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July and December are always vicious months in the calendar at Westminster.

No matter when the monarch officiates at the official state opening of parliament, summer and winter are natural climaxes in the year when reckoning takes place.

In 2023, we have already had early casualties as parliament backed the reports of the standards and privileges committee. Boris Johnson has resigned as an MP and so have two colleagues, with more set to follow.

That is the overture to the drama which will unfold next week, when parliament is sitting for the last time before the long summer recess.

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On Wednesday, Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are actually billed to turn up for the last PMQs until September, in the hope that they can send their MPs off in good spirits.

Then on Thursday there are three by-elections simultaneously in which the Conservatives are widely expected to lose all three hitherto comfortable seats. Such is the grim mood for Tories it will be an even bigger sensation if the Tories hang on to any of them.

To absorb the shock waves of these events both the prime minister and the leader of the opposition may well carry out long overdue reshuffles of the cabinet and shadow cabinet teams.

The three by-elections have all been triggered by Conservative MPs who resigned voluntarily, albeit with clouds hanging over their heads. Boris Johnson quit before a by-election could be triggered following his lengthy suspension from the house.

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By-election battlegrounds

At the 2019 General Election he had a 7,210 majority and 52.6% of the votes.

A close ally, Nigel Adams, stood down in Selby and South Ainsty after failing to receive the peerage which Mr Johnson had promised him. In 2019, he had 60.3% of the votes and a 20,137 majority.

David Warburton had the Tory whip withdrawn last year following cocaine and sex allegations. He finally quit complaining that he had been denied a fair hearing by parliament’s harassment investigators. He had 55.8% of the vote and a 19,219 majority in 2019.

By-elections are often exaggerated expressions of how the voters are feeling about the government.

There have been 13 by-elections this parliament

Early in this parliament, Boris Johnson’s popularity in the so-called red wall constituencies was proved by the Conservative’s unlikely victory in the formerly rock-solid Labour seat of Hartlepool, once held by the New Labour mastermind Peter Mandelson.

The tide has turned since then. There have been 13 by-elections this parliament, many held by the incumbent party, but the Conservatives have lost three seats to the Liberal Democrats and one to Labour.

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MPs spend 88,000 hours working elsewhere

Labour regained Wakefield after Imran Ahmed Khan, the incumbent Tory MP, was jailed for child sexual assault. The Liberal Democrats won in North Shropshire after Mr Johnson tried to protect his friend Owen Paterson from suspension for commercial lobbying.

They picked up Tiverton and Honiton after Tory MP Neil Parrish quit after being reported for watching online pornography in the Commons chamber. There was no scandal around the death of Dame Cheryl Gillan. She had campaigned vigorously but unsuccessfully on her constituents’ behalf to stop her government’s HS2 railway.

By-elections are useful political weathervanes. More often than not the biggest drops in support for the ruling party at by-elections come in the years leading up to a change of government.

On average, the Conservatives were down 14.1% before Harold Wilson beat Sir Alec Douglas Home, and 19.9% before the New Labour landslide victory in 1997. Harold Wilson was down 17.3% before Ted Heath’s surprise victory in 1970.

General sense is the Conservatives are heading for defeat

Jim Callaghan’s Labour was down 9.3% before the 1979. Gordon Brown was down 10.4% by 2010, although one of the biggest erosions was 19.9% in Labour support in the previous 2001 parliament. It just wasn’t big enough to destroy the massive lead built up under Tony Blair.

The general sense at Westminster is that the Conservatives are heading to defeat at the next election. That explains the pessimism about Tory chances on Thursday.

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‘Have you overpromised domestically?’

The well-known American pollster Frank Luntz told a private meeting of Conservative MPs that anyone with a majority of 15,000 or less should be seriously worried about their chances of holding their seat. On that basis, the Conservative candidates in North Yorkshire and Somerset should be hopeful.

Unfortunately for them that is not what polling in either Somerton or Selby points to. By-elections bring additional media attention and voters tend to punish parties if their MP has been forced out in disgrace or bothered them by called an election unnecessarily.

Mayor’s plan to extend ULEZ is not popular with many

An upset, which these days means the Conservatives hanging on, looks most likely in Uxbridge and Ruislip, the most marginal constituency of the three being contested. Boris Johnson brought celebrity glamour to suburban London, and some of his former voters still love him and resent him being forced out, as they see it.

The Labour Mayor of London’s plan to extent ULEZ, the ultra-low emission zone, to all of London including the constituency is not popular with many, since it would penalise those with polluting vehicles. The Labour candidate is now opposing his party’s ULEZ plan.

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A surprise Tory victory in Boris Johnson’s old stomping ground would be a mixed blessing for Rishi Sunak. It would be bound to encourage his supporters to claim that Mr Johnson and his polices are what the voters really like.

To prove it Nadine Dorries, another unhappy peerage refusenik, might at last execute her long delayed threat to resign her own seat in Bedfordshire Mid (2019 majority 24,664, 59.8%), plunging the government into further by-election turmoil.

There may well be another tricky by-election for the government soon in Tamworth (2019, Conservatives 66.3%, majority 19,634). A recall petition is due following the suspension of Chris Pincher from parliament for sexual misconduct.

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A similar recall petition is under way in Scotland in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West Constituency following the suspension ex-SNP MP Margaret Ferrier for breaking COVID lockdown rules. If the expected by-election takes place, Labour is hoping to oust the SNP.

Politicians often like to play down opinion polls saying they prefer real votes in real ballot boxes. That is exactly what parliamentary by-elections are. The three results will be scrutinised closely as they come in on Friday, including on Sky News.

They will give a true pointer of which way the wind is blowing and pile conflicting pressures on the party leaders for their reshuffles. To improve their electoral performance should they trim towards the centre or play to their party activists?

Looking at the prospects and the reasons for the elections in Yorkshire, London and Somerset it looks as if tidying up is taking place at the end of a fraying and exhausted government, but it is real voters who will decide next week.

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‘My lawyers are ready’ for questions about corruption claims, ex-minister tells Sky News

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'My lawyers are ready' for questions about corruption claims, ex-minister tells Sky News

Tulip Siddiq has told Sky News her “lawyers are ready” to handle any formal questions about allegations she is involved in corruption in Bangladesh.

Asked whether she regrets apparent links with the Bangladeshi Awami League political party, Ms Siddiq said “why don’t you look at my legal letter and see if I have any questions to answer… [the Bangladeshi authorities] have not once contacted me and I’m waiting to hear from them”.

The London MP resigned as a Treasury minister in January after being named in several corruption inquiries in Bangladesh.

In her first public comments since leaving government, Ms Siddiq said “there’s been allegations for months on end and no one has contacted me”.

Last month, the interim leader of Bangladesh told Sky News the MP had “wealth left behind” in the country “and should be made responsible”.

Lawyers acting for Ms Siddiq wrote to the Bangladeshi Anti Corruption Commission (ACC) several weeks ago saying the allegations were “false and vexatious”.

The letter said the ACC must put questions to Ms Siddiq “by no later than 25 March 2025” or “we shall presume that there are no legitimate questions to answer”.

More on Bangladesh

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Staff from the NCA visited Bangladesh as part of initial work to support the interim government in the country.

In a post online today, the former minister said the deadline had expired and the authorities had not replied.

Sky News has approached the Bangladeshi government for comment.

The allegations against Ms Siddiq are focused on links to her aunt Sheikh Hasina – who served as the prime minister of Bangladesh for 20 years.

Ms Hasina was forced to flee the country in August following weeks of deadly protests.

She is accused of becoming an autocrat, with politically-motivated arrests, extra-judicial killings and other abuses allegedly happening on her watch. Hasina claims it’s all a political witch hunt.

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Ms Siddiq was found to have lived in several London properties that had links back to the Awami League political party that her aunt still leads.

She referred herself to the prime minister’s standards adviser Sir Laurie Magnus who said he had “not identified evidence of improprieties” but added it was “regrettable” Ms Siddiq had not been more alert to the “potential reputational risks” of the ties to her aunt.

Ms Siddiq said continuing in her role would be “a distraction” for the government but insisted she had done nothing wrong.

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Former New York governor advised OKX over $505M federal probe: Report

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Former New York governor advised OKX over 5M federal probe: Report

Former New York governor advised OKX over 5M federal probe: Report

Cryptocurrency exchange OKX reportedly hired former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo to advise it over the federal probe that resulted in the firm pleading guilty to several violations and agreeing to pay $505 million in fines and penalties.

Cuomo, a New York-registered attorney, advised OKX on legal issues stemming from the probe sometime after August 2021 when he resigned as New York overnor, Bloomberg reported on April 2, citing people familiar with the matter.

“He spoke with company executives regularly and counseled them on how to respond to the criminal investigation,” Bloomberg said.

The Seychelles-based firm pled guilty to operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business in violation of US Anti-Money Laundering laws on Feb. 24 and agreed to pay $84 million worth of penalties while forfeiting $421 million worth of fees earned from mostly institutional clients.

The breaches occurred from 2018 to 2024 despite OKX having an official policy preventing US persons from transacting on its crypto exchange since 2017, the Department of Justice noted at the time.

A spokesperson for Cuomo, Rich Azzopardi, told Bloomberg that Cuomo has been providing private legal services representing individuals and corporations on a variety of matters since resigning as New York governor.

“He has not represented clients before a New York city or state agency and routinely recommends former colleagues for positions,”  Azzopardi added.

OKX reportedly wasn’t willing to comment on its relationships with outside firms.

Cuomo also influenced OKX to make executive appointments: Bloomberg

Cuomo, who is now running for mayor of New York City, also advised OKX to appoint his friend US Attorney Linda Lacewell to OKX’s board of directors, Bloomberg said.

Lacewell, a former superintendent of the New York Department of Financial Services, was added to the board in 2024 and was named OKX’s new chief legal officer on April 1, according to a recent company statement.

Former New York governor advised OKX over $505M federal probe: Report

Source: Linda Lacewell

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After the investigation concluded, OKX said it would seek out a compliance consultant to remedy the issues stemming from the federal probe and bolster its regulatory compliance program.

“Our vision is to make OKX the gold standard of global compliance at scale across different markets and their respective regulatory bodies,” OKX CEO Star Xu said in a Feb. 24 X post.

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Trump imposes 10% tariff on all countries, reciprocal levies on trading partners

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Trump imposes 10% tariff on all countries, reciprocal levies on trading partners

Trump imposes 10% tariff on all countries, reciprocal levies on trading partners

United States President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing reciprocal tariffs on trading partners and a 10% baseline tariff on all imports from all countries.

The reciprocal levies on will be approximately half of what trading partners charge for US imports, Trump said. For example, China currently has a tariff of 67% on US imports, so US reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods will be 34%. Trump also announced a standard 25% tariff on all automobile imports.

Trump told the media that tariffs would return the country to economic prosperity seen in previous centuries:

“From 1789 to 1913, we were a tariff-backed nation. The United States was proportionately the wealthiest it has ever been. So wealthy, in fact, that in the 1880s, they established a commission to decide what they were going to do with the vast sums of money they were collecting.”

“Then, in 1913, for reasons unknown to mankind, they established the income tax so that citizens, rather than foreign countries, would start paying,” Trump said.

Economy, US Government, United States, Donald Trump

Full breakdown of reciprocal tariffs by country. Source: Cointelegraph

Trump presented the tariffs through the lens of economic protectionism and hinted at returning to the economic policies of the 19th century by using them to replace the income tax.

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Trump proposes eliminating federal income tax and replacing it with tariff revenue

Trump proposed the idea of abolishing the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and funding the federal government exclusively through trade tariffs while still on the campaign trail in October 2024.

According to accounting automation company Dancing Numbers, Trump’s plan could save each American taxpayer $134,809-$325,561 in taxes throughout their lives.

Economy, US Government, United States, Donald Trump

US President Donald Trump addresses the media about reciprocal trade tariffs at the April 2 press event. Source: Fox 4 Dallas

The higher range of the tax savings estimate will only occur if other wage-based taxes are eliminated at the state and municipal levels.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who assumed office in February, also voiced support for replacing the IRS with the “External Revenue Service.”

Lutnick said that the US government cannot balance a budget yet consistently demands more from its citizens every year. Tariffs will also protect American workers and strengthen the US economy, he said.

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