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In Washington circles and beyond, officials bristle at suggestions that the decision to supply cluster munitions to Ukraine represents an erosion of the moral high ground for America or that it suggests the war isn’t going well for Ukraine.

On the first point, Congressman Adam Smith, a ranking member of the Senate’s Armed Services Committee, told me: “Well, forgive me for being so blunt about this, but no, it does not erode the moral high ground. The only way it erodes the moral high ground is if either you’re an idiot, or you’re rooting for Russia in this conflict.”

The congressman, a Democrat, who was until January the chair of the Armed Services Committee, said: “When you look at what Russia is doing in Ukraine, when you look at the way they are still indiscriminately bombing civilian populations, knocking out hospitals and schools and shopping malls and apartment buildings all across the country, without a single military objective in mind, spraying ordnance all across the country, killing people, torturing people. What Ukraine is doing is trying to retake their country and no weapon of war is peaceful.”

Biden arrives in UK for Ukraine talks after defending ‘difficult’ decision on cluster munitions – latest

On the second point, that the decision to send cluster munitions is a signal that the war is not going well, the argument is more nuanced.

The blunt reality is that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is not having the success which had been hoped. They are getting through alarmingly large quantities of ammunition. Stocks are critically low – President Biden was remarkably candid about this.

That is not to say that the Russians have the upper hand or are somehow doing better than the Ukrainians. But they are dug in and hard to budge. Putin also has the luxuries of time and personnel. It’s true to say that neither side can claim battlefield success right now.

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That’s why America is arguing that cluster munitions of a particular type – fired from artillery pieces rather than being dropped from planes – must now be deployed. They bridge a supply problem, and they can significantly change Ukrainian fortunes on the battlefields.

The Biden administration is holding Ukraine to a pledge not to use these weapons on civilian targets or areas. Ukraine says it will use them on the eastern battlefields to take out dug in Russian forces.

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How cluster munitions could impact war

They will have a material impact. When the Americans used cluster munitions on the Iraqi forces in 1991, Iraqi commanders described the incoming weapons as “steel rain”.

The Americans also claim that the “dud rate” of their DPICM (dual-purpose improvised conventional munition) is +/-2%. That means that only about 2% of the “bomblets” distributed over an already ordinance-strewn battlefield will fail to explode.

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President Biden agrees to send controversial cluster munitions to Ukraine

If you are firing hundreds of shells each of which contain many more bomblets, 2% isn’t insignificant.

But, it does compare favourably to the +/-30% dud rate of NATO cluster munitions used in the Yugoslav War of the 1990s or for that matter to the dud rate of the cluster bombs Russia is using right now on civilian targets in Ukraine.

The statements of unease about the US decision from other NATO countries are predictable.

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PM on use of cluster munitions

They are bound by the 2008 convention banning the use of all cluster munitions. The subtext of the statements by the UK, Germany, Canada, New Zealand and others is, effectively, “we’d rather they were not on the battlefield, but we recognise their necessity, we note their low dud rate, and we need to see Putin fail”.

So watch for discussion about cluster munitions at the NATO summit but don’t expect it to overshadow the meeting. NATO unity is key.

A bigger threat to that unity could come from substantive discussions on Sweden’s accession to the alliance. Turkey has objections, as does Hungary. Sources say these objections can be overcome soon.

The other key topic will be the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO. This won’t happen until the war is over.

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President Biden arrives in UK

Beyond the fact that Ukraine hasn’t yet completed the necessary security and democratic reforms necessary for NATO membership, there is a more practical issue.

If Ukraine was to be granted membership now then NATO’s Article 5 (an attack on one member is an attack on all) would be automatically triggered because Russia is actively attacking Ukraine. That would compel NATO forces to attack Russia.

But, a carefully worded conditional commitment on Ukrainian membership to NATO when the war is over is likely soon. In the shorter term look out for other security commitments now.

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Trump exempts Hungary from US sanctions on Russian energy after meeting Orban

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Trump exempts Hungary from US sanctions on Russian energy after meeting Orban

Hungary has been given a one-year exemption from US sanctions on using Russian energy, a White House official has said, after its Prime Minister Viktor Orban met with Donald Trump in the White House.

Mr Orban succeeded in convincing the US president to allow Hungary to continue importing Russian oil and gas without being subject to the sanctions Mr Trump‘s administration had placed on Russian fossil fuels.

Hungary has been under heavy pressure from the European Union to end its reliance on Russian energy.

The EU has mostly heavily cut or ceased its imports of Russian oil and gas.

On 22 October, Mr Trump imposed sanctions against Russia’s two biggest oil companies, in a major policy shift described by Vladimir Putin as an “unfriendly act”.

Mr Trump has also been pushing Europe to stop using Russian energy.

Ukraine war latest: Trump gives Hungary energy sanctions relief

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Will US sanctions on Russian oil hurt the Kremlin?

Mr Orban, the country’s nationalist leader and a long-time ally of Mr Trump, has described access to Russian energy as a “vital” issue for his landlocked country.

He said he planned to discuss with Mr Trump the “consequences for the Hungarian people” if the sanctions came into effect.

Speaking at a news conference after his talks with Mr Trump, Mr Orban said Hungary had “been granted a complete exemption from sanctions” affecting Russian gas delivered to Hungary from the TurkStream pipeline and oil from the Druzhba pipeline.

“We asked the president to lift the sanctions,” Mr Orban said. “We agreed and the president decided, and he said that the sanctions will not be applied to these two pipelines.”

Mr Trump appeared to be sympathetic to Mr Orban’s pleas.

“We’re looking at it, because it’s very different for him to get the oil and gas from other areas,” he said.

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Why did Trump sanction Russian oil?

“As you know, they don’t have … the advantage of having sea. It’s a great country, it’s a big country, but they don’t have sea. They don’t have the ports.”

He added: “But many European countries are buying oil and gas from Russia, and they have been for years. And I said, ‘What’s that all about?'”

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Putin: US sanctions are an ‘unfriendly act’

Orban says ‘miracle can happen’ in Ukraine war

Mr Trump and Mr Orban also discussed the war in Ukraine, with the US president saying: “The basic dispute is they just don’t want to stop yet. And I think they will.”

The president asked Mr Orban if he thought Ukraine could win the war, with the prime minister saying a “miracle can happen”.

Hungary reliant on Russian gas and oil

As part of the discussions, Hungary agreed to buy US liquefied natural gas (LNG), the US state department said, noting contracts were expected to be worth around $600m (£455m).

The two nations also agreed to work together on nuclear energy, including small modular reactors.

Mr Orban also said Hungary will also purchase nuclear fuel from the US-based Westinghouse Electric Company to power its Paks nuclear plant, which has until now relied on Russian-supplied nuclear fuel.

International Monetary Fund figures show Hungary relied on Russia for 74% of its gas and 86% of its oil last year. It warned an EU-wide cutoff of Russian natural gas could result in output losses in Hungary exceeding 4% of its GDP.

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Why US may soon have a real energy emergency

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Why US may soon have a real energy emergency

Donald Trump declared a questionable “national energy emergency” when he entered the White House. Soon, he may have one for real.

The president promised his America would “drill, baby drill” to new levels of prosperity by making the most of its reserves of oil and gas.

Mr Trump has now axed hundreds of billions in tax breaks and grants for low-carbon power and clean energy research and given them instead to fossil fuel investments.

Construction continues on Revolution Wind but the project is not yet connected to the grid. Pic: Reuters
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Construction continues on Revolution Wind but the project is not yet connected to the grid. Pic: Reuters

There’s no better example than Revolution Wind, one of the largest offshore renewable energy projects in America.

Nearly 80% complete, the White House ordered an immediate halt.

When we visited, the massive 200m-wide turbines were going round – a temporary injunction has allowed construction to continue – but they’re not yet connected to the grid.

As long as Mr Trump is in power, it’s not certain they’ll ever be.

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The future of other major wind and solar developments is also in doubt, as is more than $100bn (£75bn) in clean energy investment.

There’s less doubt about the fossil fuel business however. The industry is getting what it asked for after backing Mr Trump’s re-election.

US energy secretary Chris Wright and many key White House staff and advisers are former fossil fuel industry insiders.

Analysis for Sky News, by Global Witness, reveals that since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, US oil and gas production has grown five times faster than the average of the world’s next largest producers.

An increase that really took off during Mr Trump’s first presidency.

The analysis of company data goes on to reveal how US oil and gas production is now forecast to continue growing – by 2035 to double that of its next closest rival, Russia.

“Instead of reducing investment in dirty oil and gas, the principal drivers of climate breakdown, the US has doubled down on fossil fuels, ramping up production,” said Patrick Galey, of Global Witness.

A fact that would probably be music to the president’s ears and to many conservative Americans who voted for him.

US oil and gas production is forecast to grow to double that of Russia's by 2035
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US oil and gas production is forecast to grow to double that of Russia’s by 2035

Mr Trump’s “energy emergency” was perhaps a predictable response to the “climate emergency” invoked by his political rivals.

The only problem is, apart from accelerating global warming, his energy plan is on course to make America worse off.

‘US energy demand to grow 25%’

For the first time in years, US electricity demand has been going up. It is driven in part by a race to build power-hungry data centres – further encouraged by Mr Trump’s aim for American supremacy in AI.

Demand is rising and renewable energy is the quickest, cheapest way to meet it.

Data centres require vast amounts of power. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Data centres require vast amounts of power. Pic: Reuters

President Trump has championed supremacy in AI – backing investments in and clearing red tape for massive energy-hungry data centres.

After declining, then remaining stable for years, US energy demand is now forecast to grow 25% by 2030, according to analysis by ICF International.

But where will all the electricity come from?

We went to Mitsubishi Power, which makes state-of- the-art gas turbines for power stations at its factory outside Savannah, Georgia.

Demand for new turbines has never been greater, according to Bill Newsom, the US CEO. Wait times for new turbines is now double what it was just two years ago.

Mitsubishi makes gas turbines for power stations at its factory outside Savannah, Georgia
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Mitsubishi makes gas turbines for power stations at its factory outside Savannah, Georgia

And while America will need gas to meet rising demand – it’s twice as clean as coal and provides “baseload” power that renewable energy grids can’t yet match – it can’t be built fast enough.

American businesses, including AI, will likely suffer because they can’t get the power they need.

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US consumers – who Mr Trump promised lower bills – will end up paying more because he also made renewable energy more expensive.

And that’s to say nothing of the impact on carbon emissions.

The speed of transition being called for to meet the 1.5C Paris target was always going to be very expensive, as countries like the UK are finding out.

But by fighting one “emergency” with another, Mr Trump risks making Americans – and the climate – worse off.

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One year on from Donald Trump’s election win, an untold story has emerged

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One year on from Donald Trump's election win, an untold story has emerged

It’s a year since the US put Donald Trump back in the White House and I’ve spent this anniversary week in Florida and in Pennsylvania – two worlds in one country where I found two such contrasting snapshots of Trump’s America.

There are many ways to reflect on the successes and failures of the past year. Different issues matter to different people. But the thing which matters to all Americans is money.

The cost of living was a key factor in Donald Trump’s victory. He promised to make the country more affordable again. So: how’s he done?

On Wednesday, exactly a year since Americans went to the polls, the president was in Miami. He had picked this city and a particular crowd for his anniversary speech.

I was in the audience at the America Business Forum as he told wealthy entrepreneurs and investors how great life is now.

“One year ago we were a dead country, now we’re considered the hottest country in the world.” he told them to cheers. “Record high, record high, record high…”

The vibe was glitzy and wealthy. These days, these are his voters; his crowd.

“After just one year since that glorious election, I’m thrilled to say that America is back, America is back bigger, better, stronger than ever.” he said.

“We’ve done really well. I think it’s the best nine months, they say, of any president. And I really believe that if we can have a few more nine months like this, you’d be very happy. You’d be very satisfied.”

There was little question here that people are happy.

Liz Ciborowski says Trump has been good for the economy
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Liz Ciborowski says Trump has been good for the economy

“Trump’s been a good thing?” I asked one attendee, Liz Ciborowski.

“Yes. He has really pushed for a lot of issues that are really important for our economy,” she said.

“I’m an investor,” said another, Andrea.

“I’m a happy girl. I’m doing good,” she said with a laugh.

Andrea says she's happy with how the economy is faring
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Andrea says she’s happy with how the economy is faring

A year on from his historic victory, the president was, notably, not with the grassroots folk in the places that propelled him back to the White House.

He had chosen to be among business leaders in Miami. Safe crowd, safe state, safe space.

But there was just one hint in his speech which seemed to acknowledge the reality that should be a concern for him.

“We have the greatest economy right now,” he said, adding: “A lot of people don’t see that.”

That is the crux of it: many people beyond the fortunate here don’t feel the “greatest economy” he talks about. And many of those people are in the places that delivered Trump his victory.

That’s the untold story of the past year.

A thousand miles to the north of Miami is another America – another world.

Steelton, Pennsylvania sits in one of Donald Trump’s heartlands. But it is not feeling the beat of his greatest economy. Not at all.

At the local steel union, I was invited to attend a meeting of a group of steel workers. It was an intimate glimpse into a hard, life-changing moment for the men.

The steel plant is shutting down and they were listening to their union representative explaining what happens next.

David Myers used to be employed at the steelworks
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David Myers used to be employed at the steelworks

The conversation was punctuated with all the words no one wants to hear: laid off, severance, redundancy.

“For over 100 years, my family has been here working. And I was planning on possibly one day having my son join me, but I don’t know if that’s a possibility now,” former employee David Myers tells me.

“And…” he pauses. “Sorry I’m getting a little emotional about it. We’ve been supplying America with railroad tracks for over a century and a half, and it feels weird for it to be coming to an end.”

Cleveland Cliffs Steelton plant is closing because of weakening demand, according to its owners. Their stock price has since surged. Good news for the Miami crowd, probably. It is the irony between the two Americas.

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Steelton in Pennsylvania
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Steelton in Pennsylvania

Down at the shuttered plant, it’s empty, eerie and depressing. It is certainly not the image or the vision that Donald Trump imagined for his America.

Pennsylvania, remember, was key to propelling Trump back to the White House. In this swing state, they swung to his promises – factories reopened and life more affordable.

Up the road, conversations outside the town’s government-subsidised homes frame the challenges here so starkly.

“How much help does the community need?” I asked a man running the local food bank.

Elder Melvin Watts is a community organiser
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Elder Melvin Watts is a community organiser

“As much as they can get. I mean, help is a four-letter word but it has a big meaning. So help!” community organiser Elder Melvin Watts said.

I asked if he thought things were worse than a year ago.

“Yes sir. I believe they needed it then and they need it that much more now. You know it’s not hard to figure that out. The cost of living is high.”

Nearby, I met a woman called Sandra.

Sandra says it's getting harder to make ends meet
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Sandra says it’s getting harder to make ends meet

“It’s been harder, and I’m a hard-working woman.” she told me. “I don’t get no food stamps, I don’t get none of that. You’ve got to take care of them bills, eat a little bit or don’t have the lights on. Then you have people like Mr Melvin, he’s been out here for years, serving the community.”

Inside Mr Melvin’s food bank, a moment then unfolded that cut to the heart of the need here.

A woman called Geraldine Santiago arrived, distressed, emotional and then overwhelmed by the boxes of food available to her.

“We’ll help you…” Mr Melvin said as she sobbed.

Geraldine's welfare has been affected by the shutdown
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Geraldine’s welfare has been affected by the shutdown

Geraldine is one of 40 million Americans now not receiving the full nutritional assistance programme, known as SNAP, and usually provided by the federal government.

SNAP benefits have stopped because the government remains shut down amid political deadlock.

I watched Geraldine’s rollercoaster emotions spilling out – from desperation to gratitude at this moment of respite. She left with a car boot full of food.

A year on from his victory, Donald Trump continues to frame himself as the “America First” president and now with an economy transformed. But parts of America feel far, far away.

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