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Not good.

Not good at all.

The last few months of inflation data have had a dreary and repetitive rhythm to them.

Economists predict the rate at which prices are rising will finally begin to fall, and fast. Then the official data comes in and it turns out prices are not falling as fast as predicted. And then everyone gets depressed.

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That pattern repeated itself today.

Economists thought the headline inflation rate – the consumer price index annual rate – would drop in May from 8.7% to 8.4%. Instead, it stayed precisely where it was in April.

Even worse, the core rate of inflation, which is what you’re left with when you strip out volatile stuff like fuel and food, actually rose from 6.8% to 7.1%.

This will all unnerve an already nervous Bank of England.

It pays more attention to these underlying adjusted measures, which give you more of a sense of whether price rises are becoming embedded in the economy.

And all the signs suggest that that is precisely what is happening: what began as a rise in one-off, explicable prices seems to be turning into a stickier phenomenon.

Read more:
No decrease in inflation as it remains at 8.7%
Jeremy Hunt rules out mortgage support and capping food prices

While it’s possible that prices fall sharply later on this year, that likelihood diminishes with every month that core inflation remains so high.

There are a few obvious consequences.

The first is that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will certainly raise interest rates again in the coming months, putting further pressure on mortgage borrowers.

A couple of months ago those bank rates were expected to peak at around 5%. Now they are expected to hit 6%.

This will be very painful for households with mortgages and may have a bearing both on the housing market and the wider economy.

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However those who’ve paid off their mortgages and are net savers will see an increase in their fortunes (though banks are always slower to pass on savings rates than to put up borrowing rates).

The other consequence is political.

Higher inflation and mortgage rates are likely to be one of the big factors in the coming election.

The prime minister pledged earlier this year to halve inflation. That pledge now looks far less likely than it did back in January.

He also pledged to keep the economy growing but despite having avoided recession thus far, higher interest rates will possibly depress UK gross domestic product, which is barely flatlining at present.

In short, these figures are not good for the Bank of England and, in their separate way, not good for the prime minister and chancellor.

Many years ago, a famous German economist once described inflation as being a little toothpaste: very easy to squeeze out of the tube; very hard to put back into the tube.

We are being reminded of just how right he was.

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Eco-tycoon Vince weighs sale of solar energy project

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Eco-tycoon Vince weighs sale of solar energy project

The energy group founded by Dale Vince, the eco-tycoon, is kicking off a hunt for investors in a solar park which is expected to become one of Britain’s biggest renewable energy projects.

Sky News understands that Ecotricity, Mr Vince’s company, has hired KPMG to explore talks with prospective investors or buyers for the project at Heckington Fen in Lincolnshire.

The development was approved by Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, earlier this year, and when completed it is expected to generate roughly 600MW of solar power.

It has been designated a Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project by the government.

Heckington Fen will also provide 400MW of battery storage capacity.

According to documents circulated to potential bidders, Ecotricity is prioritising the sale of 100% of the project, but is open to retaining a minority stake.

The company wants to complete a deal during the third quarter of the year.

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Responding to an enquiry from Sky News, Mr Vince said: “Heckington Fen is a fabulous opportunity; it’s also a massive one, possibly the biggest onshore renewable initiative in Britain.

“The project is shovel-ready with a grid connection in 2028 – something which is increasingly hard to find these days.

“Whilst this is a great project which is going to go ahead, the sums of money required to build this alone in a short timeframe, means we’re looking for investors or partners to help make this happen.”

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Sir Keir Starmer pledges to protect UK companies from Trump tariff ‘storm’

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Sir Keir Starmer pledges to protect UK companies from Trump tariff 'storm'

Sir Keir Starmer has said his government stands ready to use industrial policy to “shelter British business from the storm” after Donald Trump’s new 10% tariff kicked in.

The UK was among a number of countries hit with the lowest import duty rate following the president’s announcement on 2 April – which he called ‘Liberation Day’, while other nations, such as Vietnam, Cambodia and China face much higher US levies.

But a global trade war will hurt the UK’s open economy.

The prime minister said “these new times demand a new mentality”, after the 10% tax on British imports into America came into force on Saturday. A 25% US levy on all foreign car imports was introduced on Thursday.

It comes as Jaguar Land Rover announced it would “pause” shipments to the US for a month, as firms grapple with the new taxes.

On Saturday, the car manufacturer said it was working to “address the new trading terms” and was looking to “develop our mid to longer-term plans”.

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Jobs fears as Jaguar halts shipments

Referring to the tariffs, Sir Keir said “the immediate priority is to keep calm and fight for the best deal”.

Writing in The Sunday Telegraph, he said that in the coming days “we will turbocharge plans that will improve our domestic competitiveness”, adding: “We stand ready to use industrial policy to help shelter British business from the storm.”

It is believed a number of announcements could be made soon as ministers look to encourage growth.

NI contribution rate for employers goes up

From Sunday, the rate of employer NICs (national insurance contributions) increased from 13.8% to 15%.

At the same time, firms will also pay more because the government lowered the salary threshold at which companies start paying NICs from £9,100 to £5,000.

Also, the FTSE 100 of leading UK companies had its worst day of trading since the start of the pandemic on Friday, with banks among some of the firms to suffer the sharpest losses.

Sir Keir said: “This week, the government will do everything necessary to protect Britain’s national interest. Because when global economic sands are shifting, our laser focus on delivering for Britain will not. And these new times demand a new mentality.”

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Trump defiant despite markets

UK spared highest tariff rates

Some of the highest rates have been applied to “worst offender” countries including some in Southeast Asia. Imports from Cambodia will be subject to a 49% tariff, while those from Vietnam will face a 46% rate. Chinese goods will be hit with a 34% tariff.

Imports from France will have a 20% tariff, the rate which has been set for European Union nations. These will come into effect on 9 April.

Read more:
Red wall on Wall Street – but Trump undeterred
How will UK respond to Trump’s tariffs?

Sir Keir has been speaking to foreign leaders on the phone over the weekend, including French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, to discuss the tariff changes.

A Downing Street spokesperson said of the conversation between Sir Keir and Mr Macron: “They agreed that a trade war was in nobody’s interests but nothing should be off the table and that it was important to keep business updated on developments.

“The prime minister and president also shared their concerns about the global economic and security impact, particularly in Southeast Asia.”

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Trump’s warning

Mr Trump has warned Americans the tariffs “won’t be easy”, but urged them to “hang tough”.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said: “We are bringing back jobs and businesses like never before.

“Already, more than FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS OF INVESTMENT, and rising fast!

“THIS IS AN ECONOMIC REVOLUTION, AND WE WILL WIN. HANG TOUGH, it won’t be easy, but the end result will be historic.”

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Santander UK lines up ex-Treasury chief Scholar as new chair

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Santander UK lines up ex-Treasury chief Scholar as new chair

Sir Tom Scholar, the former top Treasury civil servant sacked by Liz Truss during her premiership, is being lined up as the next chairman of Santander UK, Britain’s fifth-biggest high street bank.

Sky News has learnt that Sir Tom, who played a pivotal role in the UK’s response to the 2008 financial crisis, is the leading candidate to replace William Vereker.

The appointment, which is subject to regulatory approval, could be announced later in the spring, according to insiders.

Sir Tom’s prospective recruitment comes amid a period of intense speculation about the future of Santander UK, which bulked up rapidly during the banking crisis by absorbing Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley.

The Spanish banking giant entered the British retail market in 2004 when it bought Abbey National, setting in motion a chain of dealmaking which would result in it becoming a serious challenger to Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest Group.

If confirmed in the role, Sir Tom will follow a pattern of former senior public officials in taking on the chairmanship of Santander UK.

The post has been held in the past by Baroness Vadera, a Treasury minister during the 2008 meltdown, and Lord Burns, the former Treasury permanent secretary.

Sir Tom also held that latter role until his ousting during the shortlived Truss government, which led to him receiving a payoff of more than £350,000.

In addition to his position during the banking crisis, he was instrumental in devising the COVID-19 furlough scheme, which protected millions of private sector jobs during the series of lockdowns imposed on the British public.

He was widely respected among international banking regulators and finance ministers, and his sacking by Ms Truss sparked fury among senior civil servants.

Since leaving the Treasury, he has been appointed as chair of the European operations of Nomura, the Japanese bank.

At Santander UK, he will work closely with Mike Regnier, the former building society boss who has been its chief executive since 2022.

In recent months, there has been growing speculation that Santander UK’s parent is open to a sale of the business amid frustration about the scope and burden of British banking regulation.

Both Barclays and NatWest have been sounded out about a potential merger of their UK retail businesses with that of Santander UK, although formal talks have not progressed to a meaningful stage.

Ana Botin, Santander’s group executive chair, has appeared to publicly rule out a disposal, saying that the UK remains a “core market” for the group.

An attractively priced offer could yet gain Ms Botin’s attention, according to people close to the earlier talks.

One insider said, however, that Sir Tom’s recruitment was likely to dampen further speculation about a possible sale of the British business.

Shares in the Madrid-listed parent company, Banco Santander, have performed strongly in recent months, but fell by more than 8% on Friday as investors digested the fallout from President Donald Trump’s global tariffs blitz.

The company now has a market capitalisation of about €83.25bn (£70.7bn).

City sources said the search for Mr Vereker’s successor had been led by Heidrick & Struggles, the headhunter, in conjunction with Baroness Morgan, the former cabinet minister who sits on Santander UK’s board as its senior independent director.

This weekend, Santander UK said in a statement issued to Sky News: “Santander UK is conducting a thorough appointment process.

“The new chair will be announced once that process has concluded, including having obtained board and regulatory approval.”

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