Connect with us

Published

on

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella arrives at the U.S. DIstrict Court for the Northern District of California in San Francisco on June 28, 2023.

Philip Pacheco | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Microsoft and its current major acquisition target, video game publisher Activision Blizzard, have wrapped up their five days in court in San Francisco as the Federal Trade Commission sought to stop the deal from closing, but not without several fascinating facts coming to light.

And not only about games. Information on Microsoft’s business ambitions, its process for okaying acquisitions, and its most critical rivals in cybersecurity was revealed as part of the hearing process, thanks to documents and testimony from executives. Large releases like this don’t happen every day, and in the past several years Microsoft has avoided prominent trials that can result in several notable disclosures at once.

The FTC had originally planned to bring its case against the deal before an administrative law judge in August but then opted to seek a preliminary injunction in federal court as the agency became worried that Microsoft would try to close, even though some jurisdictions had not cleared the purchase.

In addition to regulators in the U.S. and the United Kingdom, Sony also opposes the deal. Its PlayStation 5 console competes with the Xbox Series S and X consoles, and the company has said that anticompetitive effects would arise if Microsoft were to take control of Activision Blizzard.

Here’s a rundown of notable facts that have trickled out in recent days and are still lingering after both parties presented their closing arguments on Thursday.

  • Mobile, mobile, mobile. The impulse to expand Microsoft’s gaming business on mobile devices at least in part inspired the Activision acquisition. “It was very imperative to us if we were going to remain [relevant and] grow relevance in the market, we were going to have to find mobile customers for Xbox,” Phil Spencer, Microsoft’s CEO of gaming, said last Friday. Revenue from mobile gaming is growing faster than revenue from gaming on PCs or consoles, and Microsoft executives repeatedly said in the hearings that the company has made little progress on building key mobile gaming content.
  • Several earlier mobile targets. Microsoft considered several other companies before choosing to buy Activision Blizzard, including FarmVille publisher Zynga, Pokemon Go developer Niantic and Japanese digital entertainment mainstays Sega Sammy and Square Enix, according to testimony and documents released in the case.
  • Interest in Asia. While Xbox consoles have a respectable market share in the U.S., they’re less popular in Japan, where Nintendo and Sony rule. A 2019 analysis Microsoft produced for a possible Square Enix bid said that “acquiring Square Enix would provide Gaming with market relevance in a region that currently lacks a meaningful Xbox presence, allowing us to reach more gamers in more geographies.”
  • Valuable incentives. Sony has paid game developers fees to discourage them from shipping games such as “Ghostwire: Tokyo” and “Deathloop” on Xbox, Microsoft executives said. Microsoft pays its own fees, and Spencer said that buying Activision Blizzard would mean Microsoft wouldn’t have to spend as much on incentives.
  • Many games under consideration. One of the more dramatic moments in the five days of hearings was when the FTC’s lead lawyer, James Weingarten, sought to push Spencer to make certain commitments on Microsoft’s part. Weingarten got Spencer to say he would not pull any future Call of Duty game from PlayStation consoles, a statement that was in keeping with what Microsoft has said for months. Then Weingarten went further, asking Spencer to do the same thing with all Activision content. Spencer did not immediately agree. Activision Blizzard publishes many other games besides Call of Duty, such as those in the Diablo and Overwatch franchises, but the bulk of the attention was on Call of Duty. Jim Ryan, CEO of Sony Interactive Entertainment, wasn’t happy with a Microsoft-generated list of Activision Blizzard games that would remain accessible on the PlayStation after the acquisition closes. “Overwatch is there, but Overwatch 2 is not on there, which is the current version of the game,” he said.
  • Microsoft’s long-range ambitions. The FTC managed to get ahold of documents Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella sent to top executives and fellow board members that laid out Microsoft’s financial goals for the current decade. The documents showed that Nadella is aiming for Microsoft to generate $500 billion by the 2030 fiscal year, with at least 10% year-over-year revenue growth. One document said Microsoft’s Security, Compliance, Identity and Management business could reach $100 billion in revenue by the 2030 fiscal year, while the company wants its Teams communication app to reach 1 billion monthly active users by then.
  • Weak hardware access. Spencer said during his testimony that Sony was reluctant to send Microsoft development kits for the PlayStation 5 before its 2020 release, and that prevented Microsoft from optimizing its Minecraft game for Sony’s current console. That put the game at a disadvantage compared with other developers, Spencer said. Ryan, from Sony, explained why his company provides development kits to Microsoft later than it does for other studios. “The commercial risks associated with this knowledge of those feature sets leaking to our principal competitor is not something that we would choose to rely on any contract to enforce,” Ryan said. Gamers can find an older version of Minecraft on the PlayStation 5.
  • Deal threshold. Amy Hood, Microsoft’s finance chief, said in written testimony for the hearing that she provides final approval for proposed deals under a certain dollar amount, but Microsoft’s board must sign off on deals valued above $500 million. Microsoft had $104 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of March, and 2022 revenue exceeded $204 billion.
  • Negotiating leverage. Microsoft was determined to ensure that Activision Blizzard’s Call of Duty games remain on Xbox for its current generation, which debuted in 2020. Bobby Kotick, Activision Blizzard’s CEO, conveyed that if Microsoft refused to provide a more favorable revenue share than the usual 70-30 split, then the games would not continue to be available, Microsoft executive Sarah Bond said. An FTC lawyer accidentally mentioned that Microsoft agreed to accept 20% instead of the typical 30%.
  • Sony’s altered expectations. In early 2022, two days after Microsoft announced its plan to buy Activision Blizzard, Ryan wrote in an email to another Sony Group executive that he was “pretty sure” Call of Duty would be available on PlayStation consoles for many years. But he appeared to lose confidence in that belief. In videotaped testimony, Ryan said he had “significant concerns” as to whether Call of Duty and other Activision Blizzard games would continue to be available on PlayStation after the transaction.
  • Kotick’s console mistake. Kotick has been in video games for decades, and he fumbled when he looked for the first time at the Nintendo Switch console and decided that it would not be successful. He had been more impressed with Nintendo’s earlier Wii console. The Switch became the third best-selling console of all time. When an FTC lawyer asked Kotick if Activision Blizzard would produce a Call of Duty game for a future Nintendo console, he said, “We missed out on the opportunity for the past generation of Switch, so I would like to think we would be able to do that, but we’d have to look.”
  • Game Pass opposition. Kotick made it clear that while Activision Blizzard has experimented with putting games in subscription libraries, he didn’t think they would lead to “sustainable long-term business.” He said he considered putting games on Game Pass in 2020 during negotiations with Microsoft over Activision Blizzard’s most recent licensing agreement, but ultimately the company decided not to go forward with it, he said. He couldn’t imagine anyone offering commercial terms that would be favorable, he said.
  • Whither Amazon? Weingarten pointed out that while Microsoft agreed to provide Call of Duty to small cloud gaming players such as Boosteroid and Ubitus, it has not done the same with Amazon, which fields the Luna cloud gaming service. Amazon is among Microsoft’s most prominent competitors in the cloud-computing business.
  • Cloud flop. Microsoft has sought to supplement PC and console gaming with a cloud-based streaming option, which is included with the Game Pass Ultimate service, along with a library of games to download and play for a monthly fee. Microsoft began testing cloud gaming with consumers in 2019. Bond testified that gamers mainly use the cloud option not with their phones but with their consoles, while they wait for downloads to finish. At that point, they switch to playing games locally, she said. The cloud gaming option is not growing and is unprofitable, Tim Stuart, finance chief for Microsoft’s Xbox division, said during his testimony. “The feedback to date is that it’s just not good enough as a — you know, definitely as a substitute to any of the current platforms,” Nadella said. “But you know, it can break through at some point, on something new, but it’s not yet happened, both on the economics as well as the content side.”
  • Sizing up cloud infrastructure. The big-picture memos from Nadella contained figures for the scale of various businesses across Microsoft, and one is more important than the others for the company’s investors. Perhaps the most closely tracked number in Microsoft’s earnings report after revenue and earnings is the growth of the Azure public cloud, because the software maker doesn’t disclose Azure revenue in dollars. One of the Nadella memos said Microsoft’s “infrastructure” revenue in the 2022 fiscal year was $34 billion. The tally was “very close to our estimates,” Bernstein Research analysts led by Mark Moerdler, with the equivalent of a buy rating on Microsoft stock, said in a Thursday note.
  • Critical security rivals. One of the documents that became publicly available as part of the hearing identified four security companies that Microsoft used to track its sprawling cybersecurity operation. The results contributed to a scorecard to assess performance among Microsoft’s top executives. Scorecard metrics included the percentage of “managed accounts with at least one Okta detection,” the percentage of “commercial Windows 10/11 MAD [monthly active devices] that have CrowdStrike components detected,” the percentage of “mail recipients that are protected by Proofpoint,” and percentage of “Commercial Windows 10/11 MAD that have Symantec DLP components detected.”
  • Exclusive exploration. Microsoft has argued that it would keep Call of Duty on PlayStation and make games in that franchise available on multiple cloud streaming services for a decade. “The acquisition’s strategic rationale and financial valuation are both aligned toward making Activision games more widely available, not less,” Hood said in written testimony. But on the fifth and final day of hearings, the FTC succeeded in getting witnesses to show that Microsoft did evaluate ways of trying to reduce the availability of Activision Blizzard content on the Sony PlayStation. Stuart confirmed that in preparation for a Microsoft board meeting, executives examined a scenario of lower sales of Activision Blizzard games on the PlayStation and ways of making up for the shortfall with sales of more Xbox consoles and Game Pass subscriptions.

Activision Blizzard and Microsoft have agreed to terminate the deal if it’s not done by July 18. District Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley said on Thursday that she isn’t sure when she’ll decide on the preliminary injunction. “But obviously, I’m mindful,” she said.

WATCH: Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella to testify today

Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella to testify today

Continue Reading

Technology

AI boom is fueling a memory chip shortage that could hit cars and phones

Published

on

By

AI boom is fueling a memory chip shortage that could hit cars and phones

A SK Hynix Inc. 12-layer HBM3E memory chip displayed at the Semiconductor Exhibition in Seoul, South Korea.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Chipmakers and analysts are warning of a memory chip shortage that could hit the consumer electronics and automotive industries next year, as companies prioritize massive demand from the artificial intelligence boom. 

In an earnings call on Friday, the CEO of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, China’s largest contract chipmaker, said that fears of a memory chip shortage were prompting its customers to hold back orders for other types of chips used in their products.

“Everyone is hesitant to place too many orders or ship too much in the first quarter of next year because they don’t know how many mobile phones, cars, or other products [the memory chip industry] can supply,” said Zhao Haijun, SMIC’s co-CEO, according to a Google translation.

Analysts say these supply constraint concerns come as chip manufacturers focus on advanced memory chips used in artificial intelligence computing, with less focus on production needed for consumer products. 

“The AI build-out is absolutely eating up a lot of the available chip supply, and 2026 looks to be far bigger than this year in terms of overall demand,” Dan Nystedt, vice president of research at TriOrient, told CNBC. 

AI servers primarily run on processors from chip designers like Nvidia. These AI processors heavily rely on a type of memory known as High-Bandwidth Memory or HBM, which has proven extremely lucrative for memory companies like SK Hynix and Micron to pursue. 

Memory suppliers have been chasing as much of this AI demand as possible thanks to typically high margins, Nystedt said, noting that AI server companies are willing to pay top dollar for premium chips. 

“It could be very bad for PCs, laptops, consumer electronics and automotive, which depend on cheap memory chips,” he said. 

Perhaps a bigger issue, however, is that the memory industry suffered some severe downturns in 2023 and part of 2024, leading to under-investment in the industry. “They’re building new capacity now, but it will take time to get running.”

Broader impacts 

In the face of supply constraints, memory companies have reportedly been raising prices of their chips. 

Just last Friday, Reuters reported that Samsung Electronics had quietly raised prices on select memory chips by as much as 60% compared to September. Samsung didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. 

“With memory prices rising and availability shrinking, concerns about production bottlenecks are gaining traction,” M.S. Hwang, research director at Counterpoint Research, told CNBC. 

“Supply tightness is already hitting low-end smartphones and set-top boxes, but we think the risk could broaden,” he added. 

China is “feeling the pinch more acutely” due to high reliance on low-cost devices, but Hwang cautioned that the supply constraints were a global problem.  

In the meantime, consumers could pay the price of memory shortages. 

In a report on Monday, tech-focused market intelligence and consulting firm TrendForce predicted that the memory industry has begun a “robust upward pricing cycle,” which could force downstream brands to hike retail prices, adding pressure on the consumer market.

As a result, the research group predicted increased price and demand pressures for consumer products like smartphones and notebooks. 

Continue Reading

Technology

Americans are heating their homes with bitcoin this winter

Published

on

By

Americans are heating their homes with bitcoin this winter

As winter’s chill settles in across the U.S., and electricity bills become a bigger budgeting issue, most Americans will rely on their usual sources of warmth, such as home heating oil, natural gas, and electric furnaces. But in a few cases, crypto is generating the heat, and if some of the nascent crypto heat industry’s proponents are correct, someday its use as a source within homes and buildings will be much more widespread.

Let’s start with the basics: the computing power of crypto mining generates a lot of heat, most which just ends up vented into the air. According to digital assets brokerage, K33, the bitcoin mining industry generates about 100 TWh of heat annually — enough to heat all of Finland. This energy waste within a very energy-intense industry is leading entrepreneurs to look for ways to repurpose the heat for homes, offices, or other locations, especially in colder weather months.

During a frigid snap earlier this year, The New York Times reviewed HeatTrio, a $900 space heater that also doubles as a bitcoin mining rig. Others use the heat from their own in-home cryptocurrency mining to spread warmth throughout their house.

“I’ve seen bitcoin rigs running quietly in attics, with the heat they generate rerouted through the home’s ventilation system to offset heating costs. It’s a clever use of what would otherwise be wasted energy,” said Jill Ford, CEO of Bitford Digital, a sustainable bitcoin mining company based in Dallas. “Using the heat is another example of how crypto miners can be energy allies if you apply some creativity to their potential,” Ford said.

It’s not necessarily going to save someone money on their electric bill — the economics will vary greatly from place to place and person to person, based on factors including local electricity rates and how fast a mining machine is — but the approach might make money to offset heating costs.

“Same price as heating the house, but the perk is that you are mining bitcoin,” Ford said.

A single mining machine — even an older model — is sufficient. Solo miners can join mining pools to share computing power and receive proportional payouts, making returns more predictable and changing the economic equation.  

“The concept of using crypto mining or GPU compute to heat homes is clever in theory because almost all the energy consumed by computation is released as heat,” said Andrew Sobko, founder of Argentum AI, which is creating a marketplace for the sharing of computing power. But he added that the concept makes the most sense in larger settings, particularly in colder climates or high-density buildings, such as data centers, where compute heat shows real promise as a form of industrial-scale heat recapture.

To make it work — it’s not like you can transport the heat somewhere by truck or train — you have to identity where the computing heat is needed and route it to that place, such as co-locating GPUs in environments from industrial parks to residential buildings.

“We’re working with partners who are already redirecting compute heat into building heating systems and even agricultural greenhouse warming. That’s where the economics and environmental benefits make real sense,” Sobko said. “Instead of trying to move the heat physically, you move the compute closer to where that heat provides value,” he added.

Why skeptics say crypto home heating won’t work

There are plenty of skeptics.

Derek Mohr, clinical associate professor at the University of Rochester Simon School of Business, does not think the future of home heating lies in crypto and says even industrial crypto is problematic.

Bitcoin mining is so specialized now that a home computer, or even network of home computers, would have almost zero chance of being helpful in mining a block of bitcoin, according to Mohr, with mining farms use of specialized chips that are created to mine bitcoin much faster than a home computer.

“While bitcoin mining at home — and in networks of home computers — was a thing that had small success 10 years ago, it no longer is,” Mohr said.

“The bitcoin heat devices I have seen appear to be simple space heaters that use your own electricity to heat the room … which is not an efficient way to heat a house,” he said. “Yes, bitcoin mining generates a lot of heat, but the only way to get that to your house is to use your own electricity,” Mohr said.

He added that while running your computer non-stop would generate heat, it has a very low probability of successfully mining a bitcoin block.

“In my opinion, this is not a real opportunity that will work. Instead it is taking advantage of things people have heard of — excess heat from bitcoin mining and profits from mining — and is giving false hope that there is a way for an individual to benefit from this,” Mohr said.

But some experts say more widespread use of plug-and-play, free-standing mining rigs, might make the concept viable in more locations over time. In the least, they say it is worth studying the dual use economic and environmental benefits based on the underlying fact that crypto mining generates significant heat as a byproduct of the computer processing.

“How can we capture the excess heat from the operation to power something else? That could range from heating a home to warming water, even in a swimming pool. As a result, your operating efficiency is higher on your power consumption,” said Nikki Morris, the executive director of the Texas Christian University Ralph Lowe Energy Institute.

She says the concept of crypto heating is still in its earliest stages, and most people don’t yet understand how it works or what the broader implications could be. “That’s part of what makes it so interesting. At Texas Christian University, we see opportunities to help people build both the vocabulary and the business use feasibility with industry partners,” Morris said.

Because crypto mining produces a digital asset that can be traded, it introduces a new source of revenue from power consumption, and the power source could be anything from the grid to natural gas to solar to wind or battery generation, according to Morris. She cited charging an electric vehicle at mixed-use buildings or apartment complexes as an example.

“Picture a similar scenario where an apartment complex’s crypto mining setup produces both digital currency and usable heat energy. That opens the door to distributed energy innovation to a broader stakeholder base, an approach that could complement existing heating systems and renewable generation strategies,” Morris said.

There are many questions to explore, including efficiency at different scales, integration with other energy sources, regulatory considerations, and overall environmental impact, “but as these technologies evolve, it’s worth viewing crypto heating not just as a curiosity, but as a small window into how digital and physical energy systems might increasingly converge in the future,” Morris said.

Testing bitcoin heat in the real world

The crypto-heated future may be unfolding in the town of Challis, Idaho, where Cade Peterson’s company, Softwarm, is repurposing bitcoin heat to ward off the winter.

Several shops and businesses in town are experimenting with Softwarm’s rigs to mine and heat. At TC Car, Truck and RV Wash, Peterson says, the owner was spending $25 a day to heat his wash bays to melt snow and warm up the water.

“Traditional heaters would consume energy with no returns. They installed bitcoin miners and it produces more money in bitcoin than it costs to run,” Peterson said. Meanwhile, an industrial concrete company is offsetting its $1,000 a month bill to heat its 2,500-gallon water tank by heating it with bitcoin.

Peterson has heated his own home for two-and-a-half years using bitcoin mining equipment and believes that heat will power almost everything in the future. “You will go to Home Depot in a few years and buy a water heater with a data port on it and your water will be heated with bitcoin,” Peterson said. 

Continue Reading

Technology

These underperforming groups may deliver AI-electric appeal. Here’s why.

Published

on

By

These underperforming groups may deliver AI-electric appeal. Here's why.

Reshoring and infrastructure products could be the next ETF play after AI, say ETF experts

Industrial and infrastructure stocks may soon share the spotlight with the artificial intelligence trade.

According to ETF Action’s Mike Atkins, there’s a bullish setup taking shape due to both policy and consumer trends. His prediction comes during a volatile month for Big Tech and AI stocks.

“You’re seeing kind of the old-school infrastructure, industrial products that have not done as well over the years,” the firm’s founding partner told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “But there’s a big drive… kind of away from globalization into this reshoring concept, and I think that has legs.”

Global X CEO Ryan O’Connor is also optimistic because the groups support the AI boom. His firm runs the Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE), which tracks companies involved in construction and industrial projects.

“Infrastructure is something that’s near and dear to our heart based off of PAVE, which is our largest ETF in the market,” said O’Connor in the same interview. “We think some of these reshoring efforts that you can get through some of these infrastructure places are an interesting one.”

The Global X’s infrastructure exchange-traded fund is up 16% so far this year, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which includes AI bellwethers Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor and Broadcom, is up 42%, as of Friday’s close.

Both ETFs are lower so far this month — but Global X’s infrastructure ETF is performing better. Its top holdings, according to the firm’s website, are Howmet Aerospace, Quanta Services and Parker Hannifin.

Supporting the AI boom

He also sees electrification as a positive driver.

“All of the things that are going to be required for us to continue to support this AI boom, the electrification of the U.S. economy, is certainly one of them,” he said, noting the firm’s U.S. Electrification ETF (ZAP) gives investors exposure to them. The ETF is up almost 24% so far this year.

The Global X U.S. Electrification ETF is also performing a few percentage points better than the VanEck Semiconductor ETF for the month.

Disclaimer

Continue Reading

Trending