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SHOHEI OHTANI IS both text and subtext, the brightest light in the firmament and the candle flicker on the wall. He is right there in front of us, obvious in all his brilliance, yet slightly out of reach, his present as clear as his future is uncertain.

This current edition of “Season of Ohtani” feels like the height of something, like a great artist’s signature piece or a writer’s seminal work. Every oversaturated box score speaks to something previously unattainable, an unrepeatable (for now) shift of the game’s tectonics. It feels as if it could be the end of something, or at least a gateway to something completely different.

Ohtani’s pending free agency hovers above the Angels’ season, following them everywhere. When manager Phil Nevin is asked whether he believes his team can compete with the Astros and Rangers in the American League West, he is being asked whether the Angels can keep Ohtani. When general manager Perry Minasian is asked how many games per month his team needs to win to remain in contention, or whether there is a magical number of losses that will denote non-contention, he is being asked whether the Angels can keep Ohtani. When Angels players are asked whether they feel momentum flowing or ebbing or remaining the same, they are being asked whether the Angels can keep Ohtani.

The only one who is not asked whether the Angels can keep Ohtani is Ohtani.

I set out to contextualize this moment, whatever it is now and whatever it might become: Ohtani on the brink of free agency, and the Angels desperately trying to play well enough to win him over. The idea was to capture the experience beginning with one Ohtani start on the mound and finishing with the next; in this case, seven otherwise random games in June, three against the Astros, three against the Cubs and one against the Mariners. The Angels won five of seven, the last five in a row. Ohtani was 11-of-28 with two homers and six RBIs, and he pitched 11 innings over two starts, striking out 12 and allowing seven earned runs. It was a decent but understated start to what would become one of the best months by an individual player in baseball history.

To watch Ohtani over an extended period of time is to be subsumed into his world. There is always a small, revelatory moment, far removed from the home runs and the 102 mph fastballs, that feels unique to Ohtani. In the sixth inning of Ohtani’s June 2 start against the Astros, Kyle Tucker rolled over on a pitch and tapped it to first, about 40 feet from home plate and 6 feet off the foul line. Ohtani ran over and picked it up and stood in the baseline, facing Tucker, who had stopped as Ohtani tried to decide the most respectful way to record the out. They stared at each other for a second or two before Tucker extended his right arm and presented it to Ohtani, as if to say, “Here, this is how this ends.”

I found myself constantly looking at my scorecard to see when he would come to bat again, and watching him and translator/friend/coach/consigliere Ippei Mizuhara gesticulate over a tablet in the dugout, and tracking the time it takes him to regroup after an at-bat and before he heads to the mound. (The umpires, understanding the moment, have granted him some between-inning leniency.) Every at-bat was accompanied by the collective lean of 30,000 people, suddenly engaged. There were times I wished — as I’m sure Nevin does — that Ohtani could expand his oeuvre and occupy two spots in the batting order at once.

Ohtani’s excellence is such a feature of the landscape that it can be difficult to believe it wasn’t always like this. During his first spring training with the Angels, in March 2018, I sat in the stands in Tempe, Arizona, watching him bounce fastballs and hang breaking balls against the Tijuana Toros, a Mexican League team in town for a game so far off the radar they played it in the morning and didn’t sell tickets. Ohtani was terrible — wild, rhythmless, confused. He threw very few strikes, and the ones he threw got hit hard. I listened as people told me the American baseballs were too slick and the mounds too hard, and I listened as his high school coach, Hiroshi Sasaki, told me that Ohtani needed two years of struggle to reach his potential. “Right now,” Sasaki said, “Shohei is crouched. He must go down before he rises up.” I nodded and wrote it down, not sure I believed it.

THE PROBLEM WITH writing about Ohtani is that in between the writing and the reading he does something that surpasses everything else. While writing this, I watched him: beat the White Sox by hitting two home runs while striking out 10 and giving up just one run in 6⅓ innings; and hit home runs at what has to be called an alarming rate, including a 493-footer that, even through the television, sounded like a gunshot in the woods. He hit 15 home runs in June and amassed a 286 OPS+ (league average: 100). He also pitched 30⅓ innings with a 3.26 ERA. It has reached the point where it’s a surprise whenever he doesn’t do something ridiculous.

A random Sunday afternoon, two outs in the ninth, nobody on, Angels up a couple of runs, Ohtani working on an 0-for-3 afternoon, and he cracks one 454 feet; a Monday night in Texas, 459 into the second deck in left-center, to a place other left-handed hitters don’t even know exists; two nights later, 453 to the same spot.

(And the ancillary problem of assessing the Angels’ playoff chances vis-à-vis Ohtani’s future is the franchise’s inability to get out of its own way. Even the best of times — winning eight of nine from early to mid-June to grab ahold of a theoretical wild-card spot — are just a grim reminder of what’s ahead: Mike Trout’s broken hamate bone; Anthony Rendon’s long-running series of injuries; Ohtani’s cracked fingernail/blister combo that ended his subpar July 4 start and kept him off the mound at the All-Star Game. They win eight of nine, they lose nine of 10. Such are the Angels.)

Discerning the meaning of something demands some sort of comparison, or at least a relevant reference point. Ohtani, having driven past — and then backed over — the Babe Ruth comparisons, has left us to our own devices. Academics who study prodigies talk about the constant push for more and the compulsion to move on from mastering one task to pursuing another. It wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if we learned Ohtani was going to spend an offseason working on switch-hitting or hitting .400 or throwing a knuckleball.

“Every day he wakes up thinking about how he can be the best baseball player on the planet,” Nevin says. “Every movement he makes is toward that purpose. Not just at the field but how he eats, how much he sleeps, how he organizes his day. He does whatever it takes to get there.”

Nevin is asked about Ohtani so often he long ago ran out of descriptions, but he consciously takes a few minutes every day to appreciate what he’s experiencing. “It feels like every day I come into the press room and someone says, ‘Sho set this record today. Nobody’s ever done this, or that,'” he says. “I’ve found I need to step back and not take it for granted.”

BY NOW IT’S safe to assume our prying eyes will never be allowed access to Ohtani’s world, no matter how boring and rote we presume it to be. He is content to narcotize the masses with uniquely unilluminating sentences presented with unrelenting politeness.

His teammates look upon him with a mixture of awe and curiosity. (“When a guy does what he does,” pitcher Tucker Davidson says, “it’s OK to be in awe.”) Strangely, the guys who share a clubhouse with Ohtani don’t know a lot more about him than the rest of us. They discuss what might happen at the trade deadline or where he might be next year, but reliever Aaron Loup says, “We haven’t asked him about it. Definitely not. But it’s a topic. You can’t avoid it.” They don’t know his daily routine — “It’s a great question,” reliever Chris Devenski says, “I’d like to know his secrets, too” — despite marveling at its results. Nevin goes on and on about Ohtani’s discipline and preparation, but when I asked him whether he knows the day-to-day specifics of how Ohtani compartmentalizes his two crafts, Nevin says, “I don’t. I don’t know what he’s doing every day at the ballpark. I leave that to him.”

But who Ohtani is has always been secondary to what he does, and what he does is so cosmic in a baseball sense — and who he is, from all available evidence, so comparatively boring — that it’s probably enough. Openness is the enemy of myth, and nobody ever crafted a legend without mystery.

He has strained the limits of language. Historic and unprecedented, just to get those two out of the way early. But how many ways can disbelief be expressed? How many superlatives strung together does it take to equal utter meaninglessness?

Every season Ohtani grows bigger, his shoulders now as wide as the batter’s box, as if in response to the expectations. He has grown more demonstrative, occasionally expressing disagreement with umpires’ calls and routinely celebrating his achievements more openly. His purchase of the celebratory kabuto helmet he and his teammates wear while prancing through the dugout after home runs would have been unthinkable even four years ago.

And maybe some measure of distance is not just preferable but necessary. It’s hard to imagine the chaos his life would become with just the merest hint of controversy. He must be left alone to do what cannot be done.

“He doesn’t share too much, to be honest with you,” Loup says. “When it comes to the work side and preparation, he definitely has his own program. I’m sure the weight he’s got on his shoulders is beyond everyone else’s.”

A Japanese journalist standing near the third-base dugout in Anaheim filming Ohtani’s center-field plyo-ball workout three hours before a game tells me, “He’s a megastar. We’ve grown numb to not getting anything from him. We’ve accepted it.” Mizuhara stands two steps behind Ohtani with a radar gun. Several Japanese journalists film while others take notes. They all wear the same languid looks; never before has someone so active been responsible for so much lethargy. The appetite for Ohtani content in Japan is prodigious; video of the plyo-ball routine shot from 200 feet away will be seen throughout the country. The beast must be fed; the beast is insatiable.

“None of us can imagine what it’s like for him,” says Angels rookie shortstop Zach Neto. “You go out and see all the media watching and filming him just throwing plyo balls against the wall. Like, every time. It’s hard to imagine being in that kind of spotlight.”

Ohtani’s career is historic in so many ways, and soon that will include the amount of wild conjecture that will accompany his free agency this offseason. With the trade deadline at the end of July, every rumor is already retailed to the masses. Another Japanese reporter holds out his phone and translates a social media message detailing how the New York Mets have enlisted fans to spread disinformation about Ohtani as a means of decreasing interest from other MLB teams, thereby increasing the Mets’ chances of signing him. It’s preposterous, of course, but since it’s 2023 and since it’s Ohtani, the reporter asks around to see whether anybody thinks it could be true.

AT 3:45 P.M., ROUGHLY three hours before Ohtani is to pitch against the Astros in Minute Maid Park on June 2, he and Mizuhara sit at a four-top in the players’ lounge, looking at their phones. (In the interest of pith-helmeted investigative journalism, I can report that Ohtani is partial to lime-flavored sparkling water.) A few minutes before they sat down, the Angels’ lineup was posted on the wall of the clubhouse. Ohtani, pitching and leading off. (“Still crazy to see it,” pitcher Griffin Canning says. “Warm up in the pen, run to the dugout, throw on a helmet and face Framber Valdez. No big deal.”) Thirty-five minutes later, Ohtani and Mizuhara are still in the same seats, still looking at their phones, proving that even the busiest baseball player in the world has a lot of downtime. At 4:23, catcher Chad Wallach sits across from Ohtani to discuss the game plan against the Astros.

“He’s pretty involved,” Wallach says. “He definitely knows every hitter. He’s pretty confident and dialed into what he’s doing, so I’m just there to suggest a pitch every once in a while.”

The task is not small. Ohtani throws eight pitches: a four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a sweeper, a “shorter” slider, a curveball, a cutter, a split-finger and something Ohtani calls a “running split” — a split that has more depth to it. There are eight buttons on his PitchCom, and he reaches under his arm and relays pitch type with the first push, location with the second. The pitch clock gives him 15 seconds to choose and throw a pitch with nobody on base, so there is no time to go through the suggesting and shaking of four pitches, much less eight.

“I’m amazed at what he can make happen off those eight pitches,” says injured catcher Logan O’Hoppe. “He’ll say, ‘I’m going to throw this pitch, but I want a little more depth to it.’ And then he’ll throw it and it’ll have more depth to it. It’s the same pitch, but it’s also not. He’s got eight pitches, but he can make it 16 if he wants.”

What you see today might not be what you see next start. What you see in the second inning might not be what you see in the sixth. Eight pitches and all their variants, adding to the mystery. This granular level of detail is necessary only because pitch selection came up as an issue for Ohtani in both of his starts over the course of the seven games. Against Houston, he threw consecutive sweepers to Yordan Alvarez, the first one a harmless ball and the second one a lifeless thing that Alvarez drove over the wall in right-center.

There is an awkward self-consciousness every pitcher feels when he has just allowed a home run on the road. Fireworks go off, the fans roar and the pitcher, as a sort of penance, is forced to stand out there while the hitter soaks it all in with a relaxing stroll around the bases. Most pitchers ask the umpire for a new ball immediately, as if having one in your glove negates the one in the bleachers. Ohtani nodded for a new ball before Alvarez hit first base, and before Alvarez hit third he had already reached under his left armpit to tell Wallach what he wanted to throw to the next hitter.

After the start, an Ohtani loss, Nevin said, “There are some pitch selection things we need to talk about. A guy like Alvarez seeing two pitches like that … if you put them in the right spot, then yeah. But I’m not saying he should have thrown a fastball, and I’m not saying he threw the wrong pitch.”

In the clubhouse, everyone waited for Ohtani. Mizuhara walked out of an adjacent video room, Ohtani still inside, and looked at the assembled group with a look of surprise. He quickly ducked back into the room and emerged with Ohtani, wearing a black New Balance T-shirt, his right arm wrapped in ice, sweat rolling off his forehead and into his eyes. Questions were asked and translated, and Ohtani earnestly gave different versions of the same anodyne answers we’ve heard for six years.

“I think he understands exactly what the question is before it’s translated,” Davidson says. “But I think it gives him a chance to think, ‘OK, here’s how I want to say this.’ He doesn’t like to give off any of his secrets.”

Mizuhara, 39, is an employee of the Angels, but that seems like something done strictly for accounting purposes. He’s been with Ohtani since he arrived in the United States. He is Ohtani’s ever-present plus-one, usually following two to three strides behind him and almost always carrying something. He carries Ohtani’s luggage into the clubhouse on getaway days; he carries Ohtani’s iPad for him to study hitters and pitchers. He carries Ohtani’s water jug, a comically large vessel designed to look like an office water cooler.

They drive to the ballpark together. They sit together at Ohtani’s locker and in the players’ lounge before and after games. They are apart only when Ohtani is on the mound or in the batter’s box. Mizuhara runs Ohtani’s pregame routine on the days he pitches and the bullpen sessions he throws the day before. He sits in the dugout with a tablet and confides with Ohtani on hitting and pitching between innings. When a new pitcher is called from the bullpen to face Ohtani, it is Mizuhara, not a hitting coach, who heads to the on-deck circle with the tablet to give Ohtani the rundown on the new guy’s stuff. When Ohtani hit the first of two homers on the night he pitched against the White Sox, he didn’t have time for the post-homer frivolity involving the samurai helmet, so he handed it to Mizuhara for the ceremonial tunnel run.

So: Do they ever get sick of each other?

“I wondered about it a lot, and I don’t think they do,” says first baseman Jared Walsh. “They’ve transcended friendship into brotherhood, truly. It sounds dumb, but it’s true.”

THE NEXT DAY in Houston, after grinding through 107 pitches the night before, Ohtani led off again and had four hits. He sent line drives like hornets all over the field: a single to center, a triple to center, a double to left, a single to right.

Long after the game ended, Astros manager Dusty Baker walked through the clubhouse toward his office shaking his head. “We thought he was gassed yesterday,” he said. “And then he comes out today and gets four hits. I’ve never seen anything like him.”

Baker’s comments sparked a question that dogged me through the better part of a week: What is Ohtani’s toughest day?

“I don’t know what day is hardest,” says Minasian, the Angels’ GM. “He makes every day look easy.”

Most of Ohtani’s teammates reflexively said the day he pitches — “Has to be, right?” Wallach asks — but nobody has ever asked. A cynic might wonder: How hard can it be when he’s hitting over .400 on those days?

“I would have to say the day after. Think of it this way: He’s rotating his body this way,” Walsh says as he mimics Ohtani’s pitching motion, “and then he’s swinging the bat and rotating 120 miles an hour the other way. So I would just assume the toll on the hips and the low back with as much torque as he puts on it — you’re going to feel that the next morning. But then again, I think he plays by a different set of rules than the rest of us.”

I asked just about everybody: Nevin, several pitchers, two catchers, four infielders. “I would imagine it’s the day after he throws all those pitches,” Devenski says, while Loup says, “The day he pitches. One, to have the energy to do it. Two, to be prepared the way he prepares to perform on the mound and at the plate.”

Finally, on the last day of the trip, I get the chance to ask Ohtani. He tilts his head a quarter-turn to the right and nods — you get it, the nods always seem to say, and I get you — the way he does when he’s preparing an answer. He listens to Mizuhara’s translation and says, “The biggest workload is obviously the day I pitch, but the hardest day depends on how my body responds after my start. It can be the next day or even the second day after the start.”

As Ohtani ended the interview with English-speaking reporters and turned to the Japanese contingent, Mizuhara stood off to the side and told me, with a hint of confidentiality, “The next day after his start he still has adrenaline. It’s the second day when he’s most sore.” Mizuhara’s insight cracked the door ever so slightly; in this hermetically sealed world, it felt momentous.

THE ANGELS WON the last game of the four-game series against the Astros to avoid a sweep. Ohtani hit an RBI double in the eighth inning to break a tie and push the Angels to a 2-1 win. It felt like a big win, for the team and for Ohtani and for the team’s chances to keep Ohtani, since every game is a referendum on the Angels’ worthiness as an offseason suitor. The clubhouse music played loud enough to bounce ribs.

As the music throbbed, a Japanese-speaking Angels media relations representative is asked whether Ohtani will answer a few questions. He generally speaks only after games he pitches, but there was news — the hit that won the game, plus Nevin’s postgame announcement that Ohtani’s next start would be pushed back a day. She says she will take the request to Mizuhara, who will take it to Ohtani in the players’ lounge to see whether he will answer a few questions in a couple of languages.

If Trout had hit a game-winning double, he would stand at his locker and answer questions until one side or the other grew bored. If Patrick Sandoval’s start had been pushed back a day, he would have called everyone over and chatted for 15 minutes. If Luis Rengifo had hit a game-winning double, a Spanish-speaking translator would be standing with him at his locker waiting for the reporters’ arrival.

The request is relayed to Mizuhara, who stands with Ohtani at his locker. The two speak briefly while more than a dozen reporters stand idly, about 20 feet away. Abruptly, Ohtani puts his head down and walks past everyone to the safety of the players’ lounge, Mizuhara two steps behind.

Many locker room interactions are awkward; this one is weird. Other Angels players, packing up for the flight home, are looking around wondering why the reporters are hanging around staring at their phones and their shoes. Did something bad happen?

After what seems like forever but is probably less than 10 minutes — longer than Ohtani ever speaks after he pitches — the negotiations are apparently complete. The Angels PR staffer approaches solemnly, with news:

“I have a quote,” she says.

First to the Japanese media, she repeats Othani’s words. The reporters start to write, then stop and look up, confused.

She turns to the American media.

“I am glad I got the hit,” she says, “and I’m glad we won the game.”

WHEN NEVIN WAS coaching third base last season before taking over for Joe Maddon, Ohtani asked him to stop giving him signs with a 3-0 count. Ohtani felt teams were pitching him differently on 3-0 depending on the sign; Nevin doesn’t know whether Ohtani believed the signs were being picked or whether the mere act of Ohtani looking to third and Nevin relaying a sign was triggering a certain response. He didn’t ask; he just complied.

“He said he knew when to hit and when not to,” Nevin says, shrugging.

A few at-bats later, Ohtani ran the count to 3-0, and Nevin turned and walked away from the third-base coaching box, determined not to make any motion that might be construed as a sign. Ohtani smoked a double off the wall in right-center — Nevin is looking out from the Angels’ dugout like he can still see it — and stared directly at Nevin when he pulled into second base.

Ohtani looked at Nevin, pointed both index fingers and laughed.

“See?” he asked.

Everything must be examined. He consults sleep experts and nutrition experts. During his MLB-mandated media session the day before the All-Star Game, he revealed that sleep, that most important and boring human need, is the key to his success. He conserves his energy at the ballpark by prioritizing efficiency over repetition. “He understands now that 40 good swings is better than 100 swings,” Walsh says. “He knows when he’s right it doesn’t take much.” Depending on how he feels, he’ll throw his between-start bullpen — it’s really a comprehensive throwing workout that concludes with him on the bullpen mound — either one or two days before a start.

In his second June start, on a Friday night at home against the Mariners, Ohtani once again threw consecutive sweepers to a left-handed hitter, this time Jarred Kelenic, who hit a two-run first-inning homer. Once again, it was attributed to Ohtani’s perfectionism; he threw a bad sweeper in both cases, to Alvarez and Kelenic, then tried to right his wrong by coming back with the exact same pitch, out to prove he could throw it better. Both times the second one was worse: flabby and flat and catching too much of the plate.

After the game — a game in which Ohtani homered and the Angels won, by the way — Nevin was asked whether the problems with pitch selection might cause him and the coaches to rethink allowing Ohtani complete control. Should the catcher, or maybe the minds in the dugout, have a say in what he throws?

“We’d only consider something like that if he came to us with it,” Nevin said.

Ohtani is such a transcendent talent, and so obsessive about his craft(s), that the Angels are rightfully leery of offering even the slightest criticism. Their hopes for keeping him hinge on his comfort level, and his belief that the team has the means and the motive to become a consistent contender. Ohtani is the rare athlete who can play by his own rules and remain universally liked in a baseball clubhouse, perhaps the most insular and caustic place in sports.

“Nobody has done this, and he’s earned that trust,” Nevin says. “He’s the last guy I worry about being prepared for a game.”

Minasian is sitting on the bench in the Angels’ dugout, answering the same Ohtani and Ohtani-adjacent questions. In his third season as the Angels’ GM, Minasian inherited Ohtani and all the rules of engagement. He has maintained, publicly and privately, an air of confidence regarding the team’s ability to sign Ohtani after this season.

“We love this player, and we think he’s someone who fits,” Minasian says. “We hope he’s here for a long time, and right now we’re just trying to win games.”

Through 5½ years in Anaheim, Ohtani has been a bargain. He not only makes significantly less than his talent suggests, but his presence fills Anaheim Stadium with a dizzying number of Japanese advertisements. There are signs for Yakult probiotic drink, Bandai Namco video games, Funai/Yamada electronics. The water jug and towels in the dugouts bear the logo of Pocari Sweat, a Japanese version of Gatorade. A video spot for Churu — “Japan’s No. 1 cat treat” — runs after the top of the fifth inning at every Angels home game.

It’s all directly attributable to Ohtani, of course, but he is not in any conventional sense the face of the franchise. Trout is the guy taking batting practice on the field and signing baseballs for Little Leaguers behind home plate. Ohtani’s public offerings are on the field. Will his next employer — or the Angels — agree to the same conditions?

“Let’s say someone gives him $600 million,” I say to Minasian.

“Seven hundred,” he interrupts, laughing. “Eight hundred.” He throws his hands up. Pick a number, any number. Nothing is too outrageous at the moment; Ohtani is a $400 million hitter and a $300 million pitcher, or is it the other way around?

“Play money at this point,” Minasian says. But let’s take the Mets, I say, trying to play through. They’re desperate to win and compete with the Yankees for everything — championships, attention, star power, supremacy in the market. Wouldn’t they expect a more public version of Ohtani?

“You’d have to ask them,” Minasian says.

The inference is clear: You don’t have to ask the Angels. They’ve already answered the question.

ON A TUESDAY night in Anaheim, against the Cubs, the vision sprang to life. Ohtani and Trout were on base five times. Ohtani homered. In the fifth, the Cubs brought in left-handed reliever Brandon Hughes to face Ohtani, who walked to set up a two-out, two-run single by Trout that forever altered the game’s chemistry. A parade of Cubs relievers bounced in from the bullpen with big ideas ready to be deflated. This — this right here, on June 6, 2023 — is what it looks like when it works.

Ohtani has done what Trout did before him: provide a glossy cover to a sloppily plotted book. The Angels have made the postseason once in Trout’s time with the team, a first-round loss in 2014. Things will change, and change quickly, because change is the Angels’ specialty, but this win will be part of a stretch when the Angels win eight of nine to go eight games over .500. And on this day, a columnist at The Seattle Times wrote about the Mariners’ unexpectedly poor season under the headline, “Are the Mariners ruining any chance to sign Shohei Ohtani?” In San Francisco, a columnist outlined his version of what the Giants, suddenly viable contenders, need to do to stay in the running to sign Ohtani.

Against this backdrop — every game a referendum — Minasian set about the job of reupholstering the roster. “Everyone understands it takes more than two great players to win,” he says. His draft picks, including Neto and relievers Ben Joyce and Sam Bachman, were making an impact. Mike Moustakas and Eduardo Escobar were brought in through trades, moves that served for the moment to quiet any talk of a pending Ohtani deal. With their audience clearly identified, they desperately tried to get better, to prove they’re serious, to make the playoffs, to answer the many iterations of the one question that will dictate everything else.

Can you keep Ohtani?

For his part, Ohtani seems happy to remain lost in the many tasks that await him. He seems comfortable in his self-contained world. His talent continues to keep its promise, regardless of what swirls around him. But what about the next two weeks, and then the next two months? That’s the thing about Ohtani: Aside from all the first-evers and never-befores and what’s-nexts, he seems singularly equipped to ignore the noise of the moment, and the noise to come.

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Ohio State? Bama? Indiana? Anyone in the ACC? Who we can — and can’t — trust

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October 21, 2025

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Ohio State? Bama? Indiana? Anyone in the ACC? Who we can -- and can't -- trust

  • Bill ConnellyOct 19, 2025, 06:30 PM ET

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      Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.

With four ranked-versus-ranked games on the Week 8 docket, we were guaranteed to see some good teams fall this weekend. We got more than we bargained for. No. 2 Miami lost as a 10.5-point home favorite to an unranked team. No. 7 Texas Tech (10.5-point favorite), No. 22 Memphis (21.5-point favorite) and No. 25 Nebraska (5.5-point favorite) all fell to unranked squads as well.

And in the SEC, No. 4 Texas A&M barely survived 2-4 Arkansas, while No. 16 Missouri (against 3-3 Auburn) and No. 21 Texas (against 2-3 Kentucky) needed overtime to secure road wins.

Parity has been the watchword in college football this year — the elite teams don’t seem quite as elite, and the sport’s middle class seems closer to the top of the pack than usual. It rules, frankly. Week 8 certainly reinforced that notion. It was a breathless mess from start to finish.

In times like these, it’s hard to know what teams and players you can trust. I’m here to help. After eight topsy-turvy weeks, we have at least a decent idea of teams’ ceilings and floors, so let’s talk about college football’s most — and least — trustworthy entities.

I went on an Ohio State podcast last week and revealed an ugly truth: Ohio State is annoying the hell out of me this season. Amid all the parity talk, I’m pretty sure Ryan Day’s Buckeyes are comfortably the best team in the country at the moment, but they choose to drop hints only in periodic doses. I prefer my elite teams to win games 63-0 and basically wear a giant “WE’RE ELITE” sign, but after last season’s experience — in which the Buckeyes lost late in the year to Michigan but shifted into fifth gear in four comfortable College Football Playoff wins — no one better understands that the goal is to peak in December, not October.

It would help if they had some elite opponents to look toward, but the Big Ten opponent on their schedule that was supposed to be elite (Penn State) is anything but, and the Buckeyes aren’t scheduled to play Indiana. Instead, they’ve been left to alternate between second-gear blowouts of iffy to bad teams and comfortable 18-point road wins over solid-but-unspectacular opponents such as Illinois and Washington.

Day at least let Julian Sayin throw some pitches Saturday. In front of a less-than-robust Wisconsin crowd (perhaps just hours before the inevitable firing of head coach Luke Fickell), Sayin, who averaged just 26.8 dropbacks per game in his first six starts, went 36-for-42 for 393 yards and four touchdowns. He distributed the ball to 10 receivers, though the dynamite duo of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate combined for 15 catches and 208 yards.

Wisconsin’s offense was never going to threaten the best defense in the country — the Badgers gained just 144 total yards and took just nine snaps in Ohio State territory (yards gained in those snaps: 6) — so there was no downside to stretching Sayin out a bit. He averaged only 10.9 yards per completion, and Smith is still averaging just 9.4 yards per catch and 6.9 yards per target against power-conference opponents. For that matter, the Buckeyes’ run game is producing almost no explosive plays, but one assumes the passing game will provide more than enough explosiveness if it’s ever asked to, especially as Sayin, the redshirt freshman, grows in confidence.

Of course, we might have to wait a while to confirm that. Ohio State gets a bye week, then four straight games against teams with losing records (Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers). Three of those games are at home, and three of those opponents rank worse than 65th in SP+. Anyone craving a glimpse at fifth-gear Ohio State is probably going to have to wait at least another month.

In part because of how quickly SP+ was saying Indiana was really good in 2024, I feel like I’ve been in the front car of the Hoosiers bandwagon for a while now. And even I have found myself wondering if or when they might begin to look a bit more mortal, to drop a hint that they might be dealing with extra pressure and expectations. It would be normal and forgivable if it happened, and when Aidan Chiles and Nick Marsh connected to give Michigan State a 10-7 lead early in the second quarter in front of 55,165 in Bloomington, I thought we might be encountering such a moment.

Nope. The Hoosiers ripped off a 75-yard touchdown drive, forced a punt, drove 80 yards for another touchdown and, after a halftime weather delay, drove 75 and 68 yards for two more touchdowns to put away a 38-13 win. Fernando Mendoza was nearly perfect once again, engineering five TD drives in five tries before a turnover on downs ended the streak early in the fourth quarter. He went 24-for-28 for 332 yards and four touchdowns, and stars Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt caught 12 passes for 185 yards and three of the scores. The Indiana defense had a poor game by its standards, allowing six Michigan State drives to finish in IU territory, but the Hoosiers still haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a game this season.

Even if your brain has been slow to completely grasp this — mine evidently has, despite my best efforts — there’s absolutely no reason to think of Indiana as anything but an elite team that will play like an elite team most of the time. And if that remains true, then go ahead and pencil the Hoosiers into the Big Ten championship game: Their five remaining games are against three teams ranked 65th or worse in SP+ and two (Maryland and Penn State) who are a combined 0-7 since Week 4.

We entered Week 8 with five teams looking at odds of 25% or higher to finish 12-0: Ohio State, Texas Tech, Indiana, Memphis and Miami. Three of them lost; the other two — Ohio State (now 49%) and Indiana (45%) — are on a collision course to meet in Indianapolis.

Don’t trust: The ACC

All of it. The entire conference is untrustworthy at this point. There were eight games involving ACC teams in Week 8; four produced upsets, three on the favorite’s home field, and two others nearly did. Stanford beat Florida State as a 17.5-point underdog, Louisville (+10.5) won at Miami, SMU (+5.5) won at Clemson in a game altered by multiple quarterback injuries and Georgia Tech (+3.5) won at Duke 27-18 in a game impacted heavily by a 95-yard Omar Daniels fumble return score.

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Omar Daniels takes Duke fumble 95 yards to the house

Georgia Tech strikes first as Omar Daniels recovers a Duke fumble and returns it 95 yards for the touchdown.

Oh yeah, and Cal nearly lost as an 8.5-point home favorite against previously hapless North Carolina, and Virginia (-16.5) needed a late Washington State implosion to beat the Cougars 22-20 at home. In all, only Pitt’s 30-13 win over Syracuse — the Panthers have genuinely gone to a new level since installing freshman Mason Heintschel at quarterback (though he admittedly didn’t do much Saturday) — and collapsing Boston College’s 38-23 loss to UConn produced what you might call expected outcomes, though UConn’s winning margin was larger than anticipated.

As one would expect, such a wacky week shuffled the conference title odds a good amount.

ACC title odds, per SP+:
Georgia Tech (7-0, 4-0 ACC): 26.9% (up 9.2%)
Louisville (5-1, 2-1): 16.8% (up 6.5%)
Miami (5-1, 1-1): 13.4% (down 17.3%)
Virginia (6-1, 3-0): 12.9% (up 1.9%)
SMU (5-2, 3-0): 12.9% (up 5.8%)
Pitt (5-2, 3-1): 8.3% (up 2.5%)
Duke (4-3, 3-1): 7.3% (down 7.7%)
Cal (5-2, 2-1): 1.0% (up 0.4%)

SP+ pinpointed Miami as more of a top-15 team than an elite one weeks ago, and as such, the Hurricanes could struggle in road trips against SMU (which has won three in a row) and the aforementioned Pitt in a series that has produced upsets in five of the past nine meetings. Louisville’s offense isn’t quite trustworthy yet, but the Cardinals have only one more SP+ top-40 opponent on the schedule (No. 37 SMU).

Virginia and SMU still have mulligans to spend — both are unbeaten in conference play — as does Georgia Tech, which remains unbeaten overall and has moved into the ACC driver’s seat. But as fun as the Tech story is, it’s hard to trust the Yellow Jackets, who, despite having not yet faced an SP+ top-40 team, have needed three one-score victories to remain unbeaten and rank only 29th in points per drive on offense and 53rd on defense. They’re 28th in SP+, behind Miami and Louisville and only narrowly ahead of Pitt, SMU and a quickly deteriorating Florida State.

Translation: This race probably has a few more plot twists to go. The spirit of the ACC Coastal division lives. Trust no one.

For what I believe was the first time since it expanded to 16 teams last year, the SEC had eight conference games going on the same Saturday. Two went to overtime, and others were decided by two, three, seven and eight points.

When we talk about parity in college football, we’re directing a lot of that at the SEC. It currently doesn’t have a team within six points of Ohio State in the SP+ ratings, but its top 10 teams are within five points of each other. All are ranked between fifth and 19th nationally, and even with Alabama bolting out ahead of the pack, we’re still looking at eight teams with at least a 5% chance at the conference title.

SEC title odds, per SP+:
Alabama (6-1, 4-0 SEC): 25.8% (up 7.0%)
Texas A&M (7-0, 4-0): 17.6% (up 3.1%)
Georgia (6-1, 4-1): 13.9% (up 3.4%)
Oklahoma (6-1, 2-1): 10.4% (up 2.7%)
Texas (5-2, 2-1): 7.7% (up 1.2%)
Missouri (6-1, 2-1): 7.4% (up 1.5%)
Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1): 7.1% (down 9.1%)
Vanderbilt (6-1, 2-1): 5.5% (up 1.8%)

Alabama indeed eased out in front thanks to Saturday’s 37-20 win over Tennessee. Who knows how the game might have played out if Zabien Brown hadn’t picked off a Joey Aguilar pass at the goal line and taken it 99 yards for a touchdown as the first half expired — instead of a 16-14 or 16-10 halftime lead for Bama, it was 23-7. But the Tide once again got the two things they have come to rely on: red zone stops from the defense and just the right plays from Ty Simpson.

In Bama’s current run of four straight wins over ranked foes, opposing teams have scored touchdowns on just seven of 14 red zone trips, with three turnovers, a turnover on downs and only one field goal among the seven failures. The Tide are just 58th in yards allowed per play and 66th in success rate allowed, but they’re 22nd in scoring defense. That’s a tenuous balance, and we’ll see what happens against Oklahoma or anyone they might face in the SEC championship game or CFP, but it’s working well for now.

It works even better since they know they’ll get what they need from Simpson. That Week 1 defeat at Florida State grows more baffling by the week, but since then Simpson ranks seventh in Total QBR with a 74% completion rate, a 16-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and a 52% success rate on third and fourth down (national average on those downs: 40%). He’s also the only guy this season who has outdueled Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia. Simpson has earned our trust, although I’m still willing to cast a suspicious glance toward the defense.

Trust: Georgia’s toughness

I’m also struggling to trust quite a few aspects of Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs. They struggled to run efficiently against either of the two good defenses they’ve faced, they continue to lack in the big-play department, and while they’ve played against three top-15 offenses, per SP+, we still expect a Smart defense to rank higher than 49th in points allowed per drive or 48th in success rate allowed.

Still, you have to admire the Dawgs’ flair for the moment. They spotted Tennessee a 14-point lead in the first quarter, Auburn a 10-point lead in the first, Alabama a 14-point lead in the second and Ole Miss a nine-point lead in the third, and yet, the only team they lost to was Bama. (And it looked like they were going to win that one, too, until Bama’s defensive red zone magic struck.) Against Auburn’s awesome defense in Week 7, they eventually figured out a way to eke out 20 points and a road win; against Ole Miss’ awesome offense in Week 8, they allowed five straight touchdowns to start the game but stayed within pecking distance and then suddenly locked the Rebels all the way down. Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss went 1-for-10 passing during a fourth quarter in which Georgia outgained the Rebels 143-13 and outscored them 17-0. The result: yet another comeback win 43-35.

When the Bulldogs need to score 40-plus, they do it. When they need to hold an opponent to 10, they do it. It would be awfully boring if, in this year of epic SEC parity — when Texas A&M, Missouri, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt all have at least a puncher’s chance at the crown — we got another Georgia-Bama conference title game. But it’s pretty damn hard to think we won’t at this point, isn’t it?

Don’t trust: Arch Manning and Texas’ offense

I called Ohio State’s defense the best in the country above, and I certainly believe it is. SP+, however, still leans toward Texas, which held the Buckeyes to 14 points in the season opener and has allowed only one opponent to score more than that. The Longhorns rank fourth in points allowed per drive and 10th in yards allowed per play — quite possibly the second-best defense in the sport to my eyes.

Despite the defense, however, and despite a potentially key tiebreaker win over Oklahoma last week, Texas is only fifth on the SEC title odds list above, just ahead of Missouri and behind those Sooners. You already know the reason, of course: an offense that ranks 74th in yards per play, 88th in points per drive, 101st in success rate (80th rushing, 110th passing) and 116th in percentage of plays gaining zero or negative yards. On 46.5% of their pass attempts this season, they’d have been as well or better off just spiking the ball into the ground; that “spike factor” ranks 120th.

I don’t bring this up to heap further scorn on Arch Manning, or at least not to specifically do that. The preseason Heisman favorite hasn’t gotten any of the help he needed this season, and he certainly didn’t in Saturday night’s 16-13 win over Kentucky. His running backs averaged 3.3 yards per carry in Lexington, and his first 25 pass attempts produced just eight completions and three sacks. He did complete four straight short passes late, but Texas gained just 179 yards against a Wildcats defense that allowed 461 yards to Eastern Michigan in mid-September.

The Longhorns survived when Kentucky foolishly called two straight halfback dives into the teeth of Texas’ enormous defensive line and turned the ball over on downs in overtime, setting up Mason Shipley’s game-winning field goal. But this offense is still failing to clear an increasingly low bar. It has underachieved against SP+ projections in five of seven games and needed a special teams touchdown to overachieve its projection against Oklahoma last week.

No matter how good the defense may be, it’s going to face four of the nation’s top 15 offenses (per SP+) in its last five games, and the offense is going to face three defenses that grade out better than Kentucky’s. If it can’t help Manning, and Manning can’t help himself and start to improve — a hard thing to do midstream, especially when your issues seem to be pretty fundamental things such as footwork, pocket timing and accuracy — then how exactly does Texas end up with a playoff résumé? Things could be worse; the Horns could have easily lost to UK. But it’s hard to see things getting much better.

I’m not sure my trust is going to be enough. At 5-2 with no serious résumé-building win opportunities left, it sure seems like Notre Dame will be at or near the bottom of a pile of hypothetical two-loss teams even if it gets to 10-2 at the end of the regular season. There’s no shame in losing to Miami and Texas A&M — teams that are a combined 12-1 — by four combined points, as the Irish did, and their list of quality wins just isn’t going to end up being all that impressive even if USC, Saturday night’s victim, keeps playing well.

For this conversation, however, that doesn’t really matter. All that matters is that this is one of the five best teams in the country right now, and I’m growing to trust the Irish considerably. (Well, everything but their place-kicking anyway.) They’ve overachieved against SP+ projections over the last five games by an average of 14.9 points. And even though quarterback CJ Carr had a poor game Saturday — 16-for-26 for 136 yards, a TD, an interception, a sack and a 32.8 Total QBR — they still overachieved against their offensive projections thanks to a 228-yard rushing performance from Jeremiyah Love, his first genuine breakout game of the year, and an 87-yard performance with a kick return score from backup Jadarian Price.

Combine a high-end offense with a defense that seems to have completely solved itself over the last month, and you’ve got a hell of a team. After allowing 32.7 points per game in Chris Ash’s first three games as coordinator, the Irish have since allowed just 12.8 per game despite playing USC (first in offensive SP+), Arkansas (fifth) and Boise State (25th), and despite dealing with injuries to stars such as corner Leonard Moore and tackle Gabriel Rubio. USC had scored at least 31 points in every game before Saturday and came to South Bend averaging 8.3 yards per play; the Trojans managed just 24 points and 5.6 yards per play against the Irish.

Thanks primarily to the early defensive struggles, the Irish were 21st in SP+ after three games. They’re now sixth after seven games. Only one remaining game is projected within 17 points, per SP+, and if they make the CFP they could do some serious damage. We’ll have to see what fate has in store in that regard.

This week in SP+

The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)

Moving up

Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:

Temple: up 4.5 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 88th to 72nd)

Florida International: up 4.3 points (from 130th to 124th)

James Madison: up 3.6 points (from 59th to 47th)

Central Michigan: up 3.5 points (from 125th to 114th)

Oregon State: up 3.5 points (from 114th to 106th)

After losing to Delaware and UConn by a combined 89-26, FIU unleashed a nearly perfect performance out of nowhere Tuesday, heading up to Western Kentucky and winning 25-6. James Madison, meanwhile, knocked Old Dominion out in a delightful Saturday slugfest, scoring 42 straight points to turn a 27-21 deficit into a 63-27 rout.

But we need to talk about Temple for a second: The Owls hadn’t topped three wins since 2019, watching their meticulously rebuilt program crumble to the ground in the 2020s. But then they hired KC Keeler. It might have been the best hire of last offseason. The 66-year-old has them at 4-3 following Saturday’s 49-14 blowout of Charlotte.

Temple hasn’t had the athleticism to keep up with high-level power-conference opponents — Oklahoma and Georgia Tech beat the Owls by a combined 87-27 — but against teams in their weight class, they’re 4-1, having overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 19.4 points and having lost only to unbeaten Navy in the last minute. What a turnaround.

Here are the five power-conference teams that rose the most:

Minnesota: up 3.1 points (from 57th to 49th)

UCF: up 3.0 points (from 58th to 51st)

Cincinnati: up 1.8 points (from 30th to 25th)

Stanford: up 1.7 points (from 108th to 101st)

North Carolina: up 1.6 points (from 103rd to 98th)

Minnesota sure does love playing Nebraska. The Gophers pummeled the Huskers on Friday night 24-6 to move to 5-2 on the season. Without that ghastly egg-laying loss at Cal in Week 3, they’d be ranked and looking at a potential 9-3 finish or so.

Moving down

Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:

UTSA: down 5.0 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 61st to 71st)

Tennessee: down 4.0 points (from 11th to 18th)

Rutgers: down 3.8 points (from 50th to 67th)

Nebraska: down 3.7 points (from 20th to 26th)

West Virginia: down 3.6 points (from 80th to 97th)

Memphis: down 3.5 points (from 24th to 30th)

Northern Illinois: down 3.3 points (from 118th to 127th)

South Carolina: down 3.3 points (from 40th to 52nd)

USC: down 2.9 points (from 14th to 16th)

Clemson: down 2.8 points (from 39th to 46th)

There’s no great shame in losing at Alabama, but Tennessee’s slippage here has been a long time coming: The Vols have now underachieved against projections for five straight games, and they’ve done so by double digits in each of the past two. The defense, which finished sixth in defensive SP+ last season, has underachieved in every game and is down to 44th, and while the offense propped the Vols up for a while, it has also underachieved the past two weeks. Continued underachievement at that level would put them in danger of losing at Kentucky this coming week.

Who won the Heisman this week?

I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, nine for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?

Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:

1. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (26-for-31 passing for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 59 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Ole Miss).

2. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (24-for-28 passing for 332 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 18 non-sack rushing yards against Michigan State).

3. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (24 carries for 228 yards and a touchdown, plus 37 receiving yards against USC).

4. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (36-for-42 passing for 393 yards and 4 touchdowns against Wisconsin).

5. Alonza Barnett III, James Madison (17-for-25 passing for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 165 non-sack rushing yards and 4 TDs against Old Dominion).

6. Taylen Green, Arkansas (19-for-32 passing for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 131 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Texas A&M).

7. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14-for-22 passing for 160 yards and a touchdown, plus 94 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against LSU).

8. Colin Simmons, Texas (4 tackles, 3 sacks and 1 forced fumble against Kentucky).

9. Dylan Riley, Boise State (15 carries for 201 yards and a touchdown against UNLV).

10. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (14-for-21 passing for 205 yards, plus 120 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Duke).

It was tempting to just give each of the top three names a share of No. 1 for the week. Love’s domination of USC was vital to Notre Dame’s playoff hopes (and really fun to watch), and Mendoza was ridiculous yet again — his Total QBR has now topped 90.0 in four of the past five games, and he’s completing 74% of his passes with a 21-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio. Kurtis Rourke was so good for the Hoosiers last season, and Mendoza is raising the bar.

I had to give No. 1 to Stockton, though. He had to be great for the Dawgs to keep up with Ole Miss, and when the Georgia defense finally showed up, Stockton raised his game even further. Awesome stuff.

Honorable mention:

Byrum Brown, USF (14-for-24 passing for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 123 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Florida Atlantic).

Zabien Brown, Alabama (seven tackles and a 99-yard pick-six against Tennessee).

Anthony Hankerson, Oregon State (25 carries for 204 yards and 4 touchdowns against Lafayette).

Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (18 carries for 133 yards, plus 90 receiving yards against UTSA).

Brad Jackson, Texas State (26-for-38 passing for 444 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 77 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Marshall).

Nick Minicucci, Delaware (32-for-50 passing for 422 yards and a touchdown, plus 20 non-sack rushing yards against Jacksonville State).

Dante Moore, Oregon (15-for-20 passing for 290 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 49 non-sack rushing yards against Rutgers).

Kejon Owens, Florida International (22 carries for 195 yards and a touchdown, plus seven receiving yards against Western Kentucky).

(By the way, a quick shoutout to Curry College’s Montie Quinn, who broke the Division III record with 522 rushing yards … on 20 carries! The Colonels beat Nichols 71-27, and his seven touchdowns alone gained 399 yards, including jaunts of 85, 84, 76, 64 and 58 yards.)

Through eight weeks, here are your points leaders:

1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points)
2. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27)
3T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (19)
3T. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (19)
3T. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (19)
6T. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (16)
6T. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (16)
8. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (15)
9. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14)
10. Jayden Maiava, USC (12)

For the first time all season, the points race and the current Heisman betting odds have begun to match up. Six of the above names are also in the top 10 per ESPN BET: Mendoza (No. 1 betting favorite), Simpson (No. 2), Sayin (No. 3), Stockton (No. 5), Pavia (No. 8) and Chambliss (No. 9T).

My 10 favorite games of the weekend

1 and 2. Stanford 20, Florida State 13 and California 21, North Carolina 18 (Friday). We had matching last-minute goal-line stands in the Bay Area, though Stanford-FSU gets the edge for adding in a mini-Hail Mary (to get to the Stanford 9 with two seconds left) and an untimed down following a pass interference call (which followed an errant snap). And are we sure Gavin Sawchuk didn’t make it to the end zone? One of the most unique finishes you’ll see.

Cal, meanwhile, merely forced a fumble millimeters before the end zone with four minutes left. Boring.

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0:48

Cal forces UNC fumble at the goal line for a touchback

Cal’s Brent Austin punches the ball out of Nathan Leacock’s hands at the goal line to force a fumble and subsequent touchback.

3. FCS: East Texas A&M 52, Incarnate Word 45. With 6:45 left, East Texas A&M took its first lead 45-42 after trailing by as many as 21 earlier in the game.

With 1:55 left, UIW’s Will Faris hit a 57-yard field goal to tie the game at 45-45.

With 0:27 left, ETAMU not only scored the winning points but did so with one of the most physical runs of the week.

Hot damn, EJ Oakmon.

4. Louisville 24, No. 2 Miami 21 (Friday). Louisville’s offense hasn’t carried its weight at times this year, but the Cardinals scripted out two early touchdowns and got a beautiful, 36-yard burst from Chris Bell. The defense took it from there. T.J. Capers‘ interception — the Cardinals’ fourth of Carson Beck — clinched the upset and sent the ACC race into chaos.

5. FCS: Lamar 23, UT Rio Grande Valley 21. UT Rio Grande Valley is 5-2 in its debut season; the Vaqueros have acquitted themselves well, and they almost took down a ranked Lamar team in Beaumont with two fourth-quarter touchdowns. But Ben Woodard nailed a 57-yard field goal with 1:03 left, and Mar Mar Evans picked off a desperate Eddie Lee Marburger pass with 14 seconds left. Lamar survived.

6. No. 9 Georgia 43, No. 5 Ole Miss 35. I almost just assumed that Ole Miss would score late and send this one to overtime. Alas. A heavyweight matchup in a heavyweight environment.

7. Tulane 24, Army 17. I reflexively made the Chris Berman “WHOOOP” sound when this happened.

8. Arizona State 26, No. 7 Texas Tech 22. Texas Tech backup quarterback Will Hammond finally looked like a backup, but the Red Raiders overcame a number of miscues to take the lead with two minutes left, only for ASU to respond with a 10-play, 75-yard drive capped by Raleek Brown‘s last-minute touchdown.

9. TCU 42, Baylor 36. One of many games with lengthy weather delays, this one almost saw a three-minute, 21-point comeback. TCU led 42-21, but Keaton Thomas returned a fumble for a touchdown, Sawyer Robertson completed a 35-yard touchdown to Kole Wilson, and Baylor recovered an onside kick with 30 seconds left. But Namdi Obiazor picked Robertson off near midfield, and the Horned Frogs survived.

10. UAB 31, No. 22 Memphis 24. You get points for creativity, Memphis. After Greg Desrosiers Jr. had his game-tying, 41-yard touchdown disallowed — replay determined he was down just short of the goal line — Memphis proceeded to commit two false starts and a delay of game, and backup quarterback AJ Hill‘s fourth-down pass to Cortez Braham Jr. was incomplete by inches. I’ve never seen a team lose a game like that.

11. Division II: Benedict 31, Edward Waters 27.

12. UCLA 20, Maryland 17.

13. Houston 31, Arizona 28.

14. FCS: Chattanooga 42, ETSU 38.

15. Marshall 40, Texas State 37 (2OT).

16. No. 16 Missouri 23, Auburn 17 (OT).

17. Iowa 25, Penn State 24.

18. Division III: No. 14 John Carroll 31, No. 11 DePauw 27.

19. NAIA: Faulkner 36, Cumberlands 35.

20. Florida 23, Mississippi State 21

It says a lot about the week that we had two SEC overtime games, and neither made the top 15.

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Takeaways: Notre Dame and Arizona State make comeback statements

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4 hours ago

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October 21, 2025

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Takeaways: Notre Dame and Arizona State make comeback statements

Oct 20, 2025, 08:25 AM ET

Week 8 had its share of surprises as four Associated Press Top 25 teams fell to unranked opponents.

One of the upsets of the week came from Arizona State as it handed then-No. 7 Texas Tech its first loss of the season. The Red Raiders fell to 6-1, 3-1 in the Big 12, and dropped to fourth in the conference standings. The Sun Devils, on the other hand, are bouncing back from two losses this season, looking for back-to-back Big 12 title game appearances and a potential spot in the College Football Playoff.

Notre Dame is another team making a comeback this season. After an 0-2 start, the Fighting Irish are on a five-game winning streak after a big rivalry win over then-No. 20 USC on Saturday. And Vanderbilt — one of the hottest teams in the sport — is showing just how different this season has been.

Which team is Arizona State’s toughest matchup ahead as it looks to be a Big 12 title contender? After a tough start to the season, can Notre Dame continue its hot streak and make another run at the CFP? What accomplishments has Vanderbilt crossed off through Week 8?

Our college football experts break down key storylines and takeaways from the week.

Jump to:
Freeman at it again | ASU’s road back
Vanderbilt’s rise | Pitt’s freshman QB

Marcus Freeman is the comeback king

No win was more impactful to the College Football Playoff picture than Notre Dame‘s season-saving victory against USC on Saturday. For the second straight year, Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman has pulled his team out of an absolute pit and back into the hunt for a national title. Last year, it was the baffling Week 2 home loss to Northern Illinois that was followed by 13 straight wins and a spot in the national championship game. Most teams don’t play 13 games in a season, let alone win that many in a row.

Now, the Irish have won five straight after their 0-2 start and are back on the selection committee’s radar. Yes, there is still work to be done, and yes, the Irish remain in must-win mode for the rest of the season. But USC was their toughest opponent left. And Notre Dame continues to improve every week, particularly on defense. If that continues, Notre Dame won’t just be a playoff team — it will be capable of making another run at winning it. Freeman already wrote the blueprint. — Heather Dinich

Don’t forget about Arizona State

After a close loss to Mississippi State and an embarrassing 43-10 loss at the hands of Utah, defending Big 12 champion Arizona State appeared to be on its way to a disappointing encore season following their surprise College Football Playoff appearance last year.

In reality, Kenny Dillingham’s team just needed to feel like an underdog again.

Texas Tech came into Tempe undefeated with its own CFP hopes. But the Sun Devils, led by quarterback Sam Leavitt, who had his best performance of the season, outlasted the Red Raiders 26-22 to put themselves right back into the mix for the Big 12.

Dillingham, as he’s prone to do, responded appropriately: by producing another iconic postgame interview moment and then dancing with his team in the locker room.

“Good programs don’t turn left or right. They just turn a little bit,” Dillingham said of how ASU dealt with the blowout loss to Utah. “We didn’t turn the ship a different direction. We just moved it five to seven degrees. The guys responded.”

Arizona State is now tied for third place in the conference, but the Sun Devils are sitting in a very comfortable position. They don’t play the two teams above them (BYU and Cincinnati, who do play each other) and currently don’t have another ranked team on the rest of their schedule. Iowa State in Ames next week is probably their toughest matchup remaining. The roadmap back to Dallas is there for the taking. — Paolo Uggetti

Vanderbilt’s rise the latest evidence that 2025 is different

In a span of five days, Indiana beat an AP top-5 road opponent for the first time, then locked in coach Curt Cignetti to a $93.25 million contract. Two days after the Cignetti deal was announced, Vanderbilt beat LSU 31-24 in an outcome that surprised no one who has watched the Commodores (and, for that matter, LSU) play this season. Welcome to college football in 2025.

Vanderbilt is 6-1 for the first time since 1950, beat LSU for the first time since 1990 and has two wins against AP top-15 opponents for the first time in the same season. The Commodores on Sunday received their first AP top-10 ranking since 1947. But again, when you study Vandy and especially the offense, under the direction of quarterback Diego Pavia and coordinator Tim Beck, it’s difficult to be shocked by any of this.

Clark Lea has possibly forever changed the course of Vanderbilt’s program by bringing in the New Mexico State crew: Pavia, Beck, chief consultant Jerry Kill and others. Vanderbilt will host ESPN’s “College GameDay” this week and face Missouri in a game with legitimate College Football Playoff implications. That’s where we are with college football in 2025, and what a place to be. — Adam Rittenberg

True freshman QB Heintschel sparking Panthers

After back-to-back losses to Backyard Brawl rival West Virginia and Louisville, Pittsburgh’s season appeared to be heading south.

But then coach Pat Narduzzi made a quarterback change, swapping incumbent starter Eli Holstein for true freshman Mason Heintschel.

The Panthers have since reeled off three consecutive wins, including Saturday’s 30-13 victory at Syracuse — with Heintschel becoming the first Pitt true freshman quarterback to win three straight since Pat Bostick in 2007, according to ESPN Research.

Since taking over, the dual-threat Heintschel ranks eighth with 787 passing yards and fifth in rushing with 141 yards among Power 4 quarterbacks.

The Panthers (5-2, 3-1 ACC) are hanging around in the wide-open ACC, with a series of big opportunities looming at the end of the season.

Pitt closes the season with consecutive tilts against No. 13 Notre Dame, No. 7 Georgia Tech and No. 9 Miami. — Jake Trotter

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NHL rink report: Matthew Schaefer’s hot start, Tusky’s debut, games of the week

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October 21, 2025

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NHL rink report: Matthew Schaefer's hot start, Tusky's debut, games of the week

Matthew Schaefer has had quite the debut in the NHL, hasn’t he? He has scored a point in every game he has played — including a fun first NHL goal. ESPN analyst John Tortorella noted that he reminds him of Hall of Famer Chris Pronger with his skating; that’s not bad at all for the New York Islanders‘ first overall pick from the 2025 draft.

The debut has also been historical. Schaefer started his NHL career with a five-game point streak (and counting). That’s the second-longest point streak by any defenseman from the start of their career, behind only Marek Zidlicky (six games) in 2003-04. He is the first 18-year-old defenseman in NHL history to achieve that (every other 18-year-old on the list was a forward).

His first NHL goal was electric. There was a big scrum in front on an Islanders power play. Amid the chaos, the puck was lost, and Schaefer barged in from the blue line and poked the puck that was barely visible under Logan Thompson‘s pads into the net in a seamless motion. Among his many other traits, the hockey IQ is quite high.

Schaefer turned 18 on Sept. 5; yes, just over a month ago. He is the youngest defenseman to make his NHL debut, to record a point in his NHL debut, the youngest NHL player on record to score his first goal on the power play, and the youngest player to play 25-plus minutes in a game.

He’s also garnering a lot of early “Isles franchise player of the future” nods from the Islanders faithful. It might be a bit early to be doling out accolades like that. But Matthew Schaefer is definitely fun to watch, and the best is yet to come.

Jump ahead:
Games of the week
What I liked this weekend
Hart Trophy candidates
Social post of the week

Biggest games of the week

7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

Obviously the biggest game of the week from a storyline perspective is Brad Marchand returning for his first game in Boston. He was injured the last time the Panthers visited Boston, so all of the pomp and circumstance will come during this game.

Marchand is a banner- and statue-level guy in Beantown, without question. I expect an extended ovation, then the fans booing him when he levels David Pastrnak in a scrum.

7 p.m. ET | ESPN+

Two playoff teams from last season. Star power aplenty, with Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt on one side, against Auston Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares on the other.

But there’s another wrinkle to this one. Greg Wyshynski and I created a brand new “North American Hockey Championship” title belt for our digital show “The Drop,” and it’s currently held by me thanks to the Canadian victory in last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off. This is how title defenses work: For every Canada vs. USA international game, men’s or women’s, the title is automatically on the line. In addition, the challenger can choose any NHL game with any sort of Canada vs. USA connection for the belt to be up for grabs.

In this case it’s easy — an American team visiting a Canadian one — and it’s the team for which Wysh grew up rooting against the one for which I grew up rooting. If the Devils win, then the U.S. is the new North American hockey champion. If the Leafs win, Canada retains.

Other key matchups this week

10 p.m. ET | ESPN+

10 p.m. ET | ESPN

9 p.m. ET | ESPN+

9 p.m. ET | ESPN+

6 p.m. ET | ESPN+

What I liked this weekend

Friday was a big day for college hockey. On paper, Boston University vs. Michigan State was already a heavyweight matchup — 34 NHL prospects with 20 NHL teams were represented in the game. The game was broadcast on ESPN2, which is terrific for a matchup so early in the college hockey season. This is the dawn of a new era of NCAA on the ice, with the rules surrounding CHL players changing, and the continued growth and interest in the college game.

The Spartans led 2-0 through two periods, but BU fought back, and the game went to overtime tied 3-3. BU’s Cole Eiserman (Islanders prospect) appeared to win it, but MSU’s Shane Vansaghi (Flyers) swept the puck away before it crossed the goal line. The Spartans brought it back the other way, and Matt Basgall (undrafted) scored off a feed from Ryker Lee (Predators).

Also, count me in as a fan of the NHL’s newest mascot, Tusky. I like Tusky’s overall look, and particularly his dark blue mohawk. I thought the introduction of breaking through blocks of foam ice was cute, and the name is easy for kids to say. I’m a massive fan of mascots — they are critical to game presentation and in-arena fun, to social content, and especially to helping kids and new hockey fans make core memories. I look forward to seeing what fun things the Mammoth have planned for Tusky.

MVP candidates if the season ended today…

Vegas center Jack Eichel leads the league with 15 points. He had some support for the Hart among our ESPN hockey crew this preseason, and could remain a top candidate all season (particularly if the scoring keeps up).

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Jack Eichel nets goal for Golden Knights

Jack Eichel lights the lamp for Golden Knights

Speaking of lighting up the scoreboard, Ottawa Senators forward Shane Pinto has seven goals through six games, with all seven of them at even strength. The Senators will need to find other sources of scoring while Brady Tkachuk is out.

Given that goaltender Connor Hellebuyck won the Hart last season, we can’t forget the netminders this season either. You would have to take a long look at New York Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin. Despite going 2-2-1, he boasts a .962 save percentage and is allowing only one goal per game on average. Scott Wedgewood might win out among goalies, however, as he has started the season 5-0-1 with a .938 save percentage, saving 136 of 145 shots for the first-place Colorado Avalanche.

And hey, if the season ended today, I’d even toss Matthew Schaefer‘s name in the mix based on all the ridiculous stats I highlighted earlier.

Hockey social media post of the week

One of my favorite people on social media is “Kickball Dad” — especially when the Miami Dolphins do something to annoy him, or he’s zipping around the backyard on his mower. He might also be the first person in recorded history to shoot hockey pucks on the beach in the Bahamas.

He’s also a massive Devils fan and made a video going to the home opener:

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