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Look this bull market in the mouth, and it seems like four out of five doctors will tell you its got a classic, open-and-shut case of bad breadth.

Stocks have rallied for the past nine months despite aggressive rate hikes and widespread recession fears. But the boom isnt sufficiently broad, the naysayers insist. Instead, it looks narrow, hollow and fragile.

Accordingly, these would-be physicians of finance would like to see the gains demonstrate more breadth that is, markedly more stocks doing well versus badly. Sounds reasonable, right? 

In fact, this diagnosis reeks of quackery. And Id like to explain why this is important for your financial health.

Stepping back, its only logical that the boom weve got now is slow-breadth. In a slow-growth economy with widespread recession fears, investors seek highest-quality, all-weather growth and should pay up for it. Safety rises, on average, with size. Few huge, high-quality growth firms exist. So breadth shrinks, but markets rise.

Some swear were in the throes of AI froth. Im skeptical that artificial intelligence can be as big and grow as fast as many hope. Still, few of these leading stocks have any real and significant revenue or cost savings coming from AI in the next five years and dont claim to.

No, this rise is all about the highest quality, most assured growth, not the fastest maybe growth. And means the biggest of the big, selling at high valuations and getting higher. Thats mostly tech, but also Europes luxury goods leaders.

So yes, theres no denying it the recent breadth has indeed been bad. The thing is, bad breadth is actually bullish. 

Weve already seen the market drop quickly and dramatically. On top of that, were still awash in bearish sentiment. As previously discussed in this column, this widespread doom and gloom whether its the Fed, the Ukraine invasion, or the latest banking crisis is actually bullish for stocks. 

This is what we call fear of a false factor. False fear is always hurting prices in a given moment, setting the stage for spring-loaded gains. Bad breadth is the latest such false fear and it screams that this mega-cap-led surge has legs maybe not this week or this month, but fully through 2023.

Breadth has been invoked by bearish analysts since the early 1900s, when advance/decline lines were popular trend tellers. They believed top-heavy markets with few stellar stars topple when those few leaders lose luster. 

The legend lives like some horrible halitosis but again, falsely.   

At Januarys end, more than 60% of S&P 500 stocks outperformed the index over the prior year. By May 31, however, just 34.3% were outperforming the fastest plunge on record since reliable breadth data started in 1965. Likewise, the percent of S&P 500 constituents closing above their 200-day moving average fell below 15% last June and September only the eighth and ninth such occurrences since 1990. 

Scary, right? 

On the contrary: Throughout the middling and longer periods that matter to most investors, imploding breadth is historically ultra-bullish. Of three other breadth swoons approaching 2023s record size, one in 1969 came mid-bear-market and soon before a 32-month bull market erupted, delivering 74% gains. The others came during early bull cycle corrections: in 1984, three years before stocks peaked, and in 2003, just months into a five-year bull market.

Similarly, extreme low percentages of stocks eclipsing their 200-day moving averages precede booms, not busts. Take the seven deep troughs before 2022s. Three months later, stocks were higher 86% of the time. Ditto for returns 6 and 12 months out. Median S&P 500 returns three months later were 10.6%. After 6 months, 18.1%. A year? 25.4%.

Breadth can stink for years in rising markets. In late 1996 as a Forbes columnist, I urged buying the biggest 50 stocks. By April 1997, I narrowed that to 35 as stocks climbed. In early 1999, I narrowed to the 25 largest. 

Another year of great gains remained — four big, bull-market, bad-breadth years.

How long will this bad breadth linger? Until optimism overcomes skepticism. It is just more of the pessimism of disbelief that Ive harped upon in this column for most of the past year. Check to see you might suffer from this doom-and-gloom affliction yourself, and if so, get rid of it. 

Yes, this is partly about confidence. Those who stick with the market are going to do great. So please: Dont worry about bad breadth.

Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a four-time New York Times bestselling author, and regular columnist in 17 countries globally.

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India and Pakistan were close to miscalculation either side couldn’t afford

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India and Pakistan were close to miscalculation either side couldn't afford

Both India and Pakistan claimed they didn’t want all-out war, or for things to escalate.

But given that those statements came within hours of airstrikes from either side, it’s easy to understand why the world was sceptical.

Fast forward just a few hours though and a ceasefire has been agreed – with the help of the US, who brokered talks and even announced the deal.

India-Pakistan live: Latest updates as ceasefire agreed

The agreement has sparked celebrations in Pakistan, with people in many cities, including Lahore, taking to the streets. Chants of “Pakistan Zindabad” – “Long Live Pakistan” in English – are ringing out.

But the deal doesn’t undo the events of the past two weeks, which will continue to weigh heavily on the minds of many here.

The military action has been the most significant between the countries in decades and dozens have died on both sides.

More on India

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Pakistan fires missiles at India

Just this morning, Pakistan inflicted some serious damage to India’s military sites and New Delhi did not waste time responding with further strikes.

It was a reminder, for many, of the uncertainty of the situation between India and Pakistan.

Read more:
How India and Pakistan’s militaries match up
The story of India and Pakistan’s deadly conflict

A house damaged in overnight Indian shelling, in Shah Kot, in Neelum Vallery. Pic: AP/M.D. Mughal
Image:
A house damaged in Indian shelling, in Shah Kot, in Neelum Vallery. Pic: AP/M.D. Mughal

Representatives from each country will speak again on Monday and even with the strikes halted, for now, the next 48 hours will be a very testing moment.

Both sides have often shown striking strategic restraint. And in the past fortnight, neither has launched a full-scale attack.

But their enmity has been enduring, and even with the agreement in place, it feels a bit complacent to assume India and Pakistan will just walk back from the brink.

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Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Can the Golden Knights rally from down 2-0?

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Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Can the Golden Knights rally from down 2-0?

The second-round series of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have entered the “venue change” stage, where the previous visitors are now playing host.

The Carolina Hurricanes headed back to the Lenovo Center with a 1-1 series against the Washington Capitals, and they’ll pick up hostilities at 6 p.m. ET Saturday. The Edmonton Oilers traveled back to Rogers Place holding a 2-0 lead over the Vegas Golden Knights; Game 3 of that series is 9 p.m. ET Saturday.

What will the series tally be in Caps-Canes when it heads back to D.C. — and will the Knights win at least one in Alberta so they even see a Game 5 back in Las Vegas?

Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a recap of what went down in Friday’s games and the three stars of Friday from Arda Öcal.

Matchup notes

Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes
Game 3 | 6 p.m. ET | TNT

With the Canes and Capitals tied up 1-1 heading to Raleigh for Games 3 and 4, ESPN BET has Carolina as the -215 series favorite. Washington is +180 to win the series.

Capitals defenseman John Carlson scored a power-play goal in Game 2, his 13th career playoff power-play goal, which breaks a tie with Brian Leetch for third for such goals by an American-born defenseman. He still trails Chris Chelios (14) and Brian Rafalski (17).

For the first time in his postseason career, Tom Wilson reached all of these thresholds: 2 points, 3 shots on goal, 2 hits and 2 blocked shots. His seven points this season is the most he has had in a playoff run since the Cup-winning year of 2018 (15).

The Hurricanes have not held an in-game lead since Game 4 of the first round against the Devils. They won the series in Game 5 in a double-overtime game, then won Game 1 of this series 2-1 in OT after trailing 1-0. Since that lead in Game 4 of the first round, they have trailed for 89:28 and been tied for 117:55.

Among qualified goaltenders this postseason, Frederik Andersen leads by a wide margin in goals-against average (1.55), and is second in save percentage, at .930. The netminder ahead of him in SV%? Washington’s Logan Thompson.

Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers
Game 3 | 9 p.m. ET | TNT

Following two wins by the Oilers in Vegas, ESPN BET now lists Edmonton as the -550 favorites to win this series, with the Golden Knights at +380. Edmonton is also the current favorite to win the Cup, at +300, narrowly ahead of the Stars, at +325. Vegas is now +1800, the longest odds of any team remaining in the playoffs.

Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid combined to score the game-winning OT goal in Game 2. It was the second OT goal this postseason for Draisaitl, and he is now tied for the most such goals in a single postseason in Oilers history with Esa Tikkanen in 1991.

McDavid is second among playoff scorers with 14 points through eight games, trailing only Mikko Rantanen‘s 15. McDavid’s 1.75 points per game this postseason is ahead of his rate in playoff seasons past (1.58) and well ahead of his rate during last year’s run to the Stanley Cup Final (1.36).

Victor Olofsson had two goals and an assist in a losing effort in Game 2. Both goals were on the power play, and he joins Jack Eichel as the only players in Knights history with multiple power-play goals in a single playoff game.

Speaking of Eichel, he finished with three assists, joining Shea Theodore and William Karlsson as the only players in Knights history with two three-assist playoff games on their résumé.


Öcal’s three stars from Friday

After a rough first round against the Blues, Hellebuyck shut out the Stars in Game 2. He made 21 saves en route to the fourth clean sheet of his postseason career.

Ehlers had his second career multigoal game and added an assist in a big Game 2 effort that tied Winnipeg’s series with Dallas 1-1.

The former Bruin continues to haunt the Maple Leafs, this time with the overtime winner to get the Panthers on the series board at 2-1. It was his fourth career playoff OT goal, and he extended his own NHL record for most consecutive postseasons with a game-winning goal (nine).


Friday’s recaps

Florida Panthers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
TOR leads 2-1 | Game 4 Sunday

Toronto entered with a 2-0 series lead and got out to a 2-0 start in the game as well, with goals from Matthew Knies and John Tavares, before Aleksander Barkov drew the Panthers back to within a goal with his third goal of the postseason. Tavares added a power-play tally at 2:52 of the second period on a slick deflection, before the Panthers ripped off two goals in quick succession to tie the score. The first was thanks to Sam Reinhart poking the puck in during a wild scramble in the Leafs’ crease, the second after a superb pass from Sam Bennett to Carter Verhaeghe. Jonah Gadjovich put the home squad up 4-3, but Morgan Rielly tied things up midway through the third. It took until the final five minutes of the first OT, but Brad Marchand came through with another game-winning goal. Full recap.

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1:30

Brad Marchand’s OT winner sparks pandemonium from Panthers crowd

Brad Marchand scores a massive overtime goal to deliver the Panthers a 5-4 win over the Maple Leafs.

Winnipeg Jets 4, Dallas Stars 0
Series tied 1-1 | Game 3 Sunday

If this is the kind of goaltending the Jets will now get from Connor Hellebuyck, the Stars (and the rest of the NHL) are in trouble. Hellebuyck stopped all 21 shots sent on the Jets’ goal en route to his fourth career postseason shutout. On the offensive side, Gabriel Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers got the party started in the first. Adam Lowry added his fourth goal of the postseason in the second, and that 3-0 lead stood until 16:20 of the third, when Ehlers capped off the festivities with an empty-net goal. Full recap.

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0:26

Nikolaj Ehlers rolls in an empty-net goal for Winnipeg

Nikolaj Ehlers scores his second goal of the game to pad the Jets’ lead late in the third period vs. the Stars.

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Leafs’ Stolarz progressing but not close to return

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Leafs' Stolarz progressing but not close to return

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Maple Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz continues to work his way back but doesn’t appear close to a return in Toronto’s second-round Eastern Conference playoff series against the Florida Panthers.

“He’s progressing in the right direction,” Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube said Saturday. “But he has not skated yet [since getting hurt].”

Stolarz was injured during Game 1 on Monday. The goaltender took a puck off his mask and an elbow to the head from Panthers forward Sam Bennett in the second period, exiting shortly after the Bennett hit. Stolarz, who was ill on Toronto’s bench before he left the game, was later transported to a hospital for evaluation.

The veteran was able to rejoin his teammates Tuesday at their facility but did not travel with the Maple Leafs to Florida ahead of Friday’s Game 3.

Joseph Woll took over the starting duties from Stolarz and helped stake Toronto to a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series. But Woll struggled in Game 3, recording an .861 save percentage as the Panthers mounted two multigoal comebacks to down the Maple Leafs 5-4 in overtime.

Berube said after the loss that he “thought [Woll] was really good” but that he didn’t love when Panthers fourth-liner Jonah Gadjovich beat the goaltender cleanly from outside the right faceoff circle to give Florida its first lead of the game at 4-3.

Woll also has been adjusting to playing the puck amid Florida’s smothering forecheck.

“They rim a lot of pucks,” Woll said Friday. “I’m just trying to do my best to help us break out.”

Florida hasn’t made it easy on Toronto in that respect. Berube anticipates Woll can learn from Friday’s mistakes and improve, though.

“It’s difficult,” Berube said. “A lot of those rims are up; they’re not on the ice. And that’s designed. If they can get a good lick on it, they’re going to get it on the glass. It’s pretty tough for him to come out and play those. He did get to a lot of them. But they’re coming hard. He’s going to have to move it quick.”

Game 4 of the series is set for Sunday.

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