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Not good.

Not good at all.

The last few months of inflation data have had a dreary and repetitive rhythm to them.

Economists predict the rate at which prices are rising will finally begin to fall, and fast. Then the official data comes in and it turns out prices are not falling as fast as predicted. And then everyone gets depressed.

Spending calculator: See which prices have gone up or down

That pattern repeated itself today.

Economists thought the headline inflation rate – the consumer price index annual rate – would drop in May from 8.7% to 8.4%. Instead, it stayed precisely where it was in April.

Even worse, the core rate of inflation, which is what you’re left with when you strip out volatile stuff like fuel and food, actually rose from 6.8% to 7.1%.

This will all unnerve an already nervous Bank of England.

It pays more attention to these underlying adjusted measures, which give you more of a sense of whether price rises are becoming embedded in the economy.

And all the signs suggest that that is precisely what is happening: what began as a rise in one-off, explicable prices seems to be turning into a stickier phenomenon.

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While it’s possible that prices fall sharply later on this year, that likelihood diminishes with every month that core inflation remains so high.

There are a few obvious consequences.

The first is that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will certainly raise interest rates again in the coming months, putting further pressure on mortgage borrowers.

A couple of months ago those bank rates were expected to peak at around 5%. Now they are expected to hit 6%.

This will be very painful for households with mortgages and may have a bearing both on the housing market and the wider economy.

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However those who’ve paid off their mortgages and are net savers will see an increase in their fortunes (though banks are always slower to pass on savings rates than to put up borrowing rates).

The other consequence is political.

Higher inflation and mortgage rates are likely to be one of the big factors in the coming election.

The prime minister pledged earlier this year to halve inflation. That pledge now looks far less likely than it did back in January.

He also pledged to keep the economy growing but despite having avoided recession thus far, higher interest rates will possibly depress UK gross domestic product, which is barely flatlining at present.

In short, these figures are not good for the Bank of England and, in their separate way, not good for the prime minister and chancellor.

Many years ago, a famous German economist once described inflation as being a little toothpaste: very easy to squeeze out of the tube; very hard to put back into the tube.

We are being reminded of just how right he was.

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Jaguar Land Rover cyberattack pushes overall UK car production down more than a quarter

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 Jaguar Land Rover cyberattack pushes overall UK car production down more than a quarter

UK car production fell by more than a quarter (27.1%) last month as a cyberattack at Jaguar Land Rover halted manufacturing at the plant, industry figures show.

The total number of vehicles coming off assembly lines – including cars and vans – fell an even sharper 35.9%, according to September data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

“Largely responsible” for the drop was the five-week pause in production at Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) due to a malicious cyber attack, as other car makers reported growth.

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JLR’s assembly lines in the West Midlands and Halewood on Merseyside were paused from late August to early October as a result.

During this time, not a single vehicle was made. Production has since restarted, but the attack is believed to have been the “most financially damaging” in UK history at an estimated cost of £1.9bn, according to the security body the Cyber Monitoring Centre.

It was the lowest number of cars made in any September in the UK since 1952, including during the COVID-19 lockdown.

More on Cyber Attacks

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Are we in a cyber attack ‘epidemic’?

Despite the restart, the sector remains “under immense pressure”, the SMMT’s chief executive Mike Hawes said.

The phased restart of operations led to a small boost in manufacturing output this month, according to a closely watched survey.

Of the cars that were made, nearly half (47.8%) were battery electric, plug-in hybrid or hybrid.

The vast majority, 76% of the total vehicles output, were made for export.

The top destinations are the European Union, US, Turkey, Japan and South Korea.

JLR was just the latest business to be the subject of a cyberattack.

Harrods, the Co-Op, and Marks and Spencer, are among the companies that have struggled in the past year with such attacks.

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English Championship side Sheffield Wednesday file for administration

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English Championship side Sheffield Wednesday file for administration

Championship club Sheffield Wednesday have filed for administration, according to a court filing, which will result in the already struggling side being hit with a 12-point deduction.

The South Yorkshire club currently sit bottom of the Championship, the second tier of English football, with just six points from 11 games.

Known as The Owls, Wednesday are one of the oldest surviving clubs in world football, with more than 150 years of history.

Court records confirm the club have filed for administration. A notice was filed at a specialist court at 10.01am.

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Sky’s Rob Harris reports on the news that Sheffield Wednesday have filed for administration

What has happened?

The Owls, who host Oxford United on Saturday, have been in turmoil for a long time.

On 3 June, owner Dejphon Chansiri, a Thai canned fish magnate who took over the club in 2015, was charged with breaching EFL regulations regarding payment obligations.

Sheffield Wednesday fans protest the ownership at a game away to Leeds United in January. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Sheffield Wednesday fans protest the ownership at a game away to Leeds United in January. Pic: Reuters

Weeks later, Mr Chansiri said he was willing to sell the club in a statement on their official website.

Sheffield Wednesday's troubles have sparked furious protests from fans. Pic: PA
Image:
Sheffield Wednesday’s troubles have sparked furious protests from fans. Pic: PA

Their crisis deepened just days later when another embargo was imposed on the club relating to payments owed to HMRC, before players and staff were not paid on time on 30 June.

In the months that followed, forwards Josh Windass and Michael Smith left the club by mutual consent. Manager Danny Rohl, now at Rangers, also left by mutual consent.

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Frustrated Sheffield Wednesday supporters have targeted their embattled club’s owner in a highly-visible protest during their opening match of the season.

The Owls were forced to close the 9,255-capacity North Stand at Hillsborough after a Prohibition Notice was issued by Sheffield City Council.

‘Current uncertainty’

On 6 August, the EFL released a statement, saying: “We are clear that the current owner needs either to fund the club to meet its obligations or make good on his commitment to sell to a well-funded party, for fair market value – ending the current uncertainty and impasse.”

On 13 August, the Prohibition Notice was lifted, but a month later, news emerged of a winding-up petition over £1m owed to HMRC.

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Last season, Wednesday finished 12th. They had already been placed under registration embargoes in the last two seasons after being hit by a six-point deduction during the 2020/21 campaign, for breaching profit and sustainability rules.

With a 12-point deduction, the Owls would be 15 points away from safety in the Championship.

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Retail sales the highest in three years in a surprise to economists

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Retail sales the highest in three years in a surprise to economists

Retail sales are at the highest level in more than three years, in the latest measure of the UK economy to confound economists.

The amounts bought in shops rose 0.5% in September, far above the 0.2% contraction anticipated by economists polled by Reuters.

It was the fourth monthly rise in a row and brought volumes to their highest level since July 2022.

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Doing well were computer and telecommunications retailers as the iPhone 17 launched in the month, while online jewellers reported strong demand for gold despite the price hovering around record highs.

Gold has been in demand, and in recent days reached a record high, as some investors moved money out of the US dollar and government bonds amid the ongoing government shutdown.

It came despite a rainy month – which typically keeps shoppers at home – and a five-day tube strike in London.

The impact of the rain could be seen, however, in the boost to online spending, which rose to one of the highest levels since the end of the pandemic.

A fall was recorded in food shop sales from August to September, signalling a response to high food price inflation.

A good week for the economy?

Retail sales figures are significant as they measure household consumption, the largest expenditure in the UK economy.

Growing retail sales can mean economic growth, which the government has repeatedly said is its top priority.

Earlier this week, another key economic measure came in better than expected.

Inflation remained at 3.8% rather than rising to the widely expected 4% – double the target rate set by the interest rate-setters at the Bank of England.

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Post Office compensation ‘worse than original injustice’

Consumers were feeling better about their finances, a closely watched measure of consumer confidence showed on Friday.

Buying sentiment is up from last month, according to market research company GFK, as intentions to buy big-ticket items like electrical goods and furniture rose.

Combined, it suggests people are not feeling too gloomy in the run-up to the November budget.

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