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BTC price dropped below $30,000 again on July 18, but the recent crab market price action is also backed by compelling investor activity on-chain. 5497 Total views 51 Total shares Listen to article 0:00 Market Analysis Join us on social networksBitcoin (BTC) price dropped below the $30,000 level on July 18, which retail investors may not have expected given the developments of the last month, but does the downside move represent an upcoming shift in the trend?

Data suggests that over the longer term, it does not.

To get to the positives first, Bitcoin price is still attempting to flip the $30,000 level to support after about 10 attempts since April of this year, but price is continuously finding buyers in the $28,000 to $25,000 range, which buyers seem to be viewing as an accumulation zone.

On-chain data from Glassnodes Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score supports this sentiment and could be a positive, depending on how investors look at things given that the behavior of investors at $30,000 BTC price mirrors the same accumulation behavior seen in the $28,000 to $24,000 zone and the near the supposed $16,800 bottom. Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score. Source: Glassnode

According to Glassnode, an Accumulation Trend Score of closer to 1 indicates that on aggregate, larger entities (or a big part of the network) are accumulating, and a value closer to 0 indicates they are distributing or not accumulating.

Basically, buyers strongly accumulated from November to December and they were heavy accumulators from March to April when BTC recaptured $30,000. The metric suggests they are doing the same in July as BTC attempts to either conquer the $30,000 resistance or received a boost from all the ETF and XRP SEC news.Bitcoin is in a crab market

The current price action and derivatives market data suggest that Bitcoin is in a crab market, where price remains range bound and consolidates for a prolonged period of time. As JLabs analyst JJ the Janitor pointed out last week, a strong push through the $32,000 level would catalyze a CME gap fill from the Luna Terra-crash era. Bitcoin CME Futures showcasing Luna crash CME Gap. Source: JJ The Janitor

From the perspective of Bitcoins weekly market structure, the $30,000 level is an important pivot point that has functioned as support in the previous bull market cycle (and now as resistance) but a grab above that level would essentially set a higher high on the longer time frame and be confirmation of a trend reversal where the next point of resistance is around the $37,000 level. BTC/USDT 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

Traders activity in the derivatives market is another factor contributing to the current crab market. Funding is down, open interest is relatively muted and besides retail plebs who are attempting to long breakouts and long lower support retests, or short breakouts and getting liquidated in both instances, a meaningful surge in these metrics that would inspire confidence that price is on the verge of some massive breakout has yet to emerge.BTC/USDT derivatives data, daily chart. Source: JJ The Janitor

Sure, DXY took a dip below 100 last week, but its possibly more connected to investors reacting to the Feds positive steps on inflation and too tight of a timeframe to expect some massive reaction from BTC immediately.

The price action in crypto exchange futures highlights degen longs and shorts trying to get ahead of price breakouts and that they are not having much success in the short term.

JJ the Janitor suggests that a metric to watch is aggregate open interest, if that breaks down sharply from the current range then some true buy the dip opportunities could emerge. Currently, its still in an uptrend, albeit sideways, but seeing a surge in OI could also be interesting and likely news, regulatory or legislative event driven.

Related: Bitcoin price falls under $30K as macro and regulatory worries take center stage

While Bitcoins short-term price action might raise some concern among newer investors and day-traders, the on-chain perspective remains quite compelling.

The #Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply remains at an ATH of 14.5M BTC. This suggests mature investors are preferring to accumulate Bitcoin, rather than distribute. pic.twitter.com/VkY9uTAVGG glassnode (@glassnode) July 18, 2023

At the same time, the Total Balance in Accumulation Addresses metric has also resumed its uptrend since March 16, when BTC price traded at $25,000. Bitcoin Total Balance in Accumulation Addresses (BTC). Source: Glassnode

Readers should also note that the metric also shows the total balance in accumulation addresses increasing since January 2022, when Bitcoin price was trading at $47,800 per coin. What is apparent is that through the worst of the crypto market collapse and Bitcoin price sell-off, multiple on-chain metrics show investors continuing to increase their allocation to BTC.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. # Bitcoin # Cryptocurrencies # Bitcoin Price # Markets # Derivatives # Market Analysis

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The lesson of Pete Rose and ‘Shoeless’ Joe? History is messy.

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The lesson of Pete Rose and 'Shoeless' Joe? History is messy.

Now that Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred has removed Pete Rose, “Shoeless” Joe Jackson and other deceased players from the game’s “permanently ineligible list,” whatever former stars deemed deserving based on their on-field accomplishments should, at first opportunity, be inducted into the Hall of Fame.

In a bombshell, if long overdue, reversal of policy, first reported by ESPN’s Don Van Natta Jr. on Tuesday, Manfred removed bans for Rose (who bet on games while managing the Cincinnati Reds) and members of the 1919 Chicago White Sox (who fixed the World Series), among others.

After all, banishment was meaningless once they all had died — a life sentence, if you will, for whatever their transgression. Most died decades ago and were on the list for gambling-related offenses.

“Obviously, a person no longer with us cannot represent a threat to the integrity of the game,” Manfred wrote in a letter to the attorney who petitioned for Rose.

The only remaining purpose of the ban was to keep them from the immortality of being inducted into Cooperstown, which bills itself officially as the “National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.”

The last word is the most important.

Museums exist to tell about history, and history is always messy — including in sports. They shouldn’t be solely designed for the sanitized, establishment-approved version of events, or allow outside considerations to overshadow actual accomplishments. They certainly shouldn’t serve as part of some carrot-and-stick approach to desired behavior.

Should Rose and the others have done what they did? Of course not. Should they have been subject to any potential criminal or civil recourse for their actions? Absolutely. Was MLB within its rights to suspend or punish them in other ways? Definitely.

Rose, for example, should never have been allowed to work in baseball again after it was determined he bet on the Reds to win games while he was the manager.

But that doesn’t mean his record 4,256 hits, his three World Series titles, his MVP award (1973), his 17 All-Star appearances (including when he barreled over catcher Ray Fosse in the 1970 game), his “Charlie Hustle” nickname, or that epic head-first slide — shown so many times on “This Week in Baseball” that a generation of kids either crushed their chests or chipped their teeth trying to emulate it — didn’t occur.

So did his gambling scandal, a 1990 guilty plea for filing false tax returns that cost him five months in a federal prison and a 2017 sworn statement from a woman that he had committed statutory rape back in the 1970s, an allegation for which he was never criminally charged. Throughout his life, he could be indefensibly crude, difficult and confrontational.

It’s all part of the story of Pete Rose.

So let him in, then tell the good, the bad and the ugly so the public can decide what to think. This is the Baseball Hall of Fame, not the pearly gates. It’s about a nice day in central New York State with your family, complete with a gift shop.

If the museum is there to tell the history of the sport, well, how do you do it without Pete Rose? If Hall of Fame induction is reserved for the greatest players, then how could Rose not be among them? His foolishness as a manager shouldn’t have eclipsed his impact as a player.

This is where baseball’s policy was always wrong. It used the prospect of barred entry to the Hall as a deterrence. That isn’t what a museum should be about. The risk of criminal charges, lost wages from suspension and general shame should be enough. If it isn’t, so be it.

Manfred isn’t ready to release those still living from the ineligible list. He’s clinging to the concept of scaring current players straight. “It is hard to conceive of a penalty that has more deterrent effect than one that lasts a lifetime with no reprieve,” he wrote in the letter.

Perhaps, but should that be the point?

The Hall is already filled with assorted louts, drunks and racists who just happened to be able to either hit or throw a baseball really well. So what? Their personal disgrace is part of their history.

In fairness, their personal failings didn’t affect baseball the way Rose might have as a managerial gambler, and certainly not as the Black Sox did back in the day.

Still, there are owners and commissioners in the Hall who worked for decades to stop baseball from racial integration. That’s a far more widespread impact on the integrity of the game than betting on your team to beat the Dodgers.

Yes, sports wagering is always a concern and was once a major taboo. But public opinion and business realities changed. There are sportsbooks inside MLB stadiums these days, including, for a stretch, with Rose’s old team in Cincinnati.

History is history. The game is the game. The museum is the museum. Tell the story, the whole story, with all the best players and best teams and best tales, no matter how colorful, criminal or regrettable.

America can handle it. Our real national pastime is scandal, after all.

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Business

Burberry to cut 1,700 jobs after multi-million pound loss

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Burberry to cut 1,700 jobs after multi-million pound loss

Burberry, the UK’s only global luxury brand, is to cut around 1,700 jobs worldwide over the next two years after reporting a steep financial loss.

The company lost £66m in pre-tax profit in the year ended in March as luxury goods sales fell across the world and the company weathered an “uncertain” environment and a “difficult macroeconomic backdrop”.

A year earlier, it recorded £383m in profit.

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It’s suffered in recent years with the share price falling to such an extent the business was removed from the FTSE 100, the index of most valuable companies listed on the London Stock Exchange.

Despite the financial performance, the company was upbeat, with chief executive Joshua Schulman saying “I am more optimistic than ever that Burberry’s best days are ahead and that we will deliver sustainable profitable growth over time”.

What cuts are being made?

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The retailer did not specify any shop closures – in the past year, it closed 26 and also opened 26 stores – but did highlight shift cuts and consolidations.

“We don’t have a store closing programme, per see,” Mr Schulman told investors

The night shift at Burberry’s Castleford factory will be cut, it proposed, saying the shift has resulted in overproduction.

“Significant” investment in the facility will be made, however, as the ambition is to scale up British production “over time”, Mr Schulman said.

Changes to the retail network across the world will be made with shop staff being scheduled around “peak traffic”.

Burberry will be “realigning” shop staff, he said, “so that we can offer the best service” at the busiest times.

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There will also be a “simplification” of Burberry’s regional structure and a “rebalancing” of central and regional responsibilities to reduce duplication and “accelerate decision making” through the retail network.

But the majority of changes will be made to “office space teams” around the world, the CEO said.

Commercial and creative teams have already been consolidated, Burberry’s annual results said.

What’s gone wrong?

Aside from the global slowdown in luxury goods sales over recession fears, additional headwinds have come in the form of President Trump’s tariffs.

“Clearly, the external environment has become more challenging since mid-February”, Mr Schulman told investors.

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Trump’s tariffs: What you need to know

Tariff risks were higher than first planned, the annual results said.

It led the US market to be described by Mr Schulman as “choppy” since February when Mr Trump began announcing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, as well as on goods such as steel and cars.

Sales also fell in the Asia Pacific region by 16%, the results showed.

Criticism was levelled at the 2021 British government decision to withdraw VAT refunds for overseas visitors, “which has made the UK the least competitive destination in Europe for tourist shopping”, the results read.

“Business in our UK home market continues to be seriously impacted” by the move.

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Politics

Bitcoin more of a ‘diversifier’ than safe-haven asset: Report

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Bitcoin more of a ‘diversifier’ than safe-haven asset: Report

Bitcoin more of a ‘diversifier’ than safe-haven asset: Report

Bitcoin’s fluctuating correlation with US equities is raising questions about its role as a global safe-haven asset during periods of financial stress.

Bitcoin (BTC) exhibited a strong negative correlation with the US stock market when analyzing the short-term, seven-day trailing correlation, according to new research from blockchain data provider RedStone Oracles, shared exclusively with Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin more of a ‘diversifier’ than safe-haven asset: Report
Bitcoin, S&P 500, 7-day rolling correlation. Source: Redstone Oracles

However, RedStone said that the 30-day indicator signals a “variable correlation” between Bitcoin price and the S&P 500 index, with the correlation coefficient ranging from -0.2 to 0.4.

This fluctuating correlation suggests that Bitcoin “doesn’t consistently function as a true hedge for equities” due to its lack of a strong negative correlation below -0.3, which is needed for “reliable counter movement during market stress,” the report said.

Bitcoin more of a ‘diversifier’ than safe-haven asset: Report
Bitcoin, S&P 500, 30-day rolling correlation, 1-year chart. Source: Redstone Oracles

Related: $1B Bitcoin exits Coinbase in a day as analysts warn of supply shock

The research suggests that while Bitcoin may not be a dependable hedge against stock market declines, it offers value as a portfolio diversifier.

This fluctuating dynamic signals that Bitcoin often moves independently from other assets, potentially offering additional returns while other assets are struggling. Still, Bitcoin has yet to mirror the safe-haven dynamics of gold and government bonds, RedStone suggests.

Related: Nasdaq-listed GDC plans to buy Bitcoin and TRUMP memecoin for $300M

Bitcoin needs to “mature” before decoupling from stock market

While Bitcoin is poised to grow into a safe-haven asset in the future, the world’s first cryptocurrency still needs to “mature” as a global asset, according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer at RedStone.

“Bitcoin still needs to mature before decoupling from stock markets,” Kazmierczak told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Increased institutional adoption will absolutely help — we’re already seeing this effect with corporate treasury investments reducing Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility and with BlackRock repetitively praising BTC as an asset in a portfolio.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin will see growing recognition as a portfolio diversifier, with an annualized return of over 230% for the past five years, which “significantly outperformed” both stocks and traditional safe-haven assets, Kazmierczak said, adding that “even a small 1–5% Bitcoin allocation can meaningfully enhance a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns.”

Bitcoin more of a ‘diversifier’ than safe-haven asset: Report
Source: Vetle Lunde

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s declining volatility supports BTC’s growing maturity as a global financial asset. Bitcoin’s weekly volatility hit a 563-day low on April 30, a development that may signal more stable price action.

Bitcoin’s price volatility fell below the realized volatility of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, signaling that investors are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a long-term investment vehicle, Cointelegraph reported on May 13.

Magazine: Uni students crypto ‘grooming’ scandal, 67K scammed by fake women: Asia Express

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