘Doubling down’
The leadership has insisted it is still totally committed to the plan, but has had to scale back commitments in the near-to-medium term as the high cost of borrowing hits against Labour’s fiscal rules (no borrowing to fund day-to-day spending and net debt must be falling as a percentage of GDP at end of the rolling five-year period).
When I asked Sir Keir on Monday if the U-turn on the financial commitment in the first half of the parliament showed – as with Brexit, tuition fees, and re-nationalisations – that he can’t be trusted to keep his promises, he said it showed the opposite, that he was “doubling down” on the plan.
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Starmer hits out at ‘Tory crap’
“It is a matter of trust,” he told me.
“Rachel [Reeves] – we set out fiscal rules two or more years ago. Inflation is in a completely different place to where it was… but at the same time as we work through our plans and set out what we want to do in years one, two and three, it is clear we can ramp up to that £28bn and when I say to people in the sector, I want clean power by 2030, they don’t say you’re backing down, they say that’s a real challenge.”
On the timing of this announcement, there is of course a risk that Sir Keir’s missions get drowned out by the dramas back in Westminster. There was some discussion about whether to pull the announcement, but in the end Sir Keir decided that he wanted to get on talking about how he might lead Britain than, to quote one ally, get “bogged down in the psychodrama” of what’s going on in Westminster.
“Doesn’t it speak volumes that the Labour Party is today launching a plan for the next generation of jobs, whilst the Tories are squabbling back in Westminster, and the SNP are preaching about promises they’ve broken?” observed the Labour leader when I asked him about the current state of his rivals.
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Sir Keir wants to use these “mission statements” to position himself as a leader-in-waiting as the current prime minister Rishi Sunak finds his agenda hijacked by the failings of his predecessor and party infighting once more.
But the agenda on Monday is very much about parking Labour’s tanks on the SNP’s lawns too, given that there is no route to Number 10 for Sir Keir that doesn’t go through Scotland. Locating GB Energy in Scotland is designed to firmly park his tanks on the SNP’s lawn.
A poll out over the weekend suggested Labour was on course to take 26 seats in the next general election – an incredible change in fortunes from the single seat it picked up in 2019 – as the departure of Nicola Sturgeon and her subsequent arrest (she was released without charge) over the police probe into SNP finance leaves the party battered and bruised.
“Nicola Sturgeon not being first minister obviously provides a space and an opportunity that simply wasn’t there before,” acknowledges one senior figure.
“But there’s no rule that anybody disillusioned with either the Tories or the SNP necessarily swaps columns to us. Anyone who thinks we can flatline is heading for defeat at the next election. We’ve got to go up at the end, which is why we’re going to continue in this way.”
US president-elect Donald Trump has suggested Israel and Hamas could agree a Gaza ceasefire by the end of the week.
Talks between Israeli and Hamas representatives resumed in the Qatari capital Doha yesterday, after US President Joe Biden indicated a deal to stop the fighting was “on the brink” on Monday.
A draft agreement has been sent to both sides. It includes provisions for the release of hostages and a phased Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza.
Qatar says Israel and Hamas are at their “closest point” yet to a ceasefire deal.
Two Hamas officials said the group has accepted the draft agreement, with Israel still considering the deal.
An Israeli official said a deal is close but “we are not there” yet.
More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its ground offensive in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.
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What’s in the proposed deal?
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on beachfront cafe in Deir al Balah. Pic: Reuters
Biden hails possibility of agreement
President Biden said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians, in his final foreign policy speech as president.
“So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. Palestinian people deserve peace,” he said.
“The deal would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”
Qatari mediators have sent Israel and Hamas a draft proposal for an agreement to halt the fighting.
Analysis:
Deal might be close, but there are many unanswered questions
Pic: Reuters
Trump: ‘We’re very close’
President-elect Donald Trump has also discussed a possible peace deal during a phone interview with the Newsmax channel.
“We’re very close to getting it done and they have to get it done,” he said.
“If they don’t get it done, there’s going to be a lot of trouble out there, a lot of trouble, like they have never seen before.
“And they will get it done. And I understand there’s been a handshake and they’re getting it finished and maybe by the end of the week. But it has to take place, it has to take place.”
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Israeli official: Former Hamas leader held up deal
Speaking on Tuesday as negotiations resumed in Qatar, an anonymous Israeli official said that an agreement was “close, but we are not there”.
They accused Hamas of previously “dictating, not negotiating” but said this has changed in the last few weeks.
“Yahya Sinwar was the main obstacle for a deal,” they added.
Sinwar, believed to be the mastermind of the 7 October attacks, led Hamas following the assassination of his predecessor but was himself killed in October last year.
Under Sinwar, the Israeli official claimed, Hamas was “not in a rush” to bring a hostage deal but this has changed since his death and since the IDF “started to dismantle the Shia axis”.
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Biden: ‘Never, never, never, ever give up’
Iran ‘weaker than it’s been in decades’
Yesterday, President Biden also hailed Washington’s support for Israel during two Iranian attacks in 2024.
“All told, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades,” the president said.
Mr Biden claimed America’s adversaries were weaker than when he took office four years ago and that the US was “winning the worldwide competition”.
“Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are
weaker,” he said.
“We have not gone to war to make these things happen.”
The US president is expected to give a farewell address on Wednesday.
A draft ceasefire deal on the table between Israel and Hamas would see 33 hostages set free and a phased withdrawal of IDF forces from parts of Gaza.
President Joe Biden said an agreement to stop the fighting was “on the brink” and high level negotiations between the two sides resumed in Qatar on Tuesday.
The deal would see a number of things happen in a first stage, with negotiations for the second stage beginning in the third week of the ceasefire.
It would also allow a surge in humanitarian aid into Gaza, which has been devastated by more than a year of war.
Details of what the draft proposal entails have been emerging on Tuesday, reported by Israeli and Palestinian officials.
Relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages hold photos of their loved ones during a protest on 8 January. Pic: AP
Hostages to be returned
In the first stage of the potential ceasefire, 33 hostages would be set free.
These include women (including female soldiers), children, men over the age of 50, wounded and sick.
Israel believes most of these hostages are alive but there has not been any official confirmation from Hamas.
In return for the release of the hostages, Israel would free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
People serving long sentences for deadly attacks would be included in this but Hamas fighters who took part in the 7 October attack would not be released.
An arrangement to prevent Palestinian “terrorists” from going back to the West Bank would be included in the deal, an anonymous Israeli official said.
Read more:
A timeline of events since the 7 October attacks
The hostages who still haven’t returned home
Smoke billows as buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
The agreement also includes a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, with IDF troops remaining in the border perimeter to defend Israeli border towns and villages.
Security arrangements would be implemented at the Philadelphi corridor – a narrow strip of land that runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza – with Israel withdrawing from parts of it after the first few days of the deal.
The Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza would start to work gradually to allow the crossing of people who are sick and other humanitarian cases out of Gaza for treatment.
Unarmed North Gaza residents would be allowed to return to their homes, with a mechanism introduced to ensure no weapons are moved there.
“We will not leave the Gaza Strip until all our hostages are back home,” the Israeli official said.
What will happen to Gaza in the future?
There is less detail about the future of Gaza – from how it will be governed, to any guarantees that this agreement will bring a permanent end to the war.
“The only thing that can answer for now is that we are ready for a ceasefire,” the Israeli official said.
“This is a long ceasefire and the deal that is being discussed right now is for a long one. There is a big price for releasing the hostages and we are ready to pay this price.”
The international community has said Gaza must be run by Palestinians, but there has not been a consensus about how this should be done – and the draft ceasefire agreement does not seem to address this either.
In the past, Israel has said it will not end the war leaving Hamas in power. It also previously rejected the possibility of the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited governing powers in the West Bank, from taking over the administration of Gaza.
Since the beginning of its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has also said it would retain security control over the territory after the fighting ends.
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