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On 20 July, Rishi Sunak could become the first prime minister since Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three seats at by-elections on the same day.

The Conservative Party’s implosion over MP misconduct and whether Boris Johnson lied to parliament has presented election watchers with an intriguing set of contests.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London, vacated by Mr Johnson himself, gives Labour a shot at a seat well within the swings (around eight points) they have already achieved in this parliament.

Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, where Johnson ally Nigel Adams has stepped aside, requires an 18-point swing for a Labour win. This is beyond both the national 12-point swing the party needs for an overall majority at the next general election and the 16-point swing suggested by recent polls. Gaining Selby would also set a record for the size of majority overturned by Labour at a by-election.

Given stellar Liberal Democrat performances since 2021, Somerton and Frome should be easy pickings for the party David Cameron once obliterated from the South West. A swing of 15 points would topple yet another Tory seat in the south of England.

The results will give an insight into how voters view the government’s effort to tackle inflation, rising interest rates and NHS waiting lists and whether they think it’s time to give Sir Keir Starmer a go at solving them. But, as ever, by-elections develop their own character and local priorities can intervene.

So, what’s at play in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton?

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Uxbridge and South Ruislip

Established in 2010, the seat of Uxbridge has elected Conservatives since then. Boris Johnson won more than half the vote at each of the last three contests. It even bucked the London trend to back Brexit.

A suburban commuter town on the western edge of metropolitan London, it includes both a university and RAF Northolt. The area hasn’t experienced the same urban development as much of the capital, but the demographics have been moving in Labour’s favour.

The latest census suggests the population has become younger, more educated, and more diverse than a decade ago, all likely indicators of Labour support. That said, look a little closer and it’s an inconsistent picture.

Students dominate in the university areas around Uxbridge and Colham where more people live in rented homes. The working-class area of Yiewsley is the most Labour friendly. While South Ruislip is the main Tory territory. Here, you find older owner-occupiers and commuters. The rising Asian community also seems to have given the Tories a hearing.

These differences may be one reason why Uxbridge has been ‘sticky’ at election time. In 2019 Boris Johnson was defending the smallest majority of any prime minister since 1924, just over 5,000 votes. Despite Labour’s best efforts he increased that to over 7,000. It means Labour need an eight-point swing, just half that suggested by the national polls, to win the seat for the first time.

But, as ever at by-elections, it might not be that simple.

The most recent elections in the constituency were for Hillingdon Council in 2022 and the results showed little enthusiasm for Labour, despite a record Conservative defeat across the capital on the same day.

Labour won just one of the seven wards that sit entirely within the constituency – Yiewsley. To succeed on 20 July, they need to maximise their vote there and persuade the students of the Colham and Cowley ward to turn out.

But there’s a local factor dominating the contest that could render the national politics largely irrelevant.

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The Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ), a tax on cars which don’t meet certain emissions standards, is being extended by London’s Labour mayor to cover the area in August. Unlike inner London, this is a constituency where around four in five households have a car and one in three have two or more. The issue has prompted two of the extensive list of 17 candidates to change their names to include the phrases “Anti-ULEZ” and “No-ULEZ”.

The length of the ballot paper could also be a problem for the main parties. It gives voters plenty of options other than Labour, ranging from UKIP, which has done well here in the past, to Piers Corbyn (brother of Jeremy), and Laurence Fox. The Conservatives will hope voters read to the end as their candidate is listed last thanks to his place in the alphabet.

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With a declaration not expected until after 3am, those watching Sky News will have plenty of time to consider the turnout. Invariably lower at by-elections than general elections, there’s no way of knowing why people do and don’t vote or who did and didn’t. However, we can estimate a reasonable figure.

Based on contests so far this parliament, we expect turnout to be around 27 points lower than in 2019 in all three constituencies. For Uxbridge that means something in the region of 40%.

Selby and Ainsty

A record-breaking result could come at the other end of England, in Selby and Ainsty. Nestled in the North Yorkshire countryside, this seat is a mix of rural villages and towns surrounded by churches and historical battle sites.

Almost everything about it says Tory heartland and since its creation in 2010 that’s how people here have voted. Nigel Adams’s decision to resign, because he was denied a peerage, means Selby will have a change of MP for the first time.

If Labour were to win, it would set a record. The highest majority the party has overturned at a by-election is 14,654 votes in Mid-Staffordshire more than 30 years ago.

But while the demographics here might not be trending in Labour’s favour, as more than a fifth of people are aged over 60, the issues are. Selby and Ainsty is in the top 40 seats in England and Wales for mortgage holders. 37% of households have a mortgage and rising interest rates might impact the vote.

The latest council elections in 2022 also provide Labour with hope. They finished just six points behind the Conservatives despite managing to win only four of the 15 wards within the constituency. Labour needs to persuade voters in Selby, Sherburn and Appleton who did not support them then to do so now.

Turnout could be key too. In Selby, we suggest one of around 45% would be in line with recent by-elections.

With the general election creeping closer, Sir Keir Starmer needs to show he can win votes directly from the Conservatives in places throughout England, not just those with Labour history. Selby provides the perfect opportunity.

The 18-point swing required for victory would be the best Labour has achieved this parliament. By-elections aren’t ideal predictors of general election performance but, if they do win Selby, no doubt Labour will remind us they need a 12-point national swing for a parliamentary majority.

That is more than the record swing achieved by Tony Blair in 1997. Intriguingly, the estimates drawn up for Selby’s boundaries for 2005, Blair’s last election, put Labour just four points shy of the Conservatives. So perhaps winning Selby should be within Labour’s reach if it is to win a majority at the next general election.

The pressure to pull off the big win is on Labour candidate Keir Mather. At just 25, if elected, he would be the youngest MP in the Commons – the so-called Baby of the House.

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Somerton and Frome

In the West Country the Conservatives face a different challenger and a feeling of deja vu. Just a year ago the Liberal Democrats made by-election history overturning a record 24,239 Conservative majority in Tiverton and Honiton and now they’re back in Somerton and Frome.

Unlike Tiverton in Devon, this Somerset market town has substantial Lib Dem pedigree. For 18 years it was represented by the former Lib Dem minister David Heath until the Tories gained it in the 2015 post-coalition sweep of the South West.

David Warburton was the winner then and it is his departure after allegations of cocaine use, which he admits, and sexual misconduct, which he denies, that has triggered this contest. He had built a substantial majority of more than 19,000 votes but this seat has often been competitive.

The population is largely older than average and less exposed to interest rates, with more than 43% of households owning their home without a mortgage. But they have been trending away from the Tories.

The 2022 Somerset Council results were terrible for the Conservatives and the biggest falls were in the wards that make up Somerton and Frome. The Liberal Democrats were first in 10 of those 13 wards, taking 40% of the vote, while the Conservatives managed to win just one. Even the Greens managed two.

And you can’t say Sarah Dyke, the Liberal Democrat candidate, doesn’t know how to defeat a Conservative. At those 2022 council elections, she beat Hayward Burt, CCHQ’s resident expert on conquering Liberal Democrats, to take her seat in Blackmoor Vale.

Now, she requires a swing of 15 points to become the MP for Somerton, which looks pretty modest compared to other Lib Dem wins this parliament.

We expect a reasonable turnout to be in the region of 48%.

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How to judge the result?

Rishi Sunak is unlikely to emerge from these by-elections unscathed.

On recent form, a loss in Somerton is expected and it will be further evidence the Conservatives could be fighting the next general election on two fronts.

Losing Uxbridge would be a blow to the Tories but no worse than other defeats in this parliament. Should Labour miss out, Sir Keir Starmer will have questions of his own to answer.

But attention will be elsewhere if Conservative rural Selby turns a record-breaking red. Labour could claim to be winning votes directly from the Tories even in their established heartlands.

Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat. If Labour wins that, who’s to say they can’t gain the 124 seats they need for a Westminster majority?

Watch live coverage of the by-election results on Sky News through the night from 11pm on Thursday 20 July.

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Gaza ceasefire ‘resumes’ after killings and suspension of aid test fragile truce

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3 hours ago

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October 20, 2025

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Gaza ceasefire 'resumes' after killings and suspension of aid test fragile truce

The Israeli military has said that a ceasefire in Gaza would hold after the truce was seriously tested by an attack that killed two Israeli soldiers and a wave of airstrikes that killed 36 Palestinians.

Aid supplies into the enclave are due to resume on Monday following US pressure, an Israeli security source said, shortly after Israel announced a halt in supplies in response to what it called a “blatant” violation by Hamas of the truce.

A little over a week has passed since the start of the US-proposed ceasefire aimed at ending two years of war.

Israel‘s military said militants fired at troops in areas of Rafah city that are Israeli-controlled, according to agreed-upon ceasefire lines.

The military said Israel responded with airstrikes and artillery, hitting dozens of Hamas targets. It also said its forces struck “terrorists” approaching troops in Beit Lahiya in the north.

Health officials said at least 36 Palestinians were killed across Gaza, including children.

An injured child is carried to Nasser Hospital after an airstrike in Khan Younis, Gaza. Pic: AP
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An injured child is carried to Nasser Hospital after an airstrike in Khan Younis, Gaza. Pic: AP

One airstrike hit a former school sheltering displaced families in the area of Nuseirat, killing four people, according to Al Awda Hospital, which received the casualties.

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Another hit a tent in the Muwasi area of Khan Younis in the south, killing at least four people, including a woman and two children, according to Nasser Hospital.

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directed the military to take “strong action” against any ceasefire violations but did not threaten to return to war.

The armed wing of Hamas continued to accuse Israel of multiple ceasefire violations, but said it remained committed to the ceasefire agreement.

It said communication with its remaining units in Rafah had been cut off for months, adding “we are not responsible for any incidents occurring in those areas”.

Children were injured and some were killed in Sunday's strikes, local health officials say. Pic: AP
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Children were injured and some were killed in Sunday’s strikes, local health officials say. Pic: AP

In a statement on social media on Sunday evening, the IDF said it had “begun the renewed enforcement of the ceasefire, in line with the terms of the agreement”.

“The IDF will continue to uphold the ceasefire agreement and will respond firmly to any violation of it,” it added.

An Israeli source told Sky News: “The bottom line is that we’re done responding. We are now back to where we were this morning before their attack.”

Fearing the truce may collapse, some Palestinians, many of whom have lacked sufficient food for months, rushed to buy goods from the main market in Nuseirat.

Further south in Khan Younis, other families fled their homes and shelters after airstrikes hit nearby.

Major hurdles still stand in the way of a long-lasting peace in Gaza. An earlier ceasefire collapsed in March when Israel launched a barrage of airstrikes.

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Ceasefire faces toughest test

The new ceasefire began on 10 October, but for days the Israeli government and Hamas have been trading accusations of ceasefire violations.

A senior Egyptian official involved in the ceasefire negotiations said “round-the-clock” contacts were under way to de-escalate the situation.

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Israel on Saturday pressed Hamas to returning the remains of all 28 dead hostages as promised under the ceasefire, saying the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt would stay closed “until further notice”.

Hamas says it has no reason to keep the bodies of the remaining hostages, but that it needs special equipment
recover corpses buried under rubble.

A Hamas delegation led by chief negotiator Khalil al Hayya has arrived in Cairo to follow up the implementation of the ceasefire deal with mediators and other Palestinian groups.

The next stages are expected to focus on disarming Hamas, Israeli withdrawal from additional areas it controls in Gaza, and future governance of the devastated territory.

The US plan proposes the establishment of an internationally-backed authority.

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‘Priceless’ jewellery stolen from Louvre museum in Paris – as authorities reveal details of daring raid

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18 hours ago

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October 19, 2025

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'Priceless' jewellery stolen from Louvre museum in Paris - as authorities reveal details of daring raid

“Priceless” jewellery has been stolen from the Louvre museum in Paris – as authorities revealed details of the daring raid that has forced the closure of the world famous landmark.

The museum, which is the world’s most popular, drawing up to 30,000 visitors a day, said on X it was closing for “exceptional reasons” on Sunday.

In a separate post, culture minister Rachida Dati said there had been a robbery and she was on site alongside museum and police teams.

Police working by a basket lift used by thieves at the Louvre museum in Paris. Pic: AP
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Police working by a basket lift used by thieves at the Louvre museum in Paris. Pic: AP

The Louvre museum in Paris. File pic: AP
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The Louvre museum in Paris. File pic: AP

French interior minister Laurent Nunez said the “major robbery” involved intruders entering the museum via a basket lift using a platform mounted on a lorry.

“They broke a window and went towards several display cases where they stole jewellery,” he added.

“These are jewels that have genuine heritage value and are, in fact, priceless.”

Mr Nunez told France Inter radio the robbery lasted seven minutes, while the interior ministry said the criminals fled on two motorbikes. No injuries have been reported.

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The robbers were well-prepared, Mr Nunez said, and “had done scouting”, cutting window panes “with a disc cutter” before escaping “on a TMAX” (a type of Yamaha maxi-scooter).

The robbery took place between 9.30 and 9.40am (8.30-8.40am UK time), the French government said in a statement, adding an investigation has begun, forensic work was under way and “a detailed list of the stolen items is being compiled”.

Hooded criminals carrying “small chainsaws” entered the building from the River Seine side, where construction work is taking place, French daily newspaper, Le Parisien, said, quoting preliminary findings from the police investigation.

A window believed to have been used in a robbery at the Louvre museum in Paris. Pic: Reuters
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A window believed to have been used in a robbery at the Louvre museum in Paris. Pic: Reuters

Thieves used a basket lift mounted on a lorry to rob the Louvre. Pic: AP
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Thieves used a basket lift mounted on a lorry to rob the Louvre. Pic: AP

Intruders went to the Galerie d’Apollon (Apollo Gallery), home to a selection of the French Crown Jewels, the ministry said.

The robbers escaped with nine pieces of jewellery from Napoleon and the Empress’s collection.

A necklace, a brooch, a tiara, were among the items taken from the Napoleon and French Sovereigns display cases. A third robber stayed outside, Le Parisien said.

One of the stolen gems was later found broken outside the museum, according to the paper, which said it was believed to be Empress Eugenie’s crown.

Police sealed off the museum and evacuated visitors. New arrivals were turned away and nearby streets were closed, according to the interior ministry.

Social media users posted pictures and videos from in and outside the building, with one people leaving in what the user described as “total panic”.

Robbers broke in on the Seine side of the museum. Pic: Reuters
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Robbers broke in on the Seine side of the museum. Pic: Reuters

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On person on X said they were there and reported a confused-sounding scene of police “running near pyramid and trying to enter the Louvre from glass side doors but they were locked and they could not enter”.

“Everyone inside was running and banging on glass doors to get out, but could not open. Police and military police arrived,” they added.

It’s not the first time the museum, one of the world’s most famous and a French national landmark, has been targeted by thieves.

In 1911, the Mona Lisa vanished from its frame, stolen by a former worker who hid inside the museum and walked out with the painting under his coat.

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It was recovered two years later in Florence – an episode that helped make Leonardo da Vinci’s portrait the world’s best-known artwork.

In 1983, two Renaissance-era pieces of armour were stolen and only recovered nearly four decades later.

The museum’s collection also bears the legacy of Napoleonic-era looting, containing 33,000 works of art, including antiquities, sculptures and paintings.

In addition to the Mona Lisa, its star attractions feature the Venus de Milo and the Winged Victory of Samothrace.

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World

Hamas hands over bodies of two more hostages, Israel confirms

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1 day ago

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October 19, 2025

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Hamas hands over bodies of two more hostages, Israel confirms

Israel has received the bodies of two more hostages from the Red Cross, the Israeli prime minister’s office has confirmed.

Shortly after 10pm UK time on Saturday, Israel’s military said Hamas handed over “two coffins of deceased hostages”.

There has been no identification of the bodies yet.

The news came as tensions were beginning to rise over the closure of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt.

Benjamin Netanyahu‘s office had said earlier on Saturday evening that it would stay closed “until further notice” – as the deadline for Hamas to return the bodies of the hostages had passed with no confirmation.

Mr Netanyahu had warned that its reopening would depend on how Hamas fulfilled its role in returning the remains of all 28 dead hostages.

The handover brings the count of returned bodies to 12 hostages, up from 10, according to Israel’s tally. Another 16 deceased hostages would then still have to be returned.

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All 28 were supposed to have been handed over by last Monday.

The handover of remains is among key points – along with aid deliveries into Gaza and the devastated territory’s future – in the ceasefire process meant to end two years of war.

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Rafah crossing to remain closed

Israel’s foreign ministry had originally said the Rafah crossing would likely reopen on Sunday – another step in the fragile ceasefire. This has now been revised to being closed “until further notice”.

A satellite image shows the back-up of aid trucks at the border from the air. Pic: ©2025 Vantor/Reuters
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A satellite image shows the back-up of aid trucks at the border from the air. Pic: ©2025 Vantor/Reuters

A fully reopened crossing would make it easier for Gazans to seek medical treatment, travel internationally or visit family in Egypt, which is home to tens of thousands of Palestinians.

It is unclear who will operate the crossing’s heavily damaged Gaza side once the war ends.

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Meanwhile, Gaza’s ruins were being scoured for the dead, over a week into a ceasefire. Newly recovered bodies brought the Palestinian toll above 68,000, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.

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The ministry, part of the Hamas-run government, does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count. But the ministry maintains detailed casualty records that are seen as generally reliable by UN agencies and independent experts.

Famine declared

Israel has disputed them without providing its own toll.

Hamas-led militants killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted 251 people in the attack on southern Israel that sparked the war on October 7 2023.

Gaza’s more than two million people are hoping the ceasefire will bring relief from the humanitarian disaster caused by Israel’s offensive. Throughout the war, Israel restricted aid entry to Gaza – sometimes halting it altogether.

Famine was declared in Gaza City, and the UN says it has verified more than 400 people who died of malnutrition-related causes, including more than 100 children.

Officials in Israel say they have let in enough food, accusing Hamas of stealing much of it. The UN and other aid agencies deny this claim.

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