Sky News poll tracker: How are political parties performing as an election looms?
The live poll tracker from Sky News collates the results of opinion surveys carried out by all the main polling organisations – and allows you to see how the political parties are performing.
By charting changing voting intentions from January 2020 to now, the tracker allows you to monitor the evolving picture as we head towards the next general election.
Below you can learn more about the methodology, and how to read the data.
The tool you need as the election looms
Bookmark this page, remember this tool. Sky News has launched its own, authoritative version of one of the most important indicators available ahead of a general election next year.
Almost every day between now and the election, there will be new opinion polls by a clutch of different pollsters – each using different methodologies and all asking who voters will support on polling day.
Which pollster will be closest, which method is the right one, who should you look at? Those questions will always be unanswerable until the morning after election day, with the past only a broad guide to the future.
There is a tendency for political professionals to seize on every one of the polls, magnify every percentage point of movement, and draw dramatic headline conclusions. No doubt I will at times be guilty of this, but it will also put you at risk of over interpreting a single outlier poll.
Every poll has a margin of error of two or three percentage points either side. This isn’t just ignorable small print, it’s a big challenge for all of us – and a warning for all of us not to impatiently rewrite political narratives based on a single number change.
So the best way to use opinion polling reliably requires patience – and a lot more data. That is where this tool comes in.
How does one pollster, with its (usually) consistent methodology, move over weeks and months? Is there a discernible pattern from several different pollsters over a matter of days? Those of us with our noses pressed firmly up against the glass don’t want to wait for this.
This sort of analysis is only available through a “poll of polls”, which takes data from every single pollster that is asking voting intention questions and signed up to the industry standards body, the British Polling Council.
It is drawn up by Sky election analyst Will Jennings and Sky data and elections editor Isla Glaister – and supported by a team of Sky data scientists and designers. It’s an important piece of work for us, and a lot of thought has gone into it.
The poll of polls seeks to give an answer to the most important question of all – the direction of travel of public opinion over time. Are the closing months of this parliament, the declining state of the economy and the emergence of Labour’s policy platform making any difference? Keep coming back to this page.
There are limits. Crude attempts to turn the polling averages for the main parties into a number of seats for each party will always be just that: rough and ready and probably ultimately unhelpful (not that people will stop trying). This is a GB poll so the level of support for the SNP necessarily reflects how they fare comparatively across Great Britain, not just in Scotland.
Likewise, there is nothing here about Northern Ireland. Liberal Democrats might say they perform better in target seats where they focus resources, rather than nationally where they rely on air war alone.
Nevertheless, this is the page – and a tool – which will tell you the biggest picture story about the main parties and their comparative level of support as we hurl towards a general election where anything could happen. See you back here soon.
How does the tracker work?
The main line
The main line travelling from left to right shows the average support that each party was recording on a given date. The average is a simple mean of each of the most recent polls from all pollsters recognised by the British Polling Council.
Pollsters have slightly different methodologies in how they interpret raw results from the sample of people they ask. Our average uses a maximum of one poll per pollster, which means it is not skewed by pollsters who happen to publish surveys more regularly than others.
If the most recent poll by a given pollster was more than 28 days ago, we exclude it from the average.
The dots
The dots on the chart represent results from individual polls. If you click on a dot you can see the details of that particular poll for each party, including the name of the pollster who carried it out and the date they finished asking people.
The pollsters
The polls we include are all those by pollsters recognised by the British Polling Council (BPC).
The BPC is an association of polling organisations that publish polls, with a commitment to promoting transparency.
It is concerned only with polls and surveys that set out to measure the opinions of representative samples – such as the views of all adults, or all voters.
Membership is limited to organisations who can show to the satisfaction of the BPC that the sampling methods and weighting procedures used are designed to accurately represent the views of all people within designated target groups.
How are polls carried out?
Most polls these days are carried out online. Pollsters use a panel of people whom they know demographic information about – such as age, gender, education and where they live – so they can pick a sample that best represents the whole UK.
If polls are carried out over the phone, they will ask people this information at the time so that they can factor it into calculations.
Over the course of a few days, they ask these people their political preference and then take into account how many people of different demographics they’ve asked – and adjust the results according to what each pollster thinks is the best way to make the sample most representative of the country as a whole.
In general, pollsters should ask at least 1,000 people to get a reliable result. Statistical theory indicates that you are unlikely to get much more reliable results by asking any more than a couple of thousand people – even in a country of almost 70 million – but too many fewer than 1,000 could make the poll less likely to accurately reflect the views of the population.
Credits
Chart design and implementation:
Dr Will Jennings, Sky News election analyst
Daniel Dunford, senior data journalist
Jenai Edwards, designer
Production:
Przemyslaw Pluta, lead data engineer
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
UK
‘I have nightmares of dead bodies’: Patients dying and undiscovered for hours in hospital corridors
Patients are dying in corridors and going undiscovered for hours while the sick are left to soil themselves, nurses have said, revealing the scale of the corridor crisis inside the UK’s hospitals.
In a “harrowing” report built from the experiences of more than 5,000 NHS nursing staff, the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) found almost seven in 10 (66.81%) say they are delivering care in overcrowded or unsuitable places, including converted cupboards, corridors and even car parks, on a daily basis.
Demoralised staff are looking after as many as 40 patients in a single corridor, unable to access oxygen, cardiac monitors, suction and other lifesaving equipment.
Women are miscarrying in corridors, while some nurses report being unable to carry out adequate CPR on patients having heart attacks.
Sara (not her real name) said she was on shift when a doctor told her there was a dying patient who had been waiting in the hospital’s corridor for six hours.
“It took a further two hours to get her into an adequate care space to make her clean and comfortable,” she told Sky News.
“That’s a human being, someone in the last hours of their life in the middle of a corridor with a detoxing patient vomiting and being abusive behind them and a very poorly patient in front of them, who was confused, screaming in pain. It was awful on the family, and it was awful on the patient.”
Dead patients ‘not found for hours’
A nurse working in the southeast of England quit her job after witnessing an elderly lady in “animal-like conditions”.
She told the RCN: “A 90-year-old lady with dementia was scared, crying and urinating in the bed after asking several times for help to the toilet. Seeing that lady, frightened and subjected to animal-like conditions is what broke me.
“At the end of that shift, I handed in my notice with no job to go to. I will not work where this is a normal day-to-day occurrence.”
Another nurse in the South East said a patient died in a corridor and “wasn’t discovered for hours”.
Sara told Sky another woman needed resuscitating after the oxygen underneath her trolley ran out. Sara was one of just two nurses caring for more than 30 patients on that corridor.
“I have had nightmares – I have a nightmare that I walk out in the corridor and there are dead bodies in body bags on the trolleys,” she said, growing visibly emotional.
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No electricity to plug in computers
One nurse, who spoke to Sky News, said the conditions were “undignified” and “inhumane”.
“It’s not just corridors – we utilise chairs, cupboards, whatever space is available in the hospital to be repurposed into a care space, in the loosest sense of that term. These spaces are unsafe.”
Some spaces, she said, don’t even have basic electricity for nurses to plug in their computers.
The nurse, who spoke to Sky on the condition of anonymity, said she has experienced burnout multiple times over the state of her workplace.
“I have come to the conclusion this week I don’t think I can continue working in the NHS or as a nurse,” she said.
“It breaks my soul; I love what I do when I am able to do it in the right way. I like caring for people, I like making people better, I also like providing a dignified death.”
She added: “I want to look after the institution I was born into, but for the sake of my family and my mental health, I don’t know how much more I can give.”
With 32,000 nursing vacancies in England alone, data also shows around one in eight nurses leave the profession within five years of qualifying.
Nurses are being forced to provide care in hospital corridors and car parks. Pic: PA
Staff ‘not proud of the care they are giving’
The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) says the testimony, which runs to over 400 pages, must mark a “moment in time”. In May 2024, the RCN declared a “national emergency” over corridor care in NHS services.
Professor Nicola Ranger, RCN general secretary and chief executive, said: “At the moment, [nursing staff] are not proud of the care they are giving.”
“We hear stories of escalation areas and temporary beds that have been open for two years,” she added. “That is no longer escalation, it’s understaffed and underfunded capacity that is pretty shocking care for patients. We have to get a grip on that.”
Read more: Hospital advertises for corridor nurse amid NHS winter crisis
She called the situation “a disgrace”, citing abuse of staff as another reason for people leaving the profession in droves.
Last week, a nurse was left with “life-changing injuries” after being stabbed by a man while at work.
“The NHS used to be the envy of the world and we need to take a long hard look at ourselves and say ‘what needs to change?’
“The biggest concern for us is that the public Is starting to lose a little faith in their care, and that has to stop. We absolutely have to sort this out.”
Commenting on the RCN’s report, Duncan Burton, chief nursing officer for England, said the NHS had experienced one of the “toughest winters” in recent months, and the report “should never be considered the standard to which the NHS aspires”.
“Despite the challenges the NHS faces, we are seeing extraordinary efforts from staff who are doing everything they can to provide safe, compassionate care every day,” he added. “As a nurse, I know how distressing it can be when you are unable to provide the very best standards of care for patients.”
Have you experienced corridor care in an NHS hospital? Get in touch on NHSstories@sky.uk
Singer Linda Nolan, who rose to fame alongside her sisters in The Nolans, has died after several years of battling cancer.
The Irish star, 65, and her sisters Coleen, Maureen, Bernie, Denise and Anne, had a run of hits in the late 1970s and ’80s – including the disco classic I’m In The Mood For Dancing.
Paying tribute on The Nolans‘ X account, her sisters described her as “a pop icon and beacon of hope”, who “faced incurable cancer with courage, grace and determination, inspiring millions”.
Linda died peacefully in hospital this morning, “embraced with love and comfort” with her siblings by her side, her agent Dermot McNamara said in a statement.
“As a member of The Nolans, one of the most successful girl groups of all time, Linda achieved global success; becoming the first Irish act to sell over a million records worldwide, touring the world and selling over 30 million records,” he said.
“Her distinctive voice and magnetic stage presence brought joy to fans around the world, securing her place as an icon of British and Irish entertainment.”
As well as her TV and musical career, Linda helped to raise more than £20 million for numerous charities, including Breast Cancer Now, Irish Cancer Society, Samaritans and others.
“Her selflessness and tireless commitment to making a difference in the lives of others will forever be a cornerstone of her legacy,” Mr McNamara said.
Five of the Nolans in 1983 (L-R): Linda, Anne, Bernie, Coleen and Maureen. Pic: PA
Linda’s death came after she was admitted to hospital with pneumonia over the weekend. She began receiving end-of-life care after slipping into a coma on Tuesday.
Details of a celebration of the star’s “remarkable life” will be shared in due course.
Linda was born to Tommy and Maureen Nolan in Dublin on 23 February 1959, the sixth of eight children.
Her parents were both singers and keen to turn their young family into a musical troupe. Linda made her stage debut aged just four.
Those early years put the siblings on track for a career in show business which lasted for decades. As well as I’m In The Mood For Dancing, The Nolans had hits with Gotta Pull Myself Together, Attention To Me and Don’t Make Waves, and they also had their own TV specials.
At their height, they toured with Frank Sinatra and were reported to have outsold The Beatles in Japan.
Linda left the group in 1983, but later reformed with her sisters for several comeback performances. She also became known for musical theatre, most notably performing the role of Mrs Johnstone in Blood Brothers for three years from 2000.
L-R: Bernie, Denise, Linda (top), Anne and Maureen Nolan pictured in 1975, before youngest sister Coleen joined the group
Four siblings struck by cancer
Linda was first diagnosed with breast cancer in 2005, and underwent a mastectomy two days before her 47th birthday.
After being given the all-clear in 2011, in 2017 she was diagnosed with secondary breast cancer. Three years later, Linda and Anne together revealed they were being treated for cancer once again.
The sisters were diagnosed with different forms of the disease just days apart after they returned home from filming a series of their show, The Nolans Go Cruising. Linda had cancer of the liver, while Anne had breast cancer.
The star, pictured last year, had battled cancer for several years. Pic: Shutterstock
They went on to write Stronger Together, an account of their journey that included frank details of their treatments and the side effects.
But in 2023, Linda revealed the cancer had spread to her brain and she was beginning treatment as part of a new drug trial.
The Nolans lost their second-youngest sister, Bernie, to cancer in 2013, aged 52.
Loose Women star Coleen Nolan also revealed she was diagnosed with skin cancer last year, and said she was using a chemotherapy cream to remove it.
Linda’s husband of 26 years, Brian Hudson, died in 2007 after being diagnosed with skin cancer.
Anne Nolan is now cancer-free.
Tributes to star ‘who was always a joy’
TV star and singer Cheryl Baker and comedian Tommy Cannon are among those who have paid tribute.
“I’m heartbroken to hear about the passing of Linda Nolan,” Cannon wrote on X. “I had the pleasure of working with her on so many occasions, and she was always a joy – full of warmth and love. My thoughts and love are with the Nolan girls and the whole family.”
“The most incredible voice, the wickedest sense of humour, such a massive talent,” Baker wrote. “You’re with Brian now, Lin.”
Loose Women also sent its love to her family. Linda appeared as a guest panellist on the ITV chat show over the years, alongside her sister Coleen.
The Blackpool Grand Theatre described her as “a true Blackpool icon”.
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