What dramatic videos of Wagner march on Moscow reveal about rebellion – and what’s now expected to happen
More than 130 videos of the Wagner march on Moscow have been verified and reviewed by Sky News and the Centre for Information Resilience, making Saturday’s incident one of the most publicly documented of the Ukraine conflict.
“Not since the opening days of Russia’s full-scale invasion have our investigators at the Centre for Information Resilience (CIR) seen so much imagery in such a short period,” said Belen Carrasco-Rodriguez, deputy lead of the Eyes on Russia project.
“This sort of open rebellion is impossible to hide from the world’s digital gaze.”
Wagner troops reportedly advanced north to 120 miles (200km) from Moscow when their convoy turned back
The most-recorded phase of the Wagner Group’s march to Moscow was the arrival of troops in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, according to the material we reviewed.
Forty-two of the 133 videos seen by CIR and Sky News were taken in the city, which is the Russian military’s logistical hub for its war in Ukraine.
Because of this, the region’s residents are no strangers to military activity. But when armed Wagner soldiers, tanks and armoured vehicles took up positions in the centre of the city early on Saturday morning, onlookers rushed to capture the scene.
This clip was filmed near the Southern Military District headquarters. In it, a group of around 20 armed men in military fatigues can be seen moving in formation behind an armoured vehicle. Nearby, several tanks and other military vehicles are lined up along an avenue that has shops and residential buildings.
It is one of many similar videos circulating on social media showing how Wagner troops asserted their presence in the city as morning broke. Around the same time, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin shared footage of him inside the Russian military HQ and later stated he was in control of all military sites in the region.
Yevgeny Prigozhin shared a clip of himself inside the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don early on Saturday morning. Pic: Telegram
Voronezh is another key location in Saturday’s events, with 22 of the 133 videos we reviewed showing incidents in the area.
Located more than 350 miles north of Rostov-on-Don, it lies along the M4 motorway – the main road used by Wagner as they advanced towards Moscow.
Footage from Voronezh is distinctive in that it depicts the moments Prigozhin’s campaign teetered into violent conflict, with Russian military helicopters and Wagner Group forces on the ground firing on one another. Most of the videos we found from the area capture these tense scenes.
The clip below was filmed at a car dealership on the outskirts of Voronezh city, where the M4 passes. In it, a helicopter can be seen flying low overhead. Men in green fatigues – thought to be Wagner fighters – fire what looks like an anti-aircraft missile from the nearby road in the direction of the chopper.
We know the incident took place in Voronezh, because the blue, white and grey structures match imagery provided on Google.
Slide the marker below to see how a screengrab from the video above matches separate imagery from the same location.
Another clip filmed just five minutes south on the same road shows a helicopter – possibly the same one – narrowly missing being hit by a rocket that almost hits the person recording.
The Wagner Group shot down six Russian military helicopters during the mutiny, according to Ukrainian sources.
In Moscow, much of the footage captured Russian military movements inside the city as it braced for what could be an armed confrontation on Putin’s doorstep. Of the material we viewed, many showed events on Friday evening after news of Prigozhin’s plan became public.
This clip shows at least seven large military trucks in Moscow’s Khamovniki district.
Other clips among the 17 from Moscow reviewed by CIR and Sky News show the defensive actions taken by Russian security forces the following day, including roadblocks like the one below in the city’s Yasenevo district.
The 133 videos we looked at are just some of the ones circulating depicting how Saturday’s unprecedented events folded.
Emily Ferris, research fellow at defence thinktank RUSI, said the high number of videos from the weekend was notable given how tightly controlled information about the war is within Russia.
She told Sky News: “Most of the information we’re relying on has been from the Ukrainian side, which means the overall picture we have about the war is quite skewed.
“We’ve got very little understanding of, say, Russian military morale, Russian public opinion. We are in the dark about a lot of those questions.”
Read more:
On streets of Moscow, people seem shaken up by Wagner rebellion
Aborted mutiny busts myth about Putin
As for the videos themselves, Ms Ferris said that while it was useful to see what happened as Wagner troops moved through Russia, there was still a lot of information missing.
She added: “It is really useful to have video footage of them storming a military building – what is more useful is the interpretation of what happened next.
“I think unfortunately that is testament to the power of the Russian suppressive machine.
“I think what we can expect in the next few weeks – while we can’t say anything for certain – is that there’s going to be a huge amount of restrictions on footage like this, on media, a massive crackdown on anybody that looked like they were in any way sympathetic towards Wagner’s cause.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
US president-elect Donald Trump has suggested Israel and Hamas could agree a Gaza ceasefire by the end of the week.
Talks between Israeli and Hamas representatives resumed in the Qatari capital Doha yesterday, after US President Joe Biden indicated a deal to stop the fighting was “on the brink” on Monday.
A draft agreement has been sent to both sides. It includes provisions for the release of hostages and a phased Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza.
Qatar says Israel and Hamas are at their “closest point” yet to a ceasefire deal.
Two Hamas officials said the group has accepted the draft agreement, with Israel still considering the deal.
An Israeli official said a deal is close but “we are not there” yet.
More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its ground offensive in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.
Read more:
What’s in the proposed deal?
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on beachfront cafe in Deir al Balah. Pic: Reuters
Biden hails possibility of agreement
President Biden said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians, in his final foreign policy speech as president.
“So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. Palestinian people deserve peace,” he said.
“The deal would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”
Qatari mediators have sent Israel and Hamas a draft proposal for an agreement to halt the fighting.
Analysis:
Deal might be close, but there are many unanswered questions
Pic: Reuters
Trump: ‘We’re very close’
President-elect Donald Trump has also discussed a possible peace deal during a phone interview with the Newsmax channel.
“We’re very close to getting it done and they have to get it done,” he said.
“If they don’t get it done, there’s going to be a lot of trouble out there, a lot of trouble, like they have never seen before.
“And they will get it done. And I understand there’s been a handshake and they’re getting it finished and maybe by the end of the week. But it has to take place, it has to take place.”
Read more:
Pope Francis honoured by Joe Biden
Donald Trump’s inauguration 2.0
Pic: AP
Israeli official: Former Hamas leader held up deal
Speaking on Tuesday as negotiations resumed in Qatar, an anonymous Israeli official said that an agreement was “close, but we are not there”.
They accused Hamas of previously “dictating, not negotiating” but said this has changed in the last few weeks.
“Yahya Sinwar was the main obstacle for a deal,” they added.
Sinwar, believed to be the mastermind of the 7 October attacks, led Hamas following the assassination of his predecessor but was himself killed in October last year.
Under Sinwar, the Israeli official claimed, Hamas was “not in a rush” to bring a hostage deal but this has changed since his death and since the IDF “started to dismantle the Shia axis”.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Biden: ‘Never, never, never, ever give up’
Iran ‘weaker than it’s been in decades’
Yesterday, President Biden also hailed Washington’s support for Israel during two Iranian attacks in 2024.
“All told, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades,” the president said.
Mr Biden claimed America’s adversaries were weaker than when he took office four years ago and that the US was “winning the worldwide competition”.
“Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are
weaker,” he said.
“We have not gone to war to make these things happen.”
The US president is expected to give a farewell address on Wednesday.
A draft ceasefire deal on the table between Israel and Hamas would see 33 hostages set free and a phased withdrawal of IDF forces from parts of Gaza.
President Joe Biden said an agreement to stop the fighting was “on the brink” and high level negotiations between the two sides resumed in Qatar on Tuesday.
The deal would see a number of things happen in a first stage, with negotiations for the second stage beginning in the third week of the ceasefire.
It would also allow a surge in humanitarian aid into Gaza, which has been devastated by more than a year of war.
Details of what the draft proposal entails have been emerging on Tuesday, reported by Israeli and Palestinian officials.
Relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages hold photos of their loved ones during a protest on 8 January. Pic: AP
Hostages to be returned
In the first stage of the potential ceasefire, 33 hostages would be set free.
These include women (including female soldiers), children, men over the age of 50, wounded and sick.
Israel believes most of these hostages are alive but there has not been any official confirmation from Hamas.
In return for the release of the hostages, Israel would free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
People serving long sentences for deadly attacks would be included in this but Hamas fighters who took part in the 7 October attack would not be released.
An arrangement to prevent Palestinian “terrorists” from going back to the West Bank would be included in the deal, an anonymous Israeli official said.
Read more:
A timeline of events since the 7 October attacks
The hostages who still haven’t returned home
Smoke billows as buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
The agreement also includes a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, with IDF troops remaining in the border perimeter to defend Israeli border towns and villages.
Security arrangements would be implemented at the Philadelphi corridor – a narrow strip of land that runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza – with Israel withdrawing from parts of it after the first few days of the deal.
The Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza would start to work gradually to allow the crossing of people who are sick and other humanitarian cases out of Gaza for treatment.
Unarmed North Gaza residents would be allowed to return to their homes, with a mechanism introduced to ensure no weapons are moved there.
“We will not leave the Gaza Strip until all our hostages are back home,” the Israeli official said.
What will happen to Gaza in the future?
There is less detail about the future of Gaza – from how it will be governed, to any guarantees that this agreement will bring a permanent end to the war.
“The only thing that can answer for now is that we are ready for a ceasefire,” the Israeli official said.
“This is a long ceasefire and the deal that is being discussed right now is for a long one. There is a big price for releasing the hostages and we are ready to pay this price.”
The international community has said Gaza must be run by Palestinians, but there has not been a consensus about how this should be done – and the draft ceasefire agreement does not seem to address this either.
In the past, Israel has said it will not end the war leaving Hamas in power. It also previously rejected the possibility of the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited governing powers in the West Bank, from taking over the administration of Gaza.
Since the beginning of its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has also said it would retain security control over the territory after the fighting ends.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports9 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway