Vladimir Putin has offered his Wagner fighters three choices – but he can’t afford to lose them from the Ukraine war
President Putin is directing a major “damage limitation” exercise in Russia to re-impose his authority and purge those responsible for the potential coup attempt, following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s abortive “march for justice” towards the Russian capital last weekend.
But what of Prigozhin? Is he a dead man walking, or is his exile to Belarus simply an opportunity for Russia to bolster its military capability there?
Putin has control over Russian oligarchs since he has influence over the contracts upon which they rely for their wealth, thus creating a dependency culture and minimising the risks of any uprising. Prigozhin is a successful Russian oligarch who has exploited a close friendship with Putin to mutual benefit.
No wonder then that Putin was visibly angered that one of his trusted friends apparently mounted a coup attempt, describing it as a betrayal. Putin’s number one priority is maintaining his grip on power.
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Having been betrayed, most analysts would have expected Putin to exact revenge – very publicly – to deter any other challenges to his authority.
It appears that Prigozhin has been offered safe passage to exile in Belarus, is this an interim measure and is Prigozhin a “dead man walking”?
Notwithstanding Putin’s anger at Prigozhin’s apparent betrayal, Russia needs mercenary military support to deliver battlefield success in Ukraine.
The Wagner Group – with Prigozhin at the helm – seized Bakhmut to deliver a rare Russian military success, with Prigozhin claiming his fighters were the best army in the world.
Putin cannot afford to let his most seasoned and experienced fighters to simply walk away from the Ukraine war, so in the near term he has offered three choices to the Wagner mercenaries: join the Russian Army by 1 July (which risks a civil war as happened in Sudan recently); go home (and lose their experience and expertise); or join Prigozhin in Belarus (which cleanses the Russians of those loyal to Prigozhin).
Clearly, none of these choices maintains Russia’s mercenary capability.
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Vladimir Putin spoke to troops and members of the security services this week
However, once the dust has settled and having separated Prigozhin (and his acolytes) from the organisation, it is very likely that a re-branded and smaller mercenary group will rise from the ashes of Wagner, cleansed of the mutinous elements, and subordinate to the Russian MoD.
Whether Prigozhin will maintain control of his sprawling business empire, and his global mercenary group (outside Ukraine) is unclear, but having had his fingers burnt by Prigozhin, it seems very unlikely that Putin will trust him again.
Indeed, Kremlin-affiliated businessmen may already be acquiring Prigozhin’s domestic media empire, likely as part of an ongoing effort to destroy his reputation in Russia.
It also appears that the Russian presidential administration will have direct control over Prigozhin’s media assets.
Furthermore, although the offer of exile in Belarus might have strengthened President Lukashenko’s hand with Putin, Prigozhin’s presence in his country presents a significant long-term risk if accompanied by a significant number of battle-hardened Wagner fighters.
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How has Wagner impacted the war in Ukraine?
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Putin will not want to make Prigozhin a martyr, so he is probably safe for now. But once Putin has re-structured and rebranded the mercenary capability, isolated Prigozhin from his business empire, and reduced his influence and authority, Prigozhin’s future prospects might be rather more precarious. After all, Kremlin detractors have a nasty habit of falling out of high-rise hotel windows and meeting untimely ends.
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But Lukashenko must also be concerned – he has offered sanctuary to a dangerous animal, and if Prigozhin maintains even part of his mercenary empire in exile in Belarus, history might repeat itself and Lukashenko will be less well protected than Putin.
Prigozhin was a hugely influential and successful Russian oligarch; however, Putin is used to making sacrifices in his grand-strategic game of international chess, and Prigozhin has now become a disposable pawn that looks likely to be sacrificed to save the Putin King.
England have booked their place in the semi-finals of the Women’s Euros after knocking out Sweden.
The Lionesses won 3-2 on penalties at Stadion Letzigrund in Zurich, Switzerland, after clawing their way back to take the game into extra-time.
The defending champions had been 2-0 down at half-time after goals from Sweden’s Kosovare Asllani and Stina Blackstenius in the quarter-final clash.
England then levelled matters towards the end of normal time. Lucy Bronze delivered the first England goal on 79 minutes, assisted by substitute Chloe Kelly. Two minutes later, Michelle Agyemang followed suit, taking the score to 2-2.
England goalkeeper Hannah Hampton (R) celebrates with teammates after the side beat Sweden. Pic: AP
Bronze’s penalty kept England’s hopes alive. Pic: Reuters
After a goalless extra-time, it was time for penalties.
Alessia Russo kicked things off, finding the back of the net for England, before Lauren James, Alex Greenwood, Beth Mead and Grace Clinton had their attempts saved by Sweden’s Jennifer Falk.
The game was sent into sudden death after Falk went face-to-face with England’s Hannah Hampton but sent the ball flying over the crossbar.
Pic: Reuters
A devastated Sweden. Pic: Reuters
It all came down to Sweden’s seventh penalty after Bronze sensationally scored, with 18-year-old Smilla Holmberg missing the chance to send her team through.
England will next face Italy in the semi-finals in Geneva on Tuesday.
‘That was crazy’
England boss Sarina Wiegman described the action as “one of the hardest games I’ve ever watched”.
Sarina Wiegman after the match. Pic: Reuters
“We could have been out of the game three or four times, when you’re 2-0 at half-time it’s not good,” she said after the match.
“Although we started really bad, at the end it got better, but we didn’t create anything so we had to change shape, and we score two goals – that was crazy.
“We miss a lot [of penalties], and they miss even more. I need to decompress, I think.”
Hannah Hampton still delivered with one nostril down. Pic: Reuters
Goalkeeper Hampton added that it was “stressful watching” and “stressful playing”.
The 24-year-old, who was left with a bloodied nose in extra-time, said: “Every time I saved one, I was just thinking ‘please put it in, so we have a bit of a cushion!’
“To be honest, I think I was better in the game when I had one nostril than when I was completely fine!”
She said it was the support of the England fans that helped the team push on. She said: “They were definitely behind me and I appreciate all the support.”
Michelle Agyemang reacts after levelling the game for the Lionesses. Pic: Reuters
Pic: Reuters
Pressure was on the Lionesses after they won the tournament in 2022.
Their journey in the group stages started with a 2-1 defeat to France, but hopes were lifted after England sailed past the Netherlands and Wales to reach the knockout stages, finishing second in Group D.
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Sweden on the other hand went into Thursday’s game unbeaten in the tournament so far, having already defeated Germany, Poland and Denmark in the group stages.
By the time Hannah Hampton appeared in the news conference, the England goalkeeper was relieved, ecstatic and wanting to share this night far and wide.
So when her phone started ringing with a FaceTime call, she broke off speaking to the media about reaching the Euros semi-finals to answer it.
And then share the call with the room in Zurich.
After such a nerve-shredding night, this was the moment to relax and just savour it all.
Savour how close they came to throwing it all away against Sweden before staging a stirring comeback inspired by Lucy Bronze.
The 33-year-old scored the goal that began the fightback with 11 minutes to go and converted England’s final penalty in the shootout.
Lucy Bronze converted England’s final penalty. Pic: Reuters
“Lucy Bronze is one of a kind,” England manager Sarina Wiegman said. “It’s that resilience, that fight. I think the only way to get her off the pitch is in a wheelchair.”
The Lionesses looked down and out, 2-0 down after 25 minutes.
Completely outplayed. A defence run ragged. Just too sloppy.
“We said at half-time we don’t want to go home,” Hampton said. “So it’s up to us to turn the game around.”
Things were not looking good for England by half-time. Pic: Reuters
But the team managed to turn things around. Pic: Reuters
That only came after Wiegman deployed the substitutes the manager calls “finishers”.
They fulfilled their mission.
“Sweden in that moment had to adapt to some different things in the game,” Wiegman said, “before they could, it was 2-2.”
Within seconds of coming on, match-winner Chloe Kelly showed the missing spirit. The spirit that saw her score the Euro 2022 winner.
Pic: Reuters
A creator of two goals in 103 seconds.
A cross headed in with 11 minutes to go by Bronze – the only player still playing from the Euro 2013 group-stage elimination.
It was a lifeline seized on so quickly.
Another cross from Kelly was this time brought down by Beth Mead before Michelle Agyemang.
The timeliest of goals from the teen – a first tournament goal on her third appearance as a sub.
Teenager Michelle Agyemang reacts after scoring England’s second goal in normal time. Pic: Reuters
But there would be the anxiousness of extra time to follow, unable to find a breakthrough.
So to the shootout that lasted 14 penalties between them.
Hampton said: “It was stressful watching and playing, I thought every single time when I saved one, ‘Please score and give us a cushion’. I feel so happy and relieved.”
Around Alessia Russo and Kelly scoring there were four England misses before Bronze converted England’s seventh and Sweden missed a fifth.
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A frenzied 3-2 shootout win was complete.
“I can’t remember anything like this,” said Wiegman, who has only reached finals in her four tournaments with the Netherlands and England.
“I thought three times we were out,” she said.
But instead it’s off to Geneva for the European champions for a semi-final with Italy.
They’ll be hoping it’s less of a struggle, less dramatic – while just glad to have made it there.
Felix Baumgartner, the extreme athlete who once jumped from the edge of space, has died in a paragliding crash in Italy.
The 56-year-old Austrian lost control of his motorised paraglider while flying over Porto Sant’Elpidio in the central Marche region.
He then fell to the ground near the swimming pool of a hotel. The reasons for the accident were unclear.
According to reports, he fell ill and lost control.
Pic: AP
During the fall, he is thought to have hit a hotel employee, who was taken to hospital with neck injuries, according to Sky Sports Austria.
She was reportedly injured by a piece of debris that had been dislodged during the vehicle’s impact.
The mayor of Porto Sant’Elpidio, Massimiliano Ciarpella, offered the town’s condolences for the death of “a symbol of courage and passion for extreme flights”.
Mr Baumgartner is best known for smashing the world record for the highest skydive after leaping from the edge of space in October 2012.
He ascended to 128,097ft in a pressurised capsule suspended beneath a giant helium balloon.
He then jumped out, freefalling for four minutes and 19 seconds before opening his parachute.
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He made the historic jump over Roswell, New Mexico, reaching a peak speed of over 833mph (1,343kph).
Mr Baumgartner’s altitude record stood until 2014 when American computer scientist Alan Eustace did a jump from a height of 135,890ft.
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