Vladimir Putin has offered his Wagner fighters three choices – but he can’t afford to lose them from the Ukraine war
President Putin is directing a major “damage limitation” exercise in Russia to re-impose his authority and purge those responsible for the potential coup attempt, following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s abortive “march for justice” towards the Russian capital last weekend.
But what of Prigozhin? Is he a dead man walking, or is his exile to Belarus simply an opportunity for Russia to bolster its military capability there?
Putin has control over Russian oligarchs since he has influence over the contracts upon which they rely for their wealth, thus creating a dependency culture and minimising the risks of any uprising. Prigozhin is a successful Russian oligarch who has exploited a close friendship with Putin to mutual benefit.
No wonder then that Putin was visibly angered that one of his trusted friends apparently mounted a coup attempt, describing it as a betrayal. Putin’s number one priority is maintaining his grip on power.
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Having been betrayed, most analysts would have expected Putin to exact revenge – very publicly – to deter any other challenges to his authority.
It appears that Prigozhin has been offered safe passage to exile in Belarus, is this an interim measure and is Prigozhin a “dead man walking”?
Notwithstanding Putin’s anger at Prigozhin’s apparent betrayal, Russia needs mercenary military support to deliver battlefield success in Ukraine.
The Wagner Group – with Prigozhin at the helm – seized Bakhmut to deliver a rare Russian military success, with Prigozhin claiming his fighters were the best army in the world.
Putin cannot afford to let his most seasoned and experienced fighters to simply walk away from the Ukraine war, so in the near term he has offered three choices to the Wagner mercenaries: join the Russian Army by 1 July (which risks a civil war as happened in Sudan recently); go home (and lose their experience and expertise); or join Prigozhin in Belarus (which cleanses the Russians of those loyal to Prigozhin).
Clearly, none of these choices maintains Russia’s mercenary capability.
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Vladimir Putin spoke to troops and members of the security services this week
However, once the dust has settled and having separated Prigozhin (and his acolytes) from the organisation, it is very likely that a re-branded and smaller mercenary group will rise from the ashes of Wagner, cleansed of the mutinous elements, and subordinate to the Russian MoD.
Whether Prigozhin will maintain control of his sprawling business empire, and his global mercenary group (outside Ukraine) is unclear, but having had his fingers burnt by Prigozhin, it seems very unlikely that Putin will trust him again.
Indeed, Kremlin-affiliated businessmen may already be acquiring Prigozhin’s domestic media empire, likely as part of an ongoing effort to destroy his reputation in Russia.
It also appears that the Russian presidential administration will have direct control over Prigozhin’s media assets.
Furthermore, although the offer of exile in Belarus might have strengthened President Lukashenko’s hand with Putin, Prigozhin’s presence in his country presents a significant long-term risk if accompanied by a significant number of battle-hardened Wagner fighters.
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How has Wagner impacted the war in Ukraine?
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Putin will not want to make Prigozhin a martyr, so he is probably safe for now. But once Putin has re-structured and rebranded the mercenary capability, isolated Prigozhin from his business empire, and reduced his influence and authority, Prigozhin’s future prospects might be rather more precarious. After all, Kremlin detractors have a nasty habit of falling out of high-rise hotel windows and meeting untimely ends.
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But Lukashenko must also be concerned – he has offered sanctuary to a dangerous animal, and if Prigozhin maintains even part of his mercenary empire in exile in Belarus, history might repeat itself and Lukashenko will be less well protected than Putin.
Prigozhin was a hugely influential and successful Russian oligarch; however, Putin is used to making sacrifices in his grand-strategic game of international chess, and Prigozhin has now become a disposable pawn that looks likely to be sacrificed to save the Putin King.
Pro-democracy campaigner Jimmy Lai has been found guilty of national security offences in Hong Kong.
The media tycoon and British citizen, 78, was arrested in August 2020 after China imposed a national security law following massive anti-government protests in Hong Kong.
Sky News’ Asia correspondent Helen-Ann Smith, who is at West Kowloon Law Courts Building, said Mr Lai looked “drawn and thin” as he listened to the verdict being delivered.
He had previously been sentenced for several lesser offences during his five years in prison.
Mr Lai, who founded the now-defunct pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily, was charged with two counts of conspiracy to commit collusion with foreign forces to endanger national security, as well as one count of conspiracy to distribute seditious publications.
He has been found guilty of all three charges.
His trial, heard by three judges approved by the government without a jury present, has been closely monitored by the UK, the US, the European Union and political observers as a barometer of media freedom and judicial independence in the former British colony, which returned to Chinese rule in 1997.
Mr Lai has spent more than 1,800 days in solitary confinement. His family say his health has worsened as a result and that he suffers from diabetes, high blood pressure and heart palpitations.
In August, Mr Lai’s son, Sebastien, told Sky News that unless the British government (of which Mr Lai is a citizen) intervenes, his father “is most likely going to die in jail”.
Lai arriving at court in 2020. Pic: AP
Sebastien said his father’s death would not just be a personal tragedy, but a huge problem for both the Hong Kong authorities and Beijing’s government.
“You can’t tell the world you have the rule of law, the free press and all these values that are instrumental to a financial centre and still have my father in jail,” he told Sky News.
“And if he dies, that’s it, that’s a comma on Hong Kong as a financial centre.”
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A bystander hailed a hero after he tackled and disarmed one of the gunmen in the Bondi Beach shooting is a shop owner.
The man, named by a relative as 43-year-old Ahmed al Ahmed, was seen in a video running up to the attacker from behind and then grabbing the shotgun from his hands before pointing the weapon back at him.
The footage then showed the terrorist heading towards a bridge where another gunman was located, while the bystander placed the gun beside a tree.
Ahmed al Ahmed (in a white T-shirt) is seen in a video running up to a gunman from behind
Mr Ahmed then wrestles with the attacker
Live updates on Sydney shooting
Mr Ahmed, who was wearing a white T-shirt, was shot twice in the incident and was due to have surgery, his cousin, Mustafa, has revealed.
In a video on 7News, Mr Ahmed appeared to have a bloodied arm and hand, and was helped by other people near the scene in the Australian city.
At least 11 people were killed and 29 others injured in the attack when two gunmen opened fire from a bridge on crowds at a Jewish event around 6pm local time on Sunday evening.
More than 1,000 people had been at the gathering which was celebrating the festival of Hanukkah.
Mr Ahmed manages to get the gun off the terrorist
The bystander then points the weapon at the attacker who moves away towards a bridge
A gunman was killed and another was in a critical condition following the shooting.
One of the suspects was 24-year-old Naveed Akram.
His driver’s licence says he lives in Bonnyrigg, a suburb of Sydney. The identity of the other suspected attacker is not known.
Naveed Akram, 24, was one of the suspects
Mustafa said father-of-two Mr Ahmed, who owns a fruit shop in the Sydney suburb of Sutherland, did not have any experience with guns but was just walking past when he decided to step in.
He told 7News: “He’s in hospital and we don’t know exactly what’s going on inside.
“We do hope he will be fine. He’s a hero, 100%.”
Read more:
What we know about mass shooting
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One of the suspected gunmen has been named as 24-year-old Naveed Akram.
The footage of the bystander’s actions spread quickly on social media as people praised the man for his bravery, saying his actions had potentially saved many lives.
“Australian hero (random civilian) wrestles gun off attacker and disarms him. Some people are brave and then some people are… whatever this is,” one person said on X, sharing the video.
“This Australian man saved countless lives by stripping the gun off one of the terrorists at Bondi beach. HERO,” another said.
Chris Minns, the premier of New South Wales state, where Sydney is located, said it was the “most unbelievable scene I’ve ever seen”.
“A man walking up to a gunman who had fired on the community and single-handedly disarming him, putting his own life at risk to save the lives of countless other people.”
“That man is a genuine hero, and I’ve got no doubt that there are many, many people alive tonight as a result of his bravery,” he added.
The country’s prime minister Anthony Albanese praised the actions of Australians who had “run towards danger in order to help others”.
“These Australians are heroes and their bravery has saved lives,” he told a news conference.
Messages were sweeping across Sydney within minutes of the attack at Bondi Beach.
Parents messaged their children and teenagers, who had been enjoying a late afternoon swim at Bondi.
Witnesses said police were on the scene quickly, and the streets of Sydney’s eastern suburbs were full of police cars and ambulances on their way to Bondi.
Follow live: 11 people killed at event celebrating Hanukkah
When we arrived, there were still dozens of people processing what had happened, and everywhere – shock.
Witnesses told us that when the gunfire started some people took cover in the North Bondi Surf Life Saving Club. Once the threat was over, lifeguards helped the injured and used surfboards to carry them out.
Witnesses tell Sky’s Nicole Johnston of Bondi ‘warzone’
Some people were clearly traumatised and provided graphic detail of witnessing the shooting and seeing people killed in front of them.
A photographer, Danny, was covering the Jewish holiday event.
Read more: What we know so far
He said he “locked eyes” with one of the gunmen, who then fired towards him. Danny said he was grazed by a bullet. He kept filming during the shooting, while taking cover.
Sam, from France, was working at Bondi. He went to the scene of the attack and saw almost a dozen people lying on the ground covered in blood. Sam described it as like a “war zone”.
Rabbi Lei Wolff, from Central Synagogue in Sydney, went to Bondi as soon as he heard about the mass shooting. A dear friend of his, Rabbi Eli Schlanger, was killed in the attack.
Rabbi Wolff has called on people around the world to stand with Australia’s Jewish community against terrorism.
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