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President Putin is directing a major “damage limitation” exercise in Russia to re-impose his authority and purge those responsible for the potential coup attempt, following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s abortive “march for justice” towards the Russian capital last weekend.

But what of Prigozhin? Is he a dead man walking, or is his exile to Belarus simply an opportunity for Russia to bolster its military capability there?

Putin has control over Russian oligarchs since he has influence over the contracts upon which they rely for their wealth, thus creating a dependency culture and minimising the risks of any uprising. Prigozhin is a successful Russian oligarch who has exploited a close friendship with Putin to mutual benefit.

No wonder then that Putin was visibly angered that one of his trusted friends apparently mounted a coup attempt, describing it as a betrayal. Putin’s number one priority is maintaining his grip on power.

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Having been betrayed, most analysts would have expected Putin to exact revenge – very publicly – to deter any other challenges to his authority.

It appears that Prigozhin has been offered safe passage to exile in Belarus, is this an interim measure and is Prigozhin a “dead man walking”?

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Notwithstanding Putin’s anger at Prigozhin’s apparent betrayal, Russia needs mercenary military support to deliver battlefield success in Ukraine.

The Wagner Group – with Prigozhin at the helm – seized Bakhmut to deliver a rare Russian military success, with Prigozhin claiming his fighters were the best army in the world.

Putin cannot afford to let his most seasoned and experienced fighters to simply walk away from the Ukraine war, so in the near term he has offered three choices to the Wagner mercenaries: join the Russian Army by 1 July (which risks a civil war as happened in Sudan recently); go home (and lose their experience and expertise); or join Prigozhin in Belarus (which cleanses the Russians of those loyal to Prigozhin).

Clearly, none of these choices maintains Russia’s mercenary capability.

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Vladimir Putin spoke to troops and members of the security services this week

However, once the dust has settled and having separated Prigozhin (and his acolytes) from the organisation, it is very likely that a re-branded and smaller mercenary group will rise from the ashes of Wagner, cleansed of the mutinous elements, and subordinate to the Russian MoD.

Whether Prigozhin will maintain control of his sprawling business empire, and his global mercenary group (outside Ukraine) is unclear, but having had his fingers burnt by Prigozhin, it seems very unlikely that Putin will trust him again.

Indeed, Kremlin-affiliated businessmen may already be acquiring Prigozhin’s domestic media empire, likely as part of an ongoing effort to destroy his reputation in Russia.

It also appears that the Russian presidential administration will have direct control over Prigozhin’s media assets.

Furthermore, although the offer of exile in Belarus might have strengthened President Lukashenko’s hand with Putin, Prigozhin’s presence in his country presents a significant long-term risk if accompanied by a significant number of battle-hardened Wagner fighters.

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How has Wagner impacted the war in Ukraine?

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Putin will not want to make Prigozhin a martyr, so he is probably safe for now. But once Putin has re-structured and rebranded the mercenary capability, isolated Prigozhin from his business empire, and reduced his influence and authority, Prigozhin’s future prospects might be rather more precarious. After all, Kremlin detractors have a nasty habit of falling out of high-rise hotel windows and meeting untimely ends.

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But Lukashenko must also be concerned – he has offered sanctuary to a dangerous animal, and if Prigozhin maintains even part of his mercenary empire in exile in Belarus, history might repeat itself and Lukashenko will be less well protected than Putin.

Prigozhin was a hugely influential and successful Russian oligarch; however, Putin is used to making sacrifices in his grand-strategic game of international chess, and Prigozhin has now become a disposable pawn that looks likely to be sacrificed to save the Putin King.

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Migrants locked up in notorious El Salvador jail released in Venezuela-US prisoner swap

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Migrants locked up in notorious El Salvador jail released in Venezuela-US prisoner swap

On Friday, Paola Paiva waited in a hotel near Caracas airport, nervous but giddy with excitement to be reunited with her brother, finally.

For five months, Arturo Suarez has been detained in a notorious prison in El Salvador.

“I am going to wait for my brother to call me,” she told Sky News, “and after giving him a hug, I want to just listen to him, listen to his voice. Let him talk and tell us his story.”

Suarez was one of the more than 250 Venezuelan migrants who had been living in America but were arrested in immigration raids by the Trump administration and sent to El Salvador, a showpiece act in the president’s promise to deport millions of migrants.

Paola Paiva holds a vigil for brother Arturo Suarez. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Paola Paiva holds a vigil for brother Arturo Suarez. Pic: Reuters

Most of the men had never even been to El Salvador before. Their detention has been controversial because the White House claims the men are all part of the dangerous Tren de Aragua gang but has provided little evidence to support this assertion.

The only evidence Paola had that Suarez was still alive was a picture of him published on a news website showing the inside of the maximum security CECOT jail.

He is one of dozens of men with their hands and feet cuffed, heads shaved and bodies shackled together.

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Now he is returning to his home country, one of the bargaining chips in a deal that saw the release of ten Americans and US permanent residents who had been seized by the Venezuelan authorities.

Venezuelans arrive back in home country after being detained in El Salvador
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Venezuelans arrive back in home country after being detained in El Salvador

Paola had tried to go to the airport to greet her brother as he disembarked a charter plane bringing the men back from El Salvador but authorities told her to wait at a nearby hotel.

“They told us they are taking them all to a hotel to rest,” she said.

“But I managed to get someone to give my phone number on a piece of paper to my brother, so I am expecting his call tomorrow, as soon as he can access a phone.

“We heard they are going to perform some medical exams on them and check their criminal records,” she added. “I’m not afraid; I’m not worried since my brother has a clean record.

“I am so happy. I knew this day would happen, and that it would be unexpected, that no one was going to notify us. I knew it was going to be a total surprise.”

US citizens released from Venezuela. Pic: Reuters
Image:
US citizens released from Venezuela. Pic: Reuters

The Trump administration had paid the El Salvador government, led by President Nayib Bukele, millions of dollars to imprison the men.

Homeland security secretary Kristi Noem visited CECOT last month, posing in front of prisoners for a photo opportunity.

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But Cristosal, an international human rights group based in El Salvador, says it has “documented systematic physical beatings, torture, intentional denial of access to food, water, clothing, health care,” inside the prison.

A video which was seemingly filmed aboard the charter flight bringing the Venezuelan migrants back to Caracas shows Arturo briefly talking about his experience inside.

He looks physically well but speaks into the camera and says: “We were four months with no communication, no phone calls, kidnapped, we didn’t know what (the) day was, not even the time.

“We were beat up at breakfast, lunch and dinner,” he continues.

Sky News interviewed Arturo Suarez‘s brother Nelson near his home in the US in April, weeks after Arturo – an aspiring singer – had been arrested by immigration and customs enforcement (ICE) agents while filming a music video inside a house.

Nelson said he believed Arturo’s only crime was “being Venezuelan and having tattoos.” He showed me documents that indicate Arturo has no criminal record in Venezuela, Chile, Colombia or the United States, the four countries he has lived in.

Now Nelson is delighted Arturo is being released – but worries for his future.

“The only thing that casts a shadow in such a moment of joy is that bit of anger when I think that all the governments involved are going to use my brother’s story, and the others on that flight, as political gain,” he said.

“Each of them will tell a different story, making themselves the heroes, when the reality is that many innocent people suffered unfairly and unnecessarily, and many families will remain separated after this incident due to politics, immigration and fear.”

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Ha Long Bay: At least 34 dead after tourist boat capsizes in Vietnam

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Ha Long Bay: At least 34 dead after tourist boat capsizes in Vietnam

At least 34 people have died after a tourist boat capsized in Vietnam, according to state media reports.

The Wonder Sea boat was reportedly carrying 53 people, including five crew members, when it capsized due to strong winds in Ha Long Bay on Saturday.

It happened at roughly 2pm local time (7am GMT). Rescue teams have found 11 survivors and recovered 34 bodies, eight of them children, the state-run Vietnam News Agency said, citing local authorities.

People on a capsized tourist boat being rescued in Ha Long Bay, Vietnam. Pic: QDND via AP
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Rescuer in Ha Long Bay are searching for survivors. Pic: QDND via AP

The People’s Army Newspaper, which cited local border guards, said authorities have not yet confirmed details about the tourists, including their nationalities, as the rescue operation continues.

Most of the passengers were tourists, including about 20 children, from the country’s capital city, Hanoi, the newspaper said.

The incident comes shortly after the arrival of Storm Wipha in the South China Sea, bringing strong winds, heavy rain and lightning to the area.

A body being carried on stretcher after a tourist boat capsized in Ha Long Bay, Vietnam. Pic: QDND via AP
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A body being carried on stretcher after a tourist boat capsized in Ha Long Bay, Vietnam. Pic: QDND via AP

The named storm is the third typhoon to hit the South China Sea this year, and is expected to make landfall along the northern coast of Vietnam early next week.

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Disruptions linked to the storm have also had an impact on air travel, according to Noi Bai Airport.

The airport reported that nine incoming flights were diverted to other airports, while three outgoing flights were temporarily grounded due to adverse weather conditions.

Tourist boats cruise in Halong Bay. File pic: Reuters
Image:
Tourist boats cruise in Halong Bay. File pic: Reuters

The winds brought by Storm Wipha reached up to 63mph (101kmph) and gusts of up to 68mph (126kmph) as it passed south of Taiwan on Saturday, according to the island’s Central News Agency.

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Ha Long Bay is around 125mi (200km) north east of Hanoi and attracts tens of thousands of visitors each year.

Of those who visit Ha Long Bay, many choose to take overnight boat tours to further explore the area.

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Gaza: More than 30 people killed ‘as Israeli troops open fire towards Palestinians waiting for aid’

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Gaza: More than 30 people killed 'as Israeli troops open fire towards Palestinians waiting for aid'

More than 30 people have been killed after Israeli troops opened fire towards crowds of Palestinians waiting for aid, according to witnesses and hospital officials.

The deaths occurred near distribution hubs operated by the US-Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which began distributing food packages in Gaza at the end of May, after Israel eased its 11-week blockade of aid into the territory.

At least 32 people were killed on Saturday, according to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry, while a further 100 people were injured, according to local reports.

Most of the deaths came as Palestinians massed in the Teina area, around 3km (2 miles) away from a GHF aid distribution centre east of the city of Khan Younis.

More than 3o killed near aid distribution centres. Pic:Mariam Dagga/AP
Image:
More than 30 people killed near aid distribution centres. Pic: Mariam Dagga/AP

Mahmoud Mokeimar said he was walking with crowds of people – mostly young men – towards the food hub when troops fired warning shots as the crowd advanced, before opening fire towards the marching people.

“It was a massacre… the occupation opened fire at us indiscriminately,” he said.

Injured Palestinians are brought to Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis. Pic: Mariam Dagga/AP
Image:
Injured Palestinians are brought to Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis. Pic: Mariam Dagga/AP

Akram Aker said troops fired machine guns mounted on tanks and drones.

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“They encircled us and started firing directly at us,” he said.

The Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis said it received 25 bodies, along with dozens of wounded.

Seven other people, including one woman, were killed in the Shakoush area, hundreds of yards north of another GHF hub in Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah, the hospital said.

The army and GHF did not immediately comment on Saturday’s violence.

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The GFH, which has four distribution centres, three of which are in the southern Gaza Strip, says it has distributed millions of meals to hungry Palestinians.

But local health officials and witnesses say hundreds of people have been killed by Israeli army fire as they try to reach the distribution hubs.

The GHF, which employs private armed guards, says there have been no deadly shootings at its sites, though this week, 20 people were killed at one of its locations, most of them in a stampede.

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The group accused Hamas agitators of causing a panic, but gave no evidence to back the claim.

The army, which is not at the sites but secures them from a distance, says it only fires warning shots if crowds get too close to its forces.

The 21-month war in Gaza was triggered when Hamas militants stormed into southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 others hostage.

An Israeli military offensive has killed more than 58,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza health ministry, while Gaza’s more than two million Palestinians are living through a catastrophic humanitarian crisis.

Israel and Hamas have been holding ceasefire talks in Qatar in recent weeks, but international mediators say there have been no breakthroughs.

US President Donald Trump said another 10 hostages will be released from Gaza shortly, without providing details.

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