Adam Boulton: Why Sunak and Biden are struggling to keep spark of special relationship alive
Monday will mark the sixth meeting between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden – and their seventh encounter in all as both were at official functions for the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II last September during the Liz Truss interregnum.
The president did not attend the King’s Coronation – that is normal practice. None of his predecessors did either.
Yet, in this heavily scrutinised social media age, he is anxious to pay his respects to King Charles III, head of state to head of state.
His visit to Windsor Castle on Monday will be the highlight of his brief stay in the UK.
No joint press conference or major public statement is planned with either the prime minister or the King.
Perhaps this is just as well since Biden has struggled with Sunak’s name in the past and called him “Mr President” the last time they met.
The two administrations issued unsurprising statements in advance of the Sunak-Biden date.
Number 10 said it “reflects the strong relationship between the US and the UK”.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre explained the president is coming to London “to further strengthen the close relationship between our two nations”.
What seems to irk some British political leaders is that the US is treating the UK as it treats its other major allies in Europe. They don’t feel anything “special” about it.
In the last few days the former cabinet minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has been muttering about “the decayed state of the special relationship” after the failed candidacy of Defence Secretary Ben Wallace to be the next secretary general of NATO and the emergence of the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as the favourite.
For all the neurotic energy with which those involved in British politics scrutinise transatlantic relations, there is little special about Biden’s visit here.
Mr Sunak and Mr Biden in the Oval Office last month
Nordic natter
The US president usually slots in some bi-lateral business alongside his presence at multi-national conferences and celebrations.
The main item on Biden’s five-day European swing is the Ukraine-urgent NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Sunak is missing PMQs for a second week running to be there too.
Biden’s last stop before flying home on Thursday will be Helsinki, Finland, for a “US-Nordic leaders summit”.
Finland recently abandoned neutrality to join NATO. Sweden is trying to do the same but is being blocked by Turkey. Both countries have long land borders with Russia.
At their meeting in Washington DC in advance of the summits, Biden told the Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson that he “is anxiously looking forward to your membership”.
With some support from his fellow strongman leader Viktor Orban of Hungary, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is vetoing Sweden’s bid, claiming the country is a haven for Kurdish separatists.
Ursula von der Leyen is the favourite to take over as NATO’s new leader
Underlining its continuing role as the dominant force in European geopolitics, the US is the only country with significant leverage over Erdogan.
Biden will authorise the supply of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey in exchange for a green light to Sweden. The US Congress is insisting Turkey must blink first.
Sweden will rank with Ukraine as the most vital issue on the agenda in Vilnius, although chances of an immediate breakthrough are being played down.
F-16 diplomacy may also have played a part in Biden’s reluctance to back Wallace for NATO, in spite of appeals from Sunak at their bilateral meeting in the White House last month.
Wallace has been consistently in the lead advocating military support for Ukraine.
The US has been more cautious, even though in material terms it continues to be by far the largest supplier of assistance.
UK forces are not equipped with American-made F-16s.
Wallace still got ahead of US policy when he urged countries which have the fighters to supply them to the Ukrainian war effort and proposed setting up F-16 training programmes for Ukrainian pilots in this country.
Historically, most notably in two world wars, the UK has often found itself asking the US to commit more to a conflict.
The UK has secured the leadership of NATO when the two countries have been most closely in sync. The first secretary general, Lord Hastings Ismay, was Winston Churchill’s military adviser during the Second World War.
In 1984, former foreign secretary Peter Carrington secured the post at the height of the mutual admiration between Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.
Tony Blair had similarly close relations with Bill Clinton when George Robertson took over in 1999, even though the prime minister had successfully leant on the president to send forces to the Balkans.
Now is not such a time.
American disappointment
NATO was set up as a defensive alliance during the period of reconstruction following the Second World War. It currently has 31 member nations.
By convention an American holds the top military post of SACEUR – Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
A European is NATO secretary general, the organisations civilian leader and chief diplomat – subject to American agreement.
With three British secretary generals so far, the UK is already in joint first place with the Netherlands.
Belgium and Italy have had two successful nominations.
Germany, Spain, Denmark and Norway have had one each. All 15 secretary generals have been men.
The pattern of diplomatic traffic was interrupted by the COVID pandemic.
Britain also had to deal with the consequences of leaving the EU: both the perception that it was no longer a reliable ally and America’s disappointment that the UK could no longer be its “bridge” into Europe.
The maverick styles of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss caused further dislocation. Sunak has restored normality successfully and the US has responded.
Sunak met the president when they both took part in meetings of the G20, G7 and the trilateral AUKUS defence summit in California.
Biden also attended events of special importance here such as Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral and the 25th Anniversary of the Good Friday agreement.
He said he went to Belfast “to make sure the Brits didn’t screw around”.
The president gave Sunak full credit for the Windsor Framework. There is no evidence that “Irish” Joe Biden held Ben Wallace’s tours of duty as an Army Officer during the Troubles in Northern Ireland against him.
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NATO vacancy
Biden aside, Wallace has been telling friends for months that current international relations made it most unlikely that he or any other British citizen would get the NATO job this time.
Ms von der Leyen is not yet an official candidate but she fits the bill.
The one year extension given to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg means that her first term in Brussels will be coming to an end just as the NATO vacancy arises.
At just under six years, she was the longest serving German defence minister this century, although some have derided her performance.
She is medically qualified and has seven children. Fluent in French, German and English she has built strong working relationships with leaders including Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron.
There has never been a French secretary general because France has opted in and out of NATO’s central command.
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Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby asked Joe Biden if the special relationship between the UK and US is still in good shape
Ukraine has changed Macron’s view that NATO was “brain dead”. Now he is insisting that the next secretary general must come from an EU member state, as has been the case until now.
By the end of next week it should be clear whether Ms von der Leyen is the runaway frontrunner for NATO or whether she wants a second term leading the European Commission.
A shift in the balance of power in next year’s European Parliament election could call that option into question.
When NATO leaders meet for their celebratory 75th Anniversary Summit in Washington DC over a year from now the war in Ukraine will be in a completely different place from where it is today.
Sweden may have become a NATO member by then. Europe may even be having to make its own plans for a potential second Donald Trump presidency, as Biden and Sunak face difficult elections.
Whatever job she goes for, Ms von der Leyen’s political future will look a lot more certain than theirs.
Looking towards 2024 there is little need to get over-excited about Sunak meeting Biden, again on Monday.
At least 20 people have died after a magnitude 6.3 earthquake in Afghanistan, the Taliban has said.
The tremor was recorded near the city of Mazar-e Sharif, in the northern Balkh province, at around 12.59am on Monday (8.29pm in the UK).
The Taliban Health Ministry added that 320 were injured, while ministry spokesperson Sharfat Zaman said that the numbers of dead and injured might rise.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) has issued an orange alert on its system of quake impacts, and suggested that “significant casualties are likely and the disaster is potentially widespread”.
A rescuer works following an earthquake at an unidentified location in Afghanistan. Pic: Afghan Red Crescent / Reuters
Previous events at that alert level have required a regional or national level response, according to the USGS’s alert system.
Balkh province spokesperson Haji Zaid added that the earthquake destroyed part of the city’s holy shrine, known as the Blue Mosque.
Soldiers dig up debris after an earthquake in Mazar-e Sharif, northern Afghanistan. Pic: Haji Zaid
Damage to the Blue Mosque in Mazar-e Sharif. Pic: Haji Zaid
The United Nations in Afghanistan said on X that it is on the ground assessing needs and delivering aid, and that: “We stand with the affected communities and will provide the necessary support.”
Mazar-e Sharif is the fifth-largest city in Afghanistan, with a population of around 523,000.
Located on two major active fault lines, Afghanistan is particularly vulnerable to earthquakes: More than 1,400 people were killed and at least 3,250 others injured after a magnitude 6.0 earthquake hit the country’s eastern regions in September.
That tremor wiped out villages in the Mazar Dara valley, which Sky’s Asia correspondent Cordelia Lynch visited in October.
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October: Boy recalls being rescued from quake – but losing his brother
In 2015, an earthquake struck northeastern Afghanistan, killing several hundred people in Afghanistan and nearby northern Pakistan.
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Four large earthquakes also struck in the Herat province in 2023, each magnitude 6.3. The Taliban said at the time that at least 2,445 people had died.
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A total of 28 people have died following Hurricane Melissa’s rampage across Jamaica, the government has confirmed.
Melissa, one of the strongest storms on record to make landfall in the Caribbean, brought with it winds of up to 185mph when it hit the island earlier this week.
The Red Cross described it as a “disaster of unprecedented catastrophe”.
Melissa ravaged through Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba.
It weakened by the time it reached Cuba on Wednesday morning but still brought devastation – with houses collapsed and roads blocked.
A statement from the government of Jamaica said it was “deeply saddened to confirm 28 fatalities associated with the passage of Hurricane Melissa”.
It went on: “We extend heartfelt condolences to the families, friends, and communities mourning their loved ones.”
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The confirmation came as the first British repatriation flight was setting off from the island on Saturday evening local time.
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The flight, chartered by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, was for those “unable to leave Jamaica on commercial routes”.
Essential relief supplies are now rolling into some of the hardest hit areas.
Humanitarian aid has arrived and is waiting to be distributed. Pic: AP
The UK government is mobilising an additional £5m in emergency humanitarian funding – on top of £2.5m announced earlier this week – to support the region’s recovery.
This new funding will enable the UK to send humanitarian supplies – including more than 3,000 shelter kits and over 1,500 solar-powered lanterns to help those whose homes have been damaged and those without power.
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The UK is working with the World Food Programme and Red Cross, to ensure emergency relief reaches those who need it most.
At least 25 people died in the southern Haitian coastal town of Petit-Goave after the La Digue river burst its banks as a result of the hurricane, according to the town’s mayor Jean Bertrand Subreme.
Ukrainian soldiers encircled by Russian forces in the key eastern city of Pokrovsk have started surrendering, the defence ministry in Moscow claims.
But Ukraine‘s military has pushed back on the report by the TASS state news agency, saying the situation is “difficult and dynamic”.
Kyiv has also claimed its positions in some districts of Pokrovsk have improved despite its city being infiltrated by Russian troops.
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Ukraine is increasing its number of assault troops in the area, the 7th Rapid Response Corps said on Facebook.
And Ukrainian troops are also working to cut Moscow’s military logistics routes, it added.
The Russian defence ministry also said its forces defeated a team of Ukrainian special forces that headed to Pokrovsk in a bid to prevent Russian forces from advancing further into the city.
‘Footage of Ukrainian troops after surrendering’
It later posted videos of two Ukrainian troops who, it claimed, had surrendered.
The footage showed the men, one dressed in fatigues and the other in a dark green jacket, sat against a wall in a dark room, as they spoke of fierce fighting and encirclement by Russian forces.
The videos’ authenticity could not be independently verified, and there was no immediate public comment from Kyiv on the Russian ministry’s claims.
Ukrainian police officers on patrol in Pokrovsk. File pic: Reuters
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously acknowledged that some Russian units had infiltrated the city. But he maintained that Ukraine is tackling them.
He said Russia had deployed 170,000 troops in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk province, where Pokrovsk is located, in a major offensive to capture the city and claim a big battlefield victory.
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‘Operation to destroy enemy forces’
Ukraine’s army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Saturday the situation in Pokrovsk remained “hardest” for Ukrainian forces, who were trying to push Russian troops out.
But he insisted there was no encirclement or blockade as Moscow has claimed.
“A comprehensive operation to destroy and push out enemy forces from Pokrovsk is ongoing. The main burden lies on the shoulders of the units of the armed forces of Ukraine, particularly UAV operators and assault units,” Mr Syrskyi said.
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Why is Pokrovsk important?
One of Moscow’s key aims has been to take all of Ukraine’s industrial heartland of coal-rich Donbas, which comprises of the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. Kyiv still controls about 10% of Donbas.
Capturing Pokrovsk, which Russian media has dubbed “the gateway to Donetsk”, and Kostiantynivka to its northeast, would give Moscow a platform to drive north towards the two biggest remaining Ukrainian-controlled cities in Donetsk – Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
‘Key Russian fuel pipeline struck’
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military intelligence, known as HUR, has said its forces have hit an important fuel pipeline in the Moscow region that supplies the Russian army.
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In a statement on Telegram, HUR said the operation late on Friday was a “serious blow” to Russia’s military logistics.
HUR said its forces struck the Koltsevoy pipeline, which is 250 miles long and supplies the Russian army with gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from refineries in Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod and Moscow.
The operation, which targeted infrastructure near Ramensky district, destroyed all three fuel lines, HUR said.
The pipeline was capable of transporting up to three million tonnes of jet fuel, 2.8 million tonnes of diesel and 1.6 million tonnes of gasoline annually, HUR said.
Russia ‘targets gas production site’
Also overnight, Russia launched an attack on a gas production site in Poltava, in central Ukraine.
A fire broke out, the local administration said, but no injuries were reported.
Kyiv condemns ‘nuclear terrorism’
Ukraine’s foreign ministry has condemned Russian strikes this week on substations powering some of its nuclear plants.
It accused Russia of carrying out “targeted strikes on such substations” which “bear the hallmarks of nuclear terrorism”.
Elsewhere, a civilian died and 15 more were injured on Saturday morning after Russia struck the Mykolaiv region in southern Ukraine with a ballistic Iskander missile, local official Vitaliy Kim said.
A child was among those hurt in the strike, he added.
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