Celsius could repay all claims if Bitcoin, Ether prices rose 2X — Simon Dixon
Bankrupt crypto lender Celsius is battling a Chapter 11 bankruptcy with billions of dollars in claims made by various parties. A new estimate by the Bank of the Future suggests that the troubled crypto lender could likely repay the claims if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) — two assets held by the firm — doubled their current market prices.
Simon Dixon, the founder of Bank of the Future — a crypto-centered investment firm — tweeted the estimated price BTC and ETH would need to reach for Celsius to repay all its claims and keep all other assets.
Based on the final deal with the Fahrenheit consortium, which won the bid to acquire the assets of Celsius in May, if the BTC price touches $54,879 and the ETH price reaches $3,750, Celsius could repay all claims from the price appreciation of both assets. In June, Celsius appealed in court to convert all its altcoins into Bitcoin and Ether to maximize the value of assets.
Dixon noted that these estimates are based on “imperfect knowledge made by the BF [Bank of the Future] internal investment banking team with no access to privileged information.” The new restructuring plan under Fahrenheit includes mining, institutional loans, investments valued at approximately $1.4 billion and $450 million in liquid crypto.
The firm also shared a comparison between Fahrenheit’s recovery plans and the Blockchain Recovery Investment Consortium (BRIC) — a holding company affiliated with the Winklevoss-owned Gemini Trust — wind-down plans. The total recovery under the orderly wind-down comes to $3.519 billion, which exceeds the total assets available at $3.417 billion. This discrepancy is accounted for by the variable cost.
The return to retail borrowers is approximately $339 million. Bank of the Future estimates suggests the recovery is about 65% for both options, which could increase to about 75%, assuming 10% of claims are unclaimed. 41.4% of recovery under the Fahrenheit plan is in equity, with the remaining 58.6% in liquid crypto. Only 12.4% of recovery under BRIC orderly wind down is in equity, with the remaining 87.6% in liquid crypto.
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Dixon said creditors should fight to get out of the bankruptcy proceedings before the end of 2023, or before the price of BTC and ETH hit the estimated mark. He added that to avoid “another rug pull, we will need to fight hard against it if it comes up.“
It is very important that we get out of Chapter 11 before #Bitcoin & $ETH approach these numbers to avoid another rug pull that we will need to fight hard against if it comes up.
Estimation of the price of #BTC and $ETH (50/50 basis) at which claims may be paid in full: $BTC… pic.twitter.com/PITQV3pIGM
— Simon Dixon (@SimonDixonTwitt) July 19, 2023
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Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, marks their 50th birthday amid a year of rising institutional and geopolitical adoption of the world’s first cryptocurrency.
The identity of Nakamoto remains one of the biggest mysteries in crypto, with speculation ranging from cryptographers like Adam Back and Nick Szabo to broader theories involving government intelligence agencies.
While Nakamoto’s identity remains anonymous, the Bitcoin (BTC) creator is believed to have turned 50 on April 5 based on details shared in the past.
According to archived data from his P2P Foundation profile, Nakamoto once claimed to be a 37-year-old man living in Japan and listed his birthdate as April 5, 1975.
Source: Web.archive.org
Nakamoto’s anonymity has played a vital role in maintaining the decentralized nature of the Bitcoin network, which has no central authority or leadership.
The Bitcoin wallet associated with Nakamoto, which holds over 1 million BTC, has laid dormant for more than 16 years despite BTC rising from $0 to an all-time high above $109,000 in January.
Satoshi Nakamoto statue in Lugano, Switzerland. Source: Cointelegraph
Nakamoto’s 50th birthday comes nearly a month after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Digital Asset Stockpile, marking the first major step toward integrating Bitcoin into the US financial system.
Related: Bitcoin at 16: From experiment to trillion-dollar asset
Nakamoto’s legacy: a “cornerstone of economic sovereignty”
“At 50, Nakamoto’s legacy is no longer just code; it’s a cornerstone of economic sovereignty,” according to Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain expert.
“Bitcoin’s reserve status signals trust in its scarcity and resilience,” Lian told Cointelegraph, adding:
“What’s fascinating is the timing. Fifty feels symbolic — half a century of life, mirrored by Bitcoin’s journey from a white paper to a trillion-dollar asset. Nakamoto’s vision of trustless, peer-to-peer money has outgrown its cypherpunk roots, entering the halls of power.”
However, lingering questions about Nakamoto remain unanswered, including whether they still hold the keys to their wallet, which is “a fortune now tied to US policy,” Lian said.
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Is Satoshi Nakamoto wealthier than Bill Gates?
In February, Arkham Intelligence published findings that attribute 1.096 million BTC — then valued at more than $108 billion — to Nakamoto. That would place him above Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates on the global wealth rankings, according to data shared by Coinbase director Conor Grogan.
Satoshi’s new addresses. Source: Conor Grogan
If accurate, this would make Nakamoto the world’s 16th richest person.
Despite the growing interest in Nakamoto’s identity and holdings, his early decision to remain anonymous and inactive has helped preserve Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos — a principle that continues to define the cryptocurrency to this day.
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The United States stock market lost more in value over the April 4 trading day than the entire cryptocurrency market is worth, as fears over US President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to ramp up.
On April 4, the US stock market lost $3.25 trillion — around $570 billion more than the entire crypto market’s $2.68 trillion valuation at the time of publication.
Nasdaq 100 is now “in a bear market”
Among the Magnificent-7 stocks, Tesla (TSLA) led the losses on the day with a 10.42% drop, followed by Nvidia (NVDA) down 7.36% and Apple (AAPL) falling 7.29%, according to TradingView data.
The significant decline across the board signals that the Nasdaq 100 is now “in a bear market” after falling 6% across the trading day, trading resource account The Kobeissi Letter said in an April 4 X post. This is the largest daily decline since March 16, 2020.
“US stocks have now erased a massive -$11 TRILLION since February 19 with recession odds ABOVE 60%,” it added. The Kobessi Letter said Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement was “historic” and if the tariffs continue, a recession will be “impossible to avoid.”
Source: Anthony Scaramucci
On April 2, Trump signed an executive order establishing reciprocal tariffs on trading partners and a 10% baseline tariff on all imports from all countries.
Trump said the reciprocal tariffs will be roughly half the rate US trading partners impose on American goods.
Related: Bitcoin bulls defend $80K support as ‘World War 3 of trade wars’ crushes US stocks
Meanwhile, the crypto industry has pointed out that while the stock market continues to decline, Bitcoin (BTC) remains stronger than most expected.
Crypto trader Plan Markus pointed out in an April 4 X post that while the entire stock market “is tanking,” Bitcoin is holding.
Source: Jeff Dorman
Even some crypto skeptics have pointed out the contrast between Bitcoin’s performance and the US stock market during the recent period of macro uncertainty.
Stock market commentator Dividend Hero told his 203,200 X followers that he has “hated on Bitcoin in the past, but seeing it not tank while the stock market does is very interesting to me.”
Meanwhile, technical trader Urkel said Bitcoin “doesn’t appear to care one bit about tariff wars and markets tanking.” Bitcoin is trading at $83,749 at the time of publication, down 0.16% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap data.
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