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Falling fuel, milk, cheese and eggs prices have helped a surprise drop in inflation, while sugar, jam and syrups have pushed to keep costs high, according to the latest figures.

The rate of price rises has dropped to 7.9% in the year up to June, down from 8.7% last month.

Economists had predicted the CPI would only fall to 8.2%, but falling petrol and diesel costs, and a slowing down in food price rises, led to a larger-than-expected drop.

Inflation latest: Interest rate forecasts change sharply

Sky News looks at what is behind the figures – and what is keeping prices high.

Transport

The easing in the annual rate for transport was almost entirely because of changes in the price of motor fuels.

The cost of fuel fell by 22.7% in the year to June 2023, compared to a fall of 12.1% in May.

Average petrol and diesel prices stood at 143.0 and 145.7 pence per litre respectively in June 2023, compared with 184.0 and 192.4 pence per litre in June 2022.

Food

The rate of food inflation has fallen to 17.3% in June, down from 18.3% in May.

The largest reason for this drop came from milk, cheese and eggs prices, with the annual rate easing to 22.8% from 27.4% in May.

There were other, smaller downward effects from meat (mostly from pork products), and bread and cereals.

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‘We aim to halve inflation’

Inflation for these products has been high – and often a driver of price rises – because of the increased costs of production for dairy farmers. The costs of cattle, animal feed and farm labour have all risen in the past year, although this has eased in the last month, helping push inflation down.

But two small, partially offsetting upward effects came from sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate, and confectionery (particularly chocolate), and mineral waters, soft drinks, and juices.

This is in part because India, the world’s second-largest producer of sugar, is cutting export after rains hurt the sugar cane crop and the country diverts more sweeteners to biofuel.

Raw materials and factories

Also falling was the cost of raw materials – they dropped 2.7% in price – the first time they’ve actually become cheaper since late 2020, the ONS said.

The price of goods leaving factories grew 0.1%, down from a rise of 2.7%.

Prices have been rising since the later pandemic years as supply chain problems and difficulty sourcing goods pushed costs up. The war in Ukraine and the ensuing energy crisis saw gas bills at record highs which pushed up costs across the economy. But as wholesale oil and gas prices ease, this has had a knock-on effect on inflation.

Furniture and household goods

The falling cost of raw materials has also seen this category down to 6.6% from 7.5% in May – the lowest recorded rate since November 2021.

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This was partly caused by a drop in prices from a wide range of lounge, bedroom, kitchen and dining room furniture.

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UK ‘moving at glacial pace’ on national plan for defending foreign attack, say MPs

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UK 'moving at glacial pace' on national plan for defending foreign attack, say MPs

The UK lacks a national plan to defend itself from attack and is moving at a “glacial” pace to fix the problem despite threats from Russia and China, a report by MPs has warned.

With the whole country needing to understand what it means to be ready for war, the Defence Select Committee also said it had seen no sign of a promised “national conversation on defence and security” that was launched by Sir Keir Starmer in June.

Sky News and other journalists were even blocked on Monday from interviewing sailors aboard HMS Prince of Wales, the Royal Navy’s flagship aircraft carrier, in direct contrast to the prime minister’s stated aim of greater engagement.

Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales. File pic: AP
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Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales. File pic: AP

Public needs to know ‘what to expect’ from war

“We have repeatedly heard concerns about the UK’s ability to defend itself from attack,” said Labour MP Tan Dhesi, chair of the committee.

“Government must be willing to grasp the nettle and prioritise homeland defence and resilience.

“In achieving this, government cannot shy away from direct engagement with the public.

“Wars aren’t won just by generals, but by the whole of the population getting behind the Armed Forces and playing our part.

“There needs to be a co-ordinated effort to communicate with the public on the level of threat we face and what to expect in the event of conflict.”

The Royal Navy tracked a Russian submarine in UK waters last month.  Pic: Royal Navy/MOD
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The Royal Navy tracked a Russian submarine in UK waters last month. Pic: Royal Navy/MOD

‘The Wargame’ made real?

The findings of the report support a podcast series by Sky News and Tortoise Media called The Wargame – released in June.

It simulated a Russian attack on the UK and played out what the impact might be for the country in the absence of a credible, resourced and rehearsed national defence plan – something Britain maintained rigorously during the Cold War.

Sky News first revealed in April 2024 that the previous government no longer had such a plan, though work was under way to develop one.

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Flagship aircraft carrier to be placed under NATO command

Report’s assessment of war-readiness

The Defence Select Committee report – based on a nearly year-long inquiry – found: “The UK lacks a plan for defending the homeland and overseas territories with little progress on the Home Defence Programme.”

It said this meant the government was failing to meet a fundamental commitment to the NATO alliance – the Article 3 requirement to maintain the “capacity to resist armed attack”.

The report quoted Luke Pollard, a defence minister, acknowledging that “we have been very clear that we are not satisfied with Article 3 in the UK”.

Britain's new Ajax fighting vehicle, which arrived overdue and at great financial cost. Pic: PA
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Britain’s new Ajax fighting vehicle, which arrived overdue and at great financial cost. Pic: PA

Read more: Is the Ajax any good?

Yet the MPs’ report added: “Despite this recognition from government… measures to remediate seem to be moving at a glacial pace.”

It said: “Cross-government working on homeland defence and resilience is nowhere near where it needs to be. The government has said repeatedly that we are in an era of new threat, yet decision-making is slow and opaque.”

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The rebuke from the MPs was published as John Healey, the defence secretary, prepares to announce that 13 sites across the UK have been identified as possible locations for at least six new weapons factories.

“This is a new era of threat,” he will say at a speech in Westminster later.

“We are making defence an engine for growth, unambiguously backing British jobs and British skills as we make the UK better ready to fight and better able to deter future conflicts.

“This is the path that delivers national and economic security.”

Industry will be invited to submit proposals to produce ammunition and explosives, with the Ministry of Defence saying it hopes work on the first factory will begin next year.

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Ultra-processed foods leading cause of ‘chronic disease pandemic’, say experts

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Ultra-processed foods leading cause of 'chronic disease pandemic', say experts

Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) are a leading cause of a “chronic disease pandemic” linked to worsening diets, experts have warned.

UPFs include items such as processed meats, some ready meals and cereals, ice cream, crisps, biscuits, mass-produced bread and fizzy drinks.

They often contain a high level of saturated fat, salt and sugar – as well as additives such as sweeteners and preservatives.

UPFs leave less room for more nutritious foods and are also believed to negatively affect gut health.

Forty-three scientists and researchers have now sounded the alarm and accused food companies of putting “profitability above all else”.

Writing in The Lancet, they said the firms’ economic and political power is growing and “the global public health response is still nascent, akin to where the tobacco control movement was decades ago”.

They warned that while some countries have brought in controls on UPFs, policy is lagging due to “co-ordinated efforts of the industry to skew decision-making, frame policy debates in their interest, and manufacture the appearance of scientific doubt”.

Professor Chris Van Tulleken, from University College London, one of the authors, said obesity and diet-related disease had increased in line with a “three-decade history of reformulation by the food industry”.

“This is not a product level discussion. The entire diet is being ultra-processed,” he warned.

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However, several experts not involved with the article urged more research, cautioning that existing studies had shown a link with poor health and UPFs but not established causation.

Kate Halliwell, chief scientific officer at the Food and Drink Federation (FDF), which represents the industry, said companies had made a “series of changes over many years to make the food and drink we all buy healthier, in line with government guidelines”.

She said FDF-member products now contained a third less salt and sugar and a quarter fewer calories than in 2015.

Previous studies cited by the British Heart Foundation have linked UPFs to a greater risk of heart disease, stroke, and early death.

A 2023 meta analysis in the PubMed journal said evidence suggested an association between UPF intake “and the risk of overall and several cancers, including colorectal, breast and pancreatic cancer”.

Get cancer symptoms checked, charity urges

It comes as Cancer Research UK warned too many Britons are putting off getting potential symptoms checked.

A poll for the charity suggested the top reasons people delay getting potential signs of cancer checked is because of a lack of GP appointments, or thinking their symptoms might not be serious.

More than half (53%) of the 6,844 surveyed said they were put off as they believed getting seen would be difficult, while 47% said they actually had found it difficult to get an appointment.

Some 44% put it off as they though the symptom wasn’t serious, 41% believed they could manage things themselves, and 40% didn’t want to be seen as making a fuss.

Cancer Research UK said it had now trained Tesco pharmacists to spot possible cancer signs – and that people can speak to them in private if they needed.

The pharmacists will be able to give advice on next steps and whether a GP appointment is recommended.

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Scotland secure men’s World Cup spot for first time since 1998 after beating Denmark

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Scotland secure men's World Cup spot for first time since 1998 after beating Denmark

Scotland secured a place at the men’s World Cup for the first time since 1998 as stoppage-time goals by Kieran Tierney and Kenny McLean secured a thrilling 4-2 win over Denmark at Hampden Park.

Scott McTominay’s spectacular third-minute bicycle kick had given the hosts a half-time lead.

Rasmus Hojlund equalised for the Danes in the 57th minute shortly before Rasmus Kristensen was sent off, but Lawrence Shankland restored Scotland’s advantage.

When Patrick Dorgu brought Denmark level again with nine minutes remaining, it seemed they would claim the point needed to top the group and book their place at next year’s tournament in the US, Canada, and Mexico.

However, Tierney fired an unstoppable shot past Kasper Schmeichel in the third minute of stoppage time

And then, with the Denmark goalkeeper up in attack at the other end of the pitch, McLean hit a long-range effort from his own half to spark delirious scenes.

Scotland's Kenny McLean celebrates scoring his side's fourth goal against Denmark. Pic: PA
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Scotland’s Kenny McLean celebrates scoring his side’s fourth goal against Denmark. Pic: PA

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The victory saw Scotland top Group C and secure automatic qualification for the 2026 World Cup.

Head coach Steve Clarke had already led his country to back-to-back European Championships.

He told the BBC: “Scott McTominay scored the best overhead kick I’ve ever seen, and it might not have been the best goal of the night!”

Scott McTominay celebrates scoring the opening goal for Scotland. Pic: Reuters
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Scott McTominay celebrates scoring the opening goal for Scotland. Pic: Reuters

Scotland captain Andy Robertson dedicated the victory to his former Liverpool teammate Diogo Jota, who died earlier this year in a car accident.

He told the BBC: “We certainly put the country through it, but I’m sure it will be worth it.”

“I couldn’t get my mate Diogo Jota out of my head today,” he added. We spoke so much together about the World Cup. When he missed out in Qatar through injury and I missed out when Scotland never went.

“We always discussed what it would be like going to this World Cup. I know he’ll be somewhere smiling over me tonight.”

The draw for the 2026 World Cup will take place in Washington on 5 December.

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