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Do you want to believe that New York City is in an urban doom cycle?

Its easy if you just ignore indisputable facts.

Take major crimes, an NYPD metric thats distorted upward by skyrocketing auto theft even as the crimes we fear most murder, shootings, and rape continue to ebb lower from last years totals.

Surprise! Murders are on track to be 40% fewer this year than they were in crime-busting Rudy Giulianis last two years as mayor when they were 673 and 649 respectively.

At the midpoint of 2023, weve had 193 murders, on track for a total of around 400 down from 488 in 2021 and 438 in 2022.

Ah, but there were only 319 murders in 2019!

True, but nobody foresaw the end of the world in 2010 when murders jumped to 536 over 471 in 2009 even though then-Mayor Michael Bloombergs stop-and-frisk was in full force.

As the late, great Yankees skipper Casey Stengel often said, you can look it up.

Misperceptions of crime do have a rational basis, though: an ever-increasing street disorder that might not kill but threatens us in other ways lawless cyclists, open-air drug use, unchecked shoplifting, and raving maniacs who might or might not come at us with knives.

The sense of a city sprung and lurching, beyond the governments will or ability to rein in, creates a mood where actual violent crime may seem more prevalent than it is.

But the supposed inevitability of urban collapse due to remote work another article of faith among New Yorks dark prophets has no visible basis other than suspect computer models. 

Never mind that sidewalks are packed, subway riderships up and apartments are in more demand than ever were doomed!

A recent, endlessly cited paper titled Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse by three learned scholars Arpit Gupta of NYU and Vrinda Mittal and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh of Columbia University declared that fewer employees working in offices portend the collapse of property values which in turn portends the collapse of the municipal treasury and, by implication, the end of life on earth as we know it.

The portrayal of a city in its death throes casts a destructive damper on the Big Apple as it continues its fitful recovery from the COVID pandemic.

Dystopian claims take on an aura of unchallengeable truth for those impressed with mathematical equations unintelligible to anyone without a Ph. D.

Who could argue with them?

Well, maybe anybody who ever got a sunburn after a computer model warned of downpours.

The authors are great with numbers but out of touch with Manhattan real-estate reality.

For starters, they rely on Kastle Systems, a security-services provider, to quantify todays supposedly paltry physical office presence a mere 50%, Kastle says. 

But Kastles survey has been widely debunked for its inadequate, worst-case sample.

It covers mostly second-tier office buildings but not the superior buildings owned by the citys 10 largest landlords such as SL Green, Vornado Realty Trust, and Related Companies.

Those so-called Class-A and A-plus properties are the heart of Manhattans half-billion-square-foot office inventory.

Theyre much more than half full because theyre leased to companies that require the most office attendance financial institutions and law firms. 

The Real Estate Board of New York and the Partnership for New York City report considerably higher occupancy than Kastles up to 90% in some premier locations.

But theyd undercut Apocalypse right at the starting gate. 

Sure, commercial landlords are under pressure.

Owners of some older buildings could face bankruptcy.

But even if the overall value of New York City office locations falls 43.9% by 2029 an Apocalypse projection shared by no other analysis would it be the end of the world for the city as a whole?

Maybe it would if there were no actual people involved such as elected officials, landlords, other business leaders, and people just sick of working remotely to arrest the decline. 

Just as Tom Hanks as Capt. Chesley Sullenberger shredded investigators attempt to blame him for the crash computers showed could have been avoided Lets get serious you have not taken into account the human factor so does Apocalypse fall apart the moment whats now called human agency is added. 

Maybe more employees will come back to offices a trend thats gaining traction as bosses read them the riot act.

Landlords might find that they need as much space as before even if employees only come in three or four days a week.

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Maybe owners will find ways to convert more office buildings to other uses than is currently thought possible.

Maybe another Wall Street boom will impel more companies to expand, as private equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice just did by doubling its square footage in a move to 550 Madison Ave.

The assumption of shrunken tax revenue is based on the notion that buildings will lose value due to remote work.

But will they?

SL Green just sold a 49% share of 245 Park Ave. to Japans Mori Trust in a deal that values the nearly 60-year-old property at $2 billion.

Thats hardly a catastrophic plunge from the towers last sale price of $2.2 billion in 2017 when the market was at its peak.

Comptroller Brad Lander reported last week to some surprise that office-building values actually increased from 2021 to 2022 to 97% of pre-pandemic levels.

He wrote that even if office values were to fall by 40%, it would cost the city no more than $1.1 billion in annual property tax revenue by 2027 a mere 3% of all property tax collections, only 1% of the overall budget and well within the range in which tax revenues can ordinarily vary.

For all its intimidating graphs and equations, Apocalypse works the same sensationalist street as alarmist, headline-grabbing forecasts by credentialed experts that turned out to be bogus.

There was no population bomb that caused global famine as foreseen by Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne Howland Ehrlich in 1968; no Great Depression of 1990 as predicted by best-selling economist Ravi Batra in 1987; and no World War III with Japan as envisioned by geopolitical analysts George Friedman and Meredith LeBard 

Therell be no real estate apocalypse, either. 

Hold the taps for New York City, psychos, and all.

Theres nothing certain about our future, of course.

But one day well look back on the Doom Loop and marvel that it panicked so many of us who are glad to be here and plan to stay.

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US looks to grab $7.1M in crypto from oil and gas investment scam

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US looks to grab .1M in crypto from oil and gas investment scam

US looks to grab .1M in crypto from oil and gas investment scam

Federal prosecutors in Seattle are looking to win forfeiture of millions worth of crypto tied to an investment scheme in the hope of distributing it to victims.

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Rows of decomposing bodies that haven’t been buried because of fierce fighting in Syrian city

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Rows of decomposing bodies that haven't been buried because of fierce fighting in Syrian city

The smell hit us before we turned the corner into the backyard of Sweida City’s main hospital.

Neatly laid out in lines were rows of white body bags: some of the victims of the vicious bloodletting which the mainly-Druze city has suffered over the past week.

There are more than 90 corpses in the yard, now badly decomposing in the heat.

They are still picking up bodies from the hospital’s front garden as we arrive.

They say they have been unable to bury them because of the fierce fighting around the Syrian city.

Body bags
Image:
There are dozens of corpses in the hospital yard, now badly decomposing in the heat

Most of the dead here are unidentified and will be buried in a mass grave near the hospital in the hope that a full investigation will be launched in less turbulent times.

Inside the hospital, we’re taken through darkened corridors powered by a generator. The electricity and internet in the city and the surrounding villages are not working.

More on Syria

A body being carried outside the hospital

Traumatised patients

Food and water are scarce and the doctors say medical supplies are dwindling. The hospital is in a shockingly dirty state, and many of the people in it are traumatised and frightened.

A Druze fighter in a destroyed hospital corridor
Image:
A Druze fighter in a destroyed hospital corridor

Dr Obeida Abu Fakher, who is the head of resident doctors, told us that the lack of medical supplies and poor hygiene were now threatening the condition of those saved in emergency operations, some carried out along hospital corridors because the operating rooms were full.

“I think you can smell the bad smell coming from the wound?” Dr Fakher says to us, as another medic delicately replaces the bandage on a young man’s leg.

“This is a very big problem because all the patients we treated in the operations rooms are now (getting infected) and risk dying right here.”

An injured father and son
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An injured father and son in hospital

The wards are packed with the civilian victims caught up in Syria’s complex tribal and political violence – the worst since the toppling of the country’s dictator Bashar al Assad by fighters backed by Turkey and led by former Islamist Ahmed al Sharaa.

Among the victims is 21-year-old Hajar, who was nine months pregnant with her first baby when she was shot through both legs.

Medics managed to save her life but not her baby – a victim of this brutal outbreak of violence before even being born.

A pregnant woman with Sky's Alex Crawford
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Doctors managed to save Hajar’s life but not her baby

A male nurse openly weeps in the corner of the ward where Hajar is laying immobile on a dirty hospital bed. Hajar’s bandages hold together her shattered legs and there’s blood still caked on her feet.

“She needs specialist operations which we cannot do right now,” a doctor explains.

An elderly woman in hospital

Hajar is just one of the many casualties among the dozens crammed in this hospital, as well as the tens of thousands of others affected by what’s happened over the past 10 days of brutality in Sweida.

The UN estimates nearly 130,000 people have fled their homes. The death toll is still being calculated but is thought to be more than a thousand so far.

Men in the hospital

We have driven through multiple Druze checkpoints to get here. The Druze-dominated area is extremely edgy now and bunkered down behind sand chicanes and armed barricades.

Read more from Sky News:
Homes burning after mass pillaging in city
Who are the Druze and who are they fighting in Syria?

Druze fighter with flag
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A Druze fighter with a flag representing the Druze faith

The cycle of tit-for-tat kidnappings and revenge attacks between Druze and Arab Bedoin tribes in the city quickly spiralled into an international crisis when witnesses said some government forces sent in as peacekeepers went on to join Bedoin tribes in the killing spree and robbing of the Druze minority.

Two old men in hospital

Israeli forces, who had warned against any of the Syrian army operating in the area, intervened with airstrikes, killing hundreds of troops as well as civilians.

It was an act of aggression which the new Syrian president would later describe as pushing the country into a “dangerous phase” and threatening its stability.

A shelled ambulance in Syria
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An ambulance that was severely damaged by shelling

Days of anarchy

The Israeli bombings forced the government troops to withdraw and, in their absence, Druze militia demanding autonomy from Damascus, embarked on a rash of revenge attacks and kidnappings.

Days of anarchy followed with thousands of Arab fighters including Islamic extremists massing on the area, pillaging and looting mainly Druze homes and businesses and engaging in pitched battles with Druze militia as well as civilians defending their homes and families.

A young man in the hospital
A man in the hospital

Shocking but mostly unverified social media posts showing executions and beheadings from both Druze and Arab accounts have fuelled the fear and fighting.

There are misinformation and disinformation propaganda campaigns – many by Islamists – which are inciting the violence and cementing divisions.

Body bags outside the hospital

The beleaguered new Syrian leader thanked America and the UAE for brokering a ceasefire – but it is shaky and in its infancy, and there’s a massive trust deficit all round which it is tentatively plastering.

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This is so much more than a bloody sectarian crisis – and comes at a time when Syria is emerging from more than a decade of civil war and is economically broken.

The crisis is complex, multi-layered and drawing in others.

Anadolu Agency quoted the Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan as warning that any attempt to divide Syria will be viewed as a threat to Turkish national security and lead to direct Turkish intervention.

These are words that will chill the many millions of Syrians desperate for peace.

:: Alex Crawford reports from Syria with camera operator Garwen McLuckie, specialist producer Chris Cunningham and Syrian producers Mahmoud Mosa and Ahmed Rahhal.

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More than 100 people die of hunger in Gaza, including 80 children, say Palestinian officials

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More than 100 people die of hunger in Gaza, including 80 children, say Palestinian officials

For the first time since the war in Gaza began in October 2023, Palestinian officials have said that dozens of people are dying of hunger.

At least 101 people are known to have died of malnutrition during the conflict, including 80 children, most of them in recent weeks, according to officials.

United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres has said malnourishment is soaring and starvation is knocking on every door in Gaza, describing the situation as a “horror show”.

Palestinians gather to receive food from a charity kitchen, amid a hunger crisis, in Gaza.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Palestinians gather to receive food from a charity kitchen, amid a hunger crisis in Gaza. Pic: Reuters

Latest updates on the Middle East

Israel controls all supplies entering Gaza and has denied it is responsible for food shortages.

Some food stocks in the Palestinian territory have run out since Israel cut off all supplies in March and then lifted the blockade in May with new measures it said were needed to prevent aid from being diverted to militant groups.

Israel has blamed the UN for failing to protect aid it says is stolen by Hamas and other groups. The fighters deny stealing it.

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‘There is nothing left’

The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) has said its aid stocks are completely depleted in Gaza and some of its staff are starving, with the organisation accusing Israel of paralysing its work.

“Our last tent, our last food parcel, our last relief items have been distributed. There is nothing left,” said Jan Egeland, the council’s secretary-general.

The NRC said that for the last 145 days, it has not been able to get hundreds of truckloads of tents, water, sanitation, food and education materials into Gaza.

COGAT, the Israeli military aid coordination agency, and Israeli authorities did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Israel denies accusations it is preventing aid from reaching Gaza.

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Israel wants to ‘finish off’ Gaza

Aid workers ‘fainting due to hunger’

The NRC comments echo those made earlier by the head of the UN Palestinian Refugee Agency (UNRWA), who said doctors and aid workers have been fainting on duty due to hunger and exhaustion.

“Caretakers, including UNRWA colleagues in Gaza, are also in need of care now. Doctors, nurses, journalists, humanitarians, among them. UNRWA staff are hungry. Many are now fainting due to hunger and exhaustion while performing their duties,” UNRWA commissioner general Philippe Lazzarini said.

He warned that seeking food has become “as deadly as the bombardments”, describing the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation aid distribution scheme as a “sadistic death trap”.

“This cannot be our new norm, humanitarian assistance is not the job of mercenaries,” he added.

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Lammy: I hope and pray for Gaza ceasefire soon

The UK, and several other countries, have condemned the current aid delivery model, backed by the Israeli and American governments, which has reportedly resulted in Israeli troops firing on Palestinian civilians in search of food on multiple occasions.

More than 800 people have reportedly been killed in recent weeks trying to reach food, mostly in shootings by Israeli soldiers posted near distribution centres.

Read more:
Gaza food situation ‘worst it’s ever been’, charity says
Israel launches ground assault on central Gazan city

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IDF enters this Gaza city for first time – why?

Israel ‘risking more civilian deaths’

Meanwhile, Israeli displacement orders followed by intensive attacks on the central Gaza city of Deir al Balah will lead to further civilian deaths, the head of the UN human rights office has said.

On Monday, Israeli tanks pushed into southern and eastern districts of the city for the first time after Israel issued an evacuation order.

The area is packed with Palestinians who have been displaced during the war in the coastal territory, and Israeli sources said the military believes hostages may be held there.

Now, Volker Turk, the head of the UN Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights, has said: “It seemed the nightmare couldn’t possibly get worse.

“And yet it does… given the concentration of civilians in the area, and the means and methods of warfare employed by Israel until now, the risks of unlawful killings and other serious violations of international humanitarian law are extremely high.”

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Gazan doctor being held

Tents sheltering displaced people ‘hit by strikes’

Also, at least 20 people were killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza on Tuesday, according to officials in the Hamas-run strip.

Among them were 12 who died when tents sheltering displaced people in the Shati refugee camp on the western side of Gaza City were hit, according to Shifa Hospital, which treated casualties.

The dead included three women and three children, said hospital director Dr Mohamed Abu Selmiyah, who added that 38 other Palestinians were injured.

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And eight people were killed in an overnight strike that hit crowds of people waiting for aid trucks in Gaza City, according to hospitals. The Palestinian Red Crescent said at least 118 people were wounded.

Israel blames the deaths of Palestinian civilians on Hamas because the militants operate in densely populated areas. It accuses the group of prolonging the war because Hamas has not accepted Israel’s terms for a ceasefire – including calls to give up power and disarm.

Health officials say Israeli forces have killed almost 60,000 Palestinians in airstrikes, shelling and shooting since launching their assault on Gaza in response to Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, when 1,200 people were killed and 251 others taken hostage.

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