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In a roundabout way, Texas Tech gamed my SP+ ratings in 2022.

I have long written about a measure I call postgame win expectancy — it takes all the plays in a given game, tosses them into the air and, based on the stats that tend to be most predictive (and which feed into SP+), says, “With all these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time.”

Add up all your postgame win expectancies from a given year, and you get what amounts to a second-order win total: “With all these stats this year, you could have expected to win X games on average.”

In Joey McGuire’s first season in charge, Texas Tech’s second-order win total was 5.8 — not bad against a top-15 schedule that featured five SP+ top-20 opponents, and good enough for 32nd overall in SP+. Their actual win total? Eight. In terms of the difference between wins and second-order wins, it was the third-largest overachievement in the country. Only Sun Belt champion Troy and BYU topped it.

The Red Raiders beat Oklahoma 51-48 despite a 39% postgame win expectancy. They comfortably won games against Kansas (43-28) and Ole Miss (42-25) despite pretty tight stats (postgame win expectancy: 65% and 69%, respectively). And against Texas in September, they pulled off an absolute magic act, beating the Longhorns 37-34 in overtime despite getting outgained by 2.3 yards per play (7.1 to 4.8) and generating a far worse overall success rate (48% to 37%). Postgame win expectancy against Texas: 2%. On average, these four games should have produced about 1.8 wins; Tech won all four.

Was this lucky? Perhaps. Tech did recover all three fumbles in the win over Texas — two of their own (on drives that produced 10 points) and one from Texas in overtime (which ended the game) — and fell on an unsustainable number of loose balls throughout the season. But they also rigged these games in their favor with an extreme willingness to go for it on fourth down.

The Red Raiders were 6-for-8 on fourth downs against Texas, and for the season they went for it a whopping 52 times, easily the most in the country.

Of these 52 attempts, Tech converted 33 and went on to score 129 points after these conversions. After the 19 failures, they allowed 44 points. That’s a profit of plus-85 points, or nearly a touchdown per game over 13 contests. Yes, there was a bit of good fortune in overachieving their win expectancies. But it wasn’t all luck. McGuire played the odds, used fourth down as a win opportunity and won games with it.

Your coach could do the same.

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Tigers’ Baddoo to miss start of regular season

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Tigers' Baddoo to miss start of regular season

LAKELAND, Fla. — Detroit Tigers outfielder Akil Baddoo had surgery to repair a broken bone in his right hand and will miss the start of the regular season.

Manager A.J. Hinch said Friday that Baddoo had more tests done after some continued wrist soreness since the start of spring training. Those tests revealed the hamate hook fracture in his right hand that was surgically repaired Thursday.

Baddoo, 26, who has been with the Tigers since 2021, is at spring training as a non-roster player. He was designated for assignment in December after Detroit signed veteran right-hander Alex Cobb to a $15 million, one-year contract. Baddoo cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Toledo.

Cobb is expected to miss the start of the season after an injection to treat hip inflammation that developed as the right-hander was throwing at the start of camp. He has had hip surgery twice.

Baddoo hit .137 with two homers and five RBIs in 31 games last season. The left-hander has a .226 career average with 28 homers and 103 RBI in 340 games.

After the Tigers acquired him from Minnesota in the Rule 5 draft at the winter meetings in December 2020, Baddoo hit .259 with 13 homers, 55 RBIs, 18 stolen bases and a .330 on-base percentage in 124 games as a rookie in 2021. Those are all career bests.

Baddoo went into camp in a crowded outfield. The six outfielders on Detroit’s 40-man roster include three other left-handed hitters (Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Parker Meadows) and switch-hitter Wenceel Pérez. The other outfielders are right-handers Matt Vierling and Justyn-Henry Malloy.

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Dodgers’ Miller has no fracture after liner scare

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Dodgers' Miller has no fracture after liner scare

GLENDALE, Ariz. — Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Bobby Miller still had a bit of a headache but slept fine and felt much better a day after getting hit on the head by a line drive, manager Dave Roberts said Friday.

Roberts said he had spoken with Miller, who was still in concussion protocol after getting struck by a 105.5 mph liner hit by Chicago Cubs first baseman Michael Busch in the first game of spring training Thursday.

The manager said Miller indicated that there was no fracture or any significant bruising.

“He said in his words, ‘I have a hard head.’ He was certainly in good spirits,” Roberts said.

Miller immediately fell to the ground while holding his head, but quickly got up on his knees as medical staff rushed onto the field. The 25-year-old right-hander was able to walk off the field on his own.

“He feels very confident that he can kind of pick up his throwing program soon,” said Roberts, who was unsure of that timing. “But he’s just got to keep going through the concussion protocol just to make sure that we stay on the right track.”

Miller entered spring training in the mix for a spot in the starting rotation. He had a 2-4 record with an 8.52 ERA over 13 starts last season, after going 11-4 with a 3.76 in 22 starts as a rookie in 2023.

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Brewers OF Perkins (shin) to miss start of season

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Brewers OF Perkins (shin) to miss start of season

PHOENIX — Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Blake Perkins is expected to miss the first month of the season after fracturing his right shin during batting practice.

Brewers manager Pat Murphy revealed the severity of Perkins’ injury before their Cactus League opener Saturday against the Cincinnati Reds.

“They’re estimating another three to four weeks to heal and a ramp-up of four to six weeks,” Murphy said. “So you’re probably looking at May.”

Perkins, 28, batted .240 with a .316 on-base percentage, six homers, 43 RBIs and 23 steals in 121 games last season. He also was a National League Gold Glove finalist at center field.

“Perkins is a big part of our team,” Murphy said. “The chemistry of the team, the whole thing, Perk’s huge. He’s one of the most loved guys on the club, and he’s a great defender, coming into his own as an offensive player. Yeah, it’s going to hurt us.”

Murphy also said right-handed pitcher J.B. Bukauskas has what appears to be a serious lat injury and is debating whether to undergo surgery. Bukauskas had a 1.50 ERA in six relief appearances last year but missed much of the season with a lat issue.

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