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President Putin is directing a major “damage limitation” exercise in Russia to re-impose his authority and purge those responsible for the potential coup attempt, following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s abortive “march for justice” towards the Russian capital last weekend.

But what of Prigozhin? Is he a dead man walking, or is his exile to Belarus simply an opportunity for Russia to bolster its military capability there?

Putin has control over Russian oligarchs since he has influence over the contracts upon which they rely for their wealth, thus creating a dependency culture and minimising the risks of any uprising. Prigozhin is a successful Russian oligarch who has exploited a close friendship with Putin to mutual benefit.

No wonder then that Putin was visibly angered that one of his trusted friends apparently mounted a coup attempt, describing it as a betrayal. Putin’s number one priority is maintaining his grip on power.

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Having been betrayed, most analysts would have expected Putin to exact revenge – very publicly – to deter any other challenges to his authority.

It appears that Prigozhin has been offered safe passage to exile in Belarus, is this an interim measure and is Prigozhin a “dead man walking”?

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Notwithstanding Putin’s anger at Prigozhin’s apparent betrayal, Russia needs mercenary military support to deliver battlefield success in Ukraine.

The Wagner Group – with Prigozhin at the helm – seized Bakhmut to deliver a rare Russian military success, with Prigozhin claiming his fighters were the best army in the world.

Putin cannot afford to let his most seasoned and experienced fighters to simply walk away from the Ukraine war, so in the near term he has offered three choices to the Wagner mercenaries: join the Russian Army by 1 July (which risks a civil war as happened in Sudan recently); go home (and lose their experience and expertise); or join Prigozhin in Belarus (which cleanses the Russians of those loyal to Prigozhin).

Clearly, none of these choices maintains Russia’s mercenary capability.

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Vladimir Putin spoke to troops and members of the security services this week

However, once the dust has settled and having separated Prigozhin (and his acolytes) from the organisation, it is very likely that a re-branded and smaller mercenary group will rise from the ashes of Wagner, cleansed of the mutinous elements, and subordinate to the Russian MoD.

Whether Prigozhin will maintain control of his sprawling business empire, and his global mercenary group (outside Ukraine) is unclear, but having had his fingers burnt by Prigozhin, it seems very unlikely that Putin will trust him again.

Indeed, Kremlin-affiliated businessmen may already be acquiring Prigozhin’s domestic media empire, likely as part of an ongoing effort to destroy his reputation in Russia.

It also appears that the Russian presidential administration will have direct control over Prigozhin’s media assets.

Furthermore, although the offer of exile in Belarus might have strengthened President Lukashenko’s hand with Putin, Prigozhin’s presence in his country presents a significant long-term risk if accompanied by a significant number of battle-hardened Wagner fighters.

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How has Wagner impacted the war in Ukraine?

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Putin will not want to make Prigozhin a martyr, so he is probably safe for now. But once Putin has re-structured and rebranded the mercenary capability, isolated Prigozhin from his business empire, and reduced his influence and authority, Prigozhin’s future prospects might be rather more precarious. After all, Kremlin detractors have a nasty habit of falling out of high-rise hotel windows and meeting untimely ends.

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But Lukashenko must also be concerned – he has offered sanctuary to a dangerous animal, and if Prigozhin maintains even part of his mercenary empire in exile in Belarus, history might repeat itself and Lukashenko will be less well protected than Putin.

Prigozhin was a hugely influential and successful Russian oligarch; however, Putin is used to making sacrifices in his grand-strategic game of international chess, and Prigozhin has now become a disposable pawn that looks likely to be sacrificed to save the Putin King.

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Twelve British soldiers injured in major traffic pile-up in Estonia – local media

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Twelve British soldiers injured in major traffic pile-up in Estonia - local media

Twelve British soldiers were injured in a major traffic pile-up in Estonia, close to the border with Russia, local media have reported.

Eight of the troops – part of a major NATO mission to deter Russian aggression – were airlifted back to the UK for hospital treatment on Sunday after the incident, which happened in snowy conditions on Friday, it is understood.

Five of these personnel have since been discharged with three still being kept in the military wing of the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Birmingham.

The crash happened at an intersection at around 5pm on Friday when the troops were travelling in three minibuses back to their base at Tapa.

Two civilian cars, driven by Estonians, are thought to have collided, triggering a chain reaction, with four other vehicles – comprising the three army Toyota minibuses and a third civilian car – piling into each other.

According to local media reports, the cars that initially collided were a Volvo S80, driven by a 37-year-old woman and a BMW 530D, driven by a 62-year-old woman.

The Estonian Postimees news site reported that 12 British soldiers were injured as well as five civilians. They were all taken to hospital by ambulance.

The British troops are serving in Estonia as part of Operation Cabrit, the UK’s contribution to NATO’s “enhanced forward presence” mission, which spans nations across the alliance’s eastern flank and is designed to deter attacks from Russia.

Around 900 British troops are deployed in Estonia, including a unit of Challenger 2 tanks.

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A spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence said: “Several British soldiers deployed on Operation CABRIT in Estonia were injured in a road traffic incident last Friday, 22nd November.

“Following hospital treatment in Estonia, eight personnel were flown back to the UK on an RAF C-17 for further treatment.

“Five have since been discharged and three are being cared for at the Royal Centre for Defence Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital Birmingham. We wish them all a speedy recovery.”

Defence Secretary John Healey said: “Following the road traffic incident involving British personnel in Estonia, my thoughts are with all those affected, and I wish those injured a full, swift recovery.

“Thanks to the Royal Centre for Defence Medicine at Queen Elizabeth Hospital Birmingham for their excellent care.”

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Egypt: Two Britons believed to be among 16 missing as tourist boat sinks after being ‘hit by large wave’

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Egypt: Two Britons believed to be among 16 missing as tourist boat sinks after being 'hit by large wave'

Two Britons are believed to be among more than a dozen people missing after a boat sank in the Red Sea off the Egyptian coast.

The yacht, called Sea Story, had 44 people on board, including 31 tourists of varying nationalities and 13 crew.

Authorities are searching for 16 people, including 12 foreign nationals and four Egyptians, the governor of the Red Sea region said, adding that 28 other people had been rescued.

Preliminary reports suggested a sudden large wave struck the vessel, capsizing it within about five minutes, governor Amr Hanafi said.

“Some passengers were in their cabins, which is why they were unable to escape,” he added in a statement.

Pic: STR/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

More than dozen missing after tourist boat sinks off Red Sea in Egypt, Marsa Alam - 25 Nov 2024
Survivors of the sinking boat rest at a harbor in Marsa Alam, Red Sea Governorate, in Egypt 25 Novermber 2024.
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Survivors rescued from the Sea Story in Marsa Alam. Pic: STR/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

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Passengers rescued from sunken tourist boat

The people who were rescued only suffered minor injuries such as bruises and scrapes with none needing hospital treatment.

A Foreign, Commonwealth and Development office spokesperson said: “We are providing consular support to a number of British nationals and their families following an incident in Egypt and are in contact with the local authorities.”

The foreign nationals aboard the 34-metre-long vessel, owned by an Egyptian national, included Americans, Belgians, British, Chinese, Finns, Germans, Irish, Poles, Slovakians, Spanish, and Swiss.

Sea Story had no technical problems, obtained all required permits before the trip, and was last checked for naval safety in March, according to officials.

The four-deck, wooden-hulled motor yacht was part of a multi-day diving trip when it went down near the coastal town of Marsa Alam following warnings about rough weather.

Egypt map

Officials said a distress call was received at 5.30am local time on Monday.

The boat had left Port Ghalib in Marsa Alam on Sunday and was scheduled to reach its destination of Hurghada Marina on 29 November.

The Sea Story was carrying 45 people according to a statement by the Red Sea Governorate.
Pic: Dive Pro Liveaboard
Image:
The Sea Story had 44 people on board. File pic: Dive Pro Liveaboard

Some survivors had been airlifted to safety on a helicopter, officials said.

The firm that operates the yacht, Dive Pro Liveaboard in Hurghada, said it has no information on the matter.

According to its maker’s website, the Sea Story was built in 2022.

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The incident comes after the Egyptian Meteorological Authority issued a warning on Saturday about turbulence and high waves on the Red Sea.

The organisation had advised against maritime activity for Sunday and Monday.

Some tourist companies have stopped or limited operations on the Red Sea due to the potential dangers from conflicts in the region.

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Prosecutors file to drop 2020 presidential election interference charges against Trump

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Prosecutors file to drop 2020 presidential election interference charges against Trump

A motion has been filed to drop the charges against Donald Trump of plotting to overturn the 2020 US presidential election result.

Mr Trump was first indicted on four felonies in August 2023: Conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and an attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights.

The president-elect pleaded not guilty to all charges and the case was then put on hold for months as Mr Trump’s team argued he could not be prosecuted.

U.S. Special Counsel Jack Smith looks on as he makes a statement to reporters after a grand jury returned an indictment of former U.S. President Donald Trump in the special counsel's investigation of efforts to overturn his 2020 election defeat, at Smith's offices in Washington, U.S. August 1, 2023. REUTERS/Kevin Wurm TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
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Special Counsel Jack Smith. Pic: Reuters

Donald Trump supporters storm the US Capitol
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Donald Trump supporters storm the US Capitol

On Monday, prosecutors working with special counsel Jack Smith, who had led the investigation, asked a federal judge to dismiss the case over long-standing US justice department policy, dating back to the 1970s, that presidents cannot be prosecuted while in office.

It marks the end of the department’s landmark effort to hold Mr Trump accountable for the attack on the US Capitol on 6 January 2021 when thousands of Trump supporters assaulted police, broke through barricades, and swarmed the Capitol in a bid to prevent the US Congress from certifying Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory.

Trump plays blinder as accusers forced to turn blind eye over Capitol riots

In winning the White House, he avoids the so-called ‘big house’.

Whether or not prison was a prospect awaiting Donald Trump is a moot point now, as he now enjoys the protection of the presidency.

The delay strategy that he pursued through a grinding court process knocked his federal prosecution past the election date and when his numbers came up, he wasn’t going down.

Politically, and legally, he has played a blinder.

Read more analysis from James Matthews here

Mr Smith’s team had been assessing how to wind down both the election interference case and the separate classified documents case in the wake of Mr Trump’s election victory over vice president Kamala Harris earlier this month, effectively killing any chance of success for the case.

In court papers, prosecutors said “the [US] Constitution requires that this case be dismissed before the defendant is inaugurated”.

They said the ban [on prosecuting sitting presidents] “is categorical and does not turn on the gravity of the crimes charged, the strength of the government’s proof, or the merits of the prosecution, which the government stands fully behind”.

Mr Trump, who has said he would sack Mr Smith as soon as he takes office in January, and promised to pardon some convicted rioters, has long dismissed both the 2020 election interference case and the separate classified documents case as politically motivated.

Trump supporters try to break through a police barrier at the Capitol in Washington
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Trump supporters try to break through a police barrier at the Capitol in Washington. Pic: AP

He was accused of illegally keeping classified papers after leaving office in 2021, some of which were allegedly found in his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida.

The election interference case stalled after the US Supreme Court ruled in July that former presidents have broad immunity from prosecution, which Mr Trump’s lawyers exploited to demand the charges against him be dismissed.

Mr Smith’s request to drop the case still needs to be approved by US District Judge Tanya Chutkan.

No date had been set for a trial.

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At least 1,500 cases have been brought against those accused of trying to overthrow the election result on 6 January 2021, resulting in more than 1,100 convictions, the Associated Press said.

More than 950 defendants have been sentenced and 600 of them jailed for terms ranging from a few days to 22 years.

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