Airbnb bookings have declined over the past year in cities like Austin and San Francisco that have historically been popular destinations for short-term rentals, prompting concern over the economic uncertainty wracking urban areas and the prospect of a “doom loop” developing.
Nick Gerli, the CEO of Austin-based Reventure Consulting, recently tweeted that the “Airbnb collapse is real” and that, “Revenues are down nearly 50 percent in cities like Phoenix and Austin.”
He went on to say, “Watch out for a wave of forced selling from Airbnb owners later this year in the areas hardest hit by the revenue collapse.”
Gerli cited AllTheRooms data which showed a 48.6% year-over-year decline in the average revenue per available listing in the three-month period ending in May for the Austin metropolitan area.
He attributed the decline to the end of pandemic-era migration, tweeting: “The pandemic is over. Fewer people are working from home / vacationing in states like Montana, Texas, and Tennessee. So the demand is way down. Just as the Airbnb supply went way up. So you get a crash.”
An Airbnb spokesperson told FOX Business, “The data is not consistent with our own data. As we said during our Q1 earnings, more guests are traveling on Airbnb than ever before, with Nights and Experiences Booked growing 19% in Q1 2023 compared to a year ago.”
Jamie Lane, the chief economist and SVP of analytics at AirDNA, also pushed back on the notion of a major decline in short-term rentals.
Lane tweeted an analysis using AirDNA data of the same metro areas covered in Gerlis analysis which found an average decline of 3.6% rather than 40%.
The AirDNA data showed the Austin metro area experienced a 7.2% year-over-year decline in revenue per available listing for the same three-month period ending May 2023.
The San Francisco Standard reported that data from AirDNA found that nights stayed in vacation rentals in San Francisco were down 29% in May 2023 compared to May 2019.
The outlet also spoke to several Bay Area homeowners who rent out rooms through Airbnb, including host Keith Freedman, who estimated that prices for San Francisco Airbnbs are down about 40% from last year and occupancy has declined 20% to 25%.
Separately, Gerli tweeted data showing that median rents in the Austin metro area declined 6% year-over-year while the San Francisco metro area experienced a 4% decline, which he said could also contribute to owners being forced to sell in the second half of this year.
Some of the decline in rents could be attributed to slowing population growth in those metro areas.
While the Austin area has seen rapid growth over the past decade, particularly in the suburbs outside the city limits, the Census Bureau estimates that Austins population grew 1.3% from April 2020 to July 2022.
Unlike Austin, San Francisco’s population growth has been on a downward trend in recent years.
The Census Bureau estimates that San Francisco Countys population declined by 7.5% from April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2022.
Slowing population growth or overall declines in a citys population raises the prospect of an “urban doom loop” developing.
An urban doom loop involves a decline in workers in offices in city centers, which results in businesses shrinking their office footprint and their rental overhead.
The decline in demand causes real estate prices to fall, which in turn reduces property tax revenue while other sources of tax revenue, like sales tax, also take a hit due to the reduced traffic in downtown areas.
As the overall tax base declines, it becomes harder for city governments to fund services like law enforcement, which can lead to a rise in crime that makes downtown areas less desirable, worsening the “doom loop.”
Swedish police have said around 10 people have been killed at an adult education centre, in what the country’s prime minister said is the worst mass shooting in Sweden’s history.
The attack happened at around 12.30pm local time (11.30am UK time) at Campus Risbergska in the town of Orebro, around 200km (125 miles) west of the capital Stockholm.
A spokesperson told a news conference on Tuesday evening that police believe the “primary perpetrator” is dead and acted alone. They do not expect more attacks, the spokesperson added.
Police said they carried out investigations at various addresses in Orebro, with technical personnel working at the scene.
“At present, the police believe that the perpetrator acted alone, but we cannot rule out more perpetrators connected to the incident,” the update on the Swedish police’s website said.
Police also said they do not know the motive but do not believe it is terrorism, adding they “had no warning sign” about the attack.
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Officers are working to identify the perpetrator and the victims.
The damage at the crime scene was so extensive that investigators were unable to be more definitive on the number killed, said Roberto Eid Forest, head of the local police.
“When it comes to saying anything more about the perpetrator, it is still very early. The operation is ongoing and that will undoubtedly become clearer. But we are working very intensively right now,” Mr Forest said.
He described the attack as a “horrible” incident, calling it “exceptional” and a “nightmare”.
The suspected gunman had not previously been known to police, Mr Forest said..
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Speaking at a press conference this evening, Sweden’s prime minister Ulf Kristersson said the tragedy is the worst mass shooting in the country’s history.
“Today, we have witnessed brutal, deadly violence against completely innocent people,” Mr Kristersson told reporters.
“This is the worst mass shooting in Swedish history. Many questions remain unanswered, and I cannot provide those answers either.
“But the time will come when we will know what happened, how it could occur, and what motives may have been behind it. Let us not speculate,” he said.
Meanwhile, the country’s king Carl XVI Gustaf said the shooting was a “terrible atrocity”.
“We send our condolences tonight to the families and friends of the deceased. Our thoughts at this time also go to the injured and their relatives, as well as to others affected.
“My family and I would like to express our great appreciation for the police, rescue and medical personnel who worked intensively to save and protect human lives on this dark day.”
Police earlier urged the public to stay away from the centre as they were searching and evacuating the premises.
At least five people were taken to hospital. Four underwent surgery – one is critically injured, two are stable and one is lightly injured, police said at an earlier news conference.
Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter said police officers had been shot at, but police said no officers had been shot.
The centre is for students over the age of 20, according to its website. It offers primary and upper secondary school courses, as well as Swedish classes for immigrants, vocational training and programmes for people with intellectual disabilities.
Google Maps shows a number of schools for children in the vicinity.
The shooting happened after many students had gone home following a national exam.
Students were taking shelter in nearby buildings and other parts of the campus were evacuated.
Teacher Lena Warenmark told SVT News that there were unusually few students on the campus on Tuesday afternoon after the exam. She also told the broadcaster that she heard probably 10 gunshots.
Andreas Sundling, 28, was among those forced to barricade themselves inside the school.
“We heard three bangs and loud screams,” he told the Expressen newspaper while sheltering in a classroom.
“Now we’re sitting here waiting to be evacuated from the school. The information we have received is that we should sit and wait.”
Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet reported one person trapped in the centre as saying: “We have heard several shots outside.”
The newspaper also quoted a person who had received a text from a teacher at the centre saying “there was a shooting with automatic weapons”.
It said local emergency and intensive care departments are being made ready for casualties.
Fatal attacks at educational establishments in Sweden are rare, with 10 killed in seven incidents between 2010 and 2022, according to the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention.
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0:29
Footage shows classroom on lockdown during shooting
In an update on Tuesday afternoon, police said around 10 people had been killed in the shooting.
The gunman is believed to be among the dead, officers said.
The website for the Swedish police added: “About ten people have been killed in the incident.
“We are currently working on identification. The total number of injured is currently unclear.”
Here is everything we know about the shooting so far.
What happened?
Police were alerted to shots being fired at Campus Risbergska adult education centre just after 12.30pm local time (11.30am UK time) on Tuesday.
The violence broke out after many students had gone home following a national exam. Video footage from the scene showed a large police presence and other emergency vehicles.
In a news conference after 5pm UK time, police said around 10 people had been killed.
Officers added they don’t believe there is a terror motive in the attack, but this is not conclusive.
None of those admitted to hospital are children, according to a separate update on the Orebro regional authorities’ website.
Students that were sheltering in nearby buildings, and other parts of the school, were evacuated following the shooting.
Campus Risbergska serves students who are over the age of 20, according to its website.
Primary and upper secondary school courses are offered, as well as Swedish classes for immigrants, vocational training and programmes for people with intellectual disabilities.
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The suspect remains unnamed, but police confirmed they are a male.
In their evening update, police said they believed the suspect had also died.
He was not known to officers, police said.
A spokesperson added that they cannot rule out that there are more suspected attackers involved.
‘Three bangs and loud screams’
Teacher Lena Warenmark told SVT News that there were unusually few students on the campus on Tuesday afternoon after the exam. She also told the broadcaster that she heard probably 10 gunshots.
Andreas Sundling, 28, was among those forced to barricade themselves inside the school.
“We heard three bangs and loud screams,” he told the Expressen newspaper while sheltering in a classroom.
“Now we’re sitting here waiting to be evacuated from the school. The information we have received is that we should sit and wait.”
Pavel Koubak, a photographer who was in the area at the time of the attack, said that he saw at least three police helicopters in the sky.
“I was talking to a guy riding a bicycle who passed through the area,” he told Sky News presenter Kamali Melbourne.
“He had a friend that was working inside the school that had sent him a text message that there was automatic rifle fire. He was laying down on the floor inside the school.”
Asked whether gun violence was rare in the area, Mr Koubak said it was not.
“We’ve had plenty of shootings around Sweden and also in Orebro in the last couple of years. But, this seems to be sort of a bigger magnitude,” he said.
“I think [the police] are pretty educated on these types of situations nowadays. There was a pretty quick response from the big unit of police and lots of helicopters very, very quickly after the alarm.”
What have the police said?
Police said they carried out investigations at various addresses in Orebro, with technical personnel working at the scene.
“At present, the police believe that the perpetrator acted alone, but we cannot rule out more perpetrators connected to the incident,” the update on the Swedish police’s website said.
Police added that they “had no warning sign” about the attack.
Officers are also working to identify the perpetrator and the victims.
The damage at the crime scene was so extensive that investigators were unable to be more definitive on the number killed, said Roberto Eid Forest, head of the local police.
“When it comes to saying anything more about the perpetrator, it is still very early. The operation is ongoing and that will undoubtedly become clearer. But we are working very intensively right now,” Mr Forest said.
He described the attack as a “horrible” incident, calling it “exceptional” and a “nightmare”.
What has the government said?
Sweden’s prime minister Ulf Kristersson said the tragedy is the worst mass shooting in the country’s history.
“Today, we have witnessed brutal, deadly violence against completely innocent people,” Mr Kristersson told reporters.
“This is the worst mass shooting in Swedish history. Many questions remain unanswered, and I cannot provide those answers either.
“But the time will come when we will know what happened, how it could occur, and what motives may have been behind it. Let us not speculate,” he said.
Meanwhile, the country’s king Carl XVI Gustaf said the shooting was a “terrible atrocity”.
“We send our condolences tonight to the families and friends of the deceased. Our thoughts at this time also go to the injured and their relatives, as well as to others affected.
“My family and I would like to express our great appreciation for the police, rescue and medical personnel who worked intensively to save and protect human lives on this dark day.”
The levies were expected to all take effect on Tuesday, with Mexico and Canada both announcing counter-tariffs of their own in response.
However, on Monday both Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the implementation of tariffs would be paused for a month after they had calls with Mr Trump.
But Mr Trump has also threatened to go further, saying tariffs on the European Union would be implemented “pretty soon”.
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4:36
Trump’s proposed tariffs
When questioned about the UK, the president said Britain was “out of line” when it came to trade but he thought the situation could be “worked out” without the use of tariffs.
What are tariffs, and how do they work?
Put simply, tariffs are taxes on goods brought in from other countries.
By raising the price of imports, tariffs aim to protect domestic manufacturers by making locally made goods cheaper.
Contrary to what Mr Trump has said, it is not foreign countries that pay tariffs, but the importing companies that buy the goods.
For example, American businesses like Walmart or Target pay tariffs directly to the US treasury.
In the US, these tariffs are collected by customs and border protection agents, who are stationed at 328 ports of entry across the country.
To compensate for tariffs, companies then put up their prices, so customers end up paying more for goods.
Tariffs can also damage foreign countries as it makes their products pricier and harder to sell.
This can lead to them cutting prices (and sacrificing profits) to offset levies and maintain their market share in the US.
Why is Trump doing this?
Mr Trump has argued imposing higher levies will help reduce illegal migration and the smuggling of the synthetic opioid fentanyl to the US.
On Mexico, the US leader claimed drug traffickers and the country’s government “have an intolerable alliance” that in turn impacts national security.
He further claimed Mexican drug cartels are operating in Canada.
On China, he said the country’s government provides a “safe haven” for criminal organisations.
He has also pledged to use tariffs to boost domestic manufacturing.
“We may have short term some little pain, and people understand that. But long term, the United States has been ripped off by virtually every country in the world,” he said.
His aim appears to be to force governments in those countries to work much harder to prevent what he calls illegal migration and the smuggling of the deadly drug fentanyl – as appears to have been agreed by Mexico. But, even if the countries do not do what America wants, it will still potentially benefit firms that produce goods in the US.
What could the consequences be?
Mexico and Canada are two of America’s largest trading partners, with the tariffs upending decades-old trade relationships.
Goods that could be affected most by the incoming tariffs include fruit and veg, petrol and oil, cars and vehicle parts and electronic goods.
New analysis by the Budget Lab at Yale University found the average US household would lose the equivalent of $1,170 US dollars (£944) in income from the tariffs.
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1:10
Why Trump’s tariffs could cost you
The research also found economic growth would slow and inflation would worsen, as the tariffs forced up prices.
Immediate consequences were felt on Monday morning, as shares on Asian markets took a tumble.
Japan’s Nikkei opened down 2.9% while Australia’s benchmark – often a proxy trade for Chinese markets – fell 1.8%. Stocks in Hong Kong, which include listings of Chinese companies, fell 1.1%.
UK stocks were also significantly down, with the benchmark FTSE 100 index – containing the most valuable companies on the London Stock Exchange – dropped more than 1.3% on the open.
In Europe, stock markets opened sharply lower while the euro slid 1.3%. The Europe-wide index of companies, the Stoxx 600 dropped as much as 1.5%.
While Mexico’s peso hit its lowest in nearly three years.
‘Very scary path’
Sky News’ data and economics editorEd Conway said the long-term consequences of a trade war is “everyone gets poorer”, which is what happened to the world before World War Two.
“As countries get poorer, they get frustrated and you get more nationalism,” Conway said, speaking on Friday’s Sky News Daily podcast.
“This is exactly what happened in the 1930s, and the world ended up at war with each other. It is a very, very scary path, and yes, we are basically on a potential of that path.”
However, Conway added one positive of Mr Trump’s tariffs could be highlighting “massive imbalances” within the global economy.
He said Mr Trump may be able to shift the conversation to problems “economists don’t want to talk about”.
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“At the moment, we have a dysfunctional global economy,” he explained.
“You have got massive imbalances like trade deficits [when a country’s imports exceeds the value of its exports] and trade surpluses [when a country’s exports exceeds the cost of its imports].
“There might well be a better way of everyone getting together and having a conversation and working out how to align their affairs, so we don’t have these imbalances in the future.
“And tariffs help to get you to this point.”
How has the world reacted?
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reacted strongly against Mr Trump’s tariffs, saying his country would impose 25% tariffs on $155bn Canadian dollars (£85.9bn) of US goods in response.
He added the move would split the two countries apart, and urged Canadians to choose domestic products rather than American ones.
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0:50
Tariffs against Canada ‘will put US jobs at risk’
Mexican President Ms Sheinbaum posted on X on Sunday to say she had ordered her economy minister to implement tariff and non-tariff measures to defend Mexico’s interests.
She said her government “categorically rejects” the claim it has “alliances with criminal organisations” and called on the White House to “fight the sale of drugs on the streets of their major cities”.
A day later, she posted saying she and Mr Trump had a “good conversation” and “reached a series of agreements”.
These agreements include Mexico sending 10,000 troops to the border to “prevent drug trafficking from Mexico to the United States, particularly fentanyl”.
Mr Trump responded to the agreement with Ms Sheinbaum, saying negotiations between the two will be ongoing to try and achieve a “deal”.
Meanwhile, China has retaliated by imposing 10% tariffs on American crude oil, agricultural machinery, large-displacement cars and pickup trucks.
There will also be 15% tariffs on coal and liquefied natural gas, as well as an investigation into Google.
China also said it is imposing export controls on rare earth metals such as tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, molybdenum and ruthenium-related items – the country controls much of the world’s supply of such metals, which are critical for the transition to clean energy.
They will not come into effect until Monday 10 February, however.
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0:59
Mexico responds to Trump’s tariffs
A spokesperson for theUK government reiterated that the US is an “indispensable ally” and one of the country’s “closest trading partners”.
They added that the trading relationship was “fair and balanced”, after Mr Trump criticised the UK, saying it was “out of line”.
European Union (EU) leaders have also taken a strong stance against looming US tariffs.
Kaja Kallas, the chief of foreign policy for the bloc, said there were no winners in a trade war, and if the US and Europe started one “then the one laughing on the side is China”.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz added that the EU is strong enough to “respond to tariffs with our own tariffs”, while French President Emmanuel Macron said declarations by the US were pushing Europe to be “stronger and more united”.
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0:31
EU can react with its own tariffs
What’s the history of trade wars?
Imposing tariffs is not new to Mr Trump, or the US for that matter.
During his first term in the White House, he imposed higher levies on China and Vietnam.
In 2018, he imposed 25% tariffs on imported steel and 10% on imported aluminium from most countries, a response to what he said was the unfair impact of Chinese steel driving down prices and negatively affecting the US steel industry.
China then hit back with retaliatory tariffs on US imports, including 15% on 120 American products such as fruits, nuts, wine and steel pipes and a 25% tariff on US pork and recycled aluminium.
Before that, Democrat Jimmy Carter went so far as to completely ban the sale of wheat to Russia, which remained in effect until Ronald Reagan ended it in 1981.
In 2019, Mr Trump also used the threat of tariffs as leverage to persuade Mexico to crack down on migrants crossing Mexican territory on their way to the US.
A study by economists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of Zurich, Harvard and the World Bank concluded Mr Trump’s tariffs the first time around failed to restore jobs to the American heartland.
The tariffs “neither raised nor lowered US employment” when they were supposed to protect jobs, according to Sky News’ US partner network NBC News.