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Do you want to believe that New York City is in an urban doom cycle?

Its easy if you just ignore indisputable facts.

Take major crimes, an NYPD metric thats distorted upward by skyrocketing auto theft even as the crimes we fear most murder, shootings, and rape continue to ebb lower from last years totals.

Surprise! Murders are on track to be 40% fewer this year than they were in crime-busting Rudy Giulianis last two years as mayor when they were 673 and 649 respectively.

At the midpoint of 2023, weve had 193 murders, on track for a total of around 400 down from 488 in 2021 and 438 in 2022.

Ah, but there were only 319 murders in 2019!

True, but nobody foresaw the end of the world in 2010 when murders jumped to 536 over 471 in 2009 even though then-Mayor Michael Bloombergs stop-and-frisk was in full force.

As the late, great Yankees skipper Casey Stengel often said, you can look it up.

Misperceptions of crime do have a rational basis, though: an ever-increasing street disorder that might not kill but threatens us in other ways lawless cyclists, open-air drug use, unchecked shoplifting, and raving maniacs who might or might not come at us with knives.

The sense of a city sprung and lurching, beyond the governments will or ability to rein in, creates a mood where actual violent crime may seem more prevalent than it is.

But the supposed inevitability of urban collapse due to remote work another article of faith among New Yorks dark prophets has no visible basis other than suspect computer models. 

Never mind that sidewalks are packed, subway riderships up and apartments are in more demand than ever were doomed!

A recent, endlessly cited paper titled Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse by three learned scholars Arpit Gupta of NYU and Vrinda Mittal and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh of Columbia University declared that fewer employees working in offices portend the collapse of property values which in turn portends the collapse of the municipal treasury and, by implication, the end of life on earth as we know it.

The portrayal of a city in its death throes casts a destructive damper on the Big Apple as it continues its fitful recovery from the COVID pandemic.

Dystopian claims take on an aura of unchallengeable truth for those impressed with mathematical equations unintelligible to anyone without a Ph. D.

Who could argue with them?

Well, maybe anybody who ever got a sunburn after a computer model warned of downpours.

The authors are great with numbers but out of touch with Manhattan real-estate reality.

For starters, they rely on Kastle Systems, a security-services provider, to quantify todays supposedly paltry physical office presence a mere 50%, Kastle says. 

But Kastles survey has been widely debunked for its inadequate, worst-case sample.

It covers mostly second-tier office buildings but not the superior buildings owned by the citys 10 largest landlords such as SL Green, Vornado Realty Trust, and Related Companies.

Those so-called Class-A and A-plus properties are the heart of Manhattans half-billion-square-foot office inventory.

Theyre much more than half full because theyre leased to companies that require the most office attendance financial institutions and law firms. 

The Real Estate Board of New York and the Partnership for New York City report considerably higher occupancy than Kastles up to 90% in some premier locations.

But theyd undercut Apocalypse right at the starting gate. 

Sure, commercial landlords are under pressure.

Owners of some older buildings could face bankruptcy.

But even if the overall value of New York City office locations falls 43.9% by 2029 an Apocalypse projection shared by no other analysis would it be the end of the world for the city as a whole?

Maybe it would if there were no actual people involved such as elected officials, landlords, other business leaders, and people just sick of working remotely to arrest the decline. 

Just as Tom Hanks as Capt. Chesley Sullenberger shredded investigators attempt to blame him for the crash computers showed could have been avoided Lets get serious you have not taken into account the human factor so does Apocalypse fall apart the moment whats now called human agency is added. 

Maybe more employees will come back to offices a trend thats gaining traction as bosses read them the riot act.

Landlords might find that they need as much space as before even if employees only come in three or four days a week.

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Maybe owners will find ways to convert more office buildings to other uses than is currently thought possible.

Maybe another Wall Street boom will impel more companies to expand, as private equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice just did by doubling its square footage in a move to 550 Madison Ave.

The assumption of shrunken tax revenue is based on the notion that buildings will lose value due to remote work.

But will they?

SL Green just sold a 49% share of 245 Park Ave. to Japans Mori Trust in a deal that values the nearly 60-year-old property at $2 billion.

Thats hardly a catastrophic plunge from the towers last sale price of $2.2 billion in 2017 when the market was at its peak.

Comptroller Brad Lander reported last week to some surprise that office-building values actually increased from 2021 to 2022 to 97% of pre-pandemic levels.

He wrote that even if office values were to fall by 40%, it would cost the city no more than $1.1 billion in annual property tax revenue by 2027 a mere 3% of all property tax collections, only 1% of the overall budget and well within the range in which tax revenues can ordinarily vary.

For all its intimidating graphs and equations, Apocalypse works the same sensationalist street as alarmist, headline-grabbing forecasts by credentialed experts that turned out to be bogus.

There was no population bomb that caused global famine as foreseen by Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne Howland Ehrlich in 1968; no Great Depression of 1990 as predicted by best-selling economist Ravi Batra in 1987; and no World War III with Japan as envisioned by geopolitical analysts George Friedman and Meredith LeBard 

Therell be no real estate apocalypse, either. 

Hold the taps for New York City, psychos, and all.

Theres nothing certain about our future, of course.

But one day well look back on the Doom Loop and marvel that it panicked so many of us who are glad to be here and plan to stay.

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NHL draft tracker: Scouting notes and team fits for every first-rounder

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NHL draft tracker: Scouting notes and team fits for every first-rounder

The 2025 NHL draft is taking place on Friday (Round 1) and Saturday (Rounds 2-7) at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles.

This page will be your home for the entire event, as each pick is added below, including scouting notes and team fit analysis for the first-rounders.

More: Prospect rankings
Draft week buzz
Late-round gems
Needs for all 32 teams


Round 1

Team: Erie (OHL)
DOB: 09/05/2007 | Ht: 6-1.75 | Wt: 183 | Shot: L
2024-25 stats: GP: 17 | G: 7 | A: 15 | P: 22

Scouting notes: Schaefer is projected to become a true No. 1 cornerstone for years to come. A dynamic presence at both ends of the ice, he skates with ease and elite mobility to shut down opponents in all situations, while creating offense with quality transition play.

Executives and scouts view him as a future elite NHL defenseman and a foundational piece for a championship-caliber roster. Schaefer’s ability to control play from the blue line, play tough matchups, and run a power play — combined with the belief in his character and leadership — result in many believing that Schaefer has the tools to become a top-10 defender in the league, while wearing a letter as part of a team’s leadership group.

How he fits: After trading Noah Dobson earlier in the day, the Islanders drafted their franchise cornerstone defender. Schaefer does everything well, and is a dynamic skater with elite mobility. He will take on the toughest matchups, help the Islanders exit the zone with smooth passes and carry outs, and drive offense from the back end. He’s a future No. 1 defenseman who will log 25-28 minutes per night and run the power play.

Schaefer’s ability to dictate play from the back end is franchise-changing for the Isles. Schaefer will attend development camp next week, and it is highly likely he starts the season in the NHL lineup. Don’t be surprised if Schaefer is running the power play and logging major minutes by November.

A very emotional Schaefer hugged his family and pulled on the Isles jersey for the first time, with a cancer patch. Through tears, he shared his excitement and emotion, and gained the hearts of a lot more than just Isles fans.


Team: Saginaw (OHL)
DOB: 02/16/2007 | Ht: 6-0.75 | Wt: 184 | Shot: L
2024-25 stats: GP: 65 | G: 62 | A: 72 | P: 134

Scouting notes: Granted exceptional status in the OHL in 2022, Misa delivered one of the most remarkable goal-scoring seasons in recent memory in 2024-25, netting 62 goals in just 65 games. He projects to be a top-line forward capable of consistently exceeding 90 points per season in the NHL.

Misa’s offensive instincts are elite. He processes the game at a high level and executes at top speed. Scouts believe he is NHL-ready and has the potential to become an elite top-line center. Away from the puck, Misa excels at finding soft areas in coverage and has a flair for delivering in clutch moments. His combination of high-end playmaking and goal-scoring ability makes him a constant dual threat in the offensive zone.

How he fits: The Sharks kept everyone guessing until the very last moment, but ultimately selected Misa. He is a special talent and adds a second elite two-way center to the organization. He projects as a first-line star, with dual-threat playmaking and scoring ability — notching 62 goals in 65 OHL games.

If Misa’s two-way game continues to improve, there’s a real chance the Sharks will have two centers capable of dominating play in all three zones with 2024 No. 1 pick Macklin Celebrini already in place. On the power play, Misa can facilitate, be a shooting threat and carry the puck on entries. Because of his dual-threat capabilities, he can play the bumper, the flank or down low. With this selection, the Sharks have the potential to feature the best one-two punch down the middle for years to come.


Team: Djurgarden (SWEDEN-2)
DOB: 05/07/2007 | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 198 | Shot: L
2024-25 stats: GP: 29 | G: 11 | A: 14 | P: 25

Scouting notes: Frondell is a versatile two-way forward that plays both center and right wing. His flexibility is attractive to teams, although many believe he is most likely to reach his potential as a winger in the NHL.

Frondell is coming off one of the most productive seasons by an under-18 player in Allsvenskan history, giving him a confident projection as a first-line NHL forward. He’s a cerebral player, who picks apart defenders in one-on-one situations and defensive coverage in offensive zone play. The details of Frondell’s game are translatable, including excellent forechecking ability, willingness to attack the middle of the ice and high-end anticipation on both sides of the puck.

He has shown play-driving capabilities against men in the Allsvenskan, which has translated to the NHL for other prospects in the past. He’s projected to produce between 75-85 points per season. His style of play translates well and has executives excited about his ability to step in the league in the next 18 months.

How he fits: It was no secret that Chicago wanted to add some size up front, and Frondell is exactly that. He can play center or the wing, and brings an excellent two-way game. He confidently projects as a first-line forward that beats defenders one-on-one, drives play on both sides of the puck, and should score nearly a point per game.

He plays on the inside of the ice and has the ability to score 30-plus goals in the NHL because of his excellent shot. Frondell is a year away from playing in the NHL, and probably two or three from hitting his potential as a top-line forward who drives play. Chicago can play him behind Connor Bedard up the middle, or on Bedard’s line to capitalize on the versatility he brings.


Team: Moncton (QMJHL)
DOB: 04/11/2007 | Ht: 6-1.5 | Wt: 178 | Shot: L
2024-25 stats: GP: 56 | G: 35 | A: 49 | P: 84

Scouting notes: Described as a “coach’s dream” because of his ability to take an offensive or checking assignment and execute consistently. He makes smart, simple plays, provides a physical presence on the forecheck and generally agitates and makes life difficult on defenders.

He projects to be a quality second-line center with a decent chance of becoming a first-line player. He’s cerebral, with quick hands and playmaking ability. He’s not flashy, but he’s consistently effective and makes intelligent plays with the puck. As one scouting director described “he’s the type of player you win with.” Some have quietly compared him to Patrice Bergeron and Jonathan Toews, who are lofty comparisons, to say the very least.

How he fits: The Mammoth kept everyone guessing, would they trade or keep the pick. Ultimately, they kept the pick and selected Desnoyers. He can play in any situation as one of the best two-way players available. He’s a serial winner who plays whatever style of game required to win. If he needs to produce offense, he does. If he needs to shut down the opponent’s best, he does that too.

Utah needed some size and two-way capability to mesh with Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller and Dylan Guenther, and Caleb Desnoyers is exactly that. He’ll be NHL-ready a lot sooner than people think because his professional details are top-notch. He projects as a play-driving, two-way, second line center that the Mammoth will turn to in key situations. As noted above, there’s a lot of Jonathan Toews in Desnoyers’ game, which will excite Mammoth fans, management and coaches.


Team: Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
DOB: 03/16/2007 | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 178 | Shot: R
2024-25 stats: GP: 57 | G: 33 | A: 39 | P: 72

Scouting notes: A Swiss Army knife type of player who will be most effective on the wing because of his strong wall play, Martin projects as a middle-six forward capable of scoring 20 goals routinely, with upside as a second-line forward.

He’s a wrecking ball that will bring value in all three zones, on and off the puck. Martin has scouts raving about him after an excellent performance at the IIHF under-18 championship, with many opining that he could go very early in the first round. He’s a workhorse without an off switch, who brings a blend of physicality and hard skill. He’s a nightmare to contain with his brute strength, and forces defenders into precarious positions with good speed and willingness to make “winning” plays.

Several teams mentioned how impressive Martin was during interviews at the combine. Combine an attractive personality with the hard-nosed style, and it forms a rare combination that is valuable to many scouts who believe he’s the type of player teams need to win in the playoffs. Surely, his mention of Conn Smythe winner Sam Bennett as a role model grabbed attention.


6. Philadelphia Flyers
7. Boston Bruins
8. Seattle Kraken
9. Buffalo Sabres
10. Anaheim Ducks
11. Pittsburgh Penguins
12. Pittsburgh Penguins (from NYR)
13. Detroit Red Wings
14. Columbus Blue Jackets
15. Vancouver Canucks
16. New York Islanders (from CGY via MTL)
17. New York Islanders (from MTL)
18. Calgary Flames (from NJ)
19. St. Louis Blues
20. Columbus Blue Jackets (from MIN)
21. Ottawa Senators
22. Philadelphia Flyers (from COL)
23. Nashville Predators (from TB)
24. Los Angeles Kings
25. Chicago Blackhawks (from TOR)
26. Nashville Predators (from VGK via SJ)
27. Washington Capitals
28. Winnipeg Jets
29. Carolina Hurricanes
30. San Jose Sharks (from DAL)
31. Philadelphia Flyers (from EDM)
32. Calgary Flames (from FLA)

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Isles draft Schaefer No. 1; Misa goes 2nd to Sharks

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Isles draft Schaefer No. 1; Misa goes 2nd to Sharks

LOS ANGELES — The New York Islanders selected gifted defenseman Matthew Schaefer with the No. 1 pick in the NHL draft Friday night.

High-scoring forward Michael Misa went second overall to the San Jose Sharks, and the Chicago Blackhawks took Swedish forward Anton Frondell third at the Peacock Theater in downtown Los Angeles..

The Islanders surprised nobody by using their first No. 1 selection since 2009 on the 17-year-old Schaefer, a 6-foot-2 blueliner from Hamilton, Ontario, who spent the past two seasons with the Ontario Hockey League’s Erie Otters.

He played only 17 games last season — collecting seven goals and 22 points — before breaking his collarbone in December, but Schaefer’s acumen on both ends of the ice still propelled him to the top of nearly all draft boards.

An elite puck-mover and brilliant skater with a top-end, two-way transition game, Schaefer has great poise, posture and edges that allow him to not only carry play from end to end but close quickly on opponents, shut down the rush and be a playmaker in his own right.

Schaefer is just the fifth defenseman drafted No. 1 overall in the NHL draft since 2000, and the first since Owen Power went to Buffalo in 2021.

Schaefer persevered through tragedy to reach this milestone. His mother, Jennifer, died of cancer 16 months ago. When Schaefer pulled on his Islanders sweater for the first time, he kissed the pink ribbon patch on the chest representing breast cancer awareness before breaking into tears.

“I appreciate you taking a chance on me,” Schaefer said in a video conference call with the Islanders’ front office. “I promise I won’t disappoint, but especially I just want to say to my mom and all my family and friends, thanks for everything.”

Misa tore up the OHL last season as the captain of the Saginaw Spirit, scoring 62 goals and 134 points in just 65 games. He joins a struggling Sharks organization that chose Will Smith fourth overall in 2023 and got center Macklin Celebrini with the first overall pick a year ago.

“We just thought it was a perfect fit with what we already have here,” Sharks general manager Mike Grier said. “Another guy to step in and be a nightmare matchup for people.”

An offensive force whose keen defensive instinct matches his natural scoring and playmaking skills, Misa, at 6-foot-1, brings physicality and bodily sacrifice too to give him a truly well-rounded game. His move permanently back to center this season also showed how he will insert himself through all facets of the game and he can fill that top six forward role in the NHL.

Frondell excelled as a 17-year-old forward last season with Djurgården in Sweden’s second division, showing off a two-way game that allowed him to push Misa on some draft boards. At 6-foot-2, he could provide a large complement to Connor Bedard.

The Islanders won the lottery to pick first in a draft that is packed with talent — while missing a few staples of recent drafts.

There was no absolute lock of a No. 1 pick in this field, although Schaefer clearly came out on top, and the draft also lacked the centralized structure that has long been a staple of this annual exercise. The 32 teams’ various executives are mostly at home, not strewn across the draft floor.

ESPN’s Kristen Shilton and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Panthers keep playoff MVP Bennett on 8-year deal

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Panthers keep playoff MVP Bennett on 8-year deal

Florida Panthers playoff MVP Sam Bennett told fans during the team’s Stanley Cup celebrations this week that he wasn’t leaving.

He was a man of his word.

Bennett signed an eight-year contract extension with Florida, the team announced hours before the NHL draft Friday night. He was set to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, when he would have been one of the most coveted centers available.

Bennett’s new contract has a salary cap hit of $8 million annually, up from $4.425 million on his previous contract but below what Bennett was expected to be offered from other teams as a free agent. The Panthers are one of several NHL teams that play in a state with no income tax, which has become a hot-button issue in the league as teams such as Florida, Tampa Bay and Vegas have all won Stanley Cups recently.

Bennett, 29, had 25 goals and 26 assists in 76 games during the regular season. To say he levels up in the playoffs would be an understatement: Bennett had 11 goals and 12 assists (23 points) in 21 games, playing a physical game that resulted in him winning the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP. Last postseason, Bennett had 14 points in 19 playoff games during the Panthers’ first of back-to-back Stanley Cup wins.

“Sam is a special player who has mastered a unique blend of skill and physicality in his game, becoming one of the most impactful postseason performers of his generation,” Panthers GM Bill Zito said. “He played an integral role in our two Stanley Cup championships, earning the franchise’s first Conn Smythe Trophy and is a dedicated contributor to our South Florida community off the ice. We are thrilled that he will continue his career with the Panthers.”

In his 691 games with the Panthers and Calgary Flames, from which Florida acquired him in 2021, Bennett has 162 goals and 174 assists.

Bennett was one of three high-profile pending unrestricted free agents for the Panthers this offseason, along with winger Brad Marchand and defenseman Aaron Ekblad.

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