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Do you want to believe that New York City is in an urban doom cycle?

Its easy if you just ignore indisputable facts.

Take major crimes, an NYPD metric thats distorted upward by skyrocketing auto theft even as the crimes we fear most murder, shootings, and rape continue to ebb lower from last years totals.

Surprise! Murders are on track to be 40% fewer this year than they were in crime-busting Rudy Giulianis last two years as mayor when they were 673 and 649 respectively.

At the midpoint of 2023, weve had 193 murders, on track for a total of around 400 down from 488 in 2021 and 438 in 2022.

Ah, but there were only 319 murders in 2019!

True, but nobody foresaw the end of the world in 2010 when murders jumped to 536 over 471 in 2009 even though then-Mayor Michael Bloombergs stop-and-frisk was in full force.

As the late, great Yankees skipper Casey Stengel often said, you can look it up.

Misperceptions of crime do have a rational basis, though: an ever-increasing street disorder that might not kill but threatens us in other ways lawless cyclists, open-air drug use, unchecked shoplifting, and raving maniacs who might or might not come at us with knives.

The sense of a city sprung and lurching, beyond the governments will or ability to rein in, creates a mood where actual violent crime may seem more prevalent than it is.

But the supposed inevitability of urban collapse due to remote work another article of faith among New Yorks dark prophets has no visible basis other than suspect computer models. 

Never mind that sidewalks are packed, subway riderships up and apartments are in more demand than ever were doomed!

A recent, endlessly cited paper titled Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse by three learned scholars Arpit Gupta of NYU and Vrinda Mittal and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh of Columbia University declared that fewer employees working in offices portend the collapse of property values which in turn portends the collapse of the municipal treasury and, by implication, the end of life on earth as we know it.

The portrayal of a city in its death throes casts a destructive damper on the Big Apple as it continues its fitful recovery from the COVID pandemic.

Dystopian claims take on an aura of unchallengeable truth for those impressed with mathematical equations unintelligible to anyone without a Ph. D.

Who could argue with them?

Well, maybe anybody who ever got a sunburn after a computer model warned of downpours.

The authors are great with numbers but out of touch with Manhattan real-estate reality.

For starters, they rely on Kastle Systems, a security-services provider, to quantify todays supposedly paltry physical office presence a mere 50%, Kastle says. 

But Kastles survey has been widely debunked for its inadequate, worst-case sample.

It covers mostly second-tier office buildings but not the superior buildings owned by the citys 10 largest landlords such as SL Green, Vornado Realty Trust, and Related Companies.

Those so-called Class-A and A-plus properties are the heart of Manhattans half-billion-square-foot office inventory.

Theyre much more than half full because theyre leased to companies that require the most office attendance financial institutions and law firms. 

The Real Estate Board of New York and the Partnership for New York City report considerably higher occupancy than Kastles up to 90% in some premier locations.

But theyd undercut Apocalypse right at the starting gate. 

Sure, commercial landlords are under pressure.

Owners of some older buildings could face bankruptcy.

But even if the overall value of New York City office locations falls 43.9% by 2029 an Apocalypse projection shared by no other analysis would it be the end of the world for the city as a whole?

Maybe it would if there were no actual people involved such as elected officials, landlords, other business leaders, and people just sick of working remotely to arrest the decline. 

Just as Tom Hanks as Capt. Chesley Sullenberger shredded investigators attempt to blame him for the crash computers showed could have been avoided Lets get serious you have not taken into account the human factor so does Apocalypse fall apart the moment whats now called human agency is added. 

Maybe more employees will come back to offices a trend thats gaining traction as bosses read them the riot act.

Landlords might find that they need as much space as before even if employees only come in three or four days a week.

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Maybe owners will find ways to convert more office buildings to other uses than is currently thought possible.

Maybe another Wall Street boom will impel more companies to expand, as private equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice just did by doubling its square footage in a move to 550 Madison Ave.

The assumption of shrunken tax revenue is based on the notion that buildings will lose value due to remote work.

But will they?

SL Green just sold a 49% share of 245 Park Ave. to Japans Mori Trust in a deal that values the nearly 60-year-old property at $2 billion.

Thats hardly a catastrophic plunge from the towers last sale price of $2.2 billion in 2017 when the market was at its peak.

Comptroller Brad Lander reported last week to some surprise that office-building values actually increased from 2021 to 2022 to 97% of pre-pandemic levels.

He wrote that even if office values were to fall by 40%, it would cost the city no more than $1.1 billion in annual property tax revenue by 2027 a mere 3% of all property tax collections, only 1% of the overall budget and well within the range in which tax revenues can ordinarily vary.

For all its intimidating graphs and equations, Apocalypse works the same sensationalist street as alarmist, headline-grabbing forecasts by credentialed experts that turned out to be bogus.

There was no population bomb that caused global famine as foreseen by Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne Howland Ehrlich in 1968; no Great Depression of 1990 as predicted by best-selling economist Ravi Batra in 1987; and no World War III with Japan as envisioned by geopolitical analysts George Friedman and Meredith LeBard 

Therell be no real estate apocalypse, either. 

Hold the taps for New York City, psychos, and all.

Theres nothing certain about our future, of course.

But one day well look back on the Doom Loop and marvel that it panicked so many of us who are.

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UK

Bereaved parents campaign for tougher laws on unlicensed driving

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Bereaved parents campaign for tougher laws on unlicensed driving

Harry Parker was just 14 years old when he was hit and killed by a car on his way to school in Swindon.

“He was a lovely lad, full of life. A football fanatic,” said Harry’s dad, Adam. “He would always make people smile and just have a good time. He was my right hand man. Daddy’s boy.”

His mum Kelly says the memory of what happened that day in November 2022 is seared into her mind.

“I can remember walking into that room now, he was in resus, lying on a trolley. He was just absolutely lifeless. I pushed all the doctors away, I pushed everyone out the way and just went to him and said ‘Harry, please, come on son, you’ve got me. We can do this together’.

“But half an hour later, the doctors came through and told us the devastating news that there was nothing anybody could do for him. As a nurse I’m at the hospital every day, helping people. I love that, that’s my job. But I couldn’t help my son. Nobody could.

“The hardest part was when we had to say goodbye to him. We had to make the decision to turn the life support machine off. Harry was in the middle, me and his dad lay on each side of him, holding him so tight and feeling his heart beat, until we felt the very last beat.”

The driver of the car didn’t have a licence, insurance, or stop at the scene.

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But two years after Harry’s death the Crown Prosecution Service told his parents that they were dropping the charges.

They said: “We examined this case in great detail – including obtaining the advice of a forensic collision expert – and it has become clear that there is not enough evidence to demonstrate that this collision could reasonably have been avoided, and therefore that the driving was careless.”

Harry Parker
Image:
Harry Parker’s father, Adam, described his son as ‘football mad’

For Adam and Kelly it was a huge blow.

“I was enraged, angry,” said Adam. “I just wanted to lash out. But there’s no point in doing that. The only way to win this fight is to go through the legal procedures and do this properly. I can’t believe that the law is so lenient on people who haven’t got a licence.”

There is no current national data on the number of unlicensed drivers, though past research by the Department for Transport estimated they commit 9.3% – or nearly 1 in 10 – of all motoring offences. It was thought there could be as many as 470,000 on the roads.

In 2006 the Labour government introduced a new offence of causing death while driving without a licence or insurance, punishable by up to two years in prison.

But in 2013 the Supreme Court ruled that, due to the way the legislation was worded, prosecutors still had to prove the driving was at fault – thus rendering the new law fairly redundant, as a driver could then be charged by careless or dangerous driving.

The judges were concerned about faultless drivers being charged if a drunk pedestrian fell into the road in front of them, or if someone attempted suicide by jumping out into the road.

The Parkers’ local MP, Will Stone, believes the law needs to be changed to reflect the spirit and intention of the 2006 legislation.

He has a Ten Minute Rule Bill today – a motion to seek MPs’ permission to introduce a bill to make the case for a new law.

Will Stone is the Labour MP for Swindon North.
Pic: Uk Parliament
Image:
Will Stone, Labour MP for Swindon North, wants the law to be changed.
Pic: UK Parliament

Labour MP Mr Stone is hoping the government will adopt the bill as part of their forthcoming road safety strategy.

What we’re specifically looking to do with the Harry Parker Bill, is that if a driver without a licence crashes into somebody and it results in death, it would automatically be deemed careless,” he said.

“There is clearly a loophole in the rules. You need a driving licence to drive. Therefore, choosing to go without one is careless by default. You shouldn’t be on the road because you don’t have the requirements to operate a car, and I think that is a safety risk.

The Department of Transport said: “Every death on our roads is a tragedy and our thoughts remain with the family and friends of Harry Parker.

“The government takes road safety seriously, and we are committed to reducing the number of those killed and injured on our roads.”

Harry Parker
Image:
Harry Parker’s father, Adam, believes there is ‘clearly a loophole in the rules’

Adam Parker now spends every morning on the road outside Harry’s school, making sure all the pupils get across safety. He and Kelly are campaigning to raise awareness of road safety, hoping that Harry’s legacy will be to protect other children.

“You shouldn’t send your child off to school, planning what you’re going to cook them that evening, planning what they’re going to have for their birthday in five days time, but it doesn’t happen because someone just hits him,” said Kelly. “We don’t want any other parents to have to go through this.”

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Environment

US solar module production capacity reaches 50+ GW

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US solar module production capacity reaches 50+ GW

The US solar manufacturing industry just hit a historic milestone: Domestic solar module production capacity has surpassed 50 gigawatts (GW). If all these factories ran at full capacity, they could produce enough modules to meet the country’s entire solar demand.

This achievement signals a shift in the US solar industry, which has historically depended on imports for key components.

According to the Solar Energy Industries Association’s (SEIA) Supply Chain Dashboard, companies have announced plans for 56 GW of new solar cell production in the US, 24 GW of wafer production, and 13 GW of ingots. Meanwhile, domestic solar tracker manufacturing capacity has now topped 80 GW.

SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper said:

Reaching 50 GW of domestic solar manufacturing capacity is a testament to what we can achieve with smart, business-friendly public policies in place.

The US is now the third-largest module producer in the world because of these policy actions.

This milestone marks progress for the solar industry and reinforces the essential role energy policies play in building up the domestic manufacturing industry that American workers and their families rely on.

SEIA first set a goal in 2020 to reach 50 GW of US solar module production capacity by 2030 – enough power output to match 27 Hoover Dams. That goal spans the entire solar supply chain, from modules and cells to ingots, wafers, polysilicon, trackers, and inverters.

At the time, the US had only 7 GW of domestic module production and no manufacturing for critical upstream components like ingots and wafers. Fast forward to today, and the industry looks a lot different. Two new US solar cell factories – one in Georgia and another in South Carolina – have already come online in the past few months, helping to fill in the gaps.

SEIA’s strategy has focused on building out domestic module production first to create demand for upstream components. Thanks to policy incentives that SEIA helped advocate for such as the advanced manufacturing production tax credit, companies are now investing in every part of the solar supply chain.

Another win came when SEIA pushed for solar ingot and wafer production to qualify for a 25% investment tax credit under the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022. That move is helping build out the US solar supply chain even further. Since the passage of key federal energy policies, US solar module manufacturing has grown five-fold.

Read more: The US’s largest solar cell factory is now online in South Carolina


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Technology

Asia tech stocks rise after Trump pauses tariffs on Canada and Mexico

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Asia tech stocks rise after Trump pauses tariffs on Canada and Mexico

Meituan Dianping application icons are displayed on an Apple Inc. iPhone in Hong Kong, China, on Friday, March 23, 2018.

Justin Chin | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Asian tech stocks rose Tuesday, following news that U.S. president Donald Trump had paused tariffs on Mexico for a month, while also postponing tariffs on Canadian exports.

Gains were broad-based across tech stocks in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong, and came as their counterparts in the U.S. cut their losses on Monday, following tariff announcements that came late in the day.

Japanese Semiconductor players Advantest and Lasertec led gains among the country’s tech stocks, rising 5% and 4.81%, respectively.

Other Japanese tech companies also rose. Tokyo Electron was up 2.82%, Renesas Electronics gained 2.99% while SoftBank Group advanced 1.53%.

Taiwanese chip company TSMC and manufacturer Foxconn rose 2.8% and

Tech stocks in Asia had come under pressure after Chinese startup DeepSeek launched a free, open-source language model that challenged the supremacy of the U.S.-led AI ecosystem. These stocks subsequently rebounded last week, but the rally mostly got stalled Monday over tariff worries.

South Korean tech stocks were also trading higher on Tuesday, with Samsung Electronics gaining 4.13% and SK Hynix rising marginally, up 0.63%.

The latest gains are a reversal from the weakness seen in both stocks last Friday when the South Korean market re-opened after a four-day break. Shares in Samsung Electronics have also been under pressure after its fourth-quarter profit missed estimates on the back of higher costs.

Chinese tech major Tencent’s shares rose 3.07% in HongKong, while shopping platform Meituan’s stock advanced 5.06%, electronic vehicle maker BYD rose 4.22%, Xpeng was trading 14.46% higher and Li Auto gained 9.35%.

Chinese AI-linked stocks also rose with Alibaba up 3.09% and Kingsoft Cloud rose 7%.

The gains in Chinese companies come even as U.S. tariffs on CnaChina are set to kick in. Trump will reportedly speak with President Xi Jinping this week, signaling the intent to avoid a broader tariff war between the world’s top two economies.

Correction: The story has been updated to reflect that the U.S. has paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

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