Ukraine should watch exiled Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin very carefully, warns former UK army chief
Ukraine is in a strong battlefield position against invading Russian forces but the exile of a rebel mercenary leader to neighbouring Belarus poses a fresh potential threat, a former British Army chief has told Sky News.
While Russian leader Vladimir Putin has been “wounded” by the short-lived rebellion and his frontline troops are demoralised, Lord Dannatt said the Kyiv government should guard against a cross-border attack from Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group.
The former chief of the general staff was speaking to the Sophy Ridge On Sunday show following the turmoil in Russia that saw Prigozhin’s private army advance on Moscow.
Ukraine-Russia war latest: ‘Something smells off’ with peace deal
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Russia revolt: How it happened
Wagner troops have played a crucial role in the Ukraine war, capturing the eastern city of Bakhmut, but Prigozhin has increasingly criticised the military top brass, accusing it of incompetence and depriving his troops of ammunition.
The brief revolt ended after Prigozhin reached a deal with the Kremlin that will see him move to Belarus, which has supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Despite Putin accusing his one-time ally of treason and mutiny, charges against him of mounting an armed rebellion were dropped.
Moscow also said it would not prosecute Wagner fighters who took part in the insurrection.
In allowing Prigozhin and his forces to go free, the Kremlin said Putin’s “highest goal” was “to avoid bloodshed”.
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Wagner leader’s audio message calling off advance
Ukrainians had hoped the Russian infighting would create opportunities for their army to take back territory seized by Russian forces.
But Lord Dannatt said: “Apparently he’s left the stage to go to Belarus but is that the end of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group? The fact that he’s gone to Belarus is I think a matter of some concern.
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Ukraine needs to make sure they have units that could repel attack from Belarus, says ex-UK army chief
“What we don’t know, what we will discover in the next hours and days is… how many of his fighters have actually gone with him.
“If he has gone to Belarus and has kept an effective fighting force around him, he then presents a threat again to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kyiv which is where all this began on 24 February last year.
“Although it would appear that this matter is closed I think it is far from closed and the aftershocks will reverberate for quite some time.
“They (Ukraine) need to watch that flank very carefully and make sure they have got some manoeuvre units such that they could repel a renewed attack from the direction of Belarus.”
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Prigozhin cheered as he leaves city
Read more:
How the revolt led by ‘Putin’s Chef’ unfolded
Aborted mutiny busts the myth that Putin is infallible
The former hot dog seller and thug who became Wagner boss at centre of mutiny
Wagner troops reportedly advanced north to 120 miles (200km) from Moscow when their convoy turned back
On the wider conflict, the independent crossbench peer added: “The Ukrainians, I’m sure, have got uppermost in their mind the morale of their opponents, the average Russian soldier is pretty low.
“And that’s why if they can find some points of weakness along the Russian defensive lines and exploit those with one or two decisive blows, it could have a disproportionate effect in shattering the morale and the backbone of the Russian army and produce some quite significant success.
“Ukraine remains in a strong position against an enemy, albeit in prepared defensive positions, with low morale and a disjointed command and control structure at the present moment, whose political leader undoubtedly has been wounded by events in the past.”
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Putin accuses Prigozhin of treason
But he warned: “I think we’ve got to watch very carefully to see what Prigozhin and his Wagner troops do. And there is a possible threat that they might pose from Belarus to Kyiv. If I was the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, I would watch that front very carefully.”
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Putin ‘very afraid’, says Zelenskyy
Meanwhile, former MI6 officer Christopher Steele told Sky News the brief uprising had damaged the Russian leader.
He told Sky News: “What’s changed I think is that Vladimir Putin has lost authority and legitimacy within Russia and has been challenged in a way, yes he’s managed to worm his way out of it for the present.
“To see events unfold in Russia yesterday and the speed with which the situation seemed to spiral out of control must be very concerning for Putin and the people around him.”
Chief Secretary to the Treasury John Glen told the Ridge programme: “It is obviously a very unstable situation in Russia, but it is fundamentally an internal matter.
“This isn’t a matter that we will be intervening in, but obviously we observe and monitor the situation on an ongoing basis very carefully.”
US president-elect Donald Trump has suggested Israel and Hamas could agree a Gaza ceasefire by the end of the week.
Talks between Israeli and Hamas representatives resumed in the Qatari capital Doha yesterday, after US President Joe Biden indicated a deal to stop the fighting was “on the brink” on Monday.
A draft agreement has been sent to both sides. It includes provisions for the release of hostages and a phased Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza.
Qatar says Israel and Hamas are at their “closest point” yet to a ceasefire deal.
Two Hamas officials said the group has accepted the draft agreement, with Israel still considering the deal.
An Israeli official said a deal is close but “we are not there” yet.
More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its ground offensive in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.
Read more:
What’s in the proposed deal?
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on beachfront cafe in Deir al Balah. Pic: Reuters
Biden hails possibility of agreement
President Biden said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians, in his final foreign policy speech as president.
“So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. Palestinian people deserve peace,” he said.
“The deal would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”
Qatari mediators have sent Israel and Hamas a draft proposal for an agreement to halt the fighting.
Analysis:
Deal might be close, but there are many unanswered questions
Pic: Reuters
Trump: ‘We’re very close’
President-elect Donald Trump has also discussed a possible peace deal during a phone interview with the Newsmax channel.
“We’re very close to getting it done and they have to get it done,” he said.
“If they don’t get it done, there’s going to be a lot of trouble out there, a lot of trouble, like they have never seen before.
“And they will get it done. And I understand there’s been a handshake and they’re getting it finished and maybe by the end of the week. But it has to take place, it has to take place.”
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Donald Trump’s inauguration 2.0
Pic: AP
Israeli official: Former Hamas leader held up deal
Speaking on Tuesday as negotiations resumed in Qatar, an anonymous Israeli official said that an agreement was “close, but we are not there”.
They accused Hamas of previously “dictating, not negotiating” but said this has changed in the last few weeks.
“Yahya Sinwar was the main obstacle for a deal,” they added.
Sinwar, believed to be the mastermind of the 7 October attacks, led Hamas following the assassination of his predecessor but was himself killed in October last year.
Under Sinwar, the Israeli official claimed, Hamas was “not in a rush” to bring a hostage deal but this has changed since his death and since the IDF “started to dismantle the Shia axis”.
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Biden: ‘Never, never, never, ever give up’
Iran ‘weaker than it’s been in decades’
Yesterday, President Biden also hailed Washington’s support for Israel during two Iranian attacks in 2024.
“All told, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades,” the president said.
Mr Biden claimed America’s adversaries were weaker than when he took office four years ago and that the US was “winning the worldwide competition”.
“Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are
weaker,” he said.
“We have not gone to war to make these things happen.”
The US president is expected to give a farewell address on Wednesday.
A draft ceasefire deal on the table between Israel and Hamas would see 33 hostages set free and a phased withdrawal of IDF forces from parts of Gaza.
President Joe Biden said an agreement to stop the fighting was “on the brink” and high level negotiations between the two sides resumed in Qatar on Tuesday.
The deal would see a number of things happen in a first stage, with negotiations for the second stage beginning in the third week of the ceasefire.
It would also allow a surge in humanitarian aid into Gaza, which has been devastated by more than a year of war.
Details of what the draft proposal entails have been emerging on Tuesday, reported by Israeli and Palestinian officials.
Relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages hold photos of their loved ones during a protest on 8 January. Pic: AP
Hostages to be returned
In the first stage of the potential ceasefire, 33 hostages would be set free.
These include women (including female soldiers), children, men over the age of 50, wounded and sick.
Israel believes most of these hostages are alive but there has not been any official confirmation from Hamas.
In return for the release of the hostages, Israel would free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
People serving long sentences for deadly attacks would be included in this but Hamas fighters who took part in the 7 October attack would not be released.
An arrangement to prevent Palestinian “terrorists” from going back to the West Bank would be included in the deal, an anonymous Israeli official said.
Read more:
A timeline of events since the 7 October attacks
The hostages who still haven’t returned home
Smoke billows as buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
The agreement also includes a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, with IDF troops remaining in the border perimeter to defend Israeli border towns and villages.
Security arrangements would be implemented at the Philadelphi corridor – a narrow strip of land that runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza – with Israel withdrawing from parts of it after the first few days of the deal.
The Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza would start to work gradually to allow the crossing of people who are sick and other humanitarian cases out of Gaza for treatment.
Unarmed North Gaza residents would be allowed to return to their homes, with a mechanism introduced to ensure no weapons are moved there.
“We will not leave the Gaza Strip until all our hostages are back home,” the Israeli official said.
What will happen to Gaza in the future?
There is less detail about the future of Gaza – from how it will be governed, to any guarantees that this agreement will bring a permanent end to the war.
“The only thing that can answer for now is that we are ready for a ceasefire,” the Israeli official said.
“This is a long ceasefire and the deal that is being discussed right now is for a long one. There is a big price for releasing the hostages and we are ready to pay this price.”
The international community has said Gaza must be run by Palestinians, but there has not been a consensus about how this should be done – and the draft ceasefire agreement does not seem to address this either.
In the past, Israel has said it will not end the war leaving Hamas in power. It also previously rejected the possibility of the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited governing powers in the West Bank, from taking over the administration of Gaza.
Since the beginning of its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has also said it would retain security control over the territory after the fighting ends.
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