As mutinies go, the march by mercenaries on Moscow was anti-climatic, but history will likely remember 24 June as the moment Vladimir Putin’s grip on power started to slip.
The Russian president, looking rattled, was forced to give a televised statement to rage against what he called an act of treason and threaten dire punishment to the perpetrators.
But the Kremlin then cut some kind of deal with the head of the Wagner private army as his men were barely 100 miles from the gates of Moscow.
Of course, he will seek to use this moment of maximum vulnerability to crack down ever harder on dissent and impose his authoritarian rule.
Yet the last 24 hours have busted the myth that the Russian leader – the dominant force in his country for the past 23 years – is infallible in the eyes of both his allies and his enemies.
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That matters at a time when Putin is already having to defy gravity by defending his invasion of Ukraine as a just war in the national interest, even as he loses tens of thousands of soldiers, expends huge amounts of firepower and his country reels from global sanctions.
What a turnaround for a president who thought the Ukraine war would be won in a matter of days.
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5:32
Putin accuses Prigozhin of treason
Instead, almost one and a half years later, it is his authority that is in doubt, while Ukrainian forces, backed by Western weapons, push on with a counteroffensive against his troops.
Putin has not only been proved wrong on Ukraine but also in his nurturing of Prigozhin and his mercenaries.
The Wagner Group, its ranks strengthened by thousands of convicts, was granted permission to surge into eastern Ukraine as Russia’s conventional forces faltered.
The president also gave Prigozhin the freedom to launch verbal tirades against the head of the Russian armed forces, General Valeriy Gerasimov, and Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister – a particular target for the Wagner boss’s ire.
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Wagner group cheered in captured city
His insults about their incompetence in leading the war effort would have seen any other Russians hauled off to jail for breaking the country’s strict rules about criticising the special military operation in Ukraine.
But Prigozhin was untouched and became increasingly emboldened.
The intent by Putin had seemingly been to pitch rival factions against each other, ensuring that neither his military chiefs nor his mercenary leader grew so powerful as to pose a threat to the president’s authority.
It is a tactic of divide and rule that has defined his time in power and – until now – proved effective.
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0:57
Wagner leader’s audio message calling off advance
But then Prigozhin in a series of audio messages released on social media on Friday went beyond eviscerating Russia’s military to challenging the entire premise of the president’s war.
It was a direct blow to Putin’s authority that went much further than just words.
Suddenly Wagner fighters surged back across the border from Ukraine into Russia to seize the sprawling city of Rostov-on-Don, a key hub for the war effort, and move towards Moscow.
That the mutiny ultimately fizzled out almost does not matter.
The key is that it happened at all in a country where disorder is forbidden.
It is far too soon to be writing Putin’s political obituary.
He still has the all-powerful security forces on his side, while state television channels and newspapers remain obedient and fawning.
But there is no doubt that the events of this weekend have exposed cracks at the heart of the Kremlin in the ultimate, self-inflicted blowback from the war in Ukraine.
Russia has launched a massive drone attack on Ukraine’s capital this morning, injuring at least six people, Kyiv’s military administration has said.
Poland closed the airspace near two of its southeastern cities, Lublin and Rzeszow, as its air force scrambled jets in response to Russia’s attack on Kyiv.
Drones flew over Kyiv and anti-aircraft fire rang out through the night in what independent monitors said was one of the biggest strikes on the city since the Ukraine war began in February 2022.
The attack started at around 6am local time and many regions across the country are under air raid alert.
Some residents have fled to metro stations deep underground for safety as the attack continues.
Poland said it had closed its airspace near the two cities until at least 4am GMT due to “unplanned military activity related to ensuring state security”, flight tracking service Flightradar24 said.
“In connection with the activity of the Russian Federation’s long-range aviation carrying out strikes on the territory of Ukraine, Polish and allied aircraft have begun operating in our airspace,” the military said in a post on X.
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It described the actions as preventive and aimed at securing airspace and protecting citizens.
It comes as Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov was expected to address allegations made against Moscow that it has violated the airspace of several of its neighbours in recent weeks, as he spoke in New York at the 80th UN General Assembly.
During his address, Mr Lavrov, who has been Russia’s foreign minister for 21 years, says his country had no intention of attacking any NATO or EU member state but warned of a “decisive response” if any “aggression” was directed towards Moscow.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
Vladimir Putin’s top diplomat says Russia has no intention of attacking any NATO or EU member state but warned of a “decisive response” if any “aggression” was directed towards Moscow.
Sergei Lavrov, Russia‘s foreign minister of 21 years, was speaking in New York at the 80th UN General Assembly, where he said threats against his country by Western nations were becoming “increasingly common”.
He was expected to address allegations made against Moscow that it has violated the airspace of several of its neighbours in recent weeks, heightening tensions across Europe.
Romania and Latvia also reported that single Russian drones had violated their airspace this month.
“Threats of force against Russia, accused of practically planning an attack on the North Atlantic Alliance and the European Union, are becoming increasingly common,” Mr Lavrov said in New York.
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“President Putin has repeatedly debunked such provocations. Russia has never had and does not have such intentions, but any aggression against my country will be met with a decisive response.”
At the start of the week, US President Donald Trump told the UN that NATO nations should shoot down Russian planes in their airspace.
‘They will regret it’
After his UN address, Mr Lavrov held a news conference, where he insisted again that Moscow “has nothing to hide” over the allegations against it.
He was then asked by US correspondent Mark Stone what the Kremlin’s response would be if a nation shot down a Russian drone or plane in Russian airspace.
“Try to understand that a drone, when it is flying not over our territory, but if it crosses someone’s border but has left our airspace, probably everyone has the right to do with that drone whatever they consider necessary to ensure their security.
“But if there are attempts to shoot down any flying object, or indeed any object at all, on our territory, in our airspace, then I think people will seriously regret it, undertaking such a gross violation of our territorial integrity, our sovereignty.”
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2:11
Watch: Sergei Lavrov answers Sky News question in New York
‘Hypocrisy’ over Gaza comments
At the start of his UN speech, Mr Lavrov took time to criticise Israel’s actions in the Middle East, accusing it of trying to “blow up” the region and saying it had “no justification” for the “brutal killings” of Palestinians in Gaza.
“The illegal use of force against the Palestinians and aggressive actions against Iran, Qatar, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq today threaten to blow up the entire Middle East.”
He also hit out at Israeli plans to annex the West Bank: “There is no justification for plans to annex the West Bank. This is essentially a coup d’etat in diplomatic terms.”
Israel has repeatedly claimed that it does not target civilians in Gaza and says its military actions across the Middle East are strategically vital for its self-defence.
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2:44
Mark Stone reflects on Sergei Lavrov’s UN address
Mark Stone said Mr Lavrov’s comments on Israel’s actions will be seen as highly hypocritical given Russia’s war in Ukraine which began in February 2022.
“Lavrov said Israel is bombing schools, it is bombing hospitals in Gaza,” Stone said.
“Well, remember Mariupol and the rest of those cities in Ukraine, where Russia has and continues to do just the same thing? There’s a certain hypocrisy there, for sure.”
Image: Mr Netanyahu held a map and crossed out threats he said had been eliminated. Pic: Reuters
He said loudspeakers had been put up around the territory and said Israeli spies had hacked mobile phones in Gaza so they carried his voice.
To the hostages he said: “We have not forgotten you… we will not falter, we will not rest until we have brought all of you home.”
To Hamas’s leadership, he said: “Lay down your arms… free the hostages now. If you do you will live, if you don’t Israel will hunt you down.”
He hit out at “false charge of genocide” and said: “If Hamas agrees to demands, war could end.”
Mr Netanyahu held a map of the region and crossed out the various threats he said had been eliminated, such as Hezbollah and Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
“Israel rebounded from its darkest day to deliver one of the most stunning military comebacks in history,” he said.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump said he believes the US has reached a deal on easing fighting in Gaza, saying it “will get the hostages back” and “end the war”.
“I think we maybe have a deal on Gaza, very close to a deal on Gaza,” the US president told reporters on the White House lawn as he was leaving to attend the Ryder Cup.
Mr Trump has repeatedly claimed an agreement to end the war was imminent, only for nothing to materialise. Weeks ago he said: “I think we’re going to have a deal on Gaza very soon.”
Image: There were protests outside the UN building. Pic: Reuters
It comes soon after the UK, France, Canada and Australia formally recognised a Palestinian state in an effort to keep alive the prospect of a two-state solution.
The war in Gaza has been going on for nearly two years, with UN agencies and its chief repeatedly warning over the dire humanitarian situation.
Israel’s recently launched ground assault on Gaza City has only heightened concerns and seen thousands flee south in fear for their lives.
Israel says it’s designed to destroy what remains of Hamas after its October 2023 terror attack killed more than 1,200 people and kidnapped 251.
The Israeli leader insisted Israel had to “finish the job” to ensure the atrocity is not repeated.
“They beheaded men. They raped women. They burned babies alive. They burned babies alive in front of their parents,” he told the UN.
Even before Benjamin Netanyahu started to speak, dozens of diplomats walked out. His Israeli team attempted to distract from their actions by cheering and giving their Prime Minister a standing ovation.
Almost immediately, Netanyahu did what he often does during these speeches – presenting props and a map of the region, ticking off one by one the threats that have long been posed against his country.
However, while he attempted to remind the few still seated to listen to his speech at the UN General Assembly of the horrors of 7 October, it was clear that this was a leader now isolated.
His journey to New York was complicated as he snaked around European countries to avoid an ICC arrest warrant.
Netanyahu’s speech was broadcast live into Gaza via Israeli military vehicles carrying loudspeakers – where he sent a message to the hostages and issued a threat to Hamas: “Lay down your arms, free the hostages.”
Some of his country’s staunchest allies – Britain, France, Australia, and Canada – recognised a Palestinian state just this week. It now also appears that his strongest ally, Donald Trump, has had enough and wants this war to end.
The US president, in a meeting with Muslim and Arab leaders, has attempted to reassure them that he will bring an end to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza and ban Benjamin Netanyahu from annexing the West Bank.
In an exclusive interview with Sky News, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister told me Trump is “very, very committed” to a pathway to peace to end the suffering of the Palestinian people.
Netanyahu is due to meet Donald Trump early next week. The question is, will he finally put the kind of pressure on the Israeli prime minister that the international community is demanding?
Mr Netanyahu previously condemned the recognition of a Palestinian state by Western powers, saying it only rewarded Hamas and made it harder to win the release of the remaining hostages.
There are fears he could retaliate by annexing the West Bank and recognising Israeli control over illegal settlements.
However, Mr Trump – the only world leader believed to hold any sway over Israel – told reporters yesterday he would “not allow it”.
The Israeli leader is subject to an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, which has accused him of crimes against humanity, which he denies.
More than 65,000 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed in the war, according to the country’s Hamas-run health ministry.
Ninety per cent of its population has also been displaced by attacks that have flattened most of the territory and left many people desperately short of food.
‘Weak-kneed’ Western leaders
The Israeli prime minister told the UN “the war could end right now” if Gaza agreed to its demands.
“Israel would retain overriding security control, and a peaceful civilian authority would be established by Gazans and others committed to peace with Israel.”
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1:54
Israeli PM accuses countries of ‘buckling’ under pressure
He also hit out at “weak-kneed” Western leaders who he accused of giving in to biased media and antisemitic mobs.
“For much of the past two years, Israel has had to fight a seven-front war against barbarism, with many of your nations opposing us,” said Mr Netanyahu.
He denied his military was deliberately targeting civilians and referenced an assessment that it was taking more “measures to minimise civilian casualties than any military in history”.
Denying genocide claims, the prime minister said the “truth had been turned on its head” and cited his forces dropping millions of leaflets and sending text messages telling people to flee prior to attacks.