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This image shows how the sun’s appearance changes between solar maximum (on the left) and solar minimum (on the right). (Image credit: NASA/Solar Dynamics Observatory)

From a distance, the sun may seem calm and steady. But zoom in, and our home star is actually in a perpetual state of flux, transforming over time from a uniform sea of fire to a chaotic jumble of warped plasma and back again in a recurring cycle. 

Every 11 years or so, the sun’s magnetic field gets tangled up like a ball of tightly wound rubber bands until it eventually snaps and completely flips — turning the north pole into the south pole and vice versa. In the lead-up to this gargantuan reversal, the sun amps up its activity: belching out fiery blobs of plasma, growing dark planet-size spots and emitting streams of powerful radiation.

This period of increased activity, known as solar maximum, is also a potentially perilous time for Earth, which gets bombarded by solar storms that can disrupt communications, damage power infrastructure, harm some living creatures (including astronauts) and send satellites plummeting toward the planet.

And some scientists think the next solar maximum may be coming sooner — and be much more powerful — than we thought. 

Originally, scientists predicted that the current solar cycle would peak in 2025. But a bumper crop of sunspots, solar storms and rare solar phenomena suggest solar maximum could arrive by the end of this year at the earliest — and several experts told Live Science we are poorly prepared. 

Related: 10 signs the sun is gearing up for its explosive peak — the solar maximum What causes the solar cycle? 

Approximately every 11 years, the sun goes from a low point in solar activity, known as solar minimum, to solar maximum and back again. It’s not clear exactly why the sun’s cycles last this long, but astronomers have noted the pattern ever since the first, aptly named Solar Cycle 1, which occurred between 1755 and 1766. The current cycle, Solar Cycle 25, officially began in December 2019, according to NASA.

So what causes our home star’s fluctuation? “It all comes down to the sun’s magnetic field,” Alex James, a solar physicist at University College London in the U.K., told Live Science.

At solar minimum, the sun’s magnetic field is strong and organized, with two clear poles like a normal dipole magnet, James said. The magnetic field acts as a “giant forcefield” that contains the sun’s superheated plasma, or ionized gas, close to the surface, suppressing solar activity, he added.

A butterfly-shaped coronal mass ejection explodes from the sun’s far side on March 10. (Image credit: NASA/Solar and Heliospheric Observatory)

But the magnetic field slowly gets tangled, with some regions becoming more magnetized than others, James said. As a result, the sun’s magnetic field gradually weakens, and solar activity begins to ramp up: Plasma rises from the star’s surface and forms massive magnetized horseshoes, known as coronal loops, that pepper the sun’s lower atmosphere. These fiery ribbons can then snap as the sun’s magnetic field realigns, releasing bright flashes of light and radiation, known as solar flares. Sometimes, flares also bring enormous, magnetized clouds of fast-moving particles, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs).

A few years after the maximum, the sun’s magnetic field “snaps” and then completely flips. This ushers in the end of the cycle and the beginning of a new solar minimum, James said.

Related: Could a solar storm ever destroy Earth?

To determine where we are in the solar cycle, researchers monitor sunspots — darker, cooler, circular patches of our local star’s surface where coronal loops form. 

“Sunspots appear when strong magnetic fields poke through the surface of the sun,” James said. “By looking at those sunspots we can get an idea of how strong and complex the sun’s magnetic field is at that moment.”

A time-lapse image of two major sunspot groups moving across the surface of the sun between Dec. 2 and Dec. 27, 2022. (Image credit: Şenol Şanlı)

Sunspots are almost completely absent at solar minimum and increase in numbers until a peak at solar maximum, but there’s a lot of variation from cycle to cycle.

“Every cycle is different,” James said.Solar Cycle 25 

In April 2019, the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, which is made up of dozens of scientists from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released its forecast for Solar Cycle 25, suggesting that the solar maximum would likely begin sometime in 2025 and would be comparable in size to the maximum of Solar Cycle 24, which peaked unusually late between mid-2014 and early 2016 and was quite weak compared with past solar maximums.

But from the beginning, the forecast seemed off. For instance, the number of observed sunspots has been much higher than predicted. 

In December 2022, the sun reached an eight-year sunspot peak. And in January 2023, scientists observed more than twice as many sunspots as NASA had predicted (143 observed versus 63 estimated), with the numbers staying nearly as high over the following months. In total, the number of observed sunspots has exceeded the predicted number for 27 months in a row. 

While the bounty of sunspots is a major red flag, they are not the only evidence solar maximum could be here soon.

The ghostly lines of the sun’s corona, or upper atmosphere, were clearly visible during a “hybrid eclipse” on April 20. The red ring surrounds a CME that erupted the same day.  (Image credit: Petr Horálek, Josef Kujal, Milan Hlaváč)

Another key indicator of solar activity is the number and intensity of solar flares. In 2022, there were fivefold more C-class and M-class solar flares than there were in 2021, and year on year, the number of the most powerful, X-class solar flares is also increasing, according to SpaceWeatherLive.com. The first half of 2023 logged more X-class flares than in all of 2022, and at least one has directly hit Earth. (Solar flare classes include A, B, C, M and X, with each class being at least 10 times more powerful than the previous one.)

Related: 10 solar storms that blew us away in 2022

Solar flares can also bring geomagnetic storms — major disturbances of Earth’s magnetosphere caused by solar wind or CMEs. For instance, on March 24, a “stealth” CME hit Earth without warning and triggered the most powerful geomagnetic storm in more than six years, which created vast auroras, or northern lights, that were visible in more than 30 U.S. states. An overall increase in the number of geomagnetic storms this year has also caused the temperature in the thermosphere — the second-highest layer of Earth’s atmosphere ― to reach a 20-year peak.

Rare solar phenomena also become increasingly common near solar maximum — and several have happened in recent months. On March 9, a 60,000-mile-tall (96,560 kilometers) plasma waterfall rose above and then fell back towards the sun; on Feb. 2 an enormous polar vortex, or ring of fire, swirled around the sun’s north pole for more than 8 hours; and in March, a “solar tornado” raged for three days and stood taller than 14 Earths stacked on top of each other. 

All this evidence suggests that the solar maximum is “going to peak earlier and it’s going to peak higher than expected,” James told Live Science. This opinion is shared by many other solar physicists, experts told Live Science.Image 1 of 4A “plasma waterfall” rained down on the solar surface on March 9. (Image credit: Eduardo Schaberger Poupeau) A CME measuring around 1 million miles erupted from the sun in September 2022. (Image credit: Andrew McCarthy) A towering “solar tornado” raged on the sun’s surface for three days in March. (Image credit: NASA/SDO/composite by Steve Spaleta) A never-before-seen “polar vortex” appeared around the sun’s north pole on Feb. 2.in (Image credit: NASA/ Solar Dynamics Observatory)

The exact start to solar maximum will likely only be obvious once it has passed and solar activity decreases. However, one research group led by Scott McIntosh, a solar physicist and deputy director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, has predicted  the solar maximum could peak later this year.

Past cycles suggest the solar maximum may last for somewhere between one and two years, though scientists don’t know for sure. Potential impacts on Earth 

So, the solar maximum may be coming on stronger and sooner than we anticipated. Why does that matter?

The answer primarily depends on whether solar storms barrel into Earth, Tzu-Wei Fang, a researcher at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center who was not part of the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, told Live Science. To hit Earth, solar storms must be pointing in the right direction at the right time. Increases in solar activity make this more likely but don’t guarantee the planet will be slammed with more storms, she added. 

But if a solar storm does hit, it can ionize Earth’s upper atmosphere and fuel radio and satellite blackouts. Big storms that block the planet’s connections to satellites can temporarily wipe out long-range radio and GPS  systems for up to half the planet, Fang said. On its own, that is just a minor inconvenience, but if a lengthy blackout coincided with a major disaster, such as an earthquake or tsunami, the results could be catastrophic, she added.

Strong solar storms can also generate ground-based electrical currents that can damage metallic infrastructure, including older power grids and rail lines, Fang said.

Airplane passengers may also be walloped by higher levels of radiation during solar storms, although it’s not clear if the doses would be high enough to have any health impacts, Fang said. However, such spikes in radiation would be much more significant for astronauts onboard spacecraft, such as the International Space Station or the upcoming Artemis mission to the moon. As a result, “future missions should factor solar cycles into consideration,” she added.

Related: Could a powerful solar storm wipe out the internet?

Past research has also revealed that geomagnetic storms can disrupt the migrations of gray whales and other animals that rely on the Earth’s magnetic field lines to navigate, such as sea turtles and some birds, which can have disastrous consequences. 

This blurry image of auroras was taken from an airplane window during a major geomagentic storm on March 24. (Image credit: Dakota Snider)

An ionized upper atmosphere also becomes denser, which can create additional drag for Earth-orbiting satellites. This extra drag can push satellites into each other or force them out of orbit. For instance, In February 2022, 40 of SpaceX’s Starlink satellites burned up in Earth’s atmosphere when they plummeted to Earth during a geomagnetic storm the day after they were launched. 

And the number of satellites has exponentially increased compared with past solar cycles, Fang said. Most are operated by commercial companies that rarely factor space weather into satellite design or launch schedules, she added. 

“Companies want to launch satellites as soon as they can to make sure they don’t delay rocket launches,” Fang said. “Sometimes it’s better for them to launch a group and lose half than not launch at all.” This all raises the risks of major collisions or deorbiting satellites during the solar maximum, she added.

The chances of a once-in-a-century superstorm, such as the Carrington Event in 1859, also slightly increase during solar maximum, Fang said. While a long shot, such a storm could cause trillions of dollars’ worth of damage and majorly impact everyday life, she added.

Humans can do little to shield ourselves from a direct solar storm hit, but we can prepare for them by altering satellite trajectories, grounding planes and identifying vulnerable infrastructure, Fang said. As a result, more accurate solar weather forecasts are needed to help us prepare for the worst, she addedWhy were the forecasts wrong? 

If so many clues point to solar maximum being stronger and earlier than predicted, why didn’t scientists see it coming? Part of the problem is the way the prediction panels come up with their forecasts, Scott McIntosh told Live Science.

NASA and NOAA’s models have barely changed in the last 30 years, “but the science has,” McIntosh said. The models use data from past solar cycles such as sunspot number and cycle length, but do not fully account for each cycle’s individual progression, he added.

Related: When will the sun explode?

“It’s kind of like a big game of pin the tail on the donkey,” McIntosh said, where the “donkey” is the upcoming solar maximum and the prediction panel has blindfolded themselves by not using all available methods at their disposal.   

McIntosh and colleagues have proposed an alternative way to predict the strength of an upcoming solar maximum: so-called “solar terminators,” which occur right at the end of each solar minimum after the sun’s magnetic field has already flipped.

During solar minimum, a localized magnetic field, which is left behind from the sun’s magnetic-field flip, surrounds the sun’s equator. This localized field prevents the sun’s main magnetic field from growing stronger and getting tangled up, meaning the localized field essentially acts like a handbrake preventing solar activity from increasing.

But suddenly and without warning, this localized field disappears, releasing the brake and enabling solar activity to ramp up. This drastic change is what the team dubbed solar cycle termination events, or terminators. (Because solar terminators occur at the exact moment solar minimums end, they occur after each solar cycle has officially begun.)

Looking back over centuries of data, the team identified 14 individual solar terminators that preceded the start of solar maximums. The researchers noticed that the timing of these terminators correlates with the strength of the subsequent solar peaks. (The early years of data are sparse, so the team couldn’t identify solar terminators in every cycle.)

A graph showing the effects of solar terminators on solar cycle progression. The blurry sections represent solar minimum, and the dashed lines show terminator events. Solar activity sharply rises after solar terminators occur. (Image credit: McIntosh etl al. 2003)

For example, the terminator at the start of Solar Cycle 24 happened later than expected, which allowed for less magnetic field growth during Solar Cycle 24, resulting in a weaker solar maximum. But the terminator at the start of Solar Cycle 25, which occurred on Dec. 13, 2021, was earlier than expected, which the researchers took as a sign that the solar maximum would be stronger than the previous one. Ever since the 2021 terminator, solar activity has been ramping up faster than expected. RELATED STORIES—Puzzle of the sun’s mysterious ‘heartbeat’ signals finally solved

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The way Solar Cycle 25 is progressing suggests that solar terminators could be the best way of predicting future solar cycles, McIntosh said. In July 2022, NASA  acknowledged the work done by McIntosh and colleagues and noted that solar activity seemed to be ramping up sooner than expected. 

Still, NASA hasn’t updated its 2025 forecast in light of McIntosh’s data and is probably not going to incorporate terminators into future forecasts, McIntosh predicted. “I think they will just stick with their models.”

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Starmer must delicately balance his risky EU reset as UK braces for Trump’s next move on tariffs

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Starmer must delicately balance his risky EU reset as UK braces for Trump's next move on tariffs

As Donald Trump kicks off his threatened trade war by slapping tariffs on both friends and foes alike, Number 10 is preparing for the moment he turns his attention to the UK.

The unpredictability of the returning president, emboldened by a second term, means the prime minister must plan for every possible scenario.

Under normal circumstances, the special relationship might be the basis for special treatment but the early signs suggest, maybe not.

Donald Trump and Keir Starmer.
Pic:Reuters
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Donald Trump and Keir Starmer. Pic: Reuters

It was never going to be an easy ride, with Sir Keir Starmer’s top team racking up years of insults against Trump when they were in opposition.

The bad feeling continued when Peter Mandelson was proposed as the UK’s new ambassador to the US – prompting speculation he might even be vetoed.

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Tariffs against Canada ‘will put US jobs at risk’

Amid all of this, the much-anticipated call between the two leaders seemed slow to take place, although it was cordial when POTUS finally picked up the phone last Sunday, with a trip to Washington to come “soon”.

It is against this slightly tense backdrop that the future of transatlantic trade will be decided, with Westminster braced for the impact of the president’s next move.

So, it’s unsurprising that as he waits, Sir Keir will spend the next few days resetting a different trading relationship – with Europe.

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Sky’s Ed Conway explains Donald Trump’s plan for tariffs

In this area, he is on slightly firmer ground, as the spectre of a global trade war makes European leaders want to huddle closer together to weather the storm.

And conversely, the Labour government’s track record works in their favour here, as they cash in their pro-EU credentials and wipe the slate clean after the bad-tempered Boris Johnson years.

Read more:
Lib Dem leader shrugs off Musk insult
Home secretary’s warning about recruiting from abroad

Ursula von der Leyen and  Keir Starmer address the media in Brussels.
Pic: Reuters
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Ursula von der Leyen and Keir Starmer address the media in Brussels in October. Pic: Reuters

It is still, however, an ambitious and risky endeavour to begin the delicate process of removing some of the most obstructive post-Brexit bureaucracy.

For minimal economic benefits on both sides, the UK must convince the Europeans that they are not letting Britain “have its cake and eat it”.

At the same time, Brexiteers back at home will cry betrayal at any hint that the UK is sneaking back into the bloc via the back door.

Donald Trump takes questions as he speaks to reporters.
Pic Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

To make it even trickier, it must all be done with one eye on Washington, because while a united Europe may be necessary in the Trump era, the prime minister will not want to seem like he is picking sides so early on.

As with so many things in politics, it’s a delicate balancing act with the most serious of consequences, for a prime minister who is still to prove himself.

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Sir Keir Starmer to urge EU nations to ‘shoulder more of the burden’ on defence spending

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Sir Keir Starmer to urge EU nations to 'shoulder more of the burden' on defence spending

Sir Keir Starmer will urge European countries to commit more in defence spending as he heads to Brussels for security talks.

The prime minister will call on Europe to “step up and shoulder more of the burden” to fend off the threat posed by Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

Sir Keir, the first prime minister to meet all the leaders of the 27 EU nations in Brussels since Brexit, will argue the bloc needs to capitalise on the weak state of the Russian economy by continuing with its sanctions regime.

The prime minister will meet NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday afternoon before travelling to meet with the leaders at an informal meeting of the European Council.

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Sir Keir Starmer with Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, whom he hosted at Chequers on Sunday. Pic: PA

Sir Keir is expected to say: “We need to see all allies stepping up – particularly in Europe.

President Trump has threatened more sanctions on Russia and it’s clear that’s got Putin rattled. We know that he’s worried about the state of the Russian economy.

“I’m here to work with our European partners on keeping up the pressure, targeting the energy revenues and the companies supplying his missile factories to crush Putin’s war machine.

“Because ultimately, alongside our military support, that is what will bring peace closer.”

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Ukrainian soldiers have message for Trump

Sir Keir’s suggestion that EU countries should spend more on defence was criticised by the Conservatives, who have urged the government to increase defence spending to 2.5% of national income.

Shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge said that while “continuing to do everything possible to support Ukraine must remain our top security priority”, it had to accompanied by “urgently increasing defence spending on our own armed forces”.

“Starmer is actually delaying spending 2.5% and, as a result, undermining our ability to rearm at the scale and pace required by the threats we face.”

The prime minister said at the end of last year that he would “set out a path” to lift defence spending to 2.5% of national income in the spring.

The UK says it currently spends around 2.3% of GDP [gross domestic product] on defence.

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy  meet at 10 Downing Street in London, Britain, Oct. 10, 2024. Pic: Reuters
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at 10 Downing Street in October. Pic: Reuters

Last year EU member states spent an average of 1.9% of EU GDP on defence, according to the European Defence Agency, a 30% increase compared with 2021.

Earlier this week European Council President Antonio Costa said the 23 EU members who belong to NATO are likely to agree to raise the defence spending target above the current 2% of national output at the next NATO summit in June.

Read more:
Starmer must delicately balance his risky EU reset
Builder shortage challenging Labour’s growth plans

However, Donald Trump has repeatedly criticised NATO – the military alliance consisting of 30 European countries and the US and Canada – arguing that his country is contributing too much to the alliance’s budget while Europeans contribute too little.

During the US election campaign, President Trump said America would only help defend NATO members from a future attack by Russia if they met their spending obligations.

He also said members of NATO should be contributing 5% of their GDPs to defence spending – rather than the previous target of 2%.

The session of the Informal European Council comes as the government seeks to reset its relationship with the EU and boost areas of cooperation, including on defence and tackling illegal migration.

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Starmer hosts German chancellor

On Sunday the prime minister hosted German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at his country residence Chequers, where the two leaders agreed on the “importance of scaling up and coordinating defence production across Europe”, Downing Street said.

However, the government has repeatedly said that a closer relationship with the EU will only be sought within its red lines – meaning there will be no return to freedom of movement and rejoining the customs union or single market.

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Migrant crossings: Why are more people crossing the Channel on the weekend?

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Migrant crossings: Why are more people crossing the Channel on the weekend?

More people are crossing the English Channel in small boats on the weekend. Our data analysis shows last year 40% of the total number of arrivals happened on a Saturday or Sunday.

We have been looking into possible reasons why many more people are arriving in small boats on the weekend, and the explanation might not be quite what you expect.

More people are crossing the channel in small boats on the weekend.
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More people are crossing the Channel in small boats on the weekend

Here are a few theories.

French staffing and resources

One suggestion is that French border force, police and coastguard are not working to a consistent level seven days a week.

“Gangs have realised there are lower or less engaged staffing on weekends on the French side,” a former senior Home Office official who worked closely on deals with French tells me.

A former immigration minister said they found it “frustrating” that “we were paying the French but weren’t able to specify operational deployments”.

More on Migrant Crisis

They said it would “not surprise me if the French had fewer people at the weekend and the people smugglers have come to realise that”.

Hundreds of millions have been given by the UK to France to police the Calais coast, most recently almost £500m in 2023.

Another former senior government official with responsibility for borders said the French would be able to demonstrate that “hundreds or thousands of officers are working there” but “strategically it suits France to have the gust with us”.

But when we put this to the French side there was a pushback.

Marc de Fleurian, the Calais MP from Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party, says “blaming the other side of the Channel” is the “easy answer”.

He said it’s “cowardly to say it’s the other side’s fault”.

More people cross the Channel on the weekends than any other day.
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More people cross the Channel on the weekends than any other day

Read more:
UK to introduce ‘world first’ sanctions regime to target smugglers
Can government make bold plan bite?
Starmer’s year to prove he can deliver on small boats

Pierre Henri Dumont, who was the Calais MP from 2017-2024, said: “The reality is you can have as many police officers as you want, but people will cross the Channel. If you have eight rather than 100 police officers that won’t change anything at all.”

A French coastguard source told Sky News there are the same staffing levels at the weekend, he says “any suggestion there is less staffing on the weekends is laughable and an easy thing to say”.

Smuggler planning

Smuggler supply chains might be linked to a specific day for a range of reasons, for example, as one former senior Home Office official suggests, the fact “boat engines, or parts, might arrive on a Friday”.

Mr Dumont says smuggling networks rely on people to do small jobs, like transporting boats, who may also have day jobs in the week. He says the reasons behind the weekend uptick “are not necessarily predictable ones”.

A small inflatable dinghy crossing the English Channel from France to England in August 2024. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A small inflatable dinghy crossing the English Channel from France to England in August 2024. Pic: Reuters

Another factor may be that because French police tend not to intervene once a boat is in the water, many small boats set off from inland waterways. The canal-type waterways which come inland before the Channel are often full of fishing boats on weekdays, making it easier to launch from the waterways on weekends.

Another suggestion from a Home Office source is that while many migrants who cross the channel are based in the camps around Calais, many use public transport to arrive for a timed departure and are therefore reliant on transport timetables which may be more limited at different times of the week.

Weather coincidence

Leaked Home Office analysis shows that of the number of weekend days where small boat crossings were more likely because of good weather conditions was disproportionately high last year.

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The figures show that 61 out of 197 days where the weather meant there was a realistic possibility, likely or highly likely there would be a channel crossing were weekend days. However, we only have figures for 2024, and it seems unlikely the weather alone could account for three years of higher crossings on weekend days.

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