Wagner Group rebellion in Russia: Aborted mutiny busts the myth that Putin is infallible
As mutinies go, the march by mercenaries on Moscow was anti-climatic, but history will likely remember 24 June as the moment Vladimir Putin’s grip on power started to slip.
The Russian president, looking rattled, was forced to give a televised statement to rage against what he called an act of treason and threaten dire punishment to the perpetrators.
But the Kremlin then cut some kind of deal with the head of the Wagner private army as his men were barely 100 miles from the gates of Moscow.
Live updates – Wagner leader to move to Belarus
Wagner troops reportedly advanced north to 120 miles (200km) from Moscow when their convoy turned back
It saw Yevgeny Prigozhin cleared of any criminal charges and given a one-way pass to next door Belarus, leaving Russia’s strongman still in post but visibly weakened.
Of course, he will seek to use this moment of maximum vulnerability to crack down ever harder on dissent and impose his authoritarian rule.
Yet the last 24 hours have busted the myth that the Russian leader – the dominant force in his country for the past 23 years – is infallible in the eyes of both his allies and his enemies.
That matters at a time when Putin is already having to defy gravity by defending his invasion of Ukraine as a just war in the national interest, even as he loses tens of thousands of soldiers, expends huge amounts of firepower and his country reels from global sanctions.
What a turnaround for a president who thought the Ukraine war would be won in a matter of days.
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Putin accuses Prigozhin of treason
Instead, almost one and a half years later, it is his authority that is in doubt, while Ukrainian forces, backed by Western weapons, push on with a counteroffensive against his troops.
Putin has not only been proved wrong on Ukraine but also in his nurturing of Prigozhin and his mercenaries.
The Wagner Group, its ranks strengthened by thousands of convicts, was granted permission to surge into eastern Ukraine as Russia’s conventional forces faltered.
The president also gave Prigozhin the freedom to launch verbal tirades against the head of the Russian armed forces, General Valeriy Gerasimov, and Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister – a particular target for the Wagner boss’s ire.
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The former hot dog seller who became mercenary boss
Prigozhin was disaster waiting to happen for Putin
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Wagner group cheered in captured city
His insults about their incompetence in leading the war effort would have seen any other Russians hauled off to jail for breaking the country’s strict rules about criticising the special military operation in Ukraine.
But Prigozhin was untouched and became increasingly emboldened.
The intent by Putin had seemingly been to pitch rival factions against each other, ensuring that neither his military chiefs nor his mercenary leader grew so powerful as to pose a threat to the president’s authority.
It is a tactic of divide and rule that has defined his time in power and – until now – proved effective.
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Wagner leader’s audio message calling off advance
But then Prigozhin in a series of audio messages released on social media on Friday went beyond eviscerating Russia’s military to challenging the entire premise of the president’s war.
It was a direct blow to Putin’s authority that went much further than just words.
Suddenly Wagner fighters surged back across the border from Ukraine into Russia to seize the sprawling city of Rostov-on-Don, a key hub for the war effort, and move towards Moscow.
That the mutiny ultimately fizzled out almost does not matter.
The key is that it happened at all in a country where disorder is forbidden.
It is far too soon to be writing Putin’s political obituary.
He still has the all-powerful security forces on his side, while state television channels and newspapers remain obedient and fawning.
But there is no doubt that the events of this weekend have exposed cracks at the heart of the Kremlin in the ultimate, self-inflicted blowback from the war in Ukraine.
World
Ten explosions near international airport in India-administered part of Kashmir, officials say
Ten explosions have been heard near Srinagar International Airport in India-administered parts of Kashmir, officials have told Reuters news agency.
The blasts followed blackouts caused by multiple projectiles, which were seen in the sky above the city of Jammu earlier on Friday.
Explosions were also heard in the Sikh holy city of Amritsar, in the neighbouring Punjab state, according to Reuters.
An Indian military official told the agency that “drones have been sighted” and “they are being engaged”.
It comes as tensions between India and Pakistan across the line of control around the region of Kashmir have boiled over this week, leading to fears of a wider conflict.
On Wednesday morning, India carried out missile strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered parts of the disputed region.
The retaliation came weeks after 26 people, mainly Indian tourists, were shot dead by gunmen in an India-administered part of Kashmir last month.
The government in India said it hit nine “terrorist infrastructure” sites, while Pakistan said it was not involved in the April attack and the sites were not militant bases.
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Explained: India-Pakistan conflict
Around 48 people have been killed since Wednesday, according to casualty estimates on both sides – which have not been independently verified.
India also suspended its top cricket tournament, the Indian Premier League, as a result of rising tensions, while the Pakistan Super League moved the remainder of its season to the United Arab Emirates.
Meanwhile, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a conference on Friday that the US is in constant contact with both India and Pakistan.
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Conclaves are famously unpredictable affairs – and once again the election of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as the new pope caught many by surprise.
The newly elected Pope Leo XIV won the consensus of the 133 cardinal electors after only four ballots – a fast process for a diverse college of cardinals.
Though his name had circulated among some Vatican watchers, other cardinals had emerged as clear front-runners, including Pietro Parolin – the Vatican’s number two who would have been the first Italian in almost 50 years to become pontiff – or Luis Tagle, a Filipino cardinal looking to become the first Asian pope.
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What are the conclave’s secrecy measures?
Instead, it was the first North American to win the highly secretive process.
So, what went on behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel?
Until Thursday lunchtime, Cardinal Parolin was ahead, gathering between 45 and 55 votes, sources say.
A substantial number, but well short of the 89 votes he needed for a two-thirds majority.
At this point, Cardinal Prevost had between 34 and 44 votes.
But as the Italian struggled to grow his support during the first three rounds of voting, he stepped down from the race, endorsing Prevost instead, Sky News understands.
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List of demands in new pope’s in-tray
How does new pope compare to his predecessors?
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Who is Pope Leo?
An internal battle between Luis Tagle and Pablo Virgilio David – both cardinals hailing from Asia – cancelled out both of their chances.
And a contender from Africa – the most conservative sector of the church – was never likely for a conclave where the overwhelming majority of cardinals had been appointed by Francis, a progressive pontiff, sources say.
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Moment new pope emerges on balcony
An American pope has long been seen as highly improbable, given the geopolitical power of the US.
But Cardinal Prevost was able to draw from across the groups making up the electors: moderate US cardinals, South American cardinals and many European cardinals all coalesced around him.
Italian newspaper La Repubblica said Prevost “certainly attracted cross-party preferences, both ideologically and geographically”.
“In the conclave he was the least American of Americans: Born in Chicago, he lived 20 years in Peru,” the newspaper said.
It added: “As a man used to teamwork, Prevost appeared to many as the right man to make the papacy evolve into a more collegial form.”
Standing on Red Square, this was an intimidating sight, which felt much more like a celebration of war rather than peace.
I could feel the ground shake as the tanks rolled past, their caterpillar tracks on the ancient cobbles providing a deafening clatter.
The hairs on the back of my neck stood up in fear as the phalanxes of troops roared “Hurrah” in response to their commander in chief.
And the sight of combat drones being paraded on their launchers was actually quite sickening. Weapons that have been at the forefront of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were paraded in a show of pomp and patriotism.
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin watch the procession. Pic: Reuters
Ukraine war latest: Putin welcomes Xi at Victory Day parade
For the rest of Europe, the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War has been a celebration of peace, but this felt much more like a celebration of war.
And it wasn’t just military hardware on display here, but the very identity of modern Russia.
Pic: Reuters
For this is a country that is now defined by its military and its memory. The glory and sacrifice of 1945 have been weaponised to give credence to Russia’s current course and to make people believe that victory is their right.
For Russians, it served as a rallying cry and there was applause when the troops who have fought against Ukraine marched past.
But for those watching in Kyiv and other European capitals, it was an overt warning that Moscow has no intention of backing down.
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Putin hails sacrifice of Russian troops
The parade was considerably larger in scale than in recent years, when units and hardware have been needed on the battlefield. I think it was a deliberate attempt to project an image of confidence, and so was Vladimir Putin‘s positioning of his guests.
China’s Xi Jinping was given a prime position on the Kremlin leader’s right-hand side. It was no surprise given the economic lifeline Beijing has provided, but it felt like a particularly pointed gesture to the West – that they were looking at a new world order.
Despite that appearance of confidence, there were signs of Moscow’s unease that the parade could be disrupted.
There were snipers on every rooftop. Security was extremely tight. And the mobile internet signal across the city centre was completely shut down for fear of Ukrainian drone attacks, meaning none of the international media that had gathered could broadcast any live transmissions.
After the parade finished, Putin saluted the crowds as they spontaneously erupted into rhythmic shouts of “Rus-si-ya” at the sight of him.
Another PR coup complete without interruption, he will have departed as a very happy man.
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