Wagner Group rebellion in Russia: Aborted mutiny busts the myth that Putin is infallible
As mutinies go, the march by mercenaries on Moscow was anti-climatic, but history will likely remember 24 June as the moment Vladimir Putin’s grip on power started to slip.
The Russian president, looking rattled, was forced to give a televised statement to rage against what he called an act of treason and threaten dire punishment to the perpetrators.
But the Kremlin then cut some kind of deal with the head of the Wagner private army as his men were barely 100 miles from the gates of Moscow.
Live updates – Wagner leader to move to Belarus
Wagner troops reportedly advanced north to 120 miles (200km) from Moscow when their convoy turned back
It saw Yevgeny Prigozhin cleared of any criminal charges and given a one-way pass to next door Belarus, leaving Russia’s strongman still in post but visibly weakened.
Of course, he will seek to use this moment of maximum vulnerability to crack down ever harder on dissent and impose his authoritarian rule.
Yet the last 24 hours have busted the myth that the Russian leader – the dominant force in his country for the past 23 years – is infallible in the eyes of both his allies and his enemies.
That matters at a time when Putin is already having to defy gravity by defending his invasion of Ukraine as a just war in the national interest, even as he loses tens of thousands of soldiers, expends huge amounts of firepower and his country reels from global sanctions.
What a turnaround for a president who thought the Ukraine war would be won in a matter of days.
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Putin accuses Prigozhin of treason
Instead, almost one and a half years later, it is his authority that is in doubt, while Ukrainian forces, backed by Western weapons, push on with a counteroffensive against his troops.
Putin has not only been proved wrong on Ukraine but also in his nurturing of Prigozhin and his mercenaries.
The Wagner Group, its ranks strengthened by thousands of convicts, was granted permission to surge into eastern Ukraine as Russia’s conventional forces faltered.
The president also gave Prigozhin the freedom to launch verbal tirades against the head of the Russian armed forces, General Valeriy Gerasimov, and Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister – a particular target for the Wagner boss’s ire.
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Wagner group cheered in captured city
His insults about their incompetence in leading the war effort would have seen any other Russians hauled off to jail for breaking the country’s strict rules about criticising the special military operation in Ukraine.
But Prigozhin was untouched and became increasingly emboldened.
The intent by Putin had seemingly been to pitch rival factions against each other, ensuring that neither his military chiefs nor his mercenary leader grew so powerful as to pose a threat to the president’s authority.
It is a tactic of divide and rule that has defined his time in power and – until now – proved effective.
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Wagner leader’s audio message calling off advance
But then Prigozhin in a series of audio messages released on social media on Friday went beyond eviscerating Russia’s military to challenging the entire premise of the president’s war.
It was a direct blow to Putin’s authority that went much further than just words.
Suddenly Wagner fighters surged back across the border from Ukraine into Russia to seize the sprawling city of Rostov-on-Don, a key hub for the war effort, and move towards Moscow.
That the mutiny ultimately fizzled out almost does not matter.
The key is that it happened at all in a country where disorder is forbidden.
It is far too soon to be writing Putin’s political obituary.
He still has the all-powerful security forces on his side, while state television channels and newspapers remain obedient and fawning.
But there is no doubt that the events of this weekend have exposed cracks at the heart of the Kremlin in the ultimate, self-inflicted blowback from the war in Ukraine.
World
Tomorrowland: ‘Devastating’ blaze destroys main stage at major festival – two days before it was due to begin
A huge fire has destroyed the main stage of a major festival in Belgium – two days before it was due to begin.
Tomorrowland is a dance music event as big as Glastonbury – and David Guetta was due to perform.
Footage showed flames and thick plumes of black smoke engulfing the stage and spreading to nearby woodland on Wednesday.
The fire gutted the main stage
Fire crews attempt to bring the blaze under control
The annual festival in the town of Boom, north of Brussels, is one of the biggest in Europe and attracts about 400,000 people over two consecutive weekends.
It is famous for its immersive and elaborate designs and attracts big names within dance music – including Guetta, best known for tracks When Love Takes Over and Titanium.
Dutch DJs Martin Garrix and Charlotte de Witte were also due to perform, along with the likes of Swedish House Mafia, Eric Prydz and Alok.
Black smoke could be seen rising into the sky
The festival’s website described the creative elements which went into the elaborate main stage.
The theme, described as Orbyz, was “set in a magical universe made entirely out of ice” and “full of mythical creatures”.
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Organisers said no one was injured in the blaze but confirmed “our beloved main stage has been severely damaged”, adding they were “devastated”.
Spokesperson Debby Wilmsen added: “We received some truly terrible news today. A fire broke out on the Tomorrowland site … and our main stage was essentially destroyed there, which is truly awful.
“That’s a stage that took years to build, with so much love and passion. So I think a lot of people are devastated.”
Spokesperson Debby Wilmsen told reporters ‘a lot of people are devastated’
Despite the fire, Tomorrowland organisers said they were still expecting 38,000 festivalgoers at DreamVille, the event’s campsite.
Israel has shown little respect for international borders since becoming the unrivalled military hegemon of the Middle East. Today that meant an Israeli airstrike on a government building in Damascus.
Israel says its attack on a Syrian defence ministry facility was intended as a warning to the new government: stay out of the part of southern Syria we have occupied or else.
Israel has moved into parts of the south of the country, built military bases and declared a line of control.
Smoke rises from an Israeli airstrike that hit the Syrian Defence Ministry in Damascus. Pic: AP
On Monday, Syrian tanks heading south to try and restore order following an outbreak of factional fighting were attacked by Israeli warplanes.
“The presence of such vehicles in southern Syria could pose a threat to Israel,” stated the Israel Defence Forces.
In reality, Syria’s ageing tanks pose minimal threat to Israel’s state-of-the art military.
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Syrian presenter interrupted by Israeli airstrike
The Syrian armour was attacked as it entered the area around Sweida in the Druze heartland of southern Syria following factional fighting there.
The flare-up reportedly began with clashes between Bedouin and Druze groups that ended in scores killed.
The background to the escalation is complicated.
At least three Druze militia groups are divided in their loyalties to different religious leaders and differ over how they should respond to calls to assimilate into the new post-revolutionary Syria.
Druze from Syria and Israel protest on the Israeli-Syrian border.
Pic: AP
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Israel is becoming more and more involved in Syria’s internecine war and says it will remain there indefinitely “to protect our communities and thwart any threat”.
Its critics say Israel is operating a policy of divide and rule in Syria, weakening the fledgling government and creating a buffer zone to protect the border with the Golan Heights – originally Syrian territory that it has occupied and annexed for almost half a century.
Since the fall of the Assad regime, Israel has used airstrikes to destroy of much of Syria’s military capability weakening its ability to impose control on outlying regions. This makes it more not less likely Israel will have a volatile unstable state on its northern border.
Syrian security forces walk along a street in the southern Druze city of Sweida. Pic: Reuters
America and European powers have chosen to normalise relations with the new government in Damascus and lift sanctions.
In contrast Israel has occupied its territory, bombed its military and today hit one of its government buildings in the capital with an airstrike.
Since its crushing military campaigns against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, Israel has emerged as the unchallenged military power of the region.
There is however a limit to what blunt force can achieve alone. It requires diplomacy to achieve lasting gains and Israel’s repeated assaults on multiple neighbours combined with its relentless campaign in Gaza are winning it few friends in the region.
Israeli airstrikes have targeted the Syrian military headquarters in Damascus amid renewed clashes in the country.
The gate of the Ministry of Defence in the Syrian capital was targeted by two warning missiles from an Israeli reconnaissance aircraft.
State-owned Elekhbariya TV said the Israeli strike had wounded two civilians, the Reuters news agency reported.
Smoke rises from Syria’s defence ministry building in Damascus. Pic: Reuters
It came as Israeli airstrikes targeted security and army vehicles in the southern city of Sweida, where the Druze faith is one of the major religious groups – marking the third consecutive day Israel has struck Syrian forces.
The Israeli military confirmed it had “struck the entrance gate” in Damascus – and that it would be monitoring “actions being taken against Druze civilians in southern Syria”.
The Israeli airstrike targeted Syria’s military headquarters. Pic: AP
Why Israel is getting involved in Syria’s internal fighting
Israel has shown little respect for international borders since becoming the unrivalled military hegemon of the Middle East. Today that meant an Israeli airstrike on a government building in Damascus.
Israel says its attack on a Syrian defence ministry facility was intended as a warning to the new government: stay out of the part of southern Syria we have occupied or else.
Israel has moved into parts of the south of the country, built military bases and declared a line of control.
On Monday, Syrian tanks heading south to try and restore order following an outbreak of factional fighting were attacked by Israeli warplanes.
“The presence of such vehicles in southern Syria could pose a threat to Israel,” stated the Israel Defence Forces.
In reality, Syria’s ageing tanks pose minimal threat to Israel’s state-of-the art military.
Local media said Sweida and nearby villages were coming under heavy artillery and mortar fire on Wednesday, according to Reuters.
The clashes marked the collapse of a ceasefire between Syrian government forces and Druze armed groups, with Israel also warning it would increase its involvement.
Syria said its forces had responded to being fired upon. Pic: Reuters
Israel said it was acting to protect the Druze groups through its attacks on convoys of Syrian forces.
Syria blamed militias in Sweida for violating a ceasefire agreement which had only been reached on Tuesday.
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A statement from its defence ministry said: “Military forces continue to respond to the source of fire inside the city of Sweida, while adhering to rules of engagement to protect residents, prevent harm, and ensure the safe return of those who left the city back to their homes.”
Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said the military will continue to strike Syrian forces until they withdraw and should “leave Druze alone”, according to local reports.
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