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SHOHEI OHTANI IS both text and subtext, the brightest light in the firmament and the candle flicker on the wall. He is right there in front of us, obvious in all his brilliance, yet slightly out of reach, his present as clear as his future is uncertain.

This current edition of “Season of Ohtani” feels like the height of something, like a great artist’s signature piece or a writer’s seminal work. Every oversaturated box score speaks to something previously unattainable, an unrepeatable (for now) shift of the game’s tectonics. It feels as if it could be the end of something, or at least a gateway to something completely different.

Ohtani’s pending free agency hovers above the Angels’ season, following them everywhere. When manager Phil Nevin is asked whether he believes his team can compete with the Astros and Rangers in the American League West, he is being asked whether the Angels can keep Ohtani. When general manager Perry Minasian is asked how many games per month his team needs to win to remain in contention, or whether there is a magical number of losses that will denote non-contention, he is being asked whether the Angels can keep Ohtani. When Angels players are asked whether they feel momentum flowing or ebbing or remaining the same, they are being asked whether the Angels can keep Ohtani.

The only one who is not asked whether the Angels can keep Ohtani is Ohtani.

I set out to contextualize this moment, whatever it is now and whatever it might become: Ohtani on the brink of free agency, and the Angels desperately trying to play well enough to win him over. The idea was to capture the experience beginning with one Ohtani start on the mound and finishing with the next; in this case, seven otherwise random games in June, three against the Astros, three against the Cubs and one against the Mariners. The Angels won five of seven, the last five in a row. Ohtani was 11-of-28 with two homers and six RBIs, and he pitched 11 innings over two starts, striking out 12 and allowing seven earned runs. It was a decent but understated start to what would become one of the best months by an individual player in baseball history.

To watch Ohtani over an extended period of time is to be subsumed into his world. There is always a small, revelatory moment, far removed from the home runs and the 102 mph fastballs, that feels unique to Ohtani. In the sixth inning of Ohtani’s June 2 start against the Astros, Kyle Tucker rolled over on a pitch and tapped it to first, about 40 feet from home plate and 6 feet off the foul line. Ohtani ran over and picked it up and stood in the baseline, facing Tucker, who had stopped as Ohtani tried to decide the most respectful way to record the out. They stared at each other for a second or two before Tucker extended his right arm and presented it to Ohtani, as if to say, “Here, this is how this ends.”

I found myself constantly looking at my scorecard to see when he would come to bat again, and watching him and translator/friend/coach/consigliere Ippei Mizuhara gesticulate over a tablet in the dugout, and tracking the time it takes him to regroup after an at-bat and before he heads to the mound. (The umpires, understanding the moment, have granted him some between-inning leniency.) Every at-bat was accompanied by the collective lean of 30,000 people, suddenly engaged. There were times I wished — as I’m sure Nevin does — that Ohtani could expand his oeuvre and occupy two spots in the batting order at once.

Ohtani’s excellence is such a feature of the landscape that it can be difficult to believe it wasn’t always like this. During his first spring training with the Angels, in March 2018, I sat in the stands in Tempe, Arizona, watching him bounce fastballs and hang breaking balls against the Tijuana Toros, a Mexican League team in town for a game so far off the radar they played it in the morning and didn’t sell tickets. Ohtani was terrible — wild, rhythmless, confused. He threw very few strikes, and the ones he threw got hit hard. I listened as people told me the American baseballs were too slick and the mounds too hard, and I listened as his high school coach, Hiroshi Sasaki, told me that Ohtani needed two years of struggle to reach his potential. “Right now,” Sasaki said, “Shohei is crouched. He must go down before he rises up.” I nodded and wrote it down, not sure I believed it.

THE PROBLEM WITH writing about Ohtani is that in between the writing and the reading he does something that surpasses everything else. While writing this, I watched him: beat the White Sox by hitting two home runs while striking out 10 and giving up just one run in 6⅓ innings; and hit home runs at what has to be called an alarming rate, including a 493-footer that, even through the television, sounded like a gunshot in the woods. He hit 15 home runs in June and amassed a 286 OPS+ (league average: 100). He also pitched 30⅓ innings with a 3.26 ERA. It has reached the point where it’s a surprise whenever he doesn’t do something ridiculous.

A random Sunday afternoon, two outs in the ninth, nobody on, Angels up a couple of runs, Ohtani working on an 0-for-3 afternoon, and he cracks one 454 feet; a Monday night in Texas, 459 into the second deck in left-center, to a place other left-handed hitters don’t even know exists; two nights later, 453 to the same spot.

(And the ancillary problem of assessing the Angels’ playoff chances vis-à-vis Ohtani’s future is the franchise’s inability to get out of its own way. Even the best of times — winning eight of nine from early to mid-June to grab ahold of a theoretical wild-card spot — are just a grim reminder of what’s ahead: Mike Trout’s broken hamate bone; Anthony Rendon’s long-running series of injuries; Ohtani’s cracked fingernail/blister combo that ended his subpar July 4 start and kept him off the mound at the All-Star Game. They win eight of nine, they lose nine of 10. Such are the Angels.)

Discerning the meaning of something demands some sort of comparison, or at least a relevant reference point. Ohtani, having driven past — and then backed over — the Babe Ruth comparisons, has left us to our own devices. Academics who study prodigies talk about the constant push for more and the compulsion to move on from mastering one task to pursuing another. It wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if we learned Ohtani was going to spend an offseason working on switch-hitting or hitting .400 or throwing a knuckleball.

“Every day he wakes up thinking about how he can be the best baseball player on the planet,” Nevin says. “Every movement he makes is toward that purpose. Not just at the field but how he eats, how much he sleeps, how he organizes his day. He does whatever it takes to get there.”

Nevin is asked about Ohtani so often he long ago ran out of descriptions, but he consciously takes a few minutes every day to appreciate what he’s experiencing. “It feels like every day I come into the press room and someone says, ‘Sho set this record today. Nobody’s ever done this, or that,'” he says. “I’ve found I need to step back and not take it for granted.”

BY NOW IT’S safe to assume our prying eyes will never be allowed access to Ohtani’s world, no matter how boring and rote we presume it to be. He is content to narcotize the masses with uniquely unilluminating sentences presented with unrelenting politeness.

His teammates look upon him with a mixture of awe and curiosity. (“When a guy does what he does,” pitcher Tucker Davidson says, “it’s OK to be in awe.”) Strangely, the guys who share a clubhouse with Ohtani don’t know a lot more about him than the rest of us. They discuss what might happen at the trade deadline or where he might be next year, but reliever Aaron Loup says, “We haven’t asked him about it. Definitely not. But it’s a topic. You can’t avoid it.” They don’t know his daily routine — “It’s a great question,” reliever Chris Devenski says, “I’d like to know his secrets, too” — despite marveling at its results. Nevin goes on and on about Ohtani’s discipline and preparation, but when I asked him whether he knows the day-to-day specifics of how Ohtani compartmentalizes his two crafts, Nevin says, “I don’t. I don’t know what he’s doing every day at the ballpark. I leave that to him.”

But who Ohtani is has always been secondary to what he does, and what he does is so cosmic in a baseball sense — and who he is, from all available evidence, so comparatively boring — that it’s probably enough. Openness is the enemy of myth, and nobody ever crafted a legend without mystery.

He has strained the limits of language. Historic and unprecedented, just to get those two out of the way early. But how many ways can disbelief be expressed? How many superlatives strung together does it take to equal utter meaninglessness?

Every season Ohtani grows bigger, his shoulders now as wide as the batter’s box, as if in response to the expectations. He has grown more demonstrative, occasionally expressing disagreement with umpires’ calls and routinely celebrating his achievements more openly. His purchase of the celebratory kabuto helmet he and his teammates wear while prancing through the dugout after home runs would have been unthinkable even four years ago.

And maybe some measure of distance is not just preferable but necessary. It’s hard to imagine the chaos his life would become with just the merest hint of controversy. He must be left alone to do what cannot be done.

“He doesn’t share too much, to be honest with you,” Loup says. “When it comes to the work side and preparation, he definitely has his own program. I’m sure the weight he’s got on his shoulders is beyond everyone else’s.”

A Japanese journalist standing near the third-base dugout in Anaheim filming Ohtani’s center-field plyo-ball workout three hours before a game tells me, “He’s a megastar. We’ve grown numb to not getting anything from him. We’ve accepted it.” Mizuhara stands two steps behind Ohtani with a radar gun. Several Japanese journalists film while others take notes. They all wear the same languid looks; never before has someone so active been responsible for so much lethargy. The appetite for Ohtani content in Japan is prodigious; video of the plyo-ball routine shot from 200 feet away will be seen throughout the country. The beast must be fed; the beast is insatiable.

“None of us can imagine what it’s like for him,” says Angels rookie shortstop Zach Neto. “You go out and see all the media watching and filming him just throwing plyo balls against the wall. Like, every time. It’s hard to imagine being in that kind of spotlight.”

Ohtani’s career is historic in so many ways, and soon that will include the amount of wild conjecture that will accompany his free agency this offseason. With the trade deadline at the end of July, every rumor is already retailed to the masses. Another Japanese reporter holds out his phone and translates a social media message detailing how the New York Mets have enlisted fans to spread disinformation about Ohtani as a means of decreasing interest from other MLB teams, thereby increasing the Mets’ chances of signing him. It’s preposterous, of course, but since it’s 2023 and since it’s Ohtani, the reporter asks around to see whether anybody thinks it could be true.

AT 3:45 P.M., ROUGHLY three hours before Ohtani is to pitch against the Astros in Minute Maid Park on June 2, he and Mizuhara sit at a four-top in the players’ lounge, looking at their phones. (In the interest of pith-helmeted investigative journalism, I can report that Ohtani is partial to lime-flavored sparkling water.) A few minutes before they sat down, the Angels’ lineup was posted on the wall of the clubhouse. Ohtani, pitching and leading off. (“Still crazy to see it,” pitcher Griffin Canning says. “Warm up in the pen, run to the dugout, throw on a helmet and face Framber Valdez. No big deal.”) Thirty-five minutes later, Ohtani and Mizuhara are still in the same seats, still looking at their phones, proving that even the busiest baseball player in the world has a lot of downtime. At 4:23, catcher Chad Wallach sits across from Ohtani to discuss the game plan against the Astros.

“He’s pretty involved,” Wallach says. “He definitely knows every hitter. He’s pretty confident and dialed into what he’s doing, so I’m just there to suggest a pitch every once in a while.”

The task is not small. Ohtani throws eight pitches: a four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a sweeper, a “shorter” slider, a curveball, a cutter, a split-finger and something Ohtani calls a “running split” — a split that has more depth to it. There are eight buttons on his PitchCom, and he reaches under his arm and relays pitch type with the first push, location with the second. The pitch clock gives him 15 seconds to choose and throw a pitch with nobody on base, so there is no time to go through the suggesting and shaking of four pitches, much less eight.

“I’m amazed at what he can make happen off those eight pitches,” says injured catcher Logan O’Hoppe. “He’ll say, ‘I’m going to throw this pitch, but I want a little more depth to it.’ And then he’ll throw it and it’ll have more depth to it. It’s the same pitch, but it’s also not. He’s got eight pitches, but he can make it 16 if he wants.”

What you see today might not be what you see next start. What you see in the second inning might not be what you see in the sixth. Eight pitches and all their variants, adding to the mystery. This granular level of detail is necessary only because pitch selection came up as an issue for Ohtani in both of his starts over the course of the seven games. Against Houston, he threw consecutive sweepers to Yordan Alvarez, the first one a harmless ball and the second one a lifeless thing that Alvarez drove over the wall in right-center.

There is an awkward self-consciousness every pitcher feels when he has just allowed a home run on the road. Fireworks go off, the fans roar and the pitcher, as a sort of penance, is forced to stand out there while the hitter soaks it all in with a relaxing stroll around the bases. Most pitchers ask the umpire for a new ball immediately, as if having one in your glove negates the one in the bleachers. Ohtani nodded for a new ball before Alvarez hit first base, and before Alvarez hit third he had already reached under his left armpit to tell Wallach what he wanted to throw to the next hitter.

After the start, an Ohtani loss, Nevin said, “There are some pitch selection things we need to talk about. A guy like Alvarez seeing two pitches like that … if you put them in the right spot, then yeah. But I’m not saying he should have thrown a fastball, and I’m not saying he threw the wrong pitch.”

In the clubhouse, everyone waited for Ohtani. Mizuhara walked out of an adjacent video room, Ohtani still inside, and looked at the assembled group with a look of surprise. He quickly ducked back into the room and emerged with Ohtani, wearing a black New Balance T-shirt, his right arm wrapped in ice, sweat rolling off his forehead and into his eyes. Questions were asked and translated, and Ohtani earnestly gave different versions of the same anodyne answers we’ve heard for six years.

“I think he understands exactly what the question is before it’s translated,” Davidson says. “But I think it gives him a chance to think, ‘OK, here’s how I want to say this.’ He doesn’t like to give off any of his secrets.”

Mizuhara, 39, is an employee of the Angels, but that seems like something done strictly for accounting purposes. He’s been with Ohtani since he arrived in the United States. He is Ohtani’s ever-present plus-one, usually following two to three strides behind him and almost always carrying something. He carries Ohtani’s luggage into the clubhouse on getaway days; he carries Ohtani’s iPad for him to study hitters and pitchers. He carries Ohtani’s water jug, a comically large vessel designed to look like an office water cooler.

They drive to the ballpark together. They sit together at Ohtani’s locker and in the players’ lounge before and after games. They are apart only when Ohtani is on the mound or in the batter’s box. Mizuhara runs Ohtani’s pregame routine on the days he pitches and the bullpen sessions he throws the day before. He sits in the dugout with a tablet and confides with Ohtani on hitting and pitching between innings. When a new pitcher is called from the bullpen to face Ohtani, it is Mizuhara, not a hitting coach, who heads to the on-deck circle with the tablet to give Ohtani the rundown on the new guy’s stuff. When Ohtani hit the first of two homers on the night he pitched against the White Sox, he didn’t have time for the post-homer frivolity involving the samurai helmet, so he handed it to Mizuhara for the ceremonial tunnel run.

So: Do they ever get sick of each other?

“I wondered about it a lot, and I don’t think they do,” says first baseman Jared Walsh. “They’ve transcended friendship into brotherhood, truly. It sounds dumb, but it’s true.”

THE NEXT DAY in Houston, after grinding through 107 pitches the night before, Ohtani led off again and had four hits. He sent line drives like hornets all over the field: a single to center, a triple to center, a double to left, a single to right.

Long after the game ended, Astros manager Dusty Baker walked through the clubhouse toward his office shaking his head. “We thought he was gassed yesterday,” he said. “And then he comes out today and gets four hits. I’ve never seen anything like him.”

Baker’s comments sparked a question that dogged me through the better part of a week: What is Ohtani’s toughest day?

“I don’t know what day is hardest,” says Minasian, the Angels’ GM. “He makes every day look easy.”

Most of Ohtani’s teammates reflexively said the day he pitches — “Has to be, right?” Wallach asks — but nobody has ever asked. A cynic might wonder: How hard can it be when he’s hitting over .400 on those days?

“I would have to say the day after. Think of it this way: He’s rotating his body this way,” Walsh says as he mimics Ohtani’s pitching motion, “and then he’s swinging the bat and rotating 120 miles an hour the other way. So I would just assume the toll on the hips and the low back with as much torque as he puts on it — you’re going to feel that the next morning. But then again, I think he plays by a different set of rules than the rest of us.”

I asked just about everybody: Nevin, several pitchers, two catchers, four infielders. “I would imagine it’s the day after he throws all those pitches,” Devenski says, while Loup says, “The day he pitches. One, to have the energy to do it. Two, to be prepared the way he prepares to perform on the mound and at the plate.”

Finally, on the last day of the trip, I get the chance to ask Ohtani. He tilts his head a quarter-turn to the right and nods — you get it, the nods always seem to say, and I get you — the way he does when he’s preparing an answer. He listens to Mizuhara’s translation and says, “The biggest workload is obviously the day I pitch, but the hardest day depends on how my body responds after my start. It can be the next day or even the second day after the start.”

As Ohtani ended the interview with English-speaking reporters and turned to the Japanese contingent, Mizuhara stood off to the side and told me, with a hint of confidentiality, “The next day after his start he still has adrenaline. It’s the second day when he’s most sore.” Mizuhara’s insight cracked the door ever so slightly; in this hermetically sealed world, it felt momentous.

THE ANGELS WON the last game of the four-game series against the Astros to avoid a sweep. Ohtani hit an RBI double in the eighth inning to break a tie and push the Angels to a 2-1 win. It felt like a big win, for the team and for Ohtani and for the team’s chances to keep Ohtani, since every game is a referendum on the Angels’ worthiness as an offseason suitor. The clubhouse music played loud enough to bounce ribs.

As the music throbbed, a Japanese-speaking Angels media relations representative is asked whether Ohtani will answer a few questions. He generally speaks only after games he pitches, but there was news — the hit that won the game, plus Nevin’s postgame announcement that Ohtani’s next start would be pushed back a day. She says she will take the request to Mizuhara, who will take it to Ohtani in the players’ lounge to see whether he will answer a few questions in a couple of languages.

If Trout had hit a game-winning double, he would stand at his locker and answer questions until one side or the other grew bored. If Patrick Sandoval’s start had been pushed back a day, he would have called everyone over and chatted for 15 minutes. If Luis Rengifo had hit a game-winning double, a Spanish-speaking translator would be standing with him at his locker waiting for the reporters’ arrival.

The request is relayed to Mizuhara, who stands with Ohtani at his locker. The two speak briefly while more than a dozen reporters stand idly, about 20 feet away. Abruptly, Ohtani puts his head down and walks past everyone to the safety of the players’ lounge, Mizuhara two steps behind.

Many locker room interactions are awkward; this one is weird. Other Angels players, packing up for the flight home, are looking around wondering why the reporters are hanging around staring at their phones and their shoes. Did something bad happen?

After what seems like forever but is probably less than 10 minutes — longer than Ohtani ever speaks after he pitches — the negotiations are apparently complete. The Angels PR staffer approaches solemnly, with news:

“I have a quote,” she says.

First to the Japanese media, she repeats Othani’s words. The reporters start to write, then stop and look up, confused.

She turns to the American media.

“I am glad I got the hit,” she says, “and I’m glad we won the game.”

WHEN NEVIN WAS coaching third base last season before taking over for Joe Maddon, Ohtani asked him to stop giving him signs with a 3-0 count. Ohtani felt teams were pitching him differently on 3-0 depending on the sign; Nevin doesn’t know whether Ohtani believed the signs were being picked or whether the mere act of Ohtani looking to third and Nevin relaying a sign was triggering a certain response. He didn’t ask; he just complied.

“He said he knew when to hit and when not to,” Nevin says, shrugging.

A few at-bats later, Ohtani ran the count to 3-0, and Nevin turned and walked away from the third-base coaching box, determined not to make any motion that might be construed as a sign. Ohtani smoked a double off the wall in right-center — Nevin is looking out from the Angels’ dugout like he can still see it — and stared directly at Nevin when he pulled into second base.

Ohtani looked at Nevin, pointed both index fingers and laughed.

“See?” he asked.

Everything must be examined. He consults sleep experts and nutrition experts. During his MLB-mandated media session the day before the All-Star Game, he revealed that sleep, that most important and boring human need, is the key to his success. He conserves his energy at the ballpark by prioritizing efficiency over repetition. “He understands now that 40 good swings is better than 100 swings,” Walsh says. “He knows when he’s right it doesn’t take much.” Depending on how he feels, he’ll throw his between-start bullpen — it’s really a comprehensive throwing workout that concludes with him on the bullpen mound — either one or two days before a start.

In his second June start, on a Friday night at home against the Mariners, Ohtani once again threw consecutive sweepers to a left-handed hitter, this time Jarred Kelenic, who hit a two-run first-inning homer. Once again, it was attributed to Ohtani’s perfectionism; he threw a bad sweeper in both cases, to Alvarez and Kelenic, then tried to right his wrong by coming back with the exact same pitch, out to prove he could throw it better. Both times the second one was worse: flabby and flat and catching too much of the plate.

After the game — a game in which Ohtani homered and the Angels won, by the way — Nevin was asked whether the problems with pitch selection might cause him and the coaches to rethink allowing Ohtani complete control. Should the catcher, or maybe the minds in the dugout, have a say in what he throws?

“We’d only consider something like that if he came to us with it,” Nevin said.

Ohtani is such a transcendent talent, and so obsessive about his craft(s), that the Angels are rightfully leery of offering even the slightest criticism. Their hopes for keeping him hinge on his comfort level, and his belief that the team has the means and the motive to become a consistent contender. Ohtani is the rare athlete who can play by his own rules and remain universally liked in a baseball clubhouse, perhaps the most insular and caustic place in sports.

“Nobody has done this, and he’s earned that trust,” Nevin says. “He’s the last guy I worry about being prepared for a game.”

Minasian is sitting on the bench in the Angels’ dugout, answering the same Ohtani and Ohtani-adjacent questions. In his third season as the Angels’ GM, Minasian inherited Ohtani and all the rules of engagement. He has maintained, publicly and privately, an air of confidence regarding the team’s ability to sign Ohtani after this season.

“We love this player, and we think he’s someone who fits,” Minasian says. “We hope he’s here for a long time, and right now we’re just trying to win games.”

Through 5½ years in Anaheim, Ohtani has been a bargain. He not only makes significantly less than his talent suggests, but his presence fills Anaheim Stadium with a dizzying number of Japanese advertisements. There are signs for Yakult probiotic drink, Bandai Namco video games, Funai/Yamada electronics. The water jug and towels in the dugouts bear the logo of Pocari Sweat, a Japanese version of Gatorade. A video spot for Churu — “Japan’s No. 1 cat treat” — runs after the top of the fifth inning at every Angels home game.

It’s all directly attributable to Ohtani, of course, but he is not in any conventional sense the face of the franchise. Trout is the guy taking batting practice on the field and signing baseballs for Little Leaguers behind home plate. Ohtani’s public offerings are on the field. Will his next employer — or the Angels — agree to the same conditions?

“Let’s say someone gives him $600 million,” I say to Minasian.

“Seven hundred,” he interrupts, laughing. “Eight hundred.” He throws his hands up. Pick a number, any number. Nothing is too outrageous at the moment; Ohtani is a $400 million hitter and a $300 million pitcher, or is it the other way around?

“Play money at this point,” Minasian says. But let’s take the Mets, I say, trying to play through. They’re desperate to win and compete with the Yankees for everything — championships, attention, star power, supremacy in the market. Wouldn’t they expect a more public version of Ohtani?

“You’d have to ask them,” Minasian says.

The inference is clear: You don’t have to ask the Angels. They’ve already answered the question.

ON A TUESDAY night in Anaheim, against the Cubs, the vision sprang to life. Ohtani and Trout were on base five times. Ohtani homered. In the fifth, the Cubs brought in left-handed reliever Brandon Hughes to face Ohtani, who walked to set up a two-out, two-run single by Trout that forever altered the game’s chemistry. A parade of Cubs relievers bounced in from the bullpen with big ideas ready to be deflated. This — this right here, on June 6, 2023 — is what it looks like when it works.

Ohtani has done what Trout did before him: provide a glossy cover to a sloppily plotted book. The Angels have made the postseason once in Trout’s time with the team, a first-round loss in 2014. Things will change, and change quickly, because change is the Angels’ specialty, but this win will be part of a stretch when the Angels win eight of nine to go eight games over .500. And on this day, a columnist at The Seattle Times wrote about the Mariners’ unexpectedly poor season under the headline, “Are the Mariners ruining any chance to sign Shohei Ohtani?” In San Francisco, a columnist outlined his version of what the Giants, suddenly viable contenders, need to do to stay in the running to sign Ohtani.

Against this backdrop — every game a referendum — Minasian set about the job of reupholstering the roster. “Everyone understands it takes more than two great players to win,” he says. His draft picks, including Neto and relievers Ben Joyce and Sam Bachman, were making an impact. Mike Moustakas and Eduardo Escobar were brought in through trades, moves that served for the moment to quiet any talk of a pending Ohtani deal. With their audience clearly identified, they desperately tried to get better, to prove they’re serious, to make the playoffs, to answer the many iterations of the one question that will dictate everything else.

Can you keep Ohtani?

For his part, Ohtani seems happy to remain lost in the many tasks that await him. He seems comfortable in his self-contained world. His talent continues to keep its promise, regardless of what swirls around him. But what about the next two weeks, and then the next two months? That’s the thing about Ohtani: Aside from all the first-evers and never-befores and what’s-nexts, he seems singularly equipped to ignore the noise of the moment, and the noise to come.

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From the big six to MLB’s disappointments: Second-half preview, rankings, playoff odds for all 30 teams

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July 19, 2025

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From the big six to MLB's disappointments: Second-half preview, rankings, playoff odds for all 30 teams

Jul 18, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

Some things about the 2025 MLB season have been predictable: the Los Angeles Dodgers having one of the best records in the majors, Aaron Judge having another MVP-caliber season, and Paul Skenes continuing to dominate as one of baseball’s best pitchers.

As always, though, there have been a number of surprises, too — both good and bad. The Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves have had incredibly disappointing campaigns, with both clubs near the bottom of their respective leagues. Juan Soto began his tenure with the New York Mets off to a slow start before heating up and riding that momentum into the All-Star break. Nobody thought the Colorado Rockies would be good this year — but nobody thought they’d be this bad, on pace to break the single-season loss record set by the Chicago White Sox just last season.

The second half of the season is sure to bring more excitement, with a battle at the top for best record between the Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs. A number of division races are also close, as the Cubs are up only a game on the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, the Mets are just a half-game behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and the Toronto Blue Jays, after a red-hot streak to end the first half, lead the New York Yankees by two games. And the wild-card races could go down to the wire, with six teams in the American League within five games of the final wild card and four in the National League within six games of the final spot.

How will all of these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the homestretch? And what does your club have to play for?

We’ve broken down all 30 squads into six tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield, Jorge Castillo, Eric Karabell and Tristan Cockcroft to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.

Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle’s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.

Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers.

TIER 1: THE BIG SIX

Record: 59-38 | Projected final record: 96-66

Division title odds: 98.6% | Playoff odds: 99.7% | Championship odds: 13.4%

How they got to the top: The Tigers exploded out of the gate on the strength of a launch-heavy offense and dynamic starting pitching. By the time Detroit cooled a bit, it had already built a double-digit lead in the AL Central. Emergent star power has fueled the Tigers’ well-balanced roster. Riley Greene (.284, 24 homers, 78 RBIs) has led the offense, while defending AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.23 ERA) is building a strong case to win the award again. The stars have been boosted by surprise/improved performances from Javier Baez, Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres, Casey Mize and others up and down the roster.

What to expect from here: With the division race all but wrapped up, the Tigers’ second half will be about filling in roster gaps up to and including deadline day (July 31). The pitching staff needs more depth in both the rotation and the bullpen. The starting staff was thinned by Jackson Jobe’s injury and, increasingly, it’s unclear when veteran Alex Cobb might return. More pressing is the need in a bullpen that has been more solid than dominant. In a postseason setting, you want more of the latter than the former when it comes to championship-leverage high points. — Doolittle

Record: 58-39 | Projected final record: 97-65

Division title odds: 91.8% | Playoff odds: 99.0% | Championship odds: 16.4%

How they got to the top: By getting their starting pitchers healthy. The Dodgers entered the All-Star break with the NL’s best record even though they received a combined eight starts from Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, two pitchers who were expected to front their rotation. But Glasnow has since returned from injury, Snell could join him before the end of the month, and Shohei Ohtani is pitching again (and looks really good, albeit in small samples). The Dodgers were severely short-handed in their rotation throughout the first half and had to burn through their bullpen, a unit that leads the majors in innings pitched by a wide margin. They’ve been carried by a deep, high-profile offense and several back-end-of-the-roster pitchers who have taken on bigger roles. Snell and Glasnow being full-fledged members of their rotation, and Ohtani getting more stretched out, could elevate them to a different level.

What to expect from here: The Dodgers still have to bridge a gap at third base, with Max Muncy out at least through July with a knee injury that wasn’t as bad as initially feared. Muncy had been one of the sport’s most productive hitters since the middle of May. The absence of his left-handed bat has left a major void.

Freddie Freeman, meanwhile, is in the midst of a prolonged slump, and Mookie Betts has yet to really get going offensively. Freeman and Betts need to get on track. So does Michael Conforto, who slashed only .184/.298/.322 in the first half. The Dodgers are expected to target back-end relievers ahead of the trade deadline, but they could seek an upgrade in left field if Conforto doesn’t show signs of turning things around. — Gonzalez

Record: 57-39 | Projected final record: 97-65

Division title odds: 79.3% | Playoff odds: 98.6% | Championship odds: 15.4%

How they got to the top: With a dynamic offense that simply never slumped for more than a game or two. The Cubs are one of two teams not to have been swept in a series of three games or more, and it’s not because of their pitching staff but because they have the ability to score in so many ways. They rank second in slugging and third in stolen bases, which means almost every position in the order can either hit the ball out of the park or steal a base — or, in the cases of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker, do both. A top-ranked defense also has helped them secure first place in the NL Central, as has a revamped bullpen led by young closer Daniel Palencia.

What to expect from here: The Cubs should keep scoring enough in the second half to lead them to their first postseason appearance since 2020. The front office is likely to be very active before the trade deadline as well, looking to add a starter, a reliever and perhaps help at third base. The Cubs won’t be the favorites in a series against the Phillies or Dodgers but have proved to be as dangerous as anyone in the NL. — Rogers

Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 93-69

Division title odds: 81.2% | Playoff odds: 96.4% | Championship odds: 9.2%

How they got to the top: Getting to the top is standard in Houston. The Astros should make it nine consecutive seasons qualifying for the playoffs, perhaps reaching the ALCS for the fifth time in that span. However, looking closer at this year’s team in particular, this AL West run may be the most surprising, as Kyle Tucker is a Cub, second baseman Jose Altuve is a left fielder and Yordan Alvarez is sidelined. The DH has hit .210 in 29 games, succumbing to a hand injury since the first game of May. The confident Astros remain a top-five team because of their top-five ERA, led by right-hander Hunter Brown, left-hander Framber Valdez and arguably the league’s best bullpen. New leadoff option Jeremy Pena posting a top-five WAR has been critical, too.

What to expect from here: More winning. The Astros are used to this contending thing, even as some (many) of the names change. Twelve games remain versus the eager Mariners and hopeful Rangers, but it is hard to bet against the Astros winning the AL West for the fifth consecutive year. Reintegrating the excellent Alvarez, whose streak of earning MVP votes for three consecutive seasons figures to end this fall, is key to the lineup, which has lacked depth and pop with catcher Yainer Diaz and newcomer first baseman Christian Walker underachieving. The rotation needs stability after the stars, and perhaps right-handers Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti and Luis Garcia can provide it. Expect the Astros to play October baseball. — Karabell

Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 93-69

Division title odds: 66.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 7.9%

How they got to the top: The Phillies’ starting staff has been magnificent, boasting the lowest ERA in the game. It begins with Zack Wheeler but it hardly ends there. Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez have been every bit as good, and while Jesus Luzardo has slowed down a little, he helped Philadelphia win early on while Suarez was out with an injury and Aaron Nola was struggling. Even Taijuan Walker has contributed after some struggles a year ago. Make no mistake, even with a star-laden lineup, the Phillies have been led by their rotation.

What to expect from here: Philadelphia isn’t playing for March-September glory. It’s all about October, which means staying healthy will be No.1 on the to-do list the rest of the way. But don’t expect president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to simply rely on his veteran group without augmenting the roster before the trade deadline. As good as the Phillies have been in the rotation, they’ve had bullpen issues, ranking 23rd in ERA. Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering have been solid, but newcomer Jordan Romano ‘s 1.50 WHIP is problematic. Expect an addition there but mostly expect the Phillies to play their best baseball down the stretch. This is an all-in year for them. — Rogers

Record: 55-42 | Projected final record: 90-72

Division title odds: 33.2% | Playoff odds: 80.1% | Championship odds: 4.2%

How they got to the top: It’s been a tale of three chapters for the 2025 Mets. During the first, from Opening Day through June 12, they produced the best record in baseball behind the best pitching staff in baseball. The second, through the end of June, saw them post the worst record in the majors due to the same staff falling apart. In the third, a 12-day sample leading into the All-Star break, the Mets rebounded to go 7-5. New York cannot expect the pitching staff to rediscover its early magic. Injuries have depleted the rotation, placing the onus on a bullpen that was throwing on fumes. The break came at an opportune time.

What to expect from here: Teams like equating players coming off the injured list in July to trade deadline acquisitions. In the Mets’ case, they received two when Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea were both activated in the club’s final series before the break. The additions are significant. Senga and Manaea were the team’s projected top two starters entering spring training. They help offset the recent losses of Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn. The bullpen, however, remains an area to address before the July 31 deadline.

Offensively, Juan Soto’s elite production since the start of June — he was named the NL Player of the Month for June — after a sluggish two-month start to his Mets career has changed the lineup’s complexion. With Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, who has also been one of baseball’s hottest hitters since June 1, the top of the Mets’ lineup is one of the best in the majors. — Castillo

TIER 2: ESTABLISHED CONTENDERS

Record: 53-43 | Projected final record: 92-70

Division title odds: 58.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 13.0%

How they make the jump to the top tier: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman recently made it clear: He believes the roster could use upgrades in the starting rotation, bullpen and infield (specifically third base). So expect the Yankees to address those areas before the July 31 trade deadline, with pitching help taking priority after starter Clarke Schmidt was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery this month. Besides acquisitions, the Yankees need Aaron Judge to continue producing at an MVP level, the boppers around him to consistently contribute, and shortstop Anthony Volpe to reverse a slide that has seeped into his defense.

What to expect from here: Luis Gil‘s return to the rotation from a lat injury that has sidelined him all season — the Yankees are targeting late July or early August — will be welcomed, and prospect Cam Schlittler‘s recent major league debut was promising, but Cashman believes he needs another starter. His analysis of his roster means he’ll be busy in the next two weeks. To bolster the team, he’ll need to relinquish talent. The names moved could include top prospect Spencer Jones, a towering slugger who has torn up Triple-A since getting promoted last month. If the right players are acquired, the Yankees could capitalize on another MVP year from Judge, win the AL East for the third time in four seasons and return to the World Series. — Castillo

Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 91-71

Division title odds: 18.8% | Playoff odds: 86.8% | Championship odds: 5.4%

How they make the jump to the top tier: At this point, does anybody remember that the Brewers started the season 0-4 while getting outscored 47-15? It took a while for them to find their footing, but Milwaukee is right back where it has been for most of the past decade. This time, the Brewers are doing it with a surfeit of productive young talent. They lead the majors in WAR (per a FanGraphs/Baseball Reference consensus) from rookies. With so many young players on the rise, it’s not clear that the National League’s hottest team entering the break needs to do any more than stay the course.

What to expect from here: This might be the best version of the Brewers that we’ve seen during this current long run of success. The offense is athletic and better balanced than the homer/strikeout-heavy attacks of recent vintage. The team defense is top five in baseball. The rotation is dynamic and deep; if anyone goes down, the Brewers have Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick at Triple-A. Finding quality relievers is never a problem for Milwaukee. This team is for real, and the NL Central race is going to be a doozy. — Doolittle

Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 89-73

Division title odds: 23.7% | Playoff odds: 77.5% | Championship odds: 3.0%

How they make the jump to the top tier: Keep playing like they have since June 26. The Blue Jays went 12-4 heading into the All-Star break, including an impressive four-game sweep at home over the Yankees that vaulted Toronto into first place. The key has been an offense that averaged 5.6 runs in that stretch and lifted the Jays’ team average to .258, tied with the Astros and Rays for best in the majors. The Jays have been outhomered 126 to 101, so they will need to rely on hitting for average to produce runs — although if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets hot and George Springer and Addison Barger keep slugging, maybe they’ll hit for both average and power the rest of the way.

What to expect from here: The Blue Jays are 17-12 in one-run games and 7-3 in extra-inning games, so they’ve excelled in close games even though closer Jeff Hoffman has allowed nine home runs. Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher and Yariel Rodriguez have helped stabilize the rest of the bullpen, however, providing a big improvement over what was a major weak spot last season. It’s hard to completely buy into the Blue Jays since they are 14 games over .500 with just a plus-17 run differential, but that run differential is plus-51 since the beginning of May, and that feels more like a legitimate contender. At this point, they certainly feel like a playoff team, especially if that bullpen trio keeps performing well. — Schoenfield

TIER 3: FIRMLY IN THE MIX

Record: 51-45 | Projected final record: 87-75

Division title odds: 16.4% | Playoff odds: 68.8% | Championship odds: 2.8%

What makes them a potential contender: Umm, presumably you are aware of what Cal Raleigh is doing? The catcher leads the majors with 38 home runs and 82 RBIs, putting him on pace for 64 home runs and 138 RBIs, which would break Judge’s AL record of 62 home runs and be the third-highest RBI total ever for a catcher. With Raleigh leading the way, the Mariners’ offense has surprisingly been pretty good — at least on the road, where they are tied with the Yankees for the highest OPS and have the highest batting average at .270.

But what the Mariners are hoping for are better results from the supposed strength of the team, the starting rotation. George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller have all spent time on the IL, and the Mariners rank just 13th in rotation ERA, after ranking first in 2024. If the rotation steps up in the second half, don’t be surprised if the Mariners run down the Astros in the AL West.

What to expect from here: The Mariners have to expect Raleigh to cool down. Julio Rodriguez went 6-for-12 and homered in three straight games right before the break when the Mariners swept the Tigers, so maybe he’ll finally get going after scuffling all season. They have a couple of lineup positions they could upgrade, especially third base, and maybe they’ll look to add another starting pitcher depending on Miller’s health outlook. With a loaded farm system, the Mariners are well equipped to make a big move at the trade deadline and go after their first division title since 2001. — Schoenfield

Record: 53-45 | Projected final record: 86-76

Division title odds: 10.1% | Playoff odds: 57.3% | Championship odds: 2.0%

What makes them a potential contender: Usually a club trading its best hitter triggers a regression, but the Red Sox have been an outlier after sending Rafael Devers to San Francisco. That’s largely because their young stable of hitters, starting with Ceddanne Rafaela, has filled the void. The 24-year-old Rafaela’s emergence has been astonishing. He entered May 27 batting .220 with a .602 OPS. With Boston’s outfield surplus, his days as the starting center fielder were seemingly numbered. Since then, he has hit .329 with 12 home runs and a 1.017 OPS in 41 games.

Expecting Rafaela to continue the MVP-level production is probably unreasonable, but All-Star Alex Bregman‘s recent return after a seven-week absence plus Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer settling in as big leaguers should make Boston’s lineup dangerous even without Devers.

What to expect from here: Add the Red Sox to the list of contenders seeking pitching help before the deadline — both in the bullpen and rotation. Acquiring a starter and a reliever or two could vault the Red Sox to the top of the AL East and legitimate World Series contender status. If they don’t upgrade sufficiently, they’ll need the offense to continue propelling the club for a shot to play in October, likely as a wild-card team. — Castillo

Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 85-77

Division title odds: 7.6% | Playoff odds: 51.5% | Championship odds: 2.0%

What makes them a potential contender: Kevin Cash, two-time AL Manager of the Year (2020 and ’21), has again played a huge part. Time and again, he extracts unexpectedly great things from his players, from Home Run Derby runner-up Junior Caminero to team WAR leader and All-Star Jonathan Aranda to captivating comeback story Drew Rasmussen. From May 9 through June 28, the Rays’ .674 winning percentage was the best in baseball, moving them within a half-game of the AL East lead.

Rasmussen has played a big part in a durable, dependable rotation, as the Rays stunningly rank second in innings pitched from starters (540⅔), after having never ranked higher than 23rd in the category over the past seven seasons. They’re also second in quality starts (47) and WHIP (1.15) and eighth in ERA (3.71), and they’ll get a big reinforcement in Shane McClanahan in a couple of weeks.

What to expect from here: The Rays did all this despite adapting to an unfamiliar home environment, the much more hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field, but to compensate for them playing 53 of 97 games there during the first half, they’ll now play 37 of 65 on the road to close out the season. Don’t underestimate the home-field advantage that Tropicana Field has given the Rays, whose .635 home winning percentage in August/September since 2021 is third best in baseball. How Cash navigates his team through its five remaining road trips might ultimately determine the Rays’ fate, especially in light of the disappointing 2-8 trip they endured to conclude the first half. — Cockcroft

Record: 52-44 | Projected final record: 87-75

Division title odds: 4.4% | Playoff odds: 48.6% | Championship odds: 1.5%

What makes them a potential contender: For all their injuries and underperformers, the Padres entered the All-Star break holding the third NL wild-card spot, and were 5½ games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Jackson Merrill‘s production has dipped and he has made two trips to the IL, Opening Day starter Michael King has been sidelined since mid-May, and Dylan Cease‘s 4.88 ERA is a career worst. But the Padres at least win the games they’re supposed to, going 31-18 at home and 18-4 against the bottom five teams in baseball in terms of winning percentage. They also sport one of the league’s best and deepest bullpens.

What to expect from here: General manager A.J. Preller is one of the game’s most aggressive at his craft, and how he bolsters via trade an offense that ranks in the bottom eight in runs per game, wOBA and home runs will play a big part in the Padres’ postseason fate. Getting back a healthy King and getting Cease and recently activated Yu Darvish on track before the toughest and most critical intradivisional portion of their schedule in mid-August will also prove important. — Cockcroft

Record: 52-45 | Projected final record: 86-76

Division title odds: 3.6% | Playoff odds: 44.3% | Championship odds: 1.3%

What makes them a potential contender: Their pitching. The Giants entered the All-Star break with the best bullpen ERA in the majors, with the back-end trio of Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez and Camilo Doval being especially dominant. Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, meanwhile, had combined to post a 2.80 ERA in 40 starts, forming one of the best rotation duos in the sport. New Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey wanted to build teams that hung their hat on pitching and defense, a nod to the World Series champions he was part of but also a reaction to how difficult it is to hit at Oracle Park. He’s 1-for-2 so far. The 2025 Giants have graded out poorly on defense, but their pitching has kept them relevant.

What to expect from here: The Giants already made their big move ahead of the trade deadline, acquiring Rafael Devers and his massive contract from the Boston Red Sox. Devers, one of the game’s best hitters, was brought in to change the dynamic of a mediocre Giants offense, but that has yet to happen. The three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger has slashed just .202/.330/.326 over his first 25 games with San Francisco. At some point, though, he will get going again. And when he does, perhaps the Giants’ offense — a strong one if Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee can also get right — will finally support the Giants’ pitching. — Gonzalez

Record: 51-46 | Projected final record: 84-78

Division title odds: 1.5% | Playoff odds: 27.9% | Championship odds: 0.7%

What makes them a potential contender: The Cardinals don’t do anything spectacular but they also don’t have a glaring weakness. It’s been a steady ship since some early-season struggles that almost doomed them in the playoff race. On May 1 they were four games under .500, but by June 1 they were seven over. That steady climb has characterized their first half. Perhaps the best example of their plight is the fact that they had just one All-Star, infielder Brendan Donovan, who might have made it due to every team needing a representative as much as anything else. That’s not to take away from St. Louis. It’s a compliment to them on a good half without star-level performances. Sonny Gray has been good. So has Alec Burleson. But the Cardinals narrative this season is about team over individual.

What to expect from here: The next two weeks feel critical for the Cardinals, but they might have already played their way into staying together and competing for a playoff berth. Besides, the same guys that turned down trades in the winter because of their no-trade clauses are likely to do it again later this month. The players believe in their team. Now it’s up to management to do the same — especially in top decision-maker John Mozeliak’s final season.

The biggest question might involve closer and free agent-to-be Ryan Helsley. Sure, he’s not having the same season he did a year ago, but what if Mozeliak gets an offer he can’t refuse? It’s not impossible to do a little adding and subtracting at the deadline and still compete. St. Louis could use another starter, as Erick Fedde has struggled mightily. Meanwhile, righty Michael McGreevy should find his way back into the rotation as well. — Rogers

TIER 4: PLAYING THEIR WAY OUT OF CONTENTION

Record: 48-49 | Projected final record: 82-80

Division title odds: 2.3% | Playoff odds: 21.8% | Championship odds: 0.8%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: No offense, Rangers fans, but this is not the offensive output of a contending team. The 2023 World Series champions averaged 5.4 runs per game and mashed 233 home runs, each figure third in the sport. This season’s bunch is even more disappointing than last year’s, 24th in runs and barely at 100 home runs at the break. Holdovers Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung (demoted to the minors) have disappointed, and newcomers Joc Pederson and Jake Burger (demoted to the minors but back with the club) have really disappointed.

Beleaguered manager Bruce Bochy, with few options, has been alternating underwhelming offensive catchers Jonah Heim and Kyle Higashioka as his regular DH. The league’s best pitching (3.28 ERA) keeps the club in the mix, but Corey Seager not only must stay healthy, and he needs more help.

What to expect from here: It’s a small sample, but the Rangers boast the No. 5 wOBA in July (12 games), as Semien and Garcia look rejuvenated, and Wyatt Langford (.954 OPS in July) solidifies a run-producing spot. Burger and Jung should improve their numbers. The Rangers may not match their first-half pitching performance, but they figure to hit better than .229 in home games the final two months. Well, they better do that, or amazing RHP Jacob deGrom, making his most starts since the 2019 campaign, will be watching October baseball for the ninth season out of the past 10. — Karabell

Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 81-81

Division title odds: 0.9% | Playoff odds: 17.0% | Championship odds: 0.4%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense is averaging just 4.19 runs per game, a significant drop from last season’s 4.58 and way down from the 4.80 the Twins averaged in 2023 when they won the AL Central. It’s the lowest output for the Twins since 2013, and two of the major culprits are supposed to be two of their best players: Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. Correa has been healthy, but is posting career lows in OBP, slugging and OPS. Lewis has once again battled injuries, but even when he has played, he has hit just .216/.281/.302 with two home runs in 42 games.

What to expect from here: Amazingly, the Twins had a 13-game winning streak in May and still entered the All-Star break with a losing record, which shows how poorly they played aside from that stretch. The Twins haven’t played well on the road, going 19-29, and 12 of their first 18 games coming out of the break will be on the road, including series against the Dodgers and Tigers. Those 18 games will tell us whether the Twins can get closer in the wild-card race. If they do find a way to reach the postseason, they could be a sleeper with one of the best bullpens in the majors, but right now it feels like they lack the consistency to get there. — Schoenfield

Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 82-80

Division title odds: 0.4% | Playoff odds: 10.9% | Championship odds: 0.2%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The Reds’ rotation has been excellent, even with ace Hunter Greene missing time. That group is also Cincinnati’s best hope for crawling back into the wild-card picture. But the Reds haven’t played well against teams in the top couple of tiers of the majors, and by quality of opponent, Cincinnati has arguably the toughest remaining schedule of any team in baseball. The Reds have played solid ball but need to be a lot better than that over the second half.

What to expect from here: Greene should return and, given the strength and depth of the rotation, the Reds aren’t likely to collapse. But an uneven offense that doesn’t have enough middle-of-the-order power isn’t likely to fuel a sustained run, either. The Reds are middling, in other words, which could have worked in some versions of the NL Central, but not the one that has emerged in 2025. — Doolittle

Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 80-82

Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 8.3% | Championship odds: 0.2%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Injuries, injuries and more injuries. On the position player side, catcher Gabriel Moreno, infielder Ildemaro Vargas and first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith have resided on the IL since mid-June. In the bullpen, standouts Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk underwent Tommy John surgery last month; veteran Shelby Miller landed on the IL with a strained forearm July 5 to interrupt a dominant season with a 1.98 ERA; sidearmer Ryan Thompson is out with a shoulder injury; and left-hander Jalen Beeks is on the IL with back inflammation. In the rotation, Corbin Burnes underwent Tommy John surgery last month after signing the largest contract in franchise history over the offseason.

Then there are the significant players who missed time earlier in the season. All-Stars Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll were sidelined for weeks. So were veteran starter Eduardo Rodriguez and reliever Kevin Ginkel. In short, it’s been a terribly unlucky season for a club that had World Series hopes.

What to expect from here: At this point, every contender is praying for the Diamondbacks’ downfall over the next two weeks. Arizona becoming an aggressive seller would dramatically change the trade market, infusing it with talent that would create bidding wars and produce huge hauls to brighten the organization’s future. At 47-50 and 5½ games from a postseason spot, it’ll take a heater in the 12 games before the deadline for the Diamondbacks to stand pat. That probably isn’t happening. — Castillo

Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 79-83

Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 7.7% | Championship odds: 0.1%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense, and only the offense. The Royals are playoff caliber in every other phase of the game. The MLB median for runs in a game is four. Using that as a standard, let’s give a win to an offense that beats four in any given game, a tie if it matches that and a loss if it falls short. By that methodology, the Royals’ offense went 21-59-17 (.304) during the first half. Only the Rockies were worse, and just barely. Kansas City can win with average offense but there’s nothing we’ve seen from the Royals to suggest their attack can reach and stay at even that modest level.

What to expect from here: Everything teeters on the trade deadline. Can the Royals add at least one, and preferably two, impact bats, and do so without undermining the team defense that remains the club’s backbone? It’s a really tall order and the Royals don’t have the kind of minor league depth or payroll flexibility to fill it. It’s also not clear if this year’s team is worthy of that kind of aggression in the first place. Coming out of the break, the Royals have to go on a tear, or they’ll be looking ahead to 2026 and beyond. — Doolittle

Record: 46-49 | Projected final record: 78-84

Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 6.3% | Championship odds: 0.1%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Offense. The Guardians are 26th in the majors in runs per game, averaging just 3.72. They’re hitting just .222 overall and, unlike last season when they produced a lot of clutch hitting with runners on base, just .221 with men on. During a 10-game losing streak in late June and early July, they were shut out five times, which feels like an impossible feat even in the dead ball era (and we’re not in the dead ball era). It’s not a surprise to learn that the Guardians have the lowest hardest-hit percentage (balls hit at 95 mph or harder) in the majors.

What to expect from here: The Guardians did bounce back from that 10-game losing streak with six wins in their final seven games before the break. They get the Athletics, Orioles, Royals, Rockies and Twins coming out of the break — five consecutive series against teams currently with losing records — so if they dominate that stretch, they’ll be right back in the thick of the wild-card race.

Still, it’s hard to envision this light-hitting team reaching the postseason, especially since the bullpen hasn’t been as dominant as last season and the rotation is a mediocre 17th in ERA. Indeed, unless the Guardians come out of the break scorching hot, you have to wonder if the front office will make a reliever or two available at the trade deadline. — Schoenfield

Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 76-86

Division title odds: 0.2% | Playoff odds: 2.4% | Championship odds: 0.0%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Simply put, talent. The Angels went into the All-Star break only two games below .500 despite a minus-62 run differential, outperforming their Pythagorean record by five games. Depth of the 40-man roster is traditionally their biggest weakness, but it hasn’t really been tested. None of their starting pitchers have suffered injuries. Their overall roster has been relatively healthy. In many ways, they have had as good a fortune as one can reasonably hope for through the season’s first three-plus months.

They’ve also shown some promise. Their pitching has taken a big step forward, with Jose Soriano and Reid Detmers in particular showing flashes of success. And their lineup has shown some real potential, even though Mike Trout — with favorable underlying numbers — has yet to really get going.

What to expect from here: It’s been 10 years since the Angels were even relevant for the stretch run of a season. That’s the goal: to stay in it. And if they continue to do that over these next few weeks, it will be really hard to see owner Arte Moreno, the same man who did not trade Shohei Ohtani in the lead-up to his free agency, trigger anything resembling a teardown. The Angels have several intriguing pending free agents, namely Tyler Anderson, Kenley Jansen, Luis Rengifo and Yoan Moncada. They might add. They might add and subtract simultaneously, swapping expiring contracts for controllable players who can help in the immediate or close-to-immediate future. But they probably won’t punt on 2025 if they can help it. — Gonzalez

TIER 5: THE DISAPPOINTMENTS

Record: 42-53 | Projected final record: 77-85

Division title odds: 0.1% | Playoff odds: 2.1% | Championship odds: 0.1%

How they got here: Injuries, a key suspension and an 0-7 start have buried this team, which is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first season since 2017, Brian Snitker’s first full year as manager. Everyone knew it would take time for Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) and Spencer Strider (elbow) to recover, and they debuted well into the season. But the Braves hardly counted on losing their prime free agent signing in Jurickson Profar to an 80-game suspension, and most of the rest of the rotation as well, as Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder), Chris Sale (ribs) and breakout Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) may not return this September. That might depend on the state of the team, and currently things are not looking good.

What to expect from here: GM Alex Anthopoulos is no newcomer to the trade deadline scene, and if the club cannot get closer than its current 9.5 games away from an NL wild-card spot in two weeks, he may have no choice but to trade veterans. Who goes? Perhaps Marcell Ozuna, his slugging percentage down from .546 to .396, is first. Embattled closer Raisel Iglesias, with his bloated 4.42 ERA, would seem an obvious choice. Rejuvenated Sean Murphy is a possibility with rookie Drake Baldwin emerging. Even the sputtering Michael Harris II, last among 158 qualifiers with a .551 OPS, could use a new start. Regardless of who moves on, this is far from what Braves fans expected in March, but don’t be surprised if the franchise keeps enough talent to contend again in 2026. — Karabell

Record: 43-52 | Projected final record: 73-89

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.5% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: The Orioles stumbled out of the gate, with a 12-18 record at the end of April, including losses of 24-2 and 15-3. Then the season really fell apart with a 3-16 stretch in May — against a relatively soft part of the schedule. Manager Brandon Hyde got the ax and fans rightly pounced on GM Mike Elias and new owner David Rubenstein for failing to address the rotation in the offseason with somebody other than 41-year-old Charlie Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano.

Still, if the offense had lived up to preseason expectations, the Orioles might be in the playoff race. Instead, the offense has declined from one of the best in the majors (4.85 runs per game) to below average (4.14 runs per game). They’ve lost nearly 50 points of OPS despite moving in the left-field fence at Camden Yards by varying distances of 9 to 20 feet. Yes, the rotation is the major culprit here, ranking next to last in ERA, but it’s been a teamwide collapse.

What to expect from here: With up to 12 potential free agents, the Orioles are likely to be the busiest team at the trade deadline. Some of the key players who could be traded include Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, Zach Eflin and even Morton, who has pitched better after a horrid start (2.76 ERA over his past eight starts). O’Hearn will have a lot of interest, but the other big name that teams may be asking about is closer Felix Bautista. He’s back from Tommy John surgery throwing gas, has a low salary ($1 million) and is under team control through 2027. That means the Orioles are likely to keep him, but given the list of contenders looking for late-game bullpen help, Bautista could bring back a big return. — Schoenfield

Record: 44-51 | Projected final record: 72-90

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.2% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: Not much in South Florida has gone quite according to plan. Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins’ expected ace and premium midseason trade chip, ranks last among pitchers with minus-1.6 WAR. Xavier Edwards and Connor Norby haven’t progressed as smoothly as hoped. The rotation has struggled to consistently find options for the No. 4 and 5 slots, and the Marlins’ 5.02 first-half ERA was third worst in baseball. But, just as unexpected, the offense has shown a spark over the past month. Since June 9, only eight teams scored more runs, led by All-Star Kyle Stowers (.316/.404/.663 rates and nine home runs) and with solid production from Otto Lopez and rookie Agustin Ramirez.

What to expect from here: With the youngest roster in baseball, the Marlins will continue to feature their young stars. In addition to the names above, Eury Perez is quickly recapturing his pre-Tommy John surgery buzz as one of the game’s most promising starters. Alcantara’s trade value has plummeted, but he’ll still probably be moved for prospects, potentially along with Anthony Bender, Edward Cabrera or Jesus Sanchez. — Cockcroft

Record: 39-58 | Projected final record: 68-94

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: It’s almost like adding little to an offense that had an 87 OPS+ (tied for 27th) in 2024 was a bad idea. This year, they’re at 79, in a three-way tie for last with the White Sox and Rockies. Consider that win-loss method using the median run total of four we cited in the Kansas City entry above, and reverse the standards to look at run prevention. The Pirates’ pitching and defense went 50-35-12 (.577) by that method, ranking 10th overall and sixth in the NL. That’s playoff-level run prevention. The sputtering offense renders that success irrelevant.

What to expect from here: Same old, same old for the Pirates. They’ll offload veterans at the deadline and play out the string, leaving their fans wondering what exactly, if anything, will ever change with this franchise. That assumes, of course, that rumblings about dangling Paul Skenes in a potential trade don’t resurface. If they do and, worse, such a trade comes to pass, the Pirates might not have any fans left. That aside, Bucs fans at least get Skenes every few days and get to watch Oneil Cruz run fast, throw hard and hit the ball far, all while hitting around .210. — Doolittle

Record: 41-57 | Projected final record: 67-95

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: This dysfunctional franchise lost 93 games last season, its final ride in Oakland, so perhaps the word “here” has special meaning in this case, referring to the new, temporary (for three years?) home in West Sacramento. The Athletics — don’t call them Sacramento! — are second worst in MLB in run differential at minus-134, so they deserve their last-place designation, though things weren’t so bad early on. The Athletics were 20-16 a week into May before rough pitching spiraled them into losing 20 of 21 games. Not everything is bad. SS Jacob Wilson and 1B Nick Kurtz are among the leading contenders for AL Rookie of the Year honors, two-time All-Star OF Brent Rooker is on his way to a third consecutive 30-home run season, and RHP closer Mason Miller is back on track after a rough April. The future on the field looks relatively promising.

What to expect from here: RHP Luis Severino, signed to a multiyear contract in December, really does not enjoy pitching in Sacramento (6.68 ERA) and certainly has no issue telling everyone about it. His solid road numbers (3.04 ERA) should attract trade interest, perhaps back to one of his former New York-based clubs. It would be surprising if the Athletics parted with Miller. The Athletics are eminently watchable when they hit, though they remain below average in scoring runs. The pitching is the problem (5.20 ERA), and there is little help on the immediate horizon, so expect myriad high-scoring contests this summer, whether in Sacramento or elsewhere. — Karabell

Record: 38-58 | Projected final record: 65-97

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: The Nationals’ first half was not entirely without positives, as James Wood (4.4) and MacKenzie Gore (3.6) have been top-10 performers in terms of WAR on their respective sides of the ball, but on the whole the Nats were plagued by poor process, pathetic ‘pen performance and puzzling news conferences. A 7-20 stretch between June 7 and July 6 culminated in the firings of general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, seven days ahead of the team possessing the No. 1 pick in the MLB draft. The team’s unexpected selection of Eli Willits was regarded as representative of the organization’s unclear direction.

What to expect from here: Continued focus on player development under Miguel Cairo, an interim manager for the second time in four seasons. The team can and should move impending free agents Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka and Amed Rosario, and it should aim to take another look at 2020 first-rounder Robert Hassell III, a .298/.404/.488 hitter since his mid-June demotion back to Triple-A Rochester. — Cockcroft

Record: 32-65 | Projected final record: 55-107

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: If you like rookies making their MLB debuts, then the 2025 White Sox are for you. It’s brought energy to what was a funeral-like atmosphere just a season ago when the team lost a record 121 games. But with the energy of debuting 11 players comes some growing pains. That’s to be expected and hasn’t dampened the attitude inside the clubhouse.

Team success has been hard to find but individual moments still exist, beginning with Shane Smith, a Rule 5 pick this year, making the All-Star team. Then there is flamethrower Grant Taylor, who both opened a game and closed one in the same series against the Blue Jays. And their latest debut, shortstop Colson Montgomery, was banished to the team’s spring complex earlier this season only to find his way to the majors more recently. There are good storylines with the White Sox for the first time in a few years — just not many wins.

What to expect from here: Growth. And perhaps a few more wins as those rookies get more comfortable. The team will also be active later this month with newcomer Adrian Houser opening eyes around the league. The biggest question surrounds outfielder Luis Robert Jr., who hasn’t hit a lick this season. Will a team take a chance in trading for him? Will GM Chris Getz hold out for a decent prospect or just get Robert off the books — and off the team — as the White Sox’s makeover continues? — Rogers

TIER 6: ROCK BOTTOM

Record: 22-74 | Projected final record: 41-121

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%

Where it all went wrong: Everywhere. It goes all the way back to the beginning, with the circumstances of playing baseball at mile-high altitude, and encompasses the franchise’s entire history, which is marked by an insular approach that has sapped innovation for a team that desperately needs it. But let’s keep the focus on this year. The Rockies went into the All-Star break with a major-league-high 5.56 ERA, a 27th-ranked .668 OPS and minus-19 outs above average, third worst in the sport. In other words, they have been dreadful on the mound, in the batter’s box and on defense. It really is that simple.

What to expect from here: The question everyone seems to have about the Rockies is whether they will actually make drastic changes. The first hints will come before the end of the month, when we find out if they diverge from prior strategy and trade away key veteran players — most notably German Marquez and Ryan McMahon — ahead of the trade deadline. Perhaps at some point thereafter, we’ll find out if owner Dick Monfort finally opts for a new direction in baseball operations. Bill Schmidt is in his fourth year as general manager and, barring a miracle, will oversee his third consecutive 100-plus-loss season. He has been with the organization since 1999. — Gonzalez

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If college football’s playoff system ain’t broke, why fix it?

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July 19, 2025

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If college football's playoff system ain't broke, why fix it?

  • Dan WetzelJul 18, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      Dan Wetzel is a senior writer focused on investigative reporting, news analysis and feature storytelling.

During college football’s Bowl Championship Series era, the sport’s opposition to an expanded, let alone expansive, playoff could be summarized in one colorful quote by then-Ohio State president E. Gordon Gee.

“They will wrench a playoff system out of my cold, dead hands,” Gee said in 2007.

We are happy to report that while college football does, indeed, have a playoff, Gee is still very much alive. The 81-year-old retired just this week after a second stint leading West Virginia University.

What is dead and buried, though, is college football’s staunch resistance to extending its postseason field. After decades of ignoring complaints and the promise of additional revenue to claim that just two teams was more than enough, plans to move from 12 participants to 16 were underway before last season’s inaugural 12-teamer even took place.

A once-static sport now moves at light speed, future implications be damned.

Fire. Ready. Aim.

So maybe the best bit of current news is that college football’s two ruling parties — the SEC and Big Ten — can’t agree on how the new 16-team field would be selected. It has led to a pause on playoff expansion.

Maybe, just maybe, it means no expansion will occur by 2026, as first planned, and college football can let the 12-team model cook a little to accurately assess what changes — if any — are even needed.

“We have a 12-team playoff, five conference champions,” SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said this week. “That could stay if we can’t agree.”

Good. After all, what’s the rush?

The 2025 season will play out with a 12-team format featuring automatic bids for five conference champions and seven at-large spots. Gone is last year’s clunky requirement that the top four seeds could go only to conference champs — elevating Boise State and Arizona State and unbalancing the field.

That alone was progress built on real-world experience. It should be instructive.

The SEC wants a 16-team model but with, as is currently the case, automatic bids going to the champions in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC and the best of the so-called Group of 6. The rest of the field would be at-large selections.

The Big Ten says it will not back such a proposal until the SEC agrees to play nine conference games (up from its current eight). Instead, it wants a 16-team system that gives four automatic bids apiece to the Big Ten and SEC, two each to the ACC and Big 12, one to the Group of 6 and then three at-large spots.

It’s been dubbed the “4-4-2-2-1-3” because college athletic leaders love ridiculous parlances almost as much as they love money.

While the ACC, Big 12 and others have offered opinions — mostly siding with the SEC — legislatively, the decision rests with the sport’s two big-dog conferences.

Right now, neither side is budging. A compromise might still be made, of course. The supposed deadline to set the 2026 system is Nov. 30. And Sankey actually says he prefers the nine-game SEC schedule, even if his coaches oppose it.

However, the possibility of the status quo standing for a bit longer remains.

What the Big Ten has proposed is a dramatic shift for a sport that has been bombarded with dramatic shifts — conference realignment, the transfer portal, NIL, revenue sharing, etc.

The league wants to stage multiple “play-in” games on conference championship weekend. The top two teams in the league would meet for the league title (as is currently the case), but the third- and fourth-place teams would play the fifth- and sixth-place teams to determine the other automatic bids.

Extend this out among all the conferences and you have up to a 26-team College Football Playoff (with 22 teams in a play-in situation). This would dramatically change the way the sport works — devaluing the stakes for nonconference games, for example. And some mediocre teams would essentially get a playoff bid — in the Big Ten’s case, the sixth seed last year was an Iowa team that finished 8-5.

Each conference would have more high-value inventory to sell to broadcast partners, but it’s not some enormous windfall. Likewise, four more first-round playoff games would need to find television slots and relevance.

Is anyone sure this is necessary? Do we need 16 at all, let alone with multibids?

In the 12-team format, the first round wasn’t particularly competitive — with a 19.3-point average margin of victory. It’s much like the first round of the NFL playoffs, designed mostly to make sure no true contender is left out.

Perhaps last year was an outlier. And maybe future games will be close. Or maybe they’ll be even more lopsided. Wouldn’t it be prudent to find out?

While there were complaints about the selection committee picking SMU and/or Indiana over Alabama, it wasn’t some egregious slight. Arguments will happen no matter how big the field. Besides, the Crimson Tide lost to two 6-6 teams last year. Expansion means a team with a similar résumé can cruise in.

Is that a good thing?

Whatever the decision, it is being made with little to no real-world data — pro or con. Letting a few 12-team fields play out, providing context and potentially unexpected consequences, sure wouldn’t hurt.

You don’t have to be Gordon Gee circa 2007 to favor letting this simmer and be studied before leaping toward another round of expansion.

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Arch to victory? Texas preseason pick to win SEC

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13 hours ago

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July 19, 2025

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Arch to victory? Texas preseason pick to win SEC

  • Associated Press

Jul 18, 2025, 05:18 PM ET

Texas, with Heisman Trophy candidate Arch Manning set to take over as starting quarterback, is the preseason pick to win the Southeastern Conference championship.

The Longhorns received 96 of the 204 votes cast from media members covering the SEC media days this week to be crowned SEC champion on Dec. 6 in Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Georgia, with 44 votes, received the second-most votes.

If that scenario plays out, it would mean a rematch of the 2024 SEC championship game, which Georgia won in an overtime thriller. The SEC championship game pits the two teams with the best regular-season conference record against one another.

Alabama was third with 29 votes, while LSU got 20. South Carolina was next with five, while Oklahoma received three and Vanderbilt and Florida each got two votes. Tennessee, Ole Miss and Auburn each received one vote.

Since 1992, only 10 times has the predicted champion in the preseason poll gone on to win the SEC championship.

The 2024 SEC title game averaged 16.6 million viewers across ABC and ESPN, the fourth-largest audience on record for the game. The overtime win for Georgia, which peaked with 19.7 million viewers, delivered the largest audience of the college football season.

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