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As the MLB trade deadline approaches, the decision to add or subtract from a team is usually made by the standings.

Every year, however, there are bubble teams that are close to the playoff race but haven’t necessarily proved themselves in the win/loss column, leaving their front offices with a tougher decision to make.

ESPN has identified eight such teams, and with the Aug. 1 deadline exactly two weeks away, time is running out.

“They’re really making decisions the last weekend before the trade deadline,” Philadelphia Phillies president Dave Dombrowski said. “You wait as long as you can.

“You always want to make the playoffs because once you make it, we know anything can happen. However, and I’m just speaking for me, you have to be realistic with yourself. Do you have a club that’s good enough to advance, or in your heart, do you really not feel that way? It’s an important distinction.”

Adding to the challenge this season is the fact that the first-place team in the AL Central is hovering around .500, while the last-place team in the AL East is six games over. That will undoubtedly lead to varying degrees of going for it or electing to trade away veterans. And, according to Dombrowski, it makes it even more important for front-office decision-makers to understand their own team’s circumstances rather than relying just on a number of games they trail in the standings.

“Every market is different,” he said. “Every owner is different. Every team is different. You’re not the unilateral decision-maker. What happens if you’re with a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 10 years? That can be huge. That can be different than a team that’s in it all the time but is having a down year.”

With all that in mind, ESPN employed the services of a current MLB assistant general manager (whose team is not on the bubble) to help decide the fate of our eight bubble teams. Here’s his take.


Minnesota Twins

Record: 48-47

Odds to make the postseason: 81.6%

Verdict: Small addition

Needs: Right-handed hitter

In our exec’s words: The Twins could use help against left-handed pitching, but mostly they need to be healthy. If their best players act like it, they can make a run, but there’s no need to trade away their best prospects.


Cleveland Guardians

Record: 46-48

Postseason odds: 16.4%

Verdict: Stand pat

In our exec’s words: The Guardians simply aren’t going to replace injured starters Shane Bieber or Cal Quantrill (or Triston McKenzie) with blockbuster deals. If they get healthy, they’ll have a shot. They stood pat last year and won the division easily.

“We’re a small-market team,” GM Mike Chernoff said. “Unlike some other places, where you’re constantly thinking ‘How do we go for it in the moment,’ we have to be thinking about how do we sustain our competitiveness.

“You’ve seen over the years, we’ve tried to thread the needle in how we do it. Thankfully it’s been successful in the past.”


Los Angeles Angels

Record: 47-48

Postseason odds: 3.5%

Verdict: Deal away vets

Available: Ace/DH, corner infield

In our exec’s words: When it comes to Shohei Ohtani, the Angels won’t show their hand until the last minute. If not Ohtani — or in addition to him — others will be moved.

“With Mike Trout out, it’s made their decision easier,” another executive added. “It would have been a lot tougher to trade Ohtani if [Trout] wasn’t hurt. We’ll see.”


Seattle Mariners

Record: 47-46

Postseason odds: 9.5%

Verdict: Add

Needs: Hitting, especially an offensive upgrade at second base

In our exec’s words: This is another team whose best players simply have to show up — including Julio Rodriguez. But that doesn’t mean the Mariners should stand pat. Offensive production at both second base and designated hitter has been a problem.


Detroit Tigers

Record: 42-51

Postseason odds: 1.3%

Verdict: Stand pat

In our exec’s words: The Tigers might work around the edges with their future in mind, but president of baseball operations Scott Harris is new on the job. He’s likely not in go-for-it mode, but he doesn’t have to do a major sell-off either.

“On balance if a team is three to five games back, more than they used to, you’ll see teams trying to hang in there,” another executive added.


New York Mets

Record: 43-50

Postseason odds: 13.2 %

Verdict: Deal away vets

Available: Starting pitching, OF/DH

In our exec’s words: The Mets can always dip back into free agency during the winter. Sending out feelers for any of their veterans, including Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, makes sense.

“They’re not winning this year,” another executive said. “I’m not sure if Steve Cohen can be convinced of it, but I am.”


Chicago Cubs

Record: 43-50

Postseason odds: 20.5%

Verdict: Deal away vets

Available: Starting pitching, left-handed bat

It’s been a weird year for them, but Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger are about as good as it gets if they’re on the market. Maybe the Cubs will stand pat, thinking Cincinnati will come back to the pack. But Milwaukee will be tough.

“At the end of the day, you’re making a decision around this year’s playoff odds and future years’ playoff odds,” Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins said. “The exact record doesn’t matter if you get it down to that granular level, but it doesn’t feel very comfortable being under .500 and in a supercompetitive position.

“There’s playoff odds, and then there’s World Series odds. I don’t think there’s much history of teams being under .500 winning the World Series.”


San Diego Padres

Record: 44-50

Postseason odds: 20.7%

Verdict: Stand pat

In our exec’s words: When has Padres general manager A.J. Preller ever stood pat? This might be the year. There’s no way the Padres can add again — not with a depleted farm system and their place in the standings — but there’s no reason to trade away any of their major players either. Maybe they can make a second-half run, but there’s always next year.

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St. Pete expects Trop to be ready for Rays’ opener

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St. Pete expects Trop to be ready for Rays' opener

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — City officials in St. Petersburg showed off the newly enclosed dome at Tropicana Field on Wednesday and said they are confident the ballpark will be ready for the Tampa Bay Rays‘ home opener April 6 against the Chicago Cubs following work to repair the damage caused by Hurricane Milton last year.

“We have no concern about being open or ready for Opening Day,” said Beth Herendeen, managing director of City Development Administration. “We hope we keep it that way.”

Some seam work remains on the final panels to close small gaps at the top, and interior repairs are well underway.

Tropicana Field sustained extensive damage on Oct. 9, 2024. High winds ripped sections of the original roof, allowing rain to fall into the stadium bowl for months. Water caused mold and damage to electrical, sound and broadcast systems.

The city contracted ETS, AECOM Hunt and Hennessy Construction to lead the repairs and brought back Geiger Engineering, the dome’s original designer, to help reengineer the roof. The synthetic membranes of Polytetrafluoroethylene are thicker and built to current wind-load codes.

“The roof that was replaced had to be designed to today’s codes,” city architect Raul Quintana said. “It’s a much stronger material than it was 35 years ago, and it’s going to last.”

The Rays played 2025 home games across the bay in Tampa at Steinbrenner Field, the spring training home of the New York Yankees.

Installation of the new roof began in August, and the final panel was put in place Nov. 21. Some triangular panels still show color variation, with newer pieces beige and earlier ones already bleached white, but Quintana said they will eventually match.

“It took about three months to bleach out the ones that were first installed,” he said.

The air-conditioning system has been reactivated, and contractors are focused on electrical work, seating and sound equipment. The team is upgrading the luxury suites and stadium videoboard.

“Drywall is being hung, seats are being painted, and the catwalk electric is being installed,” Herendeen said. “The new stadium sound system will be installed this month and tested in January.”

New artificial turf is scheduled to arrive in mid-January. Other final updates include new home plate club seats, clubhouse carpet and lockers, and flooring on the outfield deck.

Tampa Bay starts the season with a nine-game trip to St. Louis, Milwaukee and Minnesota.

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Sources: LHP Kay returning to MLB with ChiSox

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Sources: LHP Kay returning to MLB with ChiSox

Left-hander Anthony Kay and the Chicago White Sox are in agreement on a two-year, $12 million contract with a club option for a third season, sources told ESPN on Wednesday, bringing the veteran back to Major League Baseball after a successful two-year run in Japan.

Kay, 30, posted a 1.74 ERA over 155 innings for the Yokohama BayStars this year, featuring a new cutter, an improved changeup and a fastball that still sits at 95 mph years after he was one of the game’s best pitching prospects.

The White Sox are aiming to replicate their success with domestic pitchers returning from Asia two years after signing Erick Fedde to a two-year, $15 million deal.

Kay’s deal will pay him $5 million each of the next two seasons and will include a $10 million club option for 2028 with a $2 million buyout, sources said. He can earn another $1.5 million in incentives.

He will slot into a White Sox rotation that includes young right-handers Shane Smith, Davis Martin and Sean Burke. Chicago used 18 starters this year, when it went 60-102 — a 19-game improvement over 2024, when the White Sox set a major league record with 121 losses.

Kay’s return comes after a five-year major league career in which he posted a 5.67 ERA in 85⅔ innings with the Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs and New York Mets, who took him in the first round of the 2016 draft out of UConn. Kay cruised through the minor leagues and was dealt to the Blue Jays along with Simeon Woods Richardson for Marcus Stroman at the 2019 trade deadline.

Following a return to the Mets in 2023, Kay departed for Yokohama, where he threw 136⅔ innings of 3.42 ERA ball in his first season.

While Nippon Professional Baseball features a depressed offensive environment, Kay still ranked fifth in the league this year in ERA and allowed only eight home runs in 155 innings while striking out 130 and walking 41.

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Reports: Reds closer Pagán back with $20M deal

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Reports: Reds closer Pagán back with M deal

Free agent closer Emilio Pagán has agreed to return to the Cincinnati Reds on a $20 million, two-year contract, according to multiple reports.

The deal, which was first reported by The Athletic, was pending a physical and had not been announced.

Pagán would have the right to opt out of the contract after the 2026 season.

The 34-year-old right-hander became the Reds’ closer early last season and went 2-4 with a 2.88 ERA and a career-high 32 saves in 38 opportunities. He ranked second in the National League in saves and tied for fifth in the majors.

Pagán is 28-27 with a 3.66 ERA and 65 saves in nine major league seasons with Seattle, Oakland, Tampa Bay, San Diego, Minnesota and Cincinnati.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

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