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Rising mortgage rates have yet to hit the housing market but threaten to be a “significant drag” in the short-term, Nationwide has said.

However, the high street lender said “a relatively soft landing is still possible” against a backdrop of income growth and modest falls in property prices.

The building society also said while typical homeowners coming off fixed rate mortgage deals face significant increases in their monthly payments, it points out those borrowers had been “stress tested” for higher rates and so should be able to cope.

Cost of living latest – Energy bills to fall by hundreds

As such the market was unlikely to see “waves of forced selling”, providing the labour market and interest rates followed expectations.

The assessment came after fixed-rate mortgage deals recently broke through the 6% mark following on from the Bank of England increasing the the base rate from 4.5% to 5% in a bid to cool inflation, which remains stubbornly high at 8.7%.

Nationwide’s data indicated house prices fell by 3.5% in the year to June, following a 3.4% drop the previous month.

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Prices were fairly stable over the month, rising by a modest 0.1%, reversing a 0.1% month-on-month decline in May.

The average UK house price in June was £262,239.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “Longer term borrowing costs have risen to levels similar to those prevailing in the wake of the mini-budget last year, but this has yet to have the same negative impact on sentiment.

“For example, the number of mortgage applications has not yet declined and indicators of consumer confidence have continued to improve, though they remain below long run averages.

“The sharp increase in borrowing costs is likely to exert a significant drag on housing market activity in the near term.”

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What’s going on with mortgages?

But he added: “Nevertheless, a relatively soft landing is still possible, providing the broader economy performs as we (and most other forecasters) expect.

“Labour market conditions are expected to remain relatively robust, with the unemployment rate remaining below 5%, while income growth is projected to remain solid. With Bank rate likely to peak in the quarters ahead, longer term interest rates should also start to fall back.

“As a result, a combination of healthy rates of income growth and modest price declines should improve affordability over time, especially if mortgage rates moderate.”

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Mr Gardner pointed out that for people coming off two-year fixed-rate mortgage, a new two-year deal could equate to an increase of £385 per month for a typical borrower.

Those coming off five-year deals face an increase of around £315 per month.

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Scale of rate hike is shock therapy for UK’s inflation problem

He said: “Clearly this represents a significant increase, but those borrowers were stress tested at interest rates above those now prevailing in the market to ensure they could cope with such an increase.

“Moreover, incomes have been rising at a solid pace in recent years. Lenders will also work with borrowers to provide assistance wherever possible.

“Therefore, providing the labour market and interest rates perform broadly as expected, we are unlikely to see the waves of forced selling which would probably be required to result in a more disorderly adjustment to the housing market.”

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Managing director of House Buyer Bureau, Chris Hodgkinson, said: “For those looking to sell, current market conditions are a tad hit and miss. We’ve seen fluctuating levels of buyer demand in recent months and, with house prices continuing to stutter due to a reduction in buyer purchasing power, many sellers are also unwilling to commit.

“The result is more time spent on the market, while those that do secure a buyer are subject to longer transaction times and a heightened chance that their sale will fail to make the finish line.”

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Heathrow puts Jansen on runway as next chairman

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Heathrow puts Jansen on runway as next chairman

The former BT Group chief Philip Jansen is being lined up as the next chairman of Heathrow Airport as Britain’s biggest aviation hub prepares to deliver an expansion costing close to £50bn.

Sky News has learnt that Mr Jansen, who chairs the FTSE-100 marketing services group WPP, is in advanced talks with Heathrow’s board and shareholders about taking on the role.

If the discussions reach a successful conclusion, sources said an announcement could come within weeks.

Mr Jansen is said to have emerged as the frontrunner from a shortlist of candidates compiled by headhunters at Russell Reynolds Associates.

His experience as the boss of BT, a regulated utility, is said to have been key to his selection as the preferred candidate.

Mr Jansen has also run companies including MyTravel and Worldpay.

The appointment of a successor to Lord Deighton, who has held the post for nine years, comes at a critical time for Heathrow.

In August, the airport submitted a revised expansion plan consisting of a third runway costing £21bn, £12bn for a new terminal and stand capacity, and £15bn to modernise the current airport through the expansion of Terminal 2.

The existing Terminal 3 would ultimately be closed.

Read more: Full details of Heathrow’s plans for a third runway revealed

Heathrow handled a record 83.9 million passengers in 2024 and is adamant that a third runway is essential to the growth of Britain’s economy, given the volume of exports which pass through the site.

“It has never been more important or urgent to expand Heathrow,” the airport’s chief executive, Thomas Woldbye, said in August.

“We are effectively operating at capacity to the detriment of trade and connectivity.

“With a green light from government and the correct policy support underpinned by a fit for purpose regulatory model, we are ready to mobilise and start investing this year in our supply chain across the country.

“We are uniquely placed to do this for the country; it is time to clear the way for take-off.”

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The expansion remains opposed by many airlines alarmed by the prospective increase in charges to use the airport, as well

It has, however, been backed by the government, with Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, saying that a third runway “would unlock further growth, boost investment, increase exports, and make the UK more open and more connected as part of our Plan for Change”.

Heathrow’s next chairman will lead a board dominated by representatives of the airport’s principal shareholders.

Mr Woldbye apologised in May for being asleep during the power outage in March which forced Heathrow’s temporary closure.

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‘Serious questions’ after Heathrow fire

The airport said it would implement the recommendations of a review conducted by former transport secretary Ruth Kelly.

Heathrow’s search for a new chairman comes months after the most significant changes to its ownership structure in years.

Ardian, a French investment group, now owns 32.6% of the company following a series of transactions over the last 12 months.

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has also become an investor.

Heathrow has never formally announced Lord Deighton’s intention to step down, other than a disclosure in its annual report in which he wrote:

“In light of the recent changes to the HAHL [Heathrow Airport Holdings Limited] board…the nominations committee…has asked me to extend my appointment for a limited period to help ensure a smooth transition whilst new non-executive shareholder directors become familiar with the business and a new chair is appointed.

“I have therefore agreed to extend my role as chair for a limited period to ensure continuity and stability on the HAHL Board during this period of transition.”

A Heathrow spokesperson declined to comment, while Mr Jansen could not be reached for comment.

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Major milestone in Post Office scandal as first Capture conviction referred to Court of Appeal

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Major milestone in Post Office scandal as first Capture conviction referred to Court of Appeal

The first Post Office Capture conviction has now been formally referred to the Court of Appeal, marking a major milestone in the IT scandal.

The Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) made the decision to refer the case of sub-postmistress Patricia Owen back in July.

Mrs Owen was convicted of theft by a jury in 1998, based on evidence from the faulty IT software Capture.

She was given a suspended prison sentence and fought to clear her name afterwards – but died in 2003.

Capture software was used in 2,500 branches between 1992 and 1999.

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The first Capture conviction was sent for appeal in July

It is the first time a conviction based on Capture – the predecessor to the Horizon system at the centre of the wider Post Office scandal – has reached the Court of Appeal.

It comes after Sky News revealed that a damning report into Capture, which could help overturn convictions, had been unearthed after nearly 30 years.

An investigation found the Post Office knew about the report at the time and continued to prosecute sub-postmasters based on Capture evidence.

Mrs Owen’s family submitted an application to the CCRC in January 2024 – her case has now been referred on the grounds that her prosecution was an “abuse of process”.

A ‘touchstone case’ for victims

Lawyers have said that if Mrs Owen is exonerated posthumously in the Court of Appeal, it may “speed up” the handling of others.

The CCRC is also continuing to investigate more than 30 other “pre-Horizon” convictions.

CCRC chair, Dame Vera Baird, also told Sky News in the summer it could be a “touchstone case” for other victims.

Juliet Shardlow, Mrs Owen’s daughter, has been fighting to clear her mother’s name for years.

She told Sky News the family were “so pleased” her case had finally been referred.

“This has been a very long journey for us as a family and we can now see the light at the end of the tunnel,” she said.

“It’s just sad that mum isn’t here to see it.

“The good news is that once mum’s case is heard in the High Court, it will pave the way for all the other Capture victims.”

The Post Office has previously said it is “determined that past wrongs are put right and continue to support the government’s work in this area as well as fully co-operate with the Criminal Cases Review Commission”.

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UK suffers blow in bid to become minerals superpower – as it’s snubbed by its own leading firm

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UK suffers blow in bid to become minerals superpower - as it's snubbed by its own leading firm

Britain’s hopes of becoming a critical minerals superpower have been dealt a severe blow after one of its leading companies abandoned its plans to build a rare earths refinery near Hull.

Pensana had pledged to build a £250m refinery on the banks of the Humber, to process rare earths that would have then been used to make magnets for electric cars and wind turbines.

The plant promised to create 126 jobs and was due to receive millions of pounds of government funding.

However, Sky News has learnt that Pensana has decided to scrap the Hull plant and will instead move its refining operations to the US.

Pensana’s chairman, Paul Atherley, said the company had taken the decision after the Trump administration committed to buying rare earths from an American mine, Mountain Pass, at a guaranteed price – something no government in Europe had done.

“That’s repriced the market – and Washington is looking to do more of these deals, moving at an absolute rate of knots,” he said.

“Europe and the UK have been talking about critical minerals for ages. But when the Americans do it, they go big and hard, and make it happen. We don’t; we mostly just talk about it.”

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Can Trump win the mineral war?

The decision comes at a crucial juncture in critical minerals and geopolitics. China produces roughly 90% of all finished rare earth metals – exotic elements essential for the manufacture of many technology, energy and military products.

Last week, Beijing imposed restrictions on the exports of rare earths, prompting Donald Trump to threaten further 100% tariffs on China.

Pensana had been seen as Britain’s answer to the periodic panics about the availability of rare earths. The site at Saltend Chemicals Park was chosen by the government to launch its critical minerals strategy in 2022.

Visiting for the official groundbreaking, the then business and energy secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said: “This incredible facility will be the only one of its kind in Europe and will help secure the resilience of Britain’s supplies into the future.”

He pledged a government grant to support the scheme. That grant was never received because Pensana never built its plant.

Read more from Sky News:
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Paul Atherley and Kwasi Kwarteng at a groundbreaking ceremony for the plant in July 2022. Pic: Pensana
Image:
Paul Atherley and Kwasi Kwarteng at a groundbreaking ceremony for the plant in July 2022. Pic: Pensana

Mr Atherley said he is optimistic about another project he’s involved with, to bring lithium refining to Teesside through another company, Tees Valley Lithium.

But, he said, rare earth processing is far more complex, energy-intensive and expensive, making it unviable in the UK, for the time being.

The decision is a further blow for Britain’s chemicals industry, which has faced a series of closures in recent months, including that of Vivergo, a biofuels refiner based in the same chemicals park where Pensana planned to locate its refinery.

Producers warn that Britain’s record energy costs – higher than most other leading economies – are stifling its economy and triggering an outflow of businesses.

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