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It will cost £169,000 per person to send illegal migrants to countries such as Rwanda, according to new analysis published by the government.

An economic assessment of the Illegal Migration Bill also estimated that each person sent abroad to the east African nation, or a similar country, will save the taxpayer between £106,000 and £165,000 per person.

If the government wants to break even on the project, it would need to deter about 37% of people from crossing the Channel, the analysis estimated.

“This cost will only be incurred for people who arrive in the UK illegally. If an individual is deterred from entering the UK illegally, then no cost would be incurred,” the assessment notes.

An exact estimate for how much it would cost to send someone to Rwanda was not available, as the details are “commercially sensitive”.

However, the UK only has a deal in place to send people to Rwanda.

And things could get more expensive if the UK were to agree deportation deals with additional nations, as the government has indicated it wants to.

Setting up fees were not included in the £169,000 calculation – and it was noted the UK has paid Rwanda £140m so far and no one has made the journey there.

A breakdown of the costs said that a third country like Rwanda would get £105,000, the Home Office £18,000, costs for flying and escorting would be £22,000, costs for detention would be £7,000 and costs to the Ministry of Justice would be £1,000.

An extra 9% was added to account for estimates being optimistic, bringing the figure to £169,000.

And as unaccompanied children are excluded from being deported, the analysis warns that more young people – or those claiming to be so – could arrive under the scheme.

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Suella Braverman is in Rwanda
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Suella Braverman in Rwanda earlier in 2023

Home Secretary Suella Braverman said the assessment proves that “doing nothing is not an option”.

She said: “We cannot allow a system to continue which incentivises people to risk their lives and pay people smugglers to come to this country illegally, while placing an unacceptable strain on the UK taxpayer.

“I urge MPs and peers to back the bill to stop the boats, so we can crack down on people-smuggling gangs while bringing our asylum system back into balance.”

The Illegal Migration Bill seeks to prevent people who enter the UK illegally from making asylum claims, and instead aims to detain them before they get deported.

It is currently being debated in the Lords before it heads back to the Commons.

Yvette Cooper, Labour’s shadow home secretary, branded the assessment “a complete joke”.

“By its own admission, this failing Conservative government is totally clueless on how much this bill will cost or what the impact of any of its policies will be. They are taking the country for fools,” she said.

“The few figures the Home Office has produced show how chaotic and unworkable their plans are. It suggests that if Rishi Sunak were actually able to deliver on his promise to remove every asylum seeker who arrives in the UK it would cost billions of pounds more even than the Tories’ broken asylum system today.”

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Reacting to the publication, the SNP noted that deporting all 11,000 people who have arrived in the UK on small boats this year would cost £1.8bn, according to the analysis.

The party’s home affairs spokesperson, Alison Thewliss, said: “”The astronomical cost of this policy adds an extra layer of disgust in those already opposed to these plans.

“At a time where so many are forced to flee persecution and unimaginable terrors it speaks to the inhumane priorities of the Tories that they would seek to enforce this.”

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Inflation: Cost of living challenges require bold decisions

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Inflation: Cost of living challenges require bold decisions

You know bad economic news is looming when a Chancellor of the Exchequer tries to get their retaliation in first.

Treasury guidance on Tuesday afternoon that Rachel Reeves has prioritised easing the cost of living had to be seen in the light of inflation figures, published this morning, and widely expected to rise above 4% for the first time since the aftermath of the energy crisis.

In that context the fact consumer price inflation in September remained level at 3.8% counts as qualified good news for the Treasury, if not consumers.

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The figure remains almost double the Bank of England target of 2%, the rate when Labour took office, but economists at the Bank and beyond do expect this month to mark the peak of this inflationary cycle.

That’s largely because the impact of higher energy prices last year will drop out of calculations next month.

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Inflation sticks at 3.8%

The small surprise to the upside has also improved the chances of an interest rate cut before the end of the year, with markets almost fully pricing expectations of a reduction to 3.75% by December, though rate-setters may hold off at their next meeting early next month.

September’s figure also sets the uplift in benefits from next April so this figure may improve the internal Treasury forecast, but at more than double the rate a year ago it will still add billions to the bill due in the new year.

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Minister ‘not happy with inflation’

For consumers there was good news and bad, and no comfort at all from the knowledge that they face the highest price increases in Europe.

Fuel prices rose but there was welcome relief from the rate of food inflation, which fell to 4.5% from 5.1% in August, still well above the headline rate and an unavoidable cost increase for every household.

Read more from Sky News:
Beef market in turmoil and affecting farmers and consumers
Rachel Reeves looking at cutting energy bills in budget

The chancellor will convene a meeting of cabinet ministers on Thursday to discuss ways to ease the cost of living and has signalled that cutting energy bills is a priority.

The easiest lever for her to pull is to cut the VAT rate on gas and electricity from 5% to zero, which would reduce average bills by around £80 but cost £2.5bn.

More fundamental reform of energy prices, which remain the second-highest in Europe for domestic bill payers and the highest for industrial users, may be required to bring down inflation fast and stimulate growth.

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Schools must be ‘brave enough’ to talk about knives – as Harvey Willgoose’s killer is sentenced

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Schools must be 'brave enough' to talk about knives - as Harvey Willgoose's killer is sentenced

Schools need to be “brave enough” to talk about knives, Sky News has been told, as the killer of Sheffield teenager Harvey Willgoose is sentenced today.

The 15-year-old was stabbed outside the school canteen at All Saints Catholic high school by a fellow pupil in February this year.

His killer, who was also 15 and cannot be identified for legal reasons, had brought a 13cm hunting knife into school.

Harvey Willgoose. Pic: Sophie Willgoose
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Harvey Willgoose. Pic: Sophie Willgoose

Following Harvey’s murder, his parents Caroline and Mark Willgoose told Sky News they wanted to see knife arches in “all secondary schools and colleges”.

“It’s 100% a conversation, I think, that we need to be empowered and brave enough to have,” says Katie Crook, associate vice principal of Penistone Grammar School.

The school, which teaches 2,000 pupils, is just a few miles away from where Harvey was killed.

After being contacted by the Willgoose family, it has decided to install a knife arch.

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The arch – essentially a walk-through metal detector – has been described as a “reassuring tool” and “real success” by school leaders.

“We’re really lucky here that we don’t have a knife crime problem – but we are on the forefront with safeguarding initiatives,” says Mrs Crook.

“I didn’t really think we needed one at first,” says Izzy, 14. “But then I guess at Harvey’s school they wouldn’t think that either and then it did actually happen.”

Joe, 15, says he did find the knife arch “intimidating” at first.

“But after using it a couple of times,” he says, “it’s just like walking through a doorway”.

“And it’s that extra layer of, like, you feel secure in school.”

After Harvey’s death, then home secretary Yvette Cooper said that she would support schools in the use of knife arches.

But there remains no official government policy or national guidance on their use.

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Some headteachers who spoke with Sky News feel knife arches aren’t the answer – saying the issue required a societal approach.

Others said knife arches themselves were a significant expense to schools.

But Mrs Crook says they are “well worth the funding” if they prevent “a student making a catastrophic decision”.

“I’m a parent and, of course, my focus every day is keeping our students safe, just as I want my son to be kept safe in his setting and his school.”

Mrs Crook says she thinks schools would “welcome” a discussion at “national level” about the use of knife arches and other knife-related deterrents in schools.

“It’s sad, though that this is what it’s come to, that we’re having lockdown drills in the UK, in our school settings.

“But I suppose some might argue that has been needed for a long time.”

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Shrinking herds and rising costs: The beef market is in turmoil – and inflation is spiralling

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Shrinking herds and rising costs: The beef market is in turmoil - and inflation is spiralling

If you eat beef, and ever stop to wonder where and how it’s produced, Jonathan Chapman’s farm in the Chiltern Hills west of London is what you might imagine. 

A small native herd, eating only the pasture beneath their hooves in a meadow fringed by beech trees, their leaves turning to match the copper coats of the Ruby Red Devons, selected for slaughter only after fattening naturally during a contented if short existence.

But this bucolic scene belies the turmoil in the beef market, where herds are shrinking, costs are rising, and even the promise of the highest prices in years, driven by the steepest price increase of any foodstuff, is not enough to tempt many farmers to invest.

For centuries, a symbolic staple of the British lunch table, beef now tells us a story about spiralling inflation and structural decline in agriculture.

Mr Chapman has been raising beef for just over a decade. A former champion eventing rider with a livery yard near Chalfont St Giles, the main challenge when he shifted his attention from horses to cows was that prices were too low.

“Ten years ago, the deadweight carcass price for beef was £3.60 a kilo. We might clear £60 a head of cattle,” he says. “The only way we could make the sums add up was to process and sell the meat ourselves.”

Processing a carcass doubles the revenue, from around £2,000 at today’s prices to £4,000. That insight saw his farm sprout a butchery and farm shop under the Native Beef brand. Today, they process two animals a week and sell or store every cut on site, from fillet to dripping.

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Today, farmgate prices are nearly double what they were in 2015 at £6.50 a kilo, down slightly from the April peak of almost £7, but still up around 25% in a year.

For consumers that has made paying more than £5 for a pack of mince the norm. For farmers, rising prices reflect rising costs, long-term trends, and structural changes to the subsidy regime since Brexit.

“Supply and demand is the short answer,” says Mr Chapman.

“Cow numbers have been falling roughly 3% a year for the last decade, probably in this country. Since Brexit, there is virtually no direct support for food in this country. Well over 50% of the beef supply would have come from the dairy herd, but that’s been reducing because farmers just couldn’t make money.”

Political, environmental and economic forces

Beef farmers also face the same costs of trading as every other business. The rise in employers’ national insurance and the minimum wage have increased labour costs, and energy prices remain above the long-term average.

Then there is the weather, the inescapable variable in agriculture that this year delivered a historically dry summer, leaving pastures dormant, reducing hay and silage yields and forcing up feed costs.

Native Beef is not immune to these forces. Mr Chapman has reduced his suckler herd from 110 to 90, culling older cows to reduce costs this winter. If repeated nationally, the full impact of that reduction will only be fully clear in three years’ time, when fewer calves will reach maturity for sale, potentially keeping prices high.

That lag demonstrates one of the challenges in bringing prices down.

Basic economics says high prices ought to provide an opportunity and prompt increased supply, but there is no quick fix. Calves take nine months to gestate and another 20 to 24 months to reach maturity, and without certainty about price, there is greater risk.

There is another long-term issue weighing on farmers of all kinds: inheritance tax. The ending of the exemption for agriculture, announced in the last budget and due to be imposed from next April, has undermined confidence.

Neil Shand of the National Beef Association cites farmers who are spending what available capital they have on expensive life insurance to protect their estates, rather than expanding their herds.

“The farmgate price is such that we should be in an environment that we should be in a great place to expand, there is a market there that wants the product,” he says. “But the inheritance tax challenge has made everyone terrified to invest in something that will be more heavily taxed in the future.”

While some of the issues are domestic, the UK is not alone.

Beef prices are rising in the US and Europe too, but that is small consolation to the consumer, and none at all to the cow.

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