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Global commodities have seen a more than 20% slump compared to the same period last year, as reflected by the S&P GSCI Commodities index.

Jung Getty | Moment | Getty Images

Prices of commodities like crude oil and iron ore have been sliding this year, underlining a continuing economic rout across the globe and possible recession risks, market watchers told CNBC.

Global commodities have seen a more than 25% slump over the last 12 months as reflected by the S&P GSCI Commodities index — a benchmark measuring the wider performance of various commodity markets.

Out of the different baskets of commodities, industrial metals have slid 3.79% during that period (up to June 30), while energy commodities like oil and gas have slipped 23%. Conversely, agricultural commodities such as grain, wheat, and sugar have gained roughly 11%. 

But the overall slide for the index is likely pointing to a global economic slowdown and a recession, analysts say, as China’s Covid-19 rebound loses momentum.

“Iron ore and copper are good barometers of the very cyclical portions of the global economy, including construction and manufacturing, of which are in recession in many places,” Kpler’s Senior Commodity Analyst Reid I’Anson said via e-mail.

“It is my belief that this will flow through to a broader decline in economic activity, especially in the West,” I’Anson added.

He foresees that the U.S. will likely see a GDP contraction in the fourth quarter of this year or 2024’s first quarter, and that Europe will follow suit in three to six months.

“The failure of the Chinese economy to live up to the expectations of the market is the biggest reason commodity markets are struggling to find a footing,” I’Anson continued.

China has been posting a slew of economic data that has been weaker than market expectations, pointing to a faltering Covid reopening after years of strict lockdowns. Bank of America analysts confirm that China’s rebound has been weaker than expected.

“Especially for property,  investment dropped 7% year-on-year,” said the bank’s Head of Asia-Pacific Basic Materials and Oil‎ & Gas Research, Matty Zhao. A property market decline is often associated with a drop in demand for construction materials like steel, aluminum, copper and nickel.

China’s real estate sector slump is predicted to last for years, according to Wall Street banks. And the Chinese government doesn’t look like it’s going to pursue an aggressive fiscal stimulus package, said I’Anson. Even if it does, “it would need to be sizable to impress markets at this point.”

Biggest losers, and what it means

While prices of soft commodities are rising as El Niño hammers crop output prospects, energy and industrial metals are trading a lot lower.

Among the biggest losers of the commodities slide are iron ore and oil, the analysts concur. Kpler has cited the downbeat prospects of copper as well, which acts as a proxy economic pulse check due to its various uses such as electrical equipment and industrial machinery.

Oil prices have declined significantly, with the global benchmark Brent plunging 34.76% year-on-year, even as OPEC’s output cuts come into play.

Weak energy consumption in Europe, in part due to a warm winter, has led to gas storage surging to past-five year high levels in the EU, and pushed down prices, said Zhao. Additionally, the world’s largest oil importer China, has been ramping up coal production instead amid a power crunch.

That being said, in the event of an extreme cold weather event, energy prices may recover in the second half of the year, Zhao forecasts.

According to BofA, the year-to-date average of steel and iron ore prices dropped 16% year-on-year on the back of sluggish construction demand. Poor construction demand also reflects in other building materials like cement, whose inventory levels have reached 75%.

Iron ore is primarily used to make steel, an important material in construction and engineering projects.

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“Commodities such as industrial metals tend to move lower ahead of economic leading indicators like PMIs and historically have helped signal when a downturn might occur,” said Director of Commodities and Real Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, Jim Wiederhold. He added that oil tends to “dip drastically” as a downturn is happening.

“In general, many major commodities slumped over the last few months as companies and consumers reduced their demand ahead of a potential economic downturn,” he said.

Commodities also tend to move in tandem with changes in inflation, Wiederhold continued. And if inflation continues to dip lower, commodity markets could see more downside in the short term, he said.

According to the International Monetary Fund, global headline inflation is poised to fall from 8.7% in 2022 to 7% in 2023. 

“Given commodities are an early indicator, I’d say prices will likely struggle to find much footing until next year,” said I’Anson.

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OpenAI leads private market surge as 7 tech startups reach combined $1.3 trillion valuation

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OpenAI leads private market surge as 7 tech startups reach combined .3 trillion valuation

OpenAI surges to first place as Forge's Private Mag 7 hit $1.2 trillion

Three years ago, Sam Altman lit the fuse for what’s become the most explosive bull run in the history of tech startups with the launch of ChatGPT.

Along with OpenAI’s rapid rise to a $500 billion valuation, other prominent names like SpaceX, Anthropic and Anduril have seen astronomical markups of late. In total, a basket of seven of the highest-valued private tech companies is now worth $1.3 trillion on paper, almost doubling in the past year, according to Forge Global, which provides a marketplace for private investments.

Forge’s value assessments are based on trading activity as well as funding round valuations and tender offers.

That number is continuing to grow. On Friday, CNBC’s David Faber reported that Elon Musk’s xAI is raising $10 billion at a $200 billion valuation, just months after achieving a $150 billion valuation.

Like in the public markets, where the artificial intelligence boom has dramatically lifted the market caps of Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle and others, AI is also the dominant driver of private market valuations.

OpenAI leads the pack (Forge values it at $324 billion), followed by four-year-old Anthropic at $178 billion, with xAI at $90 billion, according to Forge. Those three companies are all competing directly with one another, as well as with Google and Meta, to create the large language models of the future.

Databricks, which is also one of Forge’s seven leading companies, is valued at $100 billion, due to the data analytics startup’s hefty investments in AI.

The other companies in the group are Musk’s SpaceX, fintech company Stripe and defense tech company Anduril, valued by Forge at $456 billion, $92 billion and $53 billion, respectively. AI is having such a big impact on defense and national security that Forge created a new defense fund to give institutions exposure to the sector.

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI (L) and Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla.

Reuters

As as a group, they’ve quadrupled their value since late 2022, when ChatGPT first hit the market.

Forge CEO Kelly Rodriques said that the valuation surge is reflective of actual growth, not just projections.

“We’ve not seen this in the private market ever,” he said. “Companies that are growing at 100%, 200%, 300% on numbers that are already pretty big.”

The hunger for AI exposure is reshaping capital flows into AI, beyond just the few companies at the very top. According to Forge, 19 AI firms have raised $65 billion so far this year, accounting for 77% of all private-market capital.

With that kind of cash available, those companies have little incentive to going public, Rodrigues said.

“If these stocks are liquid and have access to as much capital as they can get, regulation is probably the only thing stopping them from staying private for as long as they want,” he said.

Even without being publicly traded, they’re having a significant impact on the public markets.

Oracle’s stock jumped 36% in a single day this month after the software maker’s earnings report, largely due to a massive contract with OpenAI. Broadcom also forged a new mammoth deal with the ChatGPT creator, while Microsoft continues to benefit from its substantial equity stake in the company.

Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta all recently raised capital spending guidance to reflect infrastructure demand.

OpenAI’s Altman sees some reasons for caution.

At a dinner with reporters in San Francisco last month, he described current valuations as “insane” and acknowledged that yes, “we are in a bubble.”

But he’s still betting big.

“You should expect OpenAI to spend trillions of dollars on datacenter construction,” he said. “We will spend maybe more aggressively than any company who’s ever spent on anything… because we just have this very deep belief in what we’re seeing.”

WATCH: Musk, Altman rivalry escalates with new OpenAI hire

Musk, Altman rivalry escalates with new OpenAI hire

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Trump wields ‘golden share’ to halt U.S. Steel plant shutdown, WSJ reports

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Trump wields ‘golden share’ to halt U.S. Steel plant shutdown, WSJ reports

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., Sept. 19, 2025.

Ken Cedeno | Reuters

The Trump administration stepped in to stop U.S. Steel from idling operations at its Granite City, Ill., plant, exercising new powers tied to the company’s recent takeover, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The steelmaker had informed nearly 800 workers that the plant would close in November, noting however that they would still be paid. But after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick warned CEO Dave Burritt the administration wouldn’t allow it, U.S. Steel reversed course on Friday, saying the facility would keep rolling slabs into sheet steel, the Journal reported, citing a person familiar with the matter.

The intervention marked Trump’s first use of so-called “golden share” rights, a condition of the $14.1 billion takeover by Japan’s Nippon that cleared in June. The national-security agreement gave the White House veto power over plant closures, offshore production shifts and other strategic decisions.

U.S. Steel didn’t immediately respond to CNBC for comment.

The move highlights Trump’s growing hand in the private sector. Last month, the president said the government would take a 10% stake in Intel, after the chipmaker received billions in subsidies under the 2022 Chips Act.

In June, when the deal was announced, Trump told U.S. Steel workers that Nippon would be a “great partner.” The Trump administration is currently engaged in trade talks with Japan as investors eagerly await signs that the U.S. will strike deals with key partners that avoid steep tariffs.

Trump told the steelworkers that Nippon had agreed to keep U.S. Steel’s blast furnaces operating at full capacity for a minimum of 10 years. The president said the deal would not result in layoffs and promised there would be “no outsourcing whatsoever.” At the time, he said workers would receive a $5,000 bonus.

Read the complete WSJ story here.

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Two days left to comment on EPA’s plan to raise gas prices 76c/gal, kill thousands

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Two days left to comment on EPA's plan to raise gas prices 76c/gal, kill thousands

In July, the US Environmental Protection Agency proposed a plan to delete its scientific finding recognizing that greenhouse gases are harmful to human health, with the goal of making cars less efficient and more costly to fuel. That plan went up for public comment last month, and the public comment period closes in two days, on September 22.

At issue is the EPA’s “Endangerment Finding,” which is the scientific basis of EPA’s regulation of harmful greenhouse gases. The endangerment finding found that greenhouse gases are harmful to human health, recognizing a scientific fact that every serious person has known for a long time – but now it was at least codified into federal procedure.

The Endangerment Finding focused specifically on carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), sulfur hexaflouride (SF6), hydroflourocarbons (HFCs), nitrous oxide (N2O), and perfluourocarbons (PFCs, now more commonly known as PFAS or “forever chemicals”), all of which we are certain cause climate change and harm humans.

And, in fact, the EPA is required to regulate these pollutants by the Clean Air Act, which tells the EPA that it must work to reduce air pollution.

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Lee Zeldin wants to poison you and raise your fuel costs

Despite that legal requirement, in July, Lee Zeldin, a fraudster placed into the position of chief saboteur of the EPA by a convicted felon who sought a billion-dollar bribe from the oil industry while running for an office he is Constitutionally barred from holding, announced that he would repeal this finding, flying in the face of law, science, public health and American economic interests.

Zeldin’s stated purpose for attempting to delete this finding is because if the finding is gone, it will allow him to roll back other life- and money-saving vehicle efficiency regulations. He wants to revert those regulations because they constrain the fossil fuel industry – which has given him hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes over his political career.

The specific regulations that Zeldin has his eyes on are automotive regulations put in place by the EPA under President Biden. According to the government’s own numbers, these regulations stand to save 2,000 lives per year and save Americans over $100 billion dollars per year in fuel and health costs.

In announcing his illegal plan to kill Americans and cost all of us more money, Zeldin was joined by Chris Wright, a former oil CEO who is currently the titular head of the Department of Energy. In April, Wright signed off on a DoE report which said the rollbacks sought by Zeldin would raise gas prices by 76 cents per gallon, showing that the people behind this plan know it will increase your costs and yet are shoving it down your throat anyway.

The reason gas prices would rise is because of higher demand. If vehicles are less efficient, not only will they burn more gasoline thus costing you more money and also causing more pollution, more dependency on foreign oil and higher health costs for everyone, but that gasoline will be more expensive because that’s what happens to prices of products when demand rises. And the proceeds from those higher gas prices aren’t going to anything societally beneficial, they’re rather going to line the pockets of oil elites.

Wright’s office also offered a junk report (which is wrong in 100 ways) to justify the EPA’s position, claiming wrongly that climate change isn’t all that bad. But in doing so, the DoE misinterprets data, which the author of one of the cited studies immediately pointed out that the DoE misinterpreted. So, even the stretched justifications offered for the plan are steeped in the ignorance we have come accustomed to since late January.

So far, this clearly harmful plan has only been proposed, and has been open for public comment on regulations.gov since early September, where interested members of the public can leave substantive comments on whether they support the planned regulatory change or not.

Since then, comments have been rolling in, though the docket only shows a total of 676 approved comments as of this writing. This seems exceptionally low, given that the original endangerment finding produced some 380,000 comments.

As it turns out, the EPA has actually received a total of 111,596 comments so far, but it has been approving those comments for public posting at a glacial pace. At the current rate, it will take some 30 years for the agency to sift through and approve all the comments.

We reached out to the EPA to ask what was taking so long, and it said that it was busy categorizing comments based on whether they were part of a mass comment campaign or written by individual commenters, and sorting through them for the presence of profanity (although, one wonders if profanity is really all that unjustified when it’s on a plan that will knowingly kill thousands of people per year). Many comments have been “deferred” after an initial scan, awaiting another look.

Regardless, the number of approved comments is still incredibly small compared to the total, and it’s hard not to wonder if something nefarious is happening here.

Looking through the few comments EPA has accepted, the vast majority seem to be in favor of the reasonable and both scientifically and legally correct position of maintaining the Endangerment Finding. If these are the comments that EPA deigned to allow through, even in the midst of its efforts to kill Americans, then we can imagine even more vehement opposition to its plan in the 110,920+ comments it has hidden (including this author’s… which was made as soon as the docket went up for comment, and much like this article, is forceful and truthful but not profane).

In addition to the public comment site, EPA also held a virtual public hearing, where interested members of the public could call in to make their voices heard. The vast majority of callers supported the scientifically correct position of maintaining the finding.

The comment period is also much shorter than usually expected for regulations like this, as pointed out by a comment made by the Attorneys General of several states. The comment period is likely smaller than legally required of the EPA, just another example of the EPA breaking the law to try to kill you. After this comment, EPA did extend the comment period… by one week, from September 15 to September 22. Which is still not as long as the legal requirement.

Public comments can be submitted here. In case you get lost, the docket code is EPA-HQ-OAR-2025-0194.

If Zeldin pushes forward with his idea despite the inevitable public opposition to a plan to raise Americans’ costs and make their lives more deadly, the move will likely be caught up in courts for years, wasting Americans’ time and money and jeopardizing American competitiveness as the world rapidly moves towards improving vehicle efficiency without us.

Even if this clearly unwise and probably illegal move loses in court eventually, we still will have lost time in the transition – giving Zeldin’s oil masters some extra runway to sell their poison to us, and ensuring America’s competitors get a leg up in the transition to cleaner technologies while Americans remain forever poorer and sicker as a result of the republican party’s actions.

Public comments on this ridiculous plan are open through September 22 at 11:59PM EDT, 8:59PM PDT. Comments can be submitted here. In case you get lost, the docket code is EPA-HQ-OAR-2025-0194. EPA has to respond to legitimate concerns made during public comment periods or else the rule could be voided, so the more substantive your comment, the better.


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