No decrease in inflation as it remains at 8.7%

Published

2 years ago

June 21, 2023

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The rate of price rises has remained at 8.7% despite expectations of a fall, according to official figures.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced the consumer price index measure of inflation stood at 8.7% in the year up to May, the same as the rate in April.

A slight decrease, to 8.4%, had been expected by economists. It puts the government’s pledge to halve inflation this year in doubt.

The rate has been kept high due to the rising cost of second-hand cars, live music events and computer games, the ONS chief economist said, though they were partially offset by the fall in petrol prices. More expensive flights were also partially to blame, the ONS said.

As a result, interest rate projections have increased and the base rate is expected by investors to peak at 6% in March next year but could reach the new high as soon as December.

Investors now expect the Bank will maintain that high well in to next summer.

High interest rates mean more expensive borrowing with more costly mortgage bills likely.

The pain will come before rates reach the high as lenders price in the projections in to the products they have on the market. The interest rate on the average two-year fixed mortgage already reached 6.01% earlier this week.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the government will make no policy changes in response to the news.

“Today’s figures strengthen the case for the government to stick to its guns, no matter what the pressure from left, right or centre, we won’t be pushed off course,” he said.

“We will not hesitate in our resolve to support the Bank of England as it seeks to squeeze inflation out of our economy, while also providing targeted support with the cost of living.”

Inflation rate rises are turning into a sticky phenomenon – and there are a few obvious consequences

Ed Conway

Economics & data editor

@EdConwaySky

Not good.

Not good at all.

The last few months of inflation data have had a dreary and repetitive rhythm to them.

Economists predict the rate at which prices are rising will finally begin to fall, and fast. Then the official data comes in and it turns out prices are not falling as fast as predicted. And then everyone gets depressed.

That pattern repeated itself today.

Read more

“If you look at what’s happening in other countries, you can see that rises in interest rates do bring down inflation over time, that will happen here,” Hunt added.

There’s been an increase in another measure of inflation being watched by the Bank of England – core inflation, which excludes volatile categories including fuel and food.

That rise bucked expectations and now stands at 7.1%, a 31-year high and up from 6.8% last month. Not since March 1992 was the rate of core inflation so high.

It was forecast to remain stagnant at 6.8%.

Food inflation came down slightly to 18.3% from 19.1% last month, the ONS said.

The Bank of England has undertaken a programme of interest rate rises to bring inflation down to 2% and Wednesday’s figure will be closely watched by rate-setters ahead of the latest expected rise on Thursday.

Inflation began to increase in late 2021, when supply chain problems linked to COVID lockdowns and the associated worker shortages meant demand for goods could not be met.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated the problem as many countries, particularly those in Europe, scrambled to find other energy sources and reduce their use of Russian gas, which subsequently pushed up the cost of energy and many other goods.

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Trump fires tariff threats at more nations as EU ‘ready for all scenarios’

Published

7 hours ago

July 9, 2025

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Trump fires tariff threats at more nations as EU 'ready for all scenarios'

Donald Trump has revealed a list of more nations set to face delayed ‘liberation day’ tariffs from 1 August.

He has threatened tariffs of 30% on Algeria, 25% on Brunei, 30% on Iraq, 30% on Libya, 25% on Moldova and 20% on the Philippines. Sri Lanka was later told it faced a 30% duty.

Letters setting out the planned rates – and warning against retaliation – are being sent to the leaders of each country.

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They were the latest to be informed of the president‘s plans after Japan and South Korea were among the first 14 nations to be told of the rates they must pay on their general exports to the US from 1 August.

The duties are on top of sectoral tariffs, covering areas such as steel and cars, already in place.

Mr Trump further warned, on Tuesday, that a 50% tariff rate on all copper imports to the US was looming.

He has also threatened a 200% rate on pharmaceuticals and is also expected to take aim at all imports of semiconductors too.

The European Union, America’s largest trading partner in combined trade, services and investment, is expected to get a letter within the next 48 hours unless further progress is made in continuing talks.

The bloc, which Mr Trump has previously claimed was created to “screw” the US, has been in negotiations with US officials for weeks and working to agree a UK-style truce by the end of the month.

The EU has retaliatory tariffs ready to deploy from 14 July but it is widely expected to delay them until such time that any heightened US duties are imposed.

It remains hopeful of a deal in the coming days but European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament: “We stick to our principles, we defend our interests, we continue to work in good faith, and we get ready for all scenarios.”

While the UK’s so-called deal with Mr Trump is now in force, it remains unclear whether steelmakers will have to pay a 50% tariff rate, deployed by the US against the rest of the world, as some final details on an exemption are yet to be worked out.

The rate is currently 25%.

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Nvidia wins race to become first $4trn listed company

Published

10 hours ago

July 9, 2025

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Nvidia wins race to become first trn listed company

Nvidia has become the first stock market-listed company to achieve a value of $4trn.

Its share price rose by more than 2% at the market open on Wall Street to reach the milestone moment.

It was achieved just over a year since Nvidia overcame the $3trn barrier and overtook Apple, in market cap terms, in the process.

The AI-focused chipmaker has been the darling of Wall Street for many years.

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The value of its shares has risen by 409,825% since its market debut in 1999.

Its status has been cemented thanks to the rush for AI technology – suffering several wobbles along the way – but nothing significant when you refer to the percentage rise of the past 26 years.

The most recent pressures have come from the emergence of the low-cost chatbot DeepSeek and concerns for global AI demand as a result of Donald Trump’s trade war hitting growth.

Financial markets have been taking a more risk-on approach to the trade war since the delays to “liberation day” tariffs in April.

It’s explained by a market trend that’s become known as the TACO trade: Trump always chickens out.

It has helped US stock markets post new record highs in recent days.

The wave of optimism is down to the fact that the president is yet to follow through with the worst of his threatened tariffs on trading partners.

Corporations are also yet to report big hits to their earnings – a fact that is also propping up demand for shares.

If Mr Trump does go all-out in his trade war, as he has now threatened from 1 August, then that $4trn market value for Nvidia – and wider stock markets – could be short-lived, at least in the short term.

But market analysts believe Nvidia’s value has further to go.

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said of its meteoric rise: “Once known for powering video games, NVIDIA has transformed into a foundational player in AI infrastructure.

“Its high-performance chips now drive everything from natural language processing to robotics, making them essential to training and deploying advanced AI models.

“Beyond hardware, its full-stack ecosystem – including software platforms and developer tools – helps companies scale AI quickly and efficiently. This end-to-end approach has positioned Nvidia as a cornerstone in a market where speed, scalability, and efficiency are critical.”

He added: “The key question is where it goes from here, and while it might seem strange for a company that’s just passed the $4trn mark, Nvidia still looks attractive.

“Growth is expected to slow, and it’s likely to lose some market share as competition and custom solutions ramp up. But trading at a relatively modest 32 times expected earnings, and over 50% top-line growth forecast this year, there’s still an attractive opportunity ahead.

“For investors, it remains a compelling way to gain exposure to the AI boom – not just as a participant, but as one of its architects.”

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Greater risk to UK economy following Trump’s tariffs, says Bank of England

Published

10 hours ago

July 9, 2025

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Greater risk to UK economy following Trump's tariffs, says Bank of England

The future of the UK economy is weaker and more uncertain due to President Trump’s tariffs and conflict in the Middle East, the Bank of England has said.

“The outlook for UK growth over the coming year is a little weaker and more uncertain,” the central bank said in its biannual health check of the UK’s financial system.

Economic and financial risks have increased since the last report was published in November, as global unpredictability continued after the announcement of country-specific tariffs on 2 April, the Bank’s Financial Stability Report said.

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These risks and uncertainty, as well as geopolitical tensions, like the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, are “particularly relevant” to UK financial stability as an open economy with a large financial sector, it said.

Pressures on government borrowing costs are “still elevated” amid significant doubts over the global economic outlook.

Had a 90-day pause on tariffs not been announced, conditions could have worsened, the report added.

The chance of prices rising overall has also grown as tensions between Iran and Israel and the US threaten to push up energy prices.

Possible higher inflation in turn raises the prospect of more expensive borrowing from higher interest rates to bring down those price rises. This compounds the pressure on state borrowing costs.

Mortgages

Borrowing costs for about 40% of mortgage holders are set to become costlier over the next three years as households refix to more expensive deals, affecting 3.6 million households, the Bank said.

Many homes have not refixed their mortgage since interest rates began to rise in 2021, meaning the full impact of higher rates has yet to filter through.

Those looking to get on the property ladder got a boost as the Bank said lenders could issue more loans deemed to be risky, meaning people could be able to borrow more.

Financial institutions can now have 15% of their new mortgages deemed risky every year, up from the current 9.7%.

Riskier mortgages are those with a loan value above 4.5 times the borrower’s income.

Be ‘prepared for shocks’

Despite the global and domestic economy concerns, the outlook for UK household and business resilience remained “strong”, the Bank said.

Investors, however, were warned that there could be “sharp falls in risky asset prices”, which include shares and currencies.

If there are any vulnerabilities in non-bank lenders, it “could amplify such moves, potentially affecting the availability and cost of credit in the UK”.

“It is important that in their risk management, market participants [people involved in investing] are prepared for such shocks.”

The steep market reaction following the tariff announcements in April “highlights that the interconnectedness of global financial markets can mean stress from one market can move quickly to others,” the report said.

Overall, though, “household and corporate borrowers remain resilient”, the Bank concluded.