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A new economic organisation, set up by Liz Truss, will launch on Wednesday, with a report claiming the average British person is £10,000 worse off than people in the US.

The Growth Commission, made up of economists brought together by the former prime minister, said its work would focus on highlighting the issue of low growth – echoing Ms Truss’ priorities during her short-lived premiership.

In its first piece of work, the group will claim “consistent growth levels” of 3% by 2040 are achievable in the UK, and would lead to £35,000-worth of higher spending per household.

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The Commission does not outline policy suggestions of how to reach this figure, but said it would provide further analysis around large scale fiscal events.

Co-chairman Douglas Williams said he hoped the report would kick off a “fruitful, non-partisan exploration” of why there is a problem with low growth and “what governments around the world can do to reinvigorate our economies and improve lives”.

The report says UK GDP per capita is currently £36,568, compared to £52,996 in the US.

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“The average American is earning a third more than the average Briton, roughly a £10,000 gap in annual spending power between the two, which represents a difference of £24,000 between the average household in the UK and the US,” it adds.

“If over the next two decades the UK economy could achieve annual GDP per capita growth of 3% – as was achieved in the UK in 1950s and is currently being achieved in a country like Poland – the economy would be 65% bigger by 2040.

“This translates in today’s money to nearly £15,000 more for each person to spend each year; and additional tax revenues of £670bn.”

The group’s second co-chairman, Shanker Singham, claimed opportunities for growth in the UK were “abundant and increasing”.

He added: “Failure to act will see us miss out on the opportunities presented by huge technological advances that we have seen especially over the last 20 years.”

But with the former PM’s reputation in Downing Street to contend with, the Commission’s suggestions could come in for criticism.

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Liz Truss’s rise and fall

Ms Truss took over in Number 10 back in September, with a promise to take on the so-called “anti-growth coalition” both in parliament and Whitehall.

But following a number of un-costed tax cuts outlined in her mini-budget, the markets were sent into a spiral, damaging both the economy and her credentials.

She attempted to save her premiership by sacking her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, and bringing in Jeremy Hunt to reverse the policies.

But Ms Truss lost the support of the Conservative Party and resigned after just 49 days in power.

Mr Hunt remained as chancellor in Rishi Sunak’s cabinet and the pair have taken a different approach, focusing on cutting inflation rather than taxes.

However, despite promises to halve the figure before the year is out, the number has remained stubborn and the Bank of England has continued to increase interest rates as a result.

And figures released on Tuesday showed fixed mortgage rates were now higher than in the fall-out from the mini-budget.

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Octopus to get tentacles around Hammond-backed fintech fund

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Octopus to get tentacles around Hammond-backed fintech fund

One of Britain’s leading venture capital investors is close to unveiling a deal to take over a nascent fintech fund which counted Lord Hammond, the former chancellor, among its advisors.

Sky News has learnt that Octopus Ventures has provisionally agreed to absorb the Fintech Growth Fund (FGF), which boasted of financial commitments from Barclays, the London Stock Exchange’s parent company, Mastercard and NatWest Group after it was set up three years ago.

The FGF has struggled to hit its original fundraising target and has yet to formally disclose any investments.

Sources close to a number of its investors said it was expected to be taken over by Octopus Investments in the coming weeks, with the transaction to be completed by the end of June.

Peel Hunt, the investment bank, had been advising on the fundraising for the last two years, and was itself an investor in the fund.

The FGF was originally conceived as a vehicle that would back high-potential UK-based fintechs, largely between their Series B and pre-public listing rounds of funding.

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According to an announcement made in August 2023, it aimed to make between four and eight investments annually, with cheques of between £10m and £100m.

In addition to Lord Hammond, the FGF’s advisory board included Dame Jayne-Anne Gadhia, the former Virgin Money boss; Baroness Morrissey, the former Legal & General Investment Management executive; Lord Grimstone, the former trade minister; and Sir Charles Bowman, former Lord Mayor of London.

Octopus Investments, which is now run by Erin Platt, the former boss of Silicon Valley Bank UK, is said to have significant ambitions for the FGF, which has built a lengthy pipeline of potential investments.

A spokesperson for Octopus Investments declined to comment this weekend, while the FGF could not be reached for comment.

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Mission: Impossible? Chancellor heads to the IMF with a very big challenge – and she’s not alone

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Mission: Impossible? Chancellor heads to the IMF with a very big challenge - and she's not alone

There will be much to chew over at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meetings this week.

Central bankers and finance ministers will descend on Washington for its latest bi-annual gathering, a place where politicians and academics converge, all of them trying to make sense of what’s going on in the global economy.

Everything and nothing has changed since they last met in October – one man continues to dominate the agenda.

Six months ago, delegates were wondering if Donald Trump could win the election and what that might mean for tax and tariffs: How far would he push it? Would his policy match his rhetoric?

Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters

This time round, expect iterations of the same questions: Will the US president risk plunging the world’s largest economy into recession?

Yes, he put on a bombastic display on his so-called “Liberation Day”, but will he now row back? Have the markets effectively checked him?

Behind the scenes, finance ministers from around the world will be practising their powers of persuasion, each jostling for meetings with their US counterparts to negotiate a reduction in Trump’s tariffs.

That includes Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is still holding out hope for a trade deal with the US – although she is not alone in that.

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Could Trump make a deal with UK?

Are we heading for a recession?

The IMF’s economists have already made up their minds about Trump’s potential for damage.

Last week, they warned about the growing risks to financial stability after a period of turbulence in the financial markets, induced by Trump’s decision to ratchet up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.

By the middle of this week the organisation will publish its World Economic Outlook, in which it will downgrade global growth but stop short of predicting a full-blown recession.

Others are less optimistic.

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said last week: “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”

She acknowledged the world was undergoing a “reboot of the global trading system,” comparing trade tensions to “a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over”.

She went on: “To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.”

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing on the Global Policy Agenda to open the IMF and World Bank's 2024 annual Spring Meetings in Washington, U.S., April 18, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
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IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva. Pic: Reuters

Don’t poke the bear

It was a carefully calibrated response. Georgieva did not lay the blame at the US’s door and stopped short of calling on the Trump administration to stop or water down its aggressive tariffs policy.

That might have been a choice. To the frustration of politicians past and present, the IMF does not usually shy away from making its opinions known.

Last year it warned Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes, and back in 2022 it openly criticised the Liz Truss government’s plans, warning tax cuts would fuel inflation and inequality.

Taking such a candid approach with Trump invites risks. His administration is already weighing up whether to withdraw from global institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank.

The US is the largest shareholder in both, and its departure could be devastating for two organisations that have been pillars of the world economic order since the end of the Second World War.

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Here in the UK, Andrew Bailey has already raised concerns about the prospect of global fragmentation.

It is “very important that we don’t have a fragmentation of the world economy,” the Bank of England’s governor said.

“A big part of that is that we have support and engagement in the multilateral institutions, institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, that support the operation of the world economy. That’s really important.”

The Trump administration might take a different view when its review of intergovernmental organisations is complete.

That is the main tension running through this year’s spring meetings.

How much the IMF will say and how much we will have to read between the lines, remains to be seen.

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Landlords of major discount retailer brace for swingeing rent cuts

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Landlords of major discount retailer brace for swingeing rent cuts

The new owner of The Original Factory Shop (TOFS), one of Britain’s leading independent discount retailers, is preparing to unveil a package of savage rent cuts for its store landlords.

Sky News understands that Modella Capital – which recently agreed to buy WH Smith’s high street arm – is finalising plans for a company voluntary arrangement (CVA) at TOFS.

City sources said the CVA – which requires court approval – could be unveiled within days.

Property sources cited industry rumours that significant store closures and job losses could form part of TOFS’ plans, while demands for two-year rent-free periods at some shops are said to also feature.

A spokesman for Modella declined to comment.

Modella, which also owns Hobbycraft, bought TOFS from its previous owner, Duke Street Capital, just two months ago.

Almost immediately, it engaged restructuring experts at Interpath to work on the plans.

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Sources have speculated that dozens of TOFS stores could close under a CVA, while a major distribution centre is also thought to feature in the proposals.

Any so-called ‘landlord-led’ CVA which triggered store closures would inevitably lead to job losses among TOFS’ workforce, which was said to number about 1,800 people at the time of the takeover.

TOFS, which sells beauty brands such as L’Oreal, the sportswear label Adidas and DIY tools made by Black & Decker, trades from about 180 stores.

The chain, which was founded in 1969, was bought by the private equity firm Duke Street in 2007.

Duke Street had tried to sell the business before, having supported it through the COVID-19 pandemic with a cash injection of more than £10m.

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