‘We’re in the death throes and I can’t quite see a way forward’: Tories face prospect of a triple by-election defeat

Published

2 years ago

July 19, 2023

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Selby in Yorkshire, Somerton in the south west and Uxbridge in the London suburbs: from rural to town, from north to south – the three by-elections up this Thursday will tell a bigger story of the state of our politics, with records up for grabs.

In these three seats – and the prospect of at least two more additional by-elections to come in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth – there is so much trepidation for all of those politicians in play, but undoubtedly in the spotlight is the struggling prime minister, Rishi Sunak.

For a governing party, mid-term elections are never comfortable, but this particular set could cast the dye on his troubled premiership. Three by-elections in one day from a disparate set of battlegrounds and the Tories are bracing to lose all three.

That would make Mr Sunak a record breaker in unwelcome ways. He’d be first PM since Labour’s Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three by-elections in a single day and he’d suffer the ignominy of being the PM that saw Labour overturn the biggest Tory majority in a by-election on record, should it flip a 20,137 majority to win Selby. A lot is at stake.

Labour win in Selby would be ‘totemic’

Labour say Selby hangs in the balance, while one senior Tory – not trying to spin – tells me that while Conservative Campaign Headquarters thinks there’s a chance the Tories will hold on in Selby, they think the party will lose all three.

“We’re in the death throes and I can’t quite see a way forward and they are stuck managing defeat,” says one former cabinet minister. “[Sunak’s] an unlucky general. Every time he makes a announcement something else blows up, now they are working on the hope that they only have one term in opposition.”

But Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat. If Labour wins that, who’s to say they can’t gain the 124 seats they need for a Westminster majority?

Labour sources agree that losing Selby would be “totemic”, not just because Starmer would break a record, giving him even more momentum into a general election, but because of the psychology of what it does to Tory MPs.

Labour are touchy that the Conservatives have turned holding Selby into a victory given that the swing required to come even close to taking this seat in a general election – 17.9 per cent – is way beyond the swing Sir Keir needs to secure to win at the next general election.

“For Labour, I think expectation is that we will win Uxbridge and have to explain it if we don’t win,” says one senior Labour insider. “I think what is ludicrous is if people criticise us for not winning Selby. There are far too many Tory voters there, so if we take it will be big historically.

“But actually, it will be extraordinary if we run it close given the majority. The difference between losing by 10 and winning by 10 will be a big deal in terms of how the media cover it, but a strong second place puts us on track for winning it [with redrawn boundaries] at the general election.”

‘I think they are just running us into the ground’

Talk to Westminster insiders and the mood is that Somerton & Frome in the south west with a 19,000 Tory majority will go back to the Lib Dems. Uxbridge has been made more difficult to gauge due to the very live row about the Ultra Low Emission Zone air tariff being introduced by Labour mayor Sadiq Khan, which the Tories have grabbed to attack their opponents.

But when we visited Uxbridge this week, the overwhelming view from voters – even Conservative supporters – was for change.

Laura, an NHS nurse on maternity leave, told me that she didn’t believe the Conservatives could hold the seat.

“It can’t continue like this. I mean, it’s been a long time coming and I think they are just running us into the ground it seems.”

Anu, a Boris Johnson backer, and his partner Bijal, told me they were also considering going back to Labour having supported Mr Johnson in the past. “I think they’ve got quite a good chance,” Bijal told me. “We’re thinking, should we, should we flick the switch and go back to Labour?”

Meanwhile Mo, a hairdresser with her own salon just off the high street, was a Johnson backer, but now wants change as she struggles to keep her two-decade old business above water. “My shop was always full, but now we have to give more, people don’t know whether to spend their money.”

Both Labour and the Tories tell me that they are picking up “real anger’ on the doorstep in Selby. One senior Conservative told me canvassing was like a “bin fire” with traditionally Conservative voters telling them they were not going to turn out, while a Labour source says the Tories have nothing to offer core or swing voters on the doorstep.

“There’s a cost of living crisis, taxes are up, none of the five pledges are being hit,” says one senior figure. “In Uxbridge, ULEZ at least gives some reason for voters to mobilise.

“Outside of that, what do they have to offer after 14 years? Cost of living crisis, high inflation, high interest rates, chaos at the borders, a broken NHS, sewage in our rivers and then you ask voters to give you another chance?”

‘Warriors against complacency’

For Labour, Thursday is another stepping stone on Sir Keir’s path to power. Whether he takes one or two of these seats – not winning any is not an option – he will frame this as another staging post to a Labour government.

The question really for Labour is whether they can call this a Blairite win. Three of the top four swings for Labour occurred before Tony Blair became PM, in by-elections in 1994, 1996, 1997. If Labour do win Selby then it would be allow Starmer to claim his party is performing at a level not seen since the Blair era.

They are taking nothing for granted, with one senior Starmer adviser telling me this week that the Labour leader describes himself and the inner team as “warriors against complacency”.

The latest symbol of his discipline was the decision to maintain the two child limit for child benefit, which sparked consternation within the party. “We want to fix problems to Tory benefit system and address child poverty but the country can’t afford it,” explains one senior insider.

“We can’t spend money we don’t have and that means taking tough choices. It’s helpful to have this out there before the National Policy Forum, where people think we are 20 points ahead and we have this big lead and we can do all sorts of things and that is toxic thinking, that is what loses elections.”

Labour insiders keep talking to me about the mis-steps in the 1992 general election campaign, when then shadow chancellor John Smith’s mini-budget said the better off would pay for higher pensions and child benefits. The plan blew up, spectacularly, in his face, lending itself to the Tories’ slogan ‘Labour’s tax bombshell’ as John Major edged victory. There will be no re-run of that. “We are going to do nothing to lose focus or discipline.”

Losing Uxbridge would hurt the Tories, but with a majority of around 7,000, a defeat here is not worse than other defeats in this parliament. Selby is another matter. If it turns red, the psychological damage to Mr Sunak and his party will be immense.

Politics

BBC and Glastonbury have got questions to answer over ‘appalling’ chants at festival, says Wes Streeting

Published

3 hours ago

June 29, 2025

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BBC and Glastonbury have got questions to answer over 'appalling' chants at festival, says Wes Streeting

A cabinet minister has criticised chants at Glastonbury calling for “death to the IDF” – but has also told the Israeli embassy to “get your own house in order”.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting condemned the chants against the Israel Defence Forces – calling them “appalling” – but notably also criticised the embassy over the conduct of some Israeli citizens in the occupied West Bank.

Glastonbury Festival has said it is “appalled” by the statements made by Bobby Vylan, of punk duo Bob Vylan, during their set on Saturday – saying they “crossed a line”.

Politics latest: Welfare changes have ‘put us in a much better position’, says minister

Speaking to Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips, Mr Streeting said he believed the BBC and Glastonbury had “questions to answer” over what he called a “shameless publicity stunt” during the set of Bob Vylan.

“I thought it was appalling, to be honest and I think the BBC and Glastonbury have got questions to answer about how we saw such a spectacle on our screens,” he said.

“But I also think it’s a pretty shameless publicity stunt, which I don’t really want to give too much indulgence to for that reason.”

He said the focus should instead be on “Israeli settler terrorists” attacking a Christian village just weeks after setting it on fire.

He added: “I’d also say to the Israeli embassy, get your own house in order, in terms of the conduct of your own citizens and the settlers in the West Bank.

“So, you know, I think there’s a serious point there by the Israeli embassy, I take seriously. I wish they’d take the violence of their own citizens towards Palestinians more seriously.

“We all condemned and continue to condemn what happened on 7 October. We all want to see the return of the hostages. And there’s no justification for inciting violence against Israelis.

“But you know, the way in which Israel’s conducting this war has made it extremely difficult for Israel’s allies around the world to stand by and justify. In fact, we’ve got to do the opposite as an international community, which is to challenge and urge a change.”

The Israeli embassy said it was “deeply disturbed” by the anti-IDF chants, which are being investigated by the police.

Video shows one of the members of Bob Vylan shouting the slogan into the mic and some of the crowd joining in.

The duo were performing ahead of a performance by Kneecap, the Irish act the prime minister believed should have been banned from the world-famous festival.

“The Embassy of Israel in the United Kingdom is deeply disturbed by the inflammatory and hateful rhetoric expressed on stage at the Glastonbury Festival,” a statement said.

It said slogans like Saturday’s chant “advocate for the dismantling of the State of Israel”.

The Conservatives also criticised the incident, with Helen Whately, the shadow work and pensions secretary, saying she was “shocked” by the footage.

“I was shocked to see some of the footage of that chanting of the crowd,” she told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips.

“And the music artist was ramping it up.

“I mean to me, also, one of the horrible things about it is, obviously it’s over a year and a half ago that innocent, festivalgoers at a festival in Israel were raped and murdered by Hamas – and then we have a music festival here in the UK where you have a chant saying death to the Israeli Armed Forces who are, you know, taking action to protect people from what Hamas did in Israel.

“I just think it’s disgusting.”

She added: “Yes, I believe in free speech, but that was incitement to violence. It was incitement to kill. That is not something that we support in this country.”

An Instagram post published by the festival on Sunday morning read: “As a festival, we stand against all forms of war and terrorism. We will always believe in – and actively campaign for – hope, unity, peace and love.

“With almost 4,000 performances at Glastonbury 2025, there will inevitably be artists and speakers appearing on our stages whose views we do not share, and a performer’s presence here should never be seen as a tacit endorsement of their opinions and beliefs.

“However, we are appalled by the statements made from the West Holts stage by Bob Vylan yesterday.

“Their chants very much crossed a line and we are urgently reminding everyone involved in the production of the Festival that there is no place at Glastonbury for antisemitism, hate speech or incitement to violence.”

Politics

Binance ties to Kenyan crypto board raise monopoly concerns: Report

Published

5 hours ago

June 29, 2025

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Binance ties to Kenyan crypto board raise monopoly concerns: Report

Kenya’s crypto startups fear a Binance-linked lobby group could tilt new regulations in the exchange’s favor under the proposed VASP bill.

Politics

Welfare concessions should give people ‘peace of mind’, says Wes Streeting

Published

6 hours ago

June 29, 2025

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Welfare concessions should give people 'peace of mind', says Wes Streeting

Wes Streeting has suggested he is confident the government will now win a crunch vote on welfare cuts after Sir Keir Starmer made a number of concessions to prevent a damaging rebellion.

The health secretary told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips the alterations to the controversial welfare bill meant those in receipt of benefits now had “peace of mind”.

Asked whether he was confident the government would now win a vote on the reforms scheduled for Tuesday, Mr Streeting said: “Yes.

Politics latest: Minister tells Israeli embassy to ‘get your own house in order’ amid Glastonbury row

“I think the changes that were made this week have put us in a much better position, not just on the vote on Tuesday, but on the substance of the package – because as a result of the changes, it means anyone watching this morning who’s in receipt of PIP, Personal Independence Payments, now has the peace of mind of knowing that their situation is protected.”

It comes after the prime minister carried out the most significant U-turn of his premiership at the end of the week in order to quell a growing rebellion over his welfare package.

More than 120 Labour MPs had signalled they were prepared to vote down the bill next week after they signed an amendment that would have stopped its progress through parliament – citing concerns about the impact on the most vulnerable and the lack of proper consultation with disabled groups.

The scale of the rebellion – and the fact it spanned all wings of the party – alarmed Downing Street and led to Sir Keir making a number of changes to diffuse the anger.

Originally, the bill set out to tighten the eligibility criteria for PIP – money that is given to people, some of whom are in work, who have extra care or mobility needs as a result of a disability.

People who claim it are awarded points depending on their ability to do certain activities, such as washing and preparing food, which influences how much they will receive.

Currently claimants need to score a minimum of eight points across a range of tasks to qualify for the daily living element (there is a mobility element that is not affected by the plans). Under the new rules people will need to score a minimum of four points in at least one activity to qualify.

However, the changes made by Sir Keir mean existing PIP claimants will now be exempted from the stricter new criteria.

Alterations to Universal Credit, another type of benefit, mean that the health top-up will only be cut and frozen for new applications, as opposed to existing ones.

Mr Streeting declined to say whether he thought those who decide to vote against the bill should lose the party whip, which would force them to sit as an independent MP in the Commons.

He said it was “not my decision”, but added that there was an “expectation that Labour MPs vote for the whip”.

In a series of interviews over the weekend, the prime minister acknowledged there had been some mishandling of the welfare debate and said he was “heavily focused” on world affairs before he was forced to U-turn on his welfare bill.

In a piece in The Sunday Times, Sir Keir said he was occupied with the G7 and NATO summits and the escalating tensions in the Middle East for much of the past two weeks.

“Getting it right is more important than ploughing on with a package which doesn’t necessarily achieve the desired outcome,” he said, adding that all the decisions made were his and that “I take ownership of them”.