‘We’re in the death throes and I can’t quite see a way forward’: Tories face prospect of a triple by-election defeat
Selby in Yorkshire, Somerton in the south west and Uxbridge in the London suburbs: from rural to town, from north to south – the three by-elections up this Thursday will tell a bigger story of the state of our politics, with records up for grabs.
In these three seats – and the prospect of at least two more additional by-elections to come in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth – there is so much trepidation for all of those politicians in play, but undoubtedly in the spotlight is the struggling prime minister, Rishi Sunak.
For a governing party, mid-term elections are never comfortable, but this particular set could cast the dye on his troubled premiership. Three by-elections in one day from a disparate set of battlegrounds and the Tories are bracing to lose all three.
That would make Mr Sunak a record breaker in unwelcome ways. He’d be first PM since Labour’s Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three by-elections in a single day and he’d suffer the ignominy of being the PM that saw Labour overturn the biggest Tory majority in a by-election on record, should it flip a 20,137 majority to win Selby. A lot is at stake.
Read more: Everything you need to know about this week’s votes in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton
Labour win in Selby would be ‘totemic’
Labour say Selby hangs in the balance, while one senior Tory – not trying to spin – tells me that while Conservative Campaign Headquarters thinks there’s a chance the Tories will hold on in Selby, they think the party will lose all three.
“We’re in the death throes and I can’t quite see a way forward and they are stuck managing defeat,” says one former cabinet minister. “[Sunak’s] an unlucky general. Every time he makes a announcement something else blows up, now they are working on the hope that they only have one term in opposition.”
But Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat. If Labour wins that, who’s to say they can’t gain the 124 seats they need for a Westminster majority?
Labour sources agree that losing Selby would be “totemic”, not just because Starmer would break a record, giving him even more momentum into a general election, but because of the psychology of what it does to Tory MPs.
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Why are these by-elections important?
Labour are touchy that the Conservatives have turned holding Selby into a victory given that the swing required to come even close to taking this seat in a general election – 17.9 per cent – is way beyond the swing Sir Keir needs to secure to win at the next general election.
“For Labour, I think expectation is that we will win Uxbridge and have to explain it if we don’t win,” says one senior Labour insider. “I think what is ludicrous is if people criticise us for not winning Selby. There are far too many Tory voters there, so if we take it will be big historically.
“But actually, it will be extraordinary if we run it close given the majority. The difference between losing by 10 and winning by 10 will be a big deal in terms of how the media cover it, but a strong second place puts us on track for winning it [with redrawn boundaries] at the general election.”
‘I think they are just running us into the ground’
Talk to Westminster insiders and the mood is that Somerton & Frome in the south west with a 19,000 Tory majority will go back to the Lib Dems. Uxbridge has been made more difficult to gauge due to the very live row about the Ultra Low Emission Zone air tariff being introduced by Labour mayor Sadiq Khan, which the Tories have grabbed to attack their opponents.
But when we visited Uxbridge this week, the overwhelming view from voters – even Conservative supporters – was for change.
Laura, an NHS nurse on maternity leave, told me that she didn’t believe the Conservatives could hold the seat.
“It can’t continue like this. I mean, it’s been a long time coming and I think they are just running us into the ground it seems.”
Anu, a Boris Johnson backer, and his partner Bijal, told me they were also considering going back to Labour having supported Mr Johnson in the past. “I think they’ve got quite a good chance,” Bijal told me. “We’re thinking, should we, should we flick the switch and go back to Labour?”
Meanwhile Mo, a hairdresser with her own salon just off the high street, was a Johnson backer, but now wants change as she struggles to keep her two-decade old business above water. “My shop was always full, but now we have to give more, people don’t know whether to spend their money.”
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What is a by-election?
Both Labour and the Tories tell me that they are picking up “real anger’ on the doorstep in Selby. One senior Conservative told me canvassing was like a “bin fire” with traditionally Conservative voters telling them they were not going to turn out, while a Labour source says the Tories have nothing to offer core or swing voters on the doorstep.
“There’s a cost of living crisis, taxes are up, none of the five pledges are being hit,” says one senior figure. “In Uxbridge, ULEZ at least gives some reason for voters to mobilise.
“Outside of that, what do they have to offer after 14 years? Cost of living crisis, high inflation, high interest rates, chaos at the borders, a broken NHS, sewage in our rivers and then you ask voters to give you another chance?”
‘Warriors against complacency’
For Labour, Thursday is another stepping stone on Sir Keir’s path to power. Whether he takes one or two of these seats – not winning any is not an option – he will frame this as another staging post to a Labour government.
The question really for Labour is whether they can call this a Blairite win. Three of the top four swings for Labour occurred before Tony Blair became PM, in by-elections in 1994, 1996, 1997. If Labour do win Selby then it would be allow Starmer to claim his party is performing at a level not seen since the Blair era.
They are taking nothing for granted, with one senior Starmer adviser telling me this week that the Labour leader describes himself and the inner team as “warriors against complacency”.
The latest symbol of his discipline was the decision to maintain the two child limit for child benefit, which sparked consternation within the party. “We want to fix problems to Tory benefit system and address child poverty but the country can’t afford it,” explains one senior insider.
“We can’t spend money we don’t have and that means taking tough choices. It’s helpful to have this out there before the National Policy Forum, where people think we are 20 points ahead and we have this big lead and we can do all sorts of things and that is toxic thinking, that is what loses elections.”
Labour insiders keep talking to me about the mis-steps in the 1992 general election campaign, when then shadow chancellor John Smith’s mini-budget said the better off would pay for higher pensions and child benefits. The plan blew up, spectacularly, in his face, lending itself to the Tories’ slogan ‘Labour’s tax bombshell’ as John Major edged victory. There will be no re-run of that. “We are going to do nothing to lose focus or discipline.”
Losing Uxbridge would hurt the Tories, but with a majority of around 7,000, a defeat here is not worse than other defeats in this parliament. Selby is another matter. If it turns red, the psychological damage to Mr Sunak and his party will be immense.
Donald Trump has acted for his country and I will act in Britain’s interests, Sir Keir Starmer has said after the US president imposed 10% tariffs on UK goods.
The prime minister told business chiefs at an early morning meeting in Downing Street: “Last night the president of the United States acted for his country, and that is his mandate.
“Today, I will act in Britain’s interests with mine.”
Politics latest: Starmer says UK will react to tariffs with ‘cool and calm head’
Mr Trump announced sweeping tariffs on countries around the world, with the UK getting off relatively lightly with 10% tariffs – branded “kind reciprocal” by the president – compared with China, which will have to pay 54% tariffs and 20% for the EU.
A previously announced 25% tariff on British car imports to the US came into effect at 5am on Thursday.
Sir Keir said the government is moving “to the next stage of our plan” after negotiations failed to fend off any tariffs ahead of Wednesday’s announcement.
He promised any decisions “will be guided only by our national interest, in the interests of our economy, in the interests of businesses around this table, in the interests of putting money in the pockets of working people”.
Sir Keir Starmer hosted business leaders in Downing Street on Thursday morning. Pic: Simon Dawson/No 10 Downing Street
“Clearly, there will be an economic impact from the decisions the US has taken, both here and globally,” he told the business leaders.
“But I want to be crystal clear: we are prepared, indeed one of the great strengths of this nation is our ability to keep a cool head.”
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told the Commons on Thursday the government is considering retaliatory measures and requested British businesses let him know what the tariff implications will be for them.
An “indicative list of potential products” that could be targeted was later published, with 8,364 categories covering about 27% of UK imports from the US.
Earlier, Mr Reynolds told Wilfred Frost on Sky News Breakfast his “job is not done” when it comes to negotiating a trade deal
Mr Reynolds refused to say if the tariffs might cause a global recession and said the UK has safeguards in place to ensure it is not flooded with goods that would have gone to other countries.
“We’ll take any powers we need to protect the British people and the British economy from that,” he said.
“What we have directly within our power, alongside that is, of course, the ability to negotiate a better deal in the national interest for the UK. That’s been our approach to date and we’ll continue with that.”
Read more:
World reacts to Trump’s tariff announcement
Tariffs will have consequences for globalisation, the US economy and geopolitics
Trump’s tariffs explained
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Moment Trump unveils tariffs chart
UK will be template for other nations’ deals
The business secretary also suggested if the UK is successful in negotiating a deal with the US “there’ll be a template there” for other countries to “resolve some of these issues”.
He reiterated statements he and the PM have made over the past few days as he said: “America is a friend, America’s our principal ally.
“Our relationship is an incredibly strong economic one, but also a security one, a political one as well.”
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Sky’s Ed Conway examines how economies across the world are impacted by tariffs
Government ‘very slow’ to start talks
Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Sky News the government had been “very slow” to start negotiating a free trade agreement with the US, and they should have started when Mr Trump was elected in November, even though he did not get sworn in until the end of January.
He said the UK being hit by a lower tariff than the EU was “one of the benefits of Brexit”.
However, he said the 25% tariff on car exports to the US is “very, very serious” and the global impact is “bad news for our economy”.
The list has landed.
More than 400 pages of thousands of goods that could be affected by reciprocal tariffs against the US.
Everything from fresh domestic ducks to sea-going dredgers makes the cut; most symbolic, however, are iconic American items like jeans, motorcycles and whiskey.
Would Donald Trump stand for a levy on Levi’s? It’s not the first time this battle has played out.
When the US president announced tariffs on steel and aluminium in his first term, the EU responded with its own – including a symbolic 25% tax on American whiskey.
At the time, the UK, then an EU member, followed suit.
But as the UK tries to carve its own path outside the bloc, vindicated by the baseline 10% tariffs imposed instead of the EU’s rate of 20%, the aim is to avoid retaliation.
The government want us to know “all options are on the table” – but that is not how they want this to play out.
“This is not a short-term tactical exercise,” the prime minister said this morning.
Despite the business secretary’s best efforts during his recent trip to Washington to try to secure a UK tariffs carveout, no deal was reached in time.
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How will tariffs hit working people?
Mr Trump wanted his big bang, board brandishing moment; carveouts for certain countries would have softened the impact of his speech.
But with 90-plus countries on the tariff billboard, how far along the queue is any UK deal?
And how much are we willing to give? Will the sensitive subject of chlorinated chicken be on the table? What of the agreement to cut taxes on big tech companies that Mr Trump wants?
Lots of questions. The day after the surreal night before is too soon to know all the answers, but this is about politics as much as it is about economics.
Read more:
There were no winners from Trump’s tariff gameshow
Do Trump’s numbers on tariffs really add up?
As the prime minister launched Labour’s local election campaign in Derbyshire today, he talked about potholes, high streets and school meals. Every question I heard was about tariffs.
Decisions made across the Atlantic are looming large. Tariffs may not directly sway many votes in the local elections, but the consequences for Rachel Reeves’s fiscal headroom and the amount of money she has to spend, or save, will have an impact before too long.
Politics
Woman whose son Martyn Hett died in Manchester Arena terror attack welcomes new law in his name
There is a certain steel about a mother who has lost a child.
It’s hard to put your finger on, but perhaps after going through hell you re-emerge made of a different material to the rest of us.
Figen Murray has been utterly relentless after her son Martyn Hett was killed in the Manchester Arena terror attack at an Ariana Grande concert in May 2017.
When she worried that politicians’ support was wavering last year, she walked 200 miles from the place Martyn died to Downing Street – and needed a hip replacement after.
And on Thursday, Martyn’s Law – rules to better train staff and safeguard venues against terrorists – was passed by royal assent, finally becoming law.
I sat down with Figen just before she went into Number 10 Downing Street to meet the prime minister, and she told me after six years of campaigning, the moment “feels surreal”.
She continued: “The Manchester attack was a wake up call. But it also made question, who are these people who do these things? Why are they doing it? What are governments doing about it? And I realised the only way I could get the answers was to educate myself – so I did a masters in counter-terrorism.
“I’ve recognised that people were radicalised. When you were a newborn baby, you were innocent but somebody poisoned your mind.
“There are people who try to groom young people into their ideology, and I want them to recognise where these people operate, the tricks they use, the things they say and how they can recognise themselves or others in the process of being radicalised and how to get out.”
Martyn Hett
She also supports the initiative to show the Netflix drama Adolescence in schools: “I think it’s absolutely important that young people see that programme and they learn more about it. It’s a good thing and I’m hoping they’re taking it further.”
There will be a debate – certainly – about the financial impact the legislation will have on venues, but the legislation has been welcomed by safety campaigners.
Emma Kay, co-founder of personal safety app WalkSafe which geo-fences events and stadiums, said: “The passing of Martyn’s Law is hugely progressive move that will keep young people safe on nights out.
“Our research has shown that 63% of women prefer to visit venues with safety initiatives in place. People want safer experiences and to know their friends and loved ones arrive home safely.”
Read more:
Martyn’s Law: Terrorism response bill named after Manchester Arena bombing victim becomes law
When I sat down with Figen, I asked her how Martyn would feel today.
“Knowing Martyn, the party animal he was, he’d throw the biggest party ever,” she said.
“He was full of life and lived life not just at 100 miles an hour, but 200 miles an hour.
“You would definitely know when he came through the door, and he had an incredible ability to make everyone feel that they are the most important person in that moment in his life. And I really miss that.”
You can watch Sophy Ridge’s full interview with Figen Murray on the Politics Hub at 1900 on Sky News.
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