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Do you want to believe that New York City is in an urban doom cycle?

Its easy if you just ignore indisputable facts.

Take major crimes, an NYPD metric thats distorted upward by skyrocketing auto theft even as the crimes we fear most murder, shootings, and rape continue to ebb lower from last years totals.

Surprise! Murders are on track to be 40% fewer this year than they were in crime-busting Rudy Giulianis last two years as mayor when they were 673 and 649 respectively.

At the midpoint of 2023, weve had 193 murders, on track for a total of around 400 down from 488 in 2021 and 438 in 2022.

Ah, but there were only 319 murders in 2019!

True, but nobody foresaw the end of the world in 2010 when murders jumped to 536 over 471 in 2009 even though then-Mayor Michael Bloombergs stop-and-frisk was in full force.

As the late, great Yankees skipper Casey Stengel often said, you can look it up.

Misperceptions of crime do have a rational basis, though: an ever-increasing street disorder that might not kill but threatens us in other ways lawless cyclists, open-air drug use, unchecked shoplifting, and raving maniacs who might or might not come at us with knives.

The sense of a city sprung and lurching, beyond the governments will or ability to rein in, creates a mood where actual violent crime may seem more prevalent than it is.

But the supposed inevitability of urban collapse due to remote work another article of faith among New Yorks dark prophets has no visible basis other than suspect computer models. 

Never mind that sidewalks are packed, subway riderships up and apartments are in more demand than ever were doomed!

A recent, endlessly cited paper titled Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse by three learned scholars Arpit Gupta of NYU and Vrinda Mittal and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh of Columbia University declared that fewer employees working in offices portend the collapse of property values which in turn portends the collapse of the municipal treasury and, by implication, the end of life on earth as we know it.

The portrayal of a city in its death throes casts a destructive damper on the Big Apple as it continues its fitful recovery from the COVID pandemic.

Dystopian claims take on an aura of unchallengeable truth for those impressed with mathematical equations unintelligible to anyone without a Ph. D.

Who could argue with them?

Well, maybe anybody who ever got a sunburn after a computer model warned of downpours.

The authors are great with numbers but out of touch with Manhattan real-estate reality.

For starters, they rely on Kastle Systems, a security-services provider, to quantify todays supposedly paltry physical office presence a mere 50%, Kastle says. 

But Kastles survey has been widely debunked for its inadequate, worst-case sample.

It covers mostly second-tier office buildings but not the superior buildings owned by the citys 10 largest landlords such as SL Green, Vornado Realty Trust, and Related Companies.

Those so-called Class-A and A-plus properties are the heart of Manhattans half-billion-square-foot office inventory.

Theyre much more than half full because theyre leased to companies that require the most office attendance financial institutions and law firms. 

The Real Estate Board of New York and the Partnership for New York City report considerably higher occupancy than Kastles up to 90% in some premier locations.

But theyd undercut Apocalypse right at the starting gate. 

Sure, commercial landlords are under pressure.

Owners of some older buildings could face bankruptcy.

But even if the overall value of New York City office locations falls 43.9% by 2029 an Apocalypse projection shared by no other analysis would it be the end of the world for the city as a whole?

Maybe it would if there were no actual people involved such as elected officials, landlords, other business leaders, and people just sick of working remotely to arrest the decline. 

Just as Tom Hanks as Capt. Chesley Sullenberger shredded investigators attempt to blame him for the crash computers showed could have been avoided Lets get serious you have not taken into account the human factor so does Apocalypse fall apart the moment whats now called human agency is added. 

Maybe more employees will come back to offices a trend thats gaining traction as bosses read them the riot act.

Landlords might find that they need as much space as before even if employees only come in three or four days a week.

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Maybe owners will find ways to convert more office buildings to other uses than is currently thought possible.

Maybe another Wall Street boom will impel more companies to expand, as private equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice just did by doubling its square footage in a move to 550 Madison Ave.

The assumption of shrunken tax revenue is based on the notion that buildings will lose value due to remote work.

But will they?

SL Green just sold a 49% share of 245 Park Ave. to Japans Mori Trust in a deal that values the nearly 60-year-old property at $2 billion.

Thats hardly a catastrophic plunge from the towers last sale price of $2.2 billion in 2017 when the market was at its peak.

Comptroller Brad Lander reported last week to some surprise that office-building values actually increased from 2021 to 2022 to 97% of pre-pandemic levels.

He wrote that even if office values were to fall by 40%, it would cost the city no more than $1.1 billion in annual property tax revenue by 2027 a mere 3% of all property tax collections, only 1% of the overall budget and well within the range in which tax revenues can ordinarily vary.

For all its intimidating graphs and equations, Apocalypse works the same sensationalist street as alarmist, headline-grabbing forecasts by credentialed experts that turned out to be bogus.

There was no population bomb that caused global famine as foreseen by Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne Howland Ehrlich in 1968; no Great Depression of 1990 as predicted by best-selling economist Ravi Batra in 1987; and no World War III with Japan as envisioned by geopolitical analysts George Friedman and Meredith LeBard 

Therell be no real estate apocalypse, either. 

Hold the taps for New York City, psychos, and all.

Theres nothing certain about our future, of course.

But one day well look back on the Doom Loop and marvel that it panicked so many of us who are glad to be here and plan to stay.

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Thieves steal more than 1,000 items from museum’s collection in ‘brazen’ heist

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Thieves steal more than 1,000 items from museum's collection in 'brazen' heist

Thieves have stolen more than 1,000 items from a museum’s collection in California, including jewellery, carvings and Native American artefacts.

The burglary took place at an off-site storage facility holding items for the Oakland Museum of California (OMCA) on 15 October.

A neckpiece by Florence Resnikoff was also taken. Pic: Leopold Macaya/Oakland Museum of California/AP
Image:
A neckpiece by Florence Resnikoff was also taken. Pic: Leopold Macaya/Oakland Museum of California/AP

The museum’s director said on Thursday details about the incident were being made public because the items might show up at flea markets, pawn shops and antique stores.

“The theft that occurred represents a brazen act that robs the public of our state’s cultural heritage,” said Lori Fogarty.

“They’re not just a loss to the museum. They’re a loss to the public, to our community and we’re hoping our community can help us bring them home.”

She also said she believed it was an opportunistic crime, rather than a targeted raid.

“We think the thieves found a way to enter the building, and they grabbed what they could easily find and snatch and get out of the building with,” she said.

Oakland Museum of California. Pic: Leopold Macaya/Oakland Museum of California/AP
Image:
Oakland Museum of California. Pic: Leopold Macaya/Oakland Museum of California/AP

A metal neckpiece by the late artist Florence Resnikoff, scrimshaw walrus tusks and Native American baskets were taken, with the thieves also making off with historic memorabilia like pins and sporting items.

Experts believe some items may have already been sold.

John Romero, a retired police captain, told the Los Angeles Times he expects detectives are looking at resale platforms such as Craigslist and Ebay, as well as networks specialising in historic or collectable goods.

“These people are interested in fast cash, not the full appraisal value,” he said. “They need to get rid of it quickly.”

Oakland Police Department is working with a specialist art crime unit of the FBI to track down the items.

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The OMCA’s mission is to document the art, history and natural environment of the Golden State.

Its collection carries works by famous Californian artists from the 18th century to present day.

The theft at the OMCA took place four days before the brazen jewellery heist at the Louvre museum in France.

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Suspects in Louvre robbery ‘partially confessed’

Thieves broke into the world-famous Paris museum while it was open to visitors on 19 October and made off with several Napoleonic crown jewels.

Authorities have made five arrests but the stolen items have not yet been recovered.

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LSU interim AD given full authority for football hire

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LSU interim AD given full authority for football hire

LSU interim athletic director Verge Ausberry will have full authority to hire the Tigers’ next football coach, and he told reporters Friday that a search committee has already been formed to identify Brian Kelly’s replacement.

Ausberry, a former LSU linebacker who has been connected to the university for more than 30 years, is now leading the athletics department after former athletics director Scott Woodward and the school mutually agreed to part ways Thursday.

“We’re going to hire the best football coach there is,” Ausberry said in a news conference Friday in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. “That’s our job. We are not going to let this program fail. LSU has to be in the playoffs every year in football. There’s 12 teams that make it. It’s going to expand here. We have to be one of those teams at LSU. No substitute.”

Woodward’s departure came a day after Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry told reporters that Woodward wouldn’t be involved in hiring Kelly’s replacement, saying he’d rather let President Donald Trump do it.

The Tigers fired Kelly on Sunday, a day after they lost to Texas A&M 49-25 at home to drop to 5-3.

While some have suggested that the political controversy surrounding the LSU athletics department shakeup might scare away some potential candidates, Ausberry was confident the Tigers will find the right coach.

“We’re LSU,” Ausberry said. “This place is not broken. The athletic department is not broken. We win.”

Ausberry, the executive deputy athletic director under Woodward, is a member of the search committee, along with LSU Board of Supervisors chairman Scott Ballard and other board members and donors.

The Board of Supervisors is scheduled to select the next LSU president on Tuesday, but Ballard told reporters that wouldn’t affect the search for a new football coach.

McNeese State President Wade Rousse, University of Alabama Provost James Dalton and former University of Arizona President Robert Robbins are finalists for the position.

“We’re not slowing down for that,” Ballard said. “Verge is going to move forward and knows what he needs to do. But, depending on how that works out and when the new president starts, the new president will absolutely have input and hopefully hit the ground running.”

Landry criticized Woodward for agreeing to a 10-year, $95 million contract with Kelly that included incentives and which left LSU on the hook for a $54 million buyout under the terms of the deal.

In a statement Monday, Woodward said the school would “continue to negotiate his separation and will work toward a path that is better for both parties.”

Landry held a meeting at the governor’s mansion Sunday night to discuss the legalities of firing Kelly and who would pay his hefty buyout.

In his news conference at the state capitol in Baton Rouge on Wednesday, Landry suggested that LSU’s new football coach would have a merit-based contract that wouldn’t include a massive buyout. Ausberry said he was told to find the best coach and not worry about the contract’s parameters.

Woodward, who had been LSU’s athletics director since 2019, is owed a buyout of more than $6 million, sources told ESPN.

“The governor had a right to be concerned and we’re working towards solutions,” Board of Supervisors member John Carmouche told reporters Friday. “Everything’s on the table. But let me make it clear: The state has never, and taxpayers have never paid for a coach and never will.”

More than anything, Ausberry said LSU has to get its football program back on track. He walked the field during the third and fourth quarters of last week’s game and saw that Tiger Stadium was half empty.

“It’s not a good thing,” Ausberry said. “[Former Ohio State football coach] Woody Hayes always said the worst word in the dictionary was ‘apathy.’ This program cannot have apathy, in no way or means. We have to win. We have to be successful.”

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Jackson prevails in HBCU coaching clash vs. Vick

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Jackson prevails in HBCU coaching clash vs. Vick

PHILADELPHIA — Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson shared an affectionate embrace at midfield — Jackson pulled a hood over his mouth to hide his message to Vick — after a game at the same NFL stadium they called home for five years together as teammates with the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Pro Bowl players are now improbably linked as HBCU coaches, taking a career path that would have shocked Vick and Jackson when they each shined in the NFL.

“I never thought I’d look across the field and watch him coach,” Vick said. “I know vice versa for him. It was just a really cool moment, a surreal moment. You just never know what life is going to put in front of you.”

Jackson got the better of Vick in their first meeting as historically Black college coaches, thanks in large part to Amir Anderson‘s blocked punt for a score that sent Delaware State to a 27-20 win over Norfolk State on Thursday night.

This was no ordinary regular-season win. Jackson had the game circled on his office schedule, and the Hornets carried him off the field on their shoulders as if they had just won a Super Bowl, an appreciation of the win and how — much like Vick — he has raised the profile of HBCU programs.

“I’m just proud of, man, both of us,” Jackson said. “We’re in a position where we’re inspiring, changing young men’s lives at HBCUs. Man, it don’t get no better than that.”

Kaiden Bennett threw a 24-yard TD pass to Tahmir Ellis for the Hornets, and James Jones scored on a 76-yard run in the fourth quarter to seal the latest conference win for Jackson’s team.

Vick and Jackson were the signature attractions for each program headed into a rare nationally televised weeknight game for HBCU programs at an NFL stadium.

Both players keyed the Eagles’ run to the 2010 NFC East championship, where a banner was raised at the top of Lincoln Financial Field. Vick, the strong-armed, left-handed QB, and Jackson electrified the NFL that season when they connected on an 88-yard touchdown pass against Washington and a 91-yarder against Dallas to help both players earn Pro Bowl nods.

“Man, just the energy when I walked on the field, smelling the grass, it just went through my veins,” Jackson said.

Jackson, who won a Super Bowl with the Rams and retired after the 2022 season, made the pitch to move the game from campus to Philadelphia. Former NFL stars Hugh Douglas, Marshawn Lynch and Cam Newton, and Eagles defensive end Brandon Graham were at the Linc, and thousands of fans — more than each program would average at a home game — waited out some early rain before Delaware State gave them a jolt.

Norfolk State led 6-3 — the good times started when Otto Kuhns hit JJ Evans for a dynamite 13-yard score — when it punted deep in its own territory. Anderson got a hand on the punt and scooped the ball in the end zone for a 10-6 lead that Delaware State took into halftime.

Kuhns and Evans broke out that old Vick-to-Jackson dynamic on a 70-yard score that pulled the Spartans to 19-13 late in the fourth. Kuhns threw for 311 yards and three touchdowns, and Evans finished with five catches for 124 yards. DreSean Kendrick had nine catches for 112 yards.

“Having a chance to work with guys like JJ, guy like DreSean, guys in that locker room, being part of that HBCU culture is extremely cool,” Vick said. “I look forward to better days.”

Patrick Fisher-Butler kicked field goals of 30 and 26 yards for the Hornets (6-3, 2-0 Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference).

With emotions perhaps charged playing in front of a big crowd under the lights, the teams got into a scuffle at the end of the third, and Delaware State offensive lineman Isaiah Cook was ejected for throwing a punch.

Jackson’s and Vick’s missions are clear — use their celebrity, connections, and football smarts to resuscitate two long-suffering programs in the HBCU community much in the way Deion Sanders did at Jackson State on his way to a Power Four program at Colorado.

The 45-year-old Vick, who starred in college at Virginia Tech and was a four-time Pro Bowler in 13 NFL seasons, is off to a rocky start in his rookie season.

Norfolk State, with an enrollment of about 5,100 students, is 1-8 and has lost seven straight games. Vick recently fired some assistant defensive coaches as he tries to revive a Spartans’ program that has made only one playoff appearance since moving to FCS in 1997.

Jackson has orchestrated a rapid turnaround at Delaware State, with an enrollment of about 6,500 students, that already includes its first conference win since 2022. The Hornets beat rival North Carolina Central 35-26 last week for their first win in Durham since 1977.

“We had [eight] games before this, and every game, it was hard not to think about this game,” Jackson said.

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