Striking Writers Guild of America (WGA) members walk the picket line in front of Netflix offices as SAG-AFTRA union announced it had agreed to a ‘last-minute request’ by the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers for federal mediation, but it refused to again extend its existing labor contract past the 11:59 p.m. Wednesday negotiating deadline, in Los Angeles, California, July 12, 2023.
Mike Blake | Reuters
Traditional TV is dying. Ad revenue is soft. Streaming isn’t profitable. And Hollywood is practically shut down as the actors and writers unions settle in for what is shaping up to be a long and bitter work stoppage.
All of this turmoil will be on investors’ minds as the media industry kicks off its earnings season this week, with Netflix up firston Wednesday.
Netflix, with a new advertising model and push to stop password sharing, looks the best positioned compared to legacy media giants. Last week, for instance, Disney CEO Bob Iger extended his contract through 2026, telling the market he needed more time at the Mouse House to address the challenges before him. At the top of the list is contending with Disney’s TV networks, as that part of the business appears to be in a worse state than Iger had imagined. “They may not be core to Disney,” he said.
“I think Bob Iger’s comments were a warning about the quarter. I think they are very worrying for the sector,” said analyst Michael Nathanson of SVB MoffettNathanson following Iger’s interview with CNBC’s David Faber on Thursday.
Although the soft advertising market has been weighing on the industry for some quarters now, the recent introduction of a cheaper, ad-supported option for services like Netflix and Disney+ will likely be one bright spot as one of the few areas of growth and concentration this quarter, Nathanson said.
Iger has talked at length in recent investor calls and Thursday’s interview about how advertising is part of the plan to bring Disney+ to profitability. Others, including Netflix, have echoed the same sentiment.
Netflix will report earnings after the close Wednesday. Wall Street will be keen to hear more details about the rollout of its password sharing crackdown in the U.S. and state of its newly launched ad-supported option. The company’s stock is up nearly 50% this year, after a correction in 2022 that followed its first subscriber loss in a decade
Investor focus will also be on legacy media companies like Paramount Global, Comcast Corp. and Warner Bros. Discovery, which each have significant portfolios of pay-TV networks, following Iger’s comments that traditional TV “may not be core” to the company and all options, including a sale, were on the table. These companies and Disney will report earnings in the weeks ahead.
The strike – a result of the failed negotiations with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers – brings the industry to an immediate halt. It’s the first dual strike of this kind since 1960.
The labor fight blew up just as the industry has moved away from streaming growth at all costs. Media companies saw a boost in subscribers – and stock prices – earlier in the pandemic, investing billions in new content. But growth has since stagnated, resulting in budget cuts and layoffs.
“The strike happening suggests this is a sector in tremendous turmoil,” said Mark Boidman, head of media and entertainment investment banking at Solomon Partners. He noted shareholders, particularly hedge funds and institutional investors, have been “very frustrated” with media companies.
Iger told CNBC last week the stoppage couldn’t occur at a worse time, noting “disruptive forces on this business and all the challenges that we’re facing,” on top of the industry still recovering from the pandemic.
These are the first strikes of their kind during the streaming era. The last writers strike occurred in 2007 and 2008, which went on for about 14 weeks and gave rise to unscripted, reality TV. Hollywood writers have already been on strike since early May of this year.
Depending on the longevity of the strike, fresh film and TV content could dry up and leave streaming platforms and TV networks – other than library content, live sports and news – bare.
For Netflix, the strikes may have a lesser effect, at least in the near-term, Insider Intelligence analyst Ross Benes said. Content made outside the U.S. isn’t affected by the strike — an area where Netflix has heavily invested.
“Netflix is poised to do better than most because they produce shows so well in advance. And if push comes to shove, they can rely on international shows, of which they have so many,” said Benes. “Netflix is the antagonist in the eyes of strikes because of how it changed the economics of what writers get paid.”
Iger, who began his career in network TV, told CNBC last week that while he already had a “very pessimistic” view of traditional TV before his return in November, he has since found it’s even worse than he expected. The executivesaid Disney is assessing its network portfolio, which includes broadcaster ABC and cable channels like FX, indicating a sale could be on the table.
Paramount is currently considering a sale of a majority stake in its cable-TV network BET. In recent years Comcast’s NBCUniversal has shuttered networks like NBC Sports and combined sports programming on other channels like USA Network.
“The networks are a dwindling business, and Wall Street doesn’t like dwindling businesses,” said Nathanson. “But for some companies, there’s no way around it.”
Making matters worse, the weak advertising market has been a source of pain, particularly for traditional TV. It weighed on the earnings of Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery in recent quarters, each of which have big portfolios of cable networks.
Advertising pricing growth, which has long offset audience declines, is a key source of concern, according to MoffettNathanson’s recent report. The firm noted that this could be the first non-recessionary year that advertising upfronts don’t produce increases in TV pricing, especially as ad-supported streaming hits the market and zaps up inventory.
Streamers’ introduction of cheaper, ad-supported tiers will be a hot topic once again this quarter, especially after Netflix and Disney+ announced their platforms late last year.
“The soft advertising market affects everyone, but I don’t think Netflix is as affected as the TV companies or other established advertising streamers,” said Benes. He noted while Netflix is the most established streamer, its ad tier is new and has plenty of room for growth.
Advertising is now considered an important mechanism in platforms’ broader efforts to reach profitability.
“It’s not a coincidence that Netflix suddenly became judicious about freeloaders while pushing a cheaper tier that has advertising,” said Benes, referring to Netflix’s crackdown on password sharing. “That’s pretty common in the industry. Hulu’s ad plan gets more revenue per user than the plan without advertising.”
Last week’s ruling from a federal judge that Microsoft’s $68.7 billion acquisition of game publisher Activision Blizzard should move forward serves as a rare piece of good news for the media industry. It’s a signal that significant consolidation can proceed even if there’s temporary regulatory interference.
Although the Federal Trade Commission appealed the ruling, bankers took it as a win for dealmaking during a slow period for megadeals.
“This was a nice win for bankers to go into board rooms and say we’re not in an environment where really attractive M&A is going to be shot down by regulators. It’s encouraging,” said Solomon Partners’ Boidman.
As media giants struggle and shareholders grow frustrated, the judge’s ruling could fuel more deals as “a lot of these CEOs are on the defensive,” Boidman added.
Regulatory roadblocks have been prevalent beyond the Microsoft deal. A federal judge shut down book publisher Penguin Random House’s proposed purchase of Paramount’s Simon & Schuster last year. Broadcast station owner Tegna scrapped its sale to Standard General this year due to regulatory pushback.
“The fact that we are so focused on the Activision-Microsoft deal is indicative of a reality that dealmaking is going to be an enormous tool going forward to solidify market position and jump your company inorganically in ways you couldn’t do yourself,” said Jason Anderson, CEO of Quire, a boutique investment bank.
These CEOs won’t just do a deal to do a deal. From this point forward, it will take a higher bar to consolidate.
Peter Liguori
former Tribune Media CEO
Anderson noted bankers are always thinking about regulatory pushback, however, and it shouldn’t necessarily be the reason deals don’t come together.
Warner Bros. and Discovery merged in 2022, ballooning the combined company’s portfolio of cable networks and bringing together its streaming platforms. Recently, the company relaunched its flagship service as Max, merging content from Discovery+ and HBO Max. Amazonbought MGM the same year.
Other megadeals occurred before that, too. Comcast acquired U.K. broadcaster Sky in 2018. The next year, Disney paid $71 billion for Fox Corp.’s entertainment assets – which gave Disney “The Simpsons” and a controlling stake in Hulu, but makes up a small portion of its TV properties.
“The Simpsons”: Homer and Marge
Getty / FOX
“The Street and prognosticators forget that Comcast and Sky, Disney and Fox, Warner and Discovery —happened just a few years ago. But the industry talks as if these deals happened in BC not AD times,” said Peter Liguori, the former CEO of Tribune Media who’s a board member at TV measurement firm VideoAmp.
Consolidation is likely to continue once companies are finished working through these past mergers and get past lingering effects of the pandemic, such as increased spending to gain subscribers, he said. “These CEOs won’t just do a deal to do a deal. From this point forward, it will take a higher bar to consolidate.”
Still, with the rise of streaming and its lack of profitability and bleeding of pay-TV customers, more consolidation could be on the way, no matter what.
Whether M&A helps push these companies forward, however, is another question.
“My kneejerk reaction to the Activision-Microsoft ruling was there’s going to be more M&A if the FTC is going to be defanged,” Nathanson said. “But truth be told, Netflix built its business with licensing content and not having to buy an asset. I’m not really sure the big transactions to buy studios have worked out.”
–CNBC’s Alex Sherman contributed to this article.
Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.
Bitwise Spot Bitcoin ETF (BITB) signage on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Thursday, Jan. 11, 2024, with trading commencing on the first US exchange-traded funds that invest directly in the biggest cryptocurrency.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
If the vision of Larry Fink — CEO of BlackRock, the world’s biggest money manager — becomes reality, all assets from stocks to bonds to real estate and more would be tradable online, on a blockchain.
“Every asset — can be tokenized,” Fink wrote in his recent annual letter to investors.
Unlike traditional paper certificates signifying financial ownership, tokens live securely on a blockchain, enabling instant buying, selling, and transfers without paperwork or waiting — “much like a digital deed,” he wrote.
Fink says it would be nothing short of a “revolution” for investing. Think 24-hour markets and a trading settlement process that can be compacted down into seconds from a process that today can still take days, with billions of dollars reinvested immediately back into the economy.
But there’s one big problem, one technology challenge that stands in the way: the lack of a coordinated digital identity verification system.
While technology experts say Fink’s idea isn’t improbable, they agree that there are cybersecurity challenges ahead in making it work.
Verifying asset owners in world of AI deep fakes
Today, it’s not easy to verify online that the person you are interacting with is that person because of the prevalence of AI deepfakes and sophisticated cybercriminals, according to Christina Hulka, executive director of the Secure Technology Alliance, an organization focused on identity, access and payments. As a result, having a unified verification system would be useful because there would be cryptographic validation that people are who they say they are.
“The [financial services] industry is focused on how to build a zero-trust framework for identification. You don’t trust anything until it’s verified,” Hulka said. “The challenge is getting everyone together about which technology to use that makes it as simple and as seamless for the consumer as possible,” she added.
It’s hard to say precisely how a broad-based digital verification system would work but to support a fully tokenized financial structure, a system would, at a minimum, need to meet stringent security requirements, particularly those tied to financial regulations like the Know Your Customer rule and anti-money laundering rules, according to Zulfikar Ramzan, chief technology officer at Point Wild, a cybersecurity company.
At the same time, the system would need to be low friction and quick. There’s no shortage of technical tools today, especially from the field of cryptography, that can effectively bind a digital identity to a transaction, Ramzan said. “Fifteen to 20 years ago, this conversation would have been a non-starter,” he added.
There have been some successes with programs like this across the globe, according to Ramzan. India’s Aadhaar system is an example of a digital identity framework at a national scale. It enables most of the population to authenticate transactions via mobile devices, and it’s integrated across both public and private services. Estonia has an e-ID system that allows citizens to do everything from banking to voting online. Singapore and the UAE have also implemented strong national identity programs tied to mobile infrastructure and digital services. “While these systems differ in how they handle issues like privacy, they all share a key trait: centralized government leadership that drove standardization and adoption,” Ramzan said.
Centralized personal data is a big target for cybercriminals
While a centralized system solves one challenge, the storage of personally identifiable information and biometrics data is a security risk, said David Mattei, a strategic advisor in the fraud and AML practice at Datos Insights, which works with financial services, insurance and retail technology companies.
Notably, there have been reports of data stolen from India’s Aadhaar system. And last year, El Salvador’s government had the personal data of 80% of its citizens stolen from a centralized, government-managed citizen identity system. “A lot of security experts do not advocate having a centralized security system because it’s kind of like the pot at the end of the rainbow that every fraudster is trying to get his hands on,” Mattei said.
In the U.S., there’s a long-standing preference for decentralized systems for identity. On mobile devices, Face ID and Fingerprint ID are done not by centralizing all of that data in one spot at Apple or Google, but by storing the data in a secure module on each mobile device. “This makes it much harder, if not impossible, for fraudsters to steal that data en masse,” Mattei said.
Larry Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., at the Berlin Global Dialogue in Berlin, Germany, on Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Digital driver’s licenses offer a cautionary tale
It would take a significant coordinated effort to come up with a national identity system used for identity verification.
Identity systems in the U.S. today are fragmented, Ramzan said, giving the example of state departments of motor vehicles. “To move forward, we will either need a cohesive national strategy or a way to better coordinate identity across the state and federal levels,” he said.
That’s not an easy task. Take, for example, the effort many states are making to adopt digital driver’s licenses. About a quarter of states today, including Utah, Maryland, Virginia and New York, issue mobile driver’s licenses, according to mDLConnection, an online resource from the Secure Technology Alliance. Other states have pilot programs in effect, have enacted legislation or are studying the issue. But this undertaking is quite ambitious and has been underway for several years.
To implement a national identity verification system would be a “massive undertaking and would require just about every company that does business online to adopt a government standard for identity verification and authentication,” Mattei said.
Competitive forces are another issue to contend with. “There is an ecosystem of vendors who offer identity verification and authentication solutions that would not want a centralized system for fear of going out of business,” Mattei said.
There are also significant data privacy hurdles to overcome. States and the federal government would need to coordinate to resolve governance issues, and this might prompt “big brother” concerns about the extent to which the federal government could monitor the activities of its citizens.
Many people have “a bit of an allergic reaction” when anything resembling a national ID comes up, Ramzan said.
Fink has been pushing the SEC to look at issue
The idea is not a brand new one for Fink. At Davos earlier this year, he told CNBC that he wanted the SEC “to rapidly expand the tokenization of stocks and bonds.”
There’s BlackRock self-interest at work, and potential cost savings for the firm and many others, which Fink has spoken about. In recent years, BlackRock has been dragged into political battles, and lawsuits, over its voting of a massive amount of shares held in its funds on ESG issues. “We’d never have to vote on a proxy vote anymore,” Fink told CNBC at Davos, referring to “the tax on BlackRock.”
“Every owner would be notified of a vote,” he said, adding that it would bring down the cost of ownership of stocks and bonds.
It is clear from Fink’s decision to give this issue prominent placement in his annual letter — even if it came in third in the order of issues he covered behind both the politics of protectionism and the growing role of private markets — that he isn’t letting up. And what’s needed to make this a reality, he contends, is a new digital identity verification system. The letter is short on details, and BlackRock declined to elaborate, but, at least on the surface, the solution for Fink is clear. “If we’re serious about building an efficient and accessible financial system, championing tokenization alone won’t suffice. We must solve digital verification, too,” he wrote.
Blockchain continues to evolve and people are learning to understand it better. Accordingly, there are initiatives underway to think about how the U.S. can achieve a broad-based identity verification system, Hulka said. There are technical ways to do it, but finding the right way that works for the country is more of a challenge since it has to be interoperable. “The goal is to get to a point where there is one way to verify identity across multiple services,” she said.
Eventually, there will be a tipping point for the financial services industry where it becomes a business imperative, Hulka said. “The question is when, of course.”
Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal, Palantir Technologies, and Founders Fund, holds hundred dollar bills as he speaks during the Bitcoin 2022 Conference at Miami Beach Convention Center on April 7, 2022 in Miami, Florida.
Marco Bello | Getty Images
Founders Fund, the venture capital firm run by billionaire Peter Thiel, has closed a $4.6 billion late-stage venture fund, according to a Friday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The fund, Founders Fund Growth III, includes capital from 270 investors, the filing said. Thiel, Napoleon Ta and Trae Stephens are the three people named as directors. A substantial amount of the capital was provided by the firm’s general partners, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Axios reported in December that Founders Fund was raising about $3 billion for the fund. The firm ended up raising more than that amount from outside investors as part of the total $4.6 billion pool, said the person, who asked not to be named because the details are confidential.
A Founders Fund spokesperson declined to comment.
Thiel, best known for co-founding PayPal before putting the first outside money in Facebook and for funding defense software vendor Palantir, started Founders Fund in 2005. In addition to Palantir, the firm’s top investments include Airbnb, Stripe, Affirm and Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
Founders Fund is also a key investor in Anduril, the defense tech company started by Palmer Luckey. CNBC reported in February that Anduril is in talks to raise funding at a $28 billion valuation.
Hefty amounts of private capital are likely to be needed for the foreseeable future as the IPO market remains virtually dormant. It was also dealt a significant blow last week after President Donald Trump’s announcement of widespread tariffs roiled tech stocks. Companies including Klarna, StubHub and Chime delayed their plans to go public as the Nasdaq sank.
President Trump walked back some of the tariffs this week, announcing a 90-day pause for most new tariffs, excluding those imposed on China, while the administration negotiates with other countries. But the uncertainty of where levies will end up is a troubling recipe for risky bets like tech IPOs.
SpaceX, Stripe and Anduril are among the most high-profile venture-backed companies that are still private. Having access to a large pool of growth capital allows Founders Fund to continue investing in follow-on rounds that are off limits to many traditional venture firms.
Thiel was a major Trump supporter during the 2016 campaign, but later had a falling out with the president and was largely on the sidelines in 2024 even as many of his tech peers rallied behind the Republican leader.
In June, Thiel said that even though he wasn’t providing money to the campaign for Trump, who was the Republican presumptive nominee at the time, he’d vote for him over Joe Biden, who had yet to drop out of the race and endorse Kamala Harris.
“If you hold a gun to my head, I’ll vote for Trump,” Thiel said in an interview on stage at the Aspen Ideas Festival. “I’m not going to give any money to his super PAC.”
From left, U.S. President Donald Trump, Senator Dave McCormick, his wife Dina Powell McCormick and Elon Musk watch the men’s NCAA wrestling competition at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on March 22, 2025.
Brendan Smialowski | Afp | Getty Images
Meta on Friday announced that it was expanding its board of directors with two new members, including Dina Powell McCormick, a part of President Donald Trump’s first administration.
Powell McCormick served as a deputy national security advisor to Trump from 2017 to 2018. She is also married to Sen. Dave McCormick, a Republican from Pennsylvania who took office in January.
“He’s a good man,” Trump said of McCormick in an endorsement last year, according to the Associated Press. Powell McCormick and her husband were photographed in March beside Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, a current advisor to the president, at a wrestling championship match in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Additionally, Powell McCormick was assistant Secretary of State under Condoleezza Rice in President George W. Bush’s administration.
Besides her political background, Powell McCormick is vice chair, president and head of global client services at BDT & MSD Partners. That company was founded in 2023 when the merchant bank BDT combined with Michael Dell’s investment firm MSD. Powell McCormick arrived at the firm after 16 years at Goldman Sachs, where she had been a partner.
Her appointment represents another sign of Meta’s alignment with Republicans following Trump’s return to the White House.
In January, the company announced a shift away from fact-checking and said it was bringing Trump’s friend Dana White, CEO of Ultimate Fighting Championship, onto the board. The changes follow Trump dubbing the company behind Facebook and Instagram “the enemy of the people” on CNBC last year.
Also on Friday, Meta said Patrick Collison, co-founder and CEO of payments startup Stripe, was also elected to the board. Stripe was valued at $65 billion in a tender offer last year.
“Patrick and Dina bring a lot of experience supporting businesses and entrepreneurs to our board,” Meta co-founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in a statement.
Zuckerberg visited the White House last week, after attending Trump’s inauguration in Washington in January. Politico last week reported that the Meto CEO paid $23 million in cash for a mansion in the nation’s capital.
Powell McCormick and Collison officially become directors on April 15, Meta said.