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Selby in Yorkshire, Somerton in the south west and Uxbridge in the London suburbs: from rural to town, from north to south – the three by-elections up this Thursday will tell a bigger story of the state of our politics, with records up for grabs.

In these three seats – and the prospect of at least two more additional by-elections to come in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth – there is so much trepidation for all of those politicians in play, but undoubtedly in the spotlight is the struggling prime minister, Rishi Sunak.

For a governing party, mid-term elections are never comfortable, but this particular set could cast the dye on his troubled premiership. Three by-elections in one day from a disparate set of battlegrounds and the Tories are bracing to lose all three.

That would make Mr Sunak a record breaker in unwelcome ways. He’d be first PM since Labour’s Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three by-elections in a single day and he’d suffer the ignominy of being the PM that saw Labour overturn the biggest Tory majority in a by-election on record, should it flip a 20,137 majority to win Selby. A lot is at stake.

Read more: Everything you need to know about this week’s votes in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton

Labour win in Selby would be ‘totemic’

Labour say Selby hangs in the balance, while one senior Tory – not trying to spin – tells me that while Conservative Campaign Headquarters thinks there’s a chance the Tories will hold on in Selby, they think the party will lose all three.

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“We’re in the death throes and I can’t quite see a way forward and they are stuck managing defeat,” says one former cabinet minister. “[Sunak’s] an unlucky general. Every time he makes a announcement something else blows up, now they are working on the hope that they only have one term in opposition.”

But Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat. If Labour wins that, who’s to say they can’t gain the 124 seats they need for a Westminster majority?

Labour sources agree that losing Selby would be “totemic”, not just because Starmer would break a record, giving him even more momentum into a general election, but because of the psychology of what it does to Tory MPs.

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Why are these by-elections important?

Labour are touchy that the Conservatives have turned holding Selby into a victory given that the swing required to come even close to taking this seat in a general election – 17.9 per cent – is way beyond the swing Sir Keir needs to secure to win at the next general election.

“For Labour, I think expectation is that we will win Uxbridge and have to explain it if we don’t win,” says one senior Labour insider. “I think what is ludicrous is if people criticise us for not winning Selby. There are far too many Tory voters there, so if we take it will be big historically.

“But actually, it will be extraordinary if we run it close given the majority. The difference between losing by 10 and winning by 10 will be a big deal in terms of how the media cover it, but a strong second place puts us on track for winning it [with redrawn boundaries] at the general election.”

‘I think they are just running us into the ground’

Talk to Westminster insiders and the mood is that Somerton & Frome in the south west with a 19,000 Tory majority will go back to the Lib Dems. Uxbridge has been made more difficult to gauge due to the very live row about the Ultra Low Emission Zone air tariff being introduced by Labour mayor Sadiq Khan, which the Tories have grabbed to attack their opponents.

But when we visited Uxbridge this week, the overwhelming view from voters – even Conservative supporters – was for change.

Laura, an NHS nurse on maternity leave, told me that she didn’t believe the Conservatives could hold the seat.

“It can’t continue like this. I mean, it’s been a long time coming and I think they are just running us into the ground it seems.”

Anu, a Boris Johnson backer, and his partner Bijal, told me they were also considering going back to Labour having supported Mr Johnson in the past. “I think they’ve got quite a good chance,” Bijal told me. “We’re thinking, should we, should we flick the switch and go back to Labour?”

Meanwhile Mo, a hairdresser with her own salon just off the high street, was a Johnson backer, but now wants change as she struggles to keep her two-decade old business above water. “My shop was always full, but now we have to give more, people don’t know whether to spend their money.”

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What is a by-election?

Both Labour and the Tories tell me that they are picking up “real anger’ on the doorstep in Selby. One senior Conservative told me canvassing was like a “bin fire” with traditionally Conservative voters telling them they were not going to turn out, while a Labour source says the Tories have nothing to offer core or swing voters on the doorstep.

“There’s a cost of living crisis, taxes are up, none of the five pledges are being hit,” says one senior figure. “In Uxbridge, ULEZ at least gives some reason for voters to mobilise.

“Outside of that, what do they have to offer after 14 years? Cost of living crisis, high inflation, high interest rates, chaos at the borders, a broken NHS, sewage in our rivers and then you ask voters to give you another chance?”

‘Warriors against complacency’

For Labour, Thursday is another stepping stone on Sir Keir’s path to power. Whether he takes one or two of these seats – not winning any is not an option – he will frame this as another staging post to a Labour government.

The question really for Labour is whether they can call this a Blairite win. Three of the top four swings for Labour occurred before Tony Blair became PM, in by-elections in 1994, 1996, 1997. If Labour do win Selby then it would be allow Starmer to claim his party is performing at a level not seen since the Blair era.

They are taking nothing for granted, with one senior Starmer adviser telling me this week that the Labour leader describes himself and the inner team as “warriors against complacency”.

The latest symbol of his discipline was the decision to maintain the two child limit for child benefit, which sparked consternation within the party. “We want to fix problems to Tory benefit system and address child poverty but the country can’t afford it,” explains one senior insider.

“We can’t spend money we don’t have and that means taking tough choices. It’s helpful to have this out there before the National Policy Forum, where people think we are 20 points ahead and we have this big lead and we can do all sorts of things and that is toxic thinking, that is what loses elections.”

Labour insiders keep talking to me about the mis-steps in the 1992 general election campaign, when then shadow chancellor John Smith’s mini-budget said the better off would pay for higher pensions and child benefits. The plan blew up, spectacularly, in his face, lending itself to the Tories’ slogan ‘Labour’s tax bombshell’ as John Major edged victory. There will be no re-run of that. “We are going to do nothing to lose focus or discipline.”

Losing Uxbridge would hurt the Tories, but with a majority of around 7,000, a defeat here is not worse than other defeats in this parliament. Selby is another matter. If it turns red, the psychological damage to Mr Sunak and his party will be immense.

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Concessions to welfare reforms to be revealed after Labour backbench rebellion forces government retreat

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Concessions to welfare reforms to be revealed after Labour backbench rebellion forces government retreat

Changes to welfare reforms, forced on the government by rebel Labour MPs, are being revealed today ahead of a crucial vote.

The original bill restricted eligibility for the personal independence payment (pip) and cut the health-related element of universal credit (UC).

The government, which insisted welfare costs were becoming unsustainable, was forced into a U-turn after 126 Labour backbenchers signed an amendment that would have halted the bill at its first Commons hurdle.

Explainer: What are the welfare concessions?

While the amendment is expected to be withdrawn, after changes that appeased some Labour MPs, others are still unhappy and considering backing a similar amendment to be tabled today.

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Starmer defends welfare U-turn

Here are the main changes to the UC and pip bill:

• current pip claimants will keep their benefits; stricter eligibility requirements will only apply to new claims from November 2026
• a review of the pip assessment, which will have input from disabled people
• existing recipients of the health-related element of UC will have their incomes protected in real terms

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Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said in a statement that the legislation now aims to deliver a “fairer, more compassionate system” ahead of the second reading and vote on Tuesday.

“We must build a welfare system that provides security for those who cannot work and the right support for those who can. Too often, disabled people feel trapped, worried that if they try to work, they could lose the support they depend on.

“That is why we are taking action to remove those barriers, support disabled people to live with dignity and independence, and open routes into employment for those who want to pursue it.

“This is about delivering a fairer, more compassionate system as part of our Plan for Change which supports people to thrive, whatever their circumstances.”

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall
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Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall insists welfare reforms will create ‘a fairer, more compassionate system’. Pic: PA

On Saturday, Sir Keir Starmer said fixing the UK’s welfare system was a “moral imperative”. The government claimed cuts to sickness and disability benefits would shave £5bn off the welfare bill and get more people into work.

The Resolution Foundation believes the concessions could cost as much as £3bn, while the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that the changes make tax rises more likely.

Read more:
Starmer’s most damaging U-turn yet
Liz Kendall defends welfare retreat

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Health Secretary Wes Streeting told Sky News that welfare bill changes have put Labour in a much better position ahead of tomorrow’s vote.

On Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Streeting said: “There were things that we didn’t get right, we’ve put right, and there’ll be a debate about future amendments and things, I’m sure, as it goes through in the usual way.”

Streeting talking to Trevor Phillips
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Talking to Sky News about the welfare reforms, Health Secretary Wes Streeting said there were things Labour ‘didn’t get right’

On the same programme, shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately repeatedly refused to say whether the Conservatives would back the bill, but would review the proposals after the minister’s statement later.

“We have said that if there are more savings that actually bring the welfare bill down, if they’ll get more people into work, and if they commit to using the savings to avoid tax cuts in the autumn, which looks highly unlikely at the moment, then they have our support.”

The Liberal Democrats plan to vote against the bill and have called for the government to speed up access-to-work decisions to help people enter the workforce.

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Welfare concessions should give people ‘peace of mind’, says Wes Streeting

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Welfare concessions should give people 'peace of mind', says Wes Streeting

Wes Streeting has suggested he is confident the government will now win a crunch vote on welfare cuts after Sir Keir Starmer made a number of concessions to prevent a damaging rebellion.

The health secretary told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips the alterations to the controversial welfare bill meant those in receipt of benefits now had “peace of mind”.

Asked whether he was confident the government would now win a vote on the reforms scheduled for Tuesday, Mr Streeting said: “Yes.

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“I think the changes that were made this week have put us in a much better position, not just on the vote on Tuesday, but on the substance of the package – because as a result of the changes, it means anyone watching this morning who’s in receipt of PIP, Personal Independence Payments, now has the peace of mind of knowing that their situation is protected.”

It comes after the prime minister carried out the most significant U-turn of his premiership at the end of the week in order to quell a growing rebellion over his welfare package.

More than 120 Labour MPs had signalled they were prepared to vote down the bill next week after they signed an amendment that would have stopped its progress through parliament – citing concerns about the impact on the most vulnerable and the lack of proper consultation with disabled groups.

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The scale of the rebellion – and the fact it spanned all wings of the party – alarmed Downing Street and led to Sir Keir making a number of changes to diffuse the anger.

Originally, the bill set out to tighten the eligibility criteria for PIP – money that is given to people, some of whom are in work, who have extra care or mobility needs as a result of a disability.

People who claim it are awarded points depending on their ability to do certain activities, such as washing and preparing food, which influences how much they will receive.

Currently claimants need to score a minimum of eight points across a range of tasks to qualify for the daily living element (there is a mobility element that is not affected by the plans). Under the new rules people will need to score a minimum of four points in at least one activity to qualify.

However, the changes made by Sir Keir mean existing PIP claimants will now be exempted from the stricter new criteria.

Alterations to Universal Credit, another type of benefit, mean that the health top-up will only be cut and frozen for new applications, as opposed to existing ones.

Read more:
What are the concessions to the welfare bill – and will MPs back it?
Welfare has been Starmer’s most damaging U-turn yet

Mr Streeting declined to say whether he thought those who decide to vote against the bill should lose the party whip, which would force them to sit as an independent MP in the Commons.

He said it was “not my decision”, but added that there was an “expectation that Labour MPs vote for the whip”.

In a series of interviews over the weekend, the prime minister acknowledged there had been some mishandling of the welfare debate and said he was “heavily focused” on world affairs before he was forced to U-turn on his welfare bill.

In a piece in The Sunday Times, Sir Keir said he was occupied with the G7 and NATO summits and the escalating tensions in the Middle East for much of the past two weeks.

“Getting it right is more important than ploughing on with a package which doesn’t necessarily achieve the desired outcome,” he said, adding that all the decisions made were his and that “I take ownership of them”.

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PM and ministers now admit welfare reforms went too far

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PM and ministers now admit welfare reforms went too far

It was only 10 days ago that embattled Welfare Secretary Liz Kendall, trying to convince MPs to back her reforms, said ministers were “firm in our convictions”.

People on Personal Independence Payments (PIP) and universal credit were too often being “written off”, while the welfare bill was becoming unsustainable.

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After an unprecedented rebellion by Labour MPs forced the prime minister into a significant retreat, today sees an interesting shift in those convictions.

Ms Kendall’s colleague Wes Streeting, who was drafted onto calls with angry backbenchers, tells Sky News he didn’t want disabled people in his constituency surgeries on a Friday, telling him they were worse off when that was not the intention.

This is exactly what many Labour MPs and disability groups were arguing was inevitable if current claimants were stripped of their benefits.

Sir Keir Starmer, in a series of Sunday newspaper interviews in which he reflects on mistakes, says he now believes there was no point ploughing ahead with something which “doesn’t necessarily achieve the desired outcome”.

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What are the concessions to the welfare bill – and will MPs back it?

Having rushed forward these reforms to save £5bn in the spending review, it now seems ministers are admitting the package needed more thought.

The welfare bill is rising sharply, and many voters broadly support the idea of tackling it.

But even if the draft legislation, which will affect new benefit claimants only, is voted through (and that’s still an “if'”, with dozens of Labour MPs still weighing it up), this debacle – for many MPs at least – goes to the heart of whose side the government is on.

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