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The government has signed an agreement to join an Indo-Pacific trading bloc, although the estimated benefit could only be £1.8bn in GDP.

In announcing the formal plans to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Rishi Sunak administration highlighted the £12trn value of the combined GDPs of all the member nations if the UK is included.

But the government already has free-trade deals with all the member nations, aside from Brunei and Malaysia.

Politics latest: Chances of free trade deal with US ‘very low’

Chances of a trade deal with the United States were also talked down as being unlikely anytime soon.

And analysis provided to the government estimates the new agreement will boost UK exports by £1.7bn, imports to the UK by £1.6bn and GDP by £1.8bn in the long term.

Speaking to Sophy Ridge on Sunday, Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch said these figures needed to be examined in the context of the benefits of being a member of a trading bloc.

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She said: “The contents of the free trade deals that we have with these countries is different from what we’re getting with CPTPP.

“That’s why it’s called the comprehensive – as well as progressive agreement – for the trans-Pacific partnership.

“There is one additional country, which is Malaysia, that we have no agreements whatsoever with, but it isn’t just about whether or not we have an agreement.

Who is in the CPTPP?

  • Australia
  • Brunei
  • Canada
  • Chile
  • Japan
  • Malaysia
  • Mexico
  • New Zealand
  • Peru
  • Singapore
  • Vietnam

“We’ve got agreements with many different countries – it is about the size, shape and scale and the cumulative impact of things like rules of origin, which are pooled between this trading bloc.”

Asked about the likelihood of an agreement with the US, Ms Badenoch said: “The US is not carrying out any free trade agreements with any country, so I would say very low. It all depends on the administration.”

She added: “But for now they said that that’s not something that they want to do, and we need to respect that.”

It is not the first time the government has lauded its own efforts with CPTPP, with Ms Badenoch and Mr Sunak praising the UK being accepted into the bloc in March.

The UK was already set to benefit from its agreements with the CPTPP regardless of the next phase of membership, with exports estimated to rise by 65% by the start of the next decade – valued at £37bn.

Ms Badenoch pointed out that the Indo-Pacific is forecasted to be where half of global growth will come from by around the middle of the 2030s, and will continue growing into the middle of the century.

Outside the UK government, there was more of a muted welcome for the UK’s joining the bloc.

Chris Devonshire-Ellis, the chairman of Dezan Shira & Associates which works with investors across Asia, spoke to the Nikkei overnight.

He said: “The impact appears mainly cosmetic, for the UK to show it made a trade deal after Brexit.”

Labour’s shadow trade secretary, Nick Thomas-Symonds, said progress in the Indo-Pacific was “long overdue”.

He added: “The government’s own assessment says CPTPP is worth just 0.08% to UK GDP.

“So ministers also need to set out how this will help the economy and what support will be given to businesses to access any export opportunities.

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“The government’s trade record is: OBR predict UK exports to fall by 6.6% in 2023, a hit of over £51bn; No promised US or India trade deals; Their own MPs criticising the Australia deal.

“This costs the UK growth and jobs – making the Tory economic crisis even worse.”

Trevor Phillips will host Sky News’ agenda-setting flagship political talk show when it returns in September

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China Merchants Bank tokenizes .8B fund on BNB Chain in Hong Kong

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CMBI’s tokenization initiative with BNB Chain builds on its previous work with Singapore-based DigiFT, which tokenized its fund on Solana in August.

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well,” the chancellor said when asked how she would deal with the country’s economic challenges in her 26 November statement.

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Ms Reeves was shown the first draft of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report, revealing the size of the black hole she must fill next month, on Friday 3 October.

She has never previously publicly confirmed tax rises are on the cards in the budget, going out of her way to avoid mentioning tax in interviews two weeks ago.

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Chancellor pledges not to raise VAT

Cabinet ministers had previously indicated they did not expect future spending cuts would be used to ensure the chancellor met her fiscal rules.

Ms Reeves also responded to questions about whether the economy was in a “doom loop” of annual tax rises to fill annual black holes. She appeared to concede she is trapped in such a loop.

Asked if she could promise she won’t allow the economy to get stuck in a doom loop cycle, Ms Reeves replied: “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do.”

She said that is why she is trying to grow the economy, and only when pushed a third time did she suggest she “would not use those (doom loop) words” because the UK had the strongest growing economy in the G7 in the first half of this year.

What’s facing Reeves?

Ms Reeves is expected to have to find up to £30bn at the budget to balance the books, after a U-turn on winter fuel and welfare reforms and a big productivity downgrade by the OBR, which means Britain is expected to earn less in future than previously predicted.

Yesterday, the IMF upgraded UK growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% of GDP this year – but also trimmed its forecast by 0.1% next year, also putting it at 1.3%.

The UK growth prospects are 0.4 percentage points worse off than the IMF’s projects last autumn. The 1.3% GDP growth would be the second-fastest in the G7, behind the US.

Last night, the chancellor arrived in Washington for the annual IMF and World Bank conference.

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‘I won’t duck challenges’

In her Sky News interview, Ms Reeves said multiple challenges meant there was a fresh need to balance the books.

“I was really clear during the general election campaign – and we discussed this many times – that I would always make sure the numbers add up,” she said.

“Challenges are being thrown our way – whether that is the geopolitical uncertainties, the conflicts around the world, the increased tariffs and barriers to trade. And now this (OBR) review is looking at how productive our economy has been in the past and then projecting that forward.”

She was clear that relaxing the fiscal rules (the main one being that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to rely on taxation alone, not borrowing) was not an option, making tax rises all but inevitable.

“I won’t duck those challenges,” she said.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well, but the numbers will always add up with me as chancellor because we saw just three years ago what happens when a government, where the Conservatives, lost control of the public finances: inflation and interest rates went through the roof.”

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

Blame it on the B word?

Ms Reeves also lay responsibility for the scale of the black hole she’s facing at Brexit, along with austerity and the mini-budget.

This could risk a confrontation with the party’s own voters – one in five (19%) Leave voters backed Labour at the last election, playing a big role in assuring the party’s landslide victory.

The chancellor said: “Austerity, Brexit, and the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-budget, all of those things have weighed heavily on the UK economy.

“Already, people thought that the UK economy would be 4% smaller because of Brexit.

“Now, of course, we are undoing some of that damage by the deal that we did with the EU earlier this year on food and farming, goods moving between us and the continent, on energy and electricity trading, on an ambitious youth mobility scheme, but there is no doubting that the impact of Brexit is severe and long-lasting.”

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Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

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Unlimited leverage and sentiment-driven valuations create cascading liquidations that wipe billions overnight. Crypto’s maturity demands systematic discipline.

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