‘We’re in the death throes and I can’t quite see a way forward’: Tories face prospect of a triple by-election defeat
Selby in Yorkshire, Somerton in the south west and Uxbridge in the London suburbs: from rural to town, from north to south – the three by-elections up this Thursday will tell a bigger story of the state of our politics, with records up for grabs.
In these three seats – and the prospect of at least two more additional by-elections to come in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth – there is so much trepidation for all of those politicians in play, but undoubtedly in the spotlight is the struggling prime minister, Rishi Sunak.
For a governing party, mid-term elections are never comfortable, but this particular set could cast the dye on his troubled premiership. Three by-elections in one day from a disparate set of battlegrounds and the Tories are bracing to lose all three.
That would make Mr Sunak a record breaker in unwelcome ways. He’d be first PM since Labour’s Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three by-elections in a single day and he’d suffer the ignominy of being the PM that saw Labour overturn the biggest Tory majority in a by-election on record, should it flip a 20,137 majority to win Selby. A lot is at stake.
Read more: Everything you need to know about this week’s votes in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton
Labour win in Selby would be ‘totemic’
Labour say Selby hangs in the balance, while one senior Tory – not trying to spin – tells me that while Conservative Campaign Headquarters thinks there’s a chance the Tories will hold on in Selby, they think the party will lose all three.
“We’re in the death throes and I can’t quite see a way forward and they are stuck managing defeat,” says one former cabinet minister. “[Sunak’s] an unlucky general. Every time he makes a announcement something else blows up, now they are working on the hope that they only have one term in opposition.”
But Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat. If Labour wins that, who’s to say they can’t gain the 124 seats they need for a Westminster majority?
Labour sources agree that losing Selby would be “totemic”, not just because Starmer would break a record, giving him even more momentum into a general election, but because of the psychology of what it does to Tory MPs.
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Why are these by-elections important?
Labour are touchy that the Conservatives have turned holding Selby into a victory given that the swing required to come even close to taking this seat in a general election – 17.9 per cent – is way beyond the swing Sir Keir needs to secure to win at the next general election.
“For Labour, I think expectation is that we will win Uxbridge and have to explain it if we don’t win,” says one senior Labour insider. “I think what is ludicrous is if people criticise us for not winning Selby. There are far too many Tory voters there, so if we take it will be big historically.
“But actually, it will be extraordinary if we run it close given the majority. The difference between losing by 10 and winning by 10 will be a big deal in terms of how the media cover it, but a strong second place puts us on track for winning it [with redrawn boundaries] at the general election.”
‘I think they are just running us into the ground’
Talk to Westminster insiders and the mood is that Somerton & Frome in the south west with a 19,000 Tory majority will go back to the Lib Dems. Uxbridge has been made more difficult to gauge due to the very live row about the Ultra Low Emission Zone air tariff being introduced by Labour mayor Sadiq Khan, which the Tories have grabbed to attack their opponents.
But when we visited Uxbridge this week, the overwhelming view from voters – even Conservative supporters – was for change.
Laura, an NHS nurse on maternity leave, told me that she didn’t believe the Conservatives could hold the seat.
“It can’t continue like this. I mean, it’s been a long time coming and I think they are just running us into the ground it seems.”
Anu, a Boris Johnson backer, and his partner Bijal, told me they were also considering going back to Labour having supported Mr Johnson in the past. “I think they’ve got quite a good chance,” Bijal told me. “We’re thinking, should we, should we flick the switch and go back to Labour?”
Meanwhile Mo, a hairdresser with her own salon just off the high street, was a Johnson backer, but now wants change as she struggles to keep her two-decade old business above water. “My shop was always full, but now we have to give more, people don’t know whether to spend their money.”
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What is a by-election?
Both Labour and the Tories tell me that they are picking up “real anger’ on the doorstep in Selby. One senior Conservative told me canvassing was like a “bin fire” with traditionally Conservative voters telling them they were not going to turn out, while a Labour source says the Tories have nothing to offer core or swing voters on the doorstep.
“There’s a cost of living crisis, taxes are up, none of the five pledges are being hit,” says one senior figure. “In Uxbridge, ULEZ at least gives some reason for voters to mobilise.
“Outside of that, what do they have to offer after 14 years? Cost of living crisis, high inflation, high interest rates, chaos at the borders, a broken NHS, sewage in our rivers and then you ask voters to give you another chance?”
‘Warriors against complacency’
For Labour, Thursday is another stepping stone on Sir Keir’s path to power. Whether he takes one or two of these seats – not winning any is not an option – he will frame this as another staging post to a Labour government.
The question really for Labour is whether they can call this a Blairite win. Three of the top four swings for Labour occurred before Tony Blair became PM, in by-elections in 1994, 1996, 1997. If Labour do win Selby then it would be allow Starmer to claim his party is performing at a level not seen since the Blair era.
They are taking nothing for granted, with one senior Starmer adviser telling me this week that the Labour leader describes himself and the inner team as “warriors against complacency”.
The latest symbol of his discipline was the decision to maintain the two child limit for child benefit, which sparked consternation within the party. “We want to fix problems to Tory benefit system and address child poverty but the country can’t afford it,” explains one senior insider.
“We can’t spend money we don’t have and that means taking tough choices. It’s helpful to have this out there before the National Policy Forum, where people think we are 20 points ahead and we have this big lead and we can do all sorts of things and that is toxic thinking, that is what loses elections.”
Labour insiders keep talking to me about the mis-steps in the 1992 general election campaign, when then shadow chancellor John Smith’s mini-budget said the better off would pay for higher pensions and child benefits. The plan blew up, spectacularly, in his face, lending itself to the Tories’ slogan ‘Labour’s tax bombshell’ as John Major edged victory. There will be no re-run of that. “We are going to do nothing to lose focus or discipline.”
Losing Uxbridge would hurt the Tories, but with a majority of around 7,000, a defeat here is not worse than other defeats in this parliament. Selby is another matter. If it turns red, the psychological damage to Mr Sunak and his party will be immense.
Politics
JD Vance warns against UK going down ‘dark path’ of losing free speech during meeting with David Lammy
JD Vance has said he does not want the UK to go down a “very dark path” of losing free speech during a meeting with the foreign secretary at his country estate.
The US vice president has previously raised concerns that free speech is being eroded in the UK.
However, during a two-day visit to David Lammy’s grace and favour 115-room mansion, Chevening House in Kent, Mr Vance kept his criticism a bit more low key.
Asked about free speech in the UK during a televised meeting of the two men, Mr Vance said he has “raised concerns” about free speech in his own country and accused the West of “censoring rather than engaging” with different opinions.
He said: “I think the entire collective West, the transatlantic relationship, our NATO allies, certainly the United States under the Biden administration, got a little too comfortable with censoring rather than engaging with a diverse array of opinions. So that’s been my view.
“Obviously, I’ve raised some criticism, concerns about our friends on this side of the Atlantic.
“But the thing that I’d say to the people of England or anybody else, to David, is many of the things that I worry most about were happening in the United States from 2020 to 2024.
“I just don’t want other countries to follow us down what I think was a very dark path under the Biden administration.”
Mr Lammy, who has struck up the unlikely relationship over the past few months, did not comment on Mr Vance’s indirect criticism.
The two politicians went fishing on the Chevening estate. Pic: Reuters
Mr Vance revealed he caught a few fish but Mr Lammy was not so successful. Pic: Reuters
In February, when Sir Keir Starmer was carrying out a similar televised meeting with Donald Trump in the Oval Office, Mr Vance said “infringements on free speech” now do not just affect the British, but also American tech companies – “and by extension American citizens”.
Sir Keir quickly interjected, saying: “We’ve had free speech for a very long time, it will last a long time, and we are very proud of that.”
Mr Vance and his family are staying with Mr Lammy at Chevening for two days before heading to the Cotswolds for a summer holiday.
The vice president was effusive in his praise for the grand estate that comes with Mr Lammy’s job, saying “being here lifts up the human spirit” as he thanked the “people of England” for having such a “beautiful place for foreigners like me to come and talk about the issues of the day”.
He added that he “loves the UK”.
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The two politicians went fishing ahead of their meeting, with Mr Vance revealing he caught a few, while all three of his children caught a fish but Mr Lammy did not.
He also said his children had fallen asleep on the floor of the large house, and his three-year-old daughter kept asking if she would see Mr Lammy’s daughter.
Mr Lammy posted a picture of him and Mr Vance laughing as they fished, saying it was a “real pleasure” to welcome the Vance family and the vice president “gave me fishing tips, Kentucky style”.
JD Vance confirmed he will holiday in Scotland next week in a trip that could see up to 1,000 police officers deployed as part of security efforts.
He confirmed his Scottish trip during talks with Mr Lammy on Friday.
Sky News understands the Vance family are likely to visit Ayrshire, the same area where Mr Trump recently stayed where he secured a trade deal with the European Union.
Police sources have suggested approximately 1,000 officers will be working across the visit to ensure the vice president and his loved ones are safe, Sky News’ Scotland correspondent Conner Gillies reported.
Police Scotland declined to comment on the specifics.
It is understood the Vance family will not be staying at Trump Turnberry, the luxury Ayrshire resort owned by the US president himself.
A Police Scotland spokesperson said: “Planning is under way for a potential visit to Scotland by the vice president of the United States.
“Details of any visit would be for the White House to comment on, however it is important that we prepare in advance for what would be a significant policing operation.”
Ukraine has had some regulatory starts and stops when it comes to crypto, though momentum for a regulatory bill has picked up since 2024.
MP Rupert Lowe alerted the coastguard to potential migrants on a boat – who turned out to be a charity rowing crew.
The independent Great Yarmouth MP posted a picture on social media on Thursday night of a boat near some wind turbines off the Norfolk Coast, saying he had alerted the authorities.
He wrote dinghies were coming into Great Yarmouth, “RIGHT NOW”.
“If these are illegal migrants, I will be using every tool at my disposal to ensure those individuals are deported,” he added.
Politics latest: Lammy to meet US vice president in UK
But the “dinghy” was actually an ocean rowing boat crewed by ROW4MND, a team of four attempting to row from Land’s End to John O’Groats for motor neurone disease research.
Rupert Lowe MP. Pic: PA
Mr Lowe, who was suspended from Reform UK in March, posted on Friday morning that it was a “false alarm” and was a boat of charity rowers, “thank goodness”.
He said he would donate £1,000 to their charity “as a well done” – but warned people to “watch out for any real illegal migrants”.
“We received a huge number of urgent complaints from constituents – I make no apologies over being vigilant for my constituents. It is a national crisis,” he wrote.
“No mass deportations for the charity rowers, but we definitely need it for the illegal migrants!”
The ROW4MND crew were passing Great Yarmouth on their way to John O’Groats. Pic: PA
Police wanted to send a boat to check
It is the first of four gruelling rows the crew will take over four years in an attempt to raise £57m for motor neurone disease research, inspired by the deaths of rugby players Rob Burrow and Doddie Weir from the condition.
Matthew Parker, Mike Bates, Aaron Kneebone and Liz Wardley said the coastguard initially contacted them and asked if they could see a dinghy nearby.
Ex-Royal Marine Mr Bates, a British record holder for rowing across the Atlantic solo, said it soon became clear the coastguard was asking about their boat.
“I looked to my right and there was maybe a dozen individuals stood on the shoreline staring at us,” he told the PA news agency.
After the coastguard accepted they were not carrying migrants, they rowed on through the night but hours later were contacted again by the coastguard because the police had “asked if they could send a lifeboat out to check who we were”.
The crew leaving Newlyn Harbour in Cornwall last week after starting their challenge again. Pic: PA
‘I’ve not been mistaken for a migrant before’
A friend then forwarded Mr Lowe’s post, which Mr Bates said was “a moment of light relief”.
“We found it hilarious. I’ve not been mistaken for a migrant before,” he said.
“The best comment was the one asking where the Royal Navy were when you need them. I’m a former Royal Marine, so the Royal Navy were on the boat.
“But it was almost like a vigilante-style, people following us down the beach.
“They hadn’t twigged that we were parallel to the shore for hours and not trying to land.”
Read more:
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Gruelling four-year challenge
The crew set off from Land’s End on 25 July, heading north, but bad weather forced them to stop, and they decided to return to Land’s End and start again, heading anticlockwise around the UK.
Next year, the team is hoping to row from John O’Groats to Land’s End, then from California to Hawaii in 2027 and New York to London in 2028.
Mr Bates said: “We’re rowing for hope, we’re rowing to find a cure, and hopefully we’ll raise £57m – we certainly will if MPs keep talking about us. Maybe Rupert will give us a donation.”
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