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Inflation will fall “markedly” over the rest of the year, says the Bank of England’s governor.

The rate of price increases will come down due to lower energy costs, which should result in falling food bills for shoppers, Andrew Bailey said in a speech at London’s Mansion House.

The bank had been criticised for its previous inaccurate inflation forecasts and for not taking action to bring down the rate of rising costs sooner.

Under rigorous questioning from MP members of Treasury Committee, Mr Bailey in May said there was “a lot to learn” about operating monetary policy in a world of big shocks, such as the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic.

An external review into forecasting at the bank was announced last month.

But in his Mansion House speech, Mr Bailey said “it is crucial that we see the job through”.

The Monetary Policy Committee of the bank has been persistently raising interest rates in an effort to bring down inflation which has remained stagnant at 8.7% for the last two months.

Much will be said by Mr Bailey on the possibilities of, and work to create, a central bank digital currency (CBDC), sometimes known as Britcoin.

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Unlike cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, the coin would have intrinsic value connected to the pound.

Also unlike crytpo, a potential Britcoin would be issued by the Bank of England and not the private sector.

Mr Bailey called on commercial banks to invest in digital money technology to provide consumer choice.

“This is a call to action particularly to banks – don’t leave central banks as the only show in town,” he said.

“There is no reason that I can think of which makes well designed, enhanced digital money the sole preserve of central banks”.

The creation of a digital form of currency had been the subject of a public consultation which, Mr Bailey said, received a record number of responses – more than 50,000.

Digital monies are “perfectly possible and achievable”, Mr Bailey added.

While there is not yet a specific need and no certainty a CBDC will be created, Mr Bailey said, that should not stop research and innovation.

“Inability to specify a very precise detailed use case today is not a good reason to believe there will never be one. There are stories of scepticism around the benefits to be expected from the iPhone, and going further back, railways.”

A Britcoin could facilitate smart contracts, in which money would be programmed to only be released when an action was carried out.

Mr Bailey said concern was raised by some of the public consultation submissions over power authorities may have to reach into people’s privacy with a Britcoin.

But this is “absolutely at odds” with what the bank would do, he said.

“Incidentally, whoever painted “no to CBDC” on a motorway bridge, I can only apologise to the Cumbria Biodiversity Data Centre. Sorry.”

A decision on whether to implement a digital pound will be made around the middle of the decade.

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Trump agrees further tariff concessions but April threat remains

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Trump agrees further tariff concessions but April threat remains

Donald Trump has announced that most goods imported from Mexico are to be exempt from his trade tariff regime for at least four weeks, just days after the charges were imposed.

He confirmed the move following a phone call with his Mexican counterpart Claudia Sheinbaum and, according to his commerce secretary, was due to announce a similar concession to Canada later in the day.

“We are working hard, together, on the Border, both in terms of stopping Illegal Aliens from entering the United States and, likewise, stopping Fentanyl,” Mr Trump posted on Truth Social.

The latest climbdown by the US president came after he surprised financial markets on Wednesday by waiving tariffs against carmakers following pleas from motor industry bosses.

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The White House revealed then that parts due to flow into the US from Mexico and Canada as part of the manufacturing supply chain would not qualify for tariffs so long as they complied with an existing trade agreement struck between the three.

‘Rules of origin’ guidelines under the USMCA deal allow goods to move between the three countries tariff-free if they qualify with a designation that they were made in North America.

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US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick told Sky’s US partner network CNBC that if the concession was extended to Canada, then more than half of usual cross border trade volumes would be exempt.

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Why are tariffs such a big deal?

He too signalled there were signs of progress in Mr Trump’s dispute with America’s closest trading partners, saying each had worked hard to make progress in tackling imports of Fentanyl – blamed for high crime and deaths in US communities.

But Mr Lutnick explained that, as things stand, the reprieve would only last until 2 April when the Trump administration plans to impose reciprocal tariffs – on top of the 25% charges that came into force on Tuesday.

The car industry believes that no products from Canada and Mexico are currently subject to tariffs as they comply with the USMCA deal agreed in 2020.

It should spare consumers extra costs of at least $4,000 on the purchase of a new vehicle, industry data showed.

While that could still change from 2 April, Mr Trump is under intense pressure to relax his tariff regime permanently amid a backlash from US firms and financial market investors who fear it is self defeating.

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A closely-watched forecast has even suggested that the threats of a trade war were enough to push the US economy into recession before Mr Trump took office.

The dollar has sunk in value and US government borrowing costs have risen on the back of the turmoil.

It is widely expected that the European Union will be next to face tariffs – possibly from 2 April – after Trump threatened action “very soon” just last week.

Commenting on the threat to the eurozone from such a move, the president of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde said on Thursday: “Just the threat of those tariff increases and potential retaliations are putting a brake on – on investment, on consumption decisions, on employment, hiring, all the rest of it.

While Mr Trump has not issued a specific threat against the UK, her counterpart at the Bank of England Andrew Bailey told a committee of MPs on Wednesday that the US should work “multi-laterally” rather than bilaterally to resolve its disputes.

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Millions in compensation for customers impacted by Barclays outages

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Millions in compensation for customers impacted by Barclays outages

Barclays is to pay millions in compensation for recent IT outages which prevented customers from banking.

The lender said it expects to pay between £5m and £7.5m in compensation to customers for “inconvenience or distress” caused by a payday outage last month, the influential Treasury Committee of MPs said.

The glitch began at the end of January and lasted several days.

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This was caused by “severe degradation” in the performance of their mainframe computer, a large computer used by big organisations for bulk data processing.

It resulted in the failure of 56% of Barclays’s online payments.

Up to £12.5m, however, could be paid when all outages over the last two years from January 2023 and February 2025 are factored in, the committee said.

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It would be by far the biggest amount of compensation paid by a firm in the last two years. Irish bank Bank of Ireland would be the second having issued £350,000 in compensation.

The committee is investigating IT problems at all banks that prevent or limit customer access.

Why does this keep happening?

As part of their inquiries, banks said common reasons for IT failures included problems with third-party suppliers, disruption caused by systems changes and internal software malfunctions.

The responses were received before last Friday’s online banking failures which caused difficulties for millions on payday but the committee said it would request data on the latest disruption.

A recurring problem

The nine top banks written to by the Treasury Committee accumulated 803 hours of unplanned outages, they said, equivalent to 33 days.

These hours were comprised of 158 individual IT failures. Barclays’ payday failure is not captured in the numbers.

As a result, the bank with the longest outages was NatWest with 194 hours of failures.

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Trump moves to exclude carmakers from tariff pain

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Trump moves to exclude carmakers from tariff pain

Donald Trump is to exclude carmakers across North America from the pain of US tariffs levelled against Mexico and Canada, following apparent pressure from motor bosses.

The White House confirmed the concession was made after the president spoke to the bosses of Ford, General Motors and Stellantis in a call on Wednesday.

Each company has manufacturing operations and suppliers in Canada and Mexico.

There will be a tariff exemption of at least a month on vehicles made across the continent but only if a previous agreement on so-called ‘rules of origin’ is implemented in full.

It governs where a product is first sourced and where a tariff may apply during transit across borders.

“Reciprocal” tariffs are still planned from April, the president’s spokesman said.

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Manufacturers have complained of being worst affected by the imposition of 25% tariffs against both Canada and Mexico since Tuesday because flows of parts between the three countries can be hit by tariffs multiple times.

The complicated nature of their operations can mean a single component crosses a border more than once during the production process.

Such a big spike in costs from tariffs poses a big risk to sales as customers are asked to pay more to help compensate for the sanctions.

Automakers’ share prices have been among the worst hit since Mr Trump took office again in January.

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Why are tariffs such a big deal?

The car bosses, according to Reuters news agency sources, pledged additional US investment but wanted clarity on tariffs ahead.

Mr Trump urged them to shift their operations to the United States, according to a White House statement.

The tariff concession marked the first compromise on the trade issue since the president signalled, on Tuesday, that there would be no U-turns and only more tariffs after Canada said it would respond in kind.

There have been growing signs this week that corporate America is uneasy, at best, with the tariff policy against both Mexico and Canada

Those US neighbours, along with China, which is facing 20% tariffs, are the country’s three biggest trading partners.

The imposition of tariffs on all goods has been received badly by financial market investors, worried that US profitability is at risk.

One closely-watched forecast for US growth suggested that the threat of tariffs since Mr Trump’s election victory was confirmed had hammered activity and plunged the country into recession.

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There are mounting reports of boycotts against US goods in Mexico and Canada.

The nerves were publicly admitted by the boss of Jack Daniel’s maker Brown Forman, Lawson Whiting, on Wednesday when he described Canadian provinces taking American-made alcohol off shop shelves as “worse than a tariff”.

US stock market values are sharply down since the inauguration and the dollar has lost more than three cents against rivals including the euro and the pound just this week amid the tariff turmoil.

Such is the growing investor concern for the health of the US economy, the tariff implications have been partly blamed for a steep fall in oil prices.

Brent crude was trading at $68 a barrel earlier on Wednesday – its lowest level for more than three years.

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