Connect with us

Published

2 years ago

on

A significant share of older Americans underestimate how long their retirement is going to last: i.e., how long they are going to live. 

Most people know that the average American lives to an age between 75 and 80. Less well known, apparently, is that life expectancy rises with age. At age 60, an American man can expect to reach 82; a woman, 85. 

That knowledge is called longevity literacy, and many of us don’t have it. In a 2022 survey by the insurer TIAA, one-quarter of Americans underestimated the life expectancy of a 60-year-old. Another 28 percent said they didn’t know it. 

Even among baby boomers, the youngest of whom are nearing 60, more than two-fifths of survey respondents either guessed low on longevity or punted on the question. 

“We were kind of shocked to get the data,” said Surya Kolluri, the head of TIAA Institute, which produced the report. 

Kolluri said he was particularly dismayed over the large share of respondents who could not answer the longevity question, which was multiple choice.  

“We gave them the answer and they still said, ‘Eh, I don’t know,’” he said. 

Confusion over human lifespan complicates the business of planning for retirement, a phase of life for which many Americans are already underprepared. 

More than two-fifths of baby boomers have no retirement savings, even as the postwar generation enters retirement years, census data show.  

The median boomer household held $134,000 in retirement savings in 2019, according to a NerdWallet analysis. 

By most accounts, even that figure is not nearly enough. Human longevity doesn’t stop rising at 60. An American who retires at 65 can expect to live to 85, according to Social Security projections.  

“We don’t know why people are so off in their expectations,” said Gal Wettstein, a senior research economist at Boston College. “I think there is some evidence that people don’t account for the fact that they’ve already lived to a certain age when they try to guess how long they might live.” 

The biggest financial risk facing retirees is “outliving your savings,” Wettstein said, citing research from the school’s Center for Retirement Research. 

That fact, too, is lost on many Americans. People approaching retirement wrongly assume that stock market volatility is their biggest financial peril, Wettstein said. In fact, the far greater risk is “living so long that your money runs out.” 

Increasing lifespans ranks as one of the great human advances of the past century. An American born in 1900 could expect to reach 47. By 1950, life expectancy had risen to 68. U.S. lifespan peaked at 79 in 2019, then dropped during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The longevity bonus has become more pronounced over time, as we outlive various perils that killed our forebears. A Stanford researcher examined people who live past 65 in developed countries and found that human lifespans increase by three years with every generation.  

But such nuances are lost on many people outside the scholarly community.  

Researchers at the Employee Benefit Research Institute have repeatedly surveyed Americans of all ages about longevity and found consistent befuddlement. 

“One of the consistent things is that there were 20 percent of people who don’t know, who couldn’t give an answer,” said Craig Copeland, director of wealth benefits research at the institute. “So, you’re starting out with one-fifth of people with no idea of how long they were going to live.” 

Retirees fared somewhat better on survey questions about longevity. In 2022, Copeland said, more than half of retired persons demonstrated knowledge that an American at 65 can expect to live 20 more years. Even in this group, however, one-fifth of respondents didn’t answer the question. 

Boston College researchers have found that many working-age Americans are “pessimistic about how long they are going to live,” and underestimate their own expected longevity, Wettstein said.  

Even people in their 50s and 60s “tend to think they’re not going to live very long, or not as long as the life expectancy of a person their age,” he said. “Where that kind of flips is in people’s 70s, which is late for making decisions about retirement.”  

Women show much greater longevity literacy than men. In the TIAA survey, 43 percent of women answered the lifespan question correctly, compared to 32 percent of men. 

“That concerns me,” Kolluri said of the male respondents, “because what it implies to me is that they’re incurring longevity risk, that they will outlive their money.” 

People with greater literacy about human lifespans are more likely to save for retirement, Kolluri said. They are also more likely to have calculated how much money they will need. And they are more likely to be satisfied in retirement. 

Lack of longevity literacy leaves many Americans unprepared to finance retirement. There are other factors. 

Millions of Americans count on Social Security to see them through retirement. But monthly Social Security checks to retired workers average around $1,800, much less than the typical family spends in retirement.  

Prior generations of retirees tapped employer-funded pensions. That income source has gradually given way to employer-sponsored retirement plans.  

Yet, according to an AARP analysis, nearly half of Americans have no access to retirement plans at work, especially at smaller firms with fewer employees.   

Workers who do save for retirement often don’t save enough. In the latest Retirement Confidence Survey from the Employee Benefit Research Institute, only 64 percent of workers voiced confidence that they would have enough money to live comfortably through their retirement years.  

Another measure, Boston College’s National Retirement Risk Index, finds that roughly half of working-age American households are at risk of being financially unprepared for retirement.  

Just as worrisome, perhaps, only about one-third of households are aware that they are unprepared.  

Many families overestimate how much money they have on hand for retirement and underestimate how much more they will need. Homeowners often focus too much on the rising value of their home, and too little on how much they owe on the mortgage. Workers with retirement accounts may underestimate how far those funds will go. A $100,000 retirement nest egg translates to only about $600 in monthly retirement income. Too often, researchers say, a household has two wage earners but only one partner actively saving for retirement.  

Outliving one’s retirement savings is only the largest among several risks Americans face when entering retirement. Another is covering the costs of long-term care.  

More than half of Americans entering retirement today will eventually require “long-term services and supports,” at an average cost of $120,900, according to federal research.  

“A semi-private room in a nursing home is about $100,000 a year, and that is a lot of money,” Wettstein said. “No doubt, for a lot of people, that would run through their savings very quickly.”  UPS reaches deal that lowers chances of nationwide Teamsters strike Teamsters say strike still on the table at UPS

A recent analysis by the National Council on Aging found that 80 percent of people over 60 lack the financial resources to cover long-term care. 

“You have this idea that Medicare will cover some of those costs, whereas in fact Medicare doesn’t generally cover most of those costs,” said Genevieve Waterman, director of economic and financial security at the National Council on Aging. 

Worried about financing retirement? The National Council on Aging offers an Age Well Planner, and many investment sites feature retirement income calculators.  

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

World

India and Pakistan were close to miscalculation either side couldn’t afford

Published

58 mins ago

on

May 10, 2025

By

India and Pakistan were close to miscalculation either side couldn't afford

Both India and Pakistan claimed they didn’t want all-out war, or for things to escalate.

But given that those statements came within hours of airstrikes from either side, it’s easy to understand why the world was sceptical.

Fast forward just a few hours though and a ceasefire has been agreed – with the help of the US, who brokered talks and even announced the deal.

India-Pakistan live: Latest updates as ceasefire agreed

The agreement has sparked celebrations in Pakistan, with people in many cities, including Lahore, taking to the streets. Chants of “Pakistan Zindabad” – “Long Live Pakistan” in English – are ringing out.

But the deal doesn’t undo the events of the past two weeks, which will continue to weigh heavily on the minds of many here.

The military action has been the most significant between the countries in decades and dozens have died on both sides.

More on India

Related Topics:

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Pakistan fires missiles at India

Just this morning, Pakistan inflicted some serious damage to India’s military sites and New Delhi did not waste time responding with further strikes.

It was a reminder, for many, of the uncertainty of the situation between India and Pakistan.

Read more:
How India and Pakistan’s militaries match up
The story of India and Pakistan’s deadly conflict

A house damaged in overnight Indian shelling, in Shah Kot, in Neelum Vallery. Pic: AP/M.D. Mughal
Image:
A house damaged in Indian shelling, in Shah Kot, in Neelum Vallery. Pic: AP/M.D. Mughal

Representatives from each country will speak again on Monday and even with the strikes halted, for now, the next 48 hours will be a very testing moment.

Both sides have often shown striking strategic restraint. And in the past fortnight, neither has launched a full-scale attack.

But their enmity has been enduring, and even with the agreement in place, it feels a bit complacent to assume India and Pakistan will just walk back from the brink.

Continue Reading

Sports

Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Can the Golden Knights rally from down 2-0?

Published

1 hour ago

on

May 10, 2025

By

Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Can the Golden Knights rally from down 2-0?

May 10, 2025, 08:00 AM ET

The second-round series of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have entered the “venue change” stage, where the previous visitors are now playing host.

The Carolina Hurricanes headed back to the Lenovo Center with a 1-1 series against the Washington Capitals, and they’ll pick up hostilities at 6 p.m. ET Saturday. The Edmonton Oilers traveled back to Rogers Place holding a 2-0 lead over the Vegas Golden Knights; Game 3 of that series is 9 p.m. ET Saturday.

What will the series tally be in Caps-Canes when it heads back to D.C. — and will the Knights win at least one in Alberta so they even see a Game 5 back in Las Vegas?

Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a recap of what went down in Friday’s games and the three stars of Friday from Arda Öcal.

Matchup notes

Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes
Game 3 | 6 p.m. ET | TNT

With the Canes and Capitals tied up 1-1 heading to Raleigh for Games 3 and 4, ESPN BET has Carolina as the -215 series favorite. Washington is +180 to win the series.

Capitals defenseman John Carlson scored a power-play goal in Game 2, his 13th career playoff power-play goal, which breaks a tie with Brian Leetch for third for such goals by an American-born defenseman. He still trails Chris Chelios (14) and Brian Rafalski (17).

For the first time in his postseason career, Tom Wilson reached all of these thresholds: 2 points, 3 shots on goal, 2 hits and 2 blocked shots. His seven points this season is the most he has had in a playoff run since the Cup-winning year of 2018 (15).

The Hurricanes have not held an in-game lead since Game 4 of the first round against the Devils. They won the series in Game 5 in a double-overtime game, then won Game 1 of this series 2-1 in OT after trailing 1-0. Since that lead in Game 4 of the first round, they have trailed for 89:28 and been tied for 117:55.

Among qualified goaltenders this postseason, Frederik Andersen leads by a wide margin in goals-against average (1.55), and is second in save percentage, at .930. The netminder ahead of him in SV%? Washington’s Logan Thompson.

Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers
Game 3 | 9 p.m. ET | TNT

Following two wins by the Oilers in Vegas, ESPN BET now lists Edmonton as the -550 favorites to win this series, with the Golden Knights at +380. Edmonton is also the current favorite to win the Cup, at +300, narrowly ahead of the Stars, at +325. Vegas is now +1800, the longest odds of any team remaining in the playoffs.

Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid combined to score the game-winning OT goal in Game 2. It was the second OT goal this postseason for Draisaitl, and he is now tied for the most such goals in a single postseason in Oilers history with Esa Tikkanen in 1991.

McDavid is second among playoff scorers with 14 points through eight games, trailing only Mikko Rantanen‘s 15. McDavid’s 1.75 points per game this postseason is ahead of his rate in playoff seasons past (1.58) and well ahead of his rate during last year’s run to the Stanley Cup Final (1.36).

Victor Olofsson had two goals and an assist in a losing effort in Game 2. Both goals were on the power play, and he joins Jack Eichel as the only players in Knights history with multiple power-play goals in a single playoff game.

Speaking of Eichel, he finished with three assists, joining Shea Theodore and William Karlsson as the only players in Knights history with two three-assist playoff games on their résumé.

Öcal’s three stars from Friday

After a rough first round against the Blues, Hellebuyck shut out the Stars in Game 2. He made 21 saves en route to the fourth clean sheet of his postseason career.

Ehlers had his second career multigoal game and added an assist in a big Game 2 effort that tied Winnipeg’s series with Dallas 1-1.

The former Bruin continues to haunt the Maple Leafs, this time with the overtime winner to get the Panthers on the series board at 2-1. It was his fourth career playoff OT goal, and he extended his own NHL record for most consecutive postseasons with a game-winning goal (nine).

Friday’s recaps

Florida Panthers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
TOR leads 2-1 | Game 4 Sunday

Toronto entered with a 2-0 series lead and got out to a 2-0 start in the game as well, with goals from Matthew Knies and John Tavares, before Aleksander Barkov drew the Panthers back to within a goal with his third goal of the postseason. Tavares added a power-play tally at 2:52 of the second period on a slick deflection, before the Panthers ripped off two goals in quick succession to tie the score. The first was thanks to Sam Reinhart poking the puck in during a wild scramble in the Leafs’ crease, the second after a superb pass from Sam Bennett to Carter Verhaeghe. Jonah Gadjovich put the home squad up 4-3, but Morgan Rielly tied things up midway through the third. It took until the final five minutes of the first OT, but Brad Marchand came through with another game-winning goal. Full recap.

play

1:30

Brad Marchand’s OT winner sparks pandemonium from Panthers crowd

Brad Marchand scores a massive overtime goal to deliver the Panthers a 5-4 win over the Maple Leafs.

Winnipeg Jets 4, Dallas Stars 0
Series tied 1-1 | Game 3 Sunday

If this is the kind of goaltending the Jets will now get from Connor Hellebuyck, the Stars (and the rest of the NHL) are in trouble. Hellebuyck stopped all 21 shots sent on the Jets’ goal en route to his fourth career postseason shutout. On the offensive side, Gabriel Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers got the party started in the first. Adam Lowry added his fourth goal of the postseason in the second, and that 3-0 lead stood until 16:20 of the third, when Ehlers capped off the festivities with an empty-net goal. Full recap.

play

0:26

Nikolaj Ehlers rolls in an empty-net goal for Winnipeg

Nikolaj Ehlers scores his second goal of the game to pad the Jets’ lead late in the third period vs. the Stars.

Continue Reading

Sports

Leafs’ Stolarz progressing but not close to return

Published

2 hours ago

on

May 10, 2025

By

Leafs' Stolarz progressing but not close to return

  • Kristen ShiltonMay 10, 2025, 12:21 PM ET

    Close

      Kristen Shilton is a national NHL reporter for ESPN.

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Maple Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz continues to work his way back but doesn’t appear close to a return in Toronto’s second-round Eastern Conference playoff series against the Florida Panthers.

“He’s progressing in the right direction,” Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube said Saturday. “But he has not skated yet [since getting hurt].”

Stolarz was injured during Game 1 on Monday. The goaltender took a puck off his mask and an elbow to the head from Panthers forward Sam Bennett in the second period, exiting shortly after the Bennett hit. Stolarz, who was ill on Toronto’s bench before he left the game, was later transported to a hospital for evaluation.

The veteran was able to rejoin his teammates Tuesday at their facility but did not travel with the Maple Leafs to Florida ahead of Friday’s Game 3.

Joseph Woll took over the starting duties from Stolarz and helped stake Toronto to a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series. But Woll struggled in Game 3, recording an .861 save percentage as the Panthers mounted two multigoal comebacks to down the Maple Leafs 5-4 in overtime.

Berube said after the loss that he “thought [Woll] was really good” but that he didn’t love when Panthers fourth-liner Jonah Gadjovich beat the goaltender cleanly from outside the right faceoff circle to give Florida its first lead of the game at 4-3.

Woll also has been adjusting to playing the puck amid Florida’s smothering forecheck.

“They rim a lot of pucks,” Woll said Friday. “I’m just trying to do my best to help us break out.”

Florida hasn’t made it easy on Toronto in that respect. Berube anticipates Woll can learn from Friday’s mistakes and improve, though.

“It’s difficult,” Berube said. “A lot of those rims are up; they’re not on the ice. And that’s designed. If they can get a good lick on it, they’re going to get it on the glass. It’s pretty tough for him to come out and play those. He did get to a lot of them. But they’re coming hard. He’s going to have to move it quick.”

Game 4 of the series is set for Sunday.

Continue Reading

Trending