Despite major lobbying by Kyiv, speedy accession to NATO is very unlikely
A giant poster on the road into the host city of this week’s NATO summit in Lithuania reads: “Ukraine deserves NATO membership now.”
That is what Kyiv would like to see, though it is not going to happen as long as Ukraine is in a fierce war with Russia.
Even after the fighting stops, a speedy accession to the transatlantic club is very unlikely, despite such a pathway being the strong desire of Vilnius and its fellow Baltic state capitals.
Yet the question about how close to hold Ukraine will dominate the two-day gathering of NATO leaders, including US President Joe Biden, the UK’s Rishi Sunak and President Emmanuel Macron of France, in the Lithuanian capital.
A top US diplomat told Sky News that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who will also attend, will be “relieved” when he hears what the allies have to offer on membership.
The poster in Vilnius
“I think he will feel relieved to see the unity that the alliance is showcasing in this moment and the full package of concrete deliverables that the alliance is prepared to offer,” Julianne Smith, the US ambassador to NATO, said in an interview.
But a Ukrainian military source said there was already a sense of “big disappointment”.
“We understand that we can’t change a lot but feel ourselves betrayed as a nation,” the source said.
“NATO was created to deter Russia. Now Ukraine, with support of NATO, is deterring and weakening Russia. Ukraine is now conducting Article 5 by itself to protect Poland and the Baltic states.”
The source was referring to the founding Article 5 principle of the alliance that an attack on one member state is considered an attack on all and requires a collective response. Any nation, like Ukraine, that is not a member is not afforded this protection.
The overtures to Ukraine are expected to take two, separate forms.
Firstly, there will be a commitment by allies in a final communique at the end of the summit to some kind of route for NATO membership that goes further than a general pledge made in 2008 that the door to joining the alliance was open.
US President Joe Biden arrives in Vilnius
As part of this, allies are expected to ditch a requirement for Ukraine to complete a process known as a membership action plan that involves lengthy political and military reforms.
They will also convene the first meeting of a NATO-Ukraine Council, a new arrangement designed to let Kyiv deal with allies on a more equal footing.
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All this falls well short of a clear invitation to join the club that Ukraine had been seeking.
But NATO is an alliance that works by consensus so can only ever move at the pace of the most reluctant – as demonstrated most recently by Turkey’s behaviour over a historic bid by Sweden to become a member state.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan only lifted his veto on Swedish membership on the eve of the summit, despite a large majority of allies backing Stockholm’s bid. Even then Ankara has yet to set a firm date for when the Turkish parliament will ratify the accession agreement.
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Zelenskyy will be ‘relieved’ after Lithuania summit, says US ambassador to NATO.
Hungary too has yet to rubber stamp Sweden’s joining papers.
It means Stockholm is still outside the club and Swedish membership is far less controversial than inviting a country that is locked in a war of survival with Russia to join NATO.
The Swedish experience is a clear signal that Ukrainian membership – while agreed in principle by all allies – is not likely to happen quickly.
That is why the second step that might emerge in Vilnius is so important.
Individual member states led by the US, UK, France and Germany – rather than NATO as a collective – are finalising a framework agreement that will set out a series of long-term security guarantees that they will grant Ukraine short of speedy NATO membership.
These guarantees, such as enduring commitment to provide weapons, intelligence and other security assistance, will provide long-term support to Ukraine in its war and an element of deterrence from future attacks once the fighting stops.
It is a kind of buffer while Kyiv navigates a path to full membership to NATO.
Included on the table is the option of the kind of “Israel-style” security assurances that the United States provides to the Israeli government. This was first raised by Mr Biden in an interview with CNN at the weekend.
It is not clear whether the allies involved in this initiative – which is separate but complementary to the NATO discussions – will reach an agreement before the summit concludes but Vilnius would provide a timely backdrop to offset Ukrainian disappointment over its NATO aspirations.
World
US ‘destroying’ international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia ‘halfway’, Ukraine’s UK ambassador warns
The United States is “finally destroying” the international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia “halfway”, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK has warned.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi said Washington’s recent actions in relation to Moscow could lead to the collapse of NATO – with Europe becoming Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s next target.
“The failure to qualify actions of Russia as an aggression is a huge challenge for the entire world and Europe, in particular,” he told a conference at the Chatham House think tank.
Ukraine latest: ‘Watershed moment’ as Kremlin blasts Macron
“We see that it is not just the axis of evil and Russia trying to revise the world order, but the US is finally destroying this order.”
Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Pic: Reuters
Mr Zaluzhnyi, who took over as Kyiv’s ambassador to London in 2024 following three years as commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, also warned that the White House had “questioned the unity of the whole Western world” – suggesting NATO could cease to exist as a result.
It comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy scrambles to repair relations with US President Donald Trump following a dramatic row between the two men in the Oval Office last week.
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Mr Trump signalled on Tuesday that tensions could be easing, telling Congress he had received a letter from Mr Zelenskyy saying he was ready to sign a peace deal “at any time”.
Zelenskyy and Trump during their extraordinary Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters
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But on the same day, the US president ordered a sudden freeze on shipments of US military aid to Ukraine, and Washington has since paused intelligence sharing with Kyiv and halted cyber operations against Russia.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Mr Zaluzhnyi said the pause in cyber operations and an earlier decision by the US to oppose a UN resolution condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine were “a huge challenge for the entire world”.
He added that talks between the US and Russia – “headed by a war criminal” – showed the White House “makes steps towards the Kremlin, trying to meet them halfway”, warning Moscow’s next target “could be Europe”.
World
Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh being forced to fight for same military accused of genocide against their people
Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh is a sprawling mass of humanity.
It’s a sea of makeshift bamboo shelters, home to more than one million Rohingya refugees – a mainly Muslim minority from Rakhine state in Myanmar.
Some 700,000 fled their homeland back in 2017 – after the Myanmar military massacred thousands.
The army was accused of genocide by the United Nations.
The Rohingya refugees didn’t escape danger though.
Right now, violence is at its worst levels in the camps since 2017 and Rohingya people face a particularly cruel new threat – they’re being forced back to fight for the same Myanmar military accused of trying to wipe out their people.
A child at the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar
Militant groups are recruiting Rohingya men in the camps, some at gunpoint, and taking them back to Myanmar to fight for a force that’s losing ground.
Jaker is just 19.
We’ve changed his name to protect his identity.
He says he was abducted at gunpoint last year by a group of nine men in Cox’s.
They tied his hands with rope he says and took him to the border where he was taken by boat with three other men to fight for the Myanmar military.
“It was heartbreaking,” he told me. “They targeted poor children. The children of wealthy families only avoided it by paying money.”
And he says the impact has been deadly.
“Many of our Rohingya boys, who were taken by force from the camps, were killed in battle.”
Jaker speaks to Sky’s Cordelia Lynch
An aerial view of the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar
The situation in Cox’s is desperate.
People are disillusioned by poverty, violence and the plight of their own people and the civil war they ran from is getting worse.
In Rakhine, just across the border, there’s been a big shift in dynamics.
The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group has all but taken control of the state from the ruling military junta.
Both the military and the AA are accused of committing atrocities against Rohingya Muslims.
And whilst some Rohingya claim they’re being forced into the fray – dragged back to Myanmar from Bangladesh, others are willing to go.
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Teknaf in Cox’s Bazar – where refugees arrive from Myanmar after crossing the Naf River
Some are so aggrieved with the AA, they’re willing to support their former persecutors.
Abu Zar is one of those willing to take up arms.
But not for the military or AA, he says.
Everyone praying in the mosque with him is prepared to go back to protect their own cause he says – not anyone else’s.
“We want to fight for our rights because we have been demanding justice for a long time. But the situation has become unbearable,” he tells me.
Abu Zar has said he is willing to take up arms for his own cause
It’s estimated between 3,000 and 5,000 Rohingya have joined armed groups from this camp.
But the fight they are joining has become increasingly bloody.
In a cramped shelter, we meet Safura.
Safura came under fire as she fled Myanmar
Safura’s son Aman had his foot blown off
Five days ago she managed to get out of Myanmar but she had to be carried part of the way.
Her legs are riddled with bullet wounds and the pain is severe.
Her son, Aman, who lies on the floor next to her, has had his foot blown off.
They were injured she said, during an attack on her family home in the middle of the night.
“They entered our house and shot all my family members. My husband and mother-in-law were killed on the spot.”
The military denies forcing Rohingya to the battlefield. But the camps tell a different story- one of surging violence and vulnerability.
US President Donald Trump has told Gazans to hand over Israeli hostages or “you are dead”.
The threat, made over social media, came hours after the White House confirmed that US officials had broken with tradition to hold direct talks with Hamas.
The US has previously avoided direct contact with the group owing to Washington’s longstanding position not to negotiate with terrorists – with Hamas having been designated as a terrorist group in the US since 1997.
In a press conference on Wednesday, White House press secretary Ms Keavitt said there had been “ongoing talks and discussions” between the US officials and Hamas.
File pic: AP
But she would not be drawn on the substance of the talks – taking place in Doha, Qatar – between US officials and Hamas, but said Israel had been consulted.
Ms Leavitt continued: “Dialogue and talking to people around the world to do what’s in the best interest of the American people, is something that the president has proven is what he believes is a good faith, effort to do what’s right for the American people.”
There are “American lives at stake,” she added.
Adam Boehler, Mr Trump’s pick to be special envoy for hostage affairs, participated in the direct talks with Hamas.
A spokesperson for Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Israel had “expressed to the United States its position regarding direct talks with Hamas”.
Hours later, Mr Trump warned Hamas to hand over Israeli hostages or “it’s over for you” – adding: “This is your last warning”.
Hamas militants on the day of a hostage handover in Gaza in February. Pic: Reuters
On his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump wrote: “Release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered or it is over for you.
“Only sick and twisted people keep bodies and you are sick and twisted. I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say.”
Mr Trump met with freed Israeli hostages on Wednesday, something he referenced in his social media post, before adding: “This is your last warning. For the leadership of Hamas, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance.
“Also, to the people of Gaza, a beautiful future awaits, but not if you hold hostages. If you do, you are dead. Make a smart decision. Release the hostages now, or there will be hell to pay later.”
Israel estimates about 24 living hostages, including American citizen Edan Alexander, and the bodies of at least 35 others, are still believed to be in Gaza.
Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu in February. Pic: Reuters
The US has a long-held policy of not negotiating with terrorists – which it is breaking with these talks as Hamas has been designated a foreign terrorist organisation by the US government’s National Counterterrorism Center since 1997.
The discussions come as a fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire continues to hold, but its future is uncertain.
Palestinians amid the rubble in the southern Gaza strip. Pic: Reuters
Mr Trump has signalled he has no intention of pushing the Israeli prime minister away from a return to combat if Hamas does not agree to terms of a new ceasefire proposal – which, Israel says, has been drafted by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.
The new plan would require Hamas to release half its remaining hostages – the group’s main bargaining chip – in exchange for a ceasefire extension and a promise to negotiate a lasting truce.
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Israel has made no mention of releasing more Palestinian prisoners, a key component of the first phase.
Fighting in Gaza has been halted since 19 January.
Hamas has exchanged 33 Israeli and five Thai hostages for some 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
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