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As the MLB trade deadline approaches, the decision to add or subtract from a team is usually made by the standings.

Every year, however, there are bubble teams that are close to the playoff race but haven’t necessarily proved themselves in the win/loss column, leaving their front offices with a tougher decision to make.

ESPN has identified eight such teams, and with the Aug. 1 deadline exactly two weeks away, time is running out.

“They’re really making decisions the last weekend before the trade deadline,” Philadelphia Phillies president Dave Dombrowski said. “You wait as long as you can.

“You always want to make the playoffs because once you make it, we know anything can happen. However, and I’m just speaking for me, you have to be realistic with yourself. Do you have a club that’s good enough to advance, or in your heart, do you really not feel that way? It’s an important distinction.”

Adding to the challenge this season is the fact that the first-place team in the AL Central is hovering around .500, while the last-place team in the AL East is six games over. That will undoubtedly lead to varying degrees of going for it or electing to trade away veterans. And, according to Dombrowski, it makes it even more important for front-office decision-makers to understand their own team’s circumstances rather than relying just on a number of games they trail in the standings.

“Every market is different,” he said. “Every owner is different. Every team is different. You’re not the unilateral decision-maker. What happens if you’re with a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 10 years? That can be huge. That can be different than a team that’s in it all the time but is having a down year.”

With all that in mind, ESPN employed the services of a current MLB assistant general manager (whose team is not on the bubble) to help decide the fate of our eight bubble teams. Here’s his take.


Minnesota Twins

Record: 48-47

Odds to make the postseason: 81.6%

Verdict: Small addition

Needs: Right-handed hitter

In our exec’s words: The Twins could use help against left-handed pitching, but mostly they need to be healthy. If their best players act like it, they can make a run, but there’s no need to trade away their best prospects.


Cleveland Guardians

Record: 46-48

Postseason odds: 16.4%

Verdict: Stand pat

In our exec’s words: The Guardians simply aren’t going to replace injured starters Shane Bieber or Cal Quantrill (or Triston McKenzie) with blockbuster deals. If they get healthy, they’ll have a shot. They stood pat last year and won the division easily.

“We’re a small-market team,” GM Mike Chernoff said. “Unlike some other places, where you’re constantly thinking ‘How do we go for it in the moment,’ we have to be thinking about how do we sustain our competitiveness.

“You’ve seen over the years, we’ve tried to thread the needle in how we do it. Thankfully it’s been successful in the past.”


Los Angeles Angels

Record: 47-48

Postseason odds: 3.5%

Verdict: Deal away vets

Available: Ace/DH, corner infield

In our exec’s words: When it comes to Shohei Ohtani, the Angels won’t show their hand until the last minute. If not Ohtani — or in addition to him — others will be moved.

“With Mike Trout out, it’s made their decision easier,” another executive added. “It would have been a lot tougher to trade Ohtani if [Trout] wasn’t hurt. We’ll see.”


Seattle Mariners

Record: 47-46

Postseason odds: 9.5%

Verdict: Add

Needs: Hitting, especially an offensive upgrade at second base

In our exec’s words: This is another team whose best players simply have to show up — including Julio Rodriguez. But that doesn’t mean the Mariners should stand pat. Offensive production at both second base and designated hitter has been a problem.


Detroit Tigers

Record: 42-51

Postseason odds: 1.3%

Verdict: Stand pat

In our exec’s words: The Tigers might work around the edges with their future in mind, but president of baseball operations Scott Harris is new on the job. He’s likely not in go-for-it mode, but he doesn’t have to do a major sell-off either.

“On balance if a team is three to five games back, more than they used to, you’ll see teams trying to hang in there,” another executive added.


New York Mets

Record: 43-50

Postseason odds: 13.2 %

Verdict: Deal away vets

Available: Starting pitching, OF/DH

In our exec’s words: The Mets can always dip back into free agency during the winter. Sending out feelers for any of their veterans, including Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, makes sense.

“They’re not winning this year,” another executive said. “I’m not sure if Steve Cohen can be convinced of it, but I am.”


Chicago Cubs

Record: 43-50

Postseason odds: 20.5%

Verdict: Deal away vets

Available: Starting pitching, left-handed bat

It’s been a weird year for them, but Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger are about as good as it gets if they’re on the market. Maybe the Cubs will stand pat, thinking Cincinnati will come back to the pack. But Milwaukee will be tough.

“At the end of the day, you’re making a decision around this year’s playoff odds and future years’ playoff odds,” Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins said. “The exact record doesn’t matter if you get it down to that granular level, but it doesn’t feel very comfortable being under .500 and in a supercompetitive position.

“There’s playoff odds, and then there’s World Series odds. I don’t think there’s much history of teams being under .500 winning the World Series.”


San Diego Padres

Record: 44-50

Postseason odds: 20.7%

Verdict: Stand pat

In our exec’s words: When has Padres general manager A.J. Preller ever stood pat? This might be the year. There’s no way the Padres can add again — not with a depleted farm system and their place in the standings — but there’s no reason to trade away any of their major players either. Maybe they can make a second-half run, but there’s always next year.

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How Tennessee clawed back power in refusing QB’s NIL demand

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How Tennessee clawed back power in refusing QB's NIL demand

Tennessee coach Josh Heupel was on the team bus Saturday morning as it pulled in front of Neyland Stadium for the annual spring game. It was the end of a tumultuous, and potentially career-defining, week.

The Volunteers had just split with their star quarterback, Nico Iamaleava, after an attempted renegotiation of Iamaleava’s compensation for the 2025 season fell through.

Heupel and Iamaleava had always had a strong relationship, but when the QB didn’t report to practice Friday, there was little choice. “We’re moving on as a program without him,” Heupel would say later.

After all, how can you run a college team when your leader is holding out?

“There’s nobody bigger than the ‘Power T,'” Heupel said.

A great line. And a true one that would ring out as a rallying cry to NIL-weary coaches across the country: “If they want to play holdout, they might as well play get out,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal echoed.

Still, this is the SEC. This is major college football with all the expectations and pressure. This is a coaching profession where careers can turn on a single game, let alone season. “Do it the right way” tends to work only if you win.

As Heupel was about to step off the bus to face a crowd of Volunteers fans, his team was, at least on paper, less of a contender than two days prior. The reaction could have gone in any direction.

He was greeted with roaring cheers.

Iamaleava’s legacy as a quarterback remains unknown, a work in progress for the 20-year-old with three years of collegiate eligibility remaining.

In terms of his impact on the early days of the NIL era in college football though, he is a seminal figure, somehow representing both ends of the pendulum swing of player empowerment.

In the spring of 2022, Iamaleava, then just a high school junior, agreed to a four-year deal worth approximately $8 million with Tennessee’s NIL collective, Spyre Sports Group. It included a $350,000 up-front payment, per reporting by the Athletic, with money paid out during his senior season at Warren High School in California.

It was a bold, and strategically smart, play by Tennessee. While other schools were wading cautiously into NIL and the NCAA was feverishly trying to set up so-called “guardrails,” the Vols smartly saw where things were headed. When the NCAA eventually challenged the deal, the state’s attorney general stepped in and won an injunction.

Now, however, the player who was once cheered and who was paid millions before becoming the full-time starter is the poster child for NIL backlash. Rather than play out the final season of his deal — which would pay him about $2.2 million — Iamaleava reportedly wanted some $4 million that was commensurate with what other quarterbacks who transferred this year were getting.

Asking for more was Iamaleava’s right, but with rights comes risk. As with any negotiation, you can push too far.

Iamaleava is a promising and tough player, but 11 of his 19 touchdown passes last season came against lesser competition. He has great potential, but something didn’t sit right in Knoxville with how the process has played out.

This felt obnoxious.

“It’s unfortunate, just the situation and where we’re at with Nico,” Heupel said. “I want to thank him for everything that he’s done since he’s gotten here … a great appreciation for that side of it.”

That said, if being the starter and cornerstone at Tennessee — with its rich history, its massive fan base, its QB-developing head coach, its SEC spotlight and years of familiarity — isn’t enough without a few more bucks, then so be it.

It can’t all be about money, even these days.

“This program’s been around for a long time,” Heupel said. “A lot of great coaches, a lot of great players that came before, laid the cornerstone pieces, the legacy, the tradition that is Tennessee football. It’s going to be around a long time after I’m done and after they’re gone.”

Whatever games Tennessee might lose without Iamaleava, it gained in dignity by drawing a line in the sand. That’s what the fans were rightfully cheering; a boomerang that saw the school claw back some power.

Just as Iamaleava had the right under current rules to walk away if his demands weren’t meant, so too could the Volunteers. If it’s all business, then let it be all about business.

Iamaleava will be fine, mind you. He has already made more money than most Americans ever will, and he can’t legally drink yet. And this isn’t the first of these kinds of disputes, just the first that was so public and messy.

Iamaleava might or might not get $4 million next season. Negotiations were poorly managed, costing the player leverage and reputation. The market for a guy with questionable commitment, especially during the late transfer cycle, could be limited, what with big-time schools mostly set at QB.

He will still get plenty though. Would he have developed better long term under Heupel playing for the Vols? Well, Iamaleava didn’t think it was worth finding out.

Again, his career, his choice. It’s all fair game.

As for Tennessee, it might not even take a step back this season. Having a QB focused on his next deal rarely works in the first place. This might even be a boost for team chemistry.

Long term, it’s still Tennessee. It’s still Rocky Top. Heupel still has the No. 1 quarterback recruit in the Class of 2026 — Faizon Brandon of North Carolina — committed.

Most importantly, the Vols served a very public reminder that spending cash doesn’t assure anything. Money matters, but it has to be on the right guys — just as it is in the NFL or NBA. Think of how some of those big-budget Texas A&M recruiting classes worked out.

Ohio State is believed to have had the largest NIL budget last season. If it had gone to players who cared only about their deals and not each other, the Buckeyes would have collapsed after the loss to Michigan. Instead they got stronger.

What Iamaleava, once the poster child for players getting their value when he was still a recruit, has become is proof that a team can have values, too.

A program has to stand for something.

Tennessee showed it does, and that is why Heupel, at the end of a difficult week, found Tennessee fans standing for something as well.

To cheer.

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Why Luis Robert Jr. could be MLB trade deadline’s most sought-after slugger

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Why Luis Robert Jr. could be MLB trade deadline's most sought-after slugger

CHICAGO — At 27, Luis Robert Jr. is already a relic of sorts, the last remaining player from the White Sox’s all-too-brief era of contention.

On the south side of Chicago, that era seems like a very long time ago. That’s how a pair of 100-loss seasons, including last year’s record-setting 121-loss campaign, can warp a baseball fan’s perception of time. In fact, it was only 3½ years ago when, on Oct. 12, 2021, Chicago was eliminated by the Houston Astros from the American League Division Series.

Seventeen players appeared in that game for the White Sox. Robert had a hit that day but had to leave early with leg tightness — one of a string of maladies that have bedeviled his career. He is the only one of those 17 still in Chicago.

The irony: If Robert was playing up to his potential, he wouldn’t be around, either. And if he regains his mojo, he’s as good as gone.

Robert has the chance to be the most sought-after position player in 2025’s in-season trade market. Pull up any speculative list of trade candidates and Robert is near the top. Executives around the league ask about him eagerly. Despite a lack of positive recent results — including a disastrous 2024 and a rough start to this season — it’s not hard to understand why.

“A player like Luis Robert always gets a lot of attention,” White Sox GM Chris Getz said when the season began. “We’re really happy where he’s at, and how he approached spring training and how he’s performing. We expect him to perform at a very high level.”

Robert’s tools are impossible to miss. His bat speed (93rd percentile in 2025, per Statcast) is elite. His career slugging percentage when putting the ball in play is .661, slotting him in the 89th percentile among all hitters. It’s the same figure as New York Mets superstar Juan Soto. Robert’s sprint speed (29.0 feet per second) is in the 94th percentile. When healthy, he’s a perennial contender to add a second Gold Glove to the one he won as a rookie.

Still, the allure of Robert is as much about his contract as it is about his baseline talent. Smack in his prime and less than two years removed from a 5.3 bWAR season, Robert will earn just $15 million in 2025 and then has two team-friendly club options, both at $20 million with a $2 million buyout.

No potentially available hitter has this combination: a recent record of elite production, a right-now prime age, top-of-the-charts underlying talent and a club-friendly contract with multiyear potential but plenty of off-ramps. That such a player toils for a team projected to finish in the basement has for a while now made this a matter of if, not when, he is moved.

“I didn’t think I’d be here,” Robert said through an interpreter. “But I’m glad that I’m here. This is the organization that made my dream come true. It’s the only organization that I know.”

The White Sox could certainly have dealt Robert by now, based on that contract/talent combination alone. But the luxury of the contract from Chicago’s standpoint is that it buys the team time to seek maximum return. First, Robert has to show he’s healthy — so far, so good in 2025 — then he needs to demonstrate the kind of production that would make an impact for a team in win-now mode.

“He’s just extremely talented,” first-year White Sox manager Will Venable said. “The one thing that I learned about him, and watching him practice every day, is he practices extremely hard. He’s extremely focused. He certainly has the physical ability, but he’s the type of player he is because he works really hard.”

Certainly, the skills are elite, but the production has been inconsistent and, for now, headed in the wrong direction.

When Robert broke in with Chicago a few years ago, he was a consensus top-five prospect. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Robert fifth before the 2020 season, but in his analysis of the ranking, McDaniel noted one of the key reasons Robert is still on the White Sox five years later: “The concern is that Robert’s pitch selection is weak enough — described as a 35 on the 20-80 scale — that it could undermine his offensive tools.”

Since the beginning of last season, there have been 202 hitters with at least 450 plate appearances. According to the FanGraphs metric wRC+, only 15 have fared worse than Roberts’ 80. Only 10 have posted a worse ratio of walks to strikeouts (0.22). Only nine have a lower on-base percentage (.275).

Despite starting the season healthy, his superficial numbers during the early going are even worse than last year. As the team around him plunged to historic depths, Robert slashed to career lows across the board (.224/.278/.379 over 100 games). This year, that line is a disturbing .163/.250/.245.

There is real evidence that Robert is trying to reform. The most obvious evidence is a walk rate (10.3%) nearly double his career average. The sample is small, but there are under-the-hood indicators that suggest it could be meaningful. For example, Robert’s early chase rate (34.2%, per Statcast) is a career low and closer to the MLB standard (28.5).

For aggressive swingers well into their careers, trying to master plate discipline is a tall task. Few established players of that ilk have had a longer road to travel than Robert. During the wild-card era, there have been 1,135 players who have compiled at least 1,500 plate appearances. Only 17 have a lower walk-to-strikeout ratio than Robert’s career figure (0.21).

On that list are 133 hitters with a career mark of 0.3 W/SO or lower, who together account for 645 different seasons of at least 300 plate appearances. Only 26 times did one of those seasons result in at least a league-average ratio, or about 4%. Only one of those hitters had two such seasons, another 24 did it once and 108 never did it.

Still, 4% isn’t zero. To that end, Robert spent time during the winter working out with baseball’s current leader in W/SO — Soto.

“It’s no secret that one of the reasons why he’s one of the best players in the game is that he’s quite disciplined,” Robert said. “And that’s one of the things I want to improve.”

That’s easier said than done, and for his part, Soto said the workouts were mostly just that — workouts, though they were conducted with Robert’s hitting coach on hand. As with everyone else, it’s the sheer talent that exudes from Robert that caught Soto’s eye.

“Tremendous baseball player and tremendous athlete,” Soto told ESPN’s Jorge Castillo in Spanish. “He showed me a lot of his abilities that I didn’t know he had. That guy has tremendous strength, tremendous power. And he really surprised me a lot in everything we did.”

In this year’s Cactus League, Robert produced a .300/.386/.500 slash line, with four homers.

“If I’m able to carry on the work that I did during spring training, I’m going to have a good season,” Robert said. “Especially in that aspect of my vision of the whole plate. I know I can do it.”

Getz — who will have to determine if and when to pull the trigger on a Robert deal — lauded Robert’s efforts during the spring.

“Luis Robert is in an excellent spot,” Getz said. “The amount of three-ball counts that he had in spring training was by far the most he has had as a professional player. So that just speaks to his determination and focus to put together quality at-bats.”

It’s a bittersweet situation. The remaining vestige of the last good White Sox team remains the club’s most talented player. He’s in his age-27 season, often the apex of a hitter’s career. Yet if he reaches that apex, it’s only going to smooth his way out of town.

For the White Sox, all they can do is make sure Robert can stay focused on the field, while tuning out the trade chatter that isn’t going away.

“We’re going to support Luis,” Getz said. “I know that oftentimes he gets asked questions whether he’s going to be traded, but I’ve been really impressed with how he’s been able to remain focused on his craft. He’s very motivated to show the baseball world what he’s capable of doing.”

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Ex-UNC, Duke players file lawsuit over eligibility

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Ex-UNC, Duke players file lawsuit over eligibility

DURHAM, N.C. — Former football players from Duke and North Carolina have a hearing next week in lawsuits seeking additional eligibility from the NCAA for playing careers they say were derailed by injuries, ailments and personal difficulties.

Former Duke football players Ryan Smith and Tre’Shon Devones are plaintiffs in one of the complaints filed in Durham County Superior Court on April 3, while former UNC player J.J. Jones and former Duke player Cameron Bergeron are plaintiffs in a similar lawsuit filed the same day. Their complaints seek to prevent the NCAA from following its longstanding policy of having athletes complete four years of eligibility within a five-year window.

Their cases are now set for April 22 in North Carolina Business Court.

Specifically, the athletes point to lost potential earnings — $100,000 to $500,000, according to the lawsuits — from rules allowing athletes to profit from their fame through activities utilizing their name, image and likeness (NIL).

The complaints allege the NCAA and member schools “have entered into an illegal agreement to restrain and suppress competition” while also saying the waiver process allowing exemptions to its five-year rule is enforced “arbitrarily,” and that the process has denied them the ability to reach their “full potential.”

In February, former NC State football player Corey Coley Jr. filed a lawsuit with a similar argument in U.S. District Court in North Carolina.

“The NCAA stands by its eligibility rules, including the five-year rule, which enable student-athletes and schools to have fair competition and ensure broad access to the unique and life-changing opportunity to be a student-athlete,” the NCAA said in a statement. “The NCAA is making changes to modernize college sports but attempts to alter the enforcement of foundational eligibility rules — approved and supported by membership leaders — makes a shifting environment even more unsettled.”

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