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Do you want to believe that New York City is in an urban doom cycle?

Its easy if you just ignore indisputable facts.

Take major crimes, an NYPD metric thats distorted upward by skyrocketing auto theft even as the crimes we fear most murder, shootings, and rape continue to ebb lower from last years totals.

Surprise! Murders are on track to be 40% fewer this year than they were in crime-busting Rudy Giulianis last two years as mayor when they were 673 and 649 respectively.

At the midpoint of 2023, weve had 193 murders, on track for a total of around 400 down from 488 in 2021 and 438 in 2022.

Ah, but there were only 319 murders in 2019!

True, but nobody foresaw the end of the world in 2010 when murders jumped to 536 over 471 in 2009 even though then-Mayor Michael Bloombergs stop-and-frisk was in full force.

As the late, great Yankees skipper Casey Stengel often said, you can look it up.

Misperceptions of crime do have a rational basis, though: an ever-increasing street disorder that might not kill but threatens us in other ways lawless cyclists, open-air drug use, unchecked shoplifting, and raving maniacs who might or might not come at us with knives.

The sense of a city sprung and lurching, beyond the governments will or ability to rein in, creates a mood where actual violent crime may seem more prevalent than it is.

But the supposed inevitability of urban collapse due to remote work another article of faith among New Yorks dark prophets has no visible basis other than suspect computer models. 

Never mind that sidewalks are packed, subway riderships up and apartments are in more demand than ever were doomed!

A recent, endlessly cited paper titled Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse by three learned scholars Arpit Gupta of NYU and Vrinda Mittal and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh of Columbia University declared that fewer employees working in offices portend the collapse of property values which in turn portends the collapse of the municipal treasury and, by implication, the end of life on earth as we know it.

The portrayal of a city in its death throes casts a destructive damper on the Big Apple as it continues its fitful recovery from the COVID pandemic.

Dystopian claims take on an aura of unchallengeable truth for those impressed with mathematical equations unintelligible to anyone without a Ph. D.

Who could argue with them?

Well, maybe anybody who ever got a sunburn after a computer model warned of downpours.

The authors are great with numbers but out of touch with Manhattan real-estate reality.

For starters, they rely on Kastle Systems, a security-services provider, to quantify todays supposedly paltry physical office presence a mere 50%, Kastle says. 

But Kastles survey has been widely debunked for its inadequate, worst-case sample.

It covers mostly second-tier office buildings but not the superior buildings owned by the citys 10 largest landlords such as SL Green, Vornado Realty Trust, and Related Companies.

Those so-called Class-A and A-plus properties are the heart of Manhattans half-billion-square-foot office inventory.

Theyre much more than half full because theyre leased to companies that require the most office attendance financial institutions and law firms. 

The Real Estate Board of New York and the Partnership for New York City report considerably higher occupancy than Kastles up to 90% in some premier locations.

But theyd undercut Apocalypse right at the starting gate. 

Sure, commercial landlords are under pressure.

Owners of some older buildings could face bankruptcy.

But even if the overall value of New York City office locations falls 43.9% by 2029 an Apocalypse projection shared by no other analysis would it be the end of the world for the city as a whole?

Maybe it would if there were no actual people involved such as elected officials, landlords, other business leaders, and people just sick of working remotely to arrest the decline. 

Just as Tom Hanks as Capt. Chesley Sullenberger shredded investigators attempt to blame him for the crash computers showed could have been avoided Lets get serious you have not taken into account the human factor so does Apocalypse fall apart the moment whats now called human agency is added. 

Maybe more employees will come back to offices a trend thats gaining traction as bosses read them the riot act.

Landlords might find that they need as much space as before even if employees only come in three or four days a week.

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Maybe owners will find ways to convert more office buildings to other uses than is currently thought possible.

Maybe another Wall Street boom will impel more companies to expand, as private equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice just did by doubling its square footage in a move to 550 Madison Ave.

The assumption of shrunken tax revenue is based on the notion that buildings will lose value due to remote work.

But will they?

SL Green just sold a 49% share of 245 Park Ave. to Japans Mori Trust in a deal that values the nearly 60-year-old property at $2 billion.

Thats hardly a catastrophic plunge from the towers last sale price of $2.2 billion in 2017 when the market was at its peak.

Comptroller Brad Lander reported last week to some surprise that office-building values actually increased from 2021 to 2022 to 97% of pre-pandemic levels.

He wrote that even if office values were to fall by 40%, it would cost the city no more than $1.1 billion in annual property tax revenue by 2027 a mere 3% of all property tax collections, only 1% of the overall budget and well within the range in which tax revenues can ordinarily vary.

For all its intimidating graphs and equations, Apocalypse works the same sensationalist street as alarmist, headline-grabbing forecasts by credentialed experts that turned out to be bogus.

There was no population bomb that caused global famine as foreseen by Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne Howland Ehrlich in 1968; no Great Depression of 1990 as predicted by best-selling economist Ravi Batra in 1987; and no World War III with Japan as envisioned by geopolitical analysts George Friedman and Meredith LeBard 

Therell be no real estate apocalypse, either. 

Hold the taps for New York City, psychos, and all.

Theres nothing certain about our future, of course.

But one day well look back on the Doom Loop and marvel that it panicked so many of us who are glad to be here and plan to stay.

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Politics

Welfare concessions ‘common sense’, says PM – as he defends U-turn

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Welfare concessions 'common sense', says PM - as he defends U-turn

Sir Keir Starmer said changes to his welfare bill “strike the right balance” after making concessions to his backbench MPs.

The prime minister described the U-turn as “common sense” and said it means “we can now get on with the job”.

Politics Live: Starmer defends U-turn

Sir Keir faced a significant rebellion over plans to cut sickness and disability benefits as part of a package he said would shave £5bn off the welfare bill and get more people into work.

Speaking to reporters on Friday, he stood by his position that the welfare system needs reform as “it doesn’t work, and it traps people”.

He added: “We need to get it right. That’s why we’ve been talking to colleagues and having a constructive discussion.

“We’ve now arrived at a package that delivers on the principles with some adjustments, and that’s the right reform, and I’m really pleased now that we’re able to take this forward.

“For me, getting that package adjusted in that way is the right thing to do, it means it’s the right balance, it’s common sense that we can now get on with it.”

The concessions include exempting existing Personal Independence Payment claimants (PIP) from the stricter new criteria, while the universal credit health top-up will only be cut and frozen for new applications.

Analysis: Welfare bill U-turn a humiliating blow for Starmer

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“No leadership” in Labour says MP

More money will also be front-loaded into helping people find jobs, though it is not clear how much beyond the £1bn already announced.

The changes came after 127 Labour MPs signed an amendment calling for the cuts to be delayed and consulted on with disabled people.

Rebels feared the reforms wouldn’t actually help people find work while pushing thousands of disabled people and children into poverty, as per the government’s own impact assessment.

The discontent threatened to derail the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill when it comes before the Commons for a vote on Tuesday, on the week that marks a year of Starmer in government.

Asked what he would do about a “hole” in the public finances that the changes are said to leave, Sir Keir said the funding will be set out in the autumn budget “in the usual way”.

The concessions on PIP alone will protect an estimated 370,000 people currently receiving the allowance who were set to lose out following reassessment.

Economists at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Resolution Foundation have both suggested that the changes could reduce savings intended in the original package by up to £3bn.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is also under pressure to find money to pay for the U-turn on cuts to winter fuel, which followed a drubbing at the local elections in May.

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‘This week is going to haunt the prime minister,’ says Sky’s Ali Fortescue .

Asked about the series of U-turns, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall earlier said: “Sometimes there’s strength in listening.

“I really believe that to be the case, that you end up in the right position when you talk to all of those with knowledge and experience and actually, if you want decisions to be the right ones and to last for generations to come, I believe that’s how you make the right changes.”

However, she would not guarantee the bill will pass next week.

Some 83 Labour MPs would need to rebel for the government to be defeated.

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Govt makes offer to rebels on welfare reforms

Last night Dame Meg Hillier, one of the leading rebel voices, hailed the concessions as “massive changes” to protect vulnerable people and involve disabled people in the design of future reforms.

However, not all the rebels have been satisfied with the changes, with several suggesting they would create a “two-tier system”. Sky News is aware of at least 20 MPs who currently intend to still vote against. Many others are undecided.

The concessions came after Downing Street publicly stuck to its guns while engaging in a frantic ring-around to get rebels onside, which further angered MPs.

Many have called for a reset in relations with Downing Street, as the fallout from the rebellion threatens to cause lasting damage.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch criticised the U-turn, saying the government’s failure to make “minor savings” on welfare showed they were unable to deal with major issues.

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US

US Supreme Court curbs injunctions that blocked Donald Trump’s birthright citizenship plan

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US Supreme Court curbs injunctions that blocked Donald Trump's birthright citizenship plan

Donald Trump’s administration will be allowed to take steps to implement its proposal to end automatic birthright citizenship in the US following a decision by the Supreme Court.

Under the current rules, nearly anyone born on US territory has automatic citizenship rights – commonly known as “birthright citizenship”.

But in January, on his first day back in the White House, Trump signed an executive order aimed at ending that right.

A series of lawsuits followed, with district courts issuing nationwide injunctions aiming to block the order from taking effect.

The Supreme Court on Friday voted 6-3 to allow the Trump administration to narrow the scope of nationwide injunctions imposed by judges so that they apply only to states, groups and individuals that sued.

This means the birthright citizenship proposal can likely move forward at least in part in the states that challenged it, as well as those that did not.

Protests in support of birthright citizenship in Washington DC in May. Pic: AP
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Campaigners argue that restricting automatic birthright citizenship is an erosion of people’s constitutional rights. Pic: AP

People demonstrating outside the Supreme Court in May against plans to restrict automatic birthright citizenship. Pic: Reuters
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People demonstrated outside the Supreme Court in May. Pic: Reuters

The US president responded with a post on Truth Social by welcoming the ruling as a “giant win”.

At a news conference at the White House, he said: “In recent months, we’ve seen a handful of radical left judges effectively try to overrule the rightful powers of the president… to dictate the law for the entire nation… this was a colossal abuse of power.”

He went on to suggest the current birthright was being abused and had originally been designed for a different era, to give the descendants of slaves the right to citizenship.

“It wasn’t meant for people trying to scam the system and come into the country on a vacation. It was meant for the babies of slaves. Hundreds of thousands of people are pouring into our country under birthright citizenship,” he said.

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In a wide-ranging news conference, he also said he would consider bombing Iran again if they continued their nuclear programme and expects the country to open itself to international inspections.

He also said he was preparing fresh trade tariffs for several countries and had secured mineral rights in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is signing a peace deal with Rwanda at the White House to end years of fighting.

Friday’s Supreme Court decision was focused on cases filed in Maryland, Massachusetts and Washington state.

The policy remains blocked for now in one additional state, New Hampshire, as a result of a separate lawsuit that is not before the Supreme Court.

Mr Trump’s plan has the backing of 21 other states.

People demonstrate in front of the Supreme Court in Washington regarding birthright citizenship
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Pic: picture-alliance/dpa/AP

Friday’s ruling was decided on a 6-3 vote following a divide on ideological lines, with conservatives in the majority and liberals in dissent.

Mr Trump previously helped shape the makeup of the court with the appointment of three judges, ensuring a 6-3 conservative majority, though past rulings have still not always gone in his favour.

It has long been widely accepted, including by legal scholars on the left and right in the US, that the Constitution’s 14th Amendment confers automatic citizenship to almost anyone born in the United States.

Mr Trump wants that restricted to only those with at least one parent who is a US citizen or permanent resident.

Friday’s ruling does not examine the legal merits of the policy, but only whether judges had the authority to put it on hold across the entire country.

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As a result of the ruling, the proposal can potentially move forward nationwide, although individuals could still file their own lawsuits at the state level.

Those currently challenging the policy could also still reinstate injunctions which are less broad in scope.

The US president and his allies have been harshly critical of judges who have blocked aspects of his agenda, although it is not a new phenomenon for courts to impose nationwide injunctions.

His administration has battled against judges who have issued nationwide injunctions in response to a bold and aggressive use of executive power to implement a controversial agenda, including ramping up deportations, downsizing federal agencies, targeting law firms and universities and firing thousands of federal employees.

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US

Man kicks customs dog at Washington Dulles International Airport, say authorities

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Man kicks customs dog at Washington Dulles International Airport, say authorities

An Egyptian man has admitted federal charges after kicking a customs dog at a US airport, authorities say.

Hamad Ramadan Bayoumy Aly Marie, 70, pleaded guilty to “harming animals used in law enforcement” during an appearance in the US District Court of eastern Virginia on Wednesday.

Five-year-old male beagle Freddie allegedly detected more than 100lbs (45kg) of undeclared agricultural products in Marie’s luggage after he arrived at Washington Dulles International Airport from Cairo, Egypt, on Tuesday.

When Freddie’s handler started questioning the passenger, he kicked the 25lb (11kg) animal so hard that it was lifted off the ground, according to US Customs and Border Protection.

Pic:US Customs and Border Contro
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CCTV captured the moment Freddie was kicked. Pic: US Homeland Security

A veterinarian determined that Freddie suffered contusions to his right rib area as a result of being kicked.

Marie was placed in handcuffs by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers, who found 55lbs (24.9kg) of beef meat, 44lbs (20kg) of rice, 15lbs (6.8kg) of eggplant, cucumbers and bellpeppers, 2lbs (0.9kg) of corn seeds, and 1lb (0.5kg) of herbs in his luggage, according to authorities.

All agricultural products were seized as they are prohibited, to prevent the introduction of harmful plant pests and foreign animal diseases from entering the country.

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“Being caught deliberately smuggling well over 100lbs of undeclared and prohibited agricultural products does not give one permission to violently assault a defenceless Customs and Border Protection beagle,” said Christine Waugh, the CBP’s director for the area port of Washington DC.

“We rely heavily on our K9 partners and Freddie was just doing his job.

“Any malicious attack on one of us is an attack on all of us, and CBP will continue to work with our investigating and prosecuting partners to deal swift and severe justice to perpetrators.”

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Marie was credited with time served after being taken into custody on Tuesday and was ordered to pay the veterinarian’s fee of $840 (£612) for Freddie’s treatment, a court filing shows.

He was also told to immediately report to CBP for removal from the US, and he left the country on a flight to Egypt at 12.30pm local time on Thursday.

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