Ukraine is in a strong battlefield position against invading Russian forces but the exile of a rebel mercenary leader to neighbouring Belarus poses a fresh potential threat, a former British Army chief has told Sky News.
While Russian leader Vladimir Putin has been “wounded” by the short-lived rebellion and his frontline troops are demoralised, Lord Dannatt said the Kyiv government should guard against a cross-border attack from Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group.
The former chief of the general staff was speaking to the Sophy Ridge On Sunday show following the turmoil in Russia that saw Prigozhin’s private army advance on Moscow.
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4:26
Russia revolt: How it happened
Wagner troops have played a crucial role in the Ukraine war, capturing the eastern city of Bakhmut, but Prigozhin has increasingly criticised the military top brass, accusing it of incompetence and depriving his troops of ammunition.
The brief revolt ended after Prigozhin reached a deal with the Kremlin that will see him move to Belarus, which has supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Despite Putin accusing his one-time ally of treason and mutiny, charges against him of mounting an armed rebellion were dropped.
Moscow also said it would not prosecute Wagner fighters who took part in the insurrection.
In allowing Prigozhin and his forces to go free, the Kremlin said Putin’s “highest goal” was “to avoid bloodshed”.
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0:57
Wagner leader’s audio message calling off advance
Ukrainians had hoped the Russian infighting would create opportunities for their army to take back territory seized by Russian forces.
But Lord Dannatt said: “Apparently he’s left the stage to go to Belarus but is that the end of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group? The fact that he’s gone to Belarus is I think a matter of some concern.
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1:55
Ukraine needs to make sure they have units that could repel attack from Belarus, says ex-UK army chief
“What we don’t know, what we will discover in the next hours and days is… how many of his fighters have actually gone with him.
“If he has gone to Belarus and has kept an effective fighting force around him, he then presents a threat again to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kyiv which is where all this began on 24 February last year.
“Although it would appear that this matter is closed I think it is far from closed and the aftershocks will reverberate for quite some time.
“They (Ukraine) need to watch that flank very carefully and make sure they have got some manoeuvre units such that they could repel a renewed attack from the direction of Belarus.”
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Image: Wagner troops reportedly advanced north to 120 miles (200km) from Moscow when their convoy turned back
On the wider conflict, the independent crossbench peer added: “The Ukrainians, I’m sure, have got uppermost in their mind the morale of their opponents, the average Russian soldier is pretty low.
“And that’s why if they can find some points of weakness along the Russian defensive lines and exploit those with one or two decisive blows, it could have a disproportionate effect in shattering the morale and the backbone of the Russian army and produce some quite significant success.
“Ukraine remains in a strong position against an enemy, albeit in prepared defensive positions, with low morale and a disjointed command and control structure at the present moment, whose political leader undoubtedly has been wounded by events in the past.”
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4:59
Putin accuses Prigozhin of treason
But he warned: “I think we’ve got to watch very carefully to see what Prigozhin and his Wagner troops do. And there is a possible threat that they might pose from Belarus to Kyiv. If I was the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, I would watch that front very carefully.”
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0:38
Putin ‘very afraid’, says Zelenskyy
Meanwhile, former MI6 officer Christopher Steele told Sky News the brief uprising had damaged the Russian leader.
He told Sky News: “What’s changed I think is that Vladimir Putin has lost authority and legitimacy within Russia and has been challenged in a way, yes he’s managed to worm his way out of it for the present.
“To see events unfold in Russia yesterday and the speed with which the situation seemed to spiral out of control must be very concerning for Putin and the people around him.”
Chief Secretary to the Treasury John Glen told the Ridge programme: “It is obviously a very unstable situation in Russia, but it is fundamentally an internal matter.
“This isn’t a matter that we will be intervening in, but obviously we observe and monitor the situation on an ongoing basis very carefully.”
Ten explosions have been heard near Srinagar International Airport in India-administered parts of Kashmir, officials have told Reuters news agency.
The blasts followed blackouts caused by multiple projectiles, which were seen in the sky above the city of Jammu earlier on Friday.
Explosions were also heard in the Sikh holy city of Amritsar, in the neighbouring Punjab state, according to Reuters.
An Indian military official told the agency that “drones have been sighted” and “they are being engaged”.
It comes as tensions between Indiaand Pakistanacross the line of control around the region of Kashmirhave boiled over this week, leading to fears of a wider conflict.
On Wednesday morning, Indiacarried out missile strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered parts of the disputed region.
The government in India said it hit nine “terrorist infrastructure” sites, while Pakistan said it was not involved in the April attack and the sites were not militant bases.
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3:09
Explained: India-Pakistan conflict
Around 48 people have been killed since Wednesday, according to casualty estimates on both sides – which have not been independently verified.
India also suspended its top cricket tournament, the Indian Premier League, as a result of rising tensions, while the Pakistan Super League moved the remainder of its season to the United Arab Emirates.
Meanwhile, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a conference on Friday that the US is in constant contact with both India and Pakistan.
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Conclaves are famously unpredictable affairs – and once again the election of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as the new pope caught many by surprise.
The newly elected Pope Leo XIV won the consensus of the 133 cardinal electors after only four ballots – a fast process for a diverse college of cardinals.
Though his name had circulated among some Vatican watchers, other cardinals had emerged as clear front-runners, including Pietro Parolin – the Vatican’s number two who would have been the first Italian in almost 50 years to become pontiff – or Luis Tagle, a Filipino cardinal looking to become the first Asian pope.
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0:58
What are the conclave’s secrecy measures?
Instead, it was the first North American to win the highly secretive process.
So, what went on behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel?
Until Thursday lunchtime, Cardinal Parolin was ahead, gathering between 45 and 55 votes, sources say.
A substantial number, but well short of the 89 votes he needed for a two-thirds majority.
At this point, Cardinal Prevost had between 34 and 44 votes.
But as the Italian struggled to grow his support during the first three rounds of voting, he stepped down from the race, endorsing Prevost instead, Sky News understands.
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1:14
Who is Pope Leo?
An internal battle between Luis Tagle and Pablo Virgilio David – both cardinals hailing from Asia – cancelled out both of their chances.
And a contender from Africa – the most conservative sector of the church – was never likely for a conclave where the overwhelming majority of cardinals had been appointed by Francis, a progressive pontiff, sources say.
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1:25
Moment new pope emerges on balcony
An American pope has long been seen as highly improbable, given the geopolitical power of the US.
But Cardinal Prevost was able to draw from across the groups making up the electors: moderate US cardinals, South American cardinals and many European cardinals all coalesced around him.
Italian newspaper La Repubblica said Prevost “certainly attracted cross-party preferences, both ideologically and geographically”.
“In the conclave he was the least American of Americans: Born in Chicago, he lived 20 years in Peru,” the newspaper said.
It added: “As a man used to teamwork, Prevost appeared to many as the right man to make the papacy evolve into a more collegial form.”
Standing on Red Square, this was an intimidating sight, which felt much more like a celebration of war rather than peace.
I could feel the ground shake as the tanks rolled past, their caterpillar tracks on the ancient cobbles providing a deafening clatter.
The hairs on the back of my neck stood up in fear as the phalanxes of troops roared “Hurrah” in response to their commander in chief.
And the sight of combat drones being paraded on their launchers was actually quite sickening. Weapons that have been at the forefront of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were paraded in a show of pomp and patriotism.
Image: Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin watch the procession. Pic: Reuters
For the rest of Europe, the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War has been a celebration of peace, but this felt much more like a celebration of war.
And it wasn’t just military hardware on display here, but the very identity of modern Russia.
Image: Pic: Reuters
For this is a country that is now defined by its military and its memory. The glory and sacrifice of 1945 have been weaponised to give credence to Russia’s current course and to make people believe that victory is their right.
For Russians, it served as a rallying cry and there was applause when the troops who have fought against Ukraine marched past.
But for those watching in Kyiv and other European capitals, it was an overt warning that Moscow has no intention of backing down.
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0:49
Putin hails sacrifice of Russian troops
The parade was considerably larger in scale than in recent years, when units and hardware have been needed on the battlefield. I think it was a deliberate attempt to project an image of confidence, and so was Vladimir Putin‘s positioning of his guests.
China’s Xi Jinping was given a prime position on the Kremlin leader’s right-hand side. It was no surprise given the economic lifeline Beijing has provided, but it felt like a particularly pointed gesture to the West – that they were looking at a new world order.
Despite that appearance of confidence, there were signs of Moscow’s unease that the parade could be disrupted.
There were snipers on every rooftop. Security was extremely tight. And the mobile internet signal across the city centre was completely shut down for fear of Ukrainian drone attacks, meaning none of the international media that had gathered could broadcast any live transmissions.
After the parade finished, Putin saluted the crowds as they spontaneously erupted into rhythmic shouts of “Rus-si-ya” at the sight of him.
Another PR coup complete without interruption, he will have departed as a very happy man.