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July and December are always vicious months in the calendar at Westminster.

No matter when the monarch officiates at the official state opening of parliament, summer and winter are natural climaxes in the year when reckoning takes place.

In 2023, we have already had early casualties as parliament backed the reports of the standards and privileges committee. Boris Johnson has resigned as an MP and so have two colleagues, with more set to follow.

That is the overture to the drama which will unfold next week, when parliament is sitting for the last time before the long summer recess.

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On Wednesday, Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are actually billed to turn up for the last PMQs until September, in the hope that they can send their MPs off in good spirits.

Then on Thursday there are three by-elections simultaneously in which the Conservatives are widely expected to lose all three hitherto comfortable seats. Such is the grim mood for Tories it will be an even bigger sensation if the Tories hang on to any of them.

To absorb the shock waves of these events both the prime minister and the leader of the opposition may well carry out long overdue reshuffles of the cabinet and shadow cabinet teams.

The three by-elections have all been triggered by Conservative MPs who resigned voluntarily, albeit with clouds hanging over their heads. Boris Johnson quit before a by-election could be triggered following his lengthy suspension from the house.

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By-election battlegrounds

At the 2019 General Election he had a 7,210 majority and 52.6% of the votes.

A close ally, Nigel Adams, stood down in Selby and South Ainsty after failing to receive the peerage which Mr Johnson had promised him. In 2019, he had 60.3% of the votes and a 20,137 majority.

David Warburton had the Tory whip withdrawn last year following cocaine and sex allegations. He finally quit complaining that he had been denied a fair hearing by parliament’s harassment investigators. He had 55.8% of the vote and a 19,219 majority in 2019.

By-elections are often exaggerated expressions of how the voters are feeling about the government.

There have been 13 by-elections this parliament

Early in this parliament, Boris Johnson’s popularity in the so-called red wall constituencies was proved by the Conservative’s unlikely victory in the formerly rock-solid Labour seat of Hartlepool, once held by the New Labour mastermind Peter Mandelson.

The tide has turned since then. There have been 13 by-elections this parliament, many held by the incumbent party, but the Conservatives have lost three seats to the Liberal Democrats and one to Labour.

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MPs spend 88,000 hours working elsewhere

Labour regained Wakefield after Imran Ahmed Khan, the incumbent Tory MP, was jailed for child sexual assault. The Liberal Democrats won in North Shropshire after Mr Johnson tried to protect his friend Owen Paterson from suspension for commercial lobbying.

They picked up Tiverton and Honiton after Tory MP Neil Parrish quit after being reported for watching online pornography in the Commons chamber. There was no scandal around the death of Dame Cheryl Gillan. She had campaigned vigorously but unsuccessfully on her constituents’ behalf to stop her government’s HS2 railway.

By-elections are useful political weathervanes. More often than not the biggest drops in support for the ruling party at by-elections come in the years leading up to a change of government.

On average, the Conservatives were down 14.1% before Harold Wilson beat Sir Alec Douglas Home, and 19.9% before the New Labour landslide victory in 1997. Harold Wilson was down 17.3% before Ted Heath’s surprise victory in 1970.

General sense is the Conservatives are heading for defeat

Jim Callaghan’s Labour was down 9.3% before the 1979. Gordon Brown was down 10.4% by 2010, although one of the biggest erosions was 19.9% in Labour support in the previous 2001 parliament. It just wasn’t big enough to destroy the massive lead built up under Tony Blair.

The general sense at Westminster is that the Conservatives are heading to defeat at the next election. That explains the pessimism about Tory chances on Thursday.

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‘Have you overpromised domestically?’

The well-known American pollster Frank Luntz told a private meeting of Conservative MPs that anyone with a majority of 15,000 or less should be seriously worried about their chances of holding their seat. On that basis, the Conservative candidates in North Yorkshire and Somerset should be hopeful.

Unfortunately for them that is not what polling in either Somerton or Selby points to. By-elections bring additional media attention and voters tend to punish parties if their MP has been forced out in disgrace or bothered them by called an election unnecessarily.

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An upset, which these days means the Conservatives hanging on, looks most likely in Uxbridge and Ruislip, the most marginal constituency of the three being contested. Boris Johnson brought celebrity glamour to suburban London, and some of his former voters still love him and resent him being forced out, as they see it.

The Labour Mayor of London’s plan to extent ULEZ, the ultra-low emission zone, to all of London including the constituency is not popular with many, since it would penalise those with polluting vehicles. The Labour candidate is now opposing his party’s ULEZ plan.

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A surprise Tory victory in Boris Johnson’s old stomping ground would be a mixed blessing for Rishi Sunak. It would be bound to encourage his supporters to claim that Mr Johnson and his polices are what the voters really like.

To prove it Nadine Dorries, another unhappy peerage refusenik, might at last execute her long delayed threat to resign her own seat in Bedfordshire Mid (2019 majority 24,664, 59.8%), plunging the government into further by-election turmoil.

There may well be another tricky by-election for the government soon in Tamworth (2019, Conservatives 66.3%, majority 19,634). A recall petition is due following the suspension of Chris Pincher from parliament for sexual misconduct.

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A similar recall petition is under way in Scotland in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West Constituency following the suspension ex-SNP MP Margaret Ferrier for breaking COVID lockdown rules. If the expected by-election takes place, Labour is hoping to oust the SNP.

Politicians often like to play down opinion polls saying they prefer real votes in real ballot boxes. That is exactly what parliamentary by-elections are. The three results will be scrutinised closely as they come in on Friday, including on Sky News.

They will give a true pointer of which way the wind is blowing and pile conflicting pressures on the party leaders for their reshuffles. To improve their electoral performance should they trim towards the centre or play to their party activists?

Looking at the prospects and the reasons for the elections in Yorkshire, London and Somerset it looks as if tidying up is taking place at the end of a fraying and exhausted government, but it is real voters who will decide next week.

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Concessions to welfare reforms to be revealed after Labour backbench rebellion forces government retreat

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Concessions to welfare reforms to be revealed after Labour backbench rebellion forces government retreat

Changes to welfare reforms, forced on the government by rebel Labour MPs, are being revealed today ahead of a crucial vote.

The original bill restricted eligibility for the personal independence payment (pip) and cut the health-related element of universal credit (UC).

The government, which insisted welfare costs were becoming unsustainable, was forced into a U-turn after 126 Labour backbenchers signed an amendment that would have halted the bill at its first Commons hurdle.

Explainer: What are the welfare concessions?

While the amendment is expected to be withdrawn, after changes that appeased some Labour MPs, others are still unhappy and considering backing a similar amendment to be tabled today.

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Starmer defends welfare U-turn

Here are the main changes to the UC and pip bill:

• current pip claimants will keep their benefits; stricter eligibility requirements will only apply to new claims from November 2026
• a review of the pip assessment, which will have input from disabled people
• existing recipients of the health-related element of UC will have their incomes protected in real terms

More on Benefits

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said in a statement that the legislation now aims to deliver a “fairer, more compassionate system” ahead of the second reading and vote on Tuesday.

“We must build a welfare system that provides security for those who cannot work and the right support for those who can. Too often, disabled people feel trapped, worried that if they try to work, they could lose the support they depend on.

“That is why we are taking action to remove those barriers, support disabled people to live with dignity and independence, and open routes into employment for those who want to pursue it.

“This is about delivering a fairer, more compassionate system as part of our Plan for Change which supports people to thrive, whatever their circumstances.”

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall
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Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall insists welfare reforms will create ‘a fairer, more compassionate system’. Pic: PA

On Saturday, Sir Keir Starmer said fixing the UK’s welfare system was a “moral imperative”. The government claimed cuts to sickness and disability benefits would shave £5bn off the welfare bill and get more people into work.

The Resolution Foundation believes the concessions could cost as much as £3bn, while the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that the changes make tax rises more likely.

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Health Secretary Wes Streeting told Sky News that welfare bill changes have put Labour in a much better position ahead of tomorrow’s vote.

On Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Streeting said: “There were things that we didn’t get right, we’ve put right, and there’ll be a debate about future amendments and things, I’m sure, as it goes through in the usual way.”

Streeting talking to Trevor Phillips
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Talking to Sky News about the welfare reforms, Health Secretary Wes Streeting said there were things Labour ‘didn’t get right’

On the same programme, shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately repeatedly refused to say whether the Conservatives would back the bill, but would review the proposals after the minister’s statement later.

“We have said that if there are more savings that actually bring the welfare bill down, if they’ll get more people into work, and if they commit to using the savings to avoid tax cuts in the autumn, which looks highly unlikely at the moment, then they have our support.”

The Liberal Democrats plan to vote against the bill and have called for the government to speed up access-to-work decisions to help people enter the workforce.

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Welfare concessions should give people ‘peace of mind’, says Wes Streeting

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Welfare concessions should give people 'peace of mind', says Wes Streeting

Wes Streeting has suggested he is confident the government will now win a crunch vote on welfare cuts after Sir Keir Starmer made a number of concessions to prevent a damaging rebellion.

The health secretary told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips the alterations to the controversial welfare bill meant those in receipt of benefits now had “peace of mind”.

Asked whether he was confident the government would now win a vote on the reforms scheduled for Tuesday, Mr Streeting said: “Yes.

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“I think the changes that were made this week have put us in a much better position, not just on the vote on Tuesday, but on the substance of the package – because as a result of the changes, it means anyone watching this morning who’s in receipt of PIP, Personal Independence Payments, now has the peace of mind of knowing that their situation is protected.”

It comes after the prime minister carried out the most significant U-turn of his premiership at the end of the week in order to quell a growing rebellion over his welfare package.

More than 120 Labour MPs had signalled they were prepared to vote down the bill next week after they signed an amendment that would have stopped its progress through parliament – citing concerns about the impact on the most vulnerable and the lack of proper consultation with disabled groups.

More on Benefits

The scale of the rebellion – and the fact it spanned all wings of the party – alarmed Downing Street and led to Sir Keir making a number of changes to diffuse the anger.

Originally, the bill set out to tighten the eligibility criteria for PIP – money that is given to people, some of whom are in work, who have extra care or mobility needs as a result of a disability.

People who claim it are awarded points depending on their ability to do certain activities, such as washing and preparing food, which influences how much they will receive.

Currently claimants need to score a minimum of eight points across a range of tasks to qualify for the daily living element (there is a mobility element that is not affected by the plans). Under the new rules people will need to score a minimum of four points in at least one activity to qualify.

However, the changes made by Sir Keir mean existing PIP claimants will now be exempted from the stricter new criteria.

Alterations to Universal Credit, another type of benefit, mean that the health top-up will only be cut and frozen for new applications, as opposed to existing ones.

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Mr Streeting declined to say whether he thought those who decide to vote against the bill should lose the party whip, which would force them to sit as an independent MP in the Commons.

He said it was “not my decision”, but added that there was an “expectation that Labour MPs vote for the whip”.

In a series of interviews over the weekend, the prime minister acknowledged there had been some mishandling of the welfare debate and said he was “heavily focused” on world affairs before he was forced to U-turn on his welfare bill.

In a piece in The Sunday Times, Sir Keir said he was occupied with the G7 and NATO summits and the escalating tensions in the Middle East for much of the past two weeks.

“Getting it right is more important than ploughing on with a package which doesn’t necessarily achieve the desired outcome,” he said, adding that all the decisions made were his and that “I take ownership of them”.

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PM and ministers now admit welfare reforms went too far

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PM and ministers now admit welfare reforms went too far

It was only 10 days ago that embattled Welfare Secretary Liz Kendall, trying to convince MPs to back her reforms, said ministers were “firm in our convictions”.

People on Personal Independence Payments (PIP) and universal credit were too often being “written off”, while the welfare bill was becoming unsustainable.

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After an unprecedented rebellion by Labour MPs forced the prime minister into a significant retreat, today sees an interesting shift in those convictions.

Ms Kendall’s colleague Wes Streeting, who was drafted onto calls with angry backbenchers, tells Sky News he didn’t want disabled people in his constituency surgeries on a Friday, telling him they were worse off when that was not the intention.

This is exactly what many Labour MPs and disability groups were arguing was inevitable if current claimants were stripped of their benefits.

Sir Keir Starmer, in a series of Sunday newspaper interviews in which he reflects on mistakes, says he now believes there was no point ploughing ahead with something which “doesn’t necessarily achieve the desired outcome”.

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What are the concessions to the welfare bill – and will MPs back it?

Having rushed forward these reforms to save £5bn in the spending review, it now seems ministers are admitting the package needed more thought.

The welfare bill is rising sharply, and many voters broadly support the idea of tackling it.

But even if the draft legislation, which will affect new benefit claimants only, is voted through (and that’s still an “if'”, with dozens of Labour MPs still weighing it up), this debacle – for many MPs at least – goes to the heart of whose side the government is on.

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