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On 20 July, Rishi Sunak could become the first prime minister since Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three seats at by-elections on the same day.

The Conservative Party’s implosion over MP misconduct and whether Boris Johnson lied to parliament has presented election watchers with an intriguing set of contests.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London, vacated by Mr Johnson himself, gives Labour a shot at a seat well within the swings (around eight points) they have already achieved in this parliament.

Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, where Johnson ally Nigel Adams has stepped aside, requires an 18-point swing for a Labour win. This is beyond both the national 12-point swing the party needs for an overall majority at the next general election and the 16-point swing suggested by recent polls. Gaining Selby would also set a record for the size of majority overturned by Labour at a by-election.

Given stellar Liberal Democrat performances since 2021, Somerton and Frome should be easy pickings for the party David Cameron once obliterated from the South West. A swing of 15 points would topple yet another Tory seat in the south of England.

The results will give an insight into how voters view the government’s effort to tackle inflation, rising interest rates and NHS waiting lists and whether they think it’s time to give Sir Keir Starmer a go at solving them. But, as ever, by-elections develop their own character and local priorities can intervene.

So, what’s at play in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton?

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Uxbridge and South Ruislip

Established in 2010, the seat of Uxbridge has elected Conservatives since then. Boris Johnson won more than half the vote at each of the last three contests. It even bucked the London trend to back Brexit.

A suburban commuter town on the western edge of metropolitan London, it includes both a university and RAF Northolt. The area hasn’t experienced the same urban development as much of the capital, but the demographics have been moving in Labour’s favour.

The latest census suggests the population has become younger, more educated, and more diverse than a decade ago, all likely indicators of Labour support. That said, look a little closer and it’s an inconsistent picture.

Students dominate in the university areas around Uxbridge and Colham where more people live in rented homes. The working-class area of Yiewsley is the most Labour friendly. While South Ruislip is the main Tory territory. Here, you find older owner-occupiers and commuters. The rising Asian community also seems to have given the Tories a hearing.

These differences may be one reason why Uxbridge has been ‘sticky’ at election time. In 2019 Boris Johnson was defending the smallest majority of any prime minister since 1924, just over 5,000 votes. Despite Labour’s best efforts he increased that to over 7,000. It means Labour need an eight-point swing, just half that suggested by the national polls, to win the seat for the first time.

But, as ever at by-elections, it might not be that simple.

The most recent elections in the constituency were for Hillingdon Council in 2022 and the results showed little enthusiasm for Labour, despite a record Conservative defeat across the capital on the same day.

Labour won just one of the seven wards that sit entirely within the constituency – Yiewsley. To succeed on 20 July, they need to maximise their vote there and persuade the students of the Colham and Cowley ward to turn out.

But there’s a local factor dominating the contest that could render the national politics largely irrelevant.

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The Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ), a tax on cars which don’t meet certain emissions standards, is being extended by London’s Labour mayor to cover the area in August. Unlike inner London, this is a constituency where around four in five households have a car and one in three have two or more. The issue has prompted two of the extensive list of 17 candidates to change their names to include the phrases “Anti-ULEZ” and “No-ULEZ”.

The length of the ballot paper could also be a problem for the main parties. It gives voters plenty of options other than Labour, ranging from UKIP, which has done well here in the past, to Piers Corbyn (brother of Jeremy), and Laurence Fox. The Conservatives will hope voters read to the end as their candidate is listed last thanks to his place in the alphabet.

With a declaration not expected until after 3am, those watching Sky News will have plenty of time to consider the turnout. Invariably lower at by-elections than general elections, there’s no way of knowing why people do and don’t vote or who did and didn’t. However, we can estimate a reasonable figure.

Based on contests so far this parliament, we expect turnout to be around 27 points lower than in 2019 in all three constituencies. For Uxbridge that means something in the region of 40%.

Selby and Ainsty

A record-breaking result could come at the other end of England, in Selby and Ainsty. Nestled in the North Yorkshire countryside, this seat is a mix of rural villages and towns surrounded by churches and historical battle sites.

Almost everything about it says Tory heartland and since its creation in 2010 that’s how people here have voted. Nigel Adams’s decision to resign, because he was denied a peerage, means Selby will have a change of MP for the first time.

If Labour were to win, it would set a record. The highest majority the party has overturned at a by-election is 14,654 votes in Mid-Staffordshire more than 30 years ago.

But while the demographics here might not be trending in Labour’s favour, as more than a fifth of people are aged over 60, the issues are. Selby and Ainsty is in the top 40 seats in England and Wales for mortgage holders. 37% of households have a mortgage and rising interest rates might impact the vote.

The latest council elections in 2022 also provide Labour with hope. They finished just six points behind the Conservatives despite managing to win only four of the 15 wards within the constituency. Labour needs to persuade voters in Selby, Sherburn and Appleton who did not support them then to do so now.

Turnout could be key too. In Selby, we suggest one of around 45% would be in line with recent by-elections.

With the general election creeping closer, Sir Keir Starmer needs to show he can win votes directly from the Conservatives in places throughout England, not just those with Labour history. Selby provides the perfect opportunity.

The 18-point swing required for victory would be the best Labour has achieved this parliament. By-elections aren’t ideal predictors of general election performance but, if they do win Selby, no doubt Labour will remind us they need a 12-point national swing for a parliamentary majority.

That is more than the record swing achieved by Tony Blair in 1997. Intriguingly, the estimates drawn up for Selby’s boundaries for 2005, Blair’s last election, put Labour just four points shy of the Conservatives. So perhaps winning Selby should be within Labour’s reach if it is to win a majority at the next general election.

The pressure to pull off the big win is on Labour candidate Keir Mather. At just 25, if elected, he would be the youngest MP in the Commons – the so-called Baby of the House.

Somerton and Frome

In the West Country the Conservatives face a different challenger and a feeling of deja vu. Just a year ago the Liberal Democrats made by-election history overturning a record 24,239 Conservative majority in Tiverton and Honiton and now they’re back in Somerton and Frome.

Unlike Tiverton in Devon, this Somerset market town has substantial Lib Dem pedigree. For 18 years it was represented by the former Lib Dem minister David Heath until the Tories gained it in the 2015 post-coalition sweep of the South West.

David Warburton was the winner then and it is his departure after allegations of cocaine use, which he admits, and sexual misconduct, which he denies, that has triggered this contest. He had built a substantial majority of more than 19,000 votes but this seat has often been competitive.

The population is largely older than average and less exposed to interest rates, with more than 43% of households owning their home without a mortgage. But they have been trending away from the Tories.

The 2022 Somerset Council results were terrible for the Conservatives and the biggest falls were in the wards that make up Somerton and Frome. The Liberal Democrats were first in 10 of those 13 wards, taking 40% of the vote, while the Conservatives managed to win just one. Even the Greens managed two.

And you can’t say Sarah Dyke, the Liberal Democrat candidate, doesn’t know how to defeat a Conservative. At those 2022 council elections, she beat Hayward Burt, CCHQ’s resident expert on conquering Liberal Democrats, to take her seat in Blackmoor Vale.

Now, she requires a swing of 15 points to become the MP for Somerton, which looks pretty modest compared to other Lib Dem wins this parliament.

We expect a reasonable turnout to be in the region of 48%.

How to judge the result?

Rishi Sunak is unlikely to emerge from these by-elections unscathed.

On recent form, a loss in Somerton is expected and it will be further evidence the Conservatives could be fighting the next general election on two fronts.

Losing Uxbridge would be a blow to the Tories but no worse than other defeats in this parliament. Should Labour miss out, Sir Keir Starmer will have questions of his own to answer.

But attention will be elsewhere if Conservative rural Selby turns a record-breaking red. Labour could claim to be winning votes directly from the Tories even in their established heartlands.

Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat. If Labour wins that, who’s to say they can’t gain the 124 seats they need for a Westminster majority?

Watch live coverage of the by-election results on Sky News through the night from 11pm on Thursday 20 July.

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25% of young children and pregnant women malnourished in Gaza, charity says, as PM vows to fly critical medical cases to UK

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25% of young children and pregnant women malnourished in Gaza, charity says, as PM vows to fly critical medical cases to UK

A charity has warned 25% of young children and pregnant women in Gaza are now malnourished, with Sir Keir Starmer vowing to evacuate children who need “critical medical assistance” to the UK.

MSF, also known as Doctors Without Borders, said Israel’s “deliberate use of starvation as a weapon” has reached unprecedented levels – with patients and healthcare workers both fighting to survive.

It claimed that, at one of its clinics in Gaza City, rates of severe malnutrition in children under five have trebled over the past two weeks – and described the lack of food and water on the ground as “unconscionable”.

Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

The charity also criticised the high number of fatalities seen at aid distribution sites, with one British surgeon accusing IDF soldiers of shooting civilians “almost like a game of target practice”.

MSF’s deputy medical coordinator in Gaza, Dr Mohammed Abu Mughaisib, said: “Those who go to the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s food distributions know that they have the same chance of receiving a sack of flour as they do of leaving with a bullet in their head.”

The UN also estimates that Israeli forces have killed more than 1,000 people seeking food – the majority near the militarised distribution sites of the US-backed aid distribution scheme run by the GHF.

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‘Many more deaths unless Israelis allow food in’

In a statement on Friday, the IDF had said it “categorically rejects the claims of intentional harm to civilians”, and reports of incidents at aid distribution sites were “under examination”.

The GHF has also previously disputed that these deaths were connected with its organisation’s operations, with director Johnnie Moore telling Sky News: “We just want to feed Gazans. That’s the only thing that we want to do.”

Israel says it has let enough food into Gaza and has accused the UN of failing to distribute it, in what the foreign ministry has labelled as “a deliberate ploy” to defame the country.

‘Humanitarian catastrophe must end’

In a video message posted on X late last night, Sir Keir Starmer condemned the scenes in Gaza as “appalling” and “unrelenting” – and said “the images of starvation and desperation are utterly horrifying”.

The prime minister added: “The denial of aid to children and babies is completely unjustifiable, just as the continued captivity of hostages is completely unjustifiable.

“Hundreds of civilians have been killed while seeking aid – children, killed, whilst collecting water. It is a humanitarian catastrophe, and it must end.”

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Israeli military show aid waiting inside Gaza

Sir Keir confirmed that the British government is now “accelerating efforts” to evacuate children from Gaza who need critical medical assistance, so they can be brought to the UK for specialist treatment.

Israel has now said that foreign countries will be able to airdrop aid into Gaza. While the PM says the UK will now “do everything we can” to get supplies in via this route, he said this decision has come “far too late”.

Read more:
WHO: Gaza faces ‘manmade’ starvation
UN: People in Gaza ‘walking corpses’

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Last year, the RAF dropped aid into Gaza, but humanitarian organisations warned it wasn’t enough and was potentially dangerous. In March 2024, five people were killed when an aid parachute failed and supplies fell on them.

For now, Sir Keir has rejected calls to follow French President Emmanuel Macron and recognise a Palestinian state despite more than 220 MPs signing a cross-party letter to demand he takes this step.

The prime minister is instead demanding a ceasefire and “lasting peace” – and says he will only consider an independent state as part of a negotiated peace deal.

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Israel allows foreign countries to parachute aid into Gaza

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Israel allows foreign countries to parachute aid into Gaza

Israel has said foreign countries can drop aid into Gaza from today.

A senior IDF official told Sky News on Friday: “Starting today, Israel will allow foreign countries to parachute aid into Gaza.

“Starting this afternoon, the WCK organisation began reactivating its kitchens.”

Humanitarian aid organisation World Central Kitchen paused its operation in Gaza in November after a number of its workers were killed in an Israeli airstrike last year.

Aid workers in Gaza – who help provide food, medicine and shelter for the millions displaced there – have been affected by the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas.

In recent weeks hundreds of Palestinians have been killed while waiting for food and aid.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

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‘Almost like a game of target practice’: British surgeon says IDF shooting Gazans at aid points

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'Almost like a game of target practice': British surgeon says IDF shooting Gazans at aid points

A British surgeon who recently returned from Gaza has told Sky News that there is “profound malnutrition” among the population – and claims IDF soldiers are shooting civilians at aid points “like a game of target practice”.

Dr Nick Maynard spent four weeks working inside Nasser Hospital, where a lack of food has left medics struggling to treat children and toddlers.

The conditions inside the hospital, in the south of the Strip, have been documented in a Sky News report.

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Malnourished girl: ‘The war changed me’

Dr Maynard told The World with Yalda Hakim: “I met several doctors who had cartons of formula feed in their luggage – and they were all confiscated by the Israeli border guards. Nothing else got confiscated, just the formula feed.

“There were four premature babies who died during the first two weeks when I was in Nasser Hospital – and there will be many, many more deaths until the Israelis allow proper food to get in there.”

Palestinians wait to receive food from a charity kitchen, amid a hunger crisis, in Gaza City, July 24, 2025. REUTERS/Khamis Al-Rifi
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Palestinians wait to receive food from a charity kitchen in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters

In other developments:

• Israel and the US have recalled their teams from Gaza ceasefire talks

• US envoy Steve Witkoff has accused Hamas “of failing to act in good faith”

• France has announced that it will recognise the state of Palestine

• An influential group of MPs is calling on the UK to “immediately” do the same

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‘Starvation used as a weapon’

‘They were shells’

Dr Nick Maynard has been going to Gaza for the past 15 years – and this is his third visit to the territory since the war began.

The British surgeon added that virtually all of the kids in the paediatric unit of Nasser Hospital are being fed with sugar water.

“They’ve got a small amount of formula feed for very small babies, but not enough,” he warned.

Dr Maynard said the lack of aid has also had a huge impact on his colleagues.

“I saw people I’d known for years and I didn’t recognise some of them,” he added. “Two colleagues had lost 20kg and 30kg respectively. They were shells, they’re all hungry.

“They’re going to work every day, then going home to their tents where they have no food.”

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Ex-Gaza aid worker claims personnel shot at Palestinians

IDF ‘shooting Gazans at aid points’

Elsewhere in the interview, Dr Maynard claimed Israeli soldiers are shooting civilians at aid points “almost like a game of target practice”.

He has operated on boys as young as 11 who had been “shot at food distribution points” run by the US and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.

“They had gone to get food for their starving families and they were shot,” he said.

“I operated on one 12-year-old boy who died on the operating table because his injuries were so severe.”

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Gaza deaths increase when aid sites open

Dr Maynard continued: “What was even more distressing was the pattern of injuries that we saw, the clustering of injuries to particular body parts on certain days.

“One day they’d be coming in predominately with gunshot wounds to the head or the neck, another day to the abdomen.

“Twelve days ago, four young teenage boys came in, all of whom had been shot in the testicles and deliberately so.

“The clustering was far too obvious to be accidental, and it seemed to us like this was almost like a game of target practice.

“I would never have believed this possible unless I’d witnessed this with my own eyes.”

Palestinians are brought to Nasser Hospital after being shot by Israeli forces while gathering to receive bags of flour from aid trucks, according to hospital officials and eyewitnesses, in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip, on Thursday, July 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Mariam Dagga)
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Palestinians brought to Nasser Hospital after being shot by Israeli forces, according to hospital officials and eyewitnesses. Pic: AP

Sky News has contacted the Israeli Defence Forces for comment.

An IDF spokesperson previously told Sky News it “strongly rejected” the accusations that its forces were instructed to deliberately shoot at civilians.

“To be clear, IDF directives prohibit deliberate attacks on civilians,” the spokesperson said, adding that the incidents are “being examined by the relevant IDF authorities”.

Read more:
Medics at Nasser hospital struggle to feed children
Gaza food situation ‘worst its ever been’

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Israeli military show aid waiting inside Gaza

The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation has been managing the supply of aid to Gaza since Israel lifted an 11-week blockade in May.

It has four aid distribution sites, all of which are located in Israeli military zones, with journalists prohibited from entering.

More than 1,000 people have been reported killed while trying to receive food aid since the GHF took over, according to the UN.

UNRWA, its relief agency for Gaza, has heavily criticised the scheme.

Commissioner general Philippe Lazzarini said: “The so-called ‘GHF’ distribution scheme is a sadistic death trap. Snipers open fire randomly on crowds as if they are given a licence to kill.”

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Just a fraction of the aid trucks needed are making it into the enclave, the UN has said, while multiple aid groups and the World Health Organisation have warned Gazans are facing “mass starvation”.

Mr Lazzarini quoted a colleague on Thursday and said malnourished Palestinians in the Gaza “are neither dead nor alive, they are walking corpses”.

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