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July and December are always vicious months in the calendar at Westminster.

No matter when the monarch officiates at the official state opening of parliament, summer and winter are natural climaxes in the year when reckoning takes place.

In 2023, we have already had early casualties as parliament backed the reports of the standards and privileges committee. Boris Johnson has resigned as an MP and so have two colleagues, with more set to follow.

That is the overture to the drama which will unfold next week, when parliament is sitting for the last time before the long summer recess.

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On Wednesday, Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are actually billed to turn up for the last PMQs until September, in the hope that they can send their MPs off in good spirits.

Then on Thursday there are three by-elections simultaneously in which the Conservatives are widely expected to lose all three hitherto comfortable seats. Such is the grim mood for Tories it will be an even bigger sensation if the Tories hang on to any of them.

To absorb the shock waves of these events both the prime minister and the leader of the opposition may well carry out long overdue reshuffles of the cabinet and shadow cabinet teams.

The three by-elections have all been triggered by Conservative MPs who resigned voluntarily, albeit with clouds hanging over their heads. Boris Johnson quit before a by-election could be triggered following his lengthy suspension from the house.

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By-election battlegrounds

At the 2019 General Election he had a 7,210 majority and 52.6% of the votes.

A close ally, Nigel Adams, stood down in Selby and South Ainsty after failing to receive the peerage which Mr Johnson had promised him. In 2019, he had 60.3% of the votes and a 20,137 majority.

David Warburton had the Tory whip withdrawn last year following cocaine and sex allegations. He finally quit complaining that he had been denied a fair hearing by parliament’s harassment investigators. He had 55.8% of the vote and a 19,219 majority in 2019.

By-elections are often exaggerated expressions of how the voters are feeling about the government.

There have been 13 by-elections this parliament

Early in this parliament, Boris Johnson’s popularity in the so-called red wall constituencies was proved by the Conservative’s unlikely victory in the formerly rock-solid Labour seat of Hartlepool, once held by the New Labour mastermind Peter Mandelson.

The tide has turned since then. There have been 13 by-elections this parliament, many held by the incumbent party, but the Conservatives have lost three seats to the Liberal Democrats and one to Labour.

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MPs spend 88,000 hours working elsewhere

Labour regained Wakefield after Imran Ahmed Khan, the incumbent Tory MP, was jailed for child sexual assault. The Liberal Democrats won in North Shropshire after Mr Johnson tried to protect his friend Owen Paterson from suspension for commercial lobbying.

They picked up Tiverton and Honiton after Tory MP Neil Parrish quit after being reported for watching online pornography in the Commons chamber. There was no scandal around the death of Dame Cheryl Gillan. She had campaigned vigorously but unsuccessfully on her constituents’ behalf to stop her government’s HS2 railway.

By-elections are useful political weathervanes. More often than not the biggest drops in support for the ruling party at by-elections come in the years leading up to a change of government.

On average, the Conservatives were down 14.1% before Harold Wilson beat Sir Alec Douglas Home, and 19.9% before the New Labour landslide victory in 1997. Harold Wilson was down 17.3% before Ted Heath’s surprise victory in 1970.

General sense is the Conservatives are heading for defeat

Jim Callaghan’s Labour was down 9.3% before the 1979. Gordon Brown was down 10.4% by 2010, although one of the biggest erosions was 19.9% in Labour support in the previous 2001 parliament. It just wasn’t big enough to destroy the massive lead built up under Tony Blair.

The general sense at Westminster is that the Conservatives are heading to defeat at the next election. That explains the pessimism about Tory chances on Thursday.

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‘Have you overpromised domestically?’

The well-known American pollster Frank Luntz told a private meeting of Conservative MPs that anyone with a majority of 15,000 or less should be seriously worried about their chances of holding their seat. On that basis, the Conservative candidates in North Yorkshire and Somerset should be hopeful.

Unfortunately for them that is not what polling in either Somerton or Selby points to. By-elections bring additional media attention and voters tend to punish parties if their MP has been forced out in disgrace or bothered them by called an election unnecessarily.

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An upset, which these days means the Conservatives hanging on, looks most likely in Uxbridge and Ruislip, the most marginal constituency of the three being contested. Boris Johnson brought celebrity glamour to suburban London, and some of his former voters still love him and resent him being forced out, as they see it.

The Labour Mayor of London’s plan to extent ULEZ, the ultra-low emission zone, to all of London including the constituency is not popular with many, since it would penalise those with polluting vehicles. The Labour candidate is now opposing his party’s ULEZ plan.

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A surprise Tory victory in Boris Johnson’s old stomping ground would be a mixed blessing for Rishi Sunak. It would be bound to encourage his supporters to claim that Mr Johnson and his polices are what the voters really like.

To prove it Nadine Dorries, another unhappy peerage refusenik, might at last execute her long delayed threat to resign her own seat in Bedfordshire Mid (2019 majority 24,664, 59.8%), plunging the government into further by-election turmoil.

There may well be another tricky by-election for the government soon in Tamworth (2019, Conservatives 66.3%, majority 19,634). A recall petition is due following the suspension of Chris Pincher from parliament for sexual misconduct.

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A similar recall petition is under way in Scotland in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West Constituency following the suspension ex-SNP MP Margaret Ferrier for breaking COVID lockdown rules. If the expected by-election takes place, Labour is hoping to oust the SNP.

Politicians often like to play down opinion polls saying they prefer real votes in real ballot boxes. That is exactly what parliamentary by-elections are. The three results will be scrutinised closely as they come in on Friday, including on Sky News.

They will give a true pointer of which way the wind is blowing and pile conflicting pressures on the party leaders for their reshuffles. To improve their electoral performance should they trim towards the centre or play to their party activists?

Looking at the prospects and the reasons for the elections in Yorkshire, London and Somerset it looks as if tidying up is taking place at the end of a fraying and exhausted government, but it is real voters who will decide next week.

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Abolishing Ofwat and compulsory water meters – key recommendations from landmark report into ‘broken’ water industry

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'Broken' water industry set to be overhauled - nine key recommendations from landmark report

The system for regulating water companies in England and Wales should be overhauled and replaced with one single body in England and another in Wales, a once-in-a-generation review of the sector has advised.

The report, which includes 88 recommendations, suggests a new single integrated regulator to replace existing water watchdogs, mandatory water metering, and a social tariff for vulnerable customers.

The ability to block companies being taken over and the creation of eight new regional water authorities, with another for all of Wales to deliver local priorities, has also been suggested.

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The review, the largest into the water industry since privatisation in the 1980s, was undertaken by Sir Jon Cunliffe, a career civil servant and former deputy governor of the Bank of England who oversaw the biggest clean-up of Britain’s banking system in the wake of the financial crash.

File pic: iStock
Image:
File pic: iStock

He was coaxed out of retirement by Environment Secretary Steve Reed to lead the Independent Water Commission.

Final recommendations of the commission have been published on Monday morning to clean up the sector and improve public confidence, as bills rise 36% over the next five years. Here are its nine key recommendations:

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• Single integrated water regulators – a single water regulator in England and a single water regulator in Wales. In England, this would replace Ofwat, the Drinking Water Inspectorate and water-environment related functions from the Environment Agency and Natural England. In Wales, Ofwat’s economic responsibilities would be integrated into Natural Resources Wales.

It’s hoped this will solve the “fragmented and overlapping” regulation, and more stable regulation will improve investor confidence. Communications regulator Ofcom was given as an example of how combining five existing regulators into one worked.

• Eight new regional water system planning authorities in England and one national authority in Wales to be responsible for water investment plans reflecting local priorities and streamlining the planning processes.

The new authorities would be independent, made up of representatives from local councils, public health officials, environmental advocates, agricultural voices and consumers. The aim is they could direct funding and ensure accountability from all sectors impacting water.

• Greater consumer protection – this includes upgrading the consumer body Consumer Council for Water, into an Ombudsman for Water to give stronger protection to customers and a clearer route to resolving complaints. Advocacy duties are to be transferred to Citizens Advice.

• Stronger environmental regulation, including compulsory water meters. Also proposed by Sir Jon are changes to wholesale tariffs for industrial users and greater water reuse and rainwater harvesting schemes. A new long-term, legally binding target for the water environment was suggested.

• Oversight of companies via the ability to block changes in ownership of water businesses when they are not seen to be prioritising the long-term interests of the company and its customers, and the addition of “public benefit” clauses in water company licences.

To boost company financial resilience, as the UK’s biggest provider, Thames Water struggles to remain in private ownership, the commission has recommended minimum financial requirements, like banks are subject to. This could mean utilities hold a certain amount of cash. It’s hoped this will, in turn, make companies more appealing to potential investors.

• The public health element of water has been recognised, and senior public health representation has been recommended for regional water planning authorities, as have new laws to address pollutants like forever chemicals and microplastics.

• Fundamental reset of economic regulation – including changes to ensure companies are investing in and maintaining assets to help attract long-term, low-risk investment. A “supervisory” approach has been recommended to intervene before things like pollution occur, rather than penalising the businesses after the event.

• Clear strategic direction – a long-term, 25-year national water strategy should be published by the UK and Welsh governments, with ministerial priorities given to water firms every five years.

• Infrastructure and asset health reforms – companies should also be required to map and assess their assets and resilience.

Nationalisation of the water industry was not in the Independent Water Commission’s terms of reference and so was not considered.

How has the report been received?

In a speech responding to Sir Jon’s report, Mr Reed is set to describe the water industry as “broken” and welcome the commission’s recommendations to ensure “the failures of the past can never happen again”.

The water industry lobby group Water UK said “fundamental change has been long overdue”.

“These recommendations should establish the foundations to secure our water supplies, support economic growth and end sewage entering our rivers and seas,” a spokesperson said.

“The Independent Water Commission has written a comprehensive, detailed review of the whole sector, with many wide-ranging and ambitious recommendations.

“Crucially, it is now up to government to decide which recommendations it will adopt, and in what way, but the commission’s work marks a significant step forward.”

Campaign group Surfers Against Sewage said the report “utterly fails to prioritise public benefit over private profit”.

“This is not transformational reform, this is putting lipstick on a pig - and you can bet the champagne is flowing in water company boardrooms across the land,” said its chief executive, Giles Bristow.

“Only one path forward remains: a full, systemic transformation that ends the ruthless pursuit of profit and puts the public good at the heart of our water services,” he said.

“We welcome Sir Jon’s calls for a national strategy, enshrining public health objectives in law and regional water planning. But we won’t be taken for fools - abolishing Ofwat and replacing it with a shinier regulator won’t stop sewage dumping or profiteering if the finance and ownership structures stay the same.”

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Water wars: What difference will it make?

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Water wars: What difference will it make?

👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈

The Government announces the “Reed Reforms” to fix Britain’s water system, but will it make a difference?

Sky News’ Sam Coates and Politico’s Anne McElvoy consider if customers’ bills will go down and what practical changes will be made.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer meets with two world leaders later this week ahead of the parliamentary summer recess.

Plus, we hear about an unexpected visitor in the Coates household.

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US bank lobby challenges crypto firms’ bids for bank licences

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US bank lobby challenges crypto firms’ bids for bank licences

US bank lobby challenges crypto firms’ bids for bank licences

US banking and credit union groups asked the OCC to delay deciding on bank license applications from crypto firms, arguing there are “significant policy and process concerns.”

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