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Not good.

Not good at all.

The last few months of inflation data have had a dreary and repetitive rhythm to them.

Economists predict the rate at which prices are rising will finally begin to fall, and fast. Then the official data comes in and it turns out prices are not falling as fast as predicted. And then everyone gets depressed.

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That pattern repeated itself today.

Economists thought the headline inflation rate – the consumer price index annual rate – would drop in May from 8.7% to 8.4%. Instead, it stayed precisely where it was in April.

Even worse, the core rate of inflation, which is what you’re left with when you strip out volatile stuff like fuel and food, actually rose from 6.8% to 7.1%.

This will all unnerve an already nervous Bank of England.

It pays more attention to these underlying adjusted measures, which give you more of a sense of whether price rises are becoming embedded in the economy.

And all the signs suggest that that is precisely what is happening: what began as a rise in one-off, explicable prices seems to be turning into a stickier phenomenon.

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While it’s possible that prices fall sharply later on this year, that likelihood diminishes with every month that core inflation remains so high.

There are a few obvious consequences.

The first is that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will certainly raise interest rates again in the coming months, putting further pressure on mortgage borrowers.

A couple of months ago those bank rates were expected to peak at around 5%. Now they are expected to hit 6%.

This will be very painful for households with mortgages and may have a bearing both on the housing market and the wider economy.

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However those who’ve paid off their mortgages and are net savers will see an increase in their fortunes (though banks are always slower to pass on savings rates than to put up borrowing rates).

The other consequence is political.

Higher inflation and mortgage rates are likely to be one of the big factors in the coming election.

The prime minister pledged earlier this year to halve inflation. That pledge now looks far less likely than it did back in January.

He also pledged to keep the economy growing but despite having avoided recession thus far, higher interest rates will possibly depress UK gross domestic product, which is barely flatlining at present.

In short, these figures are not good for the Bank of England and, in their separate way, not good for the prime minister and chancellor.

Many years ago, a famous German economist once described inflation as being a little toothpaste: very easy to squeeze out of the tube; very hard to put back into the tube.

We are being reminded of just how right he was.

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Parents must not pay mandatory extra charges to access free childcare, government says

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Parents must not pay mandatory extra charges to access free childcare, government says

Parents who are entitled to hours of free childcare should not have to pay mandatory extra charges to secure their nursery place, the government has said.

Updated guidance from the Department for Education states that while nurseries are entitled to ask parents to pay for extras – including meals, snacks, nappies or sun cream – these charges must be voluntary rather than mandatory.

The guidance, which comes amid concerns that parents have faced high additional charges on top of the funded hours, also states that local councils should intervene if a childcare provider seeks to make additional charges a condition for parents accessing their hours.

Since September last year, parents and carers with children aged nine months and older have been entitled to 15 hours of government-funded childcare a week, rising to 30 hours for three to four year-olds.

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From this September, the 30 hours of care will be made available to all families – a rollout that was first introduced under the previous Conservative government.

However, there have been concerns that in order to subsidise shortfalls in funding, nurseries have charged parents extra for essentials that would normally have been included in fees.

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Under the new guidance, nurseries will be now obliged to clearly set out any additional costs parents will have to pay, including on their websites.

It says invoices should be itemised so parents can see a breakdown of the free entitlement hours, additional private paid hours and all the additional charges.

‘Fundamental financial challenges facing the sector’

Representatives of childcare providers welcomed the announcement but pointed out the financial stress that many nurseries were under.

Neil Leitch, chief executive of the Early Years Alliance, said: “While we fully agree that families should be able to access early entitlement hours without incurring additional costs, in reality, years of underfunding have made it impossible for the vast majority of settings to keep their doors open without relying on some form of additional fees or charges.

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Free childcare in England

“As such, while it is absolutely right that providers should be transparent with parents on any optional additional fees, today’s guidance does absolutely nothing to address – or even acknowledge – the fundamental financial challenges facing the sector.”

He added: “Given that from September, government will control the price of around 80% of early years provision, it has never been more important for that funding to genuinely reflect the true cost of delivering places.

“And yet we know in many areas, this year’s rate increases won’t come close to mitigating the impact April’s National Insurance and wage rises, meaning that costs for both providers and families are likely to spiral.”

In last year’s budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that the amount businesses will pay on their employees’ national insurance contributions will increase from 13.8% to 15% from April this year.

She also lowered the current £9,100 threshold employers start paying national insurance on employees’ earnings to £5,000, in what she called a “difficult choice” to make.

Last month a survey from the National Day Nurseries Association (NDNA) found that cost increases from April will force nurseries to raise fees by an average of 10%.

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This could be welcome news for working parents as they approach the end of another half term break during which they will have incurred childcare costs.

But this money would not affect school age children.

It is dedicated to very young children, aged two or below and is targeting parents, predominantly mothers, that want to return to work.

Previously after doing the sums and factoring in childcare costs, many mums would have felt that it wasn’t worth it.

And so, if these funds are easily accessible on a local level it could make a real difference to those wanting to get back to work.

The survey, covering nurseries in England, revealed that staffing costs will increase by an average of 15%, with respondents saying that more than half of the increase was due to the national insurance decision in the budget.

Purnima Tanuku CBE, chief executive of the NDNA, said “taking away the flexibility for providers around charges could seriously threaten sustainability”.

“The funding government pays to providers has never been about paying for meals, snacks or consumables, it is to provide early education and care,” she said.

“Childcare places have historically been underfunded with the gap widening year on year.

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Parents ‘frustrated’ over rising childcare demand

“From April, the operating costs for the average nursery will go up by around £47,000 once statutory minimum wages and changes to national insurance contributions are implemented. NIC changes have not been factored into the latest funding rates, further widening the underfunding gap.”

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The Department for Education said its offer to parents meant they could save up to £7,500 on average when using the full 30 hours a week of government-funded childcare support, compared to if they were paying for it themselves.

In December, the government also announced that a £75m expansion grant would be distributed to nurseries and childminders to help increase places ahead of the full rollout of funded childcare. 

Local authority allocations for the expansion grant will be confirmed before the end of February. Some of the largest areas could be provided with funding of up to £2.1m.

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Surprise boost for shops as sales growth exceeds expectations with biggest food rise in 5 years

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Surprise boost for shops as sales growth exceeds expectations with biggest food rise in 5 years

Shops were given a surprisingly big boost in January as official figures showed retail sales rose by 1.7%.

Only a 0.3% rise had been forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

It’s the first growth since August and follows a fall of 0.6% in the key shopping month of December, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures.

Not since May has there been a rise this large.

The December drop was even larger than first thought. Initially, only a 0.3% contraction was recorded by the ONS.

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The large rise in January came as food shop sales rose 5.6% – the greatest amount since March 2020 when COVID-19 lockdowns began.

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Shops across the food and drink sector benefitted, the ONS said, as supermarkets, alcohol and tobacco stores plus specialist shops like butchers and bakers all reported strong trading.

Retail sales figures are significant as they measure household consumption, the largest expenditure across the UK economy.

Growing retail sales can mean economic growth, which the government has repeatedly said is its top priority.

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Combined with other data released on Friday showing improved consumer sentiment the figures show a strengthening economy.

Wage rises and interest rate cuts helped to raise the longstanding consumer confidence measure by market research company GFK.

This increase had also not been expected by economists.

“The biggest improvement is in how consumers see their personal finances for the coming year with an increase of four points that takes this measure out of negative territory”, said Neil Bellamy the consumer insights director at NIQ GfK.

“The rate cut will have brightened the mood for some people, but the majority are still struggling with a cost-of-living crisis that is far from over.”

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Nigel Farage relinquishes majority control of Reform UK

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Nigel Farage relinquishes majority control of Reform UK

Nigel Farage has given up sole control of Reform UK, with the party’s members now being “handed over ownership” following a vote last year, according to its chairman.

The party, led by Mr Farage, was previously controlled by the Clacton MP as he held a majority of shares in the company.

According to the party’s new constitution, a board will instead be set up that will lead and direct the party, with members voting in an advisory manner on policies at the annual conference.

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Members also have the power to call an “extraordinary general meeting”, and launch no-confidence motions in the party leader.

In a statement, Reform chairman Zia Yusuf said: “We are pleased to announce that, as promised, Nigel Farage has handed over ownership of Reform UK to its members.

“Reform UK is now a non-profit, with no shareholders, limited by guarantee.

“We are assembling the governing board, in line with the constitution.

“This was an important step in professionalising the party.

“We will soon have more exciting announcements about Reform UK as we prepare for government.”

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Documents filed with Companies House show that all shareholders in Reform UK Party Limited have given up their shares and control of the organisation.

Instead, a limited company called Reform 2025 Ltd is listed as being in control of the party.

Reform 2025 Ltd has two directors – Mr Farage and Mr Yusuf – but no shareholders or persons with significant control.

It is understood this is because the membership is said to be in control.

This appears to put it in a similar structure to the Labour Party, while the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats appear to have controlling leaders or chairs.

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According to the party’s website, Reform UK have more than 211,000 members – close to double the Conservative membership.

Mr Farage says he wants to overtake Labour, which has around 309,000 members.

The party won five seats at the last general election off the back of 4.1 million votes. For comparison, the Liberal Democrats won 72 seats off the back of 3.5 million votes.

This discrepancy is largely down to seats votes are concentrated in.

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Recent polling has shown that Reform are seen as stronger than Labour on a range of topics among voters, including trustworthiness, strength, and “clear sense of purpose”.

Earlier in February, the party also topped a voter intention poll for the first time.

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