Global commodities have seen a more than 20% slump compared to the same period last year, as reflected by the S&P GSCI Commodities index.
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Prices of commodities like crude oil and iron ore have been sliding this year, underlining a continuing economic rout across the globe and possible recession risks, market watchers told CNBC.
Global commodities have seen a more than 25% slump over the last 12 months as reflected by the S&P GSCI Commodities index — a benchmark measuring the wider performance of various commodity markets.
Out of the different baskets of commodities, industrial metals have slid 3.79% during that period (up to June 30), while energy commodities like oil and gas have slipped 23%. Conversely, agricultural commodities such as grain, wheat, and sugar have gained roughly 11%.
But the overall slide for the index is likely pointing to a global economic slowdown and a recession, analysts say, as China’s Covid-19 rebound loses momentum.
“Iron ore and copper are good barometers of the very cyclical portions of the global economy, including construction and manufacturing, of which are in recession in many places,” Kpler’s Senior Commodity Analyst Reid I’Anson said via e-mail.
“It is my belief that this will flow through to a broader decline in economic activity, especially in the West,” I’Anson added.
He foresees that the U.S. will likely see a GDP contraction in the fourth quarter of this year or 2024’s first quarter, and that Europe will follow suit in three to six months.
“The failure of the Chinese economy to live up to the expectations of the market is the biggest reason commodity markets are struggling to find a footing,” I’Anson continued.
China has been posting a slew of economic data that has been weaker than market expectations, pointing to a faltering Covid reopening after years of strict lockdowns. Bank of America analysts confirm that China’s rebound has been weaker than expected.
“Especially for property, investment dropped 7% year-on-year,” said the bank’s Head of Asia-Pacific Basic Materials and Oil & Gas Research, Matty Zhao. A property market decline is often associated with a drop in demand for construction materials like steel, aluminum, copper and nickel.
China’s real estate sector slump is predicted to last for years, according to Wall Street banks. And the Chinese government doesn’t look like it’s going to pursue an aggressive fiscal stimulus package, said I’Anson. Even if it does, “it would need to be sizable to impress markets at this point.”
Among the biggest losers of the commodities slide are iron ore and oil, the analysts concur. Kpler has cited the downbeat prospects of copper as well, which acts as a proxy economic pulse check due to its various uses such as electrical equipment and industrial machinery.
Oil prices have declined significantly, with the global benchmark Brent plunging 34.76% year-on-year, even as OPEC’s output cuts come into play.
Weak energy consumption in Europe, in part due to a warm winter, has led to gas storage surging to past-five year high levels in the EU, and pushed down prices, said Zhao. Additionally, the world’s largest oil importer China, has been ramping up coal production instead amid a power crunch.
That being said, in the event of an extreme cold weather event, energy prices may recover in the second half of the year, Zhao forecasts.
According to BofA, the year-to-date average of steel and iron ore prices dropped 16% year-on-year on the back of sluggish construction demand. Poor construction demand also reflects in other building materials like cement, whose inventory levels have reached 75%.
Iron ore is primarily used to make steel, an important material in construction and engineering projects.
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“Commodities such as industrial metals tend to move lower ahead of economic leading indicators like PMIs and historically have helped signal when a downturn might occur,” said Director of Commodities and Real Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, Jim Wiederhold. He added that oil tends to “dip drastically” as a downturn is happening.
“In general, many major commodities slumped over the last few months as companies and consumers reduced their demand ahead of a potential economic downturn,” he said.
Commodities also tend to move in tandem with changes in inflation, Wiederhold continued. And if inflation continues to dip lower, commodity markets could see more downside in the short term, he said.
According to the International Monetary Fund, global headline inflation is poised to fall from 8.7% in 2022 to 7% in 2023.
“Given commodities are an early indicator, I’d say prices will likely struggle to find much footing until next year,” said I’Anson.
While much of the Western world is still figuring out how to get more people on electric bikes, China just flipped a switch, and the results are staggering. Thanks to a generous nationwide trade-in program rolled out around six months ago, China has seen an explosive surge in electric bicycle sales, with over 8.47 million new e-bikes hitting the road in the first half of 2025 alone.
The program, which offers subsidies to riders who trade in their old, often outdated electric bikes for newer, safer, and more efficient models, has sparked a new e-bike sale boom in a country already dominated by e-bike travel. In major provinces like Jiangsu, Hebei, and Zhejiang, over one million new e-bikes were sold in each region in just six months. That’s a tidal wave of e-bike sales.
The incentives vary depending on location and the model being traded in, but for many consumers, the subsidies cover a substantial portion of a new e-bike’s price – enough to turn a “maybe next year” purchase into a “right now” upgrade. And these aren’t just budget bikes either. The program has driven demand for higher-quality models with better batteries, safer braking systems, and more reliable electronics, accelerating both adoption and innovation across the industry.
The move has proven successful in replacing the millions of older models with lower-quality lithium-ion batteries that had posed safety risks around the country. Instead, China has pushed for higher-quality lithium-ion batteries, a return to a newer generation of higher-performance AGM batteries, and even interesting new sodium-ion battery options.
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Most e-bikes in China look more like what we’d consider seated scooters
According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, more than 8.4 million consumers have participated in the e-bike trade-in program so far, contributing to a sales increase of 643.5% year-over-year and more than doubling sales month-over-month. Meanwhile, production of new electric bicycles rose by nearly 28%, as manufacturers scrambled to meet demand. The sales boosts have already been seen in the financial reports of major industry players like NIU.
And it’s not just the big players benefiting – over 82,000 small independent e-bike dealers reported average sales increases of ¥302,000 (around US $42,000), giving a serious boost to local economies.
What’s particularly striking here is how fast this happened. The program was officially launched late last year as part of a broader effort to stimulate domestic consumption and phase out outdated vehicles and appliances. But while most analysts expected gradual growth, the e-bike sector responded much more quickly. In less than a year, the trade-in subsidies have reshaped the electric bicycle market, creating a consumer-driven boom that shows no signs of slowing.
For those of us watching from outside China, it’s hard not to wonder what might happen if other countries tried something similar. While most families in Chinese cities already own an electric bike and thus see this as an opportunity to trade it in for a newer model, Western countries like the US are still figuring out how to stimulate commuters into buying their first e-bike.
It’s too soon to know exactly how long the boom will last or whether the momentum will carry into 2026 and beyond. We’ve seen bicycle industry bubbles grow and burst before. But one thing’s clear: with the right incentives, even modest ones, it’s possible to ignite real, large-scale change. China just proved it with nearly 8.5 million new e-bikes to show for it.
And if you’re wondering what it looks like when a country takes electric micromobility seriously, this is it.
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Today was the official start of racing at the Electrek Formula Sun Grand Prix 2025! There was a tremendous energy (and heat) on the ground at NCM Motorsports Park as nearly a dozen teams took to the track. Currently, as of writing, Stanford is ranked #1 in the SOV (Single-Occupant Vehicle) class with 68 registered laps. However, the fastest lap so far belongs to UC Berkeley, which clocked a 4:45 on the 3.15-mile track. That’s an average speed of just under 40 mph on nothing but solar energy. Not bad!
In the MOV (Multi-Occupant Vehicle) class, Polytechnique Montréal is narrowly ahead of Appalachian State by just 4 laps. At last year’s formula sun race, Polytechnique Montréal took first place overall in this class, and the team hopes to repeat that success. It’s still too early for prediction though, and anything can happen between now and the final day of racing on Saturday.
Congrats to the teams that made it on track today. We look forward to seeing even more out there tomorrow. In the meantime, here are some shots from today via the event’s wonderful photographer Cora Kennedy.
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The numbers are in and they are all bad for Tesla fans – the company sold just 5,000 Cybertruck models in Q4 of 2025, and built some 30% more “other” vehicles than it delivered. It just gets worse and worse, on today’s tension-building episode of Quick Charge!
We’ve also got day 1 coverage of the 2025 Electrek Formula Sun Grand Prix, reports that the Tesla Optimus program is in chaos after its chief engineer jumps ship, and a look ahead at the fresh new Hyundai IONIQ 2 set to bow early next year, thanks to some battery specs from the Kia EV2.
New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news.
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