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The live poll tracker from Sky News collates the results of opinion surveys carried out by all the main polling organisations – and allows you to see how the political parties are performing.

By charting changing voting intentions from January 2020 to now, the tracker allows you to monitor the evolving picture as we head towards the next general election.

Below you can learn more about the methodology, and how to read the data.

The tool you need as the election looms


Sam Coates

Sam Coates

Deputy political editor

@SamCoatesSky

Bookmark this page, remember this tool. Sky News has launched its own, authoritative version of one of the most important indicators available ahead of a general election next year.

Almost every day between now and the election, there will be new opinion polls by a clutch of different pollsters – each using different methodologies and all asking who voters will support on polling day.

Which pollster will be closest, which method is the right one, who should you look at? Those questions will always be unanswerable until the morning after election day, with the past only a broad guide to the future.

There is a tendency for political professionals to seize on every one of the polls, magnify every percentage point of movement, and draw dramatic headline conclusions. No doubt I will at times be guilty of this, but it will also put you at risk of over interpreting a single outlier poll.

Every poll has a margin of error of two or three percentage points either side. This isn’t just ignorable small print, it’s a big challenge for all of us – and a warning for all of us not to impatiently rewrite political narratives based on a single number change.

So the best way to use opinion polling reliably requires patience – and a lot more data. That is where this tool comes in.

How does one pollster, with its (usually) consistent methodology, move over weeks and months? Is there a discernible pattern from several different pollsters over a matter of days? Those of us with our noses pressed firmly up against the glass don’t want to wait for this.

This sort of analysis is only available through a “poll of polls”, which takes data from every single pollster that is asking voting intention questions and signed up to the industry standards body, the British Polling Council.

It is drawn up by Sky election analyst Will Jennings and Sky data and elections editor Isla Glaister – and supported by a team of Sky data scientists and designers. It’s an important piece of work for us, and a lot of thought has gone into it.

The poll of polls seeks to give an answer to the most important question of all – the direction of travel of public opinion over time. Are the closing months of this parliament, the declining state of the economy and the emergence of Labour’s policy platform making any difference? Keep coming back to this page.

There are limits. Crude attempts to turn the polling averages for the main parties into a number of seats for each party will always be just that: rough and ready and probably ultimately unhelpful (not that people will stop trying). This is a GB poll so the level of support for the SNP necessarily reflects how they fare comparatively across Great Britain, not just in Scotland.

Likewise, there is nothing here about Northern Ireland. Liberal Democrats might say they perform better in target seats where they focus resources, rather than nationally where they rely on air war alone.

Nevertheless, this is the page – and a tool – which will tell you the biggest picture story about the main parties and their comparative level of support as we hurl towards a general election where anything could happen. See you back here soon.

How does the tracker work?

The main line

The main line travelling from left to right shows the average support that each party was recording on a given date. The average is a simple mean of each of the most recent polls from all pollsters recognised by the British Polling Council.

Pollsters have slightly different methodologies in how they interpret raw results from the sample of people they ask. Our average uses a maximum of one poll per pollster, which means it is not skewed by pollsters who happen to publish surveys more regularly than others.

If the most recent poll by a given pollster was more than 28 days ago, we exclude it from the average.

The dots

The dots on the chart represent results from individual polls. If you click on a dot you can see the details of that particular poll for each party, including the name of the pollster who carried it out and the date they finished asking people.

The pollsters

The polls we include are all those by pollsters recognised by the British Polling Council (BPC).

The BPC is an association of polling organisations that publish polls, with a commitment to promoting transparency.

It is concerned only with polls and surveys that set out to measure the opinions of representative samples – such as the views of all adults, or all voters.

Membership is limited to organisations who can show to the satisfaction of the BPC that the sampling methods and weighting procedures used are designed to accurately represent the views of all people within designated target groups.

How are polls carried out?

Most polls these days are carried out online. Pollsters use a panel of people whom they know demographic information about – such as age, gender, education and where they live – so they can pick a sample that best represents the whole UK.

If polls are carried out over the phone, they will ask people this information at the time so that they can factor it into calculations.

Over the course of a few days, they ask these people their political preference and then take into account how many people of different demographics they’ve asked – and adjust the results according to what each pollster thinks is the best way to make the sample most representative of the country as a whole.

In general, pollsters should ask at least 1,000 people to get a reliable result. Statistical theory indicates that you are unlikely to get much more reliable results by asking any more than a couple of thousand people – even in a country of almost 70 million – but too many fewer than 1,000 could make the poll less likely to accurately reflect the views of the population.

More detail from the BPC.

Credits

Chart design and implementation:
Dr Will Jennings, Sky News election analyst
Daniel Dunford, senior data journalist
Jenai Edwards, designer

Production:
Przemyslaw Pluta, lead data engineer


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

Why data journalism matters to Sky News

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David Fuller: Offences committed by hospital worker who sexually abused dozens of corpses ‘could happen again’

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David Fuller: Offences committed by hospital worker who sexually abused dozens of corpses 'could happen again'

An inquiry into the case of a hospital worker who sexually abused dozens of corpses has concluded that “offences such as those committed by David Fuller could happen again”.

It found that “current arrangements in England for the regulation and oversight of the care of people after death are partial, ineffective and, in significant areas, completely lacking”.

The first phase of the inquiry found Fuller, 70, was able to offend for 15 years in mortuaries without being suspected or caught due to “serious failings” at the hospitals where he worked.

Phase 2 of the inquiry has examined the broader national picture and considered if procedures and practices in other hospital and non-hospital settings, where deceased people are kept, safeguard their security and dignity.

What were Fuller’s crimes?

Fuller was given a whole-life prison term in December 2021 for the murders of Wendy Knell and Caroline Pierce in Tunbridge Wells, Kent, in 1987.

During his time as a maintenance worker, he also abused the corpses of at least 101 women and girls at Kent and Sussex Hospital and the Tunbridge Wells Hospital before his arrest in December 2020.

His victims ranged in age from nine to 100.

Phase 1 of the inquiry found he entered one mortuary 444 times in the space of one year “unnoticed and unchecked” and that deceased people were also left out of fridges and overnight during working hours.

‘Inadequate management, governance and processes’

Presenting the findings on Tuesday, Sir Jonathan Michael, chair of the inquiry, said: “This is the first time that the security and dignity of people after death has been reviewed so comprehensively.

“Inadequate management, governance and processes helped create the environment in which David Fuller was able to offend for so long.”

He said that these “weaknesses” are not confined to where Fuller operated, adding that he found examples from “across the country”.

“I have asked myself whether there could be a recurrence of the appalling crimes committed by David Fuller. – I have concluded that yes, it is entirely possible that such offences could be repeated, particularly in those sectors that lack any form of statutory regulation.”

Sir Jonathan called for a statutory regulation to “protect the security and dignity of people after death”.

After an initial glance, his interim report already called for urgent regulation to safeguard the “security and dignity of the deceased”.

On publication of his final report he describes regulation and oversight of care as “ineffective, and in significant areas completely lacking”.

David Fuller was an electrician who committed sexual offences against at least 100 deceased women and girls in the mortuaries of the Kent and Sussex Hospital and the Tunbridge Wells Hospital. His victims ranged in age from nine to 100.

This first phase of the inquiry found Fuller entered the mortuary 444 times in a single year, “unnoticed and unchecked”.

It was highly critical of the systems in place that allowed this to happen.

His shocking discovery, looking at the broader industry – be it other NHS Trusts or the 4,500 funeral directors in England – is that it could easily have happened elsewhere.

The conditions described suggest someone like Fuller could get away with it again.

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MasterChef is ‘bigger than individuals’ and ‘can survive’, BBC says

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MasterChef is 'bigger than individuals' and 'can survive', BBC says

BBC director-general Tim Davie has said MasterChef can survive its current scandal as it is “much bigger than individuals” – but the corporation must “make sure we’re in the right place in terms of the culture of the show”.

On Monday, it was revealed an independent review into “inappropriate behaviour” by MasterChef presenter Gregg Wallace had upheld more than half of the allegations against him.

A few hours later, Wallace’s former MasterChef co-presenter, John Torode, said an allegation he used “racial language” was upheld in the report as part of a review.

After the report was published, Wallace, 60, said he was “deeply sorry” for causing any distress, and never set out to “harm or humiliate”.

Torode, 59, said he had “no recollection of the incident” and said he “did not believe that it happened,” and said he was “shocked and saddened by the allegation”.

Mr Davie said the BBC’s leadership team would not “tolerate behaviour that is not in line with our values,” while BBC chair Samir Shah acknowledged there were still pockets within the broadcaster where “powerful individuals” can still “make life for their colleagues unbearable”.

They said several BBC staff members had been dismissed in the last three months, following an independent review into workplace culture.

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Wallace, who was sacked from MasterChef last week, is not included in that count as he was not directly contracted by the corporation, but employed by independent production company Banijay.

The corporation has yet to decide if the unseen MasterChef series – filmed with both Wallace and Torode last year – will be aired or not.

BBC Broadcasting House in Portland Place, London. Pic: Jordan Pettitt/PA
Image:
BBC Broadcasting House in Portland Place, London. Pic: Jordan Pettitt/PA

News of the findings in the Gregg Wallace report came just hours before the BBC was deemed to have breached its editorial guidelines by failing to disclose that the child narrator of a Gaza documentary was the son of a Hamas official.

Media watchdog Ofcom subsequently launched its own investigation into the programme.

While the 2024-25 annual report showed a small rise in trust overall for the corporation, Mr Davie acknowledged it had been a year which saw the reputation of the BBC damaged by “serious failings” in the making of the documentary.

The BBC boss acknowledged: “It was important that the BBC took full responsibility for those failings and apologised for them,” and later in response to a question, called the documentary – Gaza: How To Survive A Warzone – “the most challenging editorial issue I’ve had to deal with”.

He went on: “The importance of fair balance reporting, the need for high-quality homegrown programming in the face of massive pressure, I think has never, ever been greater. And I believe my leadership and the team I’ve assembled can really help the BBC thrive in that environment and very competitive environment.”

BBC Director-General Tim Davie. Pic: PA
Image:
BBC Director-General Tim Davie. Pic: PA

BBC boss has chair’s ‘full support’

Despite a series of failings in recent months – including livestreaming the controversial Bob Vylan set at Glastonbury last month – Mr Davie insisted he can “lead” the organisation in the right direction.

When asked if he would resign, he replied: “I simply think I’m in a place where I can work to improve dramatically the BBC and lead it in the right way.

“We will make mistakes, but I think as a leadership and myself, I’ve been very clear, and I think we have been decisive.”

He said the organisation was setting a “global standard” for media.

Mr Shah, reiterated his support for Mr Davie.

“Tim Davie and his team, and Tim in particular, has shown very strong leadership throughout all this period and he has my full support.”

The report also revealed its top earners, which saw former Match Of The Day host Gary Lineker top the chart once again.

Meanwhile, Australian children’s cartoon Bluey proved a boon for the broadcaster, and was the most watched show in the US across all genres – with 55 billion minutes viewed.

The top 10 shows watched over Christmas 2024 were also all from the BBC.

Recent annual reviews have been overshadowed by the Huw Edwards scandal and allegations of a toxic environment around flagship show Strictly Come Dancing.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

Please refresh the page for the latest version.

You can receive breaking news alerts on a smartphone or tablet via the Sky News app. You can also follow us on WhatsApp and subscribe to our YouTube channel to keep up with the latest news.

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Sycamore Gap tree stump ‘showing signs of life’ as men face sentencing for felling landmark

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Sycamore Gap tree stump 'showing signs of life' as men face sentencing for felling landmark

The iconic Sycamore Gap tree “can never be replaced” but its stump is showing signs of life, the National Trust has said, as the two men who felled it face sentencing.

Adam Carruthers, 32, and Daniel Graham, 39, drove 30 miles through a storm from Cumbria to Northumberland on 27 September 2023 before felling the landmark in less than three minutes.

Prosecutors said their “moronic mission” caused more than £620,000 worth of damage to the tree and more than £1,000 worth of damage to Hadrian’s Wall, where it fell.

They took a wedge as a trophy, which has never been recovered, and seemed to revel in the media coverage, exchanging messages and voice notes about the story going “wild” and “viral”.

Footage of the moment the tree was felled was played during the men’s trial at Newcastle Crown Court, where they both denied but were found guilty of two counts of criminal damage.

Adam Carruthers and Daniel Graham. Pic: Northumbria Police/PA
Image:
Adam Carruthers and Daniel Graham. Pic: Northumbria Police/PA

An image of the Sycamore Gap standing, which was shown in evidence. This image was taken at approx. 5.20pm on Wednesday 27 September 2023.
Pic: CPS
Image:
A picture of the tree taken hours before it was felled. Pic: CPS

In a victim impact statement read at their sentencing hearing, National Trust general manager Andrew Poad, said the “iconic tree can never be replaced”.

“While the National Trust has cared for it on behalf of the nation, it belonged to the people,” he wrote.

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“It was a totemic symbol for many; a destination to visit whilst walking Hadrian’s Wall, a place to make memories, take photos in all seasons; but it was also a place of sanctuary – a calming, reflective space that people came to year after year.

“While what was lost cannot be replaced, the stump is showing signs of life, with new shoots emerging at the base – as the decades progress, there is hope that some may grow and establish.”

Mr Poad said the “outpouring of emotion” to the felling was “unprecedented”, with one message from a member of the public described it as “like losing a close family member”.

Pictures were shown in court of a “celebration room” in memory of the tree, including a note which says: “How dare he steal our JOY,” while another reads: “Nature at it’s best over 300 years. Humanity at its worst over one night”.

Mr Poad added: “The overwhelming sense of loss and confusion was felt across the world.

“When it became clear that this was a malicious and deliberate act the question was why anyone would do this to such a beautiful tree in such a special place, it was beyond comprehension.”

Both men deny all charges against them.
Image:
The pair were found guilty of criminal damage

Graham has a previous caution for theft after he cut up a “large quantity of logs using a chainsaw”, the court heard.

He also has convictions for violence including battery and public order offences, which were said to be “relationship-based”, while Carruthers has no previous cautions or convictions.

The tree, which had stood for more than 100 years in a dip in the landscape, held a place in popular culture and was featured in the 1991 Kevin Costner film Robin Hood: Prince Of Thieves.

It also formed part of people’s personal lives, as the scene of wedding proposals, ashes being scattered and countless photographs.

A 6ft section of the trunk is now on public display at The Sill: National Landscape Discovery Centre, around two miles from where it once stood, while 49 saplings taken from the tree have been conserved by the National Trust.

Graham and Carruthers, who were once close friends, gave no explanation for why they targeted the tree, and since their arrests, they have fallen out and come to blame each other.

At their trial, Graham claimed Carruthers had a fascination with the sycamore, saying he had described it as “the most famous tree in the world” and spoken of wanting to cut it down, even keeping a piece of string in his workshop that he had used to measure its circumference.

Carruthers denied this and told the court he could not understand the outcry over the story, saying it was “just a tree”.

Prosecutor Richard Wright KC said the pair have now accepted they went on the mission in pre-sentencing reports.

But Carruthers claimed he was “drunk” and didn’t realise what happened until the next day, while Graham said it was “only when the blade made contact with the tree he realised it was serious,” the court heard.

Mr Wright added: “The court can be sure they were sober, prepared and planned to do exactly what they did.”

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