Monday will mark the sixth meeting between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden – and their seventh encounter in all as both were at official functions for the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II last September during the Liz Truss interregnum.
No joint press conference or major public statement is planned with either the prime minister or the King.
Perhaps this is just as well since Biden has struggled with Sunak’s name in the past and called him “Mr President” the last time they met.
The two administrations issued unsurprising statements in advance of the Sunak-Biden date.
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Number 10 said it “reflects the strong relationship between the US and the UK”.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre explained the president is coming to London “to further strengthen the close relationship between our two nations”.
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What seems to irk some British political leaders is that the US is treating the UK as it treats its other major allies in Europe. They don’t feel anything “special” about it.
For all the neurotic energy with which those involved in British politics scrutinise transatlantic relations, there is little special about Biden’s visit here.
Image: Mr Sunak and Mr Biden in the Oval Office last month
Nordic natter
The US president usually slots in some bi-lateral business alongside his presence at multi-national conferences and celebrations.
The main item on Biden’s five-day European swing is the Ukraine-urgent NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Sunak is missing PMQs for a second week running to be there too.
Biden’s last stop before flying home on Thursday will be Helsinki, Finland, for a “US-Nordic leaders summit”.
Finland recently abandoned neutrality to join NATO. Sweden is trying to do the same but is being blocked by Turkey. Both countries have long land borders with Russia.
At their meeting in Washington DC in advance of the summits, Biden told the Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson that he “is anxiously looking forward to your membership”.
With some support from his fellow strongman leader Viktor Orban of Hungary, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is vetoing Sweden’s bid, claiming the country is a haven for Kurdish separatists.
Image: Ursula von der Leyen is the favourite to take over as NATO’s new leader
Underlining its continuing role as the dominant force in European geopolitics, the US is the only country with significant leverage over Erdogan.
Biden will authorise the supply of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey in exchange for a green light to Sweden. The US Congress is insisting Turkey must blink first.
Sweden will rank with Ukraine as the most vital issue on the agenda in Vilnius, although chances of an immediate breakthrough are being played down.
F-16 diplomacy may also have played a part in Biden’s reluctance to back Wallace for NATO, in spite of appeals from Sunak at their bilateral meeting in the White House last month.
Wallace has been consistently in the lead advocating military support for Ukraine.
The US has been more cautious, even though in material terms it continues to be by far the largest supplier of assistance.
UK forces are not equipped with American-made F-16s.
Historically, most notably in two world wars, the UK has often found itself asking the US to commit more to a conflict.
The UK has secured the leadership of NATO when the two countries have been most closely in sync. The first secretary general, Lord Hastings Ismay, was Winston Churchill’s military adviser during the Second World War.
In 1984, former foreign secretary Peter Carrington secured the post at the height of the mutual admiration between Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.
Tony Blair had similarly close relations with Bill Clinton when George Robertson took over in 1999, even though the prime minister had successfully leant on the president to send forces to the Balkans.
Now is not such a time.
American disappointment
NATO was set up as a defensive alliance during the period of reconstruction following the Second World War. It currently has 31 member nations.
By convention an American holds the top military post of SACEUR – Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
A European is NATO secretary general, the organisations civilian leader and chief diplomat – subject to American agreement.
With three British secretary generals so far, the UK is already in joint first place with the Netherlands.
Belgium and Italy have had two successful nominations.
Germany, Spain, Denmark and Norway have had one each. All 15 secretary generals have been men.
The pattern of diplomatic traffic was interrupted by the COVID pandemic.
Britain also had to deal with the consequences of leaving the EU: both the perception that it was no longer a reliable ally and America’s disappointment that the UK could no longer be its “bridge” into Europe.
The maverick styles of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss caused further dislocation. Sunak has restored normality successfully and the US has responded.
He said he went to Belfast “to make sure the Brits didn’t screw around”.
The president gave Sunak full credit for the Windsor Framework. There is no evidence that “Irish” Joe Biden held Ben Wallace’s tours of duty as an Army Officer during the Troubles in Northern Ireland against him.
Biden aside, Wallace has been telling friends for months that current international relations made it most unlikely that he or any other British citizen would get the NATO job this time.
Ms von der Leyen is not yet an official candidate but she fits the bill.
The one year extension given to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg means that her first term in Brussels will be coming to an end just as the NATO vacancy arises.
At just under six years, she was the longest serving German defence minister this century, although some have derided her performance.
She is medically qualified and has seven children. Fluent in French, German and English she has built strong working relationships with leaders including Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron.
There has never been a French secretary general because France has opted in and out of NATO’s central command.
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3:07
Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby asked Joe Biden if the special relationship between the UK and US is still in good shape
Ukraine has changed Macron’s view that NATO was “brain dead”. Now he is insisting that the next secretary general must come from an EU member state, as has been the case until now.
By the end of next week it should be clear whether Ms von der Leyen is the runaway frontrunner for NATO or whether she wants a second term leading the European Commission.
A shift in the balance of power in next year’s European Parliament election could call that option into question.
When NATO leaders meet for their celebratory 75th Anniversary Summit in Washington DC over a year from now the war in Ukraine will be in a completely different place from where it is today.
Sweden may have become a NATO member by then. Europe may even be having to make its own plans for a potential second Donald Trump presidency, as Biden and Sunak face difficult elections.
Whatever job she goes for, Ms von der Leyen’s political future will look a lot more certain than theirs.
Looking towards 2024 there is little need to get over-excited about Sunak meeting Biden, again on Monday.
The Rohingya refugees didn’t escape danger though.
Right now, violence is at its worst levels in the camps since 2017 and Rohingya people face a particularly cruel new threat – they’re being forced back to fight for the same Myanmar military accused of trying to wipe out their people.
Image: A child at the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar
Militant groups are recruiting Rohingya men in the camps, some at gunpoint, and taking them back to Myanmar to fight for a force that’s losing ground.
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Jaker is just 19.
We’ve changed his name to protect his identity.
He says he was abducted at gunpoint last year by a group of nine men in Cox’s.
They tied his hands with rope he says and took him to the border where he was taken by boat with three other men to fight for the Myanmar military.
“It was heartbreaking,” he told me. “They targeted poor children. The children of wealthy families only avoided it by paying money.”
And he says the impact has been deadly.
“Many of our Rohingya boys, who were taken by force from the camps, were killed in battle.”
Image: Jaker speaks to Sky’s Cordelia Lynch
Image: An aerial view of the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar
The situation in Cox’s is desperate.
People are disillusioned by poverty, violence and the plight of their own people and the civil war they ran from is getting worse.
In Rakhine, just across the border, there’s been a big shift in dynamics.
The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group has all but taken control of the state from the ruling military junta.
Both the military and the AA are accused of committing atrocities against Rohingya Muslims.
And whilst some Rohingya claim they’re being forced into the fray – dragged back to Myanmar from Bangladesh, others are willing to go.
US President Donald Trump has told Gazans to hand over Israeli hostages or “you are dead”.
The threat, made over social media, came hours after the White House confirmed that US officials had broken with tradition to hold direct talks with Hamas.
The US has previously avoided direct contact with the group owing to Washington’s longstanding position not to negotiate with terrorists – with Hamas having been designated as a terrorist group in the US since 1997.
In a press conference on Wednesday, White House press secretary Ms Keavitt said there had been “ongoing talks and discussions” between the US officials and Hamas.
Image: File pic: AP
But she would not be drawn on the substance of the talks – taking place in Doha, Qatar – between US officials and Hamas, but said Israel had been consulted.
Ms Leavitt continued: “Dialogue and talking to people around the world to do what’s in the best interest of the American people, is something that the president has proven is what he believes is a good faith, effort to do what’s right for the American people.”
There are “American lives at stake,” she added.
Adam Boehler, Mr Trump’s pick to be special envoy for hostage affairs, participated in the direct talks with Hamas.
A spokesperson for Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Israel had “expressed to the United States its position regarding direct talks with Hamas”.
Hours later, Mr Trump warned Hamas to hand over Israeli hostages or “it’s over for you” – adding: “This is your last warning”.
Image: Hamas militants on the day of a hostage handover in Gaza in February. Pic: Reuters
On his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump wrote: “Release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered or it is over for you.
“Only sick and twisted people keep bodies and you are sick and twisted. I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say.”
Mr Trump met with freed Israeli hostages on Wednesday, something he referenced in his social media post, before adding: “This is your last warning. For the leadership of Hamas, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance.
“Also, to the people of Gaza, a beautiful future awaits, but not if you hold hostages. If you do, you are dead. Make a smart decision. Release the hostages now, or there will be hell to pay later.”
Israel estimates about 24 living hostages, including American citizen Edan Alexander, and the bodies of at least 35 others, are still believed to be in Gaza.
Image: Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu in February. Pic: Reuters
The US has a long-held policy of not negotiating with terrorists – which it is breaking with these talks as Hamas has been designated a foreign terrorist organisation by the US government’s National Counterterrorism Center since 1997.
The discussions come as a fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire continues to hold, but its future is uncertain.
Image: Palestinians amid the rubble in the southern Gaza strip. Pic: Reuters
Mr Trump has signalled he has no intention of pushing the Israeli prime minister away from a return to combat if Hamas does not agree to terms of a new ceasefire proposal – which, Israel says, has been drafted by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.
The new plan would require Hamas to release half its remaining hostages – the group’s main bargaining chip – in exchange for a ceasefire extension and a promise to negotiate a lasting truce.
Donald Trump has admitted his tariffs on major trading partners will cause “a little disturbance” – as China said it was “ready” for “any type of war” with the US.
The US president made his comments in an address to Congress, hours after the levies on imports came into effect.
Producers in Mexico and Canada have been hit with a 25% tax on items they export to the US, while a 20% tariff has been applied to Chinese imports.
Image: Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The US president has admitted his tariffs will cause ‘a little disturbance’ – as China responds. Pic: Reuters/AP
Stock markets, which Mr Trump is said to pay close attention to, slid on the tariffs news.
Exporters in the affected countries as well as businesses in the US and economists have raised concerns about the potential price-raising impact of the tariffs.
Making imports more expensive will likely make goods more expensive and could push prices up across the board.
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6:35
Trump’s Congress speech unwrapped
Concern over threat to interest rates
A cycle of high inflation could lead to interest rates being higher for longer in the US, the world’s largest economy, which could dampen economic activity.
A slowed US economy would have global consequences but even without a hit to the States, there are fears of a global trade war – in which countries add their own trade barriers in the form of tariffs.
The Chinese embassy in the US posted on X: “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”
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Speaking to Sky News presenter Yalda Hakim the US former deputy national security advisor Matt Pottinger said Chinese president Xi Jinping was turning the Chinese economy “into a wartime economy”
“He’s preparing his economy for war so that it can withstand the shocks of war,” he said on The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim podcast
“That means he’s willing to undergo massive inefficiencies in the economy. He’s willing to stockpile food that otherwise would flow easily and more cheaply in from foreign vessels.”
“He’s stockpiling copper and all kinds of inputs into the economy. He is making sure that the private sector is wholly aligned with his broad goals, which are about increasing the Chinese Communist Party’s control over the economy and creating a bigger, better defence industrial base,” Mr Pottinger said.
“He’s preparing for war.”
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Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau said his country was launching its own WTO challenge and described the US tariffs as a “dumb thing to do”.
He also warned the move by the Trump administration would impact American workplaces and add to inflation in the US.
Addressing the American public, he said: “We don’t want this… but your government has chosen to do this to you.”
Canada has announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn).
But US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick struck a different note on tariffs and on Monday said the president will “probably” announce a compromise with Canada and Mexico as early as Wednesday.