Ukraine war is at a critical moment – and Zelenskyy needs some good news

Published

2 years ago

July 8, 2023

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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Ukrainian military forces have proven incredibly resilient against what should – at least on paper – have been a superior Russian force.

But one month on from the start of a much-anticipated “spring” counteroffensive, there has been limited positive news from Kyiv, plenty of Russian reporting of significant enemy losses, and no evidence of a breakthrough.

Zelenskyy marks 500 days of war – live updates

With both sides embroiled in a highly attritional phase of the war, is Ukraine facing the brutal reality they do not have the resources to overcome established Russian defences, or is patience a vital component of its strategy?

Military offensives usually require detailed planning, but success is usually achieved by seizing the initiative, exploiting fleeting opportunities to capitalise on enemy weakness or misjudgement, and gaining momentum before the enemy has the chance to consolidate.

However, Ukraine is heavily dependent on the West for weapons and ammunition. Mr Zelenskyy needed advanced weaponry from the West to support the Ukrainian counteroffensive – such as modern tanks, long-range precision strike and air defence capability.

But it took time for this equipment to arrive, and for crucial operational training to be completed.

Zelenskyy created ‘air of expectation’

Unlike in the northeast of Ukraine (Kharkiv) where a surprise offensive last September reclaimed around 12,000 square kilometres of previously Russian-occupied territory in a very short period, on this occasion Russia has had months of advance notice to prepare its defences.

Mr Zelenskyy has – perhaps inadvertently – created an “air of expectation” in the West of a swift and decisive victory.

Russia has established hundreds of kilometres of layered defences, including anti-tank ditches, “dragon’s teeth” defensive barricades, and mines.

These are all surmountable, but creating clear corridors through minefields simply funnels attacking forces into predictable channels, which can have deadly consequences. As chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff General Mark Milley advised, the Ukrainian offensive will be “slow, and it will be bloody”.

Ukraine must avoid war of attrition

In the battle for Bakhmut, Russian forces on offence were suffering up to 10 times the casualties of the Ukrainian defenders. But even with Western support, in this initial phase of the counteroffensive Ukraine will expect to suffer three times the casualties of the Russian forces. This will present a huge challenge to Ukrainian morale.

And, Ukraine must avoid an enduring war of attrition that will – eventually – favour the larger Russian force.

Meanwhile, the enemy also “has a vote”, as former US defence secretary James Mattis likes to say, and Russia will not sit back and let Ukraine seize the initiative.

Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” remains focused on the Donbas, and there are reports suggesting thousands of Russian forces are massing ready for an attack in the Kreminna area.

This would be a vital steppingstone for Russia to seizing the Donbas, and would create a conundrum for Ukraine: divert forces to protect the Donbas, or capitalise on Russia’s dilution of its defensive capability in the south.

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The counteroffensive is a critical moment for Ukraine. Western support is not unlimited, there are limited supplies of high-tech weapons available, and domestic pressures on Western governments have not abated.

Ukraine needs to find a way to break through the Russian minefields, and fast. Cluster munitions could be the ideal solution – the US has large stockpiles, and they do not require time-consuming training.

However, cluster munitions are banned by 120 countries (including the UK). As some of them don’t detonate on impact, they leave large quantities of unexploded bombs, which present a major threat to civilians.

Over 98% of the injuries caused by cluster munitions are to civilian populations in the decades after their use.

However, neither the US nor Ukraine are signatories to the ban, and Ukraine desperately needs help.

Further, the outcome of the US presidential elections next year might also impact Western support for Ukraine, so Mr Zelenskyy will know this year’s counteroffensive could be crucial to the outcome of the war.

Ukrainian success will probably be defined by territory liberated rather than Russian forces destroyed, but Ukraine has yet to achieve momentum, and risks losing the initiative.

Only Mr Zelenskyy and his leadership team will know if their strategy is working, and patience may yet prove a virtue. Ukraine has yet to commit the bulk of its forces. If and when a breakthrough is achieved, it could prove decisive.

But Ukraine faces a huge challenge, and success is not a foregone conclusion.

World

Pope ‘deeply saddened’ by deaths at sole Catholic church in Gaza after Israeli strike

Published

4 hours ago

July 17, 2025

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Pope 'deeply saddened' by deaths at sole Catholic church in Gaza after Israeli strike

The Pope has said he is “deeply saddened” by the deaths of three people in an Israeli strike on the only Catholic church in Gaza.

A further nine people were wounded when the Gaza’s Holy Family Church was hit, the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem said in a statement.

“On behalf of the entire Church of the Holy Land, we extend our deepest condolences to the bereaved families, and from here, we offer our prayers for the swift and full recovery of the wounded,” the statement reads.

“The Latin Patriarchate strongly condemns this tragedy and this targeting of innocent civilians and of a sacred place.

“However, this tragedy is not greater or more terrible than the many others that have befallen Gaza.”

Parish priest Father Gabriele Romanelli, an Argentinian who used to regularly update the late Pope Francis about the conflict in Gaza, was lightly injured in the attack.

In a telegram for the victims, Pope Leo said he was “deeply saddened” and called for “an immediate ceasefire”.

The Pope expressed his “profound hope for dialogue, reconciliation and enduring peace in the region,” according to the telegram, which was signed by the Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin.

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, told the Vatican News website that the church was shelled by a tank.

“What we know for sure is that a tank, the IDF says by mistake, but we are not sure about this, they hit the Church directly, the Church of the Holy Family, the Latin Church”, he said

The church was sheltering both Christians and Muslims, including a number of children with disabilities, according to Fadel Naem, acting director of Al-Ahli Hospital, which received the wounded.

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said it was “aware of reports regarding damage caused to the Holy Family Church in Gaza City and casualties at the scene. The circumstances of the incident are under review”.

“The IDF makes every feasible effort to mitigate harm to civilians and civilian structures, including religious sites,
and regrets any damage caused to them,” the statement added.

Israel’s foreign ministry said in a statement on X that the results of the investigation would be published.

It also said the country did not target churches or religious sites and regretted harm to them or civilians.

The previous pope, Francis, spoke almost daily with Gaza church. In the last 18 months of his life, Francis would often call the church in the Gaza Strip to see how people huddled inside were coping with a devastating war.

At least 20 more people were killed on Thursday by Israeli attacks across the besieged enclave, medics said.

Throughout the 21-month war, more than 58,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israel’s military campaign, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.

Israel launched a retaliatory campaign against Hamas following the militant group’s 7 October 2023 attacks, during which 1,200 people were killed and about 250 taken hostage.

World

Syria’s president vows to protect Druze population after Israel airstrikes – as new ceasefire begins

Published

4 hours ago

July 17, 2025

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Syria's president vows to protect Druze population after Israel airstrikes - as new ceasefire begins

Syria’s president has said protecting the rights of the Druze population is “our priority” after Israel warned it would destroy forces attacking the minority.

In a televised statement early today, Ahmed al Sharaa told the Druze “we reject any attempt to drag you into hands of an external party”.

Several hundred people have reportedly been killed this week in the south of Syria in violence involving local fighters, government authorities and Bedouin tribes.

Following the president’s announcement and a ceasefire agreement, Syrian government forces on Thursday largely withdrew from the volatile southern province of Sweida.

Under the terms of the agreement, Druze factions and clerics have been appointed to maintain internal security.

As the violence escalated in Sweida, Israel launched airstrikes, including attacks on Wednesday on the defence ministry in Damascus and a target near the presidential palace.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has pledged to “act resolutely against any terrorist threat on its borders”.

The Druze population follow an offshoot of Islam and are estimated to number about one million, spread between Syria, Lebanon and Israel.

Sharaa – Syria’s interim leader after President Assad fled last year – gave a televised statement on Wednesday telling the Druze “we reject any attempt to drag you into hands of an external party”.

“We are not among those who fear the war,” he added.

“We have spent our lives facing challenges and defending our people, but we have put the interests of the Syrians before chaos and destruction,” said the president.

He also claimed Israel has “consistently targeted our stability and created discord among us since the fall of the former regime”.

Israel has accused the Syrian regime of being barely disguised jihadists – despite warming ties with Western countries such as the UK and US.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said, as of Wednesday morning, more than 300 people had been killed in the flare-up of violence.

Around 1,000 Druze people broke through a fence into southern Syria on Wednesday in a bid to help, according to The Times of Israel.

Prime Minister Netanyahu urged people not to cross into Syria and Israeli military chief of staff Eyal Zamir warned they would not “allow southern Syria to become a terror stronghold”.

The UN Security Council will discuss the situation today, despite the US secretary of state saying yesterday that America had brokered an end to the violence.

“We have engaged all the parties involved in the clashes in Syria,” Marco Rubio said on social media.

“We have agreed on specific steps that will bring this troubling and horrifying situation to an end tonight.”

The intervention appeared to have an immediate effect.

The situation was calm on Thursday morning, according to Reuters sources in the area.

World

Buddhist monk sex scandal grips Thailand as woman arrested

Published

10 hours ago

July 17, 2025

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Buddhist monk sex scandal grips Thailand as woman arrested

A sex scandal has rocked Thailand’s Buddhist clergy after a woman allegedly enticed a string of monks into having sex with her and then blackmailed them.

At least nine abbots and senior monks have been disrobed and cast out of the monkhood, the Royal Thai Police Central Investigation Bureau said.

Wilawan Emsawat, in her mid-30s, is accused of enticing senior monks into having sex with her and then pressuring them into making large payments to cover it up.

Thai monks are largely members of the Theravada sect, which requires them to be celibate and refrain from even touching a woman.

Several monks transferred large amounts of money after Wilawan initiated romantic relationships with them, police said -her bank accounts received around 385 million baht (£8.8m) in the past three years, with most of that spent on gambling websites.

Wilawan was arrested at her home in Nonthaburi province, north of the capital Bangkok, on charges including extortion, money laundering and receiving stolen goods.

Thai media reported a search of her mobile phones revealed tens of thousands of photos and videos, as well as numerous chat logs indicating intimacy with several monks, many of which could be used for blackmail.

An investigation was launched last month after an abbot of a famous temple in Bangkok abruptly left the monkhood.

He had allegedly been blackmailed by Wilawan over their romantic relationship, investigators found.

She told the monk she was pregnant and asked him to pay her 7.2 million baht (£165,000), Jaroonkiat Pankaew, a Central Investigation Bureau deputy commissioner, said at a news conference in Bangkok on Tuesday.

Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai ordered authorities to review and consider tightening existing laws related to monks and temples, especially the transparency of temple finances, to restore faith in Buddhism, government spokesperson Jirayu Houngsub said on Tuesday.

The Central Investigation Bureau has set up a Facebook page for people to report monks who misbehave, Mr Jaroonkiat said.

“We will investigate monks across the country,” he said. “I believe that the ripple effects of this investigation will lead to a lot of changes.”