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Selby in Yorkshire, Somerton in the south west and Uxbridge in the London suburbs: from rural to town, from north to south – the three by-elections up this Thursday will tell a bigger story of the state of our politics, with records up for grabs.

In these three seats – and the prospect of at least two more additional by-elections to come in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth – there is so much trepidation for all of those politicians in play, but undoubtedly in the spotlight is the struggling prime minister, Rishi Sunak.

For a governing party, mid-term elections are never comfortable, but this particular set could cast the dye on his troubled premiership. Three by-elections in one day from a disparate set of battlegrounds and the Tories are bracing to lose all three.

That would make Mr Sunak a record breaker in unwelcome ways. He’d be first PM since Labour’s Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three by-elections in a single day and he’d suffer the ignominy of being the PM that saw Labour overturn the biggest Tory majority in a by-election on record, should it flip a 20,137 majority to win Selby. A lot is at stake.

Read more: Everything you need to know about this week’s votes in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton

Labour win in Selby would be ‘totemic’

Labour say Selby hangs in the balance, while one senior Tory – not trying to spin – tells me that while Conservative Campaign Headquarters thinks there’s a chance the Tories will hold on in Selby, they think the party will lose all three.

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“We’re in the death throes and I can’t quite see a way forward and they are stuck managing defeat,” says one former cabinet minister. “[Sunak’s] an unlucky general. Every time he makes a announcement something else blows up, now they are working on the hope that they only have one term in opposition.”

But Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat. If Labour wins that, who’s to say they can’t gain the 124 seats they need for a Westminster majority?

Labour sources agree that losing Selby would be “totemic”, not just because Starmer would break a record, giving him even more momentum into a general election, but because of the psychology of what it does to Tory MPs.

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Why are these by-elections important?

Labour are touchy that the Conservatives have turned holding Selby into a victory given that the swing required to come even close to taking this seat in a general election – 17.9 per cent – is way beyond the swing Sir Keir needs to secure to win at the next general election.

“For Labour, I think expectation is that we will win Uxbridge and have to explain it if we don’t win,” says one senior Labour insider. “I think what is ludicrous is if people criticise us for not winning Selby. There are far too many Tory voters there, so if we take it will be big historically.

“But actually, it will be extraordinary if we run it close given the majority. The difference between losing by 10 and winning by 10 will be a big deal in terms of how the media cover it, but a strong second place puts us on track for winning it [with redrawn boundaries] at the general election.”

‘I think they are just running us into the ground’

Talk to Westminster insiders and the mood is that Somerton & Frome in the south west with a 19,000 Tory majority will go back to the Lib Dems. Uxbridge has been made more difficult to gauge due to the very live row about the Ultra Low Emission Zone air tariff being introduced by Labour mayor Sadiq Khan, which the Tories have grabbed to attack their opponents.

But when we visited Uxbridge this week, the overwhelming view from voters – even Conservative supporters – was for change.

Laura, an NHS nurse on maternity leave, told me that she didn’t believe the Conservatives could hold the seat.

“It can’t continue like this. I mean, it’s been a long time coming and I think they are just running us into the ground it seems.”

Anu, a Boris Johnson backer, and his partner Bijal, told me they were also considering going back to Labour having supported Mr Johnson in the past. “I think they’ve got quite a good chance,” Bijal told me. “We’re thinking, should we, should we flick the switch and go back to Labour?”

Meanwhile Mo, a hairdresser with her own salon just off the high street, was a Johnson backer, but now wants change as she struggles to keep her two-decade old business above water. “My shop was always full, but now we have to give more, people don’t know whether to spend their money.”

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What is a by-election?

Both Labour and the Tories tell me that they are picking up “real anger’ on the doorstep in Selby. One senior Conservative told me canvassing was like a “bin fire” with traditionally Conservative voters telling them they were not going to turn out, while a Labour source says the Tories have nothing to offer core or swing voters on the doorstep.

“There’s a cost of living crisis, taxes are up, none of the five pledges are being hit,” says one senior figure. “In Uxbridge, ULEZ at least gives some reason for voters to mobilise.

“Outside of that, what do they have to offer after 14 years? Cost of living crisis, high inflation, high interest rates, chaos at the borders, a broken NHS, sewage in our rivers and then you ask voters to give you another chance?”

‘Warriors against complacency’

For Labour, Thursday is another stepping stone on Sir Keir’s path to power. Whether he takes one or two of these seats – not winning any is not an option – he will frame this as another staging post to a Labour government.

The question really for Labour is whether they can call this a Blairite win. Three of the top four swings for Labour occurred before Tony Blair became PM, in by-elections in 1994, 1996, 1997. If Labour do win Selby then it would be allow Starmer to claim his party is performing at a level not seen since the Blair era.

They are taking nothing for granted, with one senior Starmer adviser telling me this week that the Labour leader describes himself and the inner team as “warriors against complacency”.

The latest symbol of his discipline was the decision to maintain the two child limit for child benefit, which sparked consternation within the party. “We want to fix problems to Tory benefit system and address child poverty but the country can’t afford it,” explains one senior insider.

“We can’t spend money we don’t have and that means taking tough choices. It’s helpful to have this out there before the National Policy Forum, where people think we are 20 points ahead and we have this big lead and we can do all sorts of things and that is toxic thinking, that is what loses elections.”

Labour insiders keep talking to me about the mis-steps in the 1992 general election campaign, when then shadow chancellor John Smith’s mini-budget said the better off would pay for higher pensions and child benefits. The plan blew up, spectacularly, in his face, lending itself to the Tories’ slogan ‘Labour’s tax bombshell’ as John Major edged victory. There will be no re-run of that. “We are going to do nothing to lose focus or discipline.”

Losing Uxbridge would hurt the Tories, but with a majority of around 7,000, a defeat here is not worse than other defeats in this parliament. Selby is another matter. If it turns red, the psychological damage to Mr Sunak and his party will be immense.

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Crypto banking rule withdrawal by Fed ‘not real progress’ — Senator Lummis

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Crypto banking rule withdrawal by Fed ‘not real progress’ — Senator Lummis

Crypto banking rule withdrawal by Fed ‘not real progress’ — Senator Lummis

United States Senator Cynthia Lummis suggests the crypto industry may be celebrating too soon over the US Federal Reserve softening its crypto guidance for banks.

“The Fed withdrawing crypto guidance is just noise, not real progress,” Lummis said in an April 25 X post. Lummis called the Fed’s April 24 announcement — withdrawing its 2022 supervisory letter that had discouraged banks from engaging with crypto and stablecoin activities — “just lip service.”

Lummis’ tone was different from the rest of the crypto industry

Lummis, a pro-crypto advocate known for introducing the Bitcoin (BTC) Strategic Reserve Bill in July 2024, pointed out several flaws in the Fed’s announcement, even as Strategy founder Michael Saylor and crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano suggested it was a step forward for banks and crypto.

Cryptocurrencies, United States
Source: Anthony Pompliano

She argued that the Fed continues to “illegally flout the law on master accounts” and still relies on reputational risk in its bank supervision practices. It comes as the Federal Insurance Deposit Corporation (FDIC) is working on a rule to stop examiners from considering reputational risk when reviewing a bank’s operations, according to a recent Bloomberg report.

Lummis also highlighted the Fed’s policy statement in Section 9(13), which hasn’t been withdrawn, stating that Bitcoin and digital assets are considered “unsafe and unsound.”

She also reiterated many of the same staff behind Operation Chokepoint 2.0 are still involved in crypto policy today.

“We are NOT fooled. The Fed assassinated companies within the industry and hurt American interests by stifling innovation and shuttering businesses. This fight is far from over.”

“I will continue to hold the Fed accountable until the digital asset industry gets more than a life jacket, Chair Powell — they need a fair shake,” Lummis said.

Related: If Trump fired Powell, what would happen to crypto?

Custodia Bank founder and CEO Caitlin Long seemed to share a similar view to Lummis.

“THANK YOU for seeing this for what it is,” Long said.

Cryptocurrencies, United States
Source: David Sacks

However, many crypto executives praised the Fed’s announcement as a positive development for the industry. Saylor said in an April 25 X post that the Fed’s move means that “banks are now free to begin supporting Bitcoin.”

Anastasija Plotnikova, co-founder and CEO of blockchain regulatory firm Fideum, said the Fed’s decision “is a significant development, as it will simplify the path to institutional adoption.”

Magazine: Ethereum is destroying the competition in the $16.1T TradFi tokenization race

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SEC chair suggests ‘huge benefits’ in agency’s third crypto roundtable

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<div>SEC chair suggests 'huge benefits' in agency's third crypto roundtable</div>

<div>SEC chair suggests 'huge benefits' in agency's third crypto roundtable</div>

In one of his first appearances as the recently sworn-in chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Paul Atkins delivered remarks to the agency’s third roundtable discussion of crypto regulation. 

In the “Know Your Custodian” roundtable event on April 25, Atkins said he expected “huge benefits” from blockchain technology through efficiency, risk mitigation, transparency, and cutting costs. He reiterated that among his goals at the SEC would be to facilitate “clear regulatory rules of the road” for digital assets, hinting that the agency under former chair Gary Gensler had contributed to market and regulatory uncertainty. 

“I look forward to engaging with market participants and working with colleagues in President Trump’s administration and Congress to establish a rational fit-for-purpose framework for crypto assets,” said Atkins.

SEC chair suggests 'huge benefits' in agency's third crypto roundtable
SEC chair Paul Atkins addressing the April 25 crypto roundtable. Source: SEC

Some critics of US President Donald Trump see Atkins’ nomination to lead the SEC as a nod to the crypto industry, acting on campaign promises to remove Gensler — the former chair resigned the day Trump took office — and cut back on regulation. Democratic lawmakers on the Senate Banking Committee questioned Atkins on his ties to the industry, potentially presenting conflicts of interest in his role regulating crypto.

Related: Atkins SEC era sparks massive industry optimism, crypto execs speak out

The direction of the SEC under new leadership

“We’ve noticed that we don’t have to be as concerned […] about being accused of things that we’re not doing, like being broker-dealers for securities,” Exodus chief legal officer Veronica McGregor, who participated in the roundtable, told Cointelegraph on April 24.”It’s just a less scary regulatory environment in general. It is, however, still unclear what the ultimate regs are going to look like for crypto.” 

The SEC crypto task force is scheduled to hold two more roundtables in May and June to discuss tokenization and decentralized finance, respectively. Commissioner Hester Peirce, who leads the task force, told Cointelegraph in March that she welcomed the opportunity to work with Atkins to “reorient the agency,” hinting at an SEC with regulations more favorable to the crypto industry.

In addition to the roundtables, the crypto task force has reported several meetings with digital asset firms to discuss various policies and considerations in developing a regulatory framework.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

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Nasdaq urges SEC to treat certain digital assets as ‘stocks by any other name’

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<div>Nasdaq urges SEC to treat certain digital assets as 'stocks by any other name'</div>

<div>Nasdaq urges SEC to treat certain digital assets as 'stocks by any other name'</div>

Nasdaq has urged the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to hold digital assets to the same regulatory standards as securities if they constitute “stocks by any other name,” according to an April 25 comment letter. 

The exchange said the US financial regulator needs to establish a clearer taxonomy for cryptocurrencies, including categorizing a portion of digital assets as “financial securities.” Those tokens, Nasdaq argued, should continue to be regulated “as they are regulated today regardless of tokenized form.”

“Whether it takes the form of a paper share, a digital share, or a token, an instrument’s underlying nature remains the same and it should be traded and regulated in the same ways,” the letter said. 

It also proposed categorizing a portion of cryptocurrencies as “digital asset investment contracts,” to be subject to “light touch regulation” but still overseen by the SEC.

Nasdaq urges SEC to treat certain digital assets as 'stocks by any other name'
Nasdaq’s April 25 letter to the SEC. Source: Nasdaq

Related: Certain stablecoins aren’t securities, SEC says in new guidance

Regulatory U-turn

The SEC has dramatically pivoted its stance on cryptocurrency oversight since US President Donald Trump took office in January. 

Under the leadership of former Chair Gary Gensler, the SEC took the position that practically all cryptocurrencies, with the exception of Bitcoin (BTC), represent investment contracts and therefore qualify as securities. 

This stance led the agency to bring upwards of 100 lawsuits against crypto firms for alleged securities law violations.

However, under Trump nominee Paul Atkins, who was sworn in as chair on April 21 after a lengthy Senate confirmation, the SEC has claimed jurisdiction over a narrower segment of cryptocurrencies. 

In February, the agency issued guidance stating that memecoins — if clearly identified as purely speculative assets with no intrinsic value — do not qualify as investment contracts pursuant to US law. 

In April, the SEC said that stablecoins — digital tokens pegged to the US dollar — similarly do not qualify as securities if they are marketed solely as a means of making payments.

Nasdaq urges SEC to treat certain digital assets as 'stocks by any other name'
Stablecoin market overview. Source: RWA.xyz

Integrating crypto into TradFi

In its April 21 letter, Nasdaq said existing financial infrastructure “can readily absorb digital assets by establishing the proper taxonomy and calibrating certain rules to reflect what is truly new and novel about digital assets.”

The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) — a private US securities clearinghouse closely overseen by the SEC — has been laying the foundation for integrating blockchain technology into regulated financial markets.

In March, the DTCC committed to promoting Ethereum’s ERC-3643 standard for permissioned securities tokens.

Magazine: Ethereum is destroying the competition in the $16.1T TradFi tokenization race

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