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July and December are always vicious months in the calendar at Westminster.

No matter when the monarch officiates at the official state opening of parliament, summer and winter are natural climaxes in the year when reckoning takes place.

In 2023, we have already had early casualties as parliament backed the reports of the standards and privileges committee. Boris Johnson has resigned as an MP and so have two colleagues, with more set to follow.

That is the overture to the drama which will unfold next week, when parliament is sitting for the last time before the long summer recess.

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On Wednesday, Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are actually billed to turn up for the last PMQs until September, in the hope that they can send their MPs off in good spirits.

Then on Thursday there are three by-elections simultaneously in which the Conservatives are widely expected to lose all three hitherto comfortable seats. Such is the grim mood for Tories it will be an even bigger sensation if the Tories hang on to any of them.

To absorb the shock waves of these events both the prime minister and the leader of the opposition may well carry out long overdue reshuffles of the cabinet and shadow cabinet teams.

The three by-elections have all been triggered by Conservative MPs who resigned voluntarily, albeit with clouds hanging over their heads. Boris Johnson quit before a by-election could be triggered following his lengthy suspension from the house.

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By-election battlegrounds

At the 2019 General Election he had a 7,210 majority and 52.6% of the votes.

A close ally, Nigel Adams, stood down in Selby and South Ainsty after failing to receive the peerage which Mr Johnson had promised him. In 2019, he had 60.3% of the votes and a 20,137 majority.

David Warburton had the Tory whip withdrawn last year following cocaine and sex allegations. He finally quit complaining that he had been denied a fair hearing by parliament’s harassment investigators. He had 55.8% of the vote and a 19,219 majority in 2019.

By-elections are often exaggerated expressions of how the voters are feeling about the government.

There have been 13 by-elections this parliament

Early in this parliament, Boris Johnson’s popularity in the so-called red wall constituencies was proved by the Conservative’s unlikely victory in the formerly rock-solid Labour seat of Hartlepool, once held by the New Labour mastermind Peter Mandelson.

The tide has turned since then. There have been 13 by-elections this parliament, many held by the incumbent party, but the Conservatives have lost three seats to the Liberal Democrats and one to Labour.

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MPs spend 88,000 hours working elsewhere

Labour regained Wakefield after Imran Ahmed Khan, the incumbent Tory MP, was jailed for child sexual assault. The Liberal Democrats won in North Shropshire after Mr Johnson tried to protect his friend Owen Paterson from suspension for commercial lobbying.

They picked up Tiverton and Honiton after Tory MP Neil Parrish quit after being reported for watching online pornography in the Commons chamber. There was no scandal around the death of Dame Cheryl Gillan. She had campaigned vigorously but unsuccessfully on her constituents’ behalf to stop her government’s HS2 railway.

By-elections are useful political weathervanes. More often than not the biggest drops in support for the ruling party at by-elections come in the years leading up to a change of government.

On average, the Conservatives were down 14.1% before Harold Wilson beat Sir Alec Douglas Home, and 19.9% before the New Labour landslide victory in 1997. Harold Wilson was down 17.3% before Ted Heath’s surprise victory in 1970.

General sense is the Conservatives are heading for defeat

Jim Callaghan’s Labour was down 9.3% before the 1979. Gordon Brown was down 10.4% by 2010, although one of the biggest erosions was 19.9% in Labour support in the previous 2001 parliament. It just wasn’t big enough to destroy the massive lead built up under Tony Blair.

The general sense at Westminster is that the Conservatives are heading to defeat at the next election. That explains the pessimism about Tory chances on Thursday.

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‘Have you overpromised domestically?’

The well-known American pollster Frank Luntz told a private meeting of Conservative MPs that anyone with a majority of 15,000 or less should be seriously worried about their chances of holding their seat. On that basis, the Conservative candidates in North Yorkshire and Somerset should be hopeful.

Unfortunately for them that is not what polling in either Somerton or Selby points to. By-elections bring additional media attention and voters tend to punish parties if their MP has been forced out in disgrace or bothered them by called an election unnecessarily.

Mayor’s plan to extend ULEZ is not popular with many

An upset, which these days means the Conservatives hanging on, looks most likely in Uxbridge and Ruislip, the most marginal constituency of the three being contested. Boris Johnson brought celebrity glamour to suburban London, and some of his former voters still love him and resent him being forced out, as they see it.

The Labour Mayor of London’s plan to extent ULEZ, the ultra-low emission zone, to all of London including the constituency is not popular with many, since it would penalise those with polluting vehicles. The Labour candidate is now opposing his party’s ULEZ plan.

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A surprise Tory victory in Boris Johnson’s old stomping ground would be a mixed blessing for Rishi Sunak. It would be bound to encourage his supporters to claim that Mr Johnson and his polices are what the voters really like.

To prove it Nadine Dorries, another unhappy peerage refusenik, might at last execute her long delayed threat to resign her own seat in Bedfordshire Mid (2019 majority 24,664, 59.8%), plunging the government into further by-election turmoil.

There may well be another tricky by-election for the government soon in Tamworth (2019, Conservatives 66.3%, majority 19,634). A recall petition is due following the suspension of Chris Pincher from parliament for sexual misconduct.

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A similar recall petition is under way in Scotland in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West Constituency following the suspension ex-SNP MP Margaret Ferrier for breaking COVID lockdown rules. If the expected by-election takes place, Labour is hoping to oust the SNP.

Politicians often like to play down opinion polls saying they prefer real votes in real ballot boxes. That is exactly what parliamentary by-elections are. The three results will be scrutinised closely as they come in on Friday, including on Sky News.

They will give a true pointer of which way the wind is blowing and pile conflicting pressures on the party leaders for their reshuffles. To improve their electoral performance should they trim towards the centre or play to their party activists?

Looking at the prospects and the reasons for the elections in Yorkshire, London and Somerset it looks as if tidying up is taking place at the end of a fraying and exhausted government, but it is real voters who will decide next week.

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Trump has acted for his country, I will act in Britain’s interests, says Starmer

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Trump's tariffs are about something more than economics: power

Donald Trump has acted for his country and I will act in Britain’s interests, Sir Keir Starmer has said after the US president imposed 10% tariffs on UK goods.

The prime minister told business chiefs at an early morning meeting in Downing Street: “Last night the president of the United States acted for his country, and that is his mandate.

“Today, I will act in Britain’s interests with mine.”

Politics latest: Starmer says UK will react to tariffs with ‘cool and calm head’

Mr Trump announced sweeping tariffs on countries around the world, with the UK getting off relatively lightly with 10% tariffs – branded “kind reciprocal” by the president – compared with China, which will have to pay 54% tariffs and 20% for the EU.

A previously announced 25% tariff on British car imports to the US came into effect at 5am on Thursday.

Sir Keir said the government is moving “to the next stage of our plan” after negotiations failed to fend off any tariffs ahead of Wednesday’s announcement.

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He promised any decisions “will be guided only by our national interest, in the interests of our economy, in the interests of businesses around this table, in the interests of putting money in the pockets of working people”.

Keir Starmer hosts a meeting with business leaders in 10 Downing Street following the announcement of tariffs by US President Donald Trump.
Pic: Simon Dawson/No 10 Downing Street
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Sir Keir Starmer hosted business leaders in Downing Street on Thursday morning. Pic: Simon Dawson/No 10 Downing Street

“Clearly, there will be an economic impact from the decisions the US has taken, both here and globally,” he told the business leaders.

“But I want to be crystal clear: we are prepared, indeed one of the great strengths of this nation is our ability to keep a cool head.”

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told the Commons on Thursday the government is considering retaliatory measures and requested British businesses let him know what the tariff implications will be for them.

An “indicative list of potential products” that could be targeted was later published, with 8,364 categories covering about 27% of UK imports from the US.

Earlier, Mr Reynolds told Wilfred Frost on Sky News Breakfast his “job is not done” when it comes to negotiating a trade deal

Mr Reynolds refused to say if the tariffs might cause a global recession and said the UK has safeguards in place to ensure it is not flooded with goods that would have gone to other countries.

“We’ll take any powers we need to protect the British people and the British economy from that,” he said.

“What we have directly within our power, alongside that is, of course, the ability to negotiate a better deal in the national interest for the UK. That’s been our approach to date and we’ll continue with that.”

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Trump’s tariffs explained

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Moment Trump unveils tariffs chart

UK will be template for other nations’ deals

The business secretary also suggested if the UK is successful in negotiating a deal with the US “there’ll be a template there” for other countries to “resolve some of these issues”.

He reiterated statements he and the PM have made over the past few days as he said: “America is a friend, America’s our principal ally.

“Our relationship is an incredibly strong economic one, but also a security one, a political one as well.”

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Sky’s Ed Conway examines how economies across the world are impacted by tariffs

Government ‘very slow’ to start talks

Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Sky News the government had been “very slow” to start negotiating a free trade agreement with the US, and they should have started when Mr Trump was elected in November, even though he did not get sworn in until the end of January.

He said the UK being hit by a lower tariff than the EU was “one of the benefits of Brexit”.

However, he said the 25% tariff on car exports to the US is “very, very serious” and the global impact is “bad news for our economy”.

Relief in Westminster – but concessions to Trump to come

It has been quite a rollercoaster for the government, where they went from the hope that they could avoid tariffs, that they could get that economic deal, to the realisation that was not going to happen, and then the anticipation of how hard would the UK be hit.

In Westminster tonight, there is actual relief because the UK is going to have a 10% baseline tariff – but that is the least onerous of all the tariffs we saw President Trump announce.

He held up a chart of the worst offenders, and the UK was well at the bottom of that list.

No 10 sources were telling me as President Trump was in the Rose Garden that while no tariffs are good, and it’s not what they want, the fact the UK has tariffs that are lower than others vindicates their approach.

They say it’s important because the difference between a 20% tariff and a 10% tariff is thousands of jobs.

Where to next? No 10 says it will “keep negotiating, keep cool and calm”, and reiterated Sir Keir Starmer’s desire to “negotiate a sustainable trade deal”.

“Of course want to get tariffs lowered. Tomorrow we will continue with that work,” a source added.

Another source said the 10% tariff shows that “the UK is in the friendlies club, as much as that is worth anything”.

Overnight, people will be number-crunching, trying to work out what it means for the UK. There is a 25% tariff on cars which could hit billions in UK exports, in addition to the blanket 10% tariff.

But despite this being lower than many other countries, GDP will take a hit, with forecasts being downgraded probably as we speak.

I think the government’s approach will be to not retaliate and try to speed up that economic deal in the hope that they can lower the tariffs even further.

There will be concessions. For example, the UK could lower the Digital Services Tax, which is imposed on the UK profits of tech giants. Will they loosen regulation on social media companies or agricultural products?

But for now, there is relief the UK has not been hit as hard as many others.

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Trump’s tariffs will have an impact before too long – but how will the UK respond?

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Trump's tariffs will have an impact before too long – but how will the UK respond?

The list has landed.

More than 400 pages of thousands of goods that could be affected by reciprocal tariffs against the US.

Everything from fresh domestic ducks to sea-going dredgers makes the cut; most symbolic, however, are iconic American items like jeans, motorcycles and whiskey.

Would Donald Trump stand for a levy on Levi’s? It’s not the first time this battle has played out.

When the US president announced tariffs on steel and aluminium in his first term, the EU responded with its own – including a symbolic 25% tax on American whiskey.

At the time, the UK, then an EU member, followed suit.

But as the UK tries to carve its own path outside the bloc, vindicated by the baseline 10% tariffs imposed instead of the EU’s rate of 20%, the aim is to avoid retaliation.

The government want us to know “all options are on the table” – but that is not how they want this to play out.

“This is not a short-term tactical exercise,” the prime minister said this morning.

Despite the business secretary’s best efforts during his recent trip to Washington to try to secure a UK tariffs carveout, no deal was reached in time.

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How will tariffs hit working people?

Mr Trump wanted his big bang, board brandishing moment; carveouts for certain countries would have softened the impact of his speech.

But with 90-plus countries on the tariff billboard, how far along the queue is any UK deal?

And how much are we willing to give? Will the sensitive subject of chlorinated chicken be on the table? What of the agreement to cut taxes on big tech companies that Mr Trump wants?

Lots of questions. The day after the surreal night before is too soon to know all the answers, but this is about politics as much as it is about economics.

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As the prime minister launched Labour’s local election campaign in Derbyshire today, he talked about potholes, high streets and school meals. Every question I heard was about tariffs.

Decisions made across the Atlantic are looming large. Tariffs may not directly sway many votes in the local elections, but the consequences for Rachel Reeves’s fiscal headroom and the amount of money she has to spend, or save, will have an impact before too long.

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Woman whose son Martyn Hett died in Manchester Arena terror attack welcomes new law in his name

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Woman whose son Martyn Hett died in Manchester Arena terror attack welcomes new law in his name

There is a certain steel about a mother who has lost a child.

It’s hard to put your finger on, but perhaps after going through hell you re-emerge made of a different material to the rest of us.

Figen Murray has been utterly relentless after her son Martyn Hett was killed in the Manchester Arena terror attack at an Ariana Grande concert in May 2017.

When she worried that politicians’ support was wavering last year, she walked 200 miles from the place Martyn died to Downing Street – and needed a hip replacement after.

And on Thursday, Martyn’s Law – rules to better train staff and safeguard venues against terrorists – was passed by royal assent, finally becoming law.

I sat down with Figen just before she went into Number 10 Downing Street to meet the prime minister, and she told me after six years of campaigning, the moment “feels surreal”.

She continued: “The Manchester attack was a wake up call. But it also made question, who are these people who do these things? Why are they doing it? What are governments doing about it? And I realised the only way I could get the answers was to educate myself – so I did a masters in counter-terrorism.

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I’ve recognised that people were radicalised. When you were a newborn baby, you were innocent but somebody poisoned your mind.

“There are people who try to groom young people into their ideology, and I want them to recognise where these people operate, the tricks they use, the things they say and how they can recognise themselves or others in the process of being radicalised and how to get out.”

Martyn Hett
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Martyn Hett

She also supports the initiative to show the Netflix drama Adolescence in schools: “I think it’s absolutely important that young people see that programme and they learn more about it. It’s a good thing and I’m hoping they’re taking it further.”

There will be a debate – certainly – about the financial impact the legislation will have on venues, but the legislation has been welcomed by safety campaigners.

Emma Kay, co-founder of personal safety app WalkSafe which geo-fences events and stadiums, said: “The passing of Martyn’s Law is hugely progressive move that will keep young people safe on nights out.

“Our research has shown that 63% of women prefer to visit venues with safety initiatives in place. People want safer experiences and to know their friends and loved ones arrive home safely.”

Read more:
Martyn’s Law: Terrorism response bill named after Manchester Arena bombing victim becomes law

When I sat down with Figen, I asked her how Martyn would feel today.

“Knowing Martyn, the party animal he was, he’d throw the biggest party ever,” she said.

“He was full of life and lived life not just at 100 miles an hour, but 200 miles an hour.

“You would definitely know when he came through the door, and he had an incredible ability to make everyone feel that they are the most important person in that moment in his life. And I really miss that.”

You can watch Sophy Ridge’s full interview with Figen Murray on the Politics Hub at 1900 on Sky News.

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