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On 20 July, Rishi Sunak could become the first prime minister since Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three seats at by-elections on the same day.

The Conservative Party’s implosion over MP misconduct and whether Boris Johnson lied to parliament has presented election watchers with an intriguing set of contests.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London, vacated by Mr Johnson himself, gives Labour a shot at a seat well within the swings (around eight points) they have already achieved in this parliament.

Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, where Johnson ally Nigel Adams has stepped aside, requires an 18-point swing for a Labour win. This is beyond both the national 12-point swing the party needs for an overall majority at the next general election and the 16-point swing suggested by recent polls. Gaining Selby would also set a record for the size of majority overturned by Labour at a by-election.

Given stellar Liberal Democrat performances since 2021, Somerton and Frome should be easy pickings for the party David Cameron once obliterated from the South West. A swing of 15 points would topple yet another Tory seat in the south of England.

The results will give an insight into how voters view the government’s effort to tackle inflation, rising interest rates and NHS waiting lists and whether they think it’s time to give Sir Keir Starmer a go at solving them. But, as ever, by-elections develop their own character and local priorities can intervene.

So, what’s at play in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton?

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Uxbridge and South Ruislip

Established in 2010, the seat of Uxbridge has elected Conservatives since then. Boris Johnson won more than half the vote at each of the last three contests. It even bucked the London trend to back Brexit.

A suburban commuter town on the western edge of metropolitan London, it includes both a university and RAF Northolt. The area hasn’t experienced the same urban development as much of the capital, but the demographics have been moving in Labour’s favour.

The latest census suggests the population has become younger, more educated, and more diverse than a decade ago, all likely indicators of Labour support. That said, look a little closer and it’s an inconsistent picture.

Students dominate in the university areas around Uxbridge and Colham where more people live in rented homes. The working-class area of Yiewsley is the most Labour friendly. While South Ruislip is the main Tory territory. Here, you find older owner-occupiers and commuters. The rising Asian community also seems to have given the Tories a hearing.

These differences may be one reason why Uxbridge has been ‘sticky’ at election time. In 2019 Boris Johnson was defending the smallest majority of any prime minister since 1924, just over 5,000 votes. Despite Labour’s best efforts he increased that to over 7,000. It means Labour need an eight-point swing, just half that suggested by the national polls, to win the seat for the first time.

But, as ever at by-elections, it might not be that simple.

The most recent elections in the constituency were for Hillingdon Council in 2022 and the results showed little enthusiasm for Labour, despite a record Conservative defeat across the capital on the same day.

Labour won just one of the seven wards that sit entirely within the constituency – Yiewsley. To succeed on 20 July, they need to maximise their vote there and persuade the students of the Colham and Cowley ward to turn out.

But there’s a local factor dominating the contest that could render the national politics largely irrelevant.

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The Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ), a tax on cars which don’t meet certain emissions standards, is being extended by London’s Labour mayor to cover the area in August. Unlike inner London, this is a constituency where around four in five households have a car and one in three have two or more. The issue has prompted two of the extensive list of 17 candidates to change their names to include the phrases “Anti-ULEZ” and “No-ULEZ”.

The length of the ballot paper could also be a problem for the main parties. It gives voters plenty of options other than Labour, ranging from UKIP, which has done well here in the past, to Piers Corbyn (brother of Jeremy), and Laurence Fox. The Conservatives will hope voters read to the end as their candidate is listed last thanks to his place in the alphabet.

With a declaration not expected until after 3am, those watching Sky News will have plenty of time to consider the turnout. Invariably lower at by-elections than general elections, there’s no way of knowing why people do and don’t vote or who did and didn’t. However, we can estimate a reasonable figure.

Based on contests so far this parliament, we expect turnout to be around 27 points lower than in 2019 in all three constituencies. For Uxbridge that means something in the region of 40%.

Selby and Ainsty

A record-breaking result could come at the other end of England, in Selby and Ainsty. Nestled in the North Yorkshire countryside, this seat is a mix of rural villages and towns surrounded by churches and historical battle sites.

Almost everything about it says Tory heartland and since its creation in 2010 that’s how people here have voted. Nigel Adams’s decision to resign, because he was denied a peerage, means Selby will have a change of MP for the first time.

If Labour were to win, it would set a record. The highest majority the party has overturned at a by-election is 14,654 votes in Mid-Staffordshire more than 30 years ago.

But while the demographics here might not be trending in Labour’s favour, as more than a fifth of people are aged over 60, the issues are. Selby and Ainsty is in the top 40 seats in England and Wales for mortgage holders. 37% of households have a mortgage and rising interest rates might impact the vote.

The latest council elections in 2022 also provide Labour with hope. They finished just six points behind the Conservatives despite managing to win only four of the 15 wards within the constituency. Labour needs to persuade voters in Selby, Sherburn and Appleton who did not support them then to do so now.

Turnout could be key too. In Selby, we suggest one of around 45% would be in line with recent by-elections.

With the general election creeping closer, Sir Keir Starmer needs to show he can win votes directly from the Conservatives in places throughout England, not just those with Labour history. Selby provides the perfect opportunity.

The 18-point swing required for victory would be the best Labour has achieved this parliament. By-elections aren’t ideal predictors of general election performance but, if they do win Selby, no doubt Labour will remind us they need a 12-point national swing for a parliamentary majority.

That is more than the record swing achieved by Tony Blair in 1997. Intriguingly, the estimates drawn up for Selby’s boundaries for 2005, Blair’s last election, put Labour just four points shy of the Conservatives. So perhaps winning Selby should be within Labour’s reach if it is to win a majority at the next general election.

The pressure to pull off the big win is on Labour candidate Keir Mather. At just 25, if elected, he would be the youngest MP in the Commons – the so-called Baby of the House.

Somerton and Frome

In the West Country the Conservatives face a different challenger and a feeling of deja vu. Just a year ago the Liberal Democrats made by-election history overturning a record 24,239 Conservative majority in Tiverton and Honiton and now they’re back in Somerton and Frome.

Unlike Tiverton in Devon, this Somerset market town has substantial Lib Dem pedigree. For 18 years it was represented by the former Lib Dem minister David Heath until the Tories gained it in the 2015 post-coalition sweep of the South West.

David Warburton was the winner then and it is his departure after allegations of cocaine use, which he admits, and sexual misconduct, which he denies, that has triggered this contest. He had built a substantial majority of more than 19,000 votes but this seat has often been competitive.

The population is largely older than average and less exposed to interest rates, with more than 43% of households owning their home without a mortgage. But they have been trending away from the Tories.

The 2022 Somerset Council results were terrible for the Conservatives and the biggest falls were in the wards that make up Somerton and Frome. The Liberal Democrats were first in 10 of those 13 wards, taking 40% of the vote, while the Conservatives managed to win just one. Even the Greens managed two.

And you can’t say Sarah Dyke, the Liberal Democrat candidate, doesn’t know how to defeat a Conservative. At those 2022 council elections, she beat Hayward Burt, CCHQ’s resident expert on conquering Liberal Democrats, to take her seat in Blackmoor Vale.

Now, she requires a swing of 15 points to become the MP for Somerton, which looks pretty modest compared to other Lib Dem wins this parliament.

We expect a reasonable turnout to be in the region of 48%.

How to judge the result?

Rishi Sunak is unlikely to emerge from these by-elections unscathed.

On recent form, a loss in Somerton is expected and it will be further evidence the Conservatives could be fighting the next general election on two fronts.

Losing Uxbridge would be a blow to the Tories but no worse than other defeats in this parliament. Should Labour miss out, Sir Keir Starmer will have questions of his own to answer.

But attention will be elsewhere if Conservative rural Selby turns a record-breaking red. Labour could claim to be winning votes directly from the Tories even in their established heartlands.

Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat. If Labour wins that, who’s to say they can’t gain the 124 seats they need for a Westminster majority?

Watch live coverage of the by-election results on Sky News through the night from 11pm on Thursday 20 July.

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More than 1,100 confirmed dead and 800 missing in catastrophic Asia floods

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More than 1,100 confirmed dead and 800 missing in catastrophic Asia floods

Rescue and recovery and efforts are under way in parts of South and Southeast Asia where the number of those killed in devastating floods continues to rise.

The extreme weather last week has killed at least 366 people in Sri Lanka, 604 in Indonesia, and 176 in Thailand, according to authorities.

Rescuers are searching for 464 missing people in Indonesia, and a further 367 in Sri Lanka, after a cyclone and other storms triggered flooding and landslides in the region.

In a post on X, the King and Queen Camilla said they were “deeply saddened” to hear about devastating storms and added their “heartfelt condolences” to the families of those who have died.

Landslides in Sarasavigama village near Kandy, Sri Lanka. Pic: AP
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Landslides in Sarasavigama village near Kandy, Sri Lanka. Pic: AP

A man wades through the flooded street, following heavy rainfall in Wellampitiya, Sri Lanka. Pic: Reuters
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A man wades through the flooded street, following heavy rainfall in Wellampitiya, Sri Lanka. Pic: Reuters

A man uses a makeshift raft at a flooded area, following Cyclone Ditwah in Kelaniya, Sri Lanka. Pic: Reuters
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A man uses a makeshift raft at a flooded area, following Cyclone Ditwah in Kelaniya, Sri Lanka. Pic: Reuters

Hundreds of thousands in shelters in Sri Lanka

Sri Lankan authorities said about 218,000 people were in temporary shelters after downpours that triggered landslides, primarily in the tea-growing central hill country.

People were seen salvaging belongings from flooded homes along the banks of the Kelani River, near the capital Colombo on Monday.

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Meanwhile, train and flight services have resumed after being disrupted last week, but schools stayed closed, officials said.

Cyclone Ditwah was the “largest and most challenging” natural disaster in Sri Lanka’s history, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said.

A landslide survivor crosses a section of a damaged road in Sarasavigama village near Kandy, Sri Lanka. Pic: AP
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A landslide survivor crosses a section of a damaged road in Sarasavigama village near Kandy, Sri Lanka. Pic: AP

Landslide survivors salvage belongings at the site of a landslide in Sarasavigama village near Kandy, Sri Lanka. Pic: AP
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Landslide survivors salvage belongings at the site of a landslide in Sarasavigama village near Kandy, Sri Lanka. Pic: AP

A man uses his scarf to protect himself from the rain in the aftermath of Cyclone Ditwah, in Chennai, India. Pic: Reuters
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A man uses his scarf to protect himself from the rain in the aftermath of Cyclone Ditwah, in Chennai, India. Pic: Reuters

The cyclone also brought heavy rain to India’s southern state of Tamil Nadu over the weekend, with authorities saying three people were killed in rain-related incidents.

The storm, which as of 5pm UK time on Monday was about 50km (30 miles) off the coast of the state capital Chennai, has weakened into a “deep depression” and is expected to weaken further in the next few hours, weather officials said.

Amount of rainfall expected in South and Southeast Asia in the next 48 hours
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Amount of rainfall expected in South and Southeast Asia in the next 48 hours

Over a million affected in Indonesia

More than 28,000 homes have been damaged in Indonesia, with 1.4 million people affected according to the country’s disaster management centre.

The country’s president, Prabowo Subianto, called it a catastrophe and pledged to rebuild infrastructure as he visited the three affected provinces on Monday, where nearly 300,000 people have been displaced by the flooding.

Rescuers search for flood victims in Tanah Datar, West Sumatra, Indonesia. Pic: AP
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Rescuers search for flood victims in Tanah Datar, West Sumatra, Indonesia. Pic: AP

A flooded field in Indonesia's West Sumatra province. Pic: Reuters
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A flooded field in Indonesia’s West Sumatra province. Pic: Reuters

Rescuers search for victims at a village affected by flash flooding, in Agam, West Sumatra, Indonesia. Pic: AP
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Rescuers search for victims at a village affected by flash flooding, in Agam, West Sumatra, Indonesia. Pic: AP

‘Nothing remains’

“The water just rose up into the house and we were afraid, so we fled. Then we came back on Friday, and the house was gone, destroyed,” said Afrianti, 41, who only goes by one name and lives in West Sumatra’s Padang city.

She and her family of nine have made their own tent shelter beside the single wall that remains of their home.

“My home and business are gone, the shop is gone. Nothing remains. I can only live near this one remaining wall,” she said.

Highest one-day rainfall in Thai city for 300 years

In Thailand, flooding in eight southern provinces affected about three million people and led to a major mobilisation of its military to evacuate critical patients from hospitals and reach people stuck in floodwaters for days.

In the worst-affected city of Hat Yai, a southern trading hub, 335mm (13 inches) of rain fell on 21 November, its highest single-day tally in 300 years, followed by days of unrelenting downpours.

At least 82 people have died and more than three million people have been impacted by floods in 12 southern Thai provinces.
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At least 82 people have died and more than three million people have been impacted by floods in 12 southern Thai provinces.

People move a car damaged by floods in Songkhla province, southern Thailand. Pic: AP
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People move a car damaged by floods in Songkhla province, southern Thailand. Pic: AP

King offers ‘heartfelt condolences’

King Charles and Queen Camilla responded to the crisis in a statement posted on X and praised the work of emergency responders: “We wish to express our heartfelt condolences to the families of those who have so tragically lost their lives.

“Our thoughts and prayers are with the many whose homes have been destroyed and to all who are awaiting news of loved ones missing.

“These disasters remind us of the increasingly urgent need to restore the balance and harmony of Nature.”

Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnivirakul expects residents to be able to return home within seven days, a government spokesperson said on Monday.

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The first batch of compensation payments is set to be distributed on Monday, starting with 239m baht (£5.6m) for 26,000 people, the spokesperson added.

In Malaysia there have been at least three deaths and authorities are still on alert for a second and third wave of flooding as 11,600 remain in evacuation centres.

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Dignitas founder dies by assisted suicide aged 92

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Dignitas founder dies by assisted suicide aged 92

The founder of Dignitas, the Switzerland-based assisted suicide clinic, has died aged 92, according to the organisation.

Ludwig Minelli, lawyer and former journalist, died on 29 November shortly before his 93rd birthday.

Mr Minelli lived a life “for freedom of choice, self-determination, and human rights”, said Dignitas in a tribute.

He founded the organisation in 1998 with “a group of like-minded people”.

“At that time, he and his fellow compatriots would never have thought that this association was about to become an internationally active organisation,” said the tribute.

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‘He died like he lived, with dignity’

It described Mr Minelli’s belief that trying to “talk someone out of suicide is not a suitable prevention method”.

“Rather, the approach should be taking a person in a seemingly hopeless situation seriously, meeting them at eye level, and showing them all possible options to alleviate their suffering.”

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Those options should include “the possibility of ending their own life with professional support, safely and in a self-determined way in a setting that he or she personally deems dignified”, it said, adding that a very small number of people who approach Dignitas end up choosing assisted suicide.

“It is up to the individual to decide which option to choose,” said the tribute.

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For and against assisted dying

The Dignitas team said Mr Minelli had “planned succession for a seamless transition” and the organisation would continue its “professional and combative” work.

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Although Switzerland has allowed assisted dying since 1942 – provided the motive is not “selfish” – Dignitas became well-known as it allows non-Swiss people to use its clinics.

Despite assisted suicide still being illegal in the UK, people from Great Britain make up the second largest group of Dignitas members, according to the group’s statistics.

Last year, 37 people travelled from Great Britain to die at a Swiss Dignitas clinic.

Those who accompany their loved ones to the clinics can be charged with assisted suicide, although earlier this year, police said a widow who accompanied her husband wouldn’t face charges.

“Whilst [the CPS] concluded the evidential test had been met regarding assisted suicide, it was decided not to be in the public interest to prosecute,” said North Yorkshire Police in a statement at the time.

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.

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Hong Kong high rise fire: 13 arrested for suspected manslaughter as death toll hits 151

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Hong Kong high rise fire: 13 arrested for suspected manslaughter as death toll hits 151

Thirteen people have been arrested for suspected manslaughter after Hong Kong’s deadliest fire in decades, officials have said.

At a press conference about the tragedy at Wang Fuk Court, police said 151 people had now died as a result of the blaze – Hong Kong’s worst since 1948 – and that more than 40 are still missing.

An emotional Tsung Shuk Yin, a police official, told reporters on Monday: “Some of the bodies have turned into ash, therefore, we might not be able to locate all missing individuals.”

The fire last week engulfed multiple high rise blocks of flats. Officials overseeing investigations said that tests on several samples of a green mesh that was wrapped around bamboo scaffolding on the buildings at the time of the blaze did not match fire-retardant standards.

Officers have said mesh around Wang Fuk Court did not meet safety standards. Pic: AP
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Officers have said mesh around Wang Fuk Court did not meet safety standards. Pic: AP

Pic: Kyodo/AP
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Pic: Kyodo/AP

Chief secretary Eric Chan told reporters that contractors working on the renovations used substandard materials in hard-to-reach areas, effectively hiding them from inspectors.

The officials said that foam insulation used by contractors also fanned the flames, and fire alarms at the complex were not working properly.

Sky News had previously learnt that residents raised their fears over fire safety connected to extensive renovations on Wang Fuk Court as early as September 2024.

Read more: Hong Kong mourns those lost to fire

Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

Labour Department acknowledges reply ‘was unclear’

In a statement to Sky News, Hong Kong’s Labour Department acknowledged that, in reply to these complaints, it told residents the mesh was designed to limit objects falling from the scaffolding and that “current safety regulations applied to construction sites by the Labour Department do not cover flame-retardant standards for scaffolding netting or any materials”.

They now acknowledge this reply to residents “was unclear and caused misunderstanding”.

Pics: Hong Kong Police Public Relations Branch/AP
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Pics: Hong Kong Police Public Relations Branch/AP

The Labour Department also told residents they judged the risk of a fire on the scaffolding was “relatively low”, because the works did not include activities such as welding.

In its statement to Sky News, the Labour Department says this did not mean the risk was negligible, and also noted contractors had been reminded to “implement fire prevention measures.”

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‘It could have been avoided’

The blaze broke out at the Wang Fuk Court housing complex in the city’s Tai Po district on Wednesday.

Records show the site consists of eight blocks, with almost 2,000 apartments housing around 4,800 residents, including many elderly people.

It was built in the 1980s and has recently been undergoing a major renovation.

On Sunday, more than 1,000 people turned out to pay tribute to the victims of the fire, queuing for more than a kilometre to lay flowers, some with sticky notes attached addressed to the victims.

Pics: Reuters
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Pics: Reuters

Man calling for probe detained

Meanwhile, it emerged that police detained Miles Kwan, 24, who was part of a group that launched a petition demanding an independent probe into possible corruption and a review of construction oversight.

An online petition demanding an independent probe into possible corruption and a review of construction oversight drew over 10,000 signatures before it was closed.

Another petition with similar demands attracted more than 2,700 signatures with its plea for “explicit accountability” from the government.

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Two people familiar with the matter told Reuters that Kwan was detained on Saturday. The news outlet could not establish whether he had been arrested.

He was pictured leaving a police station in a taxi on Monday afternoon.

Miles Kwan leaves a police station following his detention.
Pic: Reuters
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Miles Kwan leaves a police station following his detention.
Pic: Reuters

Police did not comment on the case, and Hong Kong Security Chief Chris Tang also declined to comment on specific operations at a press conference on Monday.

He added: “I’ve noticed that some people with malicious intent, aiming to harm Hong Kong and national security, have taken advantage of this painful moment for society.

“Therefore, we must take appropriate action, including enforcement measures.”

In a statement about the arrest, Luk Chi-man, executive director of Amnesty International Hong Kong Overseas, said: “We urge the Hong Kong authorities to establish the full facts of last week’s tragedy through a thorough, independent, impartial and open investigation, and to publicly clarify the cause of the fire, hold relevant persons accountable and release all findings without delay.

“It is both a right and a duty for people in Hong Kong to demand this kind of accountability; but rather than recognise this, the Hong Kong authorities have instead chosen to silence those who raise their concerns and demands.

“A healthy society should not have only one voice.”

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