Airbnb bookings dip in Austin, San Francisco prompting doom loop fears

Published

2 years ago

July 12, 2023

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Airbnb bookings have declined over the past year in cities like Austin and San Francisco that have historically been popular destinations for short-term rentals, prompting concern over the economic uncertainty wracking urban areas and the prospect of a “doom loop” developing.

Nick Gerli, the CEO of Austin-based Reventure Consulting, recently tweeted that the “Airbnb collapse is real” and that, “Revenues are down nearly 50 percent in cities like Phoenix and Austin.”

He went on to say, “Watch out for a wave of forced selling from Airbnb owners later this year in the areas hardest hit by the revenue collapse.”

Gerli cited AllTheRooms data which showed a 48.6% year-over-year decline in the average revenue per available listing in the three-month period ending in May for the Austin metropolitan area.

He attributed the decline to the end of pandemic-era migration, tweeting: “The pandemic is over. Fewer people are working from home / vacationing in states like Montana, Texas, and Tennessee. So the demand is way down. Just as the Airbnb supply went way up. So you get a crash.”

An Airbnb spokesperson told FOX Business, “The data is not consistent with our own data. As we said during our Q1 earnings, more guests are traveling on Airbnb than ever before, with Nights and Experiences Booked growing 19% in Q1 2023 compared to a year ago.”

Jamie Lane, the chief economist and SVP of analytics at AirDNA, also pushed back on the notion of a major decline in short-term rentals.

Lane tweeted an analysis using AirDNA data of the same metro areas covered in Gerlis analysis which found an average decline of 3.6% rather than 40%.

The AirDNA data showed the Austin metro area experienced a 7.2% year-over-year decline in revenue per available listing for the same three-month period ending May 2023.

The San Francisco Standard reported that data from AirDNA found that nights stayed in vacation rentals in San Francisco were down 29% in May 2023 compared to May 2019.

The outlet also spoke to several Bay Area homeowners who rent out rooms through Airbnb, including host Keith Freedman, who estimated that prices for San Francisco Airbnbs are down about 40% from last year and occupancy has declined 20% to 25%.

Separately, Gerli tweeted data showing that median rents in the Austin metro area declined 6% year-over-year while the San Francisco metro area experienced a 4% decline, which he said could also contribute to owners being forced to sell in the second half of this year.

Some of the decline in rents could be attributed to slowing population growth in those metro areas.

While the Austin area has seen rapid growth over the past decade, particularly in the suburbs outside the city limits, the Census Bureau estimates that Austins population grew 1.3% from April 2020 to July 2022.

Unlike Austin, San Francisco’s population growth has been on a downward trend in recent years.

The Census Bureau estimates that San Francisco Countys population declined by 7.5% from April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2022.

Slowing population growth or overall declines in a citys population raises the prospect of an “urban doom loop” developing.

An urban doom loop involves a decline in workers in offices in city centers, which results in businesses shrinking their office footprint and their rental overhead.

The decline in demand causes real estate prices to fall, which in turn reduces property tax revenue while other sources of tax revenue, like sales tax, also take a hit due to the reduced traffic in downtown areas.

As the overall tax base declines, it becomes harder for city governments to fund services like law enforcement, which can lead to a rise in crime that makes downtown areas less desirable, worsening the “doom loop.”

Sports

Oilers keep pace for home ice, but lose Draisaitl

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2 hours ago

April 4, 2025

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Oilers keep pace for home ice, but lose Draisaitl

Associated Press

Apr 4, 2025, 12:41 AM ET

SAN JOSE, Calif. — NHL leading goal scorer Leon Draisaitl left the Edmonton Oilers‘ game against the San Jose Sharks on Thursday night in the second period because of an undisclosed injury and didn’t return.

Draisaitl appeared to be injured midway through the second period and skated gingerly to the bench before leaving for the dressing room. Coach Kris Knoblauch said after the game that he had no update on the severity of the injury.

Jeff Skinner scored the tiebreaking goal shortly after Draisaitl left the game, giving the Oilers a 3-2 victory that kept them within two points of the Los Angeles Kings in the race for second place in the Pacific Division and home-ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

“Obviously we’ve had some injuries to key guys,” Skinner said. “It’s a lot of opportunity for other guys to step up and I think guys have done a good job so far. We’re going to have to continue that and keep working together to get the results we want.”

Draisaitl had an assist earlier in the second period. He leads the NHL with 52 goals and is third in the league with 106 points.

Draisaitl sat out four games last month because of an undisclosed injury.

The Oilers are already without star center Connor McDavid, who has been sidelined since colliding with Winnipeg’s Josh Morrissey on March 20. McDavid has resumed skating with the team in a noncontact jersey but there is no timetable for his return.

The playoffs begin in just over two weeks.

“You never want to miss those guys,” Knoblauch said. “You never want your top players not to play because every time they’re not in, it decreases your chances of winning because they are good players, obviously. But what happens is other guys have some opportunities to play, get some confidence, hopefully score some goals, because we’re going to need them.”

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Makar 9th NHL blueliner with 30 goals in season

Published

2 hours ago

April 4, 2025

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Makar 9th NHL blueliner with 30 goals in season

ESPN News Services

Apr 3, 2025, 10:14 PM ET

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Avalanche star Cale Makar scored against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday night to become the ninth defenseman in the NHL, and the first with Colorado, to score 30 goals in a season.

The sixth-year player is the NHL’s first defenseman to reach the 30-goal mark since Mike Green of the Washington Capitals had 31 in 2008-09.

Makar put the Avalanche up 5-2 by scoring a power-play goal with 38 seconds left in the second period. He was set up in the left circle for a one-timer by a pass from Nathan MacKinnon. He also had two assists as the Avalanche won, 7-3, to clinch their eighth consecutive playoff appearance.

Overall, NHL blue liners have now combined to reach 30 goals 18 times, led by Bobby Orr, who had five 30-goal seasons. Paul Coffey (four) and Denis Potvin (three) are the only others to have had multiple 30-goal seasons. The list is rounded out by Ray Bourque, Kevin Hatcher, Phil Housley and Doug Wilson.

With the goal and two assists, the 26-year-old Makar also increased his point total to 90, matching the franchise record for defenseman he set last season. In doing so, he became the NHL’s fifth defenseman to produce consecutive 90-point seasons, and first since Coffey (1988-89 to 1990-91) and Al MacInnis (1989-90 to 1990-91).

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

Sports

Blues’ Holloway exits with lower-body injury

Published

2 hours ago

April 4, 2025

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Blues' Holloway exits with lower-body injury

Associated Press

Apr 3, 2025, 09:28 PM ET

ST. LOUIS — St. Louis forward Dylan Holloway left the Blues’ 5-4 overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first period Thursday night because of a lower-body injury.

Blues coach Jim Montgomery had no additional information on the injury after the game.

“We’ll have more, I’m sure, tomorrow,” Montgomery said.

The team announced the injury during the first intermission and said he would not return to the game. It was not clear when Holloway was injured.

Holloway had eight shifts in the first period.

Holloway has been a driving force in the Blues’ 11-game winning streak, which ties a franchise record. He has 26 goals and 37 assists in 77 games this season.

“Obviously, that’s an elite player for us, someone who plays in all situations, and, you know, a really important piece to our team,” forward Jake Neighbours said. “We had to focus on the task at hand. … it sucked losing Dylan, and just hope he’s OK.”