Striking Writers Guild of America (WGA) members walk the picket line in front of Netflix offices as SAG-AFTRA union announced it had agreed to a ‘last-minute request’ by the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers for federal mediation, but it refused to again extend its existing labor contract past the 11:59 p.m. Wednesday negotiating deadline, in Los Angeles, California, July 12, 2023.
Mike Blake | Reuters
Traditional TV is dying. Ad revenue is soft. Streaming isn’t profitable. And Hollywood is practically shut down as the actors and writers unions settle in for what is shaping up to be a long and bitter work stoppage.
All of this turmoil will be on investors’ minds as the media industry kicks off its earnings season this week, with Netflix up firston Wednesday.
Netflix, with a new advertising model and push to stop password sharing, looks the best positioned compared to legacy media giants. Last week, for instance, Disney CEO Bob Iger extended his contract through 2026, telling the market he needed more time at the Mouse House to address the challenges before him. At the top of the list is contending with Disney’s TV networks, as that part of the business appears to be in a worse state than Iger had imagined. “They may not be core to Disney,” he said.
“I think Bob Iger’s comments were a warning about the quarter. I think they are very worrying for the sector,” said analyst Michael Nathanson of SVB MoffettNathanson following Iger’s interview with CNBC’s David Faber on Thursday.
Although the soft advertising market has been weighing on the industry for some quarters now, the recent introduction of a cheaper, ad-supported option for services like Netflix and Disney+ will likely be one bright spot as one of the few areas of growth and concentration this quarter, Nathanson said.
Iger has talked at length in recent investor calls and Thursday’s interview about how advertising is part of the plan to bring Disney+ to profitability. Others, including Netflix, have echoed the same sentiment.
Netflix will report earnings after the close Wednesday. Wall Street will be keen to hear more details about the rollout of its password sharing crackdown in the U.S. and state of its newly launched ad-supported option. The company’s stock is up nearly 50% this year, after a correction in 2022 that followed its first subscriber loss in a decade
Investor focus will also be on legacy media companies like Paramount Global, Comcast Corp. and Warner Bros. Discovery, which each have significant portfolios of pay-TV networks, following Iger’s comments that traditional TV “may not be core” to the company and all options, including a sale, were on the table. These companies and Disney will report earnings in the weeks ahead.
Strike woes
Scene from “Squid Game” by Netflix
Source: Netflix
Just a week ahead of the earnings kickoff, members of The Screen Actors Guild – American Federation of Television and Radio Artists joined the more than 11,000 already-striking film and television writers on the picket line.
The strike – a result of the failed negotiations with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers – brings the industry to an immediate halt. It’s the first dual strike of this kind since 1960.
The labor fight blew up just as the industry has moved away from streaming growth at all costs. Media companies saw a boost in subscribers – and stock prices – earlier in the pandemic, investing billions in new content. But growth has since stagnated, resulting in budget cuts and layoffs.
“The strike happening suggests this is a sector in tremendous turmoil,” said Mark Boidman, head of media and entertainment investment banking at Solomon Partners. He noted shareholders, particularly hedge funds and institutional investors, have been “very frustrated” with media companies.
Iger told CNBC last week the stoppage couldn’t occur at a worse time, noting “disruptive forces on this business and all the challenges that we’re facing,” on top of the industry still recovering from the pandemic.
These are the first strikes of their kind during the streaming era. The last writers strike occurred in 2007 and 2008, which went on for about 14 weeks and gave rise to unscripted, reality TV. Hollywood writers have already been on strike since early May of this year.
Depending on the longevity of the strike, fresh film and TV content could dry up and leave streaming platforms and TV networks – other than library content, live sports and news – bare.
For Netflix, the strikes may have a lesser effect, at least in the near-term, Insider Intelligence analyst Ross Benes said. Content made outside the U.S. isn’t affected by the strike — an area where Netflix has heavily invested.
“Netflix is poised to do better than most because they produce shows so well in advance. And if push comes to shove, they can rely on international shows, of which they have so many,” said Benes. “Netflix is the antagonist in the eyes of strikes because of how it changed the economics of what writers get paid.”
Traditional TV doom
The decline of pay-TV subscribers, which has ramped up in recent quarters, should continue to accelerate as consumers increasingly shift toward streaming.
Yet, despite the rampant decline, many networks remain cash cows, and they also supply content to other parts of the business — particularly streaming.
For pay-TV distributors, hiking the price of cable bundles has been a method of staying profitable. But, according to a recent report from MoffettNathanson, “the quantity of subscribers is falling far too fast for pricing to continue to offset.”
Iger, who began his career in network TV, told CNBC last week that while he already had a “very pessimistic” view of traditional TV before his return in November, he has since found it’s even worse than he expected. The executivesaid Disney is assessing its network portfolio, which includes broadcaster ABC and cable channels like FX, indicating a sale could be on the table.
Paramount is currently considering a sale of a majority stake in its cable-TV network BET. In recent years Comcast’s NBCUniversal has shuttered networks like NBC Sports and combined sports programming on other channels like USA Network.
“The networks are a dwindling business, and Wall Street doesn’t like dwindling businesses,” said Nathanson. “But for some companies, there’s no way around it.”
Making matters worse, the weak advertising market has been a source of pain, particularly for traditional TV. It weighed on the earnings of Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery in recent quarters, each of which have big portfolios of cable networks.
Advertising pricing growth, which has long offset audience declines, is a key source of concern, according to MoffettNathanson’s recent report. The firm noted that this could be the first non-recessionary year that advertising upfronts don’t produce increases in TV pricing, especially as ad-supported streaming hits the market and zaps up inventory.
Streamers’ introduction of cheaper, ad-supported tiers will be a hot topic once again this quarter, especially after Netflix and Disney+ announced their platforms late last year.
“The soft advertising market affects everyone, but I don’t think Netflix is as affected as the TV companies or other established advertising streamers,” said Benes. He noted while Netflix is the most established streamer, its ad tier is new and has plenty of room for growth.
Advertising is now considered an important mechanism in platforms’ broader efforts to reach profitability.
“It’s not a coincidence that Netflix suddenly became judicious about freeloaders while pushing a cheaper tier that has advertising,” said Benes, referring to Netflix’s crackdown on password sharing. “That’s pretty common in the industry. Hulu’s ad plan gets more revenue per user than the plan without advertising.”
Are more mergers coming?
Last week’s ruling from a federal judge that Microsoft’s $68.7 billion acquisition of game publisher Activision Blizzard should move forward serves as a rare piece of good news for the media industry. It’s a signal that significant consolidation can proceed even if there’s temporary regulatory interference.
Although the Federal Trade Commission appealed the ruling, bankers took it as a win for dealmaking during a slow period for megadeals.
“This was a nice win for bankers to go into board rooms and say we’re not in an environment where really attractive M&A is going to be shot down by regulators. It’s encouraging,” said Solomon Partners’ Boidman.
As media giants struggle and shareholders grow frustrated, the judge’s ruling could fuel more deals as “a lot of these CEOs are on the defensive,” Boidman added.
Regulatory roadblocks have been prevalent beyond the Microsoft deal. A federal judge shut down book publisher Penguin Random House’s proposed purchase of Paramount’s Simon & Schuster last year. Broadcast station owner Tegna scrapped its sale to Standard General this year due to regulatory pushback.
“The fact that we are so focused on the Activision-Microsoft deal is indicative of a reality that dealmaking is going to be an enormous tool going forward to solidify market position and jump your company inorganically in ways you couldn’t do yourself,” said Jason Anderson, CEO of Quire, a boutique investment bank.
These CEOs won’t just do a deal to do a deal. From this point forward, it will take a higher bar to consolidate.
Peter Liguori
former Tribune Media CEO
Anderson noted bankers are always thinking about regulatory pushback, however, and it shouldn’t necessarily be the reason deals don’t come together.
Warner Bros. and Discovery merged in 2022, ballooning the combined company’s portfolio of cable networks and bringing together its streaming platforms. Recently, the company relaunched its flagship service as Max, merging content from Discovery+ and HBO Max. Amazonbought MGM the same year.
Other megadeals occurred before that, too. Comcast acquired U.K. broadcaster Sky in 2018. The next year, Disney paid $71 billion for Fox Corp.’s entertainment assets – which gave Disney “The Simpsons” and a controlling stake in Hulu, but makes up a small portion of its TV properties.
“The Simpsons”: Homer and Marge
Getty / FOX
“The Street and prognosticators forget that Comcast and Sky, Disney and Fox, Warner and Discovery —happened just a few years ago. But the industry talks as if these deals happened in BC not AD times,” said Peter Liguori, the former CEO of Tribune Media who’s a board member at TV measurement firm VideoAmp.
Consolidation is likely to continue once companies are finished working through these past mergers and get past lingering effects of the pandemic, such as increased spending to gain subscribers, he said. “These CEOs won’t just do a deal to do a deal. From this point forward, it will take a higher bar to consolidate.”
Still, with the rise of streaming and its lack of profitability and bleeding of pay-TV customers, more consolidation could be on the way, no matter what.
Whether M&A helps push these companies forward, however, is another question.
“My kneejerk reaction to the Activision-Microsoft ruling was there’s going to be more M&A if the FTC is going to be defanged,” Nathanson said. “But truth be told, Netflix built its business with licensing content and not having to buy an asset. I’m not really sure the big transactions to buy studios have worked out.”
–CNBC’s Alex Sherman contributed to this article.
Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.
Elon Musk’s X on Monday denied allegations made by French authorities as part of a criminal investigation into alleged data tampering, adding that it would not submit to the prosecutor’s demand to hand over data.
X’s global government affairs account said the French investigation, which ramped up this month, is “politically-motivated” and designed to “restrict free speech.”
“French authorities have launched a politically-motivated criminal investigation into X over the alleged manipulation of its algorithm and alleged “fraudulent data extraction,” X said in a post on the social media platform. “X categorically denies these allegations.”
French prosecutors started an investigation in January over allegations that the company’s algorithm was being used for the purposes of foreign interference. The probe began after two complaints — one from a French member of parliament and another from a senior official at a public institution.
This month, the investigation was handed over to a key unit of France’s national police. Prosecutors said the investigation would focus on investigating offences of tampering with automated data systems as well as the fraudulent extraction of data from these systems.
“French authorities have requested access to X’s recommendation algorithm and real-time data about all user posts on the platform in order for several ‘experts’ to analyze the data and purportedly ‘uncover the truth’ about the operation of the X platform,” X said.
Musk’s social media platform also said it, “remains in the dark as to the specific allegations made” against it.
“However, based on what we know so far, X believes that this investigation is distorting French law in order to serve a political agenda and, ultimately, restrict free speech,” X said.
“For these reasons, X has not acceded to the French authorities’ demands, as we have a legal right to do. This is not a decision that X takes lightly. However, in this case, the facts speak for themselves.”
CNBC has reached out to the Paris prosecutor’s office for comment.
X took fire at two specific individuals. The company claimed the two “experts” who will review X’s algorithm are David Chavalarias, director of the Paris Complex Systems Institute (ISC-PIF) and Maziyar Panahi, an AI platform leader at ISC-PIF.
X noted Chavalarias runs a campaign called “Escape X” which encourages users to leave the social media platform, and said Panahi “has previously participated in research projects with David Chavalarias that demonstrate open hostility towards X.” Both researchers have indeed been named on a research paper related to X.
“The involvement of these individuals raises serious concerns about the impartiality, fairness, and political motivations of the investigation, to put it charitably. A predetermined outcome is not a fair one,” X said.
CNBC has reached out to both Chavalarias and Panahi, and has yet to receive a comment on X’s statement.
Annealed neodymium iron boron magnets sit in a barrel at a Neo Material Technologies Inc. factory in Tianjin, China on June 11, 2010.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
China’s exports of rare-earth magnets to the United States in June surged more than seven times from the prior month, as American firms clamor to get hold of the critical elements following a preliminary Sino-U.S. trade deal.
In April, Beijing placed restrictions on several critical magnets, used in advanced tech such as electric vehicles, wind turbines and MRI machines, requiring firms to receive licenses for export. The move was seen as retaliation against U.S. President Donald Trump’s steep tariffs on China.
Beijing has a stranglehold on the production of rare-earth magnets, with an estimated 90% of the market, as well as a similar hold on the refining of rare-earth elements, which are used to make magnets.
The U.S. received about 353 metric tons of rare-earth permanent magnets in June, up 660% from the previous month, data released by China’s General Administration of Customs showed, though the exports were about half that from June last year.
The U.S. was the second-largest destination for China’s rare-earth magnets, behind Germany, as it relies heavily on their imports for its large manufacturing sector, particularly automotive, electronics and renewable energy.
In total, China exported 3,188 metric tons of rare earth permanent magnets globally last month, up nearly 160% from May, but 38% lower compared with the same period last year.
The growth in exports came after Washington and Beijing agreed last month on a trade framework that included easing controls on Chinese rare-earth exports as well as a rollback of some American tech restrictions for shipments to China.
AI behemoth Nvidia said last week it was planning to resume shipments of its H20 AI chips to China, after the exports were restricted in April. Last month, controls on American AI chip software companies’ business in China had also been rolled back.
Chinese rare-earth magnet producers started announcing the approval of export licenses last month.
If exports continue to increase, it will be of great benefit to companies that have been suffering from shortages of magnets due to the lengthy time required to secure export licenses. For example, several European auto-parts suppliers were forced to halt production in recent months.
The magnet shortages had also hit emerging industries such as humanoid robotics. In April, Elon Musk said production of Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robots had been disrupted.
China’s controls on its rare-earths sector have prompted some global governments to reexamine their rare-earth supply chains and search for ways to support domestic mining of the minerals.
However, experts say that setting up alternatives to China’s rare-earth magnet supply chain could take years, as it requires an intricate process of rare-earth element refining and separation.
“The separation process is quite complex, and China has a lot of advantages in this after putting in decades of research into the processes,” Yue Wang, a senior consultant of rare earths at Wood Mackenzie, told CNBC last month.
One way that the U.S. has been trying to compensate for lack of rare-earth magnets is through increased recycling. Apple and miner MP Materialsannounced a $500 million deal last week for the development of a recycling facility that will reinforce the iPhone maker’s U.S. magnet supply chain.
Peter Alexander from financial consultancy Z-ben Advisors said that Washington’s latest concessions on tech restrictions were a reflection of just how much leverage China has in its trade relationship with the United States, speaking on CNBC’s “China Connection” on Monday.
The Huawei booth at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, 2025.
Arjun Kharpal | CNBC
Despite being beaten down by years of U.S. trade restrictions, China’s telecom giant Huawei has quietly emerged as one of the country’s fiercest competitors across the entire AI landscape.
Not only does the Shenzhen-based firm appear to represent Beijing’s answer to American AI chip darling Nvidia, but it has also been an early adopter of monetizing artificial intelligence models in industrial applications.
“Huawei has been forced to shift and expand its core business focus over the past decade… due to a variety of external pressures on the company,” said Paul Triolo, partner and senior vice president for China at advisory firm DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group.
This expansion has seen the company get involved in everything from smart cars and operating systems to the technologies needed for the AI boom, such as advanced semiconductors, data centers, chips and large language models.
“No other technology company has been able to be competent in so many different sectors with high levels of complexity and barriers to entry,” Triolo said.
This year, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has become increasingly vocal in calling Huawei “one of the most formidable technology companies in the world.” He has also warned that Huawei will replace Nvidia in China if Washington continues to restrict U.S. chip firms’ exports to the Asian country.
Nvidia surpassed $4 trillion in market capitalization last week to become the world’s most valuable company. Its cutting-edge processors and a related “CUDA” computing system remain the industry standard for training generative AI models and applications.
But that moat may be narrowing, as Huawei proves that it not only does it all, it does it well. While challenging American AI stalwarts like Nvidia is a tall order, the company’s history shows why it can’t be counted out.
Telephone switches to national champion
Huawei, which now employs more than 208,000 people across over 170 markets, came from humble beginnings. Founded by ambitious entrepreneur Ren Zhengfei in 1987 out of an apartment in Shenzhen, the firm started as a small telephone switch distributor.
As it grew into a telecoms player, it gained traction by targeting less developed markets such as Africa, the Middle East, Russia and South America, before eventually expanding to places like Europe.
By 2019, Huawei would be well-positioned to capitalize on the global 5G rollout, becoming a leader in the market. Around this time, it had also blossomed into one of the world’s largest smartphone manufacturers and was even designing smartphone chips through its chip design subsidiary, HiSilicon.
But Huawei’s success also attracted increasing scrutiny from governments outside China, particularly the U.S., which has frequently accused Huawei’s technology of posing a national security threat. The Chinese company has refuted such risks.
The export controls have ironically pushed Huawei into the arms of the Chinese government in a way that CEO Ren Zhengfei always resisted.
Paul Triolo
partner and senior vice president for China at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group
Huawei’s business suffered a major setback in 2019 when it was placed on a U.S. trade blacklist, preventing American companies from doing business with it.
As the impact of the sanctions kicked in, Huawei’s consumer business – once the company’s largest by revenue – halved to about $34 billion in 2021 from the year before.
The company still managed a breakthrough on AI chips, and pressed ahead despite additional U.S. restrictions in 2020 that cut the company off from chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. A year earlier, Huawei officially launched its Ascend 910 AI processing chip as part of a strategy to build a “full-stack, all-scenario AI portfolio” and to become a provider of AI computing power.
But the U.S. targeting of Huawei also had the effect of turning the company into a martyr-like figure in China, building upon attention it received in 2018 when Meng Wanzhou, Huawei’s CFO and daughter of Ren, was arrested in Canada for alleged violations of Iran sanctions.
As the U.S.-China tech war continued to expand and broad advanced chip restrictions were placed on China, Huawei was an obvious choice to become a national champion in the race, with more impetus and state backing for its AI plans.
“The export controls have ironically pushed Huawei into the arms of the Chinese government in a way that CEO Ren Zhengfei always resisted,” Triolo said. In this way, the restrictions also became “the steroids” for Huawei’s AI hardware and software stack.
The comeback
After another year of declining sales in the consumer segment, the unit started to turn around in 2023 with the release of a smartphone that analysts said contained an advanced chip made in China.
The 5G chip came as a shock to many in the U.S., who didn’t expect Huawei to reach that level of advancement so quickly without TSMC. Instead, Huawei was reportedly working with Chinese chipmaker SMIC, a company that has also been blacklisted by the U.S.
While semiconductor analysts said the scale that Huawei and SMIC could produce these chips was severely limited, Huawei nonetheless had proved it was back in the advanced chip game.
It was also around this time that reports began surfacing about Huawei’s new AI processor chip, the Ascend 910B, with the company looking to seize upon gaps left by export controls on Nvidia’s most advanced chips. Mass production of the next-generation 910C is reportedly already on the way.
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To fill the void left by Nvidia, Huawei “has been making big strides in replicating the performance of high-end GPUs using combinations of lower chips,” said Jeffrey Towson, managing partner at TechMoat Consulting.
In April, Huawei unveiled its “AI CloudMatrix 384”, a system that links 384 Ascend 910C chips in a cluster within data centers. Analysts have said CloudMatrix is able to outperform Nvidia’s system, the GB200 NVL72, on some metrics.
Huawei isn’t just catching up, “it’s redefining how AI infrastructure works,” Forrester analysts said in a report last month about CloudMatrix.
“Winning the AI race isn’t just about faster chips. It also includes delivering the tools developers need to build and deploy large-scale models,” Forrester’s report said, though authors noted that Huawei’s products are still not integrated enough with other commonly used tools for developers to switch over quickly from Nvidia.
The ‘Ascend Ecosystem Strategy’
While Huawei’s goal to surpass Nvidia is seen as a key development in China and the U.S.’s race for AI, it’s important to note that chips represent just one building block of Huawei’s broader AI plans.
Huawei now has its hands throughout the artificial intelligence value chain, from chips to computing, to AI models and AI applications. These different AI business avenues also leverage other areas of the company’s vast technology empire.
In fact, the company’s “ICT Infrastructure” business — which includes 5.5G cellular network deployment and AI systems for industrial use — became the company’s largest revenue driver at 362 billion yuan in 2023.
The company has been deploying its Ascend AI chips and AI CloudMatrix 384 at its growing portfolio of AI data centers, which are operated by its cloud computing unit, Huawei Cloud, established in 2017 to compete with the likes of Amazon Web Services and Oracle.
These data centers, in turn, have provided the training capabilities and computing power used by Huawei’s suite of AI models under its Pangu series.
Unlike other general-purpose AI models like OpenAI’s GPT-4 or Google’s Gemini Ultra 1.0, Huawei’s Pangu model is designed to support more industry-specific applications across the medical, finance, government, industrial and automotive sectors. Pangu has already been applied in more than 20 industries over the last year, the company said last month.
Rolling out such AI applications often involves having Huawei tech staff working for months at the project site, even if it’s in a remote coal mine, Jack Chen, vice president of the marketing department for Huawei’s oil, gas and mining business unit, which provides digital and intelligent solutions to transform these industries, told CNBC.
And it’s not limited to China. The technology can “be replicated on a large scale in Central Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific,” Chen said.
Huawei has also open-sourced the Pangu models, in a move it said would help it expand overseas and further its “Ascend ecosystem strategy,” which refers to its AI products built around its Ascend chips.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday, Patrick Moorhead of Moor Insights & Strategy said he expected Huawei to push Ascend in countries part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative — an investment and development project aimed at emerging markets.
Over a period of five to 10 years, the company could begin to build serious market share in these countries, in the same way it once did with its telecommunications business, he added.