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Lawmakers are looking ahead to the 2024 election as a pivotal opportunity to shape the future of the Supreme Court because of the possibility that conservative Justices Clarence Thomas, 75, and Samuel Alito, 73, could retire.  

Democrats are worried that if Biden loses and the GOP wins the Senate majority, it could allow a GOP president to replace both men with younger conservatives who could rule far into the future.  

“It’s critical. President Biden, who I feel confident will be reelected, needs to be able to put more judges on the bench, federal judges, including Supreme Court. It is absolutely critical that the Senate remain in Democratic hands,” said Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), who will retire at the end of next year.   

Stabenow warned that if Republicans flip the White House and Senate and replace Thomas and Alito with younger conservatives, “it would be devastating for anyone who cares about privacy and their own personal freedom,” alluding to last year’s 6-3 Supreme Court opinion that overturned the constitutional right to an abortion and raised questions about other rights protected by the 14th Amendment.   

Republicans also see high stakes in next year’s elections because of the court.  

“Probably the next president will have a chance to appoint another member of the court,” said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. “I expect that you’d see, over the course between now and the end of the next [presidential] term, probably another retirement or two.”  

Hawley said replacing older conservatives such as Thomas and Alito with younger ones could create an “enduring majority,” but he cautioned that it’s tough to predict how a justice’s opinions might evolve over years on the Supreme Court.   

“Republicans have had the majority of Supreme Court appointments for decades now and have not succeeded in getting a stable conservative majority on that court until very recently,” he said. “Does the next election matter for the court? I think it really does. I don’t know how much of a [conservative] majority it is. I don’t know how stable it is.”  

Republican appointees now hold a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, with Chief Justice John Roberts, 68, emerging as the most likely swing vote since the retirement of Justice Anthony Kennedy in 2018.  

Among the Democratic appointees, Obama-nominated Justice Sonia Sotomayor, 69, is the oldest. Justice Elena Kagan, another Obama appointee, is 63 and Ketanji Brown Jackson, whom President Biden put on the court, is 52.   

The remaining three justices, Neil Gorsuch, 55, Brett Kavanaugh, 58, and Amy Coney Barrett, 51, were appointed by former President Trump.

The Supreme Court’s importance to the balance of political power in the United States was underscored once again Tuesday, when a 6-3 majority ruled to reject a legal theory that would have given state legislatures nearly unlimited power to set rules for federal elections, without judicial restraint.  

It was another decision that showed justices don’t always march in line with the party of the president who appointed them. Roberts wrote the majority opinion, which was joined by the court’s three liberals as well as Coney Barrett and Kavanaugh. Thomas, Alito and Gorsuch dissented.   

The conservative majority now on the court is likely to be there for some time, regardless of what happens with Alito and Thomas.  

An analysis of the court’s projected composition by academics at three prestigious schools suggested the next time the majority of justices will be appointed by a Democrat is likely to be around 2065.   

It found that the Democrats’ failure to confirm Obama-nominee Merrick Garland in 2016, combined with the death in 2016 of liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who was quickly replaced by Trump, “reduced its likely control of the court by about 19 years out of the next 100 and increased the number of years until the party takes control again by 36 years.”  

The study caught the attention of judicial reform advocates on both sides of the ideological spectrum who say it further highlights the stakes of next year’s presidential and Senate races.  

“I do think that the 2024 election is important. I do think Alito and Thomas will be getting up there in age, and there’s quite a real possibility that replacements for them could be in order in the next four-year presidential window,” said Brian Fallon, co-founder and executive director of Demand Justice, which seeks to restore “ideological balance and legitimacy” to the courts.  

Fallon noted that prominent Republicans dropped hints about wanting to see Thomas retire while Trump was president.  

“It’s hugely important to win the upcoming election, and I think the court will be more salient of an issue than ever,” he said. “It’s important to win the next election because if there is going be an opportunity to replace a Thomas or Alito, you don’t want to miss it by not winning a Senate race here or there and preventing us from filling a seat. But we shouldn’t delude ourselves into thinking that the court’s balance is going to be shifted anytime soon just by winning a few elections.”  

Carrie Campbell Severino, the president of JCN, a conservative advocacy group that favors “the Founders’ vision of a nation of limited government” observed that “if the next president has the opportunity to appoint a Supreme Court justice, that person could easily serve another 30 years.”  

She also questioned whether a conservate majority on the Supreme Court will really last as long as some studies have predicted. “It strikes me as pretty optimistic,” she said.  

Senate Democrats have an uphill battle to keep their majority after the 2024 election; they have to defend three highly vulnerable seats in Ohio, Montana and West Virginia, while Republicans don’t have any seats in real danger of flipping.   

Democrats also have to worry about the future of independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (Ariz.) seat, which now counts in the Democrats’ column for the purpose of determining the majority. She hasn’t said whether she will run for reelection.   

The battle for the White House also is seen as a jump ball.    Watch live: Blinken discusses Biden administration foreign policy at Council on Foreign Relations Economic optimism best since early 2022, Gallup finds

A Morning Consult poll published Tuesday showed Trump leading Biden in a hypothetical matchup for the first time, 44 percent to 41 percent.  

The same poll showed Trump trouncing his nearest Republican rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 57 percent to 19 percent, among 3,650 potential Republican primary voters nationwide.  

A Morning Consult poll in April showed Biden leading Trump by 1 percentage point. 

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NATO allies agree ‘ironclad commitment’ to collective defence – but no condemnation of Russia’s war in Ukraine

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NATO allies agree 'ironclad commitment' to collective defence - but no condemnation of Russia's war in Ukraine

Donald Trump and his NATO allies confirmed their “ironclad commitment” to collective defence in a communique released at the end of a brief summit in The Hague.

But there was no condemnation of Russia’s war in Ukraine – something that had been in previous statements by allied leaders when Joe Biden was in the White House. His successor has a closer relationship with Vladimir Putin than many of his allies.

The document did describe Russia as a “long-term threat”.

But there was also no word about NATO membership for Ukraine – something that had previously been described an “irreversible path”.

The allies also agreed to spend more on their collective defence.

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The endorsement of Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty came after the US commander-in-chief – the most powerful leader in the room – suggested on his way to the gathering that his definition of what it means may differ from other allies.

The US president’s words risked undermining the credibility of a commitment that has helped ensure the security of NATO for more than 75 years, though the joint statement, approved by the leaders of all 32 member states spelt out clearly what Article 5 constitutes.

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NATO leaders pose for family photo

“We reaffirm our ironclad commitment to collective defence as enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty – that an attack on one is an attack on all,” it said.

“We remain united and steadfast in our resolve to protect our one billion citizens, defend the Alliance, and safeguard our freedom and democracy.”

Sir Keir Starmer and the leaders of all European member states, as well as Canada, are all too aware of Mr Trump’s scepticism about NATO.

He has accused his allies of taking advantage of the US’s far more powerful armed forces to defend Europe and wants the rest of the alliance to take on more of the burden.

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Urgently needing to keep him onside, Mark Rutte, the head of NATO, has been rallying member states to agree to a new pledge to spend 5% of GDP on defence and related areas – a level first touted by Mr Trump.

The statement commits allies to hit this goal by 2035, though Spain has already come out to warn it will agree to the new target but without having a plan to reach it.

The communique reads: “United in the face of profound security threats and challenges, in particular the long term threat posed by Russia to Euro-Atlantic security and the persistent threat of terrorism, allies commit to invest 5% of GDP annually on core defence requirements as well as defence-and security-related spending by 2035.”

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Is the UK preparing for war?

It is a significant rise, that is broken down into 3.5% of GDP on core defence – up from a previous goal of 2% – and a further 1.5% to be invested in national resilience, such as roads, railways, energy and cyber security.

The final communique was much shorter than usual, comprising just five paragraphs.

In the only mention of Russia’s war in Ukraine, it said: “Allies reaffirm their enduring sovereign commitments to provide support to Ukraine, whose security contributes to ours, and, to this end, will include direct contributions towards Ukraine’s defence and its defence industry when calculating allies’ defence spending.”

Mr Trump has vowed to end Russia’s war in Ukraine but has so far failed to stop the fighting.

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Hainault sword attacker Marcus Monzo found guilty of murdering boy, 14, and three attempted murders

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Hainault sword attacker Marcus Monzo found guilty of murdering boy, 14, and three attempted murders

A man has been found guilty of murdering a 14-year-old boy with a samurai sword as he walked to school in east London.

Marcus Arduini Monzo, 37, nearly decapitated Daniel Anjorin and attacked five others during a 20-minute rampage in Hainault on 30 April last year.

Prosecutors said he skinned and deboned his pet cat Wizard before trying “to kill as many people as he could” while under the influence of cannabis.

Monzo, a Spanish-Brazilian national from Newham in east London, admitted two charges of possessing an offensive weapon relating to two swords, which he said he bought for display purposes.

He claimed he had no memory of carrying out the attacks denied Daniel’s murder along with four charges of attempted murder, wounding with intent, aggravated burglary and possession of a bladed article.

He was cleared of one count of attempted murder – instead found guilty of wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm – and convicted of all other charges following a trial at the Old Bailey.

Daniel Anjorin was attacked in Hainault, northeast London, and suffered fatal wounds on 30 April last year. Pic: Metropolitan Police.
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Daniel Anjorin, 14, died in April last year. Pic: Metropolitan Police

The court heard Monzo was a “talented martial artist” and the jury was shown footage of him unboxing a samurai sword on 4 April last year.

In the four-minute video clip, he calls the weapon “freaking sexy” as he lunges towards the camera and makes different moves.

Marcus Monzo
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Marcus Monzo with a samurai sword in footage shown during the trial

The court was also shown CCTV footage from the morning of 30 April, with audible screams in one clip as Monzo drove his grey Ford Transit van at speed into pedestrian Donato Iwule.

Mr Iwule told jurors: “I thought I was dying” and “I saw blood coming out of my neck”, after he was struck with a sword before running away.

Witnesses described how Monzo was running around “like a maniac” and “looked a bit mad, like there was nothing there”.

Daniel, who had left home at around 7am wearing headphones and school sports clothes, suffered “a near-decapitation” when Monzo attacked him with the weapon from behind, prosecutor Tom Little KC told the jury.

 Handout footage from a doorbell camera of police officers tasering a sword-wielding man in Hainault, north east London, after a 14-year-old boy died after being stabbed following an attack on members of the public and two police officers. Pic: PA
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Monzo was tasered by police. Pic: PA

PC Yasmin Mechem-Whitfield chased the armed attacker through alleyways before Monzo struck her three times with the 60cm blade using “extreme force”, the court heard.

He then entered a nearby house through the back door and walked upstairs before attacking sleeping couple Sindy Arias and Henry De Los Rios Polania, who he asked: “Do you believe in God?”

Mr Little said their lives were only spared because their four-year-old daughter, who was sleeping nearby, woke up and started to cry.

Monzo, who had been cornered by police, also struck Inspector Moloy Campbell once with the sword before he was finally disarmed and arrested after trying to climb onto a garage to escape.

Doorbell footage shows the moment officers shout: “Don’t move, don’t f****** move”, after he was brought to the ground by three separate taser discharges.

Monzo told police he had “many personalities”, including a “professional assassin”, and compared the events to The Hunger Games film franchise.

He wept while giving evidence as he said he did not intend to harm anybody and told jurors he had no memory of what happened.

He told how he had previously used psychedelic drugs and smoked cannabis “three or four times a week” before the attack, but denied doing so on the day.

Prosecutors said he likely suffered from a psychotic disorder with “schizophrenic-like symptoms”, including “delusional beliefs” that both he and his family were in “mortal danger”.

But Mr Little said his psychotic state was self-induced and did not meet the threshold for diminished responsibility.

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Thousands of Eurostar passengers facing cancellations and severe delays after cable theft

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Thousands of Eurostar passengers facing cancellations and severe delays after cable theft

Thousands of Eurostar passengers have been suffering severe delays and last-minute cancellations due to cable theft – a day after two track fatalities caused disruption.

The latest delays come after 600 metres of copper cables were stolen overnight in the city of Lille in northern France, according to reports in the country.

Eurostar said this was forcing it to run services on alternative routes, causing extended journey times.

The company said in a statement that “full repairs are now completed” and trains resumed as normal as of 1pm UK time.

It added that “some delays can still be expected until the end of the day”.

The statement continued: “Customers have been contacted directly with updates and available options, and Eurostar is advising those due to travel today to postpone their journey with free exchanges and refunds available.

“We’re very sorry for the continued disruption and the impact this is having on our customers. Our teams are working hard to support customers in the stations.”

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Eurostar said services between Brussels/Paris and London had been experiencing disruption since the beginning of the day.

Its services were already disrupted because many trains and staff members were out of position after two fatalities on rail lines in France on Tuesday.

At least five services on its London-Paris route were cancelled on Wednesday, and seven others were delayed by around an hour.

Pic: PA
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Passengers at St Pancras International station in London. Pic: PA

The operator said it was handing out water to passengers on delayed trains, and it has teams at stations to provide assistance.

Affected passengers are able to change their travel plans free of charge or request a full refund.

Images show large crowds of stranded passengers at St Pancras International station in London today.

In a post on X, Eurostar said the cable theft meant trains were likely to be “subject to severe delays and last-minute cancellations”, adding: “We advise you to cancel or postpone your trip.”

Nigel Hardman, 57, took an Avanti West Coast train from Blackpool to London Euston at 5.30am, only for him and his family to find out en route that their Eurostar trip to Paris had been cancelled.

The delays have meant they have decided to board a train to Brussels instead of Paris, meaning they have lost out on about £700 on hotel costs and connecting trains.

Delayed passengers at St Pancras. Pic: PA
Image:
Delayed passengers at St Pancras. Pic: PA

Mr Hardman, a plumber from Blackpool, said: “There’s no availability on trains to Paris – they’re all booked up. We’re going to go to Brussels and stay there, then shoot down to Strasbourg, where we were supposed to be. I only found out on an email at about 3.30am this morning, why couldn’t they have told us last night?

“And when we got here, we were in the queue for an hour before we found out the other trains to Paris were all booked up. Everyone was useless until one really organised guy was telling it to us straight. It’s going to cost us about £700 extra which is really frustrating. And it’s just a nightmare start to our trip.”

Eurostar passenger Elizabeth Romijn, 75, a yoga teacher from the Netherlands said she is used to issues with the train service, but described Wednesday’s disruption as “very chaotic”.

She was planning to make her way home, catching the train to Brussels today after visiting friends in Guildford, Sussex and has decided to wait in the station to see if she can board a train.

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Ms Romijn said: “My plan is to just wait. Maybe I should go and be more proactive and go to ask one of the staff but nobody seems to know anything. And it’s quite horrible long queues.

“On the email they said, don’t go, go cancel your travel or take a voucher or something – but I thought I’m going to travel anyway. I’m just going to wait and if it’s cancelled, then I go back to Guildford where I’ve been visiting my friends.”

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Passengers at St Pancras International station .
Pic: PA
Image:
Passengers at St Pancras International station .
Pic: PA

Eurostar had said in a statement following the deaths on Tuesday: “We are deeply sorry to confirm that there were two separate fatalities on the LGV Nord high-speed line between Lille and Paris yesterday.

“Our thoughts are with the families and friends of those who lost their lives.

“The line was closed for much of the afternoon and evening, resulting in significant disruption to Eurostar services, including cancellations on routes to and from Paris.

“Trains on the London-Brussels-Amsterdam route continued to run with delays.

“This morning, disruption continues due to the knock-on impact of displaced trains and crew.

“Further to this, services have been further affected by an incident of cable theft on the same line near Lille.”

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