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Not good.

Not good at all.

The last few months of inflation data have had a dreary and repetitive rhythm to them.

Economists predict the rate at which prices are rising will finally begin to fall, and fast. Then the official data comes in and it turns out prices are not falling as fast as predicted. And then everyone gets depressed.

Spending calculator: See which prices have gone up or down

That pattern repeated itself today.

Economists thought the headline inflation rate – the consumer price index annual rate – would drop in May from 8.7% to 8.4%. Instead, it stayed precisely where it was in April.

Even worse, the core rate of inflation, which is what you’re left with when you strip out volatile stuff like fuel and food, actually rose from 6.8% to 7.1%.

This will all unnerve an already nervous Bank of England.

It pays more attention to these underlying adjusted measures, which give you more of a sense of whether price rises are becoming embedded in the economy.

And all the signs suggest that that is precisely what is happening: what began as a rise in one-off, explicable prices seems to be turning into a stickier phenomenon.

Read more:
No decrease in inflation as it remains at 8.7%
Jeremy Hunt rules out mortgage support and capping food prices

While it’s possible that prices fall sharply later on this year, that likelihood diminishes with every month that core inflation remains so high.

There are a few obvious consequences.

The first is that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will certainly raise interest rates again in the coming months, putting further pressure on mortgage borrowers.

A couple of months ago those bank rates were expected to peak at around 5%. Now they are expected to hit 6%.

This will be very painful for households with mortgages and may have a bearing both on the housing market and the wider economy.

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However those who’ve paid off their mortgages and are net savers will see an increase in their fortunes (though banks are always slower to pass on savings rates than to put up borrowing rates).

The other consequence is political.

Higher inflation and mortgage rates are likely to be one of the big factors in the coming election.

The prime minister pledged earlier this year to halve inflation. That pledge now looks far less likely than it did back in January.

He also pledged to keep the economy growing but despite having avoided recession thus far, higher interest rates will possibly depress UK gross domestic product, which is barely flatlining at present.

In short, these figures are not good for the Bank of England and, in their separate way, not good for the prime minister and chancellor.

Many years ago, a famous German economist once described inflation as being a little toothpaste: very easy to squeeze out of the tube; very hard to put back into the tube.

We are being reminded of just how right he was.

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Energy group Ovo plots sale of stake in software arm Kaluza

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Energy group Ovo plots sale of stake in software arm Kaluza

The energy supplier Ovo is plotting the sale of a stake in its software arm at a ‘unicorn’ valuation as part of efforts to strengthen the balance sheet of Britain’s fourth-largest residential gas and electricity group.

Sky News has learnt that Ovo, which has just under 4m retail customers, has appointed Arma Partners, the investment bank, to explore options for Kaluza.

It replicates a move by larger rival Octopus Energy – revealed by Sky News – to hire advisers to work on a demerger of its Kraken software arm at a potential valuation of well over $10bn (£7.4bn).

Kaluza, which describes itself as an energy intelligence platform and this week announced a licensing partnership with the French-based energy group Engie, is 80%-owned by Ovo.

The remaining 20% is owned by AGL, an Australian energy company which bought a stake last year in a deal valuing Kaluza at $500m (£395m).

Industry sources said that Ovo was likely to seek a valuation for Kaluza in any new transaction of well over $1bn, although they added that there were questions about the software business’s path to sustainable profitability and its pipeline of new customers.

One analyst suggested that Kaluza’s majority-owner could pitch a valuation for Kaluza – run by chief executive Melissa Gander – of as much as $2.5bn based on annual recurring revenue (ARR).

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Kaluza recently bought Beige Technologies, an Australian energy software specialist, in order to strengthen its presence in the Asia-Pacific region.

The prospective Kaluza stake sale comes amid a wider effort by Ovo to bolster its financial position.

Rothschild, the investment bank, has been orchestrating talks with potential investors about a plan to inject in the region of £300m into the company.

At one point, this is understood to have included discussions with Iberdrola, the owner of rival supplier Scottish Power.

Centrica, the owner of British Gas, may also have expressed an interest in examining a deal, according to banking sources.

A deal with another third party is said to be likely before the end of the year.

On Friday, Sky News revealed that the company – like Octopus Energy – had so far failed to meet targets imposed as part of a new capital adequacy regime overseen by Ofgem, the industry regulator.

A spokesperson for Ovo said it had “taken proactive measures to align with Ofgem’s new capital rules, working constructively to meet the requirements.”

Ovo recently named Dame Jayne-Anne Gadhia, the former boss of Virgin Money, as the independent chair of its retail arm.

Founded by Stephen Fitzpatrick, the entrepreneur who now owns London’s Kensington Roof Gardens, Ovo’s existing shareholders include the private equity firm Mayfair Equity Partners, Morgan Stanley Investment Management and Mitsubishi Corporation, the Japanese conglomerate.

Under Mr Fitzpatrick, who launched Ovo in 2009, the company positioned itself as a challenger brand offering superior service to the industry’s established players.

Ovo’s transformational moment came in 2020, when it bought the retail supply arm of SSE, transforming it overnight into one of Britain’s leading energy companies.

Its growth has not been without difficulties, however, particularly in relation to its challenged relationship with Ofgem and a torrent of customer complaints about overcharging.

The group is now run by David Buttress, who was briefly Boris Johnson’s cost-of-living tsar after leaving the top job at Just Eat, as its chief executive.

Kaluza declined to comment on the appointment of Arma Partners.

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Harrods customers’ details stolen in IT systems breach

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Harrods customers' details stolen in IT systems breach

Harrods has warned its e-commerce customers that their personal data may have been taken in an IT systems breach.

Information like customers’ names and contact details was taken after one of Harrods’ third-party provider systems was compromised, the luxury London department store said.

Affected customers have been informed and reassured that the impacted data is “limited to basic personal identifiers”, a spokesperson said.

Account passwords or payment details were not affected in the breach.

“The third party has confirmed this is an isolated incident which has been contained, and we are working closely with them to ensure that all appropriate actions are being taken. We have notified all relevant authorities,” Harrods added.

“No Harrods system has been compromised and it is important to note that the data was taken from a third-party provider.”

This comes four months after the department store restricted internet access as a precautionary measure due to “attempts to gain unauthorised access” to some of its systems.

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Friday’s breach is “unconnected” to the attempts in May, the spokesman said.

Two men aged 19, a 17-year-old boy and a 20-year-old woman were arrested in July over their suspected involvement in cyber attacks on Harrods, Marks & Spencer, and the Co-op.

Read more from Sky News:
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Teenagers charged over TfL cyber attack costing millions

They were arrested on suspicion of blackmail, money laundering, offences linked ot the Computer Misuse Act, and participating in the activities of an organised crime group, the National Crime Agency said.

All four have been bailed pending further inquiries.

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Nursery hackers: ‘There’s more to come’

It comes as hackers claim to have stolen pictures, names and addresses of thousands of children in a cyber attack on a nursery chain in London.

The group, calling itself Radiant, has released personal information about children and staff at the Kido nursery chain on the dark web and demanded a ransom from the company.

Radiant told Sky News on Friday it intends to imminently release the profiles of more children and employees.

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Trump trade war expands to cover many drugs, trucks and furniture

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Trump trade war expands to cover many drugs, trucks and furniture

Donald Trump has revealed a fresh round of trade tariffs on several key sectors, with the most punitive rate likely to affect UK businesses.

The US president used his Truth Social account last night to confirm that a new 100% tariff would apply to any branded or patented pharmaceutical product from 1 October.

He said that to escape the clutches of that duty, a company must have already broken ground on a new US factory.

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From the same date, a 50% tariff would be applied to all imported kitchen and bathroom cabinets while upholstered furniture faced a 30% rate.

A 25% tariff faced shipments of heavy trucks.

The president did not confirm whether the duties would be lower for nations to have agreed trade deals with his administration, including the UK and European Union.

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Each faces a blanket 10% and 15% rate on their exports respectively at the moment.

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What does UK-US trade deal involve?

It is likely, however, that the new duties will be applied in line with other, higher, sectoral tariffs that are currently in place above those agreed rates.

“The reason for this is the large scale “FLOODING” of these products into the United States by other outside Countries,” Trump said in his post.

The lack of detail around the application of the planned new tariff rules means further uncertainty for companies potentially affected.

Shares in pharmaceutical firms listed in Asia fell sharply overnight as industry bodies rushed to seek clarification on the new rules.

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Will trade deal with Trump cost UK green jobs?

AstraZeneca – the UK’s most valuable listed company – already has vast US manufacturing and research operations.

In July, as the threat of tariffs loomed large, it revealed plans for a further $50bn investment by 2030.

US figures show the country imported $233bn of drugs and medicines from abroad last year.

A 100% tariff rate, even on some of those shipments, risk ramping up the cost of US healthcare.

By imposing the 100% tariff rate, Mr Trump wants to bring prices down through encouraging domestic production.

US industry groups lined up to oppose the planned measures.

The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America said non-US companies were continuing to announce hundreds of billions of dollars in new US. investments. “Tariffs risk those plans,” it said.

The US Chamber of Commerce urged a U-turn on any truck tariffs.

It said the five nations to be worst affected – Mexico, Canada, Japan, Germany, and Finland – were “allies or close partners of the United States posing no threat to US national security.”.

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