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GM CEO Mary Barra was recently asked about profitability targets for the company’s electric vehicle line and said that it’s on track for EV profitability in 2025.

But, frankly, the whole conversation about EV profitability and cost parity doesn’t make a lot of sense, and here’s why.

Barra is at the Aspen Ideas Festival this week, and conversations have predictably included lots of talk about electric vehicles. She sat down with Andrew Ross Sorkin from CNBC for an interview about the company’s EV transition, and the question of EV profitability came up, as it often does.

Barra gave the kind of answer we’ve heard before – EV profitability isn’t here but is coming soon, and affordable vehicles are going to be the hardest ones to make profitably.

Here’s the full exchange:

Sorkin: You’ve also talked about the challenges of producing cheaper vehicles, so $30,000 to $40,000 vehicles, and doing that profitably, that’s gonna take ’til when now?

Barra: Well a lot of the vehicles that we’re putting out now as we get to scale, because we’ve brought battery manufacturing inside, we have plans and we’ve said – I don’t talk about individual product line profitability – but we’re on track for 2025 to be in that low mid single digits, and that’s before IRA, and then we’ve said later in the decade we’re gonna be at parity with ICE. So a lot of it is going to rely on continuing to improve battery chemistry and getting cost of out of the battery, ’cause that’s where the cost opportunity is.

Sorkin: Is the idea that there will be vehicles that you will sell, effectively unprofitably, to “seed the market,” if you will?

Barra: I would say we’re going to where we know the consumer has to be to get to the volume, and we’re gonna drive to profitability as quickly as possible, and then when you put things like IRA on top of it, along with the software services, I think we’re gonna see profitability even in those affordable vehicles more quickly than anyone’s expecting.

The most crucial statement here is that Barra reiterated that the company’s EVs will be profitable in 2025, and she specified here that this is without accounting for Inflation Reduction Act tax credits. IRA includes significant credits both for consumers and manufacturers.

Barra’s comments didn’t split out individual product lines, so perhaps she was talking about overall profitability across all of GM’s EV projects. This is necessarily going to be low at the moment because GM is currently spending a lot of money building manufacturing for its Ultium platform, which hasn’t produced many EVs yet. Product lines usually don’t become profitable until they’ve been manufactured for a while, as companies recoup initial investments and get costs down over time.

But what about the Bolt EV? It’s been in production for a long time now – to the point that it’s about to be discontinued. Has GM really not made any money on any of the units it has sold? Could it have done so if it had produced the car in higher volume or hadn’t dealt with an extended recall (which LG ended up paying for anyway)?

But this whole conversation is strange and has been for a long time for several reasons.

A short history of “cost parity” in EVs

There is a long history of car companies saying they can’t produce EVs profitably. One of the earliest was Fiat’s late CEO Sergio Marchionne, who famously told customers not to buy his company’s Fiat 500e because Fiat supposedly lost $14k per unit (among a lot of other bonkers EV-related comments).

Currently, most manufacturers will tell you that they are not making a direct profit on their electric vehicle lines. The most notable exception is Tesla, a company that’s focused entirely on making electric cars and, at times, has had higher margins than anyone in the overall auto industry. Those margins have now dropped as Tesla has dropped prices, starting a price war that is threatening other automakers due to Tesla’s significant apparent cost advantage.

So it is definitely strange to have every company saying that EVs are less profitable, except for the one most profitable company. That company also happens to be the one that has taken EVs the most seriously and for the longest period of time.

And, importantly, Tesla is one of few companies that doesn’t have an interest in making the public think that EVs are inferior in some way or otherwise pushing back the timeline for EV adoption. Because Tesla’s current product mix isn’t heavily fossil-based like the rest of the industry is.

But lest we think Tesla is the only exception that proves the rule, it’s not the only company that has generated a profit on EVs. The unassuming Nissan Leaf, which is currently and has historically been one of the lowest-price EVs (and lowest-price vehicles period – after state & federal credits, many buyers can get one for under 20k), started making a profit in 2014. At the time, more Leafs had been sold than any other EV worldwide, which remained the case until the Model 3 eclipsed it in 2020.

So we know that EVs can produce profit – even a lot of profit – and we know that this has been the case for a long time, even for low-cost EVs.

What does this mean for consumers?

The question Barra answered assumed that cost parity would be hard to meet, particularly in “cheaper vehicles” in the $30-40k range.

But for consumers, the cheapest vehicles have already reached price parity in many cases.

Currently, and for the better part of a year, the Chevy Bolt has been a screaming deal with its $26k base price. Then you can apply the $7,500 federal tax credit and potentially state and regional credits or other various discounts, bringing it down to a price competitive with the cheapest new vehicles in America.

And that’s not just some bare-bones get-you-there car like the universally-panned Mitsubishi Mirage, but a vehicle good enough to earn Electrek’s Vehicle of the Year award despite being at the end of its lifecycle. So you’re not just getting a low-price car, but a good car – meaning the quality-for-price metric is through the roof.

While the Bolt is being discontinued, the Leaf is still around, is still cheap, and is also a good car. The package is a little worse on value than the current Bolt is, but there will still be a solid EV in the $20k range post-credit, which is about as low as you can expect new gas cars to go.

This holds true as you go up in price, with EVs standing out in terms of value against price competitors. The Tesla Model 3 is a phenomenal car and starts at around $30k after credits. Meanwhile, its cousin, the Tesla Model Y, is currently the best-selling vehicle on Earth because of its value proposition against the competition.

And throughout all of this, we’ve only talked about the purchase price. Running costs, both fuel and maintenance, tend to be cheaper on EVs and, as such, make the total cost parity calculation even more beneficial.

And this all has been the case for some time as well. There’s been no shortage of great EV lease deals in the past, with periods where EVs could be leased at $100-200 a month with little to nothing down (after taking into account state rebates). Admittedly, many of those have dried up recently due to excessively high EV demand.

So it doesn’t make a lot of sense to say that EVs can’t reach price parity for consumers until some time in the future because it’s clear that they’re already there, even in low-price segments.

How this conversation damages EV adoption

But really, is this even a productive conversation to be having?

The constant discussion of EV profitability and “cost parity” tends to migrate out of the purely financial press and make its way into consumer circles. And through the stock market, retirement plans, and so on, some consumers are concerned about a company’s ability to make a car profitably and don’t want that company to make cars with less profit, even if that could mean lower costs for them as a consumer.

So by stating that EVs are unprofitable, companies throw cold water on the idea of EVs and make everyone feel like the “proper time” to “switch” to EVs is some time in the future rather than now. These companies that are so heavily invested in the status quo want consumers to keep buying the models they offer – which are majority-ICE for nearly every automaker out there.

The conversation itself is harmful to EV adoption, at least in the way it is commonly presented – that this timeline is coming “in the future” rather than now (that said, Barra did say that this would come “sooner than anyone’s expecting,” which is a nice improvement in messaging).

The fact is: it doesn’t matter that much if an individual car, line, or effort is profitable, depending on how it fits into the company’s strategy. And companies know this because they keep making these EVs even though they claim they’re not profitable.

Why would companies do “unprofitable” things?

Companies exist to make a profit above all. But in the course of their existence, this doesn’t mean that every decision a company makes must drive a profit immediately.

Lower-cost vehicles, regardless of powertrain, tend to have lower profit margins. These are made up for by high volume and the expectation that the company may build brand loyalty amongst customers who, as they proceed in life, may end up in a position to purchase higher-priced, higher-margin vehicles.

And as mentioned in the Barra interview, everyone sees that the market is turning towards EVs, and companies are trying to establish a presence in the EV market, which is growing rapidly while gas car sales plateau. This means that companies may consider current EVs a “loss leader” to attempt to establish market share, especially if upfront investments in future capacity – growth of the company’s EV line – are accounted for as “losses” in the present due to the high upfront costs required.

Additionally, government requirements around the world are getting stricter in terms of required EV share. Companies simply have to sell a certain amount of EVs, so it doesn’t matter if they make a profit on any individual vehicle because if they don’t do it, they will be punished. The cost of that punishment (or the cost of credit-trading schemes) is greater than whatever they claim they’re losing on EVs.

This is why, for example, Fiat still sold the 500e in 2014 despite claiming it lost money – because selling the car meant it could continue selling in California, which made Fiat more profit than not doing so.

Companies and governments have different goals

One could call this “picking winners and losers,” but that is, again, a narrow view of the situation. Companies and governments (should) have different goals. Companies are in it for profit, but governments ought to be in it to enhance the public good. And these goals can be in opposition to one another.

To a company, the costs are whatever dollars it has to spend on materials, labor, distribution, etc. But other costs are ignored by a company, and instead absorbed by the rest of society. There is a long history of doing business by externalizing costs and privatizing profits – see the parable of the tragedy of the commons.

With cars, this means exhaust pollution, which is the largest contributor to smog that harms human health. The air is a common resource that all of us need, and the pollution put into that air by automotive and oil company products is responsible for enormous health and environmental costs (e.g., wildfires due to climate change, which are currently devastating much of North America, causing lung problems and property damage). Those costs are largely not borne by the polluters that are largely responsible for them, but instead borne by all of us on the back end.

It costs manufacturers more money to install pollution control equipment and engineer more efficient vehicles than it would if they didn’t have to do either of those things. Companies lobby fiercely against any requirement that might save you money – even if it costs them little to implement – because they only care about their own costs, not society’s.

But government at least should be different than that. Governments ought to account for these additional costs to society and tell polluters they need to pay those costs upfront.

Until they do, any discussion of “cost parity” is incomplete. If each EV saves $10,000 for society in health costs alone, then it is in the public interest to have more of them and fewer of the vehicles that are choking us. And if we spend all our time focusing on the cost of EV subsidies and not the much higher costs of fossil fuel subsidies, then we aren’t truly calculating which of these technologies has higher actual costs.

For these reasons, I believe we need to retire (or at least reframe) the whole conversation about “cost parity” for EVs. Consumers can already see parity in low-cost EVs and quality-for-price across various price ranges. Companies can already see it, assuming they’re taking their EV lines seriously and not just trying to throw cold water on the whole idea of EVs in the first place. And society can already see it, given that EVs are already making the air cleaner, resulting in lower societal costs that will compound in the future.

So why do we keep talking about some incredibly narrow definition of cost parity and perpetually say that it’s coming sometime in the future when, by so many meaningful metrics, we’re already here, and everybody in the industry already knows why they have to make EVs anyway? It just doesn’t make any sense.

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ECOVACS Goat RTK robot mowers start from $850 low, Rad Power RadWagon 4 cargo e-bike $1,499, EcoFlow solar bundle flash sale, more

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July 30, 2025

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ECOVACS Goat RTK robot mowers start from 0 low, Rad Power RadWagon 4 cargo e-bike ,499, EcoFlow solar bundle flash sale, more

This week’s hump day Green Deals start off with the ECOVACS Goat O1000 RTK Robot Lawn Mower returning to its $850 low for the third time ever, while its upgraded A2500 model is down at its second-lowest price too. From there, we have a spotlight on Rad Power’s popular RadWagon 4 Cargo e-bike at $1,499 while the brand’s Back to School Sale continues through to next week, as well as EcoFlow’s final 24-hour July Monthly Madness flash sale that is taking up to 55% off DELTA 2 Max and DELTA 3 Pro solar generator bundles starting from $1,349, while also offering an increased EcoCredits purchase option. We also have a returning low on the 80V Pro-grade Greenworks 18-inch chainsaw, a one-day-only discount on Anker’s SOLIX C300X DC power station with a book-sized 60W folding panel, and more waiting for you below. Plus, all the hangover savings at the bottom of the page, like yesterday’s Navee ST3 Pro electric scooter savings, Aiper’s HydroComm pool monitor hitting its lowest price for the second time, and more.

Head below for other New Green Deals we’ve found today and, of course, Electrek’s best EV buying and leasing deals. Also, check out the new Electrek Tesla Shop for the best deals on Tesla accessories.

Save up to 35% on ECOVACS’ Goat RTK robot lawn mowers with fisheye cameras starting from an $850 low

Amazon is offering the ECOVACS Goat O1000 RTK Robot Lawn Mower for $849.99 shipped, which beats out the brand’s direct website pricing by $50. This newer lawn care solution has only been on the market for five months and normally goes for $1,000 at full price, with discounts having mostly taken the price down to $900, aside from the two recent falls to the $850 low in May and June, while getting skipped over during Prime Day sales. This is the third time that we’ve seen this all-time low price appear with $150 cut from the tag price, and you’ll also find its upgraded counterpart benefitting from a discount below.

The ECOVACS Goat O1000 robot mower is the base model of the series designed to handle up to 1/4 of an acre of land on each full charge, with it able to stop, charge, and return to its duties for larger yards. Forget having to deal with laying boundary wires here, as it’s been given RTK navigation that provides more accurate location tracking on top of efficient route planning, with bolstered support from the LiDAR (3D-ToF) and fisheye camera that can take over steering when it enters heavily shaded or tree-lined areas that the satellites can’t see into. There’s also AIVI 3D obstacle avoidance tech, with the added bonus that it can also identify small animals alongside everyday inanimate objects around your yard – whether in the sun or in the dark.

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ECOVACS’ Goat robot mowers can fit into tighter spaces between fences and the like that a normal mower may struggle or fail to tackle well, thanks to the compact and narrow design of its body, with it even given an IPX6 waterproof construction should it need to tough out sudden weather changes as it works. There’s plenty of remote smart controls available via its companion app, giving you the means to adjust settings, monitor its real-time performance, and edit the 3D maps it creates.

There’s also the more advanced ECOVACS Goat A2500 RTK Robot Lawn Mower down at its second-lowest price of $1,299.99 shipped right now, down from its $2,000 price tag. This model comes with a 32V motor and dual-blade discs, with a 5Ah battery that allows it to cover up to 5,382 square feet of mowing on a single charge, which it can be ready to pick back up on after only 45 minutes of charging at its station. It brings much of the same smart capabilities for its navigation and obstacle avoidance as the above model, with the added bonus of responding to voice commands via Alexa or Google Assistant too.

woman riding Rad Power RadWagon 4 cargo e-bike with two children

As part of its ongoing Back to School Sale running through August 6, Rad Power Bikes is offering its RadWagon 4 Cargo e-bike at $1,499 shipped, alongside the ongoing low RadExpand 5 pricing and the new RadRunner e-bike bundles. This popular model fetches $1,799 at full price, which we’ve only seen dropped down to $1,599 over the last year, with more frequent returns to $1,499 in 2025 or otherwise given some bundled accessory packages. This is the lowest price we have tracked in the last two years, beaten out by the $1,399 post-launch low from 2023 and the all-time $1,299 preorder low from its launch years before.

If you want to learn more about this model, be sure to check out our original coverage of this e-bike here, while you can also browse the entire Rad Power Back to School Sale lineup here.

man aiming solar panel towards sun on leafy ground while plugged into EcoFlow DELTA 2 max portable power station

EcoFlow’s final July Monthly Madness flash sale takes up to 55% off DELTA 2 Max and DELTA Pro 3 bundles starting from $1,349

As part of the final days of its July Monthly Madness Sale running through July 31, EcoFlow has launched the last of this sale’s scheduled 24-hour flash sales through tomorrow at 9 a.m. PDT / 12 p.m. EST with up to 55% discounts on two solar generator bundles and an increased EcoCredits one-time purchase promotion. The most budget-friendly of the two bundles gives you the DELTA 2 Max Portable Power Station with a 400W solar panel at $1,349 shipped, and that price matches at Amazon too. This bundle would normally cost you $2,298 at full price, with discounts having mostly kept costs between $1,399 and $1,599 over the year, though we have seen it go as low as $1,279 during Prime Day. You’re looking at a 55% markdown here for the next 24 hours that saves you $949 at the third-lowest price we have tracked. Head below to learn more about this unit and the other offers during this sale.

If you want to learn more about this power station or the other offers during this 24-hour flash sale, be sure to check out our original coverage of these deals here.

man cutting log with Greenworks 80V 18-inch cordless chainsaw

Cover storm cleanup, firewood, more with Greenworks’ Pro 80V 18-inch cordless chainsaw at $199 low

Amazon is offering the Greenworks Pro 80V 18-inch Brushless Cordless Chainsaw with 2.0Ah battery at $199 shipped, while it’s priced at $229 directly from the brand’s website. It carries a $350 MSRP direct from Greenworks, but we have been seeing it more often at $299 at Amazon, with discounts mostly keeping things at $229 on average, with two previous falls to the $199 low, most recently during Prime Day three weeks ago. You’re looking at the best price we have tracked on this pro-grade model, giving you significant power for sawing needs with $100 cut from the tag (and $151 off the MSRP).

If you want to learn more about this pro-tier tool, be sure to check out our original coverage of this deal here.

man and woman camping during the day and night with Anker's SOLIX C300X portable power station solar bundle

Carry Anker’s SOLIX C300X DC power station with a book-sized 60W folding solar panel at $237 (Today only)

As part of its Deals of the Day, Best Buy is now offering the Anker SOLIX C300X DC Portable Power Station bundled with a 60W foldable solar panel for $236.99 shipped. While this model starts for $330 at full price here, it carries a lower $300 tag directly from the brand’s website, where it’s currently sitting untouched by discounts, while Amazon’s matching grey colorway is priced $23 higher. For most of 2025, while there have been price cuts, they generally hit $250, though it did drop a tad lower to $230 during Prime Day, as well as $220 in February, with everything beaten out by the $190 Black Friday low. For the rest of the day, you can pick up this solar generator bundle with $63 off the going rate ($93 off the Best Buy tag) at the third-lowest price of the year and fourth-best overall.

If you want to learn more about this compact solar generator bundle, be sure to check out our coverage of this one-day-only deal here.

Best Summer EV deals!

Best new Green Deals landing this week

The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.

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Ford says it will build ‘breakthrough’ EVs in the US

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19 mins ago

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July 30, 2025

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Ford says it will build 'breakthrough' EVs in the US

Ford-Q2-2025-earnings

Ford (F) reported Q2 2025 earnings on Wednesday, beating top and bottom line expectations. Despite the revenue growth, Ford is warning profits will take a hit thanks to Trump’s tariffs. We will also learn about Ford’s plans to build “breakthrough” EVs in the US very soon.

Ford Q2 2025 earnings preview

After suspending full-year guidance in May, Ford warned that it expected to take a $2.5 billion hit from Trump’s auto tariffs.

Given that Ford builds more vehicles in the US than any major automaker, outside of Tesla, it’s expected to see less of an impact from the 25% tariff on imports.

Ford imports just about 21% of the vehicles it sells in the US. In comparison, crosstown rival GM imports around 46%. GM announced last week that the tariffs cost it an extra $1.1 billion in the second quarter. For the full year, GM still expects a $4 billion to $5 billion impact.

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Unlike GM, Ford breaks down earnings into three units, including Model e, its electric vehicle business. Ford’s Model e posted a nearly $1 billion loss in the first quarter, but new EVs rolling out in Europe boosted revenue.

Although Ford’s vehicle sales rose 14% to over 612,000 in Q2, EV sales dropped 31% to just 16,438. Ford spokesperson Martin Gunsberg told Electrek that both the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning were impacted by the changeover to the 2025 model year and the Mach-E recall.

Ford-Q2-2025-earnings
Ford Mustang Mach-E (left) and F-150 Lightning (right) (Source: Ford)

According to Estimize, Wall Street expects Ford to post second-quarter EPS of $0.33 on revenue of $43.75 billion.

Improving costs and more EV news to come

Ford beat earnings estimates posting second quarter revenue a record $50.02 billion in revenue, up 5% YOY and an adjusted EPS of $0.37.

  • Ford Q2 2025 Revenue: $50.02 billion vs $43.75 billion expected
  • Ford Q2 2025 adjusted EPS: $0.37 vs $0.33 expected

Despite the higher revenue, Ford posted a $36 million net loss, which was due to a “field service action and expenses related to a previously announced cancellation of an electric vehicle program.” It also incurred an $800 million loss due to tariffs in the quarter.

Ford Pro continues to drive both top and bottom-line growth with high-margin revenue streams from software and services.

Its Model e EV business, on the other hand, lost another $1.3 billion in the second quarter. Through the first half of the year, Model e has now lost $2.2 billion.

Ford-Q2-2025-Earnings
Ford Model e Q2 2025 earnings (Source: Ford)

Ford attributed the higher losses to tariff-related costs and investments in launching its new EV battery plant in Michigan.

After launching new EVs in Europe, like the Capri and electric Explorer, Model e’s revenue doubled to $2.4 billion. Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning material costs also improved in the quarter.

Ford-EVs-Europe
Ford’s electric vehicles in Europe from left to right: Puma Gen-E, Explorer, Capri, and Mustang Mach-E (Source: Ford)

Ford now expects full-year adjusted EBIT of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion, including a $2 billion hit from tariffs. That’s down from the $7 billion to $8.5 billion it previously forecasted.

The company will partially offset a $3 billion gross adjusted EBIT impact, partially offset by $1 billion in recovery actions.

CEO Jim Farley announced an event on August 11 in Kentucky, where Ford will share more details about its “plans to design and build breakthrough electric vehicles in America.”

Check back for more info from Ford’s Q2 2025 earnings call. We will keep you updated with the latest.

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Tesla is about to lose the $7,500 EV tax credit – again – and this time the cliff is a lot steeper

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31 mins ago

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July 30, 2025

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Tesla is about to lose the ,500 EV tax credit – again – and this time the cliff is a lot steeper

Tesla family hero

Tesla is about to tumble off a familiar policy cliff. The $7,500 federal tax credit that juiced demand for electric vehicles in the US, Tesla’s last large, healthy market, after September 30, 2025. Tesla has been here before, but the ground underneath the company looks very different today.

Let’s dig into what happened last time, what’s changing now, and why Elon Musk is already warning shareholders of “tough quarters ahead.”

We have been here before. Tesla lost access to parts of the federal tax credit for electric vehicles in 2019 and lost it fully by 2020.

Flashback: the 2019 credit phase‑out was painful—but survivable

  • Trigger: Tesla crossed 200,000 cumulative US deliveries in July 2018, starting a timer that halved the credit to $3,750 on Jan 1, 2019, and again to $1,875 on Jul 1, 2019, before it went to zero on Jan 1, 2020.
  • Tesla’s playbook: On Jan 2, 2019 the company shaved $2,000 off the sticker of every Model S, X, and 3 to “partially absorb” the lost incentive.
  • Demand whiplash: The price cut wasn’t enough to avoid a huge pull‑forward. Deliveries spiked in Q4 2018, then fell 31 % QoQ in Q1 2019.
  • Fast recovery: Thanks to Model Y’s arrival and virtually zero credible EV competitors, Tesla ended 2019 with 367,500 global deliveries (‑US dip only 1 %) and roared back to 499,550 in 2020.

Last time, the phase-out was gradual, enabling Tesla to fill the hole with price cuts.

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Most importantly, the phase-out period coincided with the launch of Model Y, which never had full access to the federal tax credit, allowing Tesla to grow in the US without it.

The 2025 sunset hits everyone, but it hurts Tesla most

The situation in 2025 is vastly different. Firstly, the EV market has undergone significant changes in the US. Tesla is still the biggest brand, but it’s nowhere near where it was 5 years ago:

2020 cliff 2025 cliff
Who lost the credit? Only Tesla and GM Every OEM, but Tesla sells the most EVs
Competitive field < 15 mainstream EVs on sale > 60 credit‑eligible models in showrooms
Tesla US share ~75 % of EVs 46 % in Q1 2025 and sliding
Gross margin cushion ~22 % automotive ~17 % in Q1 2025 after a year of price cuts

Furthermore, the impact of the tax credit was greater in the latest version. The Biden administration reinstated Tesla’s access to the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles in 2022 through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

However, it became even more attractive in 2024 when the government made it a “point-of-sale” incentive, which was applied directly to the vehicle’s price rather than as a rebate on taxes.

Going from that to nothing is expected to have a greater impact on demand for electric vehicles in the US.

What can Tesla do this time?

As last time, Tesla is expected to cut prices to compensate for the tax credit’s expiration.

However, Tesla has slimmer gross margins than it did previously, and it is not expected to be able to cut prices enough to compensate for the $7,500 price difference.

In addition to cutting prices, Tesla is expected to launch a stripped-down version of the Model Y with fewer features, which should significantly reduce the base price of its most popular model.

It should help with demand and avoid a greater reduction in Tesla’s production line capacity in Fremont and Austin, but with less value than the current versions of the Model Y, it is expected to cannibalize the more expensive versions of the best-selling vehicle mostly.

Key Take‑away 2018‑20 Phase‑out September 30 2025 Sunset (forward‑looking)
Trigger Tesla hit 200 000 cumulative U.S. EV deliveries in July 2018; credit stepped to $0 on 1 Jan 2020. Statutory clean‑vehicle credit (up to $7 500 new / $4 000 used) ends for all manufacturers on 30 Sep 2025 under the IRA sunset clause.
Immediate demand reaction Pull‑forward surges before each step‑down (Q4 2018, Q2 2019) followed by soft Q1 2019 deliveries (‑31 % QoQ). Dealers already advertising “buy before it’s gone,” and analysts expect a Q3 2025 bump.
Volume impact in the first full no‑credit year Tesla U.S. sales dipped only 1 % in 2019 and re‑accelerated +50 % in 2020 despite $0 credit, helped by Model Y launch and limited competition. Competitive landscape is radically different—Tesla’s U.S. EV share has slipped from 62 % in 2022 to 46 % in Q1 2025. Demand is more price‑sensitive.
Profit levers used $2 000–$3 000 price cuts, feature unbundling, and manufacturing scale offset lost credit. To replicate prior success Tesla would need deeper price moves or zero‑interest financing, pressuring gross margin already down ~650 bps YoY by Q1 2025.
Strategic cushion First‑mover advantage; few high‑volume rivals. 60+ eligible models from 17 brands compete in sub‑$60 k bracket; used‑EV market growing; interest‑rate environment still elevated.

Electrek’s Take

Shareholders should brace for the worst here. I know many of them have been holding on to the fact that Tesla did quite well after the removal of the tax credit last time, but as explained above, this time is entirely different.

The US has been Tesla’s only somewhat healthy market amongst the large automotive markets (US, Europe, and China). That’s because it is an uncompetitive market when it comes to electric vehicles.

Foreign EVs are not eligible for the tax credit, and Chinese EVs are subject to a 100% tariff.

The result is that Tesla was able to maintain a 45% (but declining) market share in the US EV market, compared to just 9% in Europe and 4% in China.

Now, demand for electric vehicles in the US is expected to crash.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk knows that he has warned that the automaker might face some “tough quarters” in “Q4 2025, and Q1 and Q2 2026.” After that, he expects Tesla to do well thanks to autonomous driving, but he has been consistently wrong about that for years.

I think the crash in demand will be accentuated in Q4 due to demand being pulled forward in Q3, which is likely to be Tesla’s last good quarter for a long time.

We are about to see Tesla’s sales decline, most likely sharply, in the US, while they have already crashed in Europe and are experiencing a decline in China due to intense competition.

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