Yevgeny Prigozhin’s uprising was over too fast to change the course of war in Ukraine – but it has exposed Moscow’s fragility
A sudden uprising in Russia was over too fast to have any immediate impact on the war in Ukraine, but it exposed a fragility in Moscow that Kyiv will seek to exploit, experts have said.
They noted that the rebellion itself, by the head of a mercenary group, was actually a by-product of President Vladimir Putin’s bungled decision to invade in the first place – the ultimate unintended consequence of an operation that was meant to make him stronger.
Ukraine-Russia war latest: Wagner mutiny ‘may have been orchestrated event’
Had the mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner private army lasted more than one day, it may even have forced Putin to abandon his war in Ukraine to battle an insurrection at home, according to one senior Ukrainian MP.
However, with the coup now over, “there will be no big changes on the battlefield in the very short term”, said Oleksiy Goncharenko.
Yet it still “shows how fragile Russia is and at any moment it could collapse, so yes, I think that this makes us closer to our victory”.
Yevgeny Prigozhin poses for selfies as he leaves Rostov Pic: AP
Prigozhin’s outburst was the climax of a long-running feud with Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, and General Valery Gerasimov, the head of the armed forces.
The Wagner chief accused them of incompetence over the war effort and claimed their soldiers had killed his men in Ukraine even though they are meant to be on the same side.
In a series of audio and video messages posted on social media, he went further, implicitly attacking Putin for the first time, by accusing Moscow of lying about their justification for the entire Ukraine war.
Yuriy Sak, an adviser to the Ukrainian defence minister, said: “We were always saying that Russia as an empire built on lies will sooner or later implode.
“So, something tells me that what happened yesterday is probably just the beginning of a larger self-destruction of this empire of evil, and of course what makes Russia weaker, makes us stronger and brings our victory closer.”
The sight of Wagner mercenaries – many of them convicts who brought carnage to Ukraine – turning on Putin’s own military was a welcome boost for morale among Ukrainian forces, according to the MP.
Vladimir Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhin at a factory outside St Petersburg in September 2010. Pic: AP
And while the infighting may not have affected the tempo of Russian operations on the ground, it pointed to divisions within the ranks – and new opportunities for Ukraine.
“I think now Ukraine has a very good window of opportunity to do something,” Mr Goncharenko said.
“How we will exploit, how successfully, we will see next several weeks,” he said.
Read more:
On streets of Moscow, people seem shaken up by Wagner Group rebellion
How the revolt led by ‘Putin’s Chef’ unfolded
Aborted mutiny busts the myth that Putin is infallible
The former hot dog seller and thug who became Wagner boss at centre of mutiny
Analysts said the turmoil in Russia should prompt Western allies to ramp up supplies of weapons to Ukraine to give President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s forces the best chance of taking advantage of the situation.
Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the Chatham House think tank, said Putin’s domestic woes should also silence any talk in the West of Ukraine needing to reach some kind of accommodation with the Kremlin.
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Putin accuses Prigozhin of treason
“Russia can be defeated and the obvious thing to do now is increase the support to Ukraine and give Ukraine what it needs to bring about that defeat now it has been shown just how weak Russia really is,” he said.
Whatever happens next in Russia, Ukraine must keep on fighting.
“Unfortunately, Ukrainian victory is possible only in the situation where Ukraine will do this job,” said Alina Frolova, a former deputy defence minister in Ukraine.
“But that will facilitate [the] destruction which [has] started in Russia, and I think it will go faster and faster.”
US president-elect Donald Trump has suggested Israel and Hamas could agree a Gaza ceasefire by the end of the week.
Talks between Israeli and Hamas representatives resumed in the Qatari capital Doha yesterday, after US President Joe Biden indicated a deal to stop the fighting was “on the brink” on Monday.
A draft agreement has been sent to both sides. It includes provisions for the release of hostages and a phased Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza.
Qatar says Israel and Hamas are at their “closest point” yet to a ceasefire deal.
Two Hamas officials said the group has accepted the draft agreement, with Israel still considering the deal.
An Israeli official said a deal is close but “we are not there” yet.
More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its ground offensive in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.
Read more:
What’s in the proposed deal?
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on beachfront cafe in Deir al Balah. Pic: Reuters
Biden hails possibility of agreement
President Biden said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians, in his final foreign policy speech as president.
“So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. Palestinian people deserve peace,” he said.
“The deal would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”
Qatari mediators have sent Israel and Hamas a draft proposal for an agreement to halt the fighting.
Analysis:
Deal might be close, but there are many unanswered questions
Pic: Reuters
Trump: ‘We’re very close’
President-elect Donald Trump has also discussed a possible peace deal during a phone interview with the Newsmax channel.
“We’re very close to getting it done and they have to get it done,” he said.
“If they don’t get it done, there’s going to be a lot of trouble out there, a lot of trouble, like they have never seen before.
“And they will get it done. And I understand there’s been a handshake and they’re getting it finished and maybe by the end of the week. But it has to take place, it has to take place.”
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Donald Trump’s inauguration 2.0
Pic: AP
Israeli official: Former Hamas leader held up deal
Speaking on Tuesday as negotiations resumed in Qatar, an anonymous Israeli official said that an agreement was “close, but we are not there”.
They accused Hamas of previously “dictating, not negotiating” but said this has changed in the last few weeks.
“Yahya Sinwar was the main obstacle for a deal,” they added.
Sinwar, believed to be the mastermind of the 7 October attacks, led Hamas following the assassination of his predecessor but was himself killed in October last year.
Under Sinwar, the Israeli official claimed, Hamas was “not in a rush” to bring a hostage deal but this has changed since his death and since the IDF “started to dismantle the Shia axis”.
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Biden: ‘Never, never, never, ever give up’
Iran ‘weaker than it’s been in decades’
Yesterday, President Biden also hailed Washington’s support for Israel during two Iranian attacks in 2024.
“All told, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades,” the president said.
Mr Biden claimed America’s adversaries were weaker than when he took office four years ago and that the US was “winning the worldwide competition”.
“Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are
weaker,” he said.
“We have not gone to war to make these things happen.”
The US president is expected to give a farewell address on Wednesday.
A draft ceasefire deal on the table between Israel and Hamas would see 33 hostages set free and a phased withdrawal of IDF forces from parts of Gaza.
President Joe Biden said an agreement to stop the fighting was “on the brink” and high level negotiations between the two sides resumed in Qatar on Tuesday.
The deal would see a number of things happen in a first stage, with negotiations for the second stage beginning in the third week of the ceasefire.
It would also allow a surge in humanitarian aid into Gaza, which has been devastated by more than a year of war.
Details of what the draft proposal entails have been emerging on Tuesday, reported by Israeli and Palestinian officials.
Relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages hold photos of their loved ones during a protest on 8 January. Pic: AP
Hostages to be returned
In the first stage of the potential ceasefire, 33 hostages would be set free.
These include women (including female soldiers), children, men over the age of 50, wounded and sick.
Israel believes most of these hostages are alive but there has not been any official confirmation from Hamas.
In return for the release of the hostages, Israel would free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
People serving long sentences for deadly attacks would be included in this but Hamas fighters who took part in the 7 October attack would not be released.
An arrangement to prevent Palestinian “terrorists” from going back to the West Bank would be included in the deal, an anonymous Israeli official said.
Read more:
A timeline of events since the 7 October attacks
The hostages who still haven’t returned home
Smoke billows as buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
The agreement also includes a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, with IDF troops remaining in the border perimeter to defend Israeli border towns and villages.
Security arrangements would be implemented at the Philadelphi corridor – a narrow strip of land that runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza – with Israel withdrawing from parts of it after the first few days of the deal.
The Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza would start to work gradually to allow the crossing of people who are sick and other humanitarian cases out of Gaza for treatment.
Unarmed North Gaza residents would be allowed to return to their homes, with a mechanism introduced to ensure no weapons are moved there.
“We will not leave the Gaza Strip until all our hostages are back home,” the Israeli official said.
What will happen to Gaza in the future?
There is less detail about the future of Gaza – from how it will be governed, to any guarantees that this agreement will bring a permanent end to the war.
“The only thing that can answer for now is that we are ready for a ceasefire,” the Israeli official said.
“This is a long ceasefire and the deal that is being discussed right now is for a long one. There is a big price for releasing the hostages and we are ready to pay this price.”
The international community has said Gaza must be run by Palestinians, but there has not been a consensus about how this should be done – and the draft ceasefire agreement does not seem to address this either.
In the past, Israel has said it will not end the war leaving Hamas in power. It also previously rejected the possibility of the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited governing powers in the West Bank, from taking over the administration of Gaza.
Since the beginning of its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has also said it would retain security control over the territory after the fighting ends.
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