Interest rate hits ‘shock’ 5% after 0.5 percentage point increase
The Bank of England has shocked economists and investors by raising interest rates half a percentage point to 5% – the highest level since 2008.
Economists had expected the Monetary Policy Committee to raise interest rates by only a quarter percentage point, but the MPC voted 7-2 for the surprise increase, explaining that it was aiming to bring higher-than-expected inflation under control.
It comes after the UK’s official inflation rate failed to fall as expected in May, staying at 8.7% – well above the bank’s 2% target.
In the minutes alongside the decision, the bank said higher inflation, especially services inflation, meant it had to act faster to bring prices under control.
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The Bank of England has raised interest rates for a record-breaking 13th successive time, lifting the cost of borrowing to 5%.
However, with other major central banks around the world now slowing the pace at which they’re increasing interest rates, the move will be seen as a further sign that Britain is becoming something of an outlier.
The UK has higher inflation than any other country in the G7 and is expected to see its interest rates peak higher than other major economies.
Markets expect the bank to carry on raising borrowing costs in the coming months, with interest rates slated to peak at around 6% at the turn of the next year.
In its minutes, the bank reiterated that “If there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures [in inflation], then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.”
Two of the MPC members, Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro, voted to leave interest rates on hold at 4.5%, warning that inflation was likely to fall rapidly in the coming months, and that the full impact of higher bank interest rates had yet to be felt by the wider economy.
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However the rest of the committee voted for the half percentage point increase – an increase which none of the economists recently surveyed by financial news outlets had expected.
“There had been significant upside news in recent data that indicated more persistence in the inflation process, against the background of a tight labour market and continued resilience in demand,” the minutes said.
Some will ask, however, whether this faster-than-expected increase will raise the chances of the UK tipping into recession in the coming months.
The Bank has yet to update its own forecasts to reflect this – that will happen next month.
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The Bank of England has raised interest rates for a record-breaking 13th successive time, lifting the cost of borrowing to 5%.
Mortgage pain
Today’s announcement paves the way for more expensive mortgage bills.
Anyone with a tracker mortgage will feel the effect of rises immediately as their mortgage rate is tied to the bank’s base rate.
For those moving to a fixed rate mortgage they may already have had to sign on to a more costly deal.
Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves accused Jeremy Hunt and Rishi Sunak of “burying their heads in the sand” about the mortgage misery facing householders.
“Families across Britain will be desperately worried about what today’s interest rate rise might mean for them,” she said.
“They want to know that support will be there if they need it.
“Instead, the Chancellor and Prime Minister are burying their heads in the sand and failing to clean up the mess this Tory government has made.”
Government reaction
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said. “High inflation is a destabilising force eating into pay cheques and slowing growth.”
“Core inflation is higher in 14 EU countries and interest rates are rising around the world, but the lesson from other countries is that if you stick to your guns, you bring inflation down.
“Our resolve to do this is watertight because it is the only long-term way to relieve pressure on families with mortgages. If we don’t act now, it will be worse later”.
Four people have been arrested by police investigating cyber attacks targeting M&S, Co-op and Harrods.
A 20-year-old woman and two males, both aged 19, and a male aged 17, were detained in London and the West Midlands this morning as part of a National Crime Agency (NCA) operation.
They were arrested at their homes on suspicion of Computer Misuse Act offences, blackmail, money laundering and participating in the activities of an organised crime group.
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Electronic devices were seized from the suspects and are currently being analysed by forensic experts.
M&S halted online orders, and shelves were empty in shops after the cyber attack on the retailer earlier this year.
The initial hack into the retailer’s systems took place in April through “sophisticated impersonation” involving a third party.
Disruption is expected to continue at the retailer until the end of this month.
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Mickey Carroll in May answered why M&S cyber attack was so bad.
The Co-op and Harrods were also subsequently targeted by hackers.
Paul Foster, head of the NCA’s National cybercrime unit described the arrests as a “significant step” in their investigation, which remains “one of the Agency’s highest priorities”.
He added: “…our work continues, alongside partners in the UK and overseas, to ensure those responsible are identified and brought to justice.”
The National Crime Agency is keen to “signal” to “future victims” the “importance of seeking support and engaging with law enforcement”, stating that “the NCA and policing are here to help”.
The NCA has also thanked M&S, Co-op and Harrods for their support in their investigations.
The arrests, which took place early on Thursday morning, were supported by officers from the West Midlands Regional Organised Crime Unit and the East Midlands Special Operations Unit.
Earlier this week, the chairman of M&S told MPs that the hack had been “traumatic” and like an “out-of-body experience”.
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Archie Norman, however, refused to be drawn on whether the retailer had paid any ransom.
“We are not discussing any of the details of our interaction with the threat actor, including this subject, but that subject is fully shared with the NCA,” he said.
It is estimated that the cyber attack will cost M&S up to £300m this year.
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Days after M&S was attacked, the Co-op was targeted and forced to shut down some internal systems.
Harrods was then hacked, and also had to shut some systems despite its website and shops continuing to operate.
Of those arrested, a 17-year-old British male and a 19-year-old Latvian male were from the West Midlands.
A 19-year-old man was from London and a 20-year-old woman from Staffordshire.
Royal Mail is to be allowed to scrap Saturday second-class stamp deliveries, under a series of reforms proposed by the communications regulator.
From 28 July, Royal Mail will also be allowed to deliver second-class letters on alternate weekdays, Ofcom said.
The post will still be delivered within three working days of collection from Monday to Friday.
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The proposals had already been raised by Ofcom after a consultation was announced in 2024, and the scale back was proposed early this year.
Royal Mail had repeatedly failed to meet the so-called universal service obligation to deliver post within set periods of time.
Those delivery targets are now being revised downwards.
Rather than having to have 93% of first-class mail delivered the next day, 90% will be legally allowed.
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The target for second-class mail deliveries will be lowered from 98.5% to arrive within three working days to 95%.
A review of stamp prices has also been announced by Ofcom amid concerns over affordability, with a consultation set to be launched next year.
It’s good news for Royal Mail and its new owner, the Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky. Ofcom estimates the changes will bring savings of between £250m and £425m.
A welcome change?
Unsurprisingly, the company welcomed the announcement.
“It is good news for customers across the UK as it supports the delivery of a reliable, efficient and financially sustainable universal service,” said Martin Seidenberg, the group chief executive of Royal Mail’s parent company, International Distribution Services.
“It follows extensive consultation with thousands of people and businesses to ensure that the postal service better reflects their needs and the realities of how customers send and receive mail today.”
Citizens Advice, however, doubted whether services would improve as a result of the changes.
“Today, Ofcom missed a major opportunity to bring about meaningful change,” said Tom MacInnes, the director of policy at Citizens Advice.
“Pushing ahead with plans to slash services and relax delivery targets in the name of savings won’t automatically make letter deliveries more reliable or improve standards.”
Acknowledging long delays “where letters have taken weeks to arrive”, Ofcom said it set Royal Mail new enforceable targets so 99% of mail has to be delivered no more than two days late.
Changing habits
Less than a third of letters are sent now than 20 years ago, and it is forecast to fall to about a fifth of the letters previously sent.
According to Ofcom research, people want reliability and affordability more than speedy delivery.
Royal Mail has been loss-making in recent years as revenues fell.
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In response to Ofcom’s changes, a government spokesperson said: “The public expects a well-run postal service, with letters arriving on time across the country without it costing the earth. With the way people use postal services having changed, it’s right the regulator has looked at this.
“We now need Royal Mail to work with unions and posties to deliver a service that people expect, and this includes maintaining the principle of one price to send a letter anywhere in the UK”.
Ofcom said it has told Royal Mail to hold regular meetings with consumer bodies and industry groups to hear their experiences implementing the changes.
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