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Supermarket deals have helped grocery price inflation ease for a fourth consecutive month.

Closely watched data from Kantar Worldpanel, which tracks supermarket sales and prices, charted the steepest decline in grocery inflation during the four weeks to 9 July since grocery inflation peaked in March.

Its inflation measure fell by 1.6 percentage points to 14.9% over the period – bolstering hopes that the worst of the pain from the pace of price increases at the tills is over as the wider cost of living crisis continues to shift.

Kantar said while the grocery inflation figure reflected a further easing in the cost of many staple goods, there was a marked move towards customer spending on promotions, which now accounted for just over a quarter of the total market.

As the grocery sector’s prices continue to be investigated by the Competition and Markets Authority, Kantar’s head of retail Fraser McKevitt said: “One of the biggest shifts we’ve seen in this [promotions] area is retailers ramping up loyalty card deals like Tesco’s Clubcard Prices and Sainsbury’s Nectar Prices.

“This could signal a change in focus by the grocers who had been concentrating their efforts on everyday low pricing, particularly by offering more value own-label lines.”

Kantar noted that Sainsbury’s rate of sales growth had overtaken that of market leader Tesco over the four-week period.

Its report said customers had, on average, saved themselves from paying an extra £353 over the past year by changing their typical grocery habits, such as through trading down to cheaper products or visiting different grocers.

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ONS: One in 20 adults out of food

New threat from war to food prices

The report was released against a backdrop of new concerns about the outlook for food security and many staple food costs.

Prices for corn, wheat and soybean surged on commodity markets on Monday after Russia formally withdrew from a deal brokered by the United Nations that enabled millions of tonnes of grain exports from Ukraine to reach their destination.

Nearly 33 million tonnes of corn, wheat and other grains have been exported by Ukraine under the agreement.

The war in Ukraine has been a major factor behind energy-led inflation in Western economies though the cost of living crisis is continuing to evolve.

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Hunt sets out plan to cut inflation

Inflation expected to fall this week

While food inflation is easing, the main rate of inflation in the UK has proved more stubborn to bring down than expected with the Bank of England suggesting that wage rises, at a rate above 7%, are a factor and too high.

The Bank’s governor has also accused companies of looking to make excessive profits.

Official figures on Wednesday are tipped by economists to show that the main Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation eased back to an annual rate just above 8% from 8.7% in May.

The data is widely expected to reflect Kantar’s findings which offer some limited relief for hard-pressed family budgets.

While energy costs have fallen back, finances are facing an additional squeeze from the effects of the Bank’s interest rate hikes aimed at tackling inflation with some mortgage rates at 15-year highs.

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Pizza Hut salvages restaurants’ future with pre-pack sale

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Pizza Hut salvages restaurants' future with pre-pack sale

The future of Pizza Hut’s restaurants in Britain has been salvaged after the business was sold out of insolvency proceedings to the brand’s main partner in Denmark and Sweden.

Sky News can reveal that Heart With Smart (HWS), Pizza Hut’s dine-in franchise partner in the UK, was sold on Thursday to an entity controlled by investment firm Directional Capital.

The pre-pack administration – which was reported by Sky News on Monday – ends a two-month process to identify new investors for the business, which had been left scrambling to secure funding in the wake of Rachel Reeves’s October budget.

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Sources said that only one Pizza Hut restaurant would close as part of the deal.

More than 3,000 jobs have been preserved as a result of the transaction with Directional Capital-owned vehicle DC London Pie, they added.

“Over the past six years, we have made great progress in building our business and strengthening our operations to become one of the UK’s leading hospitality franchise operators, all whilst navigating a challenging economic backdrop,” Jens Hofma, HWS’s chief executive, said in response to an enquiry from Sky News on Thursday.

“With the acquisition by Directional Capital announced today, the future of the business has been secured with a strong platform in place.”

Dwayne Boothe, an executive at Directional Capital, said: “This transaction marks an important milestone for Directional Capital as we continue to build the Directional Pizza platform into a premier food & beverage operator throughout the UK and Europe.

“Directional Pizza continues to invest in improving food and beverage across its growing 240 plus locations in Europe and the UK.”

The extent of a rescue deal for Pizza Hut’s UK restaurants had been cast into doubt by the government’s decision to impose steep increases on employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) from April.

These are expected to add approximately £4m to HWS’s annual cost base – equivalent to more than half of last year’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.

Until the pre-pack deal, HWS was owned by a combination of Pricoa, a lender, and the company’s management, led by Mr Hofma.

They led a management buyout reportedly worth £100m in 2018, with the business having previously owned by Rutland Partners, a private equity firm.

HWS licenses the Pizza Hut name from Yum! Brands, the American food giant which also owns KFC.

Interpath Advisory has been overseeing the sale and insolvency process.

Even before the Budget, restaurant operators were feeling significant pressure, with TGI Fridays collapsing into administration before being sold to a consortium of Breal Capital and Calveton.

Sky News also revealed during the autumn that Pizza Express had hired investment bankers to advise on a debt refinancing.

HWS operates all of Pizza Hut’s dine-in restaurants in Britain, but has no involvement with its large number of delivery outlets, which are run by individual franchisees.

Directional Capital, however, is understood to own two of Pizza Hut’s UK delivery franchisees.

Accounts filed at Companies House for HWS4 for the period from December 5, 2022 to December 3, 2023 show that it completed a restructuring of its debt under which its lenders agreed to suspend repayments of some of its borrowings until November next year.

The terms of the same facilities were also extended to September 2027, while it also signed a new ten-year Pizza Hut franchise agreement with Yum Brands which expires in 2032.

“Whilst market conditions have improved noticeably since 2022, consumers remain challenged by higher-than-average levels of inflation, high mortgage costs and slow growth in the economy,” the accounts said.

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It added: “The costs of business remain challenging.”

Pizza Hut opened its first UK restaurant in the early 1970s and expanded rapidly over the following 15 years.

In 2020, the company announced that it was closing dozens of restaurants, with the loss of hundreds of jobs, through a company voluntary arrangement (CVA).

At that time, it operated more than 240 sites across the UK.

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Germany: Europe’s largest economy is facing a third consecutive year of recession

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Germany: Europe's largest economy is facing a third consecutive year of recession

Forget this week’s minor decrease in the UK inflation number. 

The most important European data release was the confirmation from Germany that, during 2024, its economy contracted for the second consecutive year.

Europe’s largest economy shrank by 0.2% during 2024 – on top of a 0.3% contraction in 2023.

Now it must be stressed that this was a very early estimate from Germany’s Federal Statistics Office and that the numbers may be revised higher in due course. That health warning is especially appropriate this time around because, very unexpectedly, the figures suggest the economy contracted during the final three months of the year and most economists had expected a modest expansion.

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If unrevised, though, it would confirm that Germany is suffering its worst bout of economic stagnation since the Second World War.

The timing is lousy for Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, who faces the electorate just six weeks from now.

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Worse still, things seem unlikely to get better this year, regardless of who wins the election.

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How young people intend to vote in Germany

Germany, along with the rest of the world, is watching anxiously to see what tariffs Donald Trump will slap on imports when he returns to the White House next week.

Germany, whose trade surplus with the United States is estimated by the Reuters news agency to have hit a record €65bbn (£54.7bn) during the first 11 months of 2024, is likely to be a prime target for such tariffs.

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Fallout of Trump’s tariff plans?

Aside from that, Germany remains beset by some of the problems with which it has been grappling for some time.

Because of its large manufacturing sector, Germany has been hit disproportionately by the surge in energy prices since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago, while those manufacturers are also suffering from intense competition from China. The big three carmakers – Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW – were already staring at a huge increase in costs because of having to switch to producing electric vehicles instead of cars powered by traditional internal combustion engines. That task has got harder as Chinese EV makers, such as BYD, undercut them on price.

Other German manufacturers – many of which have not fully recovered from the COVID lockdowns five years ago – have also been beset by higher costs as shown by the fact that, remarkably, German industrial production in November last year was fully 15% lower than the record high achieved in 2017.

German consumer spending, meanwhile, remains becalmed. Consumers have kept their purse strings closed amid the economic uncertainty while a fall in house prices has further depressed sentiment. While home ownership is lower in Germany than many other OECD countries, those Germans who do own their own homes have a bigger proportion of their household wealth tied up in bricks and mortar than most of their OECD counterparts, including the property-crazy British.

Consumer sentiment has also been hit by waves of lay-offs. German companies in the Fortune 500, including big names such as Siemens, Bosch, Thyssenkrupp and Deutsche Bahn, are reckoned to have laid off more than 60,000 staff during the first 10 months of 2024. Bosch, one of the country’s most admired manufacturing companies, announced in November alone plans to let go of some 7,000 workers.

More of the same is expected in 2025.

Volkswagen shocked the German public in September last year when it said it was considering its first German factory closure in its 87-year history. Analysts suggest as many as 15,000 jobs could go at the company.

Accordingly, hopes for much of a recovery are severely depressed.

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As Jens-Oliver Niklasch, of LBBW Bank, put it today: “Everything suggests that 2025 will be the third consecutive year of recession.”

That is not the view of the Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, whose official forecast – set last month – is that the economy will expand by 0.2% this year. But that was down from its previous forecast of 1.1% – and growth of 0.2%, for a weary German electorate, will not feel that different from a contraction of 0.2%.

And all is not yet lost. The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates more aggressively this year than any of its peers. Meanwhile, one option for whoever wins the German election would be to remove the ‘debt brake’ imposed in 2009 in response to the global financial crisis, which restricts the government from running a structural budget deficit of more than 0.35% of German GDP each year.

The incoming chancellor, expected to be Friedrich Merz of the centre-right CDU/CSU, could easily justify such a move by ramping up defence spending in response to Mr Trump’s demands for NATO members to do so. Mr Merz has also indicated that policies aimed at supporting decarbonisation will take less of a priority than defending Germany’s beleaguered manufacturers.

But these are all, for now, only things that may happen rather than things that will happen.

And the current economic doldrums, in the meantime, will only push German voters to the extreme left-wing Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht or the extreme right-wing Alternative fur Deutschland.

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UK economy just about returns to growth after two months of contraction

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UK economy just about returns to growth after two months of contraction

The UK economy just about returned to growth in November after two months of contraction, the latest official figures show.

Gross domestic product (GDP), the standard measure of an economy’s value and everything it produces, grew by 0.1%, according to data from the Office for National Statistics.

It was expected to grow by 0.2%.

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It is mixed news for the government, which has made economic growth its top priority.

 

Despite this political focus, the economy shrank by 0.1% in both October and September. Latest quarterly data showed there was no economic growth in the three months from July to September.

The ONS described the economy as “broadly flat” and the rise as the economy growing “slightly”.

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Doing well are pubs, restaurants and IT companies, said the ONS’s director of economic statistics Liz McKeown.

New commercial developments meant there was growth in the construction industry, Ms McKeown added.

The services sector grew “a little” but all this was partially offset by the accountancy sector and business rental and leasing.

Also pushing down the growth rate were manufacturing businesses and oil and gas extractors.

Why does it matter?

The government has pegged many of its spending and investment plans on economic growth. It needs growth to meet its political pledges and spending commitments.

But the economy is no bigger now than when the government assumed office in July.

Prices are expected to rise in April when water and electricity bills are increased again and employer taxes go up meaning there’s an expectation of inflation increases.

With more cost pressures on consumers, there are fears growth could be even more illusive than at present. A period of stagflation is feared at that point.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves admitted to Sky News the economy was growing “albeit modestly”.

When pointed to the idea growth has been snuffed out since Labour came to power Ms Reeves said the truth is the British economy had “barely grown” for the last 14 years.

Growth “takes time” and with investment and reform, she’s “confident we can build our economy and make people better off”.

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