Plans to better protect vital UK industries and help businesses export have been revealed by the government, as the world continues to grapple with the effects of Donald Trump’s trade war.

A trade strategy, to be published on Thursday, aims to make the UK the best-connected country to do business, aided by looser regulation and increased access to finance.

It forms part of the government’s efforts to get business back on side after the backlash which followed the tax-raising budget and its “plan for change” to boost meagre economic growth.

The plan follows hot on the heels of a trade deal which spares the UK from some of the US president’s most punitive duties, and a more wide-ranging agreement with India.

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The strategy – the first since Brexit – also aims to capitalise on a relaxation in some EU rules on trade, and the separate industrial strategy outlined earlier this week that will give energy-intensive businesses help in bolstering their competitiveness through cuts to their bills.

Jonathan Reynolds, the business and trade secretary, said: “The UK is an open trading nation but we must reconcile this with a new geopolitical reality and work in our own national interest.

“Our Trade Strategy will sharpen our trade defence so we can ensure British businesses are protected from harm, while also relentlessly pursuing every opportunity to sell to more markets under better terms than before.”

The department said that the capacity of UK Export Finance, the UK’s export credit agency, was to be expanded by £20bn and funding would also be set aside to tackle complex regulatory issues and remove obstacles for exporters.

The US trade war provides both opportunities and threats to UK firms.

The steel sector is to be consulted on what new protections can be put in place from June 2026 once current safeguards, covering things like cheap Chinese imports, are due to expire.

The trade and industrial strategies have been revealed at a time of crisis for both steel and chemicals linked to high costs.

British Steel is now under the control of the UK government in a bid to protect the country’s ability to produce so-called virgin steel following the closures of the blast furnaces at Tata’s Port Talbot works.

It was announced on Wednesday that Saudi firm Sabic was to shut its Olefins 6 ethylene plant at Wilton on Teesside, leaving more than 300 jobs at risk.

Like British Steel’s owner Jingye, Sabic has blamed high energy bills.

Eliminating some of those costs, under the industrial strategy plans, would not kick in until 2026 at the earliest.

At the same time, Associated British Foods (ABF) is to make a decision on Thursday on whether to shut the UK’s largest bioethanol plant in Hull.

ABF has complained that the Vivergo Fuels factory has had the rug pulled from under it by the UK government as its recent trade deal with the US allows subsidised US ethanol into the country.

A second UK bioethanol plant, owned by Ensus, is at risk of closure on Teesside.

The steel industry lobby group said the trade strategy would build on work in the industrial strategy to provide a more stable platform for the sector.

UK Steel’s director general Gareth Stace, said: “For too long, the government has been hamstrung by self-imposed rules that allow bad actors to take advantage of our open market.

“This has enabled state-subsidised steel to rip market share away from domestic producers, at the cost of thousands of good jobs in some of the most economically vulnerable regions in the country, and fracturing manufacturing supply chains, making us more reliant on imports.

“We need swift and decisive action to build a trade defence regime that is fit for purpose and in place before current safeguards expire in 2026.

“With the right tools and the political will to use them, the UK can reassert control over its steel market, protect skilled jobs, and give investors the confidence that the UK steel sector has a strong and sustainable future.”

The Reform Party is on track to get the most seats if an election took place this year – with combined support for the Conservatives and Labour collapsing to less than half of the national vote, new in-depth polling suggests.

Analysts at YouGov have carried out their first Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll since the last general election. The research is based on thousands of people, and links voters and characteristics to help with its projection.

It is not a forecast, but an estimate of what could happen. The next election is not set to happen until 2029.

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This is the first such piece of research published by YouGov since the last general election, and is more in-depth than standard polling where people are just asked who they want to vote for.

With a sample size of 11,500 people, it found that if a general election were to happen tomorrow, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would win 271 seats – the most of any party.

Labour would secure just 178 seats, less than half of the 411 it won last year.

The Tories would fall to fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats, with just 46 Conservative MPs projected.

The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, would gain nine extra seats to build a Commons caucus of 81 MPs, while the SNP would once again be the largest party in Scotland.

Both the Greens and Plaid Cymru would gain three seats each to both hold seven slots in parliament.

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If this scenario were to materialise, it would mean a coalition government would be needed, as no one party would have a majority.

It is unclear what any such coalition would look like. If Reform and the Conservatives teamed up, they would only have 317 seats – short of the 325 needed.

Theresa May won 317 seats in 2017, and attempted to govern with the support of the Northern Irish DUP support.

YouGov said: “Reform’s meteoric rise to becoming comfortably the largest party in a hung parliament is driven by impressive performances right across the country – including in Scotland.”

The two major political parties of the last century would between them have just 224 seats, fewer than Reform is set to take by itself.

Possibility of rainbow coalition

Labour and the Conservatives would together have the support of just 41% of voters – down from 59% last year.

The report released by YouGov said: “That a clear majority would now vote for someone other than the two established main parties of British politics is a striking marker of just how far the fragmentation of the voting public has gone over the past decade.”

It added: “According to our data and methods, 26% of voters would opt for Reform UK, 23% for Labour, 18% for the Conservatives, 15% the Liberal Democrats, 11% the Greens, 3% the SNP, 1% Plaid, and 2% for other parties and independent candidates.”

According to YouGov, Reform came out top of the polls in 99% of their simulations, with the rest having Labour at the top.

Some 97% of simulations had a hung parliament – where no one party has a majority – as the outcome.

In around 9% of simulations, Reform and the Conservatives have enough seats together to form a government, while in only “a tiny fraction” do Labour and the Lib Dems have enough together to govern.

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YouGov says “rainbow style coalition possibilities do appear”.

“For instance, combining the Labour, Liberal Democrat, and SNP totals produces a majority in just 3% of simulations.
“Adding the Greens brings this figure to 11%, while adding Plaid pushes it up to 26%.”